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SC2 World Ranking, Part 10: The Hottest Players

Blogs > Entirety
Post a Reply
Entirety
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
1423 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-17 17:12:59
August 16 2012 18:10 GMT
#1
Part 9: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=360810

+ Show Spoiler [Introduction] +
Lately, I've heard lots of discussion about a StarCraft 2 World Ranking based on tournament results. Essentially, the concept is that you assign points for tournament rankings. Unfortunately, no matter how it is done, the ranking will always be subjective. One person may say that the GSL is worth as much as every other tournament combined, whereas another person may say that the GSL is worth about as much as a MLG.

How do I get around this "subjective" problem? Here's my answer: I'll let you choose the values!

That's right, I'm starting a project to create a World Ranking. The cool thing is that you get to choose how many points each victory is worth and more.


Now updated with "Ratios"! Please check the "How to Use" section for more info. (Current Size: 200 KB)

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/43612415/World Ranking.xlsm

+ Show Spoiler [How to Use] +
The first sheet is known as "Values" and it is the only spreadsheet you should edit. Only edit the highlighted areas!

I have now changed the spreadsheet to work on ratios. First, start with the point ratios. Simply enter the points that you think a 1st place is worth compared to a 2nd place, a 3rd place, a 4th place, etc.

For example, if I enter 1,000 points for 1st place and 500 points for 2nd place, that means 1st place is worth double the amount of points as 2nd place. If another person thinks that 1st place is worth 3 times as much as 2nd place, he/she can put 1st place as 300 points and 2nd place at 100 points.

The section underneath that (highlighted with a darker shade, containing 3rd/4th, 5th/6th, etc.) are optional. You can choose the values yourself if you want. If you do not, they work using averages (3rd/4th averages the points you gave for 3rd place and 4th place).

Next, enter the tournament ratios. For example, if I enter 10 points for GSL and 4 points for MLG, that means GSL will give out 2.5x as many points as MLG. Use these ratios to gauge relative importance of the tournaments. If you think MLG is worth half as much as GSL, make MLG 5 points and GSL 10 points, and so on.

The points are calculated by multiplying the tournament ratios with the point ratios. If I put 100 points for 1st place and 10 points for GSL, it will multiply the two values and give you 1,000 points for GSL 1st place. Here's another example:

Let's say I choose these values: 1st place = 1,000 points, 2nd place = 500 points. GSL = 10 points, MLG = 4 points.

GSL 1st = 1,000*10 = 10,000 points
GSL 2nd = 500*10 = 5,000 points
MLG 1st = 1,000*4 = 4,000 points
MLG 2nd = 500*4 = 2,000 points

The "Sort" button will automatically sort the lists in order of points.

The sheet known as "Rankings" has the ultimate ranking which you are looking for.


+ Show Spoiler [Regression] +
One thing that is very popular in point rankings such as this is the concept of regression. Basically, your points degrade over time, meaning that a GSL today is worth more than a GSL one year ago. I completely agree with this idea, so I've included this.

The sheet "Values" has a "Regression Factor" which you can edit. Right now, the spreadsheet only supports simple regression - exponential decay. Here's how the regression model works:

New Point Value = Original Point Value * (Regression Factor)^(# of Days since the Tournament)

The value I prefer is "0.99769217652702". If you use this value, the number of points will be halved after 300 days (so 10,000 points becomes 5,000 points), the number of points will be 25% after 600 days (so 10,000 points becomes 2,500 points), and so on.

You may choose your own value! If you do not wish to use regression (you think a GSL from one year ago is worth exactly the same as a GSL today), then simply use the value "1".

Some regression values:
50% after 120 days: 0.99424042381754732964045049128729
50% after 180 days: 0.99615658722058
50% after 300 days: 0.99769217652702


However, this is not completed yet! In fact, I need your help!

+ Show Spoiler [Checklist] +
Red Bull LAN
WCG
WCS
HomeStory
OSL
ESWC
BlizzCon
GSL Code A
Other major tournaments/one-off tournaments (such as IPL Hot Import Nights, GSL All-Stars Invitational, MLG Global Invitational, etc.)
Tournament rankings without prize pool (such as MLG 9th place)


+ Show Spoiler [My Progress] +
+ Show Spoiler +
Part 1: I started this project on Google Spreadsheets and added the three GSL Open Seasons. NesTea topped the rankings with his GSL Open Season win.

Part 2: I added all of the GSL Code S seasons including the World Championship, Super Tournament, and Blizzard Cup. I also moved the project to Microsoft Excel, which is much much faster than Google Spreadsheets. With the addition of more GSL seasons, the GSL king (also known as Mvp) topped the rankings.

Part 3: I added IPL. I changed the spreadsheet into a macro-enabled spreadsheet and protected each sheet except "Values". The addition of IPL allowed Squirtle to break the top ten!

Part 4: I added MLG. MLG gave a lot of points to DongRaeGu and MarineKing, and they rose many places. MC, MMA, and Leenock also rose some places, while NesTea didn't gain any points.

Part 5: I added DreamHack. A high placement in DreamHack allowed Genius to overtake aLive and break into the top 10.


Part 6: I added IEM. Also, I changed the "Values" system to work with ratios rather than point values for each "cluster" of tournaments. Ratios are more flexible in general.

Part 7: I added Top 16 for each DreamHack tournament (before, only the placements with prize money were included in the ranking). Also, I added the NASL, causing PuMa and Stephano to enter the rankings.

Part 8: I added Top 16 for each MLG Arena this year. I added the Iron Squid, giving lots of points to MMA.

Part 9: I added TSL, not much accomplished today.

Part 10: I added Assembly and Seed falls in the rankings as Stephano, PuMa, and Polt gain significant amounts of points.


+ Show Spoiler [How You Can Help!] +
I need lists of tournament rankings. First, I need the name of the tournament, and the date it ended. Then, I need a list of players starting from 1st place until last place. Here's an example:

GSL Open Season 1
10/2/2010

FruitDealer
RainBOw
Ensnare
LiveForever
HongUn
InCa
Maka
TricKsteR
anypro
Check
Clide
Hyperdub
LegalMind
Nettie
San
TOP
IdrA
JookTo
justfake
Keeping
Maru
Polt
TaeJa
Tankboy
TheWinD
TLO
ZanDarke
Zenio
Aory
Artosis
Astraea
BrEEzE
Cella
Cezanne
Chipmunk
Dos
FoCuS
Genius
Gerrard
GuineaPig
Hansin
JiTaeHoon
jjonga
JSL
Junwi
LosirA
MC
miso
Myth
NesTea
New
RenieHouR
SengKun
Sopia
Spunky
SSoja
TorcH
Wind
Xian
Yong

My next goal is foreign tournaments. Do not worry about Code A yet!


Finally, here is my own ranking:

+ Show Spoiler +
1. 26,932 Mvp
2. 26,043 MC
3. 23,236 DongRaeGu
4. 22,110 MMA
5. 17,063 NesTea
6. 14,554 MarineKing
7. 12,469 Polt
8. 10,882 Stephano
9. 10,581 PuMa
10. 9,803 Seed

I added Assembly which had a very significant impact on the rankings. First of all, MC gained a lot of points and he's so close to surpassing Mvp! Nooo!

Polt, Stephano, and PuMa gained lots of points and surpassed Seed, leaving Seed barely able to stay in the top 10. Stephano surpassed PuMa in this shuffle as well.

Unfortunately, TaeJa barely missed the cutoff... he's rank #11. His recent Assembly win gave him lots of points because it's so recent.


Finally, I added Assembly as promised.

One thing that I found interesting was that the addition of Assembly brought Seed down to #10 and TaeJa up to #11. These two are the hottest players right now, and Seed managed to break into the top 10. However, he hasn't been able to infiltrate the top ranks, such as ranks 4-7. This raises an interesting question: how should we weigh the accomplished ones with the hottest ones?

Obviously, Seed can't even touch the list of accomplishments Mvp has. However, since his form is looking so good recently with a GSL win, he definitely deserves to be in the ranking somehow. In fact, I believe that everyone who wins a GSL should be able to break into the Top 10 for a month or a week or so. This is looking more and more unlikely though, as Seed is the lowest at 9,803 points. One GSL win is 10,000 points, so it's becoming harder to reach the top 10 with one win.

My conclusion is that this ranking should not even try to address the hottest players right now. This ranking is based on achievements, and it should accurately reflect the most accomplished players. Mvp and MC at the top certainly fits this, with 4 GSL wins and a slew of foreign tournament wins respectively. On the other hand, the issue of the "hottest player right now" can be answered through the TeamLiquid ELO system.

The list can simply be used to define one's legacy in StarCraft 2. If we were to define the list as "your legacy", simply set the regression factor to 1 and it would become a great representation of all your tournament victories and placements.

(by the way, is anyone else thrilled to see Mvp winning at IEM?)

My question for you: What tournament should I add next?

Part 11: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=361272

****
IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431
Luepert
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States1933 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-16 19:06:46
August 16 2012 19:06 GMT
#2
Oh dang, MVP is barely holding on. I guess he just has to win IEM at gamescon to secure his spot.
esports
Nouar
Profile Joined May 2009
France3270 Posts
August 16 2012 19:09 GMT
#3
I really don't think you have enough decay. minus 50% after 6 months would be better for me.
NoiR
Entirety
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
1423 Posts
August 16 2012 19:13 GMT
#4
Yeah, let's just hope Mvp can take the whole thing home. :D

Nouar, the values are completely up to you! Let's assume 6 months = 180 days. To do a decay with 50% after 6 months, just download the spreadsheet and replace the Regression Factor with 0.99615658722058 to create your own ranking that you prefer.
IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431
virpi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Germany3598 Posts
August 16 2012 19:47 GMT
#5
I really like your project, I was also thinking about doing something similar. Keep up the good work!
first we make expand, then we defense it.
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
August 16 2012 21:31 GMT
#6
I think the next one you should add is WCG 2011 grand finals, leave out the nationals as that would be way too much work.

Awesome project by the way
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-16 22:03:15
August 16 2012 22:02 GMT
#7
yeah with my regression of 0.9945 seed is 5th =]

can you unlock the "rankings" tab in the spreadsheet so we can rearrange that? :D
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Entirety
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
1423 Posts
August 16 2012 22:10 GMT
#8
The sheet "Rankings" should be sortable. Is there anything else you want to do with it?
IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431
Luepert
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States1933 Posts
August 16 2012 22:16 GMT
#9
On August 17 2012 06:31 Dodgin wrote:
I think the next one you should add is WCG 2011 grand finals, leave out the nationals as that would be way too much work.

Awesome project by the way


Do the Korean Nationals. For MVP's sake.
esports
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
August 16 2012 22:17 GMT
#10
On August 17 2012 07:16 Luepert wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 06:31 Dodgin wrote:
I think the next one you should add is WCG 2011 grand finals, leave out the nationals as that would be way too much work.

Awesome project by the way


Do the Korean Nationals. For MVP's sake.


That's so not fair to the other players though haha.
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
August 16 2012 23:10 GMT
#11
On August 17 2012 07:10 Entirety wrote:
The sheet "Rankings" should be sortable. Is there anything else you want to do with it?

hmm i can't sort it =/ haha it's ok dw, copy paste values into another spreadsheet and sort there :D
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Entirety
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
1423 Posts
August 16 2012 23:12 GMT
#12
Hmm have you tried the "Sort" button in the Values sheet? That Sort button sorts every single list in the spreadsheet...

Not sure why sorting using the Z->A button doesn't work, I checked the "Sort" option when protecting the sheet. o.O
IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-16 23:33:05
August 16 2012 23:19 GMT
#13
ohhh right
yeah i tried sort/filter haha

thanks~

anyway, my top 10:

+ Show Spoiler +
DongRaeGu 13,870
MC 12,936
Mvp 10,679
MMA 8,803
Seed 8,202
TaeJa 7,453
MarineKing 7,083
Stephano 6,956
NesTea 5,391
aLive 5,107


ooh a cool feature perhaps would be to add a ranking per day - sort of like, backtracking in the past to check how the rankings looked early 2011, or late 2011, etc :D not sure how easy that is to do, but would be awesome!
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Entirety
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
1423 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-16 23:32:08
August 16 2012 23:27 GMT
#14
I only count 9 people in your top 10.

If you set the regression value quite low (like 0.99 or something), then the list transforms into "the hottest player right now". That's what I like about this list!

Edit: Backtracking... hmm that would be quite difficult but perhaps it would be doable.

First, I would need to create some sort of "IF" statement. So you choose the date you want to backtrack to (say January 2011). Then, IF that date is before the date of the tournament, then that tournament gives 0 points. So if the tournament was played in February 2011 and you want to look at January 2011, that tournament gives 0 points...

Second, I would have to replace all the regression formulas. Right now, it uses TODAY(), which gives today's date. Maybe if I create a separate cell that says "Date you wish to look at" and the default is TODAY()... but you can change it to an earlier date. Then it could work...

Actually, it would not be too much work at all. I think the whole thing wouldn't take more than 20 minutes, or maybe 30 minutes if I find a bug.

It's definitely possible to add in the next version!
IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
August 16 2012 23:34 GMT
#15
haha, 10th is alive with 5107 :p
but yes wow you are epic with excel indeed!
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Entirety
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
1423 Posts
August 16 2012 23:56 GMT
#16
I just added that feature in.

For fun:

Ranking as of 1/1/2011 ("best of 2010" list)
+ Show Spoiler +
1 10,266 NesTea
2 10,087 MC
3 9,593 FruitDealer
4 6,436 RainBOw
5 5,675 MarineKing
6 5,120 Rain
7 4,182 Jinro
8 3,689 Naama
9 3,573 HongUn
10 3,529 IdrA


Ranking as of 1/1/2012 ("best of 2010-2011")
+ Show Spoiler +
1 29,798 Mvp
2 25,724 MMA
3 22,370 NesTea
4 21,114 MC
5 11,792 Polt
6 11,306 Leenock
7 11,173 DongRaeGu
8 11,070 PuMa
9 11,003 HuK
10 10,402 MarineKing


Keep giving me suggestions, I'll be happy to try my best to implement them. Suggestions are the main way that this project can grow (since I have no creative mind )
IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
August 17 2012 00:06 GMT
#17
next one: a graph of how players do!
like track mvp's points over his lifetime or something ;D and maybe a graph of the top 10 players, etc (if it doesn't get too confusing)
sounds hard :p but you are epic!
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Entirety
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
1423 Posts
August 17 2012 00:13 GMT
#18
Ooh that's a brilliant idea. I definitely won't start on that idea until tomorrow though. xD
It does sound rather hard... it's definitely doable, but I'm wondering what the file size will turn out to be. o.O
IMMvp (정종현) | Fan Club: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=211431
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