The Statistics of Extended Series in SC2

eauxlune

43 Posts

March 25 2012 23:00 GMT

While watching the MLG Winter Championship today, I decided to piece together some statistics of the Extended Series Format.

Below is a google doc of the statistics of every extended series that has occurred in SC2 MLG history up until this moment.
Google Doc

Some interesting statistics:

There have been 61 extended series prior to the match between DRG and MKP
47(77.0%) of extended series were won by the winner of the first series. Only 14*(23.0%) of the losers of the first series went on to win.
In 26(37.7%) of extended series, the original loser did not win a single map in the second series.
Only 4 times when the original series ended 2-0 did the loser of that series go on to win the extended series.
The Player who lost the first series won more maps in the extended series 61.7% of the time.
The loser of the first series lost the extended series while winning 2 or more maps in the extended series 7 times.

If anyone wants to check over my work go ahead, but I've double checked the numbers and such.

*- The match between Whitera and epGimix was not included for obvious reasons.

**Edited for awkward wording.

JethroTV

United States206 Posts

March 25 2012 23:07 GMT

Some interesting statistics indeed. The whole idea of extended series is certainly one that has been called into question a number of times.

It is pretty remarkable that only 4 times someone managed to make a complete comeback. That statistic there makes me feel like the extended series rule is in fact about as close to a death sentence as one can get without just being knocked out completely, if you went 0-2 in your first series.

dAPhREAk

Nauru12397 Posts

March 25 2012 23:31 GMT

Only 4 times when the original series ended 2-0 did the loser of that series go on to win the extended series.

and epic series they were. =D

Kupon3ss

時の回廊10066 Posts

March 25 2012 23:36 GMT

77% winrate is a total death sentence the same way that winning the first game of a bo3 is a death sentence, I feel that a bo3 format is inherently unfair because around 75% of them are won by the person that won the first game

in an completely uncorrelated and shocking discovery, around 75% of bo3s are also won by the player than won the second game, and a whopping 100% by the player that won the third, what kind of shit format is that?

Raithed

China7078 Posts

March 26 2012 00:15 GMT

I need names of where the loser crawled back to win...

red4ce

United States7313 Posts

March 26 2012 00:25 GMT

On March 26 2012 09:15 Raithed wrote:
I need names of where the loser crawled back to win...

Nada over Puma is the most unforgettable one. I can't think of the other 3 off the top of my head.

edit: nvm Nada came back from down 2-1. I don't even remember any of the 4

edit 2: I think MC vs Idra was one of them.

eauxlune

43 Posts

March 26 2012 00:50 GMT

On March 26 2012 09:15 Raithed wrote:
I need names of where the loser crawled back to win...

MC v Idra: MLG Columbus 2011
Demuslim v KawaiiRice: MLG Raleigh 2011
Davasian v Rohit91: MLG Raleigh 2011
DRG v Leenock: MLG Providence 2011

Count9

China10928 Posts

March 26 2012 01:15 GMT

The Player who lost the first series won more maps in the extended series 61.7% of the time.

......................................................

What are the stats for the loser of the first series going 2-0 or 2-1 before the series ended and then losing/winning? (i.e. the loser would've won the lower bracket game had there not been an extended series rule, and did they win anyways or lose?) I guess there's no good way to find that out without actually watching all the game or having individual game scores rather than just set scores.

Anyways, I know this isn't the thread to talk about how shitty/not shitty the system is, but ughhhhhhhhhhhhggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhlafjoaiwfjecdlc,mkestgfjutghdfjao;iwgjladmfj.,cvndgfkljgjadfkloifjlcmvdfjoiqawjeflasdmv,.dzsjfklodasf

eauxlune

43 Posts

March 26 2012 01:37 GMT

Actually that is somewhat possible. Since the winner of the first series starts the second with two games, anyone who won 2 or more maps during the extended series but lost, won those two games before their opponent.

That statistic is the last one. 7, or 11.4%.

Edit: OH I understand. I'll see if I can do that some time later this week.

Deleted User 123474

292 Posts

March 26 2012 02:39 GMT

#10

On March 26 2012 08:36 Kupon3ss wrote:
77% winrate is a total death sentence the same way that winning the first game of a bo3 is a death sentence, I feel that a bo3 format is inherently unfair because around 75% of them are won by the person that won the first game

in an completely uncorrelated and shocking discovery, around 75% of bo3s are also won by the player than won the second game, and a whopping 100% by the player that won the third, what kind of shit format is that?

OMG. This information must be spread! Campaign against the best of 3!!!!1

Seriously people, you don't have to have a Master's in statistics to appreciate this.

Please or register to reply.

The Statistics of Extended Series in SC2

Completed

Ongoing

Upcoming