EPTSplitting the vote between several people I agree does the town little good, but at the same time not doing so could just be sheeping, making it easier for mafia to blend in. I'm open to suggestions as to how to do this.
TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 51
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AirbladeOrange
United States2571 Posts
Splitting the vote between several people I agree does the town little good, but at the same time not doing so could just be sheeping, making it easier for mafia to blend in. I'm open to suggestions as to how to do this. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
About Amber. Reluctant to point fingers. Talks a bit about Chaoser, but mostly defending himself. Calling attention to the nightkills. Would have lurked much better unless tunneled by Chaoser. Vote on Kurumi for the weak posting. Good music in his Profile. OMGUS: Wall-of-text'ed Chaoser, not a real Omgus but that wall was almost as scary as Redtooths rules. Took no votes at all during Day 1, but tunneling from Chaoser. Cthsazsa, initially no real accusations, talking about inactives and how noone looks scummy. Claims noobtown. Soon starts with FoS. Objects to redtooth and his rules. Defends himself by brushing away accusations or being rude. Not afraid to get attention. FoS and votes on: AO, Conversion, Irish, Beneather, Forumite, VarpuliS OMGUS on: Conversion, Chaoser, possible others 2nd most votes Day 1 (5 after Kurumis 13) Fun fact: Jackal who voted on Cth died. _________________ Crude postcheck, I probably missed a lot of things against them. Right now I get red/bluetell from Amber, red/green from Cthsazsa. A lot of it depends on who you decide are obvTown, because the accusers are more or less the same for both. With Cth battling or accusing Conversion, Irish, two scummy players, makes me doubt the idea of lynching either of them. I´m having trouble backing a lynch on Cthsazsa OR Amber, and will keep my vote on Irish for now. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
Irish is a wasted vote, unless he posts and votes before the deadline, as otherwise he will be modkilled. | ||
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ilovejonn
Canada2548 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 08 2011 07:10 sandroba wrote: I will post a long analysis on Amber[Light] tomorrow. I'm hoping he will adress some points I made about him. I'm VERY confident he is mafia. Irish is a wasted vote, unless he posts and votes before the deadline, as otherwise he will be modkilled. I would really love to see your post in this regard as I am getting a null-tell or a weak scum-tell at most from his posting. + Show Spoiler + I would like to sugest we focus on Cthsazsa and Amber right now (and Irish if he begin posting again). Spliting the votes between multiple players is not good for town, and will give mafia an easy way out. If you believe one of these 2 players to be mafia vote for them instead of voting for someone else. I am also lacking a confidence in your STRONGLY confident post. A few pages ago you had a strong theory that redtooth was scum which you discarded on the way to this post. Also, Cthsazsa was mentioned for the first time by you a few posts ago and you have given no rationale as to why you think he is scum. Even if you want to limit the discussion to 2-3 people to be lynched, why the sudden shift from redtooth to Cthsazsa? Why not focus on redtooth and Amber? If you were confident that redtooth was scum, doesn't that imply Cthsazsa is town (since redtooth and Cthsazsa have voted for each other and argued strongly against each other)? So, why are we going after a townie then? This clear disconnect is making me wary of your analysis. Are you afraid that redtooth flipping green this early will provide town a lot of information this early? It certainly seems like it as you have accused him too often in this thread but then backed off every time. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 10:39 jaminz wrote: My general thoughts on the game so far: 1. We don’t really have a ton of information about anyone so far (besides # of posts & inactivity), so I agree with the arguments that we should try to keep things active. 2. Be wary of people quickly bandwagoning/jumping onto one target to lynch. Mafia only have one KP per night, so in order to try to gain an advantage more quickly, I’d expect them to try to get us to lynch people who they know for sure aren’t mafia. Thus, if you see 2 or 3 people quickly jump on a lynch candidate, I’d be suspicious. 3. There are a few votes against me thus far, but they seem to stem from the fact that I was inactive and made a comment early on asking if we should just start accusing people. I don’t really think that’s much of a reason to lynch me, so I’m not going to spend much time defending myself unless someone gives me a reason I should. My thoughts on players so far: pHelix Equilibria (7 total posts) + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 01:40 pHelix Equilibria wrote: Hello, sorry I have actually been out of town traveling in lieu to Easter Weekend. My sincere apologies. and was unable to see this. But it looks like there is a case of the ol' group think process. I'm obviously at a large disadvantage. But am I too late? + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 01:50 pHelix Equilibria wrote: I see the deadline on the rules, but what is the rules regarding votes? Can the town change votes? Before the day is over. With a clear majority coming at me ? Eeek I am scared. Was an early lynch candidate because he was the last person to post something. First few posts were mostly apologizing for being inactive. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 02:46 pHelix Equilibria wrote: Well I've read the other Mafia threads and you're right there is some heavy discussion here. But It seems like there isn't enough people talking to have a discussion. Much less we have two for a conversation. With more than a third being relatively quiet it seems the most obvious choice would be to get rid of the ones who are quiet. You could get something going here vyro. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 06:42 pHelix Equilibria wrote: After reading the above posts. I believe the silent ones are the ones to really look out for. I understand the time zone differences. But I would say out of the silent ones. The one that pointed fingers relatively early with no supporting evidence is more suspicious. Phoenix is right, aScle said one thing so far, but then again he looks like he's in a different time zone, so when he does say more than one thing, we'll see. ##Unvote ##Vote Jaminz Later goes on to say we should be suspicious of inactive people/lurkers, and lynch them. That’s slightly suspicious to me, but not really enough to peg him as mafia (it’s still way to early obviously). To be transparent, I’ll mention he was one of the people who voted for me. Rising_Phoenix (7 total posts) Has been fairly active so far, at least with the size of his posts. + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2011 23:57 Rising_Phoenix wrote: Sorry I was very asleep so I just woke up (10:50am where I'm at). Since we don't have any conducive evidence of anyone who is mafia yet I think it is a safe bet to vote on pHelix. Unless he comes out to defend himself he is a safe bet because: 1) If he is mafia he is hiding from lack of posting 2) If he is a townie he is snot contributing anything to the posting/discussion 3) If he is afk he's useless to everyone anyways I need to read some older mafia threads to get a better idea of how to post and tells for who is mafia or not. So, until other evidence suggests otherwise: ##Vote: pHelix Equilibria Gives reasons to vote for inactives, pretty harmless post. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 04:50 Rising_Phoenix wrote: ##Unvote Sorry I was at a horn concert and doing some other stuff as well. First, looking at this mathematically there are 11 players, 3 of which are mafia. If you randomly choose a person there is a approx. 27% chance of getting it right. However, choosing randomly is a bad idea since you never know if you're lynching an important member (cop or medic). The cop should look up a random member that isn't himself(obviously). That means there is a 3 in 10 chance of him being right (30%). If he is right, he should be able to hint to everyone else who is mafia. That leaves everyone else voting on another person. If you know who the cop/detective is, that leaves a 3 in 9 chance (33%) of being right. That's from 1/5 to 1/3 probability of being right. I don't know how well this works for day one but numbers are fun =]. ----- Break for other half--- Leadership for townies is essential, and right now it looks like Conversion and Freestalker are the two most active in leading conversation and topics. Unless one of them slips up, I'd refrain from killing either of them for now. Silent members have three possibilities: 1)They're trying to hide 2)They're lazy or disinterested in the game 3)It's a holiday and they're traveling Going through we have these people being pretty inactive: -jaminz: a few filler posts, nothing as contribution to the thread, pointing fingers -aScle: one post? -Enervate: very little posting as well These players have said very little or immediately start pointing fingers (Enervate) when they start pointing. However, it doesn't make sense to choose him because he hasn't bothered defending any accusations or contributing anything to support his claim. aScle and Jaminz have had very little to contribute. Their posts have little to no content and have not been active in general. Also, Jaminz has been very ready to point fingers but has little supporting evidence. I'll vote for him since he's just detracting from town synergy. So, unless he can defend himself: ##vote Jaminz This is his biggest post so far. I honestly don’t see a ton of value here. He did some basic math about chances of guessing right on the first lynch, but that doesn’t really help us decide who we should pick. He’s basically just mentioning some basic mafia strategy (the cop should hint to us which mafia to pick, etc.). There’s obviously no harm in doing any of this, and I guess I could see how it might be helpful to newer players. Building off of that: If you believe you have a strong scum/Mafia read on someone, the best way to go about getting the rest of the town on your side is to go back through every post the player has made in this thread (use the search function) and compile a list of suspicious behavior. I would strongly recommend that any blues not roleclaim until near the end of the game, or unless you find some other important reason to do so. Again, in order to be transparent I’ll mention he also voted for me. HardCorey (8 total posts) + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2011 09:06 HardCorey wrote: I just want to play. I think I can handle a non-newbie version but if this is the way to get initiated ill play here first. :D Right off the bat he mentions he thinks he’s ready for a non-new player version of mafia. This seems to imply some familiarity or experience with the game. Nothing suspicious about that, but good to note. + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2011 23:44 HardCorey wrote: So what would you say is your justification for voting on pHelix Equilibria? You know you're right though, not having posted seems like a good enough reason to kill them. Most of his posts are just filler (“Hi how are you” type things) until this. Is happy to lynch inactives without much proof/evidence otherwise that they are mafia. + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2011 20:38 freestalker wrote: In any case, we'll need to vote for someone anyway, so let's do this. Inactivity is not good. I was also wondering if banhammer/substitution will apply or not? Also I am wondering about some of you if you're just using your lack of experience to avoid any kind of talk. And I'm still waiting for Enervate to post some more. It's been a while now and I've seen nothing else just pointing of fingers at people who are willing to hunt the scum  ##Vote: pHelix Equilibria “Your (not our) lack of experience” seems to again imply familiarity with the game. The last sentence is somewhat intriguing. He mentions that he’s waiting for people to talk, and that people are eager to point fingers at those who are scum-hunting, but fails to do any scum-hunting himself. Curious. Again, not enough to paint him as red, but something to note : ) FezTheCaliph (12 total posts) Was inactive to start, but since returning has been very active. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 04:09 FezTheCaliph wrote: Woah sorry guys. I had a long night(last minute project) and slept for most of yesterday =/ Thanks to freestalker and vyro for the sum up posts ^_^ Now I'll try to get a tally of the current votes going. Enervate has 2 votes(including mine) aScle has 1 vote pHelix Equilibra has 3 votes(unless I missed an unvote) and I'll join in the vote on Enervate because he's pointing fingers already but mostly because he's inactive since doing so. He’s been keeping track of the vote count, which is helpful : ) ##Vote Enervate Vote on enervate due to inactivity (later retracted). Reasoning is fair as far as I can see. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 05:06 FezTheCaliph wrote: Only issue with that is that if the cop outs himself right away, the mafia will know who he is and whack him, unless the medic heals him that night. So either we lose our cop right away or have two of our speciality units incapacitated for a night, leaving the mob free to thin our ranks. Its not a bad idea but I'm pointing out the downside. Devil's advocate is fun ^_^ Points out that we need to keep the cop/medic roles a secret for a while. Good logic, overall I get somewhat of a town read from him, but his posts don’t have a whole lot to analyze in them so far (besides the one). Sirael (2 total posts – one of 2 least active players) + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2011 02:50 Sirael wrote: Then i'll make the start. Was outside the whole day chilling in the sun (still 25°C at 8 pm). As this is my very first game, i hope i don't make too many mistakes. Anyway GLHF to you all and let's hope for an interesting game. This is his only post since signing up. It has no real substance other to say “yes I’m here.” Also, it should be noted that he seems to have only posted because someone called him out for not posting. This is suspicious, but he could just be a new player that’s somewhat scared to post. He needs to post more. (Note: if you’re a new player, just post your thoughts. Don’t worry about being seen as mafia for analyzing another person; the best thing you can do is just to do some analysis on players and state your opinions about them). freestalker (22 total posts – our most active player) The first thing I’m going to note here is that every post (except like 3) has a smiley face in it. An enthusiastic town member, or a mafia trying to seem happy & town aligned? I think the former, but who knows. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 00:41 freestalker wrote: Alright, I made a short summary list of posts in this thread so far person per person. Everyone take what you wish for yourselves from it, but what I find most disturbing is the lack of posts at some points. And some people didn't post for almost a day now. I admit there is not that much to talk about so far, but hopefully we'll get there soon. I would like to see more talk from everyone, but those bolded ones have 0-1 posts and are the most critical in this situation. phelix is probably afk and maybe even didn't notice the game has started. others have 1 post and know the game is on, yet don't post. 1. pHelix Equilibria 0 2. Rising_Phoenix 2 empty posts + 1 possible bandwagoning? 3. HardCorey 2 empty posts after asking, then trying to deny discussion (since noone has died) then trying to confuse voting of inactive, and then voting! 4. FezTheCaliph 1 empty hello post so far just to let us know "he's here" 5. Sirael 1 post after asking, afraid of making mistakes, eh? ain't we all. 6. Freestalker DAT IZ ME 7. Enervate only post so far is pointing fingers at me and jaminz for saying we're up to hunt scum >_< 8. Conversion seems to be trying! +point 9. Jaminz so far 2 kinda empty posts. now voting 10. vyro 2 posts, so far also not too much, asking newb questions (maybe intentional, maybe not? with all those guides around) 11. aScle 1 post, hi all gl hf! lolwut. that's it? Here’s his first big post giving a summary of everyone’s posts up until that point. Analysis strangely missing (for the most part). + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 02:06 freestalker wrote: mmm, seeing there's some kind of activity now and you're not just dead weight, the vote may go to someone else. A good joke, btw ##Unvote ##Vote Enervate How about you, sir? Got something to say? He started by voting for pHenix, and now for enervate. It seems he’s just jumping from inactive player to inactive player. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 05:16 freestalker wrote: the cop doesn't have to role claim to find enough evidence and push the conviction on others. Roleclaiming is probably a good option only once there are like 1-2 mafia left and he knows who they are, or if mafia is claiming they are a cop and the real cop knows one other mafia member (netting 2 mafia for 1 cop), etc. If medic manages to figure out who cop is before he roleclaims, he should be the only target to heal. This strategy makes sense, and follows the same logic I would use. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 08:06 freestalker wrote: Oh.. why do I always try to find the more complicated way, lol. I totally forgot about the button. Yeah I always saw the numbers, but always was wondering how to explain them as I saw 2 possibilities. As it is, I now have few groups of people - inactives - Ascle and Sirael not really contributing ones - Jaminz, Hardcorey, Enervate and the confusing ones - e.g. phelix on the other hand, jaminz and enervate prolly ain't in one group, since enervate was 'joking' about both me and jaminz. he might be so cool and joke about his mafia fellow but I kinda doubt that. I have few more thoughts but I'll wait a while before presenting those. I gotta sleep anyway, will be back tomorrow afternoon (in like 16 hrs) He posts some analysis, but still doesn’t really say what he thinks about the people he mentions. Since he’s pretty active, I’d like to see a bit more opinions & evidence to back them up in his posts. Enervate (4 total posts) He jokes in the beginning about a few players (including myself) for being mafia because we said “let’s kill mafia. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 05:18 Enervate wrote: Ok I'm checking this thread now. I don't have that much time to check this thread on the weekends. I usually check during class. Don't vote for me. This post is kind of suspicious to me just because of the part at the end. A few people voted for him because of his first post & inactivity, and all he ends up saying is “don’t vote for me.” There’s no analysis, no reasoning, nothing of substance. This is pretty suspicious to me. Conversion (17 total posts) + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2011 00:51 Conversion wrote: I'm not too familiar with Night 0, but I suggest keeping the following tips in mind. If you are blue, do NOT claim unless it is absolutely necessary. (ie, you are medic about to be lynched) Be wary of fake claims by Mafia if the cop is dead. Always be confident in your analysis/voting so you don't look like mafia (I had trouble with this in my current mafia game.) Anyways, a list of people who haven't posted yet. 1. pHelix Equilibria 3. HardCorey 5. Sirael We want to hear from you, guys!  Solid advice right off the bat. He’s more or less the one who got things/posting started in the thread. Encourages discussion. + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2011 13:59 Conversion wrote: yeah, I'm trying to correct that logic cause night 0 (from what I've seen) used to create plans and let town pressure inactives right off the bat so they can try and force errors from mafia players. never take discussion hours for granted. just saying. Really wants us to talk to each other. I agree with this desire. + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2011 17:50 Conversion wrote: You want to read the OP for game-specific mechanics like clues. OP states that there are no clues in this game, so clues aren't included here. Any normal game with clues, however, usually incorporates something (sig, profile picture/info) into a night post. the usual proportion of blues:greens I am not sure about. I think it depends on the host and the game. Posting less is considered detrimental to ideal town environment, where everyone is posting and contributing. Posting does not necessarily mean that one is pro town, however. Being inactive let's mafia blend in and it is why inactivity is frowned upon. Inactivity isn't really a sure mafia tell, but it is considered anti-town/scummy behavior. Lies to catch mafia.. I would suggest reading some mafia games where there were fake roleclaims that contradicted behavior/posts or something like that. Mafia actually falsely role claims often if it will pay off, though it's usually a very heavily calculated move. A usual townie plan just outlines and establishes ideal town environment and some policies (no inactivity, lynch all liars, etc.) I'd start off by pressuring an inactive, who still hasn't posted yet... so ##Vote: pHelix Equilibria He was the first one to vote, and started the bandwagon on pHelix. I think he’s trying to play this game differently than his last (one I’m also in). + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 02:01 Conversion wrote: We can change the vote, don't worry. We were just pressuring you for being inactive. ##Unvote Now stay and contribute! :D And try not to spam, it's considered anti-town/scummy behavior. People might not take votes because they're not on the computer (time zone conflicts) He seems to be very positive in his posts. I like this. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 03:01 Conversion wrote: Hey, nothing to feel self conscious about I'm a pretty terrible player, but this is a learning experience. Let's just try our best to learn, yeah?And it really is hard to have a discussion with so many people just disappearing.. So let's start off with some basic questions for everyone to spark up some discussion; I'm eyeing all the inactives right now. DO you think we should lynch an inactive day 1? What are your current opinions of the players in this game? Do you agree with following policy lynches as the game progresses? Brings up some discussion topics. I’d like to see him answer these himself. The fact that he didn’t is a little suspicious. Overall he seems to be trying to get people talking, and is being pretty helpful overall from my point of view. This could be either because he’s town and wants to help (most obvious reason) or because he’s mafia trying to build town credibility and direct the game. A lot of his posts have been trying to direct other players & get them to talk (he’s made a few pressure votes, etc.). I don’t really have a good read on him yet, other than the fact that he’s been very active so far. Jaminz (8 total posts, including this one) I’ll let you guys do the analysis on me. It’s pointless for me to do it. Vyro (6 total posts) + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2011 17:12 vyro wrote: still feeling pretty noob. i don't feel like i have much to add right now, but i don't want to not post for fear of looking inactive or being one of those 'barely posts'. so here are some questions: how are clues usually worked into the game? what's the usual proportion of blues to greens? does posting less really suggest someone is mafia? what kind of lies are there for us to catch people with? it's not like mafia's going to falsely claim roles what does a usual townie plan look like? thanks in advance + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 01:09 vyro wrote: about that. lately, i haven't been able to expand spoilers. when i click "show spoiler", the page refreshes to the top, and the address bar has a pound sign in it. i'm using chrome 11 ok, i see. i guess i could understand why they would want to fake roleclaim. i'll be looking through those previous mafia games, however daunting it may seem. it'll be interesting to see how phelix defends himself if he ever shows up ##Vote: pHelix Equilibria His first two posts don’t have a lot of substance to them, but he asks some questions in the first which is good. He bandwagons a vote onto pHenix without giving much explanation for why. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 02:40 vyro wrote: something changed recently with my chrome, so only i can't see spoilers. whenever i try to show spoilers, instead of it expanding, the page refreshes. sorry for the unnecessary post on my part. i'm using firefox again, until i can figure out why spoilers aren't behaving correctly in chrome. i don't want to derail discussion further, but i would like to know how i can view things correctly in chrome again. ##Unvote to help contribute rather than look like a big noob/scum acting like noob, here's my opinion of players so far: phelix: knows physics and stuff. votes for an inactive rising_phoenix: hasn't said much minus basic logic in favor of lynching an inactive phelix hardcorey: hasn't contributed except for not wanting to lynch inactives fez: no substantive posts sirael: no substantive posts freestalker: seems to know what he's doing. interesting banter with enervate enervate: just one post, jokingly accusing freestalker conversion: probably the most experienced here. probably doesn't like me for asking dumb questions jaminz: wants to start random accusations? honestly, i also wouldn't know where to begin if it weren't for inactive either though.. ascle: no substantive posts me: immediately self-conscious after reading other mafia games and seeing how scummy my posts look so, the inactives to look out for so far are fez, sirael, and ascle not much to look at so far it seems This post I like. He gives his opinions on players with some (scattered) evidence to back it up. Right off the bat this gives me an impression he’s a town player. However, it’s still very early in the game so everything can change. aScle (2 total posts, our other least active player) He’s literally said nothing other than “gl hf.” He needs to post more, or I’d be tempted to put a few votes on him. More overall thoughts: We need people to post more. Don't be afraid to do analysis. The more people we have scum-hunting and looking out for suspicious posts the better. Don't worry about being wrong. It's much worse to just sit back and be scared to post than it is to have some of your opinions or analysis be wrong. This is a beginners game, so force yourself to make some posts & put yourself out there. No one here is a pro. + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 11:15 jaminz wrote: So it seems we have two major candidates to lynch: Enervate and HardCorey. It seems the reason people are voting for HardCorey is because he’s inactive, which I completely understand and even support to an extent. I’m having a hard time with this vote, but I think I’m going to stick with my current vote and go with lynching Enervate. I’m getting more of a scum feel from him than from anyone else this game. We’ve seen him make some posts, and honestly it seems like in most of them he’s just trying to deflect attention away from himself. + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 02:13 Enervate wrote: If I was mafia, wouldn't I be trying to defend myself more and vote for other people? In my opinion, mafia members have more motive to participate actively and try to vote people who aren't mafia members. I mean, mafia members must have realized by now that not writing huge long posts makes you look suspicious. ##Vote jaminz Mafia members would know I'm not a mafia member and try to vote me. Seems like 3 people have voted me so far. Hmmmmm. When I voted for him, he made a post about it, and without any real thought or analysis he immediately voted for me. It’s understandable to be a bit defensive, but I think that the best way to get people to stop voting for you is to prove your worth to the town. This means doing analysis on other players, which not only points out suspicious actions of others, but builds credibility with the town. + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 05:14 Enervate wrote: When I said I was about to edit my post, I didn't mean I was trying to change what I had wrote, I meant I wanted to add the second sentence I posted next, because not double-posting is a habit I've had from posting outside of this thread. But here's my analysis: I am pretty sure Fez the Caliph is not mafia because he unvoted me. If he was mafia, he would have left his vote on me because it wouldn't look suspicious since other people are still voting for me. If we were both mafia, he wouldn't have voted for me in the first place. So, 3 out of 9 people (myself and Fez excluded), could possibly be mafia. aScle is suspicious to me because he goes from not posting much to jumping on the vote on me. I'm a convenient scapegoat. Jamin'z reply to my vote against him is interesting. If he was an innocent townie, he might accuse me of being mafia for voting him. But instead he tells me how I can get his vote off of me. Maybe because he knows I'm not mafia. And the only way he could know is if he was mafia. Rising Phoenix's post is also suspicious to me because he says he takes time to make thoughtful posts but also says he's too lazy to count the votes. And here's some good faith, I'll try and tally the votes. Phelix Equlibria - 1 Enervate -4 ascle -1 jaminz -2 hardcorey-1 (This actually took me a really long time lol. It's kinda hard with all of the unvotes. I think it's accurate, though.) Here he does a bit of analysis, but when I read it I fet like even his analysis was just done to deflect blame from himself. He backs up every comment he makes by saying that the reason he believes someone is or isn’t mafia is because they either did, or did not vote for him. That doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, as no one else knows if you’re mafia or not, so it’s pretty much just circular logic. All that being said, I’m still having trouble deciding whether or not Enervate is mafia or just a new/inexperienced/bad town player. I’m leaning towards the former, but I’m still on the fence. On inactives: Like others and I have said, inactivity is a problem. However, I think there is always a chance that some players are still just having difficulty getting into the game. This was a tough weekend for many, being Easter, and so I think it’s understandable to give everyone a free pass for at least the first lynch. Overall, I think that either vote (HardCorey or Enervate) makes sense, but I think that the vote for Enervate is based more on his posts/what he has said, while the vote on HardCorey seems to mostly just be a vote against inactivity. I don’t see a ton that separates HardCorey from other inactive players, and so I think it makes sense to give everyone another day or so to get up to speed. A final note (I’ve mentioned it before, but I think it’s still important): Be wary of people quickly bandwagoning/jumping onto one target to lynch. Mafia only have one KP per night, so in order to try to gain an advantage more quickly, I’d expect them to try to get us to lynch people who they know for sure aren’t mafia. Thus, if you see 2 or 3 people quickly jump on a lynch candidate, I’d be suspicious. This has happened both with HardCorey and with Enervate, so it doesn’t tell us too much, but just be aware of it/on the lookout. + Show Spoiler + On April 26 2011 12:54 jaminz wrote: On the off chance I die tonight, I wanted to post this: I’m getting a pretty big scum read from vyro. One of his first posts: + Show Spoiler + On April 23 2011 17:12 vyro wrote: still feeling pretty noob. i don't feel like i have much to add right now, but i don't want to not post for fear of looking inactive or being one of those 'barely posts'. so here are some questions: how are clues usually worked into the game? what's the usual proportion of blues to greens? does posting less really suggest someone is mafia? what kind of lies are there for us to catch people with? it's not like mafia's going to falsely claim roles what does a usual townie plan look like? thanks in advance There are two things to not here that contnue throughout his posts: 1. He’s worried about looking inactive (the bolded part) 2. He’s seeking information on how people are going to play the game, what their tendencies are, and what a “normal” town looks like. I would argue that the first point is him being paranoid about being called out as inactive because he doesn’t want to appear as scum. The second point for me is more telling. He’s looking (consciously or not) to find out how a normal town plays this game, and overall how a normal game looks. This strikes me as suspicious, as I wouldn’t think a normal townie would be so worried about blending in, while this is exactly what a mafia member would do. + Show Spoiler + On April 24 2011 02:40 vyro wrote: something changed recently with my chrome, so only i can't see spoilers. whenever i try to show spoilers, instead of it expanding, the page refreshes. sorry for the unnecessary post on my part. i'm using firefox again, until i can figure out why spoilers aren't behaving correctly in chrome. i don't want to derail discussion further, but i would like to know how i can view things correctly in chrome again. ##Unvote to help contribute rather than look like a big noob/scum acting like noob, here's my opinion of players so far: phelix: knows physics and stuff. votes for an inactive rising_phoenix: hasn't said much minus basic logic in favor of lynching an inactive phelix hardcorey: hasn't contributed except for not wanting to lynch inactives fez: no substantive posts sirael: no substantive posts freestalker: seems to know what he's doing. interesting banter with enervate enervate: just one post, jokingly accusing freestalker conversion: probably the most experienced here. probably doesn't like me for asking dumb questions jaminz: wants to start random accusations? honestly, i also wouldn't know where to begin if it weren't for inactive either though.. ascle: no substantive posts me: immediately self-conscious after reading other mafia games and seeing how scummy my posts look so, the inactives to look out for so far are fez, sirael, and ascle not much to look at so far it seems Here we see him again mentioning that part of the reason he’s posting is so that he doesn’t seem like scum. I feel like a town member wouldn’t need to mention this, while a scum member would subconsciously put something like this in there without thinking. + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 11:35 vyro wrote: i think conversion's opinions would be more valid with a more experienced or active group. but most of his scum reads (which he has on most of the town) don't really seem to account for how new some of us are at this. so are we all voting on hardcorey now? what happens when he comes back and defends himself, what about when any inactive comes back? hopefully, we'll have more information after the first night Again it seems like he’s just trying to figure out what town can do so he can go along with it. This looks like mafia play to me. + Show Spoiler + On April 25 2011 13:39 vyro wrote: wow that's disappointing to say the least... though with his inactivity, would he have investigated somebody anyway? >_> is it wrong to discuss who we should medic at this point? This one should be obvious, but he’s blatantly asking who the medic should guard at this point. While this could mean he’s the medic, I doubt that’s the case since most mafia members should be smart enough to see this and immediately suspect him as being a medic. Thus, I think this is just blatant mafia behavior trying to find a consensus for who the medic can protect, so that mafia can avoid that person. + Show Spoiler + On April 26 2011 07:45 vyro wrote: hardcorey did make posts after all the accusations mounted on him and before the lynch. they were just about tsl3 and thorzain, not our mafia game since we are discussing who we should protect, i'd like to see conversion or freestalker protected. will those protected by the doctor know that they're protected by the doctor even if not targeted by mafia? @freestalker - how do i know he's joking? i assume he's joking with the :p face right now, most of the active posters (jaminz, freestalker, rising, conversion) seem pretty pro-town, constantly fishing for information. the fact that they have reads on me, but aren't going for outright accusations gives me some confidence surprisingly. however, i worry that if even one was mafia , he would know that i'm a townie and try to lay suspicion on me more heavily later on. bigger question marks for me still are phelix, fez, sirael, enervate, and ascle He mentions that he’s worried about 3 of the most active players coming after him. I think it’s a bit odd that he feels the need to put this in there, when I don’t feel like anyone has really accused him of anything big. There is scummy/mafia behavior in pretty much every one of his posts. If I die tonight (and even if I don’t), we need to take a long look at vyro. This game his posts have been completely different from the ones above. The only post that has really stood out as scummy is this one where he pretends to be surprised that his "analysis" on killer was wrong, when it seemed pretty clear he thought he was blue. On May 07 2011 12:41 jaminz wrote: Aaaand fuck. I was completely wrong on my analysis of KillerSOS As for Amber, he better post something productive if he hopes to survive the day. A vet like him isn't going to get away with disappearing like irish did. The "Cthsazsa is scum because jackal is dead" argument seems pretty WIFOM. On the other hand, he certainly has had his fair share of empty posts. If we're going to save jaminz for another day, I'll probably be on one of these two. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
If you noticed, I asked for Amber[Light]'s opinion on Redtooth, and that also contributed to changing my mind. On the other hand, the analysis I will provide on Amber[Light] has nothing to do with poor logic. It will prove that the actions he has taken so far only make sense with a scum mentality. You shouldn't attack my analysis before I even post it, that makes me wary of you. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 08 2011 08:01 sandroba wrote: No, I changed my mind about redtooth. His analysis on cthsazsa made me change my mind about him, and he's too fearless and outspoken of his opinions, so it's not very likely he is scum. His plan was misguided, and sometimes I misinterpret poor logic with scum behaviour. My main suspicion about redtooth was the fact that he was willing to lynch killerSOS (who hinted blue) day1 and he was stubborn about chaoser (which I have a town read on) being scum and providing weak reasoning. If you noticed, I asked for Amber[Light]'s opinion on Redtooth, and that also contributed to changing my mind. On the other hand, the analysis I will provide on Amber[Light] has nothing to do with poor logic. It will prove that the actions he has taken so far only make sense with a scum mentality. You shouldn't attack my analysis before I even post it, that makes me wary of you. Amber said redtooth was possibly town. If Amber is scum (which you are now claiming), and redtooth is town, why would he defend redtooth? On top of that, if you think Amber is scum and he is defending redtooth, won't that make you even more suspicious of redtooth? In fact, the fact that Amber thinks redtooth might be town, should make you press even more for a lynch between red and him. Again, there seems a clear disconnect in your logic. | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
Amber said redtooth was possibly town. If Amber is scum (which you are now claiming), and redtooth is town, why would he defend redtooth? On top of that, if you think Amber is scum and he is defending redtooth, won't that make you even more suspicious of redtooth? Bussing happens all the time. It's not the motive that really gives it away so much as how someone goes about defending or attacking someone. | ||
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 08 2011 08:27 chaoser wrote: Bussing happens all the time. It's not the motive that really gives it away so much as how someone goes about defending or attacking someone. Again, it is not the idea of bussing. Of course, Amber can be bussing. But, it is ludicrous to think that Sandroba listened to Amber's arguments, made the decision that Amber was bussing redtooth (someone he strongly suspects), and then changed his mind on redtooth's leaning (based on the fact the someone he suspects to be scum can be possibly bussing about someone else he suspects to be scum). It is either the above that happened or it seems like a mafia slip-up. I would have bought a newbie-slipup argument or fallacious logic argument if this was someone like Cthsazsa or KillerSoS posting. However, this comes from someone I know to be sharp enough as town from the game I played with him, and some-one who received high accolades for his play in the Sleeper Cell Mafia. FoS: Sandroba | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
On May 08 2011 08:44 chaoser wrote: Ok, we need to focus on a few people and not just point fingers at everyone cause then mafia can jsut blend in. At this point either write up an actual argument against someone if you're going to FoS them. What are you opinions on Amber, cthsazsa, and irish? I am all for focusing on a few people but it is Sandroba who is bringing in new people everytime. He started the day with Irish and Redtooth, then ditched Irish along the way and focused on redtooth (he claimed a strong theory). Then, somewhere along the way due to mysterious happenings (no explanations provided), his suspicions of redtooth faded away and he started a campaign against Amber and cthsazsa. His campaign against cthsazsa is based on arguments of someone whom he has strongly suspected throughout the thread. I am suspicious of cthsazsa since he has been band-wagoning on his votes without any solid arguments to go with it. The fact that Jackal tunneled him and aidnai listed him as the 2nd most suspicious person in his books and both of them died also adds to it. However, I still need to do a re-analysis of his postings to be confident. As for Irish, regardless of his leaning, I am pegging a mod-kill on him today. If I had to guess, I would say if he turns up again before the end of the day, he is scum; if not he will flip green on mod-kill. Someone lurking for more than 72 hours after being accused by more than half the town is either a disinterested townie (in which he will not show up) or a noobscum. Before I tell my opinion on Amber, I would like to hear Sandroba's arguments since he is the one insisting on voting on him. Also, it is interesting that you claim my FoS doesn't have an argument attached to it while yours against Amber amounts to similar content as mine against Sandroba. You are using the argument that the reason Amber provided for voting for Kurumi is scummy. I find the logical disconnect behind Sandroba's sudden change in FoS and the consequent incoherent explanation a lot more scummy than your argument against Amber. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
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Eternalmisfit
United States643 Posts
I find it amusing that you ask for my opinion on cthsazsa but have never posted one yourself. On May 08 2011 03:44 sandroba wrote: @ilovejonn no I'm not saying that. I'm saying that cthsazsa was never in any danger of being lynched and kurumi's lynch was pretty much garanteed when he voted for him. If he wanted to avoid suspicion he would have placed his vote on cthsazsa instead. That's why I don't feel it's very likely he is mafia. Also, the very argument you are making against lynching Beneather can be made for Amber. At the time Amber voted, Kurumi had 10 votes and the next target had 4 votes. Also, the town mood was dead set on lynching Kurumi. According to your argument itself, if Amber is scum, what purpose does it serve for him to vote for Kurumi and draw suspicion onto himself. | ||
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GGQ
Canada2653 Posts
On May 08 2011 09:11 orgolove wrote: I really think redtooth either needs to be checked by a dt or be lynched asap. He's been acting plenty scummy enough, and his kills will give us plenty of information both on Amber and others involved in this dispute. Dont lynch for information, it just leads to endless wifom. If we lynch redtooth it's because we think he's scum and that's all. His day 1 posts gave me a scum read, his actions since then haven't saved him in my eyes, but haven't made him more guilty either. I'm willing to give him some more time. He posts a lot, anyways, so if he's mafia he'll give himself up. Cthazsa seems to be a lot quieter now than he was on the first day, and I can't explain why. He responded with lots of posts to jackal's pressure, but now he's gone afk because of the pressure today? Maybe just because he's now a viable lynch target? His actions seems scummy enough, but I never got that vibe from his posts. I'd like to see an analysis by someone I trust more than redtooth showing him as scum. Amber seems the scummiest to me from his posts so far, but there just aren't that many of them. Amber, if you were a dayvig and had to use your power to avoid a lynch, who would you shoot? | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
@chaoser I find it amusing that you ask for my opinion on cthsazsa but have never posted one yourself. Also, it is interesting that you claim my FoS doesn't have an argument attached to it while yours against Amber amounts to similar content as mine against Sandroba. I think cthsazsa deserves a check. He's a newbie and has spent a lot of time mostly defending himself which has taken up a lot of town time. But I don't think at this time he's a threat to town. He is posting in a consistent manner and he will continue to post as such so there is time to re-evaluate him. I say this because I've seen many a townie do what he does. He got caught up in a vet being suspicious of him and kind of has been occupied by it since forever. I did the exact thing the first mafia game I played. Ace called me out and I was medic. I ended up joining a PM group made up of all mafia aside from me and got killed. At the same time, I've seen newbie mafia play like him as well. So for me, he's still on the fence. I think his voting pattern as the game goes on will be the most telling thing about him, aside from DT check. At this moment I'm more worried about vets we aren't contributing as much as they should, offering flawed arguments and generally acting scummy. That is Amber[Light] I already talked about some of his inconsistencies in terms of him talking about why he voted for Kurumi to his weird response to my pressure. For the people talking about Jackal's vote on Cthsazsa like it actually means anything at this moment, then I'd also like to point out that aidnai was suppose to post a damning analysis post on Amber today. Either of the two points isn't very telling though since mafia could have planned their hits to throw suspicion on townies. Either way Amber's play has been way more worrisome to me than cthsazsa's. Amber is a vet and so it's less excusable than cthsazsa's play is in terms of scumminess. My recommendations are for a DT to check cthsazsa tonight, to lynch Amber, and to day shoot Irish if he shows up and doesn't give a legitimate reason for his actions as well as his inactions (not posting for over two days now). If Irish doesn't show up then he can just get modkilled . | ||
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PaqMan
United States1475 Posts
On May 08 2011 10:10 GGQ wrote: Dont lynch for information, it just leads to endless wifom. If we lynch redtooth it's because we think he's scum and that's all. His day 1 posts gave me a scum read, his actions since then haven't saved him in my eyes, but haven't made him more guilty either. I'm willing to give him some more time. He posts a lot, anyways, so if he's mafia he'll give himself up. Cthazsa seems to be a lot quieter now than he was on the first day, and I can't explain why. He responded with lots of posts to jackal's pressure, but now he's gone afk because of the pressure today? Maybe just because he's now a viable lynch target? His actions seems scummy enough, but I never got that vibe from his posts. I'd like to see an analysis by someone I trust more than redtooth showing him as scum. Amber seems the scummiest to me from his posts so far, but there just aren't that many of them. Amber, if you were a dayvig and had to use your power to avoid a lynch, who would you shoot? Just finished reading through the last 2 pages I missed. I'm rather not sure what to say. Sandroba, AO, Eternalmisfit, you all have some pretty interesting arguments. A few times they've had me reconsider my vote. Especially the ones about Amber and beneather. But my thought on redtooth being scum is still adamant. I apologize if my initial analysis on him was rather vague. I wouldn't even call it an analysis, myself. But a few people have already gave their analysis on him, so I'm just repeating obvious things people have already stated. I probably appear quiet now because no one's tunneling me? lol. | ||
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elmizzt
United States3309 Posts
On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote: I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum. Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes. The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away. On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him? ##Vote: Beneather This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind. | ||
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