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Hmm, I just read over bum's analysis.
I would agree with bum's analysis that I haven't really gone into too much detail into explaining some of my opinions, but I would disagree that that points to me being SK or mafia. And I have already pointed out why those clue analysis are crap.
Just a couple of things to note though:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2011 21:02 Nemesis wrote:
Kav, I wouldn't judge bum yet as scum. The way he is appearing to me is more of an impulsive townie as in he doesn't think before he post, and then realizes that what he was suggesting was bad.
Still I would like to see his response.
Aw, he will always be town in my heart. Doesn't mean he is though, red like to cut the strings to other people fairly quickly if they see an outcome ahead of time. If I got lynched, and then the next day we find mafia umbers are the same, nemesis can say itoldyaso.
That is a rather big WIFOM. Although people were FoSing you, no one was voting for you so that means that you weren't even up for lynch, which makes it not only WIFOM, but wrong too.
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As for current lynch targets:
Mr.zergling - Looking at his post history, he usually posts a lot but a lot of it are one-liners or spam. In this game, he hasn't posted much, but if this keeps up I think he might be modkilled so I wouldn't really lynch him right now.
Coag - as mafia and as town, he rather posts a lot, although a lot of it is spam. I think he might be a good lynch candidate.
Nemesis - obviously I think he is a bad lynch candidate
RebirthofLegend - It seems like people are lynching him because he hasn't done much. Since we don't really have anything solid on him, I don't think it's a good idea to lynch him. But if he continues his rather passive play, I would push for his lynch too.
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Voting Mr. Zergling for now + seeing which inactives are in the possibility of getting modkilled. I'm willing to let RoL and Coag off the hook for now so that they can post more which would give us more information. They could be mafia they could be a blue trying to lay low, so after Night 2 there would be more info for them to analyze and give their thoughts about if they are indeed pro-town.
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United States22154 Posts
Well its going to be really funny if we have 10 or so modkills, anyway I'm not convinced in the least that Nemesis is mafia, yet his playstyle reminds me of how he played in MiniMafia IV where he was scum. I'm going to go back and read over his posts and see to what conclusion I arrive.
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Im gonna vote nemesis because i feel like him and his scumbuddys are trying to deflect the bandwagon on to me.
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On January 29 2011 07:20 GMarshal wrote:
Well its going to be really funny if we have 10 or so modkills
If by funny you mean terrible and frustrating, then yeah.
Right now I'm still undecided on Nemesis, and yes, I know my vote is on him. However, because I think RoL is town, I'm giving Coag a day to shape up, and bum's been very active/posting analysis, I'm sticking with Nem for now.
Currently RoL is the vote leader, which is not something I'm cool with. Are we really lynching him? I'd like to hear reasons why, there hasn't been a real unified case against him.
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United States22154 Posts
Because I dont think RoL merits a hanging yet (he has given a pretty good justification for not posting too much) and I suspect Coag is a blue of some sort, I'm going to go with nemesis for now, but I'll probably change it again before the night is out.
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On January 29 2011 07:25 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 07:20 GMarshal wrote:
Well its going to be really funny if we have 10 or so modkills If by funny you mean terrible and frustrating, then yeah. Right now I'm still undecided on Nemesis, and yes, I know my vote is on him. However, because I think RoL is town, I'm giving Coag a day to shape up, and bum's been very active/posting analysis, I'm sticking with Nem for now. Currently RoL is the vote leader, which is not something I'm cool with. Are we really lynching him? I'd like to hear reasons why, there hasn't been a real unified case against him.
I'd like to hear what you think of Mr. Zergling. So far, not many people have mentioned him at all while it seems he is a potential lynch candidate, or discussed the analysis on him, even though he has a couple votes on him.
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United States22154 Posts
Hmm, I didn't really give Mr. Zergling much consideration, I'll take a look now
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Bzzz, as I have said before, if you are going to vote to lynch me, at least state your reasons.
Brownbear, you seem to have analyzed all the other candidates except for me yet you are voting me? At least give your reason, and please don't say LD's clues are so good -.-
GMarshal, is that a bandwagon vote?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 24 2011 18:18 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I generally obsess over mafia games and read it for hours and hours each day until I die. As town I tend to post whenever I feel like it but as mafia I only post when I feel it is necessary. IE: I will feign inactivity to avoid commenting on a situation, or make sure I wait until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon. Usually if I do the latter I will purposely try to divert the lynch to a team mate that way if either one of us dies it makes the other look better via wifom.
This post doesn't help his case. He is active during the mayoral election ("when he feels it is necessary"), disappears after the day post ("feign inactivity") until the votes start to pile up against coag ("until its too late to reverse a stupid band wagon")
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On January 29 2011 07:31 Nemesis wrote:
Bzzz, as I have said before, if you are going to vote to lynch me, at least state your reasons.
Brownbear, you seem to have analyzed all the other candidates except for me yet you are voting me? At least give your reason, and please don't say LD's clues are so good -.-
GMarshal, is that a bandwagon vote?
Because I'm giving Coag a chance, I have already posted my reasoning behind not voting RoL, and I haven't really taken a look at Mr. Zergling yet. Honestly, I'm wondering why I haven't seen anything about him, yet there's votes on him. Secret bandwagon?
I'll try to throw up some analysis on Mr. Z, but I am heading to a rehearsal now, so I can't guarantee I'll get a full analysis done before the end of the day. I'll do my best, though.
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Guys I found this Shit. RoL, if you are here can you explain your contradiction?
Well, it isn't exactly a contradiction. This game he talks about everyone voice their opinion by doing analysis. In the other game, he talks about decision made by individual is better.
But it seems to be two different play style:
1) This game, he wants to hear opinions from others.
2) Other game, he thinks others as inferior or manipulated targets.
From this game: LINK
Here is how we counter this. Everyone fucking analyze everything. Do not EVER let one person do all the work, to win this game the town has to keep analyzing. Everyone has to analyze and we have to decide what has the most merit as a collective. If you have a few people doing analysis we will lose in this game faster and harder then in any other set up. Seriously guys. This isn't a fucking boot camp, this isn't some let us baby you set up. In this set up if you are lazy, if you fuck up, you lose us the game. This game requires an effort from EVERY townie to actually win and fuck if we get a mafia mayor then we are fucked. If any single person seems to be trying to take control of the town and who we lynch that is suspicious because channeling our lynches on the thoughts of one person who we can't prove there worth is going to make us die.
From Harry Potter Mafia (Town/Jack of All Trades): LINK
also you don't get it. A decent mafia team will manipulate the masses opinion against each other, while the town is shrouded in doubt the mafia knows what they want to do and don't hesitate to do it. By not acknowledging the mafia's pull with town you are basically saying that whatever the majorities opinion is is correct, which is stupid. Just because most people want something to be done doesn't mean its the right thing to do. The more people you involve in a decision the more likely you are to fuck it up. To use a real world example to show you how the majority doesn't do what is right you need to only look at gay marriage rights in the united states. When left to a majority vote in California it failed, because the majority of people are stupid and their opinions shouldn't be taken into account.
You shouldn't say what does the majority want, you should what is right, and by voting me you can accomplish that.
VOTE ROL!
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United States22154 Posts
On January 29 2011 07:31 Nemesis wrote:
Bzzz, as I have said before, if you are going to vote to lynch me, at least state your reasons.
Brownbear, you seem to have analyzed all the other candidates except for me yet you are voting me? At least give your reason, and please don't say LD's clues are so good -.-
GMarshal, is that a bandwagon vote?
Not really, there's actually a decent case against you, as I said its mostly a place holder though, Im just puting it off of coag because I feel like there was a random bandwagon forming against him.
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On January 29 2011 07:36 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 07:31 Nemesis wrote:
Bzzz, as I have said before, if you are going to vote to lynch me, at least state your reasons.
Brownbear, you seem to have analyzed all the other candidates except for me yet you are voting me? At least give your reason, and please don't say LD's clues are so good -.-
GMarshal, is that a bandwagon vote? Because I'm giving Coag a chance, I have already posted my reasoning behind not voting RoL, and I haven't really taken a look at Mr. Zergling yet. Honestly, I'm wondering why I haven't seen anything about him, yet there's votes on him. Secret bandwagon? I'll try to throw up some analysis on Mr. Z, but I am heading to a rehearsal now, so I can't guarantee I'll get a full analysis done before the end of the day. I'll do my best, though.
Yet that still doesn't give your reason for voting me.
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On January 29 2011 07:38 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 07:31 Nemesis wrote:
Bzzz, as I have said before, if you are going to vote to lynch me, at least state your reasons.
Brownbear, you seem to have analyzed all the other candidates except for me yet you are voting me? At least give your reason, and please don't say LD's clues are so good -.-
GMarshal, is that a bandwagon vote? Not really, there's actually a decent case against you, as I said its mostly a place holder though, Im just puting it off of coag because I feel like there was a random bandwagon forming against him.
Can you explain what that decent cast against me is then?
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My reasoning was, I put it on you at the beginning of the day for two reasons:
1) At the beginning, you had the strongest case against you in the clues, which you have since refuted, but also in a general unease at how you have been playing so far. You really didn't do all that much before people started suspecting you, and now you're doing nothing except defending yourself.
2)I try to vote at the beginning of the day, because I know sometimes I can vanish, due to shitty internet, work, partying, life outside TL, whatever. When I do vanish, that can lead to danger of modkill if I don't get back in time. So I throw a vote on whoever I think is most likely at the start of the day, then change it as new candidates come.
So far, nobody has come forward that looks more suspicious than you, so my vote remains on you.
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On January 29 2011 07:38 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 07:36 BrownBear wrote:On January 29 2011 07:31 Nemesis wrote:
Bzzz, as I have said before, if you are going to vote to lynch me, at least state your reasons.
Brownbear, you seem to have analyzed all the other candidates except for me yet you are voting me? At least give your reason, and please don't say LD's clues are so good -.-
GMarshal, is that a bandwagon vote? Because I'm giving Coag a chance, I have already posted my reasoning behind not voting RoL, and I haven't really taken a look at Mr. Zergling yet. Honestly, I'm wondering why I haven't seen anything about him, yet there's votes on him. Secret bandwagon? I'll try to throw up some analysis on Mr. Z, but I am heading to a rehearsal now, so I can't guarantee I'll get a full analysis done before the end of the day. I'll do my best, though. Yet that still doesn't give your reason for voting me.
bumatlarge did a huge analysis on you. I don't think you have yet to respond to it.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=184939¤tpage=44#868
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On January 29 2011 07:36 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2011 07:31 Nemesis wrote:
Bzzz, as I have said before, if you are going to vote to lynch me, at least state your reasons.
Brownbear, you seem to have analyzed all the other candidates except for me yet you are voting me? At least give your reason, and please don't say LD's clues are so good -.-
GMarshal, is that a bandwagon vote? Because I'm giving Coag a chance, I have already posted my reasoning behind not voting RoL, and I haven't really taken a look at Mr. Zergling yet. Honestly, I'm wondering why I haven't seen anything about him, yet there's votes on him. Secret bandwagon? I'll try to throw up some analysis on Mr. Z, but I am heading to a rehearsal now, so I can't guarantee I'll get a full analysis done before the end of the day. I'll do my best, though.
On January 29 2011 02:01 deconduo wrote:Mr. Zergling:+ Show Spoiler +On January 21 2011 11:25 Mr.Zergling wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2011 11:24 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
How does one run for mayoral election? By waiting till the game starts lol, I think it will all be explained then On January 22 2011 01:05 Mr.Zergling wrote:
woot On January 23 2011 14:54 Mr.Zergling wrote:
/confirm
Im waiting on my mayor vote till there is more than one candidate lol On January 24 2011 14:46 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Still no other mayor candidates? On January 25 2011 04:33 Mr.Zergling wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 03:36 LSB wrote:
Pandain and DoctorH have asked to be replaced.
Don't worry, there won't be modkills this game.
Edit: Hopefully Oh damn On January 26 2011 12:41 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Well, that was certainly a kick off...
Really weird not having flipping, I forgot there wasn't and came on just to see if we got a red xD That is every single one of his posts this game. Now, obviously I haven't been very active myself, but it is tough to come into a game 25 pages in. However, I'm pretty sure I've contributed a bit more than he has, and I will be posting more that I have caught up somewhat. In addition you have this as I said earlier: + Show Spoiler +
Clue:
Cue the clash of lightning.
Play the roar of thunder.
And make sure there is a shower of rain.
It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening.
I should explain.
Mr.Zergling's Profile:
Favorite Movie scene:
Cue, play, movie scene
There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going.
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing.
Is it raining?
Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a blowing?
Thunder, lightning, rain
Not a speck of light is showing
so the danger must be growing.
Are the fires of hell a glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
Scary Film/Bad Dream
For the rowers keep on rowing.
And they're certainly not showing
any signs that they are slowing!
Not only that, but this had been pointed out twice before: + Show Spoiler +On January 24 2011 12:53 Kavdragon wrote:A couple of things... The song lyrics are from a song called "Retrace" by anberlin http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AnberlinThis would fit with the "I'm writting in reverse" theme that was in the night post. Show nested quote +Cue the clash of lightning.
Play the roar of thunder.
And make sure there is a shower of rain.
It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. From Mr Zerglings's profile + Show Spoiler +Favorite Movie scene:
There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going.
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing.
Is it raining?
Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a blowing?
Not a speck of light is showing
so the danger must be growing.
Are the fires of hell a glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing.
And they're certainly not showing
any signs that they are slowing! Nothing huge, but something worth pointing out. On January 26 2011 13:50 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +First Part
Cue the clash of lightning.
Play the roar of thunder.
And make sure there is a shower of rain.
It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening.
I should explain. Mr. Zergling + Show Spoiler +Favorite Movie scene:
There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going.
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing.
Is it raining?
Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a blowing?
Not a speck of light is showing
so the danger must be growing.
Are the fires of hell a glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing.
And they're certainly not showing
any signs that they are slowing! Kavdragon pointed this out. From a movie, obviously, but it's about a rowboat (life is but a dream  )in some form a of precipitation. Closest I could find relating to a movie. Also he has the poem "The Raven" which is probably a long shot, but "just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain." could be something. A lot of people have videos, but none of them are too relevant. After Original Name, this seems fairly strong, and I looked hard, but couldn't find much on this part for anyone else. I don't think Kav really likes me now lol. Here. Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 08:30 bumatlarge wrote:On January 26 2011 08:21 Jackal58 wrote:On January 26 2011 08:12 bumatlarge wrote:A scum mayor is the worst scenario by far, regardless of anything else. This means we will never get information on town numbers. False-claims will be rampant, and it will turn into a clue-crapshoot. I want to avoid this at all cost. For this reason, I believe one of RoL or Kav is scum. It's just way to strong an opportunity to pass up. If we are luky, dr.H was the mafia claim, but seeing as how he had relatively no votes, I don't think this is a viable outcome to put your hopes in. I feel we should RNG our mayor :/ as right now we have a 50% shot at picking a scum mayor, or we can take a <25% chance at one. I'd like to hear thoughts. On a BG plan + Show Spoiler +We want to use the census as long as possible because it's basically 1/2 of a coroner everyday. I've been thinking this through and I believe the best option is to splice 4 and 5. Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.
Option 5: Mayoral preference: Mayor picks his bodyguards, they accept.
Upside: Kav/RoL are both good players, can probably select two greens.
Downside: Kav/RoL aren't infallible, scum mayor can basically screw town over with this by intentionally selecting blues (bluesniping) and making it look accidental when they die, gives all the power to the mayor, something we want to avoid.
Verdict: I don't like it, despite Kav kind of softly pushing for it. I'd vote against this plan. We have only 1 veteran claim. We should tell him to refresh the thread to avoid multiple claims. He will be first choice. Yes, mafia can claim it, but I'm not entirely sure mafia wants to which I will get to in a minute. The next BG will be chosen by Mayor. He will make the person is believes is most likely a vanilla town. If he is scum, then we can't be sure what he will do, but a mafia BG leaves a nice SK target on his back. So this would ultimately lead to how badly the other factions want the mayor to die. With 30 people in the game, I believe there are several set-ups. 5 mafia, 2-3SKs. 6-7 mafia, 1-2 SKs 7-8 mafia, No SKs (8 seems highly unlikely) With a rough 25% of players being non-town, BG chosen by mayor has a good chance of being town. With more mafia then veterans, statistically mafia will be more likely to be 2nd BG. I believe SK has no real purpose in trying to kill mayor within first 3 days. As a lone-wolf, he benefits from information brought to town, and he can blend well until medics and vets start getting counted. He can't really fake why he survived a hit if a mafia about to get lynched accuses him of being an SK. Ultimately, SK wants mayor to state how many mafia, SKs, one other blue role to keep his clam safe. SK should be preoccupied with DT and mafia sniping. For this reason, I do not like censusing DTs til later on, so SKs won't feel safe enough to hit mayor. Mafia then will take a stab at non-townie mayor very early on. Medics should take a high-priority in protecting BGs, and if both die and mayor is alive, I don't think you should take it off him. On January 16 2011 15:03 Node wrote:
Mayor
You are the elected leader of the town. Elections will take place on day 1. When elected, you will publicly select two bodyguards to protect you for the rest of the game. While bodyguards are alive, you cannot be targeted by night hits or the roleblocker. Role checks on you will return “Mayor”. Don't think that's an option. What isn't? RNG mayor? There are ways, as in everyone posts a number between 1-2, and we add them up. The probability of scum landing a mayor this way is miniscule, and attempting to tamper with it will most likely get screwed. Here I'll start. 2 I cannot change it, and now d3 will be our choice until the next person posts a number. If we set a deadline, mafia can't wait til the last minute. Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 08:37 bumatlarge wrote:
Let's just see how many people do it. Current number is 3, and numbers don't count after 8:00 est which is in 1&1/2 hours. GMarshal will be our mayor! :D I gave an idea to determine mayor randomly off the top of my head. You are really gonna drill me for anRNG plan to demonstrate how a mayor would be picked? I knew I would have to extend the time if it was to hold any water, so if you legitimately think I was trying to sway it away from you in that time, I don't know what to say. Hope you are gonna post more then this if you do an analysis. I wasn't there early enough to give my opinion that 2 candidates weren't enough to mean anything, but I stand by that. And yet, he has not responded to it, In fact, both those posts went completely ignored. I find this curious. All the discussion is between the RoL and Nemesis clues, (which are pretty damning as well I admit) but this has been passed by. If he is scum, his buddies are purposely trying to divert attention onto RoL/Nemesis and trying to not draw attention to the clues against him. In summary -Lurker -Significant clue points towards him -Hasn't responded to the clues -Clues have gone ignored by other people as well
Deconduo has made this analysis in addition to the ones he quotes. It's just people are ignoring or are ignorant of the suspicions placed on him. It just doesn't look good that no one has even replied to any of this but are naming others with similar analysis as lynch candidates.
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Quick thoughts on Mr. Zergling:
Total posts since start of game: four. Yep. Four.
A quick look over of his profile didn't throw up any obvious clue connections, but I could have missed them easily. Jumping into his four posts:
On January 23 2011 14:54 Mr.Zergling wrote:
/confirm
Im waiting on my mayor vote till there is more than one candidate lol
Useless post, moving on:
On January 24 2011 14:46 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Still no other mayor candidates?
Still useless, moving on:
On January 25 2011 04:33 Mr.Zergling wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 03:36 LSB wrote:
Pandain and DoctorH have asked to be replaced.
Don't worry, there won't be modkills this game.
Edit: Hopefully Oh damn
Jesus, and I thought Coag was bad.
On January 26 2011 12:41 Mr.Zergling wrote:
Well, that was certainly a kick off...
Really weird not having flipping, I forgot there wasn't and came on just to see if we got a red xD
...
Verdict: I don't even know where to begin. He's successfully flown under the radar this entire game. I think we should start pressuring him to be more active, or it's the noose for him.
I'll give him the same calling-out spiel I gave Coag: Step up your game or swing tomorrow.
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EPT
