EPTAlso the OP will be updated with available roles soon and will be finalized by tomorrow afternoon. I'm just tweaking some stuff to see what new roles I'm rolling with.
Pick Your Power Mafia 3! - Page 6
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Also the OP will be updated with available roles soon and will be finalized by tomorrow afternoon. I'm just tweaking some stuff to see what new roles I'm rolling with. | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 02 2011 01:51 LSB wrote: + Show Spoiler + Firstly, as always, I don't really start planning or scumhunting until I get my role PM. So I don't really want to get into too much detail about what I'm going to do Number selection portion I don't believe this area is enforceable. My first post in this game will probably be announcing I chose the numbers [5][1] The thing that is able to be controlled is revealing the plan after the numbers were selected. This way, mafia maneuvers won't really matter. Now, this is placing a significant amount of trust on one person. However, the Egyptian Pyramid Builder method works well here. All we do is kill me day one and see if I'm red or blue. Role Selection Portion Rastaban's plan was clearly superior in this field. Yes he probably placed importance on the wrong areas, but this can be fixed When we look at PYP 2 we see that there actually wasn't that much clash + Show Spoiler + rastaban - (CV) chaoser-(Bad Santa) LSB - (Traitor) Hesmyrr (CV) - VT Inentional zeks (Role Cop) SouthRawrea (Traitor) - VT Subversion (Role Cop)-VS Fishball (Bullet Bill) ~Opz~ (Meth Man) citi.zen (Tracker) BrownBear (Meth Man) - VT JeeJee (Doctor) - (rolled Normal) DarthThienAn (CC) siNiquity (Tracker) - VT Divinek (DV) Radfield (copy Cat) - VT Bill Murray (Mason) bumatlarge (watcher) Pandain (Martyr) We take out Hesmyrr, who intentionally clashed with someone else, and then we see that 3 people clashed. This is a 3/18 rate. 17% In PYP1, there was less roles, so yes there should be less clash. But the amount of people who actually choose roles was much less. + Show Spoiler + Bill Murray (Inventor) [NyC]HoBbes (Meth Man) Radfield (SK) (floridian) d3_crescentia (Doc - Weak) 8 Korynne (Vanilla Town) 10 Foolishness (scum) (CV) 11 JeeJee [6][1] (meth man)->(Vanilla) 12 sidesprang (scum) (Scum Weak Doctor) 13 Scamp (Doc - Normal) 14 ~Opz~ (CV) (Vanilla) 16 Qatol (CC) ->(Vanilla Town) 18 DarthThienAn (scum) (DV) 19 Zona (scum) (Pardoner) We take out everyone who didn't chose a role, and see that there are 4 clashes 4/13 is a 31% rate. The main issue with your plan Qatol is that it left a lot of townies to choose their roles up for themselves. And when this happened, it was left up to the dice. A lot of townies quickly tried to grab important roles, bumping into each other. Radfield's plan was nice because it had significantly more roles. 9 roles Vrs. 16. In reality. There were enough blues that the town didn't really need to scumhunt. I assume you mean your vanilla role, otherwise you are wasting a significant amount of time.  I'm just warning you that I believe announcing your numbers before the drafting order is revealed is suboptimal because it reduces the odds of a conflict in numbers. Also most good plans don't need to get the formulator killed - the whole point of them is they make logical sense to everyone. Killing yourself to earn trust is a weakness to almost any plan because people won't follow it unless it makes sense to them regardless of whether or not they trust your intentions. As for clashing, you mischaracterize the facts somewhat. First of all, the mafia disrupted the role selection/assignment more in PYP1 than they did in PYP2 (partially because role assignment hadn't been accepted as the proper course of action) - 2 of those clashes were because mafia selected the role 1 spot higher than the town person assigned to select said role. Out of the 4 clashes you identify, 3 of the players who ended up with vanilla roles from clashing were assigned a selection or small group of selections, so it wasn't really because the townies were left to select roles on their own. Second of all, why did you discount Hesmyrr but not OpZ when he was also likely to clash with someone with their pick based on his assignment (he was told to either take CompVig, Inventor, or JOAT even though 2 of those had already been assigned)? I agree that the organization of the PYP2 method was better, but I still think that PYP1 had it beat in some areas (number selection in particular). On January 02 2011 04:12 Fishball wrote: I try not to remember much from this game, because this was the most frustrating game I've ever played. One man Mafia team with 1 KP against entire town? Yeah. I thought Radfield's plan was alright. It limited our options, but we were somewhat ready for it (Somewhat due to our minimal coordination). As for the other details you're trying to debate with LSB; Sure, the plan has it's weakness, but I have no comment here since I don't really want to stick my nose in. Just keep in mind it was almost a unanimous decision for the players to go with Radfield's plan. There were people that disagreed, but no one else were able to throw out a better plan. Definitely not from the Mafia at the very least. I wouldn't go as far to call his plan anti-town at all (from your first post). I saw it as a misdirection attempt which looked good on paper but resulted in the town picking the wrong roles and giving the mafia extremely favorable roles | ||
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 02 2011 06:57 Fishball wrote: I don't exactly know what you mean by "extremely favorable roles" were given to the Mafia. Basically the top picks were all pretty much forced to role claim, and under surveillance due to the plan. Besides the lol-traitor, there really were no surprises, and it didn't matter if you were town or not for the respective roles. Roleblocker and JOAT slipped past the screening entirely. How is veteran a higher priority pick than JOAT? | ||
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
If you want to pick on every single detail for debate, I'll leave LSB with you to do that. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On January 02 2011 06:31 Qatol wrote: I'm just warning you that I believe announcing your numbers before the drafting order is revealed is suboptimal because it reduces the odds of a conflict in numbers. Also most good plans don't need to get the formulator killed - the whole point of them is they make logical sense to everyone. Killing yourself to earn trust is a weakness to almost any plan because people won't follow it unless it makes sense to them regardless of whether or not they trust your intentions. Although conflict in numbers can be used to generate a list of who is probably mafia, it can be beat. All mafia has to do is assigning two people. [1][1] and [1][2], and your plan falls to shambles. By me publically announcing that I will be taking [5][1] at the beginning of the game. We know if anyone intentionally tries to take a [5][X], something is up with that person. Probably what's going to happen is we'll try to get most of the plan before the number selection occurs, so people are on board. As for clashing, you mischaracterize the facts somewhat. First of all, the mafia disrupted the role selection/assignment more in PYP1 than they did in PYP2 (partially because role assignment hadn't been accepted as the proper course of action) - 2 of those clashes were because mafia selected the role 1 spot higher than the town person assigned to select said role. Out of the 4 clashes you identify, 3 of the players who ended up with vanilla roles from clashing were assigned a selection or small group of selections, so it wasn't really because the townies were left to select roles on their own. Second of all, why did you discount Hesmyrr but not OpZ when he was also likely to clash with someone with their pick based on his assignment (he was told to either take CompVig, Inventor, or JOAT even though 2 of those had already been assigned)? I agree that the organization of the PYP2 method was better, but I still think that PYP1 had it beat in some areas (number selection in particular). Indeed, the same happened with PYP2, the people who had clashes were assigned as part of a group of selections. The thing was, the reason why it was far less was because it was generally organized. Immediately the plan guaranteed the first 3 roles be picked. And also the Bullet Bill / DT be picked. But remember, the more roles the better. Although the mafia can get it's hands on a few good roles. What won the game last time was the mass of imbalanced town roles. iirc, the purpose of not selecting the JOAT, was so that we'd know anyone with a gun was mafia. That way the bullet bill became a 100% scumdar Now, I have in mind a plan, but as always, I don't want to screw myself over if I turn out to be mafia. | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 02 2011 08:11 LSB wrote: Although conflict in numbers can be used to generate a list of who is probably mafia, it can be beat. All mafia has to do is assigning two people. [1][1] and [1][2], and your plan falls to shambles. By me publically announcing that I will be taking [5][1] at the beginning of the game. We know if anyone intentionally tries to take a [5][X], something is up with that person. Probably what's going to happen is we'll try to get most of the plan before the number selection occurs, so people are on board. Indeed, the same happened with PYP2, the people who had clashes were assigned as part of a group of selections. The thing was, the reason why it was far less was because it was generally organized. Immediately the plan guaranteed the first 3 roles be picked. And also the Bullet Bill / DT be picked. But remember, the more roles the better. Although the mafia can get it's hands on a few good roles. What won the game last time was the mass of imbalanced town roles. iirc, the purpose of not selecting the JOAT, was so that we'd know anyone with a gun was mafia. That way the bullet bill became a 100% scumdar Now, I have in mind a plan, but as always, I don't want to screw myself over if I turn out to be mafia. I don't think you're understanding me with the numbers. Here's the thing: conflicts favor the town. This has nothing to do with the number thing from PYP1 (which even then I said would only work for that game). The difference is the scum selections are coordinated. They are aiming to get their members into certain parts of the draft. If players pick the same numbers as them, they have to change their plans and may have to make suboptimal role selections. This is in the town's favor. Also, if someone else selects [5][X], it doesn't mean they are scum or even suspicious. It means they think that you should not be drafting early, probably because they do not trust you. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
For example, say 1,2,3,4,5 are publically claimed. Sure, the mafia could pick six, however, they will always be behind the people who picked the first five numbers. Fishball, how successful were you at getting the people into the right spots? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Like Qatol said, clashing favors town. Look at how dangerous things got in PYP1. When players clash you know for a fact that there is a good chance they both can't be scum. The more clashing you have, the faster you can divide people into groups and start asking people to claim numbers. If you all call out your numbers early on the Mafia have nothing to fear. No one clashes, everyone "goes in order" and the Mafia pick as they please. Realize that Scum really don't need certain roles to win as much as the Town needs some of the big ones. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
Although Inactivity played a part. The Mafia didn't lose PYP2 just because of inactivity, the chief reason was because over half the town was confirmed and we couldn't do anything about it, and no one anticipated how broken the bad santa role can be. Yes I see you have a point about clashing. But remember, the mafia already knows that the town might use clashing as a scumtell. It would be incredibly easy for the mafia to pick 2 [1][X] slots and then simply redirect the town to clashing. The town would waste lots of time trying to fit things under the clashing theory, when all that would be accomplished is 'confirming' a mafia. Just like how Mafia IV will probably not happen again, clashing is a theory that probably won't work | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Yes I see you have a point about clashing. But remember, the mafia already knows that the town might use clashing as a scumtell. Well see, that's the fun part ^_^. Bad Santa is going to be removed. I have a few other roles that I'll throw in. I'm just trying to decide which ones to put in at the moment. | ||
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HaploPaithan
United States100 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 02 2011 09:47 LSB wrote: Just like how Mafia IV will probably not happen again, clashing is a theory that probably won't work Heh and clearly this is the real reason I don't play much any more. My plans all work once and then never again and I'd rather not be an average player! But at least games where my plans happened are legendary! In all seriousness, clashing will work just fine. It still prevents the mafia from controlling the draft phase as much as they would like. The only thing that won't work again is the number theory because the mafia can always intentionally clash to beat it. And even though they probably won't, the possibility is still there. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On January 02 2011 11:14 Qatol wrote: Heh and clearly this is the real reason I don't play much any more. My plans all work once and then never again and I'd rather not be an average player! But at least games where my plans happened are legendary! It's all right. Teamwork is overrated. Gogo Kill everyone else in the game plan!! | ||
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
On January 02 2011 09:47 LSB wrote: Using blue font is unfair Ace. Throws tantrum Although Inactivity played a part. The Mafia didn't lose PYP2 just because of inactivity, the chief reason was because over half the town was confirmed and we couldn't do anything about it, and no one anticipated how broken the bad santa role can be. Yes I see you have a point about clashing. But remember, the mafia already knows that the town might use clashing as a scumtell. It would be incredibly easy for the mafia to pick 2 [1][X] slots and then simply redirect the town to clashing. The town would waste lots of time trying to fit things under the clashing theory, when all that would be accomplished is 'confirming' a mafia. Just like how Mafia IV will probably not happen again, clashing is a theory that probably won't work If I were to say it with numbers, the loss is due to 50% inactivity, 25% Mafia 1 KP, 15% Bad Santa List, 10% when rastaban pulled a wrong move at the end, and our last thin hope of victory vanished. The Bad Santa was an extremely unlucky break for the Mafia, but it was rastaban's kill that sealed the deal, though I don't really blame him, and we shouldn't have been in that position in the first place. Yes, inactivity hurt us(me) a shit load. There were times I thought it just wasn't worth playing anymore, as I wasn't enjoying the game at all. Just ask Ace and the PM's I had with him. I never made a post about it, but you have no idea how pissed off I was when DarthThienAn decided to host a game after PYP2, when he rather play SC2 and be inactive during PYP2. I have no respect for him whatsoever. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Past game mods, if you see anyone currently on the list that is known for being inactive, barely avoiding mod-kill thresholds, or ruining games let me know via PM. Thank you. Any one else can still sign-up. Experienced players have preference over new players for this setup. | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
A) Successfully protects a hit B) Kills someone C) Is supppse to kill someone but that person is protected/bulletproof? | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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