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Not to just to jump in and FOS someone randomly, but what do people think of deconduo? After looking through his last few posts (edit he only posted 10 times in the thread :/) I see that he posts even worse than I did in the first few days. Im too lazy to quote all his posts but take a look yourself:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=deconduo
what his posts say according to me
1 /in
2 he agree with what insanious wrote for the most part
3 question
4 lurkers are bad
5 gabe is too confrontational to be mafia (contradicts post #2 with the pandain vs docH bit)
6 lol post
7 Got no time, suspicious of one bandwagon, so he will join the other
8 responds to kavdragon about post 7, restates post 7
9 Time to vote Gabe because he is scummy
10 jumps into the thread, underlines analytical post by insanious that FoS DCLXVI
I don't know how he has managed to make it this far through the game without being called out. A few people I saw briefly had (kav, LSB i think) but this is ridiculous. I may have posted bad early in the game, but if this isn't flat out the scummiest person right now then lynch me instead. Shockeyy has been making himself out to be scum for a while, d3 may be mewtwo, I may suck at contributing, but this? If you can convince me that d3 is mewtwo and why we should kill mewtwo now I'll stay voting d3, but people need to look at deconduo. At least have him as one of the two targets for tomorrow if you all think that it is too late to lynch him now. I don't want to fracture the towns voting power by introducing another target, but I am sure deconduo is scum
sorry for being so argumentative lately, I just like to argue too much I guess. More content does not mean arguing I see.
and yeah math says we need double lynch tomorrow and a hit tonight, voting
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Umm, I am a bit confused brocket. How did you go from this post
On December 16 2010 16:39 Brocket wrote:
Satisfactory analyses, well done gentlemen.
DCLXVI even bought attention to himself about the two voters against him being eliminated via analysing insanious. So it's a sign of honesty but the fact is still suss. I'm still not trusting Gabe because of kenpachi+ jcarl.
d3 hasn't been very consistent, that much is true. Why is it that townies seem to crumble when they are accused, you've got nothing to hide, don't make things worse by blurting out names and getting unnecessarily offended by accusation.
To this:
On December 17 2010 15:57 Brocket wrote:
So I heard you like double lynching.
Yeh it's going to happen. Just figure out who is suss again?
I'm a bit uneasy about DC, sure he's been helpful but he had 2 accusers that got eliminated. Gabe also has had his accusers lynched (apart from me) and escaped the noose twice.
There was LSB who said mafia may set GAbe up. But really not likely. Maybe they can make it more obvious that they're trying hard to set up gabe if they kill me night 2. Then maybe gabe is townie after all via LSB's logic. Do you really buy that?
If I am reading this right you say in the first post I look a little more innocent and gabe looks guilty, then you completely flip and say the opposite? Do you have reasons for doing so?
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The day will end a little bit earlier than usual tomorrow, at around 6PM PST.
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I wasn't aware we were in such a situation. :S Double lynch it is!
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I think that we all can agree that double lynch is needed.
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On December 17 2010 16:06 DCLXVI wrote:Not to just to jump in and FOS someone randomly, but what do people think of deconduo? After looking through his last few posts (edit he only posted 10 times in the thread :/) I see that he posts even worse than I did in the first few days. Im too lazy to quote all his posts but take a look yourself: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=deconduowhat his posts say according to me 1 /in 2 he agree with what insanious wrote for the most part 3 question 4 lurkers are bad 5 gabe is too confrontational to be mafia (contradicts post #2 with the pandain vs docH bit) 6 lol post 7 Got no time, suspicious of one bandwagon, so he will join the other 8 responds to kavdragon about post 7, restates post 7 9 Time to vote Gabe because he is scummy 10 jumps into the thread, underlines analytical post by insanious that FoS DCLXVI I don't know how he has managed to make it this far through the game without being called out. A few people I saw briefly had (kav, LSB i think) but this is ridiculous. I may have posted bad early in the game, but if this isn't flat out the scummiest person right now then lynch me instead. Shockeyy has been making himself out to be scum for a while, d3 may be mewtwo, I may suck at contributing, but this? If you can convince me that d3 is mewtwo and why we should kill mewtwo now I'll stay voting d3, but people need to look at deconduo. At least have him as one of the two targets for tomorrow if you all think that it is too late to lynch him now. I don't want to fracture the towns voting power by introducing another target, but I am sure deconduo is scumsorry for being so argumentative lately, I just like to argue too much I guess. More content does not mean arguing I see. and yeah math says we need double lynch tomorrow and a hit tonight, voting
Wait, so it's a crime for me to summarize posts and comment on them but not for you? I hope you see the hypocrisy here...
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You know, I wasn't going to do this originally, but events have taken a shift to the worse at this point for me, especially since I likely won't be back until the Night post. Firstly and foremostly:
I am Mewtwo.
I killed Meapak on Night 1 and DTA on Night 2. Meapak because I could, DTA because I had an inkling he was hiding something. As it turns out, sadly, he was an Alakazam. For that matter, I am thinking LSB is our second Alakazam (if he isn't mafia), seeing as he identified me so quickly as Mewtwo. I still remain suspicious of Infundibulum, who was one to point out the possibility. Likely he checked me, found out I was a Pikachu and then read an analysis and came to that conclusion. If he isn't dead by tomorrow, then I would vote him for sure.
I have been aggressively trying to push the town to hunt and find scum as it currently benefits me to kill them. Quite frankly, it won't benefit me to kill the town until after Day 5-6 or so. As it stands, though, I am already pressed for time and it looks that a number of you are already pushing to kill me.
I've laid out the three situations which you face, whether you choose to kill me or not today, and the ramifications of doing so. Let's suppose the worst - that you DO end up killing me. Here's what you can expect in the future:
![[image loading]](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v312/vdraconis/figA.png)
I've labeled this situation 'A'. We'll start at the top, with subsituation A.1, where the town manages to hit its double lynch tomorrow. In fact, this is the ideal situation, since the score is left at 12/4 in favor of town, which means another 3 days of survival. In A.2, town misses one of its lynches, and is forced to use another double the day afterwards. Again, if you hit both you get off scot-free, for only 2 days this time. If you miss, though... well, you can't afford to miss again. With a 100% lynch rate after Day 5, you'll end up at 4T/3M... and you'll NEED to continue that trend of 100% accuracy. Anything else is really a LOSS for the town.
![[image loading]](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v312/vdraconis/figB.png)
In situation 'B', I am spared by your infinite kindness. In fact, I've assumed the best - you ARE able to find mafia in the rest of the short day we have, and lynch them. Again, in situation 1, should you hit your double lynch tomorrow, you are quite safe for another 2 days. I think this is actually pretty ideal for town, as you can then proceed to lynch me at your leisure. In fact, I might continue to help you, as it would benefit me to figure out what roles everyone is. In the other situations, the town would benefit more from lynching at least 1 Mafia and possibly myself. Please note that lynching 2 Mafia will give you the freedom to lynch me whenever you like, lynching 1 Mafia would require that you lynch me soon, and lynching myself and a townie (or two townies) yields a LOSS.
![[image loading]](http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v312/vdraconis/figC-2.png)
In situation 'C', all of you bandwagon onto some innocent townie... but not all hope is lost, as your friend d3_crescentia remains alive. Killing 2 mafia tomorrow will yield the best result for you, as is expected. If I make a mistake and kill a townie the subsequent night, you can get survive with finding only 1 mafia member and lynching me for the other one. If I don't miss, though, you'll be at and 8/3; good odds for the number of misses you've made thus far. However, if the town misses a lynch on Day 4, then you will most definitely need me for any hopes of winning. Lynching 1 Mafia 1 Townie will give you either situation 3 or 4. In situation 3, my NK has missed and hit a town member, but together we still have a chance to win. You will definitely need to vote double lynch and hit two scum, and you will definitely need MY vote as well. In situation 4, the town fares a little better, as they don't depend on the third party vote... but they will still need to hit both lynches. As for situations 5 and 6, they are the result of if you choose to lynch me, or if (heaven forbid) you fail to lynch either me or a mafia member at all.
Thus, the question remains - do you lynch me today or tomorrow? Do we have better candidates thus far? I must admit, situation A looks pretty ideal if you hit your lynches tomorrow.
Let me ask you this? Who's going to organize the town? Who's going to push people to vote? Who's going to offer adequate analysis? Kavdragon? LSB? Not when they're DEAD tomorrow, since mafia seem to be targeting the most active players. They might even stack a few hits on one of them... or they might outright ignore you and go for numbers, especially if town leaderships' analyses are dead wrong. They might even be kind to you and give you one of theirs that you ARE right on, but that won't make your road any easier since you virtually HAVE to hit 100% of your lynches.
But suppose you're like me, and you don't have the greatest confidence that you can manage to hit all of the lynches tomorrow, let alone 100%. If you'll point me to a target, I can confirm their allegiance quickly and efficiently. This is two-fold: one, you can at least semi-confirm me to be either M2 or Mafia, as Mafia might just target the same person as I do tonight, which means MORE live townies. You might be able to get away with surviving another day.
Let's strike a bargain - you DON'T lynch me, and I continue to hunt scum for you tonight. If I miss, it won't change that you absolutely HAVE to lynch 2 mafia tomorrow, or that if you miss you'll have to double lynch again. The key difference is that you'll have someone gunning for them on your side. Of course, the better result would be if YOU didn't miss, and found an actual mafia today, right now.
Vote deconduo. Vote brocket. Vote anyone, because at this point no matter who you vote for you're likely screwed... though if you DON'T vote me, you might be a little less screwed.
Now I've got to get to work and go pick up my sister. If I'm still alive 16+ hours from now then you can be sure I'll be working on your side. If not, I hope TR wins, because they certainly deserve to at this point.
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One more thing, the first figure should be labeled A.
That... kind of ruins the whole evil tone I was going for, but it doesn't make it any less true.
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And one more thing... Situation A.4 is virtually identical to A.3 in that you need a 100% lynch rate until Day 7 if you screw up Day 4's lynch utterly.
OKAY NOW TO WORK
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
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What. D3 did you just give up?
I'll take up your offer though. As I said, TR is in a good position to win and town will need something big (like this) to bring it back.
SUPPORT D3, DO NOT LYNCH
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On December 17 2010 21:43 flamewheel wrote:
5/5
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On December 17 2010 16:32 DCLXVI wrote:Umm, I am a bit confused brocket. How did you go from this post Show nested quote +On December 16 2010 16:39 Brocket wrote:
Satisfactory analyses, well done gentlemen.
DCLXVI even bought attention to himself about the two voters against him being eliminated via analysing insanious. So it's a sign of honesty but the fact is still suss. I'm still not trusting Gabe because of kenpachi+ jcarl.
d3 hasn't been very consistent, that much is true. Why is it that townies seem to crumble when they are accused, you've got nothing to hide, don't make things worse by blurting out names and getting unnecessarily offended by accusation.
To this: Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 15:57 Brocket wrote:
So I heard you like double lynching.
Yeh it's going to happen. Just figure out who is suss again?
I'm a bit uneasy about DC, sure he's been helpful but he had 2 accusers that got eliminated. Gabe also has had his accusers lynched (apart from me) and escaped the noose twice.
There was LSB who said mafia may set GAbe up. But really not likely. Maybe they can make it more obvious that they're trying hard to set up gabe if they kill me night 2. Then maybe gabe is townie after all via LSB's logic. Do you really buy that?
If I am reading this right you say in the first post I look a little more innocent and gabe looks guilty, then you completely flip and say the opposite? Do you have reasons for doing so?
I didn't say you were off the hook DC. I was implying that since I don't trust gabe I also don't trust you in the 1st quote. There is no flipping and no 'little more' innocent. You're both suss. Get my point?
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I'd rather let Mewtoo win then give mafia a perfect game.
This will be the game where Town/SK wins.
Please vote Shockeyy and double lynch everyone.
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On December 17 2010 21:43 flamewheel wrote:
5/5
this fucking guy 
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I want everyone to take a clear position.
Do you support D3 or not?
I support him because we have a better chance of winning by working with him.
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Mewtwo can't win now... since 2 town can lynch mewtwo.
Mafia can win by killing us and then they need to lynch mewtwo.
As such, mewtwo is an ally up till when we have to kill him.
Therefore, I support Mewtwo.
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On December 17 2010 16:06 DCLXVI wrote:Not to just to jump in and FOS someone randomly, but what do people think of deconduo? After looking through his last few posts (edit he only posted 10 times in the thread :/) I see that he posts even worse than I did in the first few days. Im too lazy to quote all his posts but take a look yourself: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=deconduowhat his posts say according to me 1 /in 2 he agree with what insanious wrote for the most part 3 question 4 lurkers are bad 5 gabe is too confrontational to be mafia (contradicts post #2 with the pandain vs docH bit) 6 lol post 7 Got no time, suspicious of one bandwagon, so he will join the other 8 responds to kavdragon about post 7, restates post 7 9 Time to vote Gabe because he is scummy 10 jumps into the thread, underlines analytical post by insanious that FoS DCLXVI I don't know how he has managed to make it this far through the game without being called out. A few people I saw briefly had (kav, LSB i think) but this is ridiculous. I may have posted bad early in the game, but if this isn't flat out the scummiest person right now then lynch me instead. Shockeyy has been making himself out to be scum for a while, d3 may be mewtwo, I may suck at contributing, but this? If you can convince me that d3 is mewtwo and why we should kill mewtwo now I'll stay voting d3, but people need to look at deconduo. At least have him as one of the two targets for tomorrow if you all think that it is too late to lynch him now. I don't want to fracture the towns voting power by introducing another target, but I am sure deconduo is scumsorry for being so argumentative lately, I just like to argue too much I guess. More content does not mean arguing I see. and yeah math says we need double lynch tomorrow and a hit tonight, voting
Not to make excuses or anything, but I'm having a lot more fun in the Harry Potter game. Having no PMs is a bit crippling for me as I've found out in this game, as I do a load of work through them normally. I'll make an effort to contribute a bit more though.
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Well its pretty clear why the mafia are now...
Its a pity that there isn't enough active townies to stop them...
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On December 18 2010 02:54 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 17 2010 16:06 DCLXVI wrote:Not to just to jump in and FOS someone randomly, but what do people think of deconduo? After looking through his last few posts (edit he only posted 10 times in the thread :/) I see that he posts even worse than I did in the first few days. Im too lazy to quote all his posts but take a look yourself: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=deconduowhat his posts say according to me 1 /in 2 he agree with what insanious wrote for the most part 3 question 4 lurkers are bad 5 gabe is too confrontational to be mafia (contradicts post #2 with the pandain vs docH bit) 6 lol post 7 Got no time, suspicious of one bandwagon, so he will join the other 8 responds to kavdragon about post 7, restates post 7 9 Time to vote Gabe because he is scummy 10 jumps into the thread, underlines analytical post by insanious that FoS DCLXVI I don't know how he has managed to make it this far through the game without being called out. A few people I saw briefly had (kav, LSB i think) but this is ridiculous. I may have posted bad early in the game, but if this isn't flat out the scummiest person right now then lynch me instead. Shockeyy has been making himself out to be scum for a while, d3 may be mewtwo, I may suck at contributing, but this? If you can convince me that d3 is mewtwo and why we should kill mewtwo now I'll stay voting d3, but people need to look at deconduo. At least have him as one of the two targets for tomorrow if you all think that it is too late to lynch him now. I don't want to fracture the towns voting power by introducing another target, but I am sure deconduo is scumsorry for being so argumentative lately, I just like to argue too much I guess. More content does not mean arguing I see. and yeah math says we need double lynch tomorrow and a hit tonight, voting Not to make excuses or anything, but I'm having a lot more fun in the Harry Potter game. Having no PMs is a bit crippling for me as I've found out in this game, as I do a load of work through them normally. I'll make an effort to contribute a bit more though.
Deconduo get an replacement or pay attention and switch your vote off of D3
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EPT
