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On December 08 2010 04:17 Radfield wrote:
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing??
Was this a soft claim that you and Eiii are scum and that we should lynch you today and tomorrow? Interesting...
Also, now that I'm outed there is no chance for me to get hit by the mafia tonight, so my role is null unless we use it.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2010 04:28 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 04:17 Radfield wrote:
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing?? Was this a soft claim that you and Eiii are scum and that we should lynch you today and tomorrow? Interesting... Also, now that I'm outed there is no chance for me to get hit by the mafia tonight, so my role is null unless we use it.
Are you joking? I assume you're referring to this sentence:
+ Show Spoiler +If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal).
Obviously lynching me today is just as much an auto-loss as lynching you(the MH). I'm trying to show that this is a bad idea in principle, and that this is not the optimum strategy right now. Using your role is not a priority by any stretch.
Also, there is a very good chance you will get hit by mafia tonight, since at least one of your bombs is on a townie.
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On December 08 2010 04:39 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 04:28 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 04:17 Radfield wrote:
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing?? Was this a soft claim that you and Eiii are scum and that we should lynch you today and tomorrow? Interesting... Also, now that I'm outed there is no chance for me to get hit by the mafia tonight, so my role is null unless we use it. Are you joking? I assume you're referring to this sentence: + Show Spoiler +If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). Obviously lynching me today is just as much an auto-loss as lynching you(the MH). I'm trying to show that this is a bad idea in principle, and that this is not the optimum strategy right now. Using your role is not a priority by any stretch. Also, there is a very good chance you will get hit by mafia tonight, since at least one of your bombs is on a townie.
Also, I would like to point out that we are not trying to "stifle discussion". Kitaman and I brought up the idea at the beginning of the day, almost 48 hours ago. Very little discussion occurred. We are now on the final leg of the day and a decision needs to be made, so I made one. It's not like at the beginning of the day we were like "SHHHHH THIS IS WHAT WE'RE GONNA DO AND TO ALL THOSE WHO OPPOSE WE CAN'T HEAR YOU". No.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2010 04:44 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 04:39 Radfield wrote:On December 08 2010 04:28 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 04:17 Radfield wrote:
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing?? Was this a soft claim that you and Eiii are scum and that we should lynch you today and tomorrow? Interesting... Also, now that I'm outed there is no chance for me to get hit by the mafia tonight, so my role is null unless we use it. Are you joking? I assume you're referring to this sentence: + Show Spoiler +If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). Obviously lynching me today is just as much an auto-loss as lynching you(the MH). I'm trying to show that this is a bad idea in principle, and that this is not the optimum strategy right now. Using your role is not a priority by any stretch. Also, there is a very good chance you will get hit by mafia tonight, since at least one of your bombs is on a townie. Also, I would like to point out that we are not trying to "stifle discussion". Kitaman and I brought up the idea at the beginning of the day, almost 48 hours ago. Very little discussion occurred. We are now on the final leg of the day and a decision needs to be made, so I made one. It's not like at the beginning of the day we were like "SHHHHH THIS IS WHAT WE'RE GONNA DO AND TO ALL THOSE WHO OPPOSE WE CAN'T HEAR YOU". No.
Agreed. I wasn't insinuating you guys are trying to pull a fast one. Realize though that this morning was the first time I could get online(Satellite Inet + Storm =  ).
I guess the question is, are you willing to reconsider your strategy?
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If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Sure sounded like that's what you were insinuating.
I am going to stick by my guns (or bombs, I guess). If I learned anything from Experimental mafia yesterday, it's to not doubt myself, no matter how doubtful I am.
I am about to go to practice, and I am not sure exactly what time day ends, so I don't know if I will be back before then. The decision is now in the hands on the town. Stay focused, don't let scum cloud your vision. Do you guys want to go for the Hail Mary pass? Or trust Radfield and the ability of the town to get 4 lynches in a row.
I apologize beforehand if my plan does not work out. I believe we will blow up some mafia if you follow me though. Best of luck town.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On December 08 2010 04:39 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 04:28 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 04:17 Radfield wrote:
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing?? Was this a soft claim that you and Eiii are scum and that we should lynch you today and tomorrow? Interesting... Also, now that I'm outed there is no chance for me to get hit by the mafia tonight, so my role is null unless we use it. Are you joking? I assume you're referring to this sentence: + Show Spoiler +If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). Obviously lynching me today is just as much an auto-loss as lynching you(the MH). I'm trying to show that this is a bad idea in principle, and that this is not the optimum strategy right now. Using your role is not a priority by any stretch. Also, there is a very good chance you will get hit by mafia tonight, since at least one of your bombs is on a townie.
You might have sealed your own fate with this one. Trying to reveal the second bomb location can't be a protown move. Mafia can confirm if both bombs are on a town, which leads to an autowin situation for them.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2010 05:01 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 04:39 Radfield wrote:On December 08 2010 04:28 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 04:17 Radfield wrote:
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing?? Was this a soft claim that you and Eiii are scum and that we should lynch you today and tomorrow? Interesting... Also, now that I'm outed there is no chance for me to get hit by the mafia tonight, so my role is null unless we use it. Are you joking? I assume you're referring to this sentence: + Show Spoiler +If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). Obviously lynching me today is just as much an auto-loss as lynching you(the MH). I'm trying to show that this is a bad idea in principle, and that this is not the optimum strategy right now. Using your role is not a priority by any stretch. Also, there is a very good chance you will get hit by mafia tonight, since at least one of your bombs is on a townie. You might have sealed your own fate with this one. Trying to reveal the second bomb location can't be a protown move. Mafia can confirm if both bombs are on a town, which leads to an autowin situation for them.
What are you talking about?
YOU revealed the second bomb location to me(via PM). If I am mafia I have no need to say it in the thread.... I'd just PM it to the other mafia members. Do you deny this?? All I'm doing is letting everyone know what we're actually talking about. Besides, if I'm mafia then I already know if Eiii is mafia or not. You're not making any sense here.
Why do you even care if mafia can confirm both bombs are on a townie?? YOUR plan is to blow the Hatter up tonight.
You're simply trying to paint me in a bad light here. If you have some evidence against me or want to analyze my posting feel free. But don't come at me with nonsense.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On December 08 2010 05:01 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 04:39 Radfield wrote:On December 08 2010 04:28 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 04:17 Radfield wrote:
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing?? Was this a soft claim that you and Eiii are scum and that we should lynch you today and tomorrow? Interesting... Also, now that I'm outed there is no chance for me to get hit by the mafia tonight, so my role is null unless we use it. Are you joking? I assume you're referring to this sentence: + Show Spoiler +If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). Obviously lynching me today is just as much an auto-loss as lynching you(the MH). I'm trying to show that this is a bad idea in principle, and that this is not the optimum strategy right now. Using your role is not a priority by any stretch. Also, there is a very good chance you will get hit by mafia tonight, since at least one of your bombs is on a townie. You might have sealed your own fate with this one. Trying to reveal the second bomb location can't be a protown move. Mafia can confirm if both bombs are on a town, which leads to an autowin situation for them.
Also, if we're talking about lynching the Hatter, then revealing the second bomb location is absolutely pro-town, in fact it's a MUST. Either we discuss this as a town, or we simply leave it up to Jcarl. I'm vastly in favor of talking it out. Yes that means mafia get their input too, but that is a GOOD thing.
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Day ends in just over 4 hours. Get your votes in.
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Alright, we are in a win/lose situation, and our win conditions are looking pretty grim. So i'm all for going out with a big boom (Lynching the hatter) and then winning or loosing.
Because as people have brought up we will otherwise be looking at essentially 4 correct lynches in a row which will be really difficult where as the hatter will put us in a situation where if we are succesfull it is much more winnable.
Oh and as for revealing who the second bomb is on it is both for and aganist the town. I hope i don't have to tell people this, but in anyway if we reveal who the second bomb is on all town members will be able to decide for themselves if they think lynching the hatter is the right choice and not just having to put their faith in the hatter. Plus there will most likely be a reaction from mafia if both bombs are on scum which can be used to track down the rest. On the other hand revealing it can also lead to mafia changing the vote away from the hatter at the last minute loosing us the game.
But that said i will go with the hatter plan for now, i think it gives us better odds at succeeding so that's where my vote will be.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On December 08 2010 05:10 Radfield wrote:
YOU revealed the second bomb location to me(via PM). If I am mafia I have no need to say it in the thread.... I'd just PM it to the other mafia members. Do you deny this?? All I'm doing is letting everyone know what we're actually talking about. Besides, if I'm mafia then I already know if Eiii is mafia or not. You're not making any sense here.
That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying, you revealing the second bomb means your alternate lynch proposal becomes weaker. Now that the mafia know both bombs, its too risky to let the MH live.
On December 08 2010 05:10 Radfield wrote:
Why do you even care if mafia can confirm both bombs are on a townie?? YOUR plan is to blow the Hatter up tonight.
Why do I care if mafia can confirm both bombs? Because if they can, it could lead to an auto-lose situation. Seems like a pretty important reason. Thus, I stated it as flaw in the alternate plan, making the plan to blow up the Hatter stronger.
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Now that it's clear who the hatter is, I can't realistically see lynching anybody else, as he is our main weapon against the mafia at this point, and IMO would become a liability later as it becomes more likely for his bombs to hit townies.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
OK:
On December 08 2010 08:09 Eiii wrote:
##Vote jcarlsoniv
This loses us the game though.
Eiii is obviously mafia. The only possible reason he would go along with this, is because he knows i am town, and that mafia wins the game. It makes no sense for him to be town, because in that case he is voting for a loss. There is no way a townie would vote for this.
By lynching Eiii we lose one of Jcarl's bombs, that means that he can switch his other bomb tonight(if he wants) and no one will know where his bomb is. Mafia can gamble and hit him, or they avoid him and we have a confirmed Hatter still. In either case, the mafia can no longer use Jcarl against us.
PLEASE VOTE Eiii
He is obvious scum at this point
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
There is also no way that we are both scum, or he would be arguing against this, not passively letting it happen.
Someone please show me how Eiii is not scum at this point!?
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alright this isn't really going in a positive direction here and it's probably too late to do anything about it.
Kitaman PM'd me earlier and basically asked if I'd be able to vote later today. I said yeah, I would, and he replied that the town was going to go along with the hatter plan. I checked the voting thread, and there were lots of votes for hatter there, so I threw mine in as well. At the time I didn't know for sure where the bombs were placed. I'm not in the town circle, and I wasn't about to second guess their decision. I feel like we're in an unwinnable situation, and that this is the wrong move to make but I'm not about to potentially let mafia win the game any earlier than they have to by splitting the town's vote.
obviously I'm going to take back my vote now that I *know* that I'm a bomb target.
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Oh jeez, this is not the time to be having this happen.
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On December 08 2010 08:46 Eiii wrote:
alright this isn't really going in a positive direction here and it's probably too late to do anything about it.
Kitaman PM'd me earlier and basically asked if I'd be able to vote later today. I said yeah, I would, and he replied that the town was going to go along with the hatter plan. I checked the voting thread, and there were lots of votes for hatter there, so I threw mine in as well. At the time I didn't know for sure where the bombs were placed. I'm not in the town circle, and I wasn't about to second guess their decision. I feel like we're in an unwinnable situation, and that this is the wrong move to make but I'm not about to potentially let mafia win the game any earlier than they have to by splitting the town's vote.
obviously I'm going to take back my vote now that I *know* that I'm a bomb target.
Well I believe that is a lie. You placed your vote at 8:48.
Kitaman PMd me this from you:
From: Eiii
Subject: Re: Salem
Date: 12/8/10 04:58
:/ alright
-----------------------------------------
Original Message From kitaman27:
mmk thanks. It looks like we are going to vote for the MH jcarl.
Note the time: 4:58. You clearly knew that the bomb was placed on you, hence the ":/" and yet you're not going to argue it.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Also your voting post doesn't make sense:
##Vote jcarlsoniv
This loses us the game though.
Why does it lose us the game if you don't know that the bomb is on yourself?
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EPT
