TL Mafia XVIII - Page 29

On February 15 2010 01:13 BloodyC0bbler wrote:


Someone has seen the light

On February 14 2010 20:38 Chezinu wrote:

This game the godfather will be a no name because the other mafia won't care about dt checks. The big names will die this game.. its sad...

On February 14 2010 21:13 Ver wrote:
It seems pretty apparent that the mafia are lazy and just waiting on us to waste lynches on innocents. They don't really have any reason to contribute and it's pretty clear that the people posting real contributions are innocent (I'm too tired to make a list atm sorry) while the mafia just post a bit of garbage and/or sit around.

Lastly, I want to make it clear that the people who were questioning the statements about clue analysis being useful are very probably innocent (again too tired to make a list). In such a situation the mafia is not going to want to disagree with someone like me and attract attention to themselves, while an innocent is much more likely to not care and just argue what they feel is right.

So my decision to run for mayor is basically, do I want to even possibly subject myself to that again (as it will affect my performance), or do I take the risk of letting another mafia get into power?

On February 14 2010 21:13 Ver wrote:

It seems pretty apparent that the mafia are lazy and just waiting on us to waste lynches on innocents. They don't really have any reason to contribute and it's pretty clear that the people posting real contributions are innocent (I'm too tired to make a list atm sorry) while the mafia just post a bit of garbage and/or sit around.

On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote:

Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid.

Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.

On February 15 2010 02:42 L wrote:
When going to sleep, my recent rereading of the clues made me note that there are probably clues linked to 6+ mafia in the first post, with 2-3 personae being 'hittable' tonight in my current reading. This got me thinking; if we figured out all 6 credible hits, mafia are kinda forced to push their own hits towards town consensus targets.

Upon realizing this, I came to the conclusion that Ver is 100% wrong; Discussing clues doesn't put the town into disarray: it lets town control both their own lynch AND night hits. The net result of persuasive clue targets that the mafia believe are that we BOTH save ourselves AND hunt mafia.
.

On February 14 2010 20:35 Shikyo wrote:

Oh missed this >_> Changed every missing part to how they should have been and didn't remove anything, only added, so maybe it's fine!


Anyway I'm now here and reading -.-

On February 15 2010 03:26 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Bill Murrays defense hasn't impressed me one bit. I'm not 100% convinced he's mafia, but if he is not this is just terrible play.

Bill Murray, at the very least give reasons as to why you think those people are mafia. Why do you refuse to justify your statements? Do you actually think it's helpful to come in and say "OH BTW THESE DUDES ARE MAFIA AND L IS DA GODFATHER AND BC IS THE OTHER FAMILIES GODFATHER, L8R"

On February 15 2010 03:04 meeple wrote:


That kinda goes on the assumption that the clues are right. I don't think that the mafia would be "forced" to push their own hits like that, since they'll probably make their own decisions, but I do agree that the more good suspects that we have as a town the more likely they'll get hit by the respective mafia, if we make a good enough case for them.

On February 15 2010 04:04 dozko wrote:
Right, finally got the time to read through all of the election campaigns. I will be posting all of the relative posts since I compiled them in a text file to look at anyway, hopefully I didnt miss anything.

+ Show Spoiler [ All candidatures] +

Okay, so here are my thoughts on the candidates:

The most obvious thing first: MasterDana's nonexistent campaign and 2 liner post doesnt show any brain activity/ commitment to the role. I think either of these are pretty self-explanatory as to why we shouldnt elect him.

meeple's main arguments are that he played a game where he was elected and the game turned out well for the town. Significant? I think not.

BillMurray: "guaranteed liberty"??? Presents some vague clarifications of the game structure and concludes that not voting for him will be a mistake. Well if it was surely you would want to lay out a more coherent campaign convincing us of your special traits or plan. So basically not selling yourself and then blaming people for not voting for you is your fault not theirs. Also there was an incident with him last game so IMO enough responsibility for him.

Chezinu: far too weird whats the point of writing gibberish all the time? I find myself subconsciously skipping over his posts and have to really concentrate to read them just for the sake of completeness.

l10f: Dont like his campaign motivation plus his first voting decisions are very erratic and irrational.

The others I think are all decent candidatures but I find myself disagreeing with some of the stuff.

First of all I dont think DrH is a good pick, purely because the "i will lynch whoever the town wants to lycnh" sounds spinelessness to me. Also I dont like how he doesnt present a concrete target himself but agrees with another candidate (BC) on who to lynch, when he should be competing instead. Why should I vote for him rather than that BC in this case?

Secondly the thing I dont like so much about citi.zen is that he has established quite a lot of credibility with people playing in Incognito's last game. Sure he did good but he was helped out by some rather unforeseen events and his blues quite a lot. So given this if he turns out to be scum loads of townies will go along with him purely because he played a good townie last game. I.e. there is a risk of the majority accepting his viewpoints not because they have thought it through but because he played well last game and hes a mayor in this game so he must be trustworthy.

I dont want to vote for either L or Ace, not because I see anything suspicious about them right now, but purely because not having either of them immune to rolechecks is a good thing. Basically DTs should verify the high profile vets first, since a) The mob is likely to put forward a proven good player and not some lowlife scrub who gains no credibility by himself and b) establishing such a player as a green gives a good foundation on which to build the "circle of trust", and if they are red then their big paper trail will again be useful. This reasoning I think can be applied to BC and Ver as well, since Ver accused BC who basically said whatever. So I think our DTs going for rolechecks on these high rollers first will benefit us in the long run and so we should keep them out of immunity.

So based on all of this my conclusion is that I find myself unable to put my finger on someone who I strongly trust. However I think that in all mafia games, indecision along with inactivity are the worst things that can happen. Therefore I will vote for citi.zen purely because I think that the above concerns I had can be rectified if one always keeps his "perceived trustworthiness" in mind when doing analysis.

On February 14 2010 21:44 Nikoner wrote:
Whoa, 28 pages o.O

If there's anything I've learned from the previous mafia game I was in, it's that clues are always right. Even if you interpret them incorrectly, they still are pointing to someone, and it's likely that your wrong interpretation is right. That's why this whole Ace vs L thing seems so bogus. I have to admit that I agree with L's argument towards using clues from the get-go, since with 20 mafia in the game, clues aren't likely to reappear in the foreseeable future and they won't be any stronger on Day 3 than they are on Day 1, there would just be more of them to talk about, and if we've skipped any analysis, it would be way easier for clues to get bogged down by a third party. This would be disastrous as it would allow a mafia family to avoid being linked to clues, essentially giving them the victory nearly for free.

You have to understand that the dynamics brought in by having two opposed mafia families make analysing clues so much more important, as those families will be looking to kill eachother, hence becoming unwilling accomplices in the town's plight. Moreover, the activity it would presumably spur would be invaluable, if not today, then tomorrow. It's also worthy to note that lynching anyone in the first couple of days is not in the town's best interest, we need to be able to discern between the different mafia camps, lest we tip the scale too far in one direction. Remeber - mafia families have 3 KP right now, but their KP will only go down if they lose 4 people. Hence, lynching a mafia hastily could potentially have a disastrous effect on the game. It's probably best to let them kill off each other for now, while gently making suggestions based on logic and science as to who they should... dispose of. Even if we do not lynch a mafia, it still works heavily against the town's favour, since it diminishes our strength as a whole.

Another thing to note is that there will be mafia running for office. A more intricate result from that is that they're unlikely to substitute bodyguards with their members if their candidate wins. Regardless of the outcome of the vote, I'd expect attempts on elected positions as soon as night one, since no one really has any substantial information this far.