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On January 24 2010 15:31 Ser Aspi wrote:
We absolutely cannot go with clues. A much safer thing would be to see who we are accusing on clues and declare them innocent. That's how little clues mean right now.
Mafia often seem to try to hide in da shadows while the town goes crazy with clues and accuses the people who are in the open the most like t_co. unfortunately they almost always kill innocents while doing so. We should be targeting the people on the fringes above all else.
I think that instead of going crazy on clues we should force the people who are not really contributing to step up or die. Zona had the right idea before but he drowned out by the clue posts. I'll start.
Hyperbola
Cynanmachae
JohannesH
Ghote
i don't trust any of you. All of you are sitting aside quietly not helping at all. Better start contributing or your red blood will fly. Everyone help contribute so we can get good information.
i have contributed quite a bit to discussion around here, especially regarding mr flamewheel,
i see no reason why you should call me inactive
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Bill said this as his first post of being weird:
On January 22 2010 03:05 Bill Murray wrote:
to be honest, after speaking with someone in private, i realize now that i hope t_co isn't red (for my own sake). If t_co is red, i hope a medic out there will protect me
On January 23 2010 12:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Another PM from Bill Murray, choose to believe it or not.
"honestly, i trust you 3rd of the players (behind citi.zen and someone else), and i trust you more than meeple. i trust him 4th or 5th. that being said, there is no way for me to rolecheck you. if you or meeple are red, i expect you both to be, and the game is already essentially lost. if you're both red, you will probably not kill me, as i trust you all more than the opposition. "
So there was someone else he was talking to in pm besides me and citi.zen it seems. Although I have no idea who. I would guess Zona if I had to since BM asked me what I thought of Zona, but that's not for sure.
Ok where I am going with this is, maybe Bill started acting weird because he had already PM'd people and told them he was a detective. If he told DoctorH, he may have told #1 and #2 on his trust list. We shouldn't ignore the possibility that the mafia figured him out from his odd behavior. We should also consider the possibility that he started acting odd because he thought he had PM'd a mafia his role.
Does anyone know who #2 is?
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On January 23 2010 12:30 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
here's a segment from a pm conversation I had with jugan that leads me to believe bill murray might have confirmed himself as a dt to jugan as well.
Original Message:
Because people are trying to get me to trust them, and I want to make sure I'm not being played. I'm sure I can convince you that I'm not mafia if you have any doubts.
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Original Message:
Why do you ask?
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Original Message:
Did Bill Murray reveal himself to you as a detective?"
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3 people he told he was dt were jugan, doc h, and citizen
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According to an after-death post, he told DrH and Citi.zen. Jugan apparently found out on his own, and was just questioning DrH about it.
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On January 25 2010 02:49 StimiLant wrote:
keit has cookie monster pic in profile which ties to the apple shoved down a throat like cookie monster shoves cookies down his
Also the barbaric appearance
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Well it seems we have a lot of ways to go... Thoughts?
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On January 25 2010 02:47 Mystlord wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 20:39 Ng5 wrote:Mystlord wrote:
As for the double lynch, I still don't think we should use it just yet. I don't see the need to use it until we get at least 1 mafia. This still sounds like something of a no sex on the first date excuse for me. That's not what I'm saying at all. I'm working on a Utilitarian basis here. Think about it. We need to bring Mafia down to 4 players to reduce them to 2 KP. They're at 7 right now. The double lynch is designed to effectively eliminate 2 Mafia members when the Townies are almost certain of two identities of two Mafia members. It's not supposed to be used as a random guessing tool. We should at least wait for more clues and a Mafia lynch that could swing us in one direction or another before using the double lynch.
Okay, I will mention it again, but just for the sake of running my mouth.  Arguing against double lynch with KP arguments is obsolete. When you get to reducing kill power it doesn't matter how you got there. 2+2+1+1=2+1+2+1=2+1+1+2=1+2+2+1=1+2+1+2=1+1+2+2=6. If you don't understand what I mean from this much it doesn't really matter how long I'm gonna be yapping my mouth about it. It's one of those mathematical nonsenses that always crack me up even after these years. Like saying the lottery has 50% chance - you either win or you don't.
Also you do act like no sex on first date. You've got a nice set of solid leads. It's not like they are going to get much more solid than that. If that was so this game would be won by the town nine out of ten times - which as I interpreted it so far is not the case.
It's a game. If it was easy to win noone would want to participate because it would be predictable and boring. You need to take risks and right now a double lynch seems pretty much a solid risk. We have a couple clues so far, but most likely at least one overlaps each other in sense of the murderer's person.
If you want new clues about other members you have a better chance if you try to eliminate more of them asap. If you want more clues on the same ones, you might still end up clues about others in which case you are where you'd be after a double lynch but with one less try and more suspicions. I don't know, but isn't it the goal of the town to keep the suspects' number down by eliminating them?
This is also why doing a random lynch after the election is verified. Saying you lynched someone because they were suspicious according to a clue is great. But saying you did it just because it's calmer without them sounds pretty much random for me. I mean anyone could annoy you for some reason. I at least call it what it is - random.
Yes you can be wrong. But you can be wrong tomorrow, or the day after, or the day after.
And also there's only a handful of active people. Yup maybe some don't step up to the front, but most of them won't even if the active ones get eliminated by the mafia. You say to wait, I say you don't have that much time. Personally I would even dare to go for a dual double lynch on days three and four. Or at most three and five.
PS: And yes I'm not going to vote on lynching until I see my vote is obsolete. And right now it is for several reasons.
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Nothing new, but just to summarize for people not following as closely,
Some of the top suspects:
kane]deth[: A kane is a musical instrument that looks similar to a cross between a bucket and a top hat, and is played with a mallet. Killer #2 was wearing a rusty bucket and killed his victim with a sledgehammer. Also kane hasn't been posting too much.
tredmasta/flamewheel: tredmasta is a reference to a treadmill. flamewheel has a picture of an olympic runner. The killer #1 is discribed as having an relentless plotting pace. Also the victim is described as running at nearly Olympian speed. The plotting pace could refer to the endless cycle of a treadmill or the stamina of an Olympian.
keit: Cookie monster profile pic could be the barbaric reference in Day 1, as well, the killer shoves an apple down the throat of his victim, similar to how Cookie monster does with cookies. Again made somewhat more suspicious by keit's lack of posting here.
DoctorHeveltica: Killer #2 in Day one was described as very cleanly, making sure to clean up after he had finished, somewhat reminiscent of a Doctor. Although a bigger hint would be the thin blade that could be a reference to a scalpel. Also DrH was one of the 3 people that knew that Bill Murray was a detective. Having said that, Bill wasn't exactly discrete about his actions and this should be considered suspicious but not entirely incriminating.
Less clue related suspicions:
ghote: Perhaps too bandwagony (if that's a word). Even admitted himself that his vote to lynch kane was just following the popular choice. He has made a couple of arguably suspicious posts of this nature.
A couple others but I hesitate to put them here since they don't seem to have a solid basis yet.
If I have forgotten anything, or said anything incorrectly feel free to point it out.
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
Read everything.
Will defend myself in a few hours, though I feel like I've said what I need to say. No new evidence has been brought up against me.
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My thoughts...
The kane]deth[ connection is actually the weakest to me... for right now at least. Its true that the shape of the instrument is strangely similar... but its not really a bucket, nor should be rusty, and there was mention of "a wild animal being set loose in his garage". Something I don't think is a coincedence.
My vote would go for either tredmasta or flamewheel91 since both have a fairly strong relation. Personally the description rings too much like trying to outrun a treadmill to me that I would say tredmasta.
keit and DrH are both close to the top of my list for different reasons, but they're shakier than the tredmasta link. The cookiemonster theory can't explain the odd appearance of an apple, and DrH has good points when he says that the Mafia could've figured out Bill's blue role without anyone needing to tip them off.
As for ghote, I think for now at least, there's nothing too solid linking him, but somewhere on the threat level beneath keit and DrH.
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On January 25 2010 02:32 DoctorHelvetica wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2010 02:28 tredmasta wrote:
Hey guys, sorry I haven't posted in a while. I was not at home all of yesterday.
I saw that I had been suspected, but I think overall, the clues point more to flamewheel91. My name is based off of a treadmill, but nothing else in my profile seems to really fit the clues. I also feel it fits flamewheel91 a lot more than you. I'm a bit inbetween voting for kane/flamewheel/keit atm.
There actually is nothing definitive fitting flamewheel right now. The victim ran at near-olympian speed. First, it wasn't the killer who did it. Second, the picture in flamewheel's profile is an olympian - Not a near olympian.
I doubt Bill trusted me at all, we just talked a little bit about the miller role. If you have any confusion about it, you should read earlier posts.
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jugan just referencing Olympian speed, is a clue, the near really just makes it flow better into the story, and make the clue a little less obvious. just because the words, and the image are not exactly identical, does not make it not a clue
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Well since the abstain votes currently outnumber the people voting, I'm gonna go with my gut and vote for tredmasta unless someone produces a better argument in the next little while.
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What distance did the guy on the photo ran?
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He's called the Beijing Man I think...
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I don't think they are that similar. Our guy's number is 441, though might look after that.
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EPT
