ByuN vs Dear - Rebirth

Last week's series confirmed the best possible interpretation of ByuN: he is a top-tier player. He proved more than skilled enough to tussle with a resurgent Ryung, exchanging blows in drawn-out sieges as well as early skirmishes. He combined impeccable mechanics with solid strategy. His preparation was good if not impressive. Endurance did not seem to be an issue. Overall he looked like the caliber of player whose name belongs in the conversation alongside Maru and TY. Yet ByuN couldn't help making the type of flubs that come with inexperience on the main stage. Several times he entrenched parts of his army in strong positions without a proper reinforcement line, only to get overwhelmed by Ryung's entire force. At other points he pushed out too far as if he believed he could win the impeding fight through sheer skill. Against Ryung's TvT such moves looked...amateurish. Those failures were jarring anomalies not congruent with ByuN's typical clean execution.

His inability to make those moves work showed he still has room to mature. Such tactics are his bread and butter online, where he routinely overcomes unfavorable situations with superior micro and positioning. His Leifang Cup and Olimoleague appearances are characterized by precise strikes in the earlygame, devastating counterattacks with drops, and nonstop midgame pressure. Naturally, ByuN's style has evolved towards efficiency instead of targeted countermeasures. If you're going to play that many games online, consistent execution will get you the guaranteed money more than wackadoodle builds. GSL is a different beast though. The same risks that work against inferior competition fall flat against the best. Consistency in itself is not enough to make a champion. Without the ability to surprise your opponent, eventually you will get downloaded.

Tonight may prove to be the turning point of ByuN's career. In a scene where “top-tier” is nebulous and the overall strata remains in flux, it takes more than one good showing to become a staple. ByuN has proven he can hang with the best, but who says he has staying power? Plenty of players have one good season in them, and many more have untapped “potential” that never comes to fruition. In addition to the stigma of being an offline warrior, ByuN's chances at BlizzCon hinge on winning this series. Sitting 100 points behind Patience for eighth place, it would be heartbreaking if he misses out on his only chance to go to California. It's a lot of stress for a guy returning to the GSL after 3 years. Then again, guys without teams aren't supposed to be semifinalists either.

Unfortunately for fans of exciting Terran play, TY faltered when it mattered most. Few players looked as impressive throughout the year, and many pegged as the favorite to win GSL. He was supposed to defeat his opponent, a has-been who had quietly asserted himself as a solid presence in Code S, with pizzazz. But things didn't go according to plan. TY didn't look as dominant as past games suggested he would, and said has-been proved to have a few tricks for the mercurial Terran. On the last map, TY's aggressiveness ended up biting him in the ass. Famed for his ability to rip apart opponents with multitasking, the KT Terran couldn't help trying a backstab when he couldn't afford to split up his forces. That call cost him the series and ruined the spirits of quite a few viewers.

That victory puts Dear in an awkward place. Looking over the remaining competition, how many of us can sincerely root for him? Everywhere else a better story lurks. It would be incredible if sOs goes into BlizzCon as the GSL champion, riding the incredible momentum of his win towards another end-of-the-year title. A ByuN victory would propel the one-time KeSPA fugitive into the spotlight; with no traditional support system for a pro, he would be heralded as the boy who defied the odds. That leaves Dear, a great player who happened to make the GSL semifinals 3 seasons in a row. As great an accomplishment as that is, it doesn't have the same magic to it.

I doubt Dear is perturbed over whether he's a bore. Like the past version of soO, Dear is as constant as the northern star. Classic still struggles to return to his championship form; herO was once again denied a shot at glory by sOs; Zest has (temporarily, we hope) lost the edge that made him into the unstoppable juggernaut of Season 1. People are still perplexed over how Patience became a good player. But while the tides changed and the seasons passed, Dear endured. It may be when people reminisce on this GSL, they chuckle at the collective surprise when Dear finally lifted the trophy. How did we doubt a two-time WCS champion? How didn't we see this from the start?

Prediction

This series will test playstyles more than intelligence or mechanics. For Dear to triumph, he must prevent ByuN from executing his traditional TvP plan: a quick attempt to pressure into map control and nonstop midgame fighting. This is the blueprint that has earned ByuN a 10 series winstreak (22-0 in games) in the matchup. Ideally, Dear will never let ByuN walk out on the map without the threat of a backstab. That doesn't translate into shenanigans though. Most of the non-standard builds Dear whipped out against TY were meant to counter surprise with surprise, and it didn't seem he understood how to properly transition out of them. Don't count on another 2 base adept all-in on Dusk Towers; the Samsung Galaxy Protoss won't take those types of risks for the hell of it. As he demonstrated in the Ro16, ByuN can be cautious when facing a trickster. Furthermore, those early attacks also serve to effectively deflect all-ins; ByuN rarely double expands even on the largest maps, and will elect for 1 rax → factory → 3 rax or some 1/1/1 variation instead.

For ByuN, it's a mattter of identifying what is coming ahead of time. Dear loves to open Stargate into double Oracle on maps with air space between the main and third; if previous GSL games are any indicator, it's his go-to on Frozen Temple. This way he punishes those who skip on anti-air and try to get away with a fast third. By the time his opponent can recover and retaliate, he has a huge adept/stalker army with double upgrades. If he can nip this in the bud and dissuade Dear from going back to it in the later part of the series, ByuN will gain a huge advantage. He cannot afford to let Dear get to the lategame, not with the latter's ability to pick perfect unit compositions in that period of the game.

My brain says Dear will prevail with a better plan over the entire series. But my heart remembers that puppy from his ZeNEX days, and how can I resist cuteness?

Sentimental choice: ByuN 4-3 Dear
Intellectual choice: ByuN 2-4 Dear