The Warm-up
So far, WCS 2016 has been very much a stop-start competition. Rather than the predictable rhythm of the WCS Premier seasons that we’re used to, switching to the weekender format has shorn away the few certainties that we held going into the year. We’re used to the GSL tournament format, where players build towards a climactic triumph months in the making, and so seeing players rise and fall from week to week, month to month has taken some adjustment. One alleged criticism of the 2015 format is that it placed too much emphasis on the all-important WCS Seasons; when the 2016 system was announced, one claim was that the increased number of foreign events would give more chances for pros outside the big Season Championships. It’s time to test that claim.
After all, the timing of Dreamhack Austin is more than a little strange. On the outside, everything looks great—a first American Dreamhack event, and a $50,000 event at that, is nothing to be sniffed at. However, the fact that it comes a mere week before Dreamhack Tours—otherwise known as the WCS Spring Championships—offers a dilemma for any competitors attending both events. Go for glory now, and give your opponents fresh data on your very best strats? Or treat this as a warm-up, keeping everything hidden to be deployed in the hunt for that elusive WCS Global Playoffs seed?
Complicating the matter is that the competition here isn’t nearly as tough as it will be in Tours next week. The three Americanised Koreans stand out, of course—Polt, Hydra, and viOLet all here trawling for more money to throw towards their retirement funds—but for once, the European contingent has mostly opted to stay at home. Past WCS event champions and finalists Harstem, PtitDrogo and Snute are here, while a trio of impressive EU zergs in Bly, FireCake and Lambo have also made it across the pond. Asia has sent iaguz and iAsonu, and Has also returns to terrify the hell out of whoever he’s matched against.
They’re all impressive contenders, and indeed it’s hard to ever bet against Polt and Hydra in particular, but it’s still the case that this is the most open event in quite some time. It’s been years since we’ve had a North American lift a trophy at a major offline event, and in Austin, the locals will be getting restless. With the waves of NA talent qualified for the main event, or littering the open brackets, our resident patriotic NA Writer Soularion in particular believes they have a shot...
An American Rebellion
by Soularion
For the second time in a row, Neeb—the growing NA powerhouse—has come out on top over the Koreans in the WCS Regionals. This time, though, someone from America has joined him.
puCK's astonishing comeback against Polt, starting out 0-2 and involving a draw on the fifth map, is just another step in his progression after eliminating Hydra twice (including a 3-0) earlier in the day, and coming off a massive success in reaching the top 4 at WCS Shanghai a couple weeks prior. This growing trend is enough to call for the re-examination of a scene that, honestly, hasn't been worthy of praise since the start of Heart of the Swarm. Neeb, puCK, and even veterans such as Scarlett and HuK (plus the growing cast of newcomers) have all played with a reinvigorated vigor that looks odd, especially when placed next to NA's most hopeless year yet in 2015. Will it hold, even until WCS Spring brings us a chance for them to make a significant mark? Who knows. But for the first time since Scarlett started to decline, that question is being asked—and that's a good thing. Scarlett became one of the most loved players in the foreign scene when she emerged from a dying NA landscape (whose previous bastion, HuK, had fallen surprisingly hard with HotS) and managed to make a ridiculously strong run at WCS 2013 Season 2 - through both WCS NA and the Season Finals. She took the world champion to five games at Red Bull NY; she made a finals over Life at NorthCon; she had an awe-inspiring loser's run at MLG Anaheim (2-1 Life, 2-1 DRG, 2-1 RagnaroK, 1-2 Trap). And then she… stopped.
It's worth noting that, even during Scarlett's prime, the North American scene was hardly in a good spot. Not counting the Queen of Blades, only one NA player made each of the Round of 16s in 2013—and none made the Quarterfinals. Hell, none of them even came all that close! 2014 was a slightly better year for the scene, but even then Neeb (a terran, back then) and HuK were struggling to find relevance even with fairly good brackets, and puCK couldn't quite find the consistency to rise above the 'fringe upset' level even though his upsets managed to find some weight. Season 3 summarized the NA scene quite nicely, as the up and comers failed swiftly and easily in the group stages, while only HuK and Scarlett made the Ro8.. and both got 3-0'd. Although the 2015 WCS gave NA new life by allowing more players in, it didn't accomplish much: the disappointment ran deep. Scarlett more-or-less retired. The Koreans (even viOLet, in the worst form of his career) trampled over everyone else. Kane, who looked good for the duration of a Ro16, fell off fast enough for nobody to be sad. In that first season of WCS in 2015, only two North American foreigners won a match. HuK, Suppy and MajOr (who have all had moments of legitimate contention in past seasons) all failed 0-2. puCK barely did better. The next season? Not a single player made the Ro16, and Xenocider plus MaSa only barely scraped together wins against competition that should've been a lot easier. Season Three? Hitman provided a few giggles as he actually got out of groups, but declined the opportunity to show up to the Ro16 while the rest of NA faltered.
So, why have things changed now?
The easiest person to point to as proof of a rise in NA is none other than Neeb himself, the American protoss who emerged in 2016 as an intelligent, well-paced, patient protoss who relied just about as much on macro ability as he did on clever harass and tricks such as Disruptor drops. His matches against Polt and Hydra over the year-so-far have not only been a joy to watch, but also wildly successful: evidenced by him coming out on top in the WCS NA Regionals twice in a row. He's held a 70%+ winrate against all opponents in 2016, including a recent 19-series win streak over various online cups, NA Regionals and Dreamhack Austin's qualifiers. While he has dropped the occasional match, it's very rare to see him not bounce back and be able to at least make things competitive, perhaps best seen in his two offline outings so far. While neither his Leipzig nor his WCS Winter results were all that great, it's worth noting that the players he lost to (PtitDrogo and Hydra respectively) were not only some of the best at the time but also immensely tight, back-and-forth matches that prove that Neeb is very much a threat for anyone both offline and online, instead of just being a ladder hero picking on his lesser countrymen. His style is balanced, and as good on paper as it is in play. Neeb is quite clearly top two (or maybe top three, depending on Harstem's volatile form) foreign protosses alongside the equally wonderful ShoWTimE, which is an odd and unusual thing to say about an American player who isn't one of the established WoL stalwarts of HuK, IdrA or Scarlett. With a good showing at Austin and especially in the weeks after in WCS Spring, Neeb can transcend the 'potential' boundry and move into claiming his piece of the NA echelon as the leader of the rebellion-- but the rebellion hardly ends with its talking piece.
Neeb's dominance of WCS Spring certainly took the world by storm, but puCK's display was every bit as insane. He took down Hydra, first in a 3-2 and later in a 3-0, and then eliminated Polt in a tense, close set to clinch not only his seed but his next step of momentum after a surprising GPL run saw him beating Scarlett, MajOr and Snute. His inconsistency is hardly fiction, however: at LotV's start he had a great turn of momentum, and then he got crushed by MarineLorD and struggled in NA, and now he's back to being one of the very best from North America. Unlike Neeb, puCK doesn't play with as much precision and he does have a history which works against him, but if nothing else it's worth taking a step back and realizing that holy crap, it's 2016, and two Americans just stopped Hydra and Polt from winning Regionals. In one day, puCK took as many sets off of Hydra than all of NA took off the zerg in all of Heart of the Swarm. Hydra held a 41-2 record against players from America and Canada before Legacy, just like Polt was 106-12. In Legacy of the Void, that combined record shrunk from 147-14 (most losses coming against Scarlett) to a much more competitive 47-10. Are Polt and Hydra still better than the majority of NA? Of course they are, they're Hydra and Polt! But with those facts alone, we can start to disregard all of the 'hey, it's just online' type of talk: Polt and Hydra were dominating foreigners both off and online last year, and now they aren't having it quite as easy. That's the rebellion we're seeing in the North American scene, and that's the progress which we can already see in the first few months in Legacy.
Now, for all the talk of new blood and renewed vigor, I think it's important that we don't lose track of the best (or at least tied for the best) North American player of all time—HuK. His peak was so long ago that we've let those stunning MLG runs and breathtaking GSL performances fade away, especially thanks to a certain Swedish protoss coming along and more or less doing everything HuK did except 'bigger'. But, HuK is what got us here. HuK was around from the very birth of Starcraft II, and almost six years later he's still around kicking MarineLorD around in Leipzig and channeling his inner clutchness through an admittedly weak bracket to a Quarterfinals in WCS Winter. He's looked good! His tense matches against the likes of MaSa, Hydra and puCK show that the veteran of all veterans still has energy left in him, and because of his past and his unending potential as a genuine great it's not possible to disregard him anymore. It's unlikely that Legacy was the direct cause of this since signs of HuK's spark were seen towards the end of HotS against StarDust and Rain, but it's come alive in a new way that shows a lot less 'getting kicked around by scrubs' than the earlier versions of HuK. Continuation of this motivation through Austin and WCS Spring can not only turn everyone's head in HuK's direction for a less drama-induced reason, but also remind players that he's not just a caster. He was once one of the very best, and from time to time that same intangible thing within him clicks and you can see his drive for competition and his experience within the scene really produce something. His wins over MaNa and MarineLorD might be easy to find excuses for, but a part of me has to smile when watching HuK find his groove again.
While puCK and Neeb have made the biggest splashes recently, and HuK's been the patron saint of the NA scene, with all the good and bad that implies since forever, it's worth pointing out that they aren't the only players around. MaSa has finally gotten a chance to claim his #1 in Canada title and has looked quite impressive as of late, especially in his Kings of the North run and his tight encounter with Bly in TING. His WCS Winter performance was also a huge surprise, involving a well-played upset over Harstem, before being edged out by runner-up Snute: be on the lookout for this guy. He's damn good, and with his WCS Winter performance he proved that he can bring it when it really matters. JonSnow, who missed out on WCS Winter despite qualifying, has also found his own niche by qualifying for Austin in a pretty solid run over HuK, Scarlett and Bails. He's a lot less proven and has generally had middling success in the North American scene, so this opportunity to show himself is gonna be quite interesting to see. Will he shine? It's very likely that he won't, but he does seem to elevate his play quite a lot going into important qualifiers such as for WCS Winter and (of course) Dreamhack Austin. Bails is another solid up-and-comer, while players ranging from PiLiPiLi to State show occasional potential but still haven't had their moment in the spotlight. To round out this collection of all the 'underdogs', I have to mention Kelazhur: he's been one of the most talented terrans in the foreign scene for a while now, and I found myself quite impressed with his WCS runs last year especially. He (and MajOr) don't get their own sections because they tend to run with Latin America, but they're both very red-hot terrans who can at any moment find a good run. If Kelazhur manages to not draw Neeb, his match is definitely going to be worth watching if he manages to qualify for WCS Spring.
And then there's Scarlett. She's been quite elusive as of late, hasn't she? She’s back in Korea, gunning for a GSL / SSL spot, so maybe she's trying again. Or maybe she isn't. Either way, I can speak for more than a few people when I saw that, if she ever returns back to her peak form, that spark of energy seen in matches against Bomber, Dream, or sOs might just come again. That magic that one can only hold when seeing someone go up against the world and win, the magic that forces us to care about the foreign scene, the magic that makes all of those dismal moments worth it.
Maybe that magic is dead. Maybe the age of Scarlett, NaNiwa and Stephano is long over, and we won't find another one quite like them, and foreign-foreigners are going to get crushed at Blizzcon. Maybe all this is a fluke, or maybe North America just looks better because Europe and Hydra/Polt both look weaker. Maybe it's all just wishful thinking and the promise puCK, Neeb and more have shown online will fade away without a real offline run. But, if we ignored them entirely, then the moments earned when all those doubts are set aside and someone willing to put in the effort finally breaks through - be it qxc's all-kill, or IdrA's sparring with koreans in MLG, or Scarlett's WCS Season 2 Finals run - won't carry that same magic.
And wouldn't that be a bigger shame than rolling your eyes the next time an NA 'hope' dies 0-3 against Polt?
Credits:
Writers: Soularion
Complementary Writing: munch
Editors: munch
Graphics: shiroiusagi.
Photos: Red Bull
Stats: Aligulac
Writers: Soularion
Complementary Writing: munch
Editors: munch
Graphics: shiroiusagi.
Photos: Red Bull
Stats: Aligulac