Title Bout

We’ve reached the halfway mark of Round 2, and while the top two teams are locked in for the playoffs already, the rest of the pack are all still in the hunt. Four teams are tied on one win each, while Afreeca have yet to get off the mark this time round. Week 4 is likely to be the tipping point for many of our teams. SKT and Jin Air face off for the top spot, both tied on 4-0, while Afreeca have their week of reckoning—they probably need to beat both CJ and KT to reach the playoffs again. To do that though, they’ll have to make it past the current holders of the remaining two spots—Samsung and MVP are a surprise pairing. The winner of their match is guaranteed to stay in the top 4 for another week, and in such a tight round, could well carry that advantage the rest of the way.

Five Conclusions

1. Is it time to start wondering about SKT? Sure, played four, won four isn’t a record you can argue too much with, but are they actually starting to show some weakness? Their match against KT went as planned, with Classic even managing to take a game off Zest, but the CJ match was yet another troubling sign that the juggernaut might be misfiring. They’ve now played three of the four weakest teams in the competition this round—MVP, Afreeca and CJ—and were pushed to the ace match all three times. In comparison, they dropped a total of two maps to the same three teams in Round 1. Is this a sign that the rest of the field is starting to improve? Or will the SKT machine actually crumble? I feel that despite certain players underperforming (INnoVation is currently 2-4 in his past six games, after a 5-0 start, while Classic has clearly been benched until last week) SKT still have far too many great players for everyone to fail at the same time, and they only need two wins to push it to a fifth set. That it’s the second time in two weeks that they’ve reverse swept from 0-2 down shows just how hard it is to beat them.
   
   
2. That they’re still in the running for top spot is a perfect example of that theory. Their success in Round 2 has come almost solely down to clutch performances from their zergs. Dark and soO are a cumulative 9-2 in their four matches so far, winning all three ace matches (Dark 2, soO 1). In comparison, the rest of SKT trail behind at 3-5. soO might not have had anywhere near the same success in the starleagues as in his heyday, but Proleague is a whole different story, while Dark is the current SSL champion. For all the zerg dominance of SSL, I’m still unconvinced by the majority of zergs in Korea. Until other players decide to show up, I’m pretty comfortable saying that they’re the best pair of zergs in the world.
   
   
3. On the other end of those defeats were CJ and KT. CJ simply had no answers to SKT’s zerg pair—Dark’s ZvP and ZvT is probably the best in Korea, while soO’s been the best ZvZer since 2014. RagnaroK though was extremely impressive, getting the better of Dream in a late game ZvT slugfest on Frost. We’ve become used to him cheesing his way through pretty much everything (just watch his entire SSL run, for example), but this was the first display of ‘standard’ ZvT from him in quite some time. With news about Bbyong’s status just emerging last week, CJ need players like RagnaroK to step up. KT on the other hand looked down on power. Zest and TY might be the best two players in the world on GSL evidence, but here they looked below par; although how much of that was caused by the distraction of their pair of semifinals is unknown. For once, Zest was the one outthought on the night; Classic’s denial of Zest’s scouting allowed him to rush a quick third and take an overwhelming advantage, while Dark gave us a masterclass of multitasking against TY, hitting him all over the map and tearing the terran apart. KT are now 1-3 in their past four regular season matches. Last season’s woes seem to be repeating.
   
   
4. After their elation at their 3-0 win over CJ, MVP were brought down to earth with a thumping 0-3 loss to Jin Air. All three sets were over in less than ten minutes—has there ever been a quicker Proleague match? While GuMiho and Ryung have been playing well lately, let’s not kid ourselves—you’d be hard pressed to back them over Maru and sOs, while Trap easily dealt with horror. With their star terran topping the Proleague standings with his unbeaten 9 win streak, Jin Air are cruising along in Round 2. sOs slowly seems to be returning to good form, albeit not the super saiyan world-destroying peaks he’s known for, while the rest of the team is chipping in as well. Rogue’s also returning from his early-season woes, Trap’s slotting in well as their #4 in Proleague, while Cure’s GSL run shows he’s got plenty to offer. Hell—even Creator got a win last week. SKT should be slightly worried right now.
   
   
5. In a battle between two mid-tier teams that look evenly matched, Samsung came out of the blocks flying, dominating Afreeca 3-0. Dear once again showed his clean PvP engagements, proving far too good for Super (although judging by GSL, far too easy for Zest), while tankivac drops from BrAvO and Reality were key to both their successes. Let’s not forget though—this is the same result as last round too, and despite that loss, Afreeca pipped Samsung to the crucial 4th place spot. Samsung might have the lead against their rivals, but it’ll be important not to let it slip once more.

Afreeca vs CJ

Curious <King Sejong Station> herO

Just looking at the statistics, Curious is having a pretty similar year in Proleague this time round compared to 2015. He’s sitting on a 3-4 record, compared to 10-12 last year. That, however, wouldn’t take into account the impact of those wins. Last year, Curious was one of the best ZvZers in Proleague along with soO—watch his masterful pair of wins against Life, for example. Many of those wins came over powerhouse players, while his three so far this year have come against Trap, jjakji and DeParture. In addition, Curious’ recent form is pretty dreadful—one win since February (2-10 map record). We haven’t seen many ZvPs from him (one in that period)—the only time he’s been fielded against a protoss was against Stats, who swiftly rolled over him. herO himself hasn’t been in top touch either, and is 0-5 in PvZ. Frankly, calling this is a coinflip that comes down to judging which player you have more faith in fixing their play.

Patience <Lerilak Crest> ByuL

Now that the SSL has concluded, it’s time to answer the important question—did those results mean anything? Sure, I doubt many will argue that Dark wasn’t a deserved champion, but with 3rd placed Solar’s recent struggles, and a whole host of high finishers unproven in other competitions, I think it’s fair to say that those results were far from definitive. Of all the players waiting for further appraisal, Patience tops the list. His ZvP results have been infrequent but good so far—wins over soO and RagnaroK in SSL, and over a weak Symbol in the WCA Qualifiers, while soO picked up the revenge win in Proleague. ByuL too is somewhat unproven in the new Legacy scene. He fell early in both leagues, and his 5-5 record is probably indicative of his current standing—good enough to win against lesser players, but as yet unable to reach the peaks he hit in HotS against the very best. Either way, this set will be very interesting to watch for a glance at where both players stand.

Bomber <Frost> Bunny

Just when you thought it was safe to rule Bomber out, up he stepped with two massive wins over Cure and Dark for Afreeca. Just when you thought that Bomber was back in true 2013 form, he was outthought and outplayed by Reality. The endless conundrum of Bomber continues then; endlessly confident, endlessly unpredictable. He’s sent himself out again this week, and relative to his past few Proleague games (losses to Reality and Stats, wins against Cure and Dark), Bunny is probably his weakest opponent in quite some time. Ever since his successful Code S Ro.32 group over a weak pair of zergs in Symbol and Soulkey, Bunny’s not had much luck. Dumped out of the GSL by Dear and MyuNgSiK, he’s come up against a scary conveyor belt of Proleague talent. He’s lost to Maru, INnoVation, Stats, Reality and Dark—hardly easy at all—and Bomber too will be his ‘easiest’ challenge in quite some time. We’ve seen far more impressive play from Bomber recently, but while he’s done enough to be the favourite, we’ve also experienced enough Bomber hype to still be a bit cautious right now.


Super <Overgrowth> RagnaroK

Super’s been one of those players so far this year who’s been far more notable for his Proleague play than his individual commitments. His Code S experience ended early, as Trap exposed all the weaknesses of his poor disruptor play in PvP. On the contrary, he’s been sent out on almost every occasion by Afreeca to little success. His PvT may have picked up recently, with aggressive wins over INnoVation and GuMiho, and his PvP remains weak, but PvZ is a complete unknown quantity. A 2-0 win over DeParture came from the MVP zerg’s gambly openings, and is his sole PvZ offline since February. He’s played a lot more online though (16-11 in PvZ in the same period), although given that most of those wins have come over Chinese zergs in various Douyu Cups, it’s not the most useful data either. RagnaroK on the other hand has been similarly invisible, and the few games we’ve seen tend to end early in true RagnaroK cheesy style. I favour RagnaroK here—I think he’s got too many tricks in the early game for Super, and it’s important to remember his match last week, a 30 minute macro slugfest with Dream that went completely against type. Maybe expect something a little extra from the CJ zerg here.

Ace: <Dusk Towers>

Well, yet again the CJ choice is obvious—herO or ByuL, and probably dependent on which one wins their match. aLive has been Afreeca’s ace both times it’s been required this year. In form, he’d be a decent choice—both herO and ByuL have shown weakness against terrans recently—and he’s already preparing for a match against Stats on Tuesday. If it’s not aLive, then I think Patience has a shot at the job should he beat ByuL first time round.

Predictions

Curious < herO
Patience > ByuL
Bomber > Bunny
Super < RagnaroK
Patience > herO

Afreeca 3 - 2 CJ

SKT vs Jin Air

Dark <Dusk Towers> Maru

Once again, Maru faces SKT. Once again, SKT have managed to sneak out one of their zergs against him. While we won’t know for sure until Season 2 rolls around (should he make it out of Code A this time…), Maru definitely seems to be one of the very best players in the world once more, with the caveat that series play and Bo1 results can be two very different things indeed. However, there’s just something that the SKT zergs in particular have over him (series results stand at Dark 6-2, soO 5-2). Last time we saw Maru TvZing on Dusk Towers was the Solar game, and the debut of his skyterran build. Solar seemed completely stumped by it, but Dark will surely enter here with a plan should Maru reach for the same style again. The SSL champion is simply too good, and while he’s slipped up a couple times recently—outwitted by Bomber’s archaic style, and teamkilled by Dream in the GSL—his ZvT is still incredibly formidable. His destruction of TY last week was one of the more impressive games we’ve seen yet in LotV, and SKT have an excellent chance of a good start here.

Classic <King Sejong Station> sOs

After a month long break, Classic emerged from the ashes last week. Last seen bullied out of the GSL by SpeeD and Solar, he returned triumphantly to beat Zest. Zest beat Dear 4-0 to make his second GSL Finals on Friday, and is quite clearly no slouch in the matchup—it’s clear that we have to regard Classic as an immediate threat again (in non-PvZ matchups, at least). His opponent tonight also struggled in the early season. Where they differ though is that sOs hasn’t had quite the same landmark result to announce his return to the top ranks. He’s been inconsistent, and PvP seems to be a weakness—wins over Zoun and Patience, and losses to Zest, herO, Stats and Dear suggest that he’s struggling to cope with the top tier PvPers of the moment. While the inconsistency that sOs has become famed for by definition means that his form can spark into life at any moment, I’ll cautiously back Classic here.

soO <Overgrowth> Rogue

Ever since 2014, soO has been the king ZvZer of Korea. Try saying that about any other player—who else has been by far the best player in a matchup for three years? Maru’s TvP perhaps—though as yet untested in Legacy, or PartinG’s PvT? It’s certainly an imposing record, and one he seems determined to hold onto for some time yet. After a debut Legacy loss to Solar in the SSL in December, soO has been unbeaten in ZvZ. He’s had a couple of scares—DRG in particular fought him all the way in the GSL—but six challengers have come at him, and six have lost. Now though, he’s up against his toughest test yet. Rogue too has dropped a sole ZvZ in LotV to Bly online, and although he hasn’t played some of the top zergs yet, his affinity in HotS for the mirror matchup means that he certainly needs to be taken seriously. After all, it was Rogue who dealt soO a crushing loss in the last HotS GSL, knocking him out after a great match on Coda. Still, it’s hard to argue with a 14-1 record in ZvZ over the past two seasons, and soO is undoubtedly the favourite.

Dream <Lerilak Crest> Trap

So far, Dream 2016 has been exactly the same as Dream 2015 for two matchups. He’s stylishly strong in TvZ, though still capable of losing against players you’d think he’d beat every day of the week; and passable in TvT, though outclassed severely by the best in the business. It’s TvP which is the question mark remaining. Wins over a weak Seed and a bumbling herO in GSL were more notable for his opponents’ errors than any truly great play of his own. In Proleague, he executed a slick timing attack against Dear, while losing too much to herO’s adept / pylon aggression. It’s difficult to truly get a grasp of how strong he is in the matchup, although it’s not a great sign that teammate INnoVation too is struggling in the matchup. On the other hand, Trap’s gone back to basics; after struggling in the late game against TaeJa and TY in GSL, he went on the aggressive against TY on Overgrowth last week, executing the same blink stalker play at the natural that we’ve been watching since 2014. Neither player has a particularly auspicious record in the matchup, but if pushed I’d opt for Dream here.

Ace: <Frost>

If you’ve got a 9-0 record in Proleague, chances are you’ve done enough to nail down the team ace spot. Unfortunately, it all comes down to whether Jin Air trust Maru to beat an SKT zerg. SKT surely have to send Dark or soO—it’s too risky relying on someone else should Maru actually come out, and so Jin Air will surely be prepping some snipe build for the ace. Rogue is a likely choice, and should he come up against Dark, should actually have a great shot at taking the win for the team.

Predictions

Dark > Maru
Classic > sOs
soO > Rogue

SKT 3 - 0 Jin Air

Samsung vs MVP

Journey <Overgrowth> GuMiho

Journey’s a player who’s gone under the radar pretty much throughout his four year career. Hell, he’s only played 68 offline matches since his debut—no wonder he’s one of those terrans forever marked as ‘has potential’. A bit part SPL player for Samsung last year (5-5), he hasn’t really been given much more of a chance this year either (1-2). His televised Legacy TvTs this year haven’t looked great—a mistake-laden 3-2 win over KeeN in Code A, as well as a 1-2 loss to TaeJa in Code S, and GuMiho should really fancy his chances here.

Dear <Lerilak Crest> Seed

This is, on paper one of the biggest mismatches of the week. Let’s try to look past the 0-4 elephant in the room for now; Dear is still clearly one of the best PvPers in Korea. Just because Zest showed that he was significantly better than him doesn’t change that; it only shows how far Zest stands out above the rest of the protoss pack. Dear’s ego might have taken a significant battering, but if he plays to past form he should be a match for anyone not named Zest. Seed’s a good few tiers below him on the protoss standings, and Dear is the overwhelming favourite here. However, Seed’s always been known as a sniper, and a player who’ll tailor builds for the occasion. It’s not a skill he’s displayed often of late, but it’s always something to bear in mind—for all his failure over the past couple years, there’s a reason Choya keeps sending him out.

BrAvO <King Sejong Station> Ryung

Finally, it’s time for two of the game’s premier TvT snipers to clash offline. Ryung is one of the cult heroes of Wings of Liberty—maintaining a 64% offline TvT winrate in that terran-packed expansion is an eye-opening achievement. Meanwhile, BrAvO boasts a 14-5 record in Proleague TvT; one that improves to 8-2 if you only include the past two seasons. There have been all-time great terrans with imposing TvT records, but there’s a strong argument that these two are the best TvT specialists in Starcraft 2 history. They’ve met only once before (a 2-0 win for Ryung in the IEM Cologne 2014 qualifiers), but an offline clash between the two is something to savour.

Armani <Frost> Blaze

Much like Journey, Armani’s another Samsung rookie who’s been hidden away in the depths of the teamhouse. First offline game in January 2013; a mere 65 games since. Legacy hasn’t changed that one bit. He was knocked out of Code A by Creator in one of the worst series of the round, while he was soundly beaten by Rogue’s 13/12 ling bane aggression last week in his only Proleague appearance of 2016 so far. He’s up against Blaze, a player with similarly limited exposure this year (Code A loss to TaeJa, losses to Maru, Stats, ByuL and a win against Hush in Proleague). However, the big difference is that Blaze has actually done it before—an 8-4 record in Proleague last year was impressive. Forced to pick between a player in unknown form with no history of success, and a player in unknown form with much better results last year, I’ll go for the latter every time.

Ace: <Orbital Shipyard>

GuMiho has been the ace player for MVP on the past two occasions, and they really don’t have the player roster to choose someone else here given DeParture’s struggles. Meanwhile, Dear is probably an easy pick for Samsung if he’s not too affected by his loss to Zest. If he is though, and if Solar is still being benched, it’s going to be an incredibly tough decision for Stork.

Predictions

Journey < GuMiho
Dear > Seed
BrAvO < Ryung
Armani < Blaze

Samsung 1 - 3 MVP

Afreeca vs KT

Billowy <Dusk Towers> TY

The difference between GSL TY and Proleague this year has been vast. In the GSL, he has been extremely impressive, dropping only one series to Dear on his way to the Grand Finals. In Proleague, he’s on a five match losing streak. Things are made even more complicated, however, by the fact he’s up against teammate Zest on Saturday. While Zest probably knows everything in TY’s TvP arsenal already, TY’s likely going to still be reluctant to show off tactics he’ll use in the GSL. Billowy is a bit part player for Afreeca, and by any reckoning, TY should beat him. If there’s one time for Billowy to shine though, it’s in Proleague against KT Rolster. From his all kill for MVP in 2014, to his win over Stats late last year, he always seems to deliver his signature brand of weird gateway aggression.

Patience <King Sejong Station> Zest

Did you watch the GSL Semifinals last week? If so, there’s probably no doubt in your mind who the favourite here is. Zest obliterated Dear 4-0, controlling each game from start to finish, and at this moment should be regarded as the finest PvPer in the world bar none. Patience himself has shown some nifty plays in the matchup in the SSL, and the Bo1 format should suit him well, but up against Zest, I don’t think he stands a chance. The KT star has shown some dodginess in Proleague—losses to Rogue and DeParture recently were pretty sloppy, while Classic outplayed him last week—but when you’re coming off that big a win, faith in him should be at an all time high. The only slight issue, similarly to TY, is the GSL Final that’s coming later in the week.

Super <Overgrowth> Leenock

As mentioned above for his match against RagnaroK, we still know very little about Super’s PvZ. He has been pretty lucky this week—neither RagnaroK nor Leenock are among the top zergs in the competition—and should he win against the CJ zerg on Monday, he should be heading into this match full on confidence. Leenock has been struggling hard this year in all three matchups. His Code S Ro.32 group was probably his nadir, beaten easily by both herO (understandable) and Seed (less so). Granted, he did win a revenge match against herO a couple weeks back in Proleague, but impressive moments have been few and far between.


aLive <Lerilak Crest> Stats

After being dropped / rested for their first match this week, aLive is back to face KT. Unfortunately, after a great start to the season, things have fallen apart for him. He hasn’t won a match since mid-February; in that time, he’s accrued a 1-13 map record. It’s not like he’s up against an easy opponent here either—Stats is flying after his great SSL campaign. Another KT win looks very likely here.

Ace: <Frost>

Afreeca started off the season with no real ace player, and while aLive’s rise in Round 1 kept them fighting, his collapse in Round 2 has left them in much the same position. Meanwhile, Zest is currently the best player in the world (coronation planned for Saturday). If it gets to this stage, KT will most likely win, unless they decided to prep an ace player that’s neither Zest nor TY to give them more time to get ready for Finals Day.

Predictions

Billowy < TY
Patience < Zest
Super > Leenock
aLive < Stats

Afreeca 1 - 3 KT