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On February 04 2016 06:09 sicklucker wrote: If ticktock is town its because he preemptively made this theory without knowing what the nks would be. It kind of makes sense for him ot keep going with tihs theory even if there some holes in it because "the nk proved him right in his mind" right? he predicted it right? why would a town ever waver after that
This would fall apart in the case on me being scum with Cake though. Kus then I have all the knowledge I need to make that post.
I'm not scum though, so God Reads!
Also just kus, I also made these god reads D3.
On January 27 2016 14:08 Tictock wrote:Ok so... started this expecting to just make a simple list post but since the game is at a manageable size now I'll give you all more of my thinking. Remember, you asked for this. I'm pretty sure these people are town: 13. Koshi ( + Show Spoiler +Initial read was town, got worried based off EoD1 and him roleblocking me solely because I started scumreading him, EoD2 and varies interactions have me pretty sold on him being town.
D2 should pretty much prove Koshi as town, only tinfoil left is if he was scum with FF and bussed him ) 15. The Shining ( + Show Spoiler +not sure I have really solid reasoning, so I could be wrong. but he convinced me early on that his mindset was towny. I'd prob only review if presented a good case on him ) 17. sicklucker ( + Show Spoiler +gave reasoning before, lots of things make me think he's town though ) These people might not be town, but are definitely not good lynches today 21. CopCake ( + Show Spoiler +gut/meta read says town. Shoveled GB upon request. It may not be super strong, but I think her role would be optimal for scum later in the game to help her team. So using it like this makes it unlikely she had a real agenda for her role. ) 22. Palmar ( + Show Spoiler +Has been pretty pro town, and sorta an ass while doing it. Oh yea also he did a good job finding scum D1 ) 12. Superbia ( + Show Spoiler +Honestly I'm not sure and I've been doubting my initial townread on him since he took CPRDoc and started dropping off. His shots on VA and me don't look very good to me either, it's like he's only shooting low hanging fruit. I've played with him when he was Vig and his play was a lot different ( his filter that game) but idk how strong that is given the vast setup differences. I left him in this section because even if he is mafia he should be trying to hit other mafia, which makes him more of a threat to mafia than to town. ) 5. Keirathi ( + Show Spoiler +I doubt scum fakes that spreadsheet thing he did, though as I'm typing I have to wonder why he waited till N2 to share it. If he gave up on it early why not just share it then?
Ehh checking timestamps it seems pretty impossible that he faked that in response to what was going on at the time, and if your gunna preplan something like that I think you'd just make some real effort into the current gamestate not shit from preD1. So there, it's even tinfoil proof.
Oh also there's other stuff but I feel like I used all my space here. ) Which leaves me with these people to look at even though I've got 2 scum somewhere above this. 1. disformation ( + Show Spoiler + Was suspect of him most of the early game, he did something that made me townread him more. Yes, I actually can't think of what it was atm. Think it's time to take a long hard look at his filter and see if he deserved that TR.
Initial thinking is that he's been pretty active and open but hasn't really been putting in the effort that I've seen him make as town. Palmar also was right to ping out his GB case, it was really over the top for the actual content it had. Then again I think I've made bad filter posts like that before as town so idk.
At the very least Dis should be happy that his nickname now implies how other people read him as well as his own reads. ) 3. Rels ( + Show Spoiler +I'll be honest, I'm mostly letting my fear get to me. Rels plays a strong active scum game though and I think his play this game might just be that. I don't have much conclusive to support that but I'll def be going through his filter checking some things.
Some things I've noticed that Rels does as scum that might help: he doesn't bus (would be extra bad in this game), he goes after low-hanging fruit, over focuses on small details to make scum reads off of. Those are the sorta things I'll be looking for ) 4. Onegu ( + Show Spoiler +honestly pretty torn on Onegu. I thought the logic of him killing Alot as scum made sense, but I'm not sure if that's enough now. I need to check some stuff about how he's been using his power too.
This is pure tinfoil but I was thinking Onegu's role and the way he's been using it could still be used rather effectively as scum. What if Onegu is scum and his team have been targeting themselves with KP and he's been bussing his teammates with someone they picked? Gets his team a lot of cred as they "get shot"
I could well be way off course, but if that's true though it would add up as a team of FF, Onegu, Palmar, Koshi makes sense even given how D2 went down. )
So yea, feeling pretty good about where my head has been at this game.
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On February 02 2016 08:44 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2016 08:42 The Shining wrote: Super no shooting makes sense too if he has kp anyway. Use his kp, no shoot, push me as the missing kp because he knew I was being rbd Except that if you are scum I literally give town another lynch for no reason. (5v2 -> 4v2/4v1, very likely 4v1) Oh yeah, and I also get rid of the big question mark in the progress (and very, very likely reduce the scum count to 1). Yeah, no.
but if your scum you do not know (and probably think like everyone else) that gb was scum I dont get this logic
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On February 04 2016 06:14 sicklucker wrote: acualy its just so far fetch. like tmi but hoe could he have predicted the situation ? THERES NO WAY TICKTOCKS THIS GOOD
Sorry, post game will verify that I am in fact that good.
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And yea that post from Super made no sense to me, his numbers are all wrong and he's talking as though they (Shining, who he is talking to, and himself) are both scum in his mind.
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Ya whatever ok im never lynching you for other reasons I wont bother explaining. somehow in my head your mechanically clear as well because of that roleblock/your ptoential teams.
So your right about super or what I think is more likely. The shining doing the only thing he can do jumping on and hoping we lynch super.
Shining really has no other way to win as scum other then to do that you realize?
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On February 04 2016 06:16 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2016 06:09 sicklucker wrote: If ticktock is town its because he preemptively made this theory without knowing what the nks would be. It kind of makes sense for him ot keep going with tihs theory even if there some holes in it because "the nk proved him right in his mind" right? he predicted it right? why would a town ever waver after that This would fall apart in the case on me being scum with Cake though. Kus then I have all the knowledge I need to make that post. I'm not scum though, so God Reads! Also just kus, I also made these god reads D3. Show nested quote +On January 27 2016 14:08 Tictock wrote:Ok so... started this expecting to just make a simple list post but since the game is at a manageable size now I'll give you all more of my thinking. Remember, you asked for this. I'm pretty sure these people are town: 13. Koshi ( + Show Spoiler +Initial read was town, got worried based off EoD1 and him roleblocking me solely because I started scumreading him, EoD2 and varies interactions have me pretty sold on him being town.
D2 should pretty much prove Koshi as town, only tinfoil left is if he was scum with FF and bussed him ) 15. The Shining ( + Show Spoiler +not sure I have really solid reasoning, so I could be wrong. but he convinced me early on that his mindset was towny. I'd prob only review if presented a good case on him ) 17. sicklucker ( + Show Spoiler +gave reasoning before, lots of things make me think he's town though ) These people might not be town, but are definitely not good lynches today 21. CopCake ( + Show Spoiler +gut/meta read says town. Shoveled GB upon request. It may not be super strong, but I think her role would be optimal for scum later in the game to help her team. So using it like this makes it unlikely she had a real agenda for her role. ) 22. Palmar ( + Show Spoiler +Has been pretty pro town, and sorta an ass while doing it. Oh yea also he did a good job finding scum D1 ) 12. Superbia ( + Show Spoiler +Honestly I'm not sure and I've been doubting my initial townread on him since he took CPRDoc and started dropping off. His shots on VA and me don't look very good to me either, it's like he's only shooting low hanging fruit. I've played with him when he was Vig and his play was a lot different ( his filter that game) but idk how strong that is given the vast setup differences. I left him in this section because even if he is mafia he should be trying to hit other mafia, which makes him more of a threat to mafia than to town. ) 5. Keirathi ( + Show Spoiler +I doubt scum fakes that spreadsheet thing he did, though as I'm typing I have to wonder why he waited till N2 to share it. If he gave up on it early why not just share it then?
Ehh checking timestamps it seems pretty impossible that he faked that in response to what was going on at the time, and if your gunna preplan something like that I think you'd just make some real effort into the current gamestate not shit from preD1. So there, it's even tinfoil proof.
Oh also there's other stuff but I feel like I used all my space here. ) Which leaves me with these people to look at even though I've got 2 scum somewhere above this. 1. disformation ( + Show Spoiler + Was suspect of him most of the early game, he did something that made me townread him more. Yes, I actually can't think of what it was atm. Think it's time to take a long hard look at his filter and see if he deserved that TR.
Initial thinking is that he's been pretty active and open but hasn't really been putting in the effort that I've seen him make as town. Palmar also was right to ping out his GB case, it was really over the top for the actual content it had. Then again I think I've made bad filter posts like that before as town so idk.
At the very least Dis should be happy that his nickname now implies how other people read him as well as his own reads. ) 3. Rels ( + Show Spoiler +I'll be honest, I'm mostly letting my fear get to me. Rels plays a strong active scum game though and I think his play this game might just be that. I don't have much conclusive to support that but I'll def be going through his filter checking some things.
Some things I've noticed that Rels does as scum that might help: he doesn't bus (would be extra bad in this game), he goes after low-hanging fruit, over focuses on small details to make scum reads off of. Those are the sorta things I'll be looking for ) 4. Onegu ( + Show Spoiler +honestly pretty torn on Onegu. I thought the logic of him killing Alot as scum made sense, but I'm not sure if that's enough now. I need to check some stuff about how he's been using his power too.
This is pure tinfoil but I was thinking Onegu's role and the way he's been using it could still be used rather effectively as scum. What if Onegu is scum and his team have been targeting themselves with KP and he's been bussing his teammates with someone they picked? Gets his team a lot of cred as they "get shot"
I could well be way off course, but if that's true though it would add up as a team of FF, Onegu, Palmar, Koshi makes sense even given how D2 went down. ) So yea, feeling pretty good about where my head has been at this game.
Yes I did see this post and I had a hard time putting you on a scum team because of it and decided your town
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Like your not with onegu. Rels and cake are definately together. And theres alot of signs that disinfo was with rels and not with you.
So you were roleblocked and could not have delivered kp. So you are town moving on
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ACUALY FUCK MAYBE YOU ARE WITH ONEGU you voting him first acualy means you wanted him to get his power. Well whatever you still might not be with onegu and that has nothing to do with the roleblock
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Shining and super really need to batlle it out here. I do have the hammer you know..
reading some more probably supers filter again to remind me hes probably town
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On February 04 2016 06:28 sicklucker wrote: Shining and super really need to batlle it out here. I do have the hammer you know..
reading some more probably supers filter again to remind me hes probably town
Lol you are waffling all over the place. Do what you need to do but I'm sure TT is right and so am I. And Super ditched the thread right when I got to work and started posting more. So Idk what I'm supposed to battle out here.
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SL I still think Super is the last scum here. I know I could be wrong and TS is just saying what I want to hear to keep me from tinfoiling him too much, as things stand right now though he's not winning as scum and he doesn't seem too bothered by that, so idk.
I still believe in the associations I did last night though?
Like right now I see this game as: Sicklucker, The Shining, Superbia
You can tinfoil all you want that I'm not good enough to have made the reads I have this game, but then I would have bussed my entire team over the past few days.
I have to leave really soon, and I'm gunna leave my vote where it is.
It's gunna be your call if you should lynch Super or sleep.
If we lynch Super and lose to a scum TS, I'm clearly to blame for the loss.
If we no lynch and lose to a scum Super I'm probably gunna hold it over you for awhile.
If you all lynch me while I'm gone, I'll just feel bad, but less so if Super is scum.
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Actually this is more accurate:
Sicklucker, The Shining, Superbia
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Like I can't really see anything terribly towny Super has done today.
He took the time to respond to why WoT which is pretty towny, but then some of his posts early today still feel wrong even after he tried to explain his PoV.
I also can't get over how upset he got when I started to post why I thought TS was town, then asked TS if he thought it was weird I TR him like I was, and then asked me to make a case on TS. None of that makes any sense to me if Super is town and thinks TS is scum.
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OK seriusly I g2g.
Sorry, if I can find a way to get online I will, but I don't think I can.
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On February 04 2016 06:30 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2016 06:28 sicklucker wrote: Shining and super really need to batlle it out here. I do have the hammer you know..
reading some more probably supers filter again to remind me hes probably town Lol you are waffling all over the place. Do what you need to do but I'm sure TT is right and so am I. And Super ditched the thread right when I got to work and started posting more. So Idk what I'm supposed to battle out here.
of all the players in the game I have the smallest read on you so maybe you should help me out since I have to decide the game?
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Like if we lose because I vote you here shining your equally responsible dont think otherwise
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Its fine tt your never getting lynched and I have the hammer anyway. your presence is not required
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and the votes an hour later then I thought. I should probably take another break
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Shinings entire reason to townread TT is because hes not voting shining and thats false logic. and I dont think your trying to think about it since I told you thats not true?
On February 02 2016 09:00 The Shining wrote:The safe scum play is to agree with my ml since he'd know I'm not scum, not try to target and case one of the townread players in the thread. His reads on disfo and rels were also pretty good and when I get a chance, I'll re-read his filter but I know my alignment and this is enough to think he isn't scum. If he was scum, he lynches the easiest town to lynch, like you and SL are trying to do. Not defend me last day phase and continue to do so and case you at eon.
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Acualy tt if you can be here at deadline that would be cool. Because if I side with super you need to vote shining because super might decide your mafia over shining
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