EPT##Vote Sulfurus
Newbie Student Mafia XIII - Page 63
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
##Vote Sulfurus | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
On July 27 2015 23:43 Rels wrote: Instead of being super aggressive all the time, could you answer this ? Everyone and their mothers was saying that Barakos was scummy af except for Tictock. If I posted my same read on him would that have achieved anything? | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On July 27 2015 23:49 MoosyDoosy wrote: Everyone and their mothers was saying that Barakos was scummy af except for Tictock. If I posted my same read on him would that have achieved anything? By "hammered to the ground" I understood "a lot of people voting for him". So actually you meant "a lot of people suspecting him" right ? | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Looking through Breshke now, I could see him being either alignment. To sum up - Vote on Barakos was early but it was after people noticed the reaction test, and it was after Barakos left 16h in, he voted 10h after. Could go either way. - He spends a decent part of the first cycle on ruxxar and then out of nowhere he says "I don't think ruxxar is scum anymore" granted there's a 24h gap between the posts he was on about it, so maybe it's him just being unclear if he actually read the thread or he could be scum giving an easy townread. - Evolution of Sulfurus read (beyond the initial townread) is unclear and beyond the request on Sulfurus' read on n00bking, he asks Sulfurus read on n00b, which Sulfurus provides and then I see Breshke saying I like n00bking's response regarding the voting wagon. Breshke defends Sulfurus saying "mafia wouldn't do X" not sure if that's a meta read in the next posts he's doing but if he's not really going anywhere on Sulfurus (I think a similar point was raised on Barakos?), I think a Breshke and Sulfurus scumteam could be possible. It would at least fit the theory that the scumteam was ineffective, whoever raised that point up. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Most sure of him at this point unless I can find something more definitive on other people. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On July 27 2015 23:46 MoosyDoosy wrote: Tictock is town. He's starting to post more and is actually doing work as he usually starts doing once D2 starts. I still expect more tho. However, his reads are all wrong and he needs to start from scratch because it's been a disaster for him since D1. And to answer his question: As for my evolution of reads on Breshke. While he has been having townie interactions with others, he’s been afk for far too long for me to enjoy having him in my townie circle. My primary fear is Mafia that is afk so that it’s almost impossible to read them. For now he is null due to his continued absence from the thread although if he posts or answers my questions I will be happy to re-evaluate. Again, there's the possibility of a world with Illuminati so let's not all get so tunneled. Illuminati with respect to this game means....? Alright, so I'm a little more clear on the last part of why you'd lynch Breshke. Fair. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
And if I'm wrong on one those three, mayyyyyyybe MD, TT or NM, though I will really need some rock solid cases to consider voting them. If you're not voting Sulfurus, or just want to know the case against him, it's here: NM thoughts noobking's thoughts Disformation's thoughts Rels' case Questions for Breshke: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2015 22:10 Rels wrote: @Breshke Q1 Reasons for lynching Flexes ? You had quite a few posts defending Sulfurus. See spoiler. + Show Spoiler + On July 25 2015 11:11 Breshke wrote: Yeah sulfurus is town On July 25 2015 13:24 Breshke wrote: His like third? post in the game was him posting an auto list. On July 25 2015 14:28 Breshke wrote: Ok that makes sense I guess. If you are comparing this to our mason game it isn't going to be the same, there i was more enthusiastic partly because i felt like i owed it to you. This phase is also over friday/saturday for me which is not good for me. Was there much more to talk about? I'm fairly sure i also said i thought noobking was town. The bara wagon is good, even if it isn't I think bara is skilled enough to convince me/others that he is town so there isn't really much more to look into about him at the moment if he doesn't come back. The sulf read might seem like nothing but tell me if he is mafia why does he put out an auto list. He even has said that he will discuss the reads when people ask. Like why does mafia do this especially when they are usually an inactive player. It just feels so out there that sulf as mafia with perfect imformation thinks to himself yeah i will put out a list where ive solved the game in my third post. On July 25 2015 14:46 Breshke wrote: I thought it might have been going somewhere i wasn't going to interrupt. Also if it didn't go somewhere and you continued that would have been good info as well. How is the timing weird? What did you expect him to have on bara though other than what is already out there. I wouldn't say it is scummy that he has no "new" things about bara if anything it is scummy that he chose to explain that read first and in so many words instead of just saying like "what rayn said was good" but i think it is possible that he thinks it wouldnt be appropriate giving that response. Sulf can you explain your Noobking scumread, that is the one I am most interested in. On July 25 2015 14:49 Breshke wrote: Also general things like thread sentiment can be a bit meh like for example im scumeading moosey and bara. That is thread sentiment and ive taken less hard stances than sul did in that one post yet you havn't said you thought it was scummy that im following thread sentiment. Yes i get that other than that point mine and sulfs play has been different but having that as one of the main things you don't like about him is very general and it is easy to scumread an inactive player for stuff like that. On July 25 2015 15:01 Breshke wrote: Then ask him specifically about those people? You most recently asked him about damdred and flex and from what i can tell you agree with him that damdred is town so leave that for now and ask specifically about the reads you disagree with.. If sulf is town he wants to engage with people about his list and if it is a "las ditch effort" from a sulf mafia then it will be hard for him to back his list up with reasoning Q2 Are you still town reading him ? In particular, you adviced to ask Sulfurus for more infos on his list. Disformation did a few times and never got an answer. Q3 What do you think of that ? Questions for scott: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2015 22:16 Rels wrote: Two questions. Why is TT really weird ? rayn said "be aware of sulf and breshke" You answer "I just don't see Breshke being mafia with such an early vote and not moving it" But Sulfurus voted 8 minutes after Breshke and didn't move it. Why do you mention Breshke and not Sulfurus ? | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
On July 28 2015 00:00 NocturneMage wrote: Illuminati with respect to this game means....? Alright, so I'm a little more clear on the last part of why you'd lynch Breshke. Fair. Prepare your tinfoil hats. Mafia may be one of the inner core of townies and have given us the slip. I doubt it but it happens. On July 27 2015 23:55 Rels wrote: By "hammered to the ground" I understood "a lot of people voting for him". So actually you meant "a lot of people suspecting him" right ? Correct. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 20:26 Rels wrote: Yeah it is WIFOM, but it is a plausible scenario. At the very least, it proves that him voting / pushing Barakos is not town indicative. It is a plausible scenario. The only issue I would have with it is that I question whether Sulfurus would really believe that this "Town Cred" (once he had earned it) would actually enable him to lead mislynches. Imagine you are Scum Sulfy in this game, and consider the performance of Scum Sulfy in his last two games. Can you talk yourself into believing that if you bus Barakos and people townread you for it, you'll actually be active enough (and convincing enough) to be a major factor in getting some mislynches later? Seems iffy at best. But whatever. Human beings are notoriously bad at self-analysis. So maybe he would think he could pull it off, even if I think it sounds hard to swallow. And it's possible that he wasn't thinking that far down the line. He might not have looked beyond "bus partner, get Town Cred" to actually think about what he needed to DO with that Town Cred once he had it. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 22:35 NocturneMage wrote: To add - I know what bussing means, but I'm trying to grasp the relationship between where someone is on a voting wagon and the likeliness of that person being scum. Depending on the nature of the lynch, there are certain places along the voting order where you are more likely and less likely to find Scum. In a mislynch on a Town player, there are particular slots in that voting order where the scum are more likely to be sitting. In a very tight vote count that results in a Scum lynch, it is less likely that there will be Scum votes on the lynched player at all. (There was just an example of this in Newbie XII, where Sulfurus was lynched as Scum in a tight vote, and it turned out that 0 of the players who voted against Sulf were Scum.) In a landslide vote that results in a Scum lynch, there are again particular slots in the voting order where a teammate who is bussing is more likely to be sitting. I learned what these slots are through experience in my own games, and when applying it to games that I only observed, the patterns hold true. (Not all the time, of course. But often enough to call them "patterns.") Ticktock has apparently learned what the slots are through his own experience as well, so that when he named 3 players that are most likely to have bussed Barakos, he named exactly the same 3 players I would have. And when I questioned him about how he selected those 3 names, he gave exactly the same reasoning I used. After thinking this through pretty carefully, I don't think that I should offer you a full explanation of exactly why those are the slots to look in. Because the Mafia may not know about these patterns and how they work (and if YOU'RE Mafia, then it is pretty obvious that the Mafia doesn't know about them) and if I overexplain the principles, I'm inviting you to WIFOM me with them later in the game. If you only know which slots but don't know WHY, you'll have a tougher time putting together reasoning that could trick me into participating in a mislynch. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 27 2015 23:31 Damdred wrote: And that would possibly still be my list tt probably would be more towards the towny end of things atm, moosy more towards the bottom. We need more specific language from you, if you want to keep Sulfurus out of the Noose. Where is Flexes in that progression? If Moosy is "more towards the bottom" then is Flexes AT the bottom? Or is Moosy your best scum read, among the players who weren't on the wagon? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43188 Posts
If you think whrn every single person in the game is okay with lynching him except for me and Damdred, will he flip mafia? Lynch tictock. Unless you cant see why he is mafia, especially with this retarded push on sulfurus, then at least vote for scott, who is also mafia. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On July 28 2015 02:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: We do not lynch sulfurus. If you think whrn every single person in the game is okay with lynching him except for me and Damdred, will he flip mafia? Lynch tictock. Unless you cant see why he is mafia, especially with this retarded push on sulfurus, then at least vote for scott, who is also mafia. I expect this is evident, but you'd have a much better chance of me voting against Scott than against Ticktock. If Damdred thinks Moosy is the lynch (instead of either of your targets) then I'll let you guys have that debate. I don't really think Moosy is a good lynch today though. | ||
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disformation
Germany8352 Posts
On July 28 2015 02:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: We do not lynch sulfurus. If you think whrn every single person in the game is okay with lynching him except for me and Damdred, will he flip mafia? Lynch tictock. Unless you cant see why he is mafia, especially with this retarded push on sulfurus, then at least vote for scott, who is also mafia. Meh. Will read TT's filter again. Willing to switch to scott, if he doesn't show up with good. Still would like at least some pressure on Sulfurus. Random note: super tired, couldn't sleep for 2hours after going to bed and have slept only 4h as a result. So this stuff might happen some time tomorrow, since it might colapse into bed soonish. | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
(4) Sulfurus: N00bKing, disinformation, MoosyDoosy, NocturneMage (2) MoosyDoosy: TicTock, Sulfurus (1) TicTock: Raynpelikoneet Not voting: (5) Rels, ruXxar, scott31337, Damdred, Breshke | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On July 27 2015 18:50 Rels wrote: Why Sulfurus has to be mafia: the easiest case in the world 1. Did nothing for half of day 1 Yes. In spoiler you will find the only post Sulfurus made D1. Not even good apparently. + Show Spoiler + 2. His playstyle Sulfurus played three games prior to this one: newbie X, XI and XII. He was lynched in all three. In the first he was VT (see? I'm learning). In the other two he was GF. He had the same playstyle that is displayed is this game; very few posts, not much explanations, sudden attacks on people. I just can't believe he would keep this style if he was townie. 3. Voting on Barakos Sulfurus voted on Barakos after half of D1, clearly sheeping the thread sentiment. While voting for a mafia is never scum indicative, the way he did it is not town indicative either because: - Barakos hadn't posted for 8 hours at the time. - He almost only talked about Barakos. In fact, he only made two meaningful post: one case on Barakos, and one case on noobking. We'll talk about the noobking's post later, no worries. 4. No explanation on his list Sulfurus posted this: But he only explained a few of his reads, ignoring these posts: He even quoted this last post but never answered: Plus, in his Barakos post he said: So he "started" and never continue. 5. He voted moosy with no explanation Moosy was number 2 on his list, and he never explained his read of him. Just voted him off. 6. His case on noobking is bad noobking's defense was good so I have nothing to add here. + Show Spoiler + On July 26 2015 11:28 n00bKing wrote: Which I probably wouldn't say, if I were Scum, and knew that Barakos was about to flip Red. Like, you're defeating your own argument, without me needing to do anything. Rels is not even trying to scumread me in that post. He's just defending himself. (As he should. I'm not saying it was scum indicative for him to be defending himself, or for him to ONLY be defending himself. I'm just saying he wasn't trying to indicate that anything I said made me Scum at that time.) Uhhh, you are misrepresenting my position. Read what the quote actually says. I did not ever try to say that rayn gave a scum read to Rels. I said that rayn refused to defend Rels. If you doubt that I'm right, ask rayn yourself, I expect he remembers. Keep grasping at those straws. I said he was unmemorable right before saying I was going to look at his filter from that game. After looking at the filter, he has at least 50 posts in that game that are not in the format you were talking about. The fact that I found him to be unmemorable before looking at his filter means nothing. I don't even know what you're trying to say. How is that post from ruXxar a "gem" and how is it supposed to make me look bad? Conclusion Mafia. ##Vote Sulfurus Pretty decent case, I could sheep this.. ##Vote Sulfurus I'm still not caring for TT or n00bking either, n00b is really defensive and doesn't look like his town game. Pretty sure two of the mafia are in these three. I'm doing some research on Chronic kidney disease, lipids and apolipoproteins so I'll be on and off today. | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On July 28 2015 00:06 Rels wrote: Questions for scott: + Show Spoiler + On July 27 2015 22:16 Rels wrote: Two questions. Why is TT really weird ? rayn said "be aware of sulf and breshke" You answer "I just don't see Breshke being mafia with such an early vote and not moving it" But Sulfurus voted 8 minutes after Breshke and didn't move it. Why do you mention Breshke and not Sulfurus ? The tarot thing to being quite off on everything and not on the Bark wagon - he looks better than the other three though I did not know Sulf voted for him eight minutes later and did the same, just that Breshke was the second vote. There's a lot of D1 I have not read yet since joining in. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
On July 27 2015 21:13 Rels wrote: Yesterday I was in his shoes. I wrote a big post saying how he was mafia for a tons of reasons, and when I reread it before posting I realize most of it was nonsense. I'm pretty happy I did not post it. I mean, read his last posts. He got progressively angry and started using majs. Mafia are usually calmer than that. I too don't understand this sentence, but I decided to ignore him for the day and let him and I get more calm. We'll continue this tomorrow. IMO you should do the same. Maybe I won't be like that if we didn't have other solid leads. But I feel Sulfurus and Flexes are very suspicious, and TT and MD are worth talking about. I'm always worth talking about... On July 27 2015 23:43 NocturneMage wrote: Looking at the Tictock/Moosy relationship and Tictock's filter from this standpoint. Is the Moosy scumread a meta read? The way Moosy is going about it is he's saying "I'm mafia" etc, and just seemingly (outside the townreads) making himself look dumb at points, which I assume is trolling, I read part of the last newbie and Moosy also seemed self destructive purposely in that game. Tictock, if Moosy is dodging questions like you are saying, how do you know it's not the same self-destructive stuff he did last game? How are you sure he's not doing it out of spite (which to me would be in line with the overall way he's acting)? I don't and that's the problem. I know he is capable of playing this way as town, but whats to prevent MD from using the same tactic as mafia to dodge questions and stuff? Posts like this are a perfect example of why MD looks so scummy to me. On July 27 2015 23:41 MoosyDoosy wrote: Let's not forget I was the first one to mention Sulfurus ever once the game started. But then again, that was just me hard busing because i'm Mafia. So never mind. Carry on. -The bolded is true, but but it doesn't mean jack all. Never even bothered to push Sulf at all D1, then randomly votes N1. So he only really gets credit for mentioning that Sulf was in the game and that he's rolled mafia before. On July 24 2015 10:23 MoosyDoosy wrote: /facepalm. I just realized that Sulfurus was in this game and that his first and only post was /in. I'm tempted to lynch him because it's my third game with him as well and he's rolled Mafia Godfather the last two times. On July 26 2015 22:43 MoosyDoosy wrote: ##Vote Sulfurus He's probably Mafia Godfather tbh. - Then we get back to more "I'm mafia" talk. True he did this as town before, but he's only using it this game to dodge questions. Last game he was much more clearly using this tactic to try and be lynchbait but here it's only coming up when questions are asked of him or people push on him. I see no reason to believe this is not scum!MD trying to abuse something he did as town last game. So I feel just fine keeping my vote on him. Also do note, he didn't bother to share those reads until Night phase, during Day phase he did basically nothing and never even bothered to vote. Like nothing I read from MD D1 suggested to me he was at all interested in solving the game. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
I'm totally for him being a lynch target today. I've been saying pretty much all the same stuff as everyone making a case on him. For now I dont mind leaving my vote on MD (for reasons I stated in last post) even though Sulf is voting for him as well. Based on his Auto list MD was clearly Sulf's next target so him placing a vote on him is just following through what he said in that post and NAI. Having said that. @Sul Why don't you explain to us your reads in detail. Starting with why you think Moosy is the best lynch today. Also, at what point do you rethink your list? A D1 PoE list is very unlikely to be accurate. | ||
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Tictock
United States6051 Posts
Have fun in my filter if you want to make a case about me. | ||
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