EPTi only voted for him because i believe he is red and the self preservation is a nice bonus that I didnt even point out first (it was wave i believe?)
[I] TLLOLOTGDTM - Page 76
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
ComaDose
Canada10349 Posts
i only voted for him because i believe he is red and the self preservation is a nice bonus that I didnt even point out first (it was wave i believe?) | ||
|
Requizen
United States33802 Posts
1) None of them are scum. This is of a moderate likelyhood. 2) All of them are scum. This is statistically unlikely. 3) One or two of them are scum. This is statistically the likeliest. Of the options, I find that obviously #3 is the standing situation that we are dealing with, so that is the assumption that I am going to be working under in my post. Let us look at their actions on Day 1: Soniv spent most of the day doing nothing but moving the discussion along and asking for people's reads. He called Alzadar out, but relented when he posted and moved to MoonBear instead. Both were perfectly reasonable targets considering their posting was sparse and low content. This makes them safe for Scum to attack (if Alz is also scum, getting the free mislynch is easy) and reasonable for Town to attack (for game points). His vote on MB was early, and he didn't pressure it too hard, just dropping small notes about how he disliked MB's play. Again, this could go either way, but in retrospect feels like a very subtle scum play. ...which, if he's scum, feels like a very different play from his hard pressure on me today. However, that could be deflection pressure considering his noose is being fitted. Even though he was on MB's case, he wasn't as aggressive as he was towards me during the first half of this day. It's a hard read. Ghandi spent most of Day 1 being... Ghandi. I can't talk bad about this considering I was not playing to my full potential during that day either. He was a hard read for me, to the point that based on that first day alone he would be Town. His moves were not focused enough to be scum trying to do things. That said, considering his low involvement and his level of new-ness, he could very well just be a scum player not doing anything and letting the other scum do the work. This works well with my later assumptions, and I think the probability of Ghandi being Scum right now is very high. Worth noting is how investigations into Ghandi involve him posting his normal way, one liners and shitposting, but investigations into other people get him to post much more coherently. This could just be normal for him (as my posting is for me), but it could be a tell of some sort. Though I'd like to think Ghandi would be better at hiding it than that. Wave is still my highest Mafia read. This remains and unpopular opinion and I will concede to not pursue it until he is once again under the spotlight for other people. Many people during Day/Night 1 called him out for his play being manipulative, which he deflected by backing off. That does not change the fact that he started D1 with a very flamboyant post designed to gain the attention of the new players and lots of "teaching" posts that ended up swaying many opinions, mine included when he pointed me at LordT and fired. During Night 1, he was very upset about the MB pick and changed his stance about heavy influencing, which most people took as a natural progression. However, this post certainly got my attention on his trail again: On October 15 2014 04:56 WaveofShadow wrote: Eh. I think the only 'dangerous one if left alive' is probably me at this point. /master of manipulation This Flanderization of my viewpoint on him is a very well played dodging tool. Rather than arguing against it, he takes the claim of manipulation and turns it into a joke, creating a situation where anyone who pulls it against him again is no longer taken seriously. And that's a dangerous shield to have when the entire game is "How to Win Friends and Influence People 101". Still, this post is either masterful Scum play or Town confirmation: On October 12 2014 23:12 WaveofShadow wrote: lol fuck that, no offense Req but if tolkien flips red I want credit for drawing attention to it first  Any thoughts on my post people? If the LordT train had picked up steam and he was the Day 1 mislynch, it would have put Wave under a microscope. However, with that in mind, I'm leaning towards good Scum play. Scum!Wave would probably know that this particular bandwagon would not pick up steam, and he would have plenty of escapes if it did. If anyone could do that and get away with it, it would probably be the most experienced member. Still, of course, I could be wrong. I pursued LordT too hard and it shattered my confidence when he flipped green. There's no such thing as 100% knowledge in this game (much to my dismay), and I can always be swayed off of Wave if presented with the right situation. Now, the interaction between these three is important. Beginning the game, the first two posts out of the gate: On October 11 2014 09:05 jcarlsoniv wrote: waaaaanderful jeffery, what's up and why are you scum On October 11 2014 09:11 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Bad habit I guess :/ This seems like normal banter, especially given the relationship these two have garnered in the past. However, if we look at a situation where both Soniv and Ghandi are both scum, what does this post do? It separates them into their normal standing dynamic. Without getting too WIFOM, it sets them apart and creates a state in everyone's mind that Soniv and Ghandi are just being themselves. This is mirrored by Wave and Ghandi here: On October 11 2014 09:54 WaveofShadow wrote: ##Vote: GhandiEAGLE Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you our first scummer. Vote along with me for glory and for victory. On October 11 2014 09:58 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Are there a set amount of each role? Also fak u wavvy boy On October 11 2014 10:12 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Lynch Wavvy boy and join me in the glorious sunset ##Lynch: WaveofShadow Again, the two of them settling in to their normal dynamic. In both of these cases - Wave/Ghandi or Soniv/Ghandi - we can infer similar things. 1) If the Golem is Scum and Ghandi is Town, it is a play to get a train on a very easy target (because who doesn't like to hate on Ghandi), and also gets the ball rolling on a Townie right off the bat. 2) If the Golem is Town and Ghandi is Scum, it's normal interaction and Ghandi is just being himself as a defense mechanism. 3) If BOTH are Scum, it's a ruse to keep them separate in public eye. They also know that, just as it is easy to get a hate train on Ghandi, it's just as easy to put the suspicion onto someone else, using Ghandi's shitposting as a cover for him to "escape" public scrutiny. 4) If NEITHER are Scum, it's normal interaction, which was the point I've been talking about. I think the likelyhood of none of them being scum is very low. So our situations are: Soinv - Wave - Ghandi OR Soinv - Wave - Ghandi OR Soinv - Wave - Ghandi In a VERY unlikely situation, we may have Soinv - Wave - Ghandi But I think that is all but impossible at the moment and I will not consider it a realistic scenario at this time. This is my hunch, though it may not be the most airtight. Going off that hunch, I will stick to my vote on Soniv. If he flips GREEN, then it's assured (in my book) that both Wave and Ghandi are Scum. If he flips RED, then our scrutinization is between those two. Likely this would result in a Ghandi lynch since people seem to be more on that boat, though that could change Night 2/Day 3. While Wave is my higher feeling, I realize I'm not going to get anyone focused on him today, so pursuing that vote is moot. | ||
|
GhandiEAGLE
United States20754 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:29 ketchup wrote: Basically, I've asked you direct questions multiple times, and you haven't answered them for me. What does town gain from keeping you alive? You haven't answered this for me. It really doesn't gain anything in my perspective. Right now, I feel you are more of a liability than anyone else in the game. You are not clear about your real scum list. Before today, you didn't really mention soniv too much. Now, you are just jumping on the soniv bandwagon while pretending others are doing the same thing. Other people have actually had their own thoughts and opinions on the game. You give me nothing. You add nothing to the discussion. At one point ,you thought Wave was scummy, but I didn't see you trying to do anything about it then or even now. Basically, all you do is deflect. I literally am the only person going after Mordek right now. Wave did it briefly, but other than him and one other guy it's been something other people have somehow been completely ignoring. Additionally, defending myself is all I can do when Wave carries on against me for four or five pages straight. I mentioned before that I think it's either Wave or Soniv as #1 scum. I said that last night. I was leaning Soniv at the time but not enough that I'd count Wave out. After seeing Wave's play today I'm pretty confident he's town. So, following my OWN PATTERN that I was talking about a night ago, it's only natural that Soniv would be my conclusion. I've been holding strong to it, even when I voted Mordek I still clarified Soniv was my #1. I don't know why you're choosing to ignore all of these things. Additionally, look at what Soniv has done today after he harangued Req for awhile. Absolutely nothing but defense. I've been actually trying to step up and investigate, and I've found things as well. So don't go talking around like I haven't done anything but defend, that's bullshit, and in the end you also avoided my question. | ||
|
ketchup
14521 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:23 WaveofShadow wrote: Despite the fact that soniv is content with his output and helpfulness for the day and Jeff is still trying? If the mordek vote pressure is him trying, then what is the soniv vote on Req? That was soniv deflecting while jeff tries? I don't understand your separation. It's all the same thing. Either both are still trying or both are deflecting. Both have done similar things for their defense. Soniv's defense to me was at least showing he didn't care he was under pressure, while Jeff just bandwagons on Soniv. Soniv actually attempted to get another scummier read rather than just Jeff. You know what Ghandi has done? Nothing. He hasn't brought new information to town. | ||
|
GhandiEAGLE
United States20754 Posts
| ||
|
Requizen
United States33802 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:38 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Also Req, you say the only way I turn up green (in any actuality) is if both Wave and Soniv are red, but they've been the two counterbalances. While it's possible that they've been orchestrating this for awhile, I don't think I'm willing to buy that level of skill from the both of them. Also, if there's 3 scum, then you're calling a lot of shady people innocent. That's really poor reading if you're legitimately confident in those scenarios. That's why I said that the likelyhood of you all being scum is very, very low. But given the dynamic between the three of you from the start, I think the possibility of at least 2/3 of this little triad being scum is within acceptable limits. | ||
|
GhandiEAGLE
United States20754 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:35 ketchup wrote: If the mordek vote pressure is him trying, then what is the soniv vote on Req? That was soniv deflecting while jeff tries? I don't understand your separation. It's all the same thing. Either both are still trying or both are deflecting. Both have done similar things for their defense. Soniv's defense to me was at least showing he didn't care he was under pressure, while Jeff just bandwagons on Soniv. Soniv actually attempted to get another scummier read rather than just Jeff. You know what Ghandi has done? Nothing. He hasn't brought new information to town. Not caring while under pressure is a playstyle of the person, not a sign of innocence or guilt. That's ridiculous. I'm also not just bandwagonning on Soniv, and i think you're making a huge mistake by tunnelvisioning on that. What would YOU consider new information, if I haven't brought any? Do tell, Ketchup. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:35 ketchup wrote: If the mordek vote pressure is him trying, then what is the soniv vote on Req? That was soniv deflecting while jeff tries? I don't understand your separation. It's all the same thing. Either both are still trying or both are deflecting. Both have done similar things for their defense. Soniv's defense to me was at least showing he didn't care he was under pressure, while Jeff just bandwagons on Soniv. Soniv actually attempted to get another scummier read rather than just Jeff. You know what Ghandi has done? Nothing. He hasn't brought new information to town. He's still trying, while soniv has been pretty obstinate for most of the day, continually feeling the need to point out 'I did this already' when I asked for stuff from him and refusing to give answers to other things. Also haven't read Reqs monster vomit post yet but I'm getting ready to lol | ||
|
GhandiEAGLE
United States20754 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:40 Requizen wrote: That's why I said that the likelyhood of you all being scum is very, very low. But given the dynamic between the three of you from the start, I think the possibility of at least 2/3 of this little triad being scum is within acceptable limits. My point is that I disagree a great deal about the 2/3 likelihood. I think it's very likely one of us is scum, and I don't think it's Wave, which is why I say it's soniv (an opinion I have been expressing since nightfall, Ketchup). I just think it's shortsighted of you to believe that of all the lurkers and shitposter this game has had, only one of them outside the "triad" is guilty. | ||
|
Requizen
United States33802 Posts
| ||
|
GhandiEAGLE
United States20754 Posts
| ||
|
Requizen
United States33802 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:42 GhandiEAGLE wrote: My point is that I disagree a great deal about the 2/3 likelihood. I think it's very likely one of us is scum, and I don't think it's Wave, which is why I say it's soniv (an opinion I have been expressing since nightfall, Ketchup). I just think it's shortsighted of you to believe that of all the lurkers and shitposter this game has had, only one of them outside the "triad" is guilty. Aside from myself, there are 10 question marks left. There are a couple I have a low scum feeling on (Asmo, for example), so let's round it to 9. That makes the three of you 1/3 of the possible Scum population. Statistically, one of you is scum. 3/3 is very unlikely, but 2/3 is not unheard of given those odds. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Not as much lols to be had as I thought there might be (though I wonder at what point your continued refusal to see me as town eventually makes me lynch you). You did forget to consider the scenario where all three of us are town. Not sure why you don't talk about that at all. Also not sure why you're absolutely certain 2 of us are scum rather than one. Like...the analysis is decent if you had more to base it off of but there's so much speculation interspersed in there based on very little. I dunno what else to tell you in that regard man. I really think one of us is going to feel VERY silly at some point in this game, and I highly doubt that person is me. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
| ||
|
GhandiEAGLE
United States20754 Posts
I won't even feel silly if Soniv flips town. He' playing like he deserves to be lynched. I WILL feel silly if Ketchup is mafia though. I'd have been played DAMN hard. | ||
|
ketchup
14521 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:40 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Not caring while under pressure is a playstyle of the person, not a sign of innocence or guilt. That's ridiculous. I'm also not just bandwagonning on Soniv, and i think you're making a huge mistake by tunnelvisioning on that. What would YOU consider new information, if I haven't brought any? Do tell, Ketchup. New information is basically getting new information by doing something or bringing in a new interaction between the players. For Soniv there are two things: 1.) I might have over analyzed certain interactions in my Soniv argument, and he points it out fairly simply that it could be seen in that manner, but it wasn't it. I think in a game like this, I prefer simplicity over complications. So, I am okay with taking this defense straight up. 2.) Similarly, I think Req's posting after Soniv put pressure on him was genuine. I think he doesn't speak in that manner unless something was really bugging him. I disagree with Soniv that Req is scummy now because to fabricate that type of post is extremely difficult. So, I give points to Soniv for causing Req to make that type of post. I do apologize that Req thought he had to make that type of post though. Again, I know Soniv dislikes this, but it is actually in favor of both of them that Req made that post. Basically Scum Soniv has zero reasons to push Req that far that it proves Req's more innocent than not. For you, Jeff, I see nothing. Point them out to me, and I will reconsider my vote. | ||
|
Requizen
United States33802 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:47 WaveofShadow wrote: K, read it. Not as much lols to be had as I thought there might be (though I wonder at what point your continued refusal to see me as town eventually makes me lynch you). You did forget to consider the scenario where all three of us are town. Not sure why you don't talk about that at all. Also not sure why you're absolutely certain 2 of us are scum rather than one. Like...the analysis is decent if you had more to base it off of but there's so much speculation interspersed in there based on very little. I dunno what else to tell you in that regard man. I really think one of us is going to feel VERY silly at some point in this game, and I highly doubt that person is me. As I posted above, it's fairly statistical that 1/3 of the three of you is scum, given Cixah is IC and I would not put myself in the calculation. That's a numbers game, which is the closest thing to "hard evidence" that there is in this game (of course, with the prior knowledge the Statistics are not in any way a perfect tool, it's about as good or better than feelings). And given the interactions, I find it highly unlikely that only one of you is Scum, except in the situation that Ghandi is the only one out of you that is. That said, if we vote Ghandi and he flips RED, I don't feel that this clears you or Soniv. I just feel that the Soinv - Wave - Ghandi scenario is more likely than the Soinv - Wave - Ghandi or Soinv - Wave - Ghandi scenarios. | ||
|
Requizen
United States33802 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:49 WaveofShadow wrote: Like it sounds arrogant but I'm being completely truthful here, the fact that that you still can't see me as town req is concerning because it's either just deplorable townplay, or scumplay. Unfortunately I still think you fit into the first category. Everyone thinks that about themselves. If you seriously think that I'm going to write off anyone as pure town, you're crazy. Even Asmo, who is my highest Town read, is not free from suspicion. The fact that you take any suspicion towards yourself and immediately turn it around and say "Of course I'm squeaky clean, you're scum for not agreeing" does not make me trust you in the slightest. Every person in this thread should realize that they are not clean. Except Cixah. | ||
|
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On October 16 2014 06:51 ketchup wrote: New information is basically getting new information by doing something or bringing in a new interaction between the players. For Soniv there are two things: 1.) I might have over analyzed certain interactions in my Soniv argument, and he points it out fairly simply that it could be seen in that manner, but it wasn't it. I think in a game like this, I prefer simplicity over complications. So, I am okay with taking this defense straight up. 2.) Similarly, I think Req's posting after Soniv put pressure on him was genuine. I think he doesn't speak in that manner unless something was really bugging him. I disagree with Soniv that Req is scummy now because to fabricate that type of post is extremely difficult. So, I give points to Soniv for causing Req to make that type of post. I do apologize that Req thought he had to make that type of post though. Again, I know Soniv dislikes this, but it is actually in favor of both of them that Req made that post. Basically Scum Soniv has zero reasons to push Req that far that it proves Req's more innocent than not. For you, Jeff, I see nothing. Point them out to me, and I will reconsider my vote. Yes but with your second point you're assuming not only that scum soniv knew req would react that way (he would know that, I would too) but that pushing him to react would make him appear innocent to people rather than scummy. | ||
|
jcarlsoniv
United States27922 Posts
"But Soniv, why didn't you claim earlier?!" I was hoping that I would be able to talk you guys into putting your pitchforks down, and I was still pretty confident I could up until recently. As the Parity Cop, it is imperative that I make it through N2 without being roleblocked or killed. The longer I go without claiming, the longer scum goes without knowing what I am, and I was really hoping I would not have to claim. But for a town that bitched and moaned that Wave was trying to take control at the start of the game, you sure have been happy to let him lead your crosshairs. I crumbed my N1 target, and earlier today I crumbed my intended target tonight. (both parts bolded in the below posts) On October 14 2014 07:50 jcarlsoniv wrote: Y'know, I come out of Alzadar's filter actually thinking he's more townie. There were some posts I remember that I thought were surely scum leaning, that register to me differently this time around. Example: First time around, the first part of the post seemed odd and sheepish to me - reflecting what I said earlier about him saying things to satisfy the thread. But before this post, he put Wave at probably town, and so this reads more as someone who is collaborating with someone he kinda sorta might trust a little bit. Also, the second part exemplifies another quality of his general posting. He's been talking about setup stuff here and there (a fair amount of it earlier on), and usually it's not very productive or helpful and often distracts town. But rereading, he asks coherent questions that apply to the game flow, they show that he's invested in the goings on and is paying attention (despite backwards canadiansgiving). His filter comes off with more of a town vibe than I expected it to. It did remind me of two things as well. 1. The IC claim was at a really weird time. That's right, I'm lookin' at you 6ah. I really hope that confirmation comes through or D2 is going to be very boring lol. 2. I want to take a look at Ket Chup. He's someone who I haven't really noticed even though I know he's been posting quite a bit. He will probably be my next focus. the mistress On October 15 2014 07:20 jcarlsoniv wrote: at least someone is coming to their senses When I think someone is town, I say that they're town. When I think someone is scum, I say that they're scum. There's no use in me stating that I have null reads on all of these scummy as fuck lurkers, just as you do. I have already said that my town reads are you, ketchup, 6ah (obviously), Alaric, and probably Alz. You know my biggest current scum read right now is Req, and somewhat lesser than that is Coma. I thought you were on to something with Asmo until he made his case on me; now I'm not so sure. The rest are a bunch of god damn lurkers that I don't know how to get a read on. I'll probably put my eye to one tonight to try and glean any semblance of usefulness. This whole thread feels like town yelling at each other for the most part while a bunch of people are watching. There's my stupid fucking list post, all of my reads can be found in the thread, as I know for a fact that I've said them all. Speaking of scummy as fuck lurkers...Jeff, where the fuck are you Now, Wave, instead of tunneling me as hard as you did, you probably should have actually read my posts instead of sticking your fingers in your ears and going "LA LA LA YOU'RE SCUM" - you might have noticed what I am. But at this point, you're either retarded or malicious, and I'm honestly leaning towards the former. Either way, you can suck my dick. There are two hours left. Now get your god damn fucking votes off me. | ||
| ||
