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On May 21 2014 07:36 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 06:42 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 06:38 Blazinghand wrote:On May 21 2014 06:36 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 06:32 Blazinghand wrote: Look, I know you guys all hate RNG lynch but with 4 factions there's gonna be way more scum than usual, right? This means RNG has a much higher chance than usual of hitting scum. This is possibly the best time EVER for using RNg. Everyone lynch OdinofPergo, because statistically speaking he is scum. I was going to yell at you for the RNG nonsense but then I realized that you're right and even if you're scum, your plan has a decent chance of hitting other scum. HOWEVER, this is my first game in forever so fuck yo RNG, I'm gonna choose my vote the old fashioned way. Or Instead of the old fashioned homeopathic non-vaccinated way, you could use your vote in the scientifically correct way and vote OdinofPergo! Vaccines cause autism tho /s seriously though, the story you're going with is "I realized you're right, and even if you're scum, your plan will probably work and we'll probably hit scum... but I'm not gonna follow your plan, because of ill-defind reasons"? Actually yeah, I'm not even gonna argue with you. I play mafia for fun and us all picking an RNG then sitting back and seeing what happens doesn't seem fun to me. Plus I at least have enough faith in my own deduction and reasoning skills to think that I have just as good a chance of finding scum with analysis as RNG does.
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On May 21 2014 07:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:08 jampidampi wrote: Meapak earlier you were interested in 27ninjabunnies, did you gather anything from my conversation with her? If you had to bet on her alignment, what would you guess? ehhhh I understand the part about gut reads, I've had them myself and I know how frustrating it is to try and explain them. I give her (is ninja a her?) a pass for now because her posts seem very unguarded and often early game is when scum are most uptight. Unguarded? To me it seems that she is very defensive here:
On May 21 2014 06:52 27ninjabunnies wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 06:45 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 06:39 27ninjabunnies wrote:On May 21 2014 06:27 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 06:21 27ninjabunnies wrote:
--
It's also obvious who are going to jump out in the front and try and lead town one way or another. We definitely have a mafia or two in the first couple of pages.
You sound confident, enough that I think you have your eye on someone already. Care to share as to who it may be? I may have my eye on a few people. From my experience, there are two type of mafia people: the lurkers, and the ones who like to come out first day and take control of town. I'm focusing on the latter because they are the ones to likely talk more, you can easily find their slips (if any), and they are also more likely to last longer than the lurker mafia. Why are you avoiding my question? I asked you to name your suspicions, but instead you give an indefinite answear and then babble on about something that could reasonably be figured out from your earlier post. If I'm avoiding your question, it's because I have a pretty good damn reason as to why. But because you are being persistant, the ones I have my eye on are Steveling, WaveofShadow and Tehpoofter. But this doesn't necessarily mean they are scum. I rather read more of their play and interactions before I straight out call someone mafia. The majority of these people I haven't played with, and this is my second forum game. If I don't have logic behind my reads, where does that put me? As a freaking town more likely to get mislynched. So hold your horses, let me get my reads, and then we'll talk. She has "a pretty damn good reason" to avoid my question, yet she anwears it. Earlier she said that "we definitely have a mafia or two" but now they are not necessarily scum. Brining out the newbie card, defending accusations that don't exist. I would definitely not call this post unguarded. Based on this I wouldn't clear bunnies so easily, but now you're interesting. What makes you think she was "unguarded" in this post?
+ Show Spoiler +For the annoyed thing, if she was slightly pissed at me, I would understand this kind of backlash.
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On May 21 2014 07:34 Steveling wrote:100% what I was expecting. Just like last game his throwing his mafia weight against mine, knowing that people will follow him obviously.
this should be a fun fight. So what is your read on HF that he is mafia? Can you share it with the class? because the start of this game and the start of last game are completely different in terms of his play. Use quotes and shit. If he is 100% lock mafia that shouldn't be hard cause he clearly left behind a paper trail right?
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On May 21 2014 07:38 Blazinghand wrote: So Marv, you gotta admit, these whole steveling/holyflare thing is pretty silly and not worth your attention. What do you think about the possibility of an rng lynch in this setup? Could be good, yes?
I actually laughed out loud at this post. GJ BH
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 21 2014 06:17 27ninjabunnies wrote: I'd lynch HF in a heartbeat if he aligned with mafia.
On May 21 2014 06:23 27ninjabunnies wrote: Oh I'd lynch tamburini in a heartbeat regardless of his alignment.
On May 21 2014 07:23 27ninjabunnies wrote: I'd lynch him in a heartbeat.
On May 21 2014 07:28 WaveofShadow wrote: Sorry HF you've broken my heart too many times.
On May 21 2014 07:33 Xatalos wrote: Why this change of heart?
Chalis (ハート Heart) is an antagonist in Golden Sun: Dark Dawn. Together with Blados, she is one of the commanders of a secretive military nation named Tuaparang.
All three are bad guys taunting us in the thread. I rest my case.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On May 21 2014 07:39 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:38 Blazinghand wrote: So Marv, you gotta admit, these whole steveling/holyflare thing is pretty silly and not worth your attention. What do you think about the possibility of an rng lynch in this setup? Could be good, yes? As you're probably well aware, I've never RNGed, never supported RNG, and never will. Draw your own conclusions :p
I know you disagree with me philosophically about the usefulness of RNG, I just figured maybe in a massively multifactional setup you might find it alluring. Well, next time then!
On May 21 2014 07:39 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:36 Blazinghand wrote:On May 21 2014 06:42 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 06:38 Blazinghand wrote:On May 21 2014 06:36 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 06:32 Blazinghand wrote: Look, I know you guys all hate RNG lynch but with 4 factions there's gonna be way more scum than usual, right? This means RNG has a much higher chance than usual of hitting scum. This is possibly the best time EVER for using RNg. Everyone lynch OdinofPergo, because statistically speaking he is scum. I was going to yell at you for the RNG nonsense but then I realized that you're right and even if you're scum, your plan has a decent chance of hitting other scum. HOWEVER, this is my first game in forever so fuck yo RNG, I'm gonna choose my vote the old fashioned way. Or Instead of the old fashioned homeopathic non-vaccinated way, you could use your vote in the scientifically correct way and vote OdinofPergo! Vaccines cause autism tho /s seriously though, the story you're going with is "I realized you're right, and even if you're scum, your plan will probably work and we'll probably hit scum... but I'm not gonna follow your plan, because of ill-defind reasons"? Actually yeah, I'm not even gonna argue with you. I play mafia for fun and us all picking an RNG then sitting back and seeing what happens doesn't seem fun to me. Plus I at least have enough faith in my own deduction and reasoning skills to think that I have just as good a chance of finding scum with analysis as RNG does.
Ok, so that's a reason. I will note though that historically, TL towns tend not to statistically significantly outperform RNG on D1. I'm not proposing RNG for no reason; I think lynching OdinofPergo is our best chance today. If nothing else, I guarantee that pulling this off will have two results
1) it will be legendary 2) it will cause a massive shitstorm because everyone hates RNG. this shitstorm will give us lots of things to base reads off of for D2
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On May 21 2014 07:37 geript wrote: So far: Marv-- has done nothing for my peepee. Usually as town he either makes it hard because he's obviously town or I think he's obviously mafia. Considering a shot. His push on Xat is pretty awful to, like there's little reason to expect Xat to flip scum on that basis.
Bunnies--I have a decent read on her in video. She's not done anything that makes me think she's town. She's also refusing to try to correctly read Banks as anything. That's really weird and her last post was awful.
Austin--he has yet to intercede to ABBA on behalf of my shot. That's pretty clearly mafia aligned. I'm very tempted to shoot him but he promised me cuddles and to carry me over the finish line.
Kush--probably town unfortunately.
Koshi--possibly town but I expected a more fun/playful response to my "are you naked" question. That's odd to me.
Wave--I'm soul reading my wubbybumpkins town.
Steveling--maybe town. Idk I think he's decentish as scum but he doesn't really strike me as the active chipper I want to do stuff type.
HF--hasn't commented on how he's the best ever and that we should policy lynch me before I get to shoot. Like that's pretty odd if he's town I would've expected some actual dickwaging in this trolling phase.
BH-- nothing he's done makes me think he's a good player. I thought he was awful last game and he was mafia. Same vibes here. He just looks like he's trash to be disposed of.
So I'm probably shooting within my scum pool tonight if you all don't sheep me. I'd much rather get info from a good lynch first though.
I want to point out: video mafia and forum mafia are two different aspects of mafia. Two: Just because I can read Banks well in video mafia, does not mean it transfers to forum. Also, he hasn't spoken too much for me to have a great read on him.
But some things I noticed: his vote on tamburini and his trying to get me to vote with him. These are reasons that I used when I told Jamp that he was one of the ones I was watching for as him being mafia from the first couple of pages.
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
On May 21 2014 07:36 marvellosity wrote:Xatalos, I really have no idea, nor do I care, because I don't particularly strive to be consistent from game to game. Honestly the fact that you're beating away at this makes you look kinda better though, so maybe I'll unvote you if I'm feeling nice You do realise, though, that Steve's semi-ridiculous behaviour makes it less likely he's mafia though, yes? (or traditional mafia. I'm just gonna say town for town and mafia for all the other factions until something tells me otherwise)
On May 21 2014 07:20 Holyflare wrote: if you're gonna play like last game i will actually policy lynch you and i honestly don't care
despite me being scum in the game he was talking about we literally only won because he was doing what he was doing as town and was an easy mislynch so i'm just going to get rid of him until he learns
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+ Show Spoiler +On May 21 2014 07:42 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 06:17 27ninjabunnies wrote: I'd lynch HF in a heartbeat if he aligned with mafia. Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 06:23 27ninjabunnies wrote: Oh I'd lynch tamburini in a heartbeat regardless of his alignment. Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:28 WaveofShadow wrote: Sorry HF you've broken my heart too many times. Chalis (ハート Heart) is an antagonist in Golden Sun: Dark Dawn. Together with Blados, she is one of the commanders of a secretive military nation named Tuaparang. All three are bad guys taunting us in the thread. I rest my case.
LOL
##unvoted koshi btw
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I don't know what you guys are saying, I'm sheeping the fuck out of kitaman, this is so fun. xDD
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On May 21 2014 07:43 27ninjabunnies wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:37 geript wrote: So far: Marv-- has done nothing for my peepee. Usually as town he either makes it hard because he's obviously town or I think he's obviously mafia. Considering a shot. His push on Xat is pretty awful to, like there's little reason to expect Xat to flip scum on that basis.
Bunnies--I have a decent read on her in video. She's not done anything that makes me think she's town. She's also refusing to try to correctly read Banks as anything. That's really weird and her last post was awful.
Austin--he has yet to intercede to ABBA on behalf of my shot. That's pretty clearly mafia aligned. I'm very tempted to shoot him but he promised me cuddles and to carry me over the finish line.
Kush--probably town unfortunately.
Koshi--possibly town but I expected a more fun/playful response to my "are you naked" question. That's odd to me.
Wave--I'm soul reading my wubbybumpkins town.
Steveling--maybe town. Idk I think he's decentish as scum but he doesn't really strike me as the active chipper I want to do stuff type.
HF--hasn't commented on how he's the best ever and that we should policy lynch me before I get to shoot. Like that's pretty odd if he's town I would've expected some actual dickwaging in this trolling phase.
BH-- nothing he's done makes me think he's a good player. I thought he was awful last game and he was mafia. Same vibes here. He just looks like he's trash to be disposed of.
So I'm probably shooting within my scum pool tonight if you all don't sheep me. I'd much rather get info from a good lynch first though. I want to point out: video mafia and forum mafia are two different aspects of mafia. Two: Just because I can read Banks well in video mafia, does not mean it transfers to forum. Also, he hasn't spoken too much for me to have a great read on him. But some things I noticed: his vote on tamburini and his trying to get me to vote with him. These are reasons that I used when I told Jamp that he was one of the ones I was watching for as him being mafia from the first couple of pages.
so, 27nb, what are your thoughts on the possibility of an RNG lynch on OdinofPergo today? You haven't weighed in on my RNG posts.
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On May 21 2014 07:40 jampidampi wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 07:08 jampidampi wrote: Meapak earlier you were interested in 27ninjabunnies, did you gather anything from my conversation with her? If you had to bet on her alignment, what would you guess? ehhhh I understand the part about gut reads, I've had them myself and I know how frustrating it is to try and explain them. I give her (is ninja a her?) a pass for now because her posts seem very unguarded and often early game is when scum are most uptight. Unguarded? To me it seems that she is very defensive here: Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 06:52 27ninjabunnies wrote:On May 21 2014 06:45 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 06:39 27ninjabunnies wrote:On May 21 2014 06:27 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 06:21 27ninjabunnies wrote:
--
It's also obvious who are going to jump out in the front and try and lead town one way or another. We definitely have a mafia or two in the first couple of pages.
You sound confident, enough that I think you have your eye on someone already. Care to share as to who it may be? I may have my eye on a few people. From my experience, there are two type of mafia people: the lurkers, and the ones who like to come out first day and take control of town. I'm focusing on the latter because they are the ones to likely talk more, you can easily find their slips (if any), and they are also more likely to last longer than the lurker mafia. Why are you avoiding my question? I asked you to name your suspicions, but instead you give an indefinite answear and then babble on about something that could reasonably be figured out from your earlier post. If I'm avoiding your question, it's because I have a pretty good damn reason as to why. But because you are being persistant, the ones I have my eye on are Steveling, WaveofShadow and Tehpoofter. But this doesn't necessarily mean they are scum. I rather read more of their play and interactions before I straight out call someone mafia. The majority of these people I haven't played with, and this is my second forum game. If I don't have logic behind my reads, where does that put me? As a freaking town more likely to get mislynched. So hold your horses, let me get my reads, and then we'll talk. She has "a pretty damn good reason" to avoid my question, yet she anwears it. Earlier she said that "we definitely have a mafia or two" but now they are not necessarily scum. Brining out the newbie card, defending accusations that don't exist. I would definitely not call this post unguarded. Based on this I wouldn't clear bunnies so easily, but now you're interesting. What makes you think she was "unguarded" in this post? + Show Spoiler +For the annoyed thing, if she was slightly pissed at me, I would understand this kind of backlash. I agree that she made a terrible post there, my "unguarded" comment did not specifically relate to any one post in particular and more to her style of posting over all. My personal concern with her is actually her sudden clearing of me after I lightly defended her. It's waaaay too early in the game to say you won't lynch someone, even if you qualify it with D1.
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On May 21 2014 07:43 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:36 marvellosity wrote:Xatalos, I really have no idea, nor do I care, because I don't particularly strive to be consistent from game to game. Honestly the fact that you're beating away at this makes you look kinda better though, so maybe I'll unvote you if I'm feeling nice On May 21 2014 07:32 Holyflare wrote: yes please do
##unvote ##vote steveling
You do realise, though, that Steve's semi-ridiculous behaviour makes it less likely he's mafia though, yes? (or traditional mafia. I'm just gonna say town for town and mafia for all the other factions until something tells me otherwise) Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:20 Holyflare wrote: if you're gonna play like last game i will actually policy lynch you and i honestly don't care despite me being scum in the game he was talking about we literally only won because he was doing what he was doing as town and was an easy mislynch so i'm just going to get rid of him until he learns
Yes you literally only won because of my bad play as town right? Not because NO ONE, LITERALLY NO ONE VOTED FOR A SCUM IN ALL 3 DAYS.
Oh wait, except me.
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On May 21 2014 07:33 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 06:40 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 06:32 Blazinghand wrote: Look, I know you guys all hate RNG lynch but with 4 factions there's gonna be way more scum than usual, right? This means RNG has a much higher chance than usual of hitting scum. This is possibly the best time EVER for using RNg. Everyone lynch OdinofPergo, because statistically speaking he is scum. Why does more factions = more scum? Wouldn't scum numbers stay the same to keep the ratio of scum/all players balanced? As a member of the balance team, I can assure you that a multifactional game supports more scum than a non-multifactional game. There are a number of reasons for this. Part of it is that, say, in a 2-scum-faction game, half of the scum will push on each other for reasons unrelated to bussing, because they can't distinguish between "scum on the other scum team" and "town". They'll even shoot into each other sometimes. Town loses the ability to make some associative tells, but the amount of crosstalk from scum accidentally pushing or shooting each other makes up for it. 2+2 scum with each group having 1 kp will never be as effective as 4 scum with 2 kp working together at killing town. That being said, you never mentioned any real objection to the concept of RNG, you just questioned my estimate of scum in this game. I can only assume you didn't object to actual RNG because you think it would be fine if more factions = more scum. So, now that I've shown that more factions = more scum, you'll vote odin, yes? I would need some kind of hard evindence that there are multiple scum factions in this game to RNG lynch, since those additional factions could be third parties and that wouldn't necessarily increase the scum numbers.
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United Kingdom30774 Posts
On May 21 2014 07:45 Steveling wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:43 Holyflare wrote:On May 21 2014 07:36 marvellosity wrote:Xatalos, I really have no idea, nor do I care, because I don't particularly strive to be consistent from game to game. Honestly the fact that you're beating away at this makes you look kinda better though, so maybe I'll unvote you if I'm feeling nice On May 21 2014 07:32 Holyflare wrote: yes please do
##unvote ##vote steveling
You do realise, though, that Steve's semi-ridiculous behaviour makes it less likely he's mafia though, yes? (or traditional mafia. I'm just gonna say town for town and mafia for all the other factions until something tells me otherwise) On May 21 2014 07:20 Holyflare wrote: if you're gonna play like last game i will actually policy lynch you and i honestly don't care despite me being scum in the game he was talking about we literally only won because he was doing what he was doing as town and was an easy mislynch so i'm just going to get rid of him until he learns Yes you literally only won because of my bad play as town right? Not because NO ONE, LITERALLY NO ONE VOTED FOR A SCUM IN ALL 3 DAYS. Oh wait, except me.
^^^ case in point
anyway bh if you take out newbie games towns recently have a 40%+ chance of finding mafia day 1 by lynching and so it's obv far better not to rng
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On May 21 2014 07:43 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:39 marvellosity wrote:On May 21 2014 07:38 Blazinghand wrote: So Marv, you gotta admit, these whole steveling/holyflare thing is pretty silly and not worth your attention. What do you think about the possibility of an rng lynch in this setup? Could be good, yes? As you're probably well aware, I've never RNGed, never supported RNG, and never will. Draw your own conclusions :p I know you disagree with me philosophically about the usefulness of RNG, I just figured maybe in a massively multifactional setup you might find it alluring. Well, next time then! Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:39 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 07:36 Blazinghand wrote:On May 21 2014 06:42 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 06:38 Blazinghand wrote:On May 21 2014 06:36 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 06:32 Blazinghand wrote: Look, I know you guys all hate RNG lynch but with 4 factions there's gonna be way more scum than usual, right? This means RNG has a much higher chance than usual of hitting scum. This is possibly the best time EVER for using RNg. Everyone lynch OdinofPergo, because statistically speaking he is scum. I was going to yell at you for the RNG nonsense but then I realized that you're right and even if you're scum, your plan has a decent chance of hitting other scum. HOWEVER, this is my first game in forever so fuck yo RNG, I'm gonna choose my vote the old fashioned way. Or Instead of the old fashioned homeopathic non-vaccinated way, you could use your vote in the scientifically correct way and vote OdinofPergo! Vaccines cause autism tho /s seriously though, the story you're going with is "I realized you're right, and even if you're scum, your plan will probably work and we'll probably hit scum... but I'm not gonna follow your plan, because of ill-defind reasons"? Actually yeah, I'm not even gonna argue with you. I play mafia for fun and us all picking an RNG then sitting back and seeing what happens doesn't seem fun to me. Plus I at least have enough faith in my own deduction and reasoning skills to think that I have just as good a chance of finding scum with analysis as RNG does. Ok, so that's a reason. I will note though that historically, TL towns tend not to statistically significantly outperform RNG on D1. I'm not proposing RNG for no reason; I think lynching OdinofPergo is our best chance today. If nothing else, I guarantee that pulling this off will have two results 1) it will be legendary 2 ) it will cause a massive shitstorm because everyone hates RNG. this shitstorm will give us lots of things to base reads off of for D2
What reads do you hope to garner? Like based upon the lynch of Odin? Like who defends/pushes him? Why not just do that on someone who actually does something scummy. I think that I'd rather lose to being bad that win to RNG... I'm not playing a slot machine I'm playing mafia. RNG is bad and you should feel bad.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On May 21 2014 07:45 jampidampi wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:33 Blazinghand wrote:On May 21 2014 06:40 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 06:32 Blazinghand wrote: Look, I know you guys all hate RNG lynch but with 4 factions there's gonna be way more scum than usual, right? This means RNG has a much higher chance than usual of hitting scum. This is possibly the best time EVER for using RNg. Everyone lynch OdinofPergo, because statistically speaking he is scum. Why does more factions = more scum? Wouldn't scum numbers stay the same to keep the ratio of scum/all players balanced? As a member of the balance team, I can assure you that a multifactional game supports more scum than a non-multifactional game. There are a number of reasons for this. Part of it is that, say, in a 2-scum-faction game, half of the scum will push on each other for reasons unrelated to bussing, because they can't distinguish between "scum on the other scum team" and "town". They'll even shoot into each other sometimes. Town loses the ability to make some associative tells, but the amount of crosstalk from scum accidentally pushing or shooting each other makes up for it. 2+2 scum with each group having 1 kp will never be as effective as 4 scum with 2 kp working together at killing town. That being said, you never mentioned any real objection to the concept of RNG, you just questioned my estimate of scum in this game. I can only assume you didn't object to actual RNG because you think it would be fine if more factions = more scum. So, now that I've shown that more factions = more scum, you'll vote odin, yes? I would need some kind of hard evindence that there are multiple scum factions in this game to RNG lynch, since those additional factions could be third parties and that wouldn't necessarily increase the scum numbers.
The definition of factions pretty much means they have to be scum aligned. Otherwise we'd just call them "blues". Even if they were like 3p factions or whatever, we'd still want them dead, right?
Also nice goalpost moving.
1. "do more factions = more scum? wouldn't scum numbers stay the same to keep the ratio... balanced?" as a question implies that you, like me, expected all or most of the factions to be scum factions.
2. but then "additional factions could be third parties..." later on is what you say after I show solve #1.
So, what's the deal? Why the resistance on the odinofpergo lynch???
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