EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VII - Page 12
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era
United States268 Posts
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Bocki
Germany98 Posts
On April 06 2012 04:54 BlueyD wrote: ...and I'm still scumhunting actively... ...A reminder to others that Gossemerr is not my only suspicion... Firstly, you are not really scumhunting, all you do is suspect Gossemeer. Yes, you noticed Therapist and iamallinson in 4 lines, but the majority of posts is against Gossemeer. Is can not really be called scumhunting. On April 06 2012 14:49 BlueyD wrote: About the night hit: They picked the guy who stood back but offered a bit of content here and there, and said the most stuff about blues and roleclaiming… That fits the blue profile very well, actually. Basically, it seems to me they went with their strongest blue read and it worked. It’s funny that era sees this, identifies it… and then goes “nahhhh, that can’t be it”, when to me that seems to be exactly it. ---------- On era: For that post about the scumhit, era went through imallinson’s filter in a whole 15 minutes and brought out all the important parts before dismissing his own findings. It’s hard for me to believe that he 1. has the skill to see that by himself and bring it all out in a relatively short time, yet 2. is so bad that he dismissed it all when he was right on the spot. That's a very small window of skill... Which makes me think he might have known what to look for ahead of time. In general, it’s as Nova says: This guy is obviously paying attention to the game (rules, filters, thread), but then he turns around with mostly one-liners, and he’s using so much WIFOM/bad logic it’s almost a parody. He’s a very tempting lynch indeed. ---------- On the lurker side, my pick for “needs to step it up” at this moment is our friend Bocki, whose filter is devoid of any analysis made by himself, and who no one seems to be talking about so I gotta bring him up. I see 3 things in there: -Proposes a mathematical post-counting method for determining who the biggest lurker is -Votes for Lyter, like everyone else -Some generic stuff about roleclaiming - Listens to Goss about me, then says “yeah” There’s a lot less spam than era there, but there isn’t more content. I'm not sure there's any content, really, and yet no one pays attention to him and he flies right under the radar. After noticing iamallinson's indecision to vote for either lyter or gosse, you now say that it was obvious blue play. How come you didnt say that before? Instead you now blame era for reading it before and then dismissing it. Thats almost as if you slipped a little disappointment that era did not come through with his opinion that iamallinson was blue. But who else but scum wants to know who is blue? On my personal accusation: Yes, I did not post very much on Day1, since its impossible to really read something on D1. I took on the mathematical reasoning because it was at least an indicator. Sure, it did not go well since that killed a townie, but since we had to vote, I would rather use a mathematical approach than something like jokes. Because then, you would have been higher on the list. Well, maybe that would have been the better choice... Gossemeers case against you was good, so I didnt have much else to say but "yes, that is a good case." Now, since you pratically pushed me for it, I had to write my own analysis of your behaviour. But thats okay, since it is true that I did not make a case until now. ------------ As a summary: I think BlueyD is trying to make gossemeer look bad, constantly attacking him. Why, I cant say, maybe he's townie and read something in gosses posts that I didnt see, or he is scum and wants us to lynch gosse so he can choose another target for a nightly kill. Maybe it's because gosse has made some good analysis about BlueyD and he wants to get rid of him. If it's about that, I think his next "victims" will be lazin or nova. I hope that was good enough | ||
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Bocki
Germany98 Posts
On April 06 2012 13:57 LazinCajun wrote: ...I propose that we drop it the implications of him dying and move on to more substantial matters... ...Unless somebody has some amazing read to gain from the mafia hitting imallinson (I doubt it), it doesn't make any sense to me to dwell on these issues, and I think any more discussion of such triviality indicates a lack of desire to move forward, ergo indicates scuminess. A blue gets whacked and you do not want to see why? Or talk about why? And that after he attacked you and died instantly after this? That sounds a bit weird to me. I dont know what to think of it now, really, but ... its weird... | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
Firstly, you are not really scumhunting, all you do is suspect Gossemeer. Yes, you noticed Therapist and iamallinson in 4 lines, but the majority of posts is against Gossemeer. Is can not really be called scumhunting. Why not? Am I supposed to spare my time equally among everyone, even those I find less suspicious? I wanted some info on why Goss was switching metagame, so I had to spend some time on him, and no one else was talking so it’s not like I could analyse anyone else’s stuff. For instance, you had to be called out before you even posted an analysis of your own. After noticing iamallinson's indecision to vote for either lyter or gosse, you now say that it was obvious blue play. How come you didnt say that before? Instead you now blame era for reading it before and then dismissing it. Thats almost as if you slipped a little disappointment that era did not come through with his opinion that iamallinson was blue. But who else but scum wants to know who is blue? Why didn’t I say that before when? I said it in my FIRST POST AFTER THE HIT. Am I supposed to mention he looks blue before he gets hit? I’m not gonna call out a blue before he gets killed, that would be the scummiest thing to do. And to be honest, I also didn’t notice he looked the bluest of all of us before the lynch, I saw it after the fact while looking at the filters and era’s post. Why didn’t I see it before? Because I was looking for reds, not for blues. I also never said he looked obviously blue (I could only see it myself after the fact), I said I could see how he would be the mafia’s strongest blue read (aka bluer than the others; they were probably actively looking for a blue), and that’s likely why they lynched him. On my personal accusation: Yes, I did not post very much on Day1, since its impossible to really read something on D1. I took on the mathematical reasoning because it was at least an indicator. Sure, it did not go well since that killed a townie, but since we had to vote, I would rather use a mathematical approach than something like jokes. Because then, you would have been higher on the list. Well, maybe that would have been the better choice... Gossemeers case against you was good, so I didnt have much else to say but "yes, that is a good case." Now, since you pratically pushed me for it, I had to write my own analysis of your behaviour. But thats okay, since it is true that I did not make a case until now. 1. The main reason it was difficult to read much on day 1 is that people like you weren’t posting. You’ve got your causality backwards. 2. I didn’t “practically” push you for it, I downright pushed you for it. And you sound like you wouldn’t have written a case if I hadn’t pressured you. You didn't do it to help town, you did it because you 'had to'? That’s scummy. The rest of this is you trying to justify not posting much/posting fluff. ------------ As a summary: I think BlueyD is trying to make gossemeer look bad, constantly attacking him. Why, I cant say, maybe he's townie and read something in gosses posts that I didnt see, or he is scum and wants us to lynch gosse so he can choose another target for a nightly kill. Maybe it's because gosse has made some good analysis about BlueyD and he wants to get rid of him. If it's about that, I think his next "victims" will be lazin or nova. That’s shoddy logic again, I attacked him before he attacked me; He even defended my jokes as obvious jokes in his early posts, before changing his mind on that only after I attacked him. I could easily have backed off earlier than I did and looked less suspicious if I had wanted to, especially since I wasn’t getting much of a following there, but there’s info I wanted, so I had to push him to get it. ---------- What annoys me most about Bocki's post here: Bocki’s is not apologetic about his inactivity at all! Instead, he seems a bit angry that I’m bringing him out of the shadows, as if he wants to stay there. | ||
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Therapist.
United States207 Posts
4. Gossemerr Gossemerr started out not wanting to lynch a lurker. But as the inactivity of the day went on, he felt a need to get some activity going, so he voted for a lurker. I now see this not as a contradiction, but just as annoyance that no one was posting anything. This has been a rather lurky bunch, so I don't blame him. It is confusing however that he didn't change his vote once Lyter replied, but he claims being unavailable. I agree with his decision to apply some pressure... and it is even more understandable that he didn't change his vote since now that I remember it would have made him get voted off. I am leaning towards Townie for Gossemerr. --------- 5. BlueyD BlueyD is really going after Gossemerr for no particular reason. I personally voted Gossemerr day one because of the mild contradiction he made and Lyter's defense of himself. It was the only other place I could really go. But then after that and rethinking about it, Gossemerr made a lot more sense to me and there was no major contradiction in his decision making. BlueyD has no such opinion and immediately sets his sights on Gossemerr, writing out an attack against him. I'm not sure why this attack is necessary, because there was really no scum behavior from Gossemerr. You seem awfully focused on someone who took the lead in getting information for us. You poke in at me for changing my vote on day one. Doesn't really make sense for you to be suspicious of me for it, but I guess that's the nature of the game. I feel like your posts are over accusatory at this point with very little information to go by. This makes me suspicious of you. ------------ 6.LazinCajun I can't get too much of a read on LazinCajun because he came late to the game and has a very short filter. At the same time, he's mostly staying out of things. He's making some posts here and there replying to things, but none of them have any real content. He's basically just saying over and over again that he has no opinion. I would really like to hear what he has to say based on looking through peoples' filters. As such, I can just say that I think he is suspiciously laying low. ------ 7. Era Era posts very little content for awhile, and then goes into what is in my opinion a shoddy argument against BlueyD. I think that you can make an argument against BlueyD, but I don't think his post really has anything meaningful to say. I agree that it's strange to be joking and such like he is, but I dont' see why he shouldn't. People can have whatever flavor they want really and we can't really get a read from the fact that he's having a little fun with his posts. Most of the argument has to do with his flavor, but he also claims a contradiction when BlueyD talks about threatening based on meta being difficult in a newbie game. It makes sense because there's either 1. No history to work with, or 2. Not enough experience to recognize behaviors as they apply to the game. I don't think era is necessarily scummy, but his posts really don't seem to have too much meaning outside of some little tidbits here and there. -------- 8. Bocki He was practically completely silent day one, letting people find their own way to a green and then jumping on the bandwagon as it came up. Everything is "okay, I agree" for whatever case people are making up until it's against him. If he continues to mostly just jump on bandwagons, I will get more suspicious. As of right now, I am in the middle on Bocky. ------------- 9. Nova_Terra By far the most active poster who seems to spend a bit too much time critisizing the style of responses rather than providing meaningful analysis of the responses. At the same time, he does provide lots of analysis and keeps the conversation going quite effectively. I would be sad to see him lynched purely on the basis that he keeps things moving. Plus, I don't think his efforts to draw attention to himself and expose so many other people are very scummy. I think Nova is pretty town at this point. | ||
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era
United States268 Posts
BlueyD says that Gossemerr, I'm being attacked for making jokes now, really? I'll tell you, there's two reasons I'm making jokes. First... it's fun! Second... I wanted to see who jumped on them to try to make a case look better than it is. Grats, you did. I don't think that his jokes is just flavor. He makes jokes because he wants people to accuse him? Why would he want this? Its a total waste of time and makes no sense if hes a townie. If he is scum it allows him to discredit accusations and gain town favor while doing it. Ill admit its a risky strategy for a mafia since hes putting attention on him. I still find him suspicious. | ||
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era
United States268 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
When you say that Lazin has a very short filter, i find that funny as your filter is actually shorter, and had little content as well. You've also only really agreed with people, jumped on bandwagons, defended yourself for jumping on said bandwagons, responded etc. not much content has been driven by you, aside from this post here, which is actually pretty decent. After doing something similar last game as scum, i was inclined to note that your type of analysis chosen was a bit scummy as it isnt actually posting pieces of filter and you could easily say things about fellow mafia without having to back them up etc. However you do have some pretty good points in there, and that changes my perception of it slightly. Therapist, could you do a filter analysis of a player? It could help me determine my thoughts on you so far, a lot. when you say that i spend a bit too much time criticizing the style of responses do you mean like how i keep bringing up how era keeps posting WIFOM and 1 liners and how certain defenses have been bad? I may have gone a little overboard, but i definitely feel that those things should be noted as being scummy, and it especially bothers me when they seem ignored by the very players i direct them at. so i keep bringing it up. I will be voting tomorrow morning depending on any developments if they happen, and will be back later in the day to *possibly* change it. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
On April 07 2012 00:14 era wrote: EBWOP: BlueyD you seem to know the profile of a blue and how to read for them? Maybe you already knew he was a blue before he got killed? WAIT before i go i just noticed this gem. i find this funny, it really looks to me that era is trying very very hard to make blueyd seem suspicious. just look. I'm not sure what is worse, the constant WIFOM, the fact that blues are generally classified as holding back to avoid drawing attention to themselves, or my personal favorite, that you cant know who a blue if even if you are mafia(you have just as good a shot at guessing if you are town) Era seems to be trying sooo hard to get blueyd lynched. even if it doesnt quite make sense and is entirely WIFOM. At this point, if era is scum, blueyD isnt, at least in my mind. tomorrow i'm going to see if that makes sense the other way around. | ||
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era
United States268 Posts
On April 07 2012 09:21 Nova_Terra wrote: WAIT before i go i just noticed this gem. i find this funny, it really looks to me that era is trying very very hard to make blueyd seem suspicious. just look. I'm not sure what is worse, the constant WIFOM, the fact that blues are generally classified as holding back to avoid drawing attention to themselves, or my personal favorite, that you cant know who a blue if even if you are mafia(you have just as good a shot at guessing if you are town) Era seems to be trying sooo hard to get blueyd lynched. even if it doesnt quite make sense and is entirely WIFOM. At this point, if era is scum, blueyD isnt, at least in my mind. tomorrow i'm going to see if that makes sense the other way around. Of course I am trying to Lynch someone that I think is mafia.. Its my job. | ||
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Bocki
Germany98 Posts
BlueyD: As you can read from my case, I do not have much on you that I can read, thats why I didnt want to do my case right now, but I felt pushed, thats why I did it now. I wanted to find out more about you, but I didnt want your accusations be left in the room. When I notice something else about you, I will of course write it. I just wanted to assemble some more info. You defended that, well done. You attacked gosse, I supported him, now you go after me. Thats not "making a good case", thats panic. Nova: I dont think that I am the lurkiest, I think Lazin is. Therapist: I wasnt completely silent on day1 and I didnt just let the town find a green. I proposed the mathematical solution, since it was better than just read into the 4/5 posts that each player wrote. It endet in a green getting killed, but that odd was 7:2, so I dont think it was completely unreasonable. And again BlueyD: You should really consider to make a defense post. Not specially against me but against all the others as well. Therapist, gosse and era listed you as suspicious. If you are town, I'd hate to lynch you because then I would make myself really suspicious, but my feeling is still that you are mafia. | ||
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
At first I was a little weary of posting this, since it may tip the mafia off about avoiding suspicious voting patterns. I realized that in order to avoid those suspicious voting patterns, the mafia may end up not ganging up on an innocent in the future, strengthening the town's position anyway, so here goes! Here is my summary of Day 1 voting: --Gossemer votes Lyter: This looks like a pressure vote to get things started. When lyter turns up green, it *may* throw some suspicion on Gossemer, but I didn't think it particularly did. --Nova votes Lyter based on Lyter's lack of posting. No surprise. --Imallinson votes Lyter "seeing as there isn't a better option at the moment" (bandwagony?) --Bocki votes Lyter "Good as any" (bandwagony?) --BlueyD votes Lyter, but encourages him to defend himself --era votes Lyter (repeats nova's reasoning, bandwagony) --Therapist votes Lyter --I hop on the bandwagon for Lyter reluctantly since he still hadn't posted a defense. --Lyter posts, votes Gossemerr --imallinson unvotes lyter, votes me, presumably because i want to "out a blue" (and he turns up blue  ) Looking back on it, this could have come of to the mafia as paranoia about somebody outing a blue, and may be why he got killed night 1.--Within 3 minutes of each other, era and therapist unvote lyter and vote gossemerr. --A couple minutes later (very close to the deadline now) BlueyD votes Lyter. Just looking at the order, I found it interesting that era and therapist voted lyter back to back, then switched to gossemerr so quickly. It's likely a coincidence, but an interesting anomaly considering their switch to gossemerr occured within 3 minutes of each other, which could suggest they agreed to something in a PM then voted. This argument is weakened by the fact that they voted close to the deadline (~40 minutes before) when likely lots of people were considering changing their vote and reading the thread. Final Day 1 votes: Gossemerr: era / therapist / lyter(Town) / blueyD Lyter: Gossemer / Nova / Bocki / me LazinCajun: imallinson(Town) If you operate under the assumption that day 1 the mafia will vote together (not necessarily a good assumption! If both gossemer and lyter are truly town, the mafia knew this and would've won no matter who gets lynched, and it may have been beneficial for them to split their votes to defuse suspicion). Looking at the voters who ended up on Lyter: I know that I'm town, and I strongly suspect that Nova is town. Various people have aired their suspicions of both Gossemer and Bocki which I won't repeat here, and this would seem to connect them. Looking at the voters who ended up voting Gossemerr: I argued above that era and therapist seem to be linked as well in swapping to Gossemerr with their strange post timings, but TBH I'm not sure that the mafia would have a strong motivation to switch off of Lyter. In Summary: Based on voting patterns, I believe that either Gossemer and Bocki may be linked as scum, or that a two out of era / therapist / blueyD are linked as scum. Based on the strange post timings, I think it's more likely that era and therapist would be connected than BlueyD. The next thing I plan on doing is going through people's posted suspicions carefully -- at first looking only at who they accuse, not with my own interpretations / suspicions -- and seeing if I can use it to augment this argument. | ||
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
(snip) --era votes Lyter (repeats nova's reasoning, bandwagony) --Therapist votes Lyter (snip) --Within 3 minutes of each other, era and therapist unvote lyter and vote gossemerr. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
Connection cases are generally not good, however, that was pretty great, i think. Its actually rather original too, i love it. Also, i noticed a possible connection between era and Therapist as well. Which is why i asked Therapist about his thoughts on era, and the answer i got back was okay, but really didnt say anything either way. Which you cant really base a case off of, but a null read can be a scummy thing to post. Back to back flip flopping from bandwagon to bandwagon... its not exactly something i would suspect two mafia would plan to do, as its inherently scummy, but it definitely doesnt look good. And then theres his recent thing with brief analysis. some points are good, but others are just.... come on. How does era not seem scummy right now?after my cases and other analysis which he barely defended at all, i definitely think you have to be trying hard to NOT find him scummy. So right now, i think that one of BlueyD and Era are scum. if its era, then therapist is also likely to be scum. Not definitely, but more suspicious for sure. this is because era has been going at BlueyD from the beginning, and BlueyD fights back a bit when he can. As it is very important to get a mafia lynch today, era is my best read and i will be voting for him shortly. also we get some good information. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
On April 07 2012 09:27 era wrote: Of course I am trying to Lynch someone that I think is mafia.. Its my job. Do you not understand the point i am making? If you are town, you do not tunnel someone to the point that your arguments dont make sense, and if you are mafia then you are trying to put a load of extra suspicion on an innocent townie, and you are probably hoping this gets buried. Final nail in the coffin. ##Vote: era | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
On April 07 2012 09:49 Bocki wrote: On the "he didnt say much on day1 to help the town": What does saying much on Day1 help the town? Thats my point that I made in my case. BlueyD: As you can read from my case, I do not have much on you that I can read, thats why I didnt want to do my case right now, but I felt pushed, thats why I did it now. I wanted to find out more about you, but I didnt want your accusations be left in the room. When I notice something else about you, I will of course write it. I just wanted to assemble some more info. You defended that, well done. You attacked gosse, I supported him, now you go after me. Thats not "making a good case", thats panic. Nova: I dont think that I am the lurkiest, I think Lazin is. Therapist: I wasnt completely silent on day1 and I didnt just let the town find a green. I proposed the mathematical solution, since it was better than just read into the 4/5 posts that each player wrote. It endet in a green getting killed, but that odd was 7:2, so I dont think it was completely unreasonable. And again BlueyD: You should really consider to make a defense post. Not specially against me but against all the others as well. Therapist, gosse and era listed you as suspicious. If you are town, I'd hate to lynch you because then I would make myself really suspicious, but my feeling is still that you are mafia. Its not a matter of thinking one way or another. You ARE the lurkiest, and statistics prove that if you check filters. Other than that, this defense is decent, i would say | ||
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Bocki
Germany98 Posts
Good analysis. I like the connection stuff (although of course I dont like my upcoming in it, but at least you held by the facts). I only have one correction: --Bocki votes Lyter "Good as any" (bandwagony?) Thats not completely true. I said "good as any" in combination with my mathematical approach. Seviro had the least posts (1 post I think). Gossemeer had 3 posts when I did my vote, lyter had 4. That was the reason why I said "good as any", as in "4 posts are as good as 3 posts". I dont blame you for pointing this out, since it came up 2/3 times now. I hope its clear now why I said it. And about the bandwagony: I proposed the mathematical approach and proposed seviro (that would have been modkilled if he didnt vote at all) or gossemeer. I wanted to hear from the rest if they want to do the mathematical approach or if someone found something. Since the first vote was lyter and he only had 1 post more than my idea, I was fine with it. | ||
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