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yesss, no work is best work. I'll be around for mafia all day today finally x_x
On March 25 2012 14:18 Risen wrote: Here's my overwhelming evidence. I'm claiming openly in thread that I checked acro. He is scum. Two possibilties here. I'm lying, I'm scum, lynch me. I'm telling the truth, I'm not scum, lynch acro. Lynching acro obviously is the best option, but even the worst option here is pretty good for town. I'm lynched tonight and acro is lynched tomorrow. I don't think I can make it any simpler than that.
I don't know if you're deliberately trying to oversimplify the situation or not but there is definitely NOT only two possibilities here. Your oversimplification of "there are only two possibilities" can be either you being stupid at best or you trying to mislead the town about mechanics at worst. And the reason for that is because this game is different from other games. From Curu's OP:
Game Specifics This is a semi-open setup. All possible Town and Mafia roles are listed below. None of these roles are alignment specific (they may be Mafia or Town). Not all of these roles are guaranteed to be in the game but all roles in the game are guaranteed to be from this list.
Who gets what role was generated by random.org. I used the first result that popped up, no changes. So truly random .
So not only do we not know if you're actually a DT or not since we can't confirm your claim but in this game, we don't even know if a DT is a town role or not. Since the roles were distributed by random generator, it is very possible for there to be mafia DTs. In addition, there are possible millers and framers in this game so basing our lynch today solely on your supposed check is ridiculous.
On March 25 2012 15:37 Risen wrote: Mods when I reach majority can we prematurely end the day? Will speed this game up. Asking for day to end early, regardless of situation, is equally ridiculous. Why would we want to lose precious time in which town could be having further discussion? Not to mention the fact that asking mods to "end the day early" on Day 2 is an empty gesture. Mods almost never end cycles early unless its late in the game and a majority of people ask for it. You should know this, you've been playing mafia for a while now if I remember correctly.
I'm going to go reread your and acro's posts. There's no need to hurry here, we have 36+ hours left in the day.
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On March 25 2012 19:38 Xatalos wrote: So, Risen is pretty much either a Detective or Mafia...? I can't think of any reason why a non-Detective townie would act like he does at the moment. And I'm not entirely sure why a Mafia player would either (unless he's just desperate or something?). However, he seems to completely ignore the option of Acrofales being a Miller or framed, which makes me think he's a Mafia player (or a hasty and suicidal Detective). Also, his wish to end the day 2 ahead of time is pretty suspicious, since why would a townie ever want that?
I'm not really sure about his lynching, since there is a possibility of losing a Detective without gaining much (it doesn't yet make Acrofales Mafia, or prove anyone's innocence). But since there is a good chance of him being Mafia, or putting the pressure on Acrofales if he is a Detective, it doesn't seem like as bad a lynch as layabout. Since everyone seems to think gumshoe is innocent (for some reason), it wouldn't be of much use to vote for him anyway. I'll check back later to reconsider my vote, though. Hopefully there has been some more productive discussion and analysis by then, or even a better lynch target than Risen.
##Vote Risen
I can get behind the part about acro being possibly framed, looking back over day 1 he got a lot of flak for his overly defensive start and I would hazard a guess that he would be pretty high on the priority list for a detective to check out, hence also high for a framer to frame. But a detective should know that too, and hence I don't believe a detective should ever go after someone that was as in the limelight as Acro was because said risk is much greater. Which kinda makes me lean onto Risen being scummy combined with how ridiculously focussed he is on his theory that doesn't actually make much sense at all considering it is no way certain that Acro flips opposite to Risen.
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Ok, finally got some free time on my hands, so I'm gonna read over the thread and post some kind of analysis.
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Risen seems to be the hot topic, so I'll start with him I'm calling him as Mafia My biggest reasons for this is that he consistently switches topics to talk about wbg, even though it is widely agreed that we should just be ignoring him: + Show Spoiler +On March 25 2012 10:08 Risen wrote: Also, wbg isn't going to leave his vote on me all day. Don't sheeple onto it if you're town, feel free to do so if you're mafia. When I flip as an eventuality of being lynched or shot at night everything I'm saying will be confirmed and hopefully town still has enough remaining to win. If you lynch acro tonight there will be 3 mafia left. If you lynch me tonight it will be 12 town to 4 mafia, going through a night with 2 kills will make it 10 town to 4 mafia, you'll lynch acro and make it 10 town to 3 mafia. Not a bad situation for town. This seems like it's a really tough game for mafia to win. Maybe b/c of wbg powers/trolling shenans it's more balanced than I can see. I've been thinking. WBG wants a close endgame. He told us greymist was mafia, but we lynched a townie anyways. He's now pushing hard on me. He knows I'm town, so his motives to me are suspect (obviously). It comes back to the 10-3 town to mafia at the start of night 3 should I be lynched as he wants, which is pretty on track for a WBG victory assuming it drops to 8-3 following night 3.
The only tough part about this is that when it turns out wbg is lying about me, what do we do about his claim that Greymist is mafia. I almost investigated him instead of acro, but figured an acro lynch would be more beneficial as a lot of people already think Greymist is mafia. He just seems to post a lot of filler, without really addressing the arguments against him. Though I do agree, should he flip detective it's safe to say that Acro isn't in a great spot. Also this: Mods when I reach majority can we prematurely end the day? Will speed this game up. is just utter garbage.
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Didn't mean to post then, gotta add more stuff in, so I'll just add it in my next post.
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On March 25 2012 13:46 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2012 13:41 GreYMisT wrote:On March 25 2012 10:46 Risen wrote: Ok so mafia knows that acro is being lynched either today or tomorrow 100%. What are they going to do now? They can't just discredit me b/c they'll have to vote to lynch me, which will lead to acro lynch day3. They can't ignore me b/c then acro gets lynched today. Maybe they've already given up on acro living past today and just want to act as pro-town as possible since the discussion today will be entirely focused on whether I'm lying or not
If it's decided I'm lying, then I'm lynched and acro is gone tomorrow so all the discussion tomorrow will be useless as well, if it's decided I'm telling the truth acro is lynched today and tomorrow brings fresh discussion. Or the case I'm not bringing up because it's impossible, acro flips town and I'm therefor mafia and discussion today is pointless and discussion tomorrow is pointless as I'm the obvious lynch.
Therefor, I think the best possible outcome for us is lynching acro today. When he flips mafia I'm confirmed town and we're happy as shit and in a really good spot. (Even if he flips town it gives you a free mafia lynch tomorrow, again this won't happen but town is still in a pretty damn decent position)
Sums up any input I'll have today I think. Time for me to go to my movie, I'll be back later folks. You are not confirmed town when/if acro flips scum we do not know that mafia knows that acro is being lynched today or tomorrow 100% Why even ask us to consider the fact that you will flip scum, if you are not? This, in addition to your extremely defensive nature (during night might I add) leads me to believe you are scum. ##Vote: Risen Because when I flip detective you'll know I've checked him. Just saw this, confirms scum imo. I remember reading in the guide that no good detective would ever roleclaim, and I am willing to follow that logic through.
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I'm going to ignore the whole Risen and Acrofales thing for now, and focus on the death of DoYouHas, which is what we should be focusing on. There is a reason mafia killed DoYouHas; it could be that he was pressuring scum, promoting a good townie enviroment, or both.
He first suspects Acrofales.
On March 22 2012 01:50 DoYouHas wrote:Acrofales reads exactly like newb scum to me from his first posts. His first post reads as already being defensive to me: Show nested quote +On March 21 2012 18:51 Acrofales wrote:Hi everybody! Well, Curu hasn't said I cannot speculate about Petyr's win condition. Remember that this is idle speculation, but I have read the books a number of times and if Petyr is anything, he is untrustworthy. He only serves his own means, so I am inclined to ignore everything he says, including that he is a vanilla townie My hunch is that he must kill Ned Stark and keep Catelyn and/or Sansa alive until the end of the game to win. And then he pulls an OMGUS on 2 different people in a very short period of time. ##Vote: AcrofalesGumshoe, wake up and read day1 carefully. We already know who Littlefinger is 100%. It is given information. Your posts are yet to actually be relevant to the game.
He then talks about how Mattchew is an unhelpful town and that Greymist could be scum if he kept making small posts.
On March 22 2012 08:33 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 07:11 chaoser wrote: and a few questions to DoYouHas. 1. Aside from him being defensive, is there anything else that makes you think Acro is mafia? 2. What about mattchew's non-pressure? 3. What do you think of greymist? 4. and can you give me a list of the top three people you are suspicious/getting scum reads from? 1. No, not really. Acro's initial posts came off as scummy for reasons I've already mentioned. His posts since have not cleared him in my eyes but they are a big step up from his starting posts. I've left my vote on him because I think he deserves to be under pressure and that pressure produced decent posts from him. Of course, now that I have explained this my vote means very little. 2. I don't like the way mattchew is posting. It is ignoring the fact that not only does he have to prove to himself that he is right, he has to prove to all of us that he is right. His style is alienating people who might agree with him which inherently reduces the value of his posts. You will notice that I am ignoring whether he is right/wrong, scum/town. That is because I don't know. In that last game I was in with him, SNMM7, he had a very similar style and was town. It was equally unhelpful then. So on one hand his meta suggests to me townie, but I find his style to be anti-town. 3. Greymist has pretty clearly aligned himself against Gum/Matt, and for Acro. He has also called BS on a number of things that I think deserved it. Honestly, I expect more from him (also, risk.nuke). Right now I have a null read, but if his trend of small posts continues that will move towards a scum read. 4. I'm going to hold off on that list for a bit. Partially so I can have more time to figure it out, and partially so I can spend more time forming my suspicions and less time defending them.
He defends gumshoe and votes for Alderan.
On March 23 2012 08:40 DoYouHas wrote: First off, we should stop talking about gumshoe like he is a noob, or that he is bad. He is neither. This is like his 4-5th game and in the games I have played with him he has shown he can make good analysis as well as be devious. At some point I draw the line and hold him accountable for what he says early on in a game in spite of his reckless streak. That being said, I do lean town for him currently. I just wanted to point out that, to me, it was not bad play from Grey to push gumshoe for his highly questionable early game.
Also, I think Alderan is scum. More on this soon, I'll get to writing up my case.
##Unvote: Oberyn ##Vote: Alderan
He also gives some good reasons.
On March 23 2012 10:31 DoYouHas wrote:Why we should lynch Alderan today. First, what triggered my suspicion of him. Last game (NMMIV) Alderan blamed himself for a fair bit of the loss, citing his lack of activity as what he regretted most: Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 12:29 Alderan wrote: This was my second post in the Obs QT thread. My inactivity fucked us. I apologize town.
I would think that this loss would be at the forefront of Alderan's thoughts this game and since he identified his activity as a major problem, I have been surprised at how passive Alderan has been so far in this game. This raised my suspicion. This suspicion was confirmed when very quickly after gumshoe posts his wall of text Alderan jumps into the thread to defend himself after having been absent for a while. This read to me as active lurking from Alderan. Especially since Alderan stated in his first post: Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 00:54 Alderan wrote: Gotta love Day 1....
Anyway for those interested, Weekends (beginning on Thursday night) are much worse for me than weekdays, but I still should be around in some capacity at all times. So, Alderan has been around in some capacity at all times, yet his filter is a little bit pitiful to read.
Alderan's posting this game has been an odd mix of stirring the pot and trying to cool the thread off. In regards to Acrofales, he first cools, then stirs, then defends. The post I will draw your attention to here is this one. Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 06:07 Alderan wrote: As far as Acrofales, it's always tough to tell the difference between noob town and scum, but his posts seem indicative of being reprimanded in the scumQT, resulting in the change of attitude. Not a bad choice if I had to vote right now. Fortunately we have a little time. He believes that Acro's change in attitude is the result of being reprimanded by a scumteam, but he doesn't cite what specifically in those posts made him draw that conclusion. What I find strange is that Acro's follow up posts which caused many people to back off are used by Alderan as a reason to be more suspicious. And yet after this post he attacks Mattchew for pursuing a shaky case against Acro, then ends up defending Acro after Samuel labels him as obvious lynchbait. This whole sequence makes me think Alderan isn't actually scumhunting, just stirring the pot while trying to be on the 'right' side of early conflicts. In regards to Gumshoe he stirs, cools, and becomes falsely ambivalent. It is the false ambivalence that bothers me here. Alderan's more recent posting has revealed that he has thought gumshoe is town for a while now, and that read is the basis of his suspicion of Greymist. He stated repeatedly that he wanted to wait for gumshoe to post before posting his case on Greymist, but I think this is fundamentally flawed. The core of his case (as I read it) is that Greymist is too veteran to fall for the clear lynchbait of gumshoe if he wasn't mafia. This case was clearly formed before gumshoe came back, and I am at a loss as to why Alderan needed to wait until gumshoe came back to post it. The case works under the assumption that gumshoe is town, and since Alderan is making a case with that assumption, he is biased in favor of gumshoe. Meaning that unless gumshoe came back with posts that looked completely scummy (very unlikely) Alderan's points against Greymist would hold the same value regardless of when he posted them. Then if gumshoe did come back with very scummy posts, it would be easy to recant his attacks on Greymist. So why wait? I think Alderan was playing super safe. Avoiding catching flak for posting a town read on gumshoe before gum came back. This also made Alderan's relative inactivity more palatable because he had already explained he was waiting for gumshoe before he posted more content. Alderan has spread suspicion around on a number of players, but does not actually push any of them. Lyter, Mattchew, Zealos, and yes, even Greymist. Lyter: Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 02:58 Alderan wrote:On March 22 2012 02:55 Lyter wrote:On March 22 2012 02:21 Mattchew wrote:On March 22 2012 02:15 Lyter wrote: I'd say ignore wbg at least for now, we have absolutely no idea what his motives/intentions could be, when more of a picture is formed then we should come back to it by all means. I'm not sure on Acrofales, yea he could be flipping a shit cos he got called out so early, but his actions are hardly unlikely for a new guy anyway. oh so your his scum teammate? Really? You haven't actually done anything other than point fingers so far, with literally nothing to support yourself The ever infallible "NO U" defense... Mattchew: Show nested quote +On March 22 2012 10:54 Alderan wrote: Rereading through the thread, I think Mattchew's behavior has been bizarre to say the least. Everything he has commented on, whether it be the shaky at best case on Acro, or the "pressure" he has attempted to apply has come across a little bit disingenuous.
I'm not getting hung up on the one liners, playing with him for the tail end of a game previously leads me to believe that it's just his style, but he is someone who tends to act on more solid cases than the Acro case. Zealos: Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 04:19 Alderan wrote: @Zealos: Your contributions to the game thus far are as follows: - Identify the 2 most common lynch targets. - Place them into your lynch list.
Thats it. That is incredibly scummy. I shouldn't have to elaborate why.
Greymist: Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 08:13 Alderan wrote: As for Greymist, I was waiting to say anything because I wanted to read your response post to ensure that I was not wrong on my initial read, and I don't believe I was.
That said, I think Greymist is too experienced a player to actually believe a scum would make the mistakes gumshoe made early on. Any semi competent scum team would have identified gumshoe's posting as weak after asking about the mayor, and coached him through his next few posts.
Instead Greymist suggested that the scum stood idly by and watched Greymist go blue fishing the very first day.....
Right.....
Lots of suspicion, but no real attempts to push any of them. TLDR: Alderan's meta from NMMIV suggests that he would be more active and proactive this game than he has been. Alderan's first post and quick response to Gumshoe's points against him imply active lurking, which I see as scummy. The way Alderan dealt with gumshoe and Greymist is strange. Alderan's play has been largely passive and safe, but he still manages to throw out plenty of suspicion. Alderan's lack of pushing his suspicions shows me a reluctance to take the responsibility and attention that pushing a lynch would garner him. Let's lynch us an Alderan
Then he decides to switch to evantrees, because nobody else is voting for Alderan.
On March 24 2012 07:03 DoYouHas wrote: I'm willing to switch over to evantrees for today. He is the one being pushed I can support the most aside from Alderan. His early banter and focus on WBG, his unjustified vote on Mattchew, his lurking, and his acknowledging that he has been useless without showing a desire to change all make him a decent lynch choice for today.
##Unvote: Alderan ##Vote: evantrees
Here he supports a good townie enviroment. On March 24 2012 09:18 DoYouHas wrote: -_-, Stop moaning about the mislynch, use the information to work out who was truly scum day1.
Then he shows that he suspects risk.nuke.
On March 25 2012 08:36 DoYouHas wrote: I have cooled my jets a bit towards Alderan and I now believe that risk.nuke is SCUM (note the capitals).
I wanted to get that out before the day post. I'll expand on it later, but other things are getting in my way of devoting a chunk of time to case building until I get the day post for SNMMIX out there. I'll be sure to finish it before bed tonight, so stay tuned.
Some if-then statements to note.
If risk.nuke is scum then Greymist is likely town. If Greymist is scum then gumshoe is likely town. Unfortunately, he doesn't get to post his case against risk.
The way I see it, there are three possibilities.
1. Alderan is scum, and mafia killed DoYouHas, so we forget about his suspicions.(To me Alderan seems scummier than Risk.) 2. Risk.nuke is scum, and mafia killed DoYouHas, so he couldn't give his reasons for suspecting risk. 3. They're both scum, and mafia killed him for both of the reasons above. (This is pretty unlikely.)
For these reasons, I think it would be good to have a detective check them next night, and we can deal with that information after this Risen thing is settled.
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This risen train is gathering steam pretty damn fast...
On March 25 2012 22:58 Lyter wrote: I can get behind the part about acro being possibly framed, looking back over day 1 he got a lot of flak for his overly defensive start and I would hazard a guess that he would be pretty high on the priority list for a detective to check out, hence also high for a framer to frame. But a detective should know that too, and hence I don't believe a detective should ever go after someone that was as in the limelight as Acro was because said risk is much greater. Which kinda makes me lean onto Risen being scummy combined with how ridiculously focussed he is on his theory that doesn't actually make much sense at all considering it is no way certain that Acro flips opposite to Risen.
this is such shitty logic...you're basically saying since your logic works like this, and someone didn't follow your logic, that they must be scum!
On March 25 2012 23:39 Zealos wrote: Just saw this, confirms scum imo. I remember reading in the guide that no good detective would ever roleclaim, and I am willing to follow that logic through.
um...what? How does that make sense? DT's roleclaim all the time. How else would they get their info out?
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They are meant to make a good case against someone, and on death, the remaining towners have to look over their posts to find the breadcrumbs they left. They want to stay alive as long as possible, and roleclaiming isn't how they should do it. Taken from the guide: + Show Spoiler +3.) Don't claim.
Never, ever, ever claim Cop unless it's LYLO or shit has really hit the fan. This used to be one of the easiest ways to catch Scum because competent cops would never claim. Even if you are about to be lynched DO NOT CLAIM. The best way to avoid being lynched is to talk your way out of it. If you claim, the town believes you, and you live guess what? It's WIFOM time. The town will start talking about all kinds of useless shit like whether or not the Mafia will kill you and what Medics need to do but...guess what? The Mafia has a role blocker. You've screwed yourself out of a Night, someone, and hopefully not the Medic will die and now the next Day the WIFOM circle starts again. Don't claim even at the point of death. If you die you hopefully breadcrumbed your investigations anyway. Though it is for cop, it presumably works the same way for Alignment Detective.
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One somewhere in the Mafia subforum. Just search cop and it comes up. I'm inclined to agree though, claiming day 2 seems stupid.
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lolol, i'm pretty sure we can both agree that risen's and ace's play level is not anywhere near each other. To try to compare their actions or their logic on what action they would each want to do is ridiculous...I think the operative word in that guide from Ace being "competent'. Which I agree with. A competent cop would almost never claim. But given Risen's play this game, especially with his posting (I literally get a headache trying to read through his filter...currently on my...fifth? try to read through it) I think we can say risen, if he IS actually a DT, isn't very competent. Basing a lynch on him primarily due to some weird "I would do this/a good DT would do this, but he didn't, so he's lying!" is bad play.
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I don't think risen is an idiot to be honest, his initial analysis' seemed sound, also, this vote can also be attributed to the other arguments people have made, I am merely adding another angle to the argument of him being mafia.
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risen has been pretty stupid yeah, but he claimed cop so why the hell are you lynching him?
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On March 26 2012 02:44 risk.nuke wrote: risen has been pretty stupid yeah, but he claimed cop so why the hell are you lynching him?
cause cop doesn't meant town in this game.
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I'm back. Gonna catch up on what I missed.
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EWODP: not to mention that claiming cop doesn't even necessarily mean town in this game
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That's why I said, why are you lynching him and not why are you retarded. Can anyone think this situation through and tell me why it could be better to let him live for now?
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