EPTshitty campaigns or joke campaigns should be treated as derailing the thread and taking focus from town to look at it
that means they're scummy
yes
TL Mafia XLVII - Page 36
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Kurumi
Poland6130 Posts
shitty campaigns or joke campaigns should be treated as derailing the thread and taking focus from town to look at it that means they're scummy yes | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On November 24 2011 19:27 Nokarot wrote: I read what a mayor/sheriff do, but how does the day1 process of voting go? Does the mod, after a certain deadline, call for a vote and that's that? Vote in the voting thread, when you hit the deadline (as indicated in the day 1 opening post), the player with the most votes will be elected mayor, and he'll PM me who he wants to lynch. We'll keep a running count of the votes so you can know whats going on. | ||
|
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On November 24 2011 23:12 Toadesstern wrote: Voting for mayor is done just like voting for a lynch is done I presume? That means you type in your vote, you are able (!) to unvote and vote someone new and in generel it works like lynching just that the player with most votes gets to be mayor instead of being lynched? Correct | ||
|
layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On November 24 2011 22:02 Jackal58 wrote: Good morning, role received, game on. Palmar Sandroba BC Decon. Any one of you would make an excellent choice for mayor. If you're town. All 4 of you scare the hell out of me if you're scum. If you would please tell us who or how you will determine who is the person you will lynch on day 1? If you are a noob please consider the fact that while each of those candidates all had an 80% (That's the percentage you're looking for Palmar) probability of rolling town the probability that one of them is scum is damn near 100%. I am calling you out on your math! + Show Spoiler + if the probability that a player is mafia is 0.2, then for four players: X~B(4,0.2) p(X=0)= (4^C0)x(0.2^0)x(0.8^4) =0.4096 (where 4^Cr) represents so, the probabilty none of the 4 players is mafia (they are all town) is approxiamately 41% similarly the probabilty than 1 player is mafia is, (4^c1)x(0.2^1)x(0.2^3)=4x0.2x0.521 =0.4096 (the probability that 2 are mafia is 0.1536, that 3 are mafia is 0.0256 that all 4 are mafia is 0.0016) so 1 player being mafia is also around 41% sir, if you round 41 to 100 then you are either a liar or a (math) liabilty! seeing as we will pick 2 candidates it may be of use to note that P(0scum) = 64% P(1scum)=32% P2scum)=4% (this assumes an equal chance of a player being mafia which may not be the case) Some Initial thoughts perhap we should consider adjusting our expectations for how the major and sheriff should behave. these are very powerful roles and as such, if a scum were given one of these roles they pose a serious threat to town, particularly because it is likely that many of us will consider them as an asset to town. I think that we should ensure that both roles actively post so that we can have information available to analyse. Personally, i favor Palmar as major because what i have seen of his playstyle indicates that as town he poses a threat to mafia, and because i think that he will not be able to provide the amount of analysis as scum as he would as town without looking like scum. Also, if he is town he is probably a a high priority target for mafia, although this could apply to other experienced and therefore "valued" players. Just to clarify, we want experienced players as both major and sheriff correct? And should we vote for a deliberate player as sheriff rather than it becoming whoever gets second place? (so is there a resonable case for a newer player that could be openly directed or a player that has experience but not enough to win the game for mafia should they be elected) (and i am aware that there have been some attempts to answer this question, at least, in part) If a major encourages policies that favour posts in which player clearly outline their resoning and thought processes (when possible) then i would be happy. | ||
|
Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On November 25 2011 03:08 layabout wrote: I am calling you out on your math! + Show Spoiler + if the probability that a player is mafia is 0.2, then for four players: X~B(4,0.2) p(X=0)= (4^C0)x(0.2^0)x(0.8^4) =0.4096 (where 4^Cr) represents so, the probabilty none of the 4 players is mafia (they are all town) is approxiamately 41% similarly the probabilty than 1 player is mafia is, (4^c1)x(0.2^1)x(0.2^3)=4x0.2x0.521 =0.4096 (the probability that 2 are mafia is 0.1536, that 3 are mafia is 0.0256 that all 4 are mafia is 0.0016) so 1 player being mafia is also around 41% sir, if you round 41 to 100 then you are either a liar or a (math) liabilty! seeing as we will pick 2 candidates it may be of use to note that P(0scum) = 64% P(1scum)=32% P2scum)=4% (this assumes an equal chance of a player being mafia which may not be the case) Some Initial thoughts perhap we should consider adjusting our expectations for how the major and sheriff should behave. these are very powerful roles and as such, if a scum were given one of these roles they pose a serious threat to town, particularly because it is likely that many of us will consider them as an asset to town. I think that we should ensure that both roles actively post so that we can have information available to analyse. Personally, i favor Palmar as major because what i have seen of his playstyle indicates that as town he poses a threat to mafia, and because i think that he will not be able to provide the amount of analysis as scum as he would as town without looking like scum. Also, if he is town he is probably a a high priority target for mafia, although this could apply to other experienced and therefore "valued" players. Just to clarify, we want experienced players as both major and sheriff correct? And should we vote for a deliberate player as sheriff rather than it becoming whoever gets second place? (so is there a resonable case for a newer player that could be openly directed or a player that has experience but not enough to win the game for mafia should they be elected) (and i am aware that there have been some attempts to answer this question, at least, in part) If a major encourages policies that favour posts in which player clearly outline their resoning and thought processes (when possible) then i would be happy. Do all the math you want. One of those 4 I listed are most likely from the scum team. I am going to go watch football and eat to much. I'll be back later. | ||
|
tnkted
United States1359 Posts
Also, Kavdragon (I doubt you're reading this) you can SUCK IT Some initial thoughts (I don't have a lot of time, ma is houndin' me to help set up the house for thanksgiving): 1. In this huge environment, we've already seen some scum put themselves into the limelight. I promise that. At least one (i'm guessing more than one) of the canidates are mafia. The risk/reward ratio for running for mayor is heavily skewed in the reward direction, so there is virtually no reason not to run. 2. To scum, having the mayorship is WAAAY more important than it is for a townie, assuming managing your ego is not an issue. As a result, scum is going to be very vocal today, and quieter during the rest of the game. We should keep our eyes open for people who post a lot of mayor related stuff today but clam up later in the game. 3. BCs plan was, for lack of a better term, effing stupid. Directing DTs is a stupid plan, even in a game with possibly insane detectives. Why? Because the entire plan depends on BC being town. Everyone whose talked about how good his scumgame is weren't lying. BC, if scum, could easily direct DT checks to townies. A weaker man, a man lesser than I, could make an arguement that BC's stupid plan is evidence that he's actually town and just playing poorly. Luckily for everyone, such a wifomy fellah isn't here. My own personal suspect list operates thusly (I'll give some reasons later, I'm really up against the burner!): 1. Kurumi 2. Palmar 3. Deconduo Kurumi/palmar I'm getting crazy scumvibes from. Deconduo, less so, but I'm a bit uneasy about him. Mayor Campaign For what my humble reputations worth, I'm not endorsing any canidate yet. I am most inclined towards BC's campaign at the moment, but only for the dumb little wifom reasons I mentioned earlier. I can tell you this though: I will not be voting for palmar, redff, or siani. This isn't because I dislike any of them as players, but its because all of them have heavily emotional and aggressive playstyles, and I've never played in a game in which that was a good attitude for the mayor. We need somebody a cooler temper, somebody more analyitical. Being the mayor means having a constant spot in the limelight, he (or she!) has to weigh data in a collected manor. Can you imagine a mayor disregarding evidence because he or she is too emotional volatile to make the correct decision? It's happened before. Emotional people are the easiest for mafia to manipulate. Further bulletins as events warrant / guests leave. | ||
|
bonifaceviii
Canada2890 Posts
1) Mayor town, Sherriff town 2) Mayor scum, Sherriff scum 3) Mayor town, Sherriff scum 4) Mayor scum, Sherriff town 1) Best case scenario! Town has hopefully voted a strong scumhunter who can use his 3 votes and 2 double-lynches (something only one mayoral candidate has even discussed, by the way) effectively, with an extra roleblock to boot! 2) Worst case scenario! Town has to figure out, first of all, that the mayor is scum which will be difficult in itself given framers and then work against the mayor's 3 votes to lynch him, all while the sherriff roleblocks important townies (or protects mafia when they've been called out as vig targets). 3) Uphill battle, complicated by the fact that the mayor cannot day 1 lynch the sherriff. The mafia will immediately start going after bodyguards since they know who they are, so the mayor will need to lead a strong lynchmob against the sherriff as soon as there is any sign of skullduggery afoot. 4) In my opinion a mafia mayor would probably not call double lynches until later in the game, but that might be terrible newbie logic. Either way this is the situation that would be the most difficult to detect, and I really don't know what would happen. | ||
|
AmericanUmlaut
Germany2572 Posts
On November 25 2011 03:21 bonifaceviii wrote: If we're going to talk about the use of the roles, let's outline the possible results of the election: 1) Mayor town, Sherriff town 2) Mayor scum, Sherriff scum 3) Mayor town, Sherriff scum 4) Mayor scum, Sherriff town 1) Best case scenario! Town has hopefully voted a strong scumhunter who can use his 3 votes and 2 double-lynches (something only one mayoral candidate has even discussed, by the way) effectively, with an extra roleblock to boot! 2) Worst case scenario! Town has to figure out, first of all, that the mayor is scum which will be difficult in itself given framers and then work against the mayor's 3 votes to lynch him, all while the sherriff roleblocks important townies (or protects mafia when they've been called out as vig targets). 3) Uphill battle, complicated by the fact that the mayor cannot day 1 lynch the sherriff. The mafia will immediately start going after bodyguards since they know who they are, so the mayor will need to lead a strong lynchmob against the sherriff as soon as there is any sign of skullduggery afoot. 4) In my opinion a mafia mayor would probably not call double lynches until later in the game, but that might be terrible newbie logic. Either way this is the situation that would be the most difficult to detect, and I really don't know what would happen. Okay, if I'm gonna play, I've got to play, right? So this feels a bit scummy to me. It's a classic case of an infodump post that doesn't actually add anything to the conversation. YM's posting feels a tiny bit scummy to me, too, but in a sort of complex logic way. I think in a game with only or mostly vets, his play thus far would be obviously town because it's so aggressive and attention drawing that it would be stupid if he were scum. Because this game is heavily populated by noobs, though, the Mafia basically just need like one or two people to sow FUD and create a chaotic atmosphere of accusations back and forth. Even if YM's finger pointing eventually causes him to get lynched and he flips red, he could conceivably be hoping that random accusations could cause enough damage to be worth the risk. | ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22630 Posts
On November 25 2011 03:19 Jackal58 wrote: Do all the math you want. One of those 4 I listed are most likely from the scum team. I am going to go watch football and eat to much. I'll be back later. Slowest game ever. I'm off too for a while. | ||
|
AmericanUmlaut
Germany2572 Posts
Oh, and happy Thanksgiving to everyone in America! I've actually got to go now and brine my turkey in preparation for our late Thanksgiving celebration on Saturday :-D | ||
|
redFF
United States3910 Posts
| ||
|
redFF
United States3910 Posts
On November 24 2011 23:13 Serejai wrote: ##Vote sinani206 @mods i told you not to let this guy play lol | ||
|
Kurumi
Poland6130 Posts
On November 25 2011 03:54 redFF wrote: EVERYONE WHO HAS POSTED IN THE VOTING THREAD HAS TO COME POST HERE TELLING US WHY THEY VOTED WHO THEY DID. I'd vote sinani206 for lynch but I forgot there's mayoral election. Screw it. Also, I am going to read the thread tomorrow, I just don't want to see the "Kurumi is afk/not trollin thus scum" bullshit. I totally love this prestigious school. | ||
|
layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On November 25 2011 03:19 Jackal58 wrote: Do all the math you want. One of those 4 I listed are most likely from the scum team. I am going to go watch football and eat to much. I'll be back later. then can you please justify why you think that one of them is scum? | ||
|
Risen
United States7927 Posts
| ||
|
Drazerk
United Kingdom31255 Posts
On November 25 2011 04:03 Risen wrote: Voted redFF for mayor because he had his credentials up and I liked them. Prplhz would mos def be a close second because he actually made a really nice, helpful post. Potential scum post, but that's some serious mindfuck action if prplhz is scum. On the fence of whether to swap from redFF to prplhz. Help me decide? :S Who has the better campaign? Who do you think will lead the town better? Why do you think Red is better than other candidates? | ||
|
DeadlyPsycho
United States46 Posts
On November 25 2011 02:12 Palmar wrote: Have you played on Teamliquid before? If so you should know that kinda bullshit doesn't actually work here. We hold people responsible for bad arguments. If someone is vocally pushing for something blatantly scummy or illogical, he will be scrutinized. Which is exactly what I am saying. | ||
|
IMABUNNEH
United Kingdom1062 Posts
On November 24 2011 23:16 bonifaceviii wrote: I'm not sure this is scummy or not, but it's definitely dumb. It's pretty dumb, but last game I played with hyshes he got himself lynched as a townie for doing something remarkably stupid, so I'm not certain I'd read into idiocy on his part. On November 25 2011 00:55 Jackal58 wrote: Palmar, Decon, BC, Sandroba - Question Who did you receive your role PM from? WTF is this? No really, WTF is this? On November 25 2011 03:19 Jackal58 wrote: Show nested quote + Do all the math you want. One of those 4 I listed are most likely from the scum team. I am going to go watch football and eat to much. I'll be back later. then can you please justify why you think that one of them is scum? I'll justify why I think one of them is. It stands entirely to reason a minimum of 1 scum, probably 2, would be trying to run for mayor, and pusing a "strong" campaign to do so. The mayoral position is too good to NOT attempt to take for scum. Yet I needed to vote for one of them. To me, the guy with the DT plan seemed the least town. The plan was weak and ill thought out, and I don't believe it actually benefits town much at all. Palmar on the other hand has already been attacked by someone who outright contradicted themselves (youngminii). He said he never said Palmar's scum was better than his town, when the quote shows he did exactly that. Absolutely that's already dumb, and I agree with the Lynch all Liars strategy. To me, that's an outright first pick of what has so far been said, and the fact that he's openly attacked one of the guys that feels most town of the candidates to me is what seals it. | ||
|
Nokarot
United States1410 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [youngminii contradiction] + On November 24 2011 22:05 youngminii wrote: See you guys have already been sucked in by Palmar's smooth talking. When did I ever say Palmar's scum is better than his town? That's just a strawman that Palmar invented to make his own points stronger. On November 24 2011 18:37 youngminii wrote: This is a lie. Your scum play is better than your town play, according to memory. You have so much sway with the majority of people that if anyone actually calls you out once you have your tight rein on town, you'll get your herd to quick lynch the offender. As minus_human initially pointed out, this is quite a slip up. I'm not sure it defines him as mafia, but it certainly makes me question his credibility in making accusations. I said if YM failed to convince me I might be inclined to change my vote from prplhz to Palmar. I'm not quite ready to do that yet, because I feel prplhz has said some additional things that make sense to me, but I am willing to dismiss any suspicions against Palmar. ______________________________________ Ultimately, my main concern now for picking Palmar is the "what if" factor. What if he is mafia? Even if his former mafia play is poor, as he claims, people evolve and learn. The simple fact is that if a veteran becomes mayor and ends up being mafia, I trust them above anyone else to be careful enough to hide themselves, even whilst they are under extreme scrutiny. On the other hand, what if he is town? He claims to be an excellent mafia hunter. Making him mayor would prove a valuable asset, as he would presumably have bodyguards to keep him alive and do his job. If he wasn't elected mayor as a town, from what I understand, veterans townies are often first-turn targets. Unfortunately, I fall under a mindset of "plan for the worst, hope for the best." The 5:1 town to mafia ratio may or may not include RNG veteran dispersion. On the chance it doesn't, the odds shift in a way I'm not comfortable with them shifting. That goes for any veteran, not just Palmar. Some people have claimed to play a few games with prplhz, but I gather he is less of a veteran than others. In hindsight, I believe his policies require some revision, but I still believe his words to be very town-like. supersoft and redFF have quoted prplhz in saying that he is appealing to a newbies emotions to gather votes and not logic. I don't quite read him that way- when prplhz said "If you are afraid that you might make a silly mistake because this is your first game, and scum will jump on you for it and try to get you lynched, you need to vote me for mayor" I do see the emotional connotations behind it, but the logic as well. He is willing to apply critical thinking before incriminating a newbie for a minor mistake, where others with LaLiars policies may automatically assume newbie mistakes are evidence of mafia affiliation (man, I really hate the words scum/scummy.) My vote stays with prplhz for now- however, is still very up for grabs. I think it is safe to say I won't vote for Palmar, though- not because he doesn't make good arguments, but because of my maybe-irrational "what if" fear. | ||
|
minus_human
4784 Posts
| ||
| ||
