EPTZvT scouting
This MU is not as seedy w.r.t. scouting as most people believe. It can still get pretty gross, but there are ways around some of the guessing people think is necessitated by wall-ins.
2:35-2:38 is 12 rax finish time. This means you can deduce the exact supplies of the 2 rax (11/11, 12/14, 12/12, etc), and also deduce gas first, which is very important because gas first hellions can start very early (4:21 for 11rax12gas instead of 4:38 for 12rax13gas) and the gas first banshee pops at 6:00, which is 33 seconds earlier than 12 rax 13 gas banshee.
1) General non close-air positions with 0 gas:
You begin with your drone scout. If you see the rax finishing at 2:35-2:38 like normal , and no gas, ATM you know he's at least 12 rax 0 gas. You have to figure out if he's proxy rax. Go to his mineral line and count the SCVs. At the timing just preceding OC morph, if he has 13 then you know he isn't proxy (the 14th pops the moment OC starts basically). If he has 12 and an scv doesn't come and scout you at appropriate time, he's proxy. I believe it is beyond debate that this is critical due to the diversity of proxy locations, and you will outright die if he pools marines and scv pulls at the right time and you've droned till your 24/25 overlord like you should against 1 rax FE. The only problem is you have to pull your drone from mining at around 10 supply on mid sized maps otherwise he can wall you in with a 15 depot if he's 0 gas 12 rax or 12 rax 13 gas (you need about 6 ingame seconds to count his scvs at the 2:30 mark, and it's quite easy to mess up with SCVs bouncing off full patches and so on).
2) Standard gas, 12 rax 13 gas:
You can figure if he's gas first or 12 rax 13 gas in the same fashion. Gas should finish a few seconds before rax, so if rax finish 2:35-2:38 and u see gas already done (and has 14 scv at OC morph or 13 just before) then by necessity he is 12 13. If you're hatch first and not 14g14p then you will leave your drone in his natural and around 4:00 you will check to see if he's reactor hellion. This is important because the first 2 hellions finish at 5:08 off 12 rax 13 gas 2 marine reactor hellion (production starts at 4:38, although it can be delayed to 4:42 with the slightest inefficiencies), and your first two lings off 1515 and even 1514 (yes this is faster lings than 1414) get there too late to put 2 spines in time. Hellions will be in your natural before the spines finish if you rely on this.
Once reaper and reactor hellion are eliminated from his range, you must be aware of 12 rax 13 gas banshee finishing 6:33, and if he's 1 port then cloak finishes at 7:15. If you're one of those zergs who does quick 3 hatch without lair then against 12 rax 13 gas with no reaper or reactor hellion (so 1-1-1 str8 into cloak banshee is a large part of his range), you'll need to start the evo at 6:10 so your spore finishes at 7:15 for the 12 gas 13 rax cloak banshee that will be on your base at this moment. I'm not sure whether it's good to patrol lings around his main and cancel the evo at 6:45 when he shouldn't be 1 port cloak (I already know he's not proxy because I have the APM to search the whole map) except still make queens as 2 port is in his range. I will have to experiment with this for a long time.
3) Gas first:
For gas first, you just have to be aware of how much faster his tech will be out. If his rax finishes at 2:53 and already has gas then enemy can 11 gas 12 rax into 4:21 reactor hellion (17 seconds earlier than normal). I'm not sure of the optimal defence against this as you have to make 2 spines so early if you're doing ling spine queen as a hold. Gas first banshee comes about 30 seconds earlier, 11 gas 12 rax banshee finishes 6:00. So if you've eliminated gas first reactor hellion and 1111/1112/1212 reaper with the drone you've left in his natural, then you need extra queen production before 6:00 and detection soon after. It might be simpler just to steal.
4) 2 rax:
The 12 rax 2:35-2:38 timing is important because if terran is 2 rax and the first rax finishes non-trivially before 2:35 you know you need to invest much more in defenc(s?)e because he's more all in (11/11, 11/12, whatever).
This timing allows you to tell what type of 2 rax it is, or whether it's 1 rax (12 rax 0 gas), in close air meta/shattered without even checking the front - which can actually afford you some pretty awesome close air OL scouting patterns, consdering some good terrans rely on the OL to go to the wall position after bouncing off the CC. Which leads me to:
5) General close-air position 0 gas:
a) 2:38 OC morph with 14 scv (or 13 before morph) is 12 rax 0 gas, 1 rax into CC or 1 rax into mass rax.
b) 2:38 OC morph with 13 scv (or 12 before morph) is 12 rax 14 rax economic 2 rax.
c) No OC at 2:38 with 15 SCV at 2:38 (or 14 with him scouting) is CC first.
d) No OC but 11-12 SCV at 2:38 usual SCV finish timing hes 11/11 or 12/12 or 11/12. If he has 13 SCVs just proceeding 2:38 then he's 12/13, expect OC morph at around 2:42-2:45 to validate this. 11/12 has the OC morph at 2:48 with 2 marines out of each rax and 13 or 14 scvs in total (i forget the exact number, this number includes the 2 OCs proxying the rax), so this is what you're looking for as your overlord leaves in this situation to cement the read in your mind (even though you already knew before hand).
6) Bottom ramp wall-in:
If your opponent is doing the bottom ramp wall in and all you see is 2:38 rax finish, you need to look for 2 pieces of information. Don't get concerned about 2:40 rax finish, some ramps are quite far away. The first marine pops at 3:05 and the next at 3:30, and so on. If he reveals a small batch of marines early on, COUNT THEM, and see if it's the correct number for 1 rax. If he just shows 1 rax worth of marines, this of course doesn't mean he's not 2 rax or 4 rax or something stupid, but it does help you narrow his build range and you are playing towards a more defined and accurate distribution which only serves to improve your winrate assuming you react appropriately to his range. But really you're looking for 2 rax worth of marines. And this is for all you guys who have been criticising the legitimacy of these timings.
Idra's stream about 2 months ago. He sees 3:37 marine running down enemy's ramp. He didn't know this timing (I must presume), so he says it's probably 2 rax (but he did express that he wasn't 100% sure). This is another reason why these timings are vital. Random stuff like this that can screw you up 1 in every few thousand games even if you're incredible.
The second piece of information is whether he cuts marines at 3:05. If so, given my experience, 12 rax 16 command dominates his build range. Which leads me to the following discussion:
7) A problem I haven't figured out yet:
The puzzle I'm now trying to get past right now is what to do in the face of a terran who ceases marine production at 3:05-3:08 (so he makes 1 marine). I have learned that 4-6 rax can follow off this but it is rare. My goal in the coming weeks is to find out when 17 marine starts after 16 command is laid down. (So how long it takes 15 scv and whatever portion of the mule to mine 450 mineral with average scv stacking). Not a 100% reliable tell, but again helps in my goal of narrowing the range i assign to my opponent, and it's good that super high level tricks like this (making 17 marine at exacting time when he's doing 4-6 rax) isn't part of the meta game, and probably will never be because terran has to assume zerg is the biggest sicko nerd ever.
Conclusion:
I'm actually so excited about what I will learn in the next few months about zvt scouting!!! So much to learn! Especially w.r.t. builds that follow 12 rax 16 command. Only timing I know is the earliest blue flame possible off 12 rax 16cc into quick double gas is done at 7:55 (which happens to also be the time t hat the 5th and 6th hellion is finished), so I always make sure to have at least 2 spines done in my nat if he shows CC, only marine in natural, and especially if no gases are taken and his marines only have 45 hp (albeit I dunno the terran range that well when he doesn't show techlab on wall in rax, so i take this last tell very lightly. This just stems from my inexperience).
ZvP scouting
Despite ZvP having more timings to learn, timings aren't as important as his range is betrayed by the composition he shows in comparison to nexus and usually this with general gas timings and chrono allocation is enough. However, timings can be used to objectify scouting. Something like "Oh, I feel like he should have extra 3 sentry warp in 20 second ago and not now given he 2 gas normal time" is not an accurate way of going about things, and it requires conscious thought. Timings eliminate conscious thought. 5:09 nexus. BAM. You KNOW he is 1 gate expansion with only 32 or 33 supply in probes and no 34 pylon. There is 0 thought. You KNOW his range is dominated by this 1 build (You've scouted 14 gas 19 gas). There is no thinking and no second guessing. An individual who sticks to experience and intuition will be like "hmm.. 1 gate expo or 1 gate twilight into DT", because nexus timing for both these builds is very similar and both nexus timing is earlier than 3 gate expansion. BAD, even if 1 gate twilight nexus DT is much more uncommon vs 1 gate nexus. And please don't be like "but if 5:20 nexus u coudl get tricked!", no you simply use your brain and know that either build is possible, only 5:09 necessitates 1 gate nexus, 5:20 does not necessitate anything just leaves his distribution with more elements.
First, the bare fundamentals:
1) Cyber core:
- You first look at his cyber finish timing. This in turn leads to the deduction of gateway timing. If the core finishes at 3:42-3:50, then he did a 13 gate with 1 chrono preceding it. 1 chrono 12 gate cyber finish timing is slightly early as the gateway finishes at 2:42 instead of 2:53. Why is this important? Easy. If 14 or 15 gate, don't you think you should know? What if he slips in gas first, are you just going to NOT notice? What if he does a 10 pylon 10 gate, notice! Timing is the efficient way of noticing, comparing to drone count is bad because every map has different drone run distance so you have to learn relative timings for what 8-10 maps, learning 1 timing is better. This timing was most important in previous patch, because he could have wg research done at 4:55 if hes doing the 10pylon 10gate 50-gas 18 probe zealot 4 gate (a script that has everything perfect and there is no 9 scout and builds everything close to nexus could actually complete research at 4:45!) or 5:15 for 20 probe 1 gas 4 gate but with the wg nerf it's not as crucial. At present it's most important in order to see if he's gas first. So the core finishes significantly after 3:50, what do you do?
2) Checking gas:
Check his first gas. Click on it. At 4:00, it should have 2355 if he went 9 pylon 1 chrono 13 gate 14 gas. But what if your drone isn't there at 4:00? Gas geysers mine at 116/minute (1-2 different for more efficient geysers, such as the far one on metalopolis by the way!). So if you see this at a different time just click and do the maths. Don't worry, just before you actually get in this situation do (2355) - (116/2) = ? and this is your 4:30 amount. Boom! You've solved a big part of gas first. Yes, I realise it is very rare among good protoss. It is still good to have. Why? Some players like Huk will just not get gate for ages until he knows you're pool first and not hatch first. Others, MC doing DT for example, will gas first your ass. You need to tell the difference as you have to play completeeeelllllly different vs both options.
After this there's not much more to do with the drone. You of course do basic thing like check 2nd gas timing, and chrono save. If you want to save drone just leave via mineral walking before zealot+0:35 or zealot+0:25 with 1 chrono on gate after zealot (this includes a 2s safety window. If he's stalker you have an additional 5 seconds).
3) Nexus timing:
After this point, you're mainly relying on your lings outside his base. For this portion of scouting, you have
- 5:31 nexus is really the earliest 3 gate expo. You have 33 in probes, no 34 pylon.
- 5:49 nexus is what you saw quite often in the last patch, where you have 34 supply. I really don't know what causes the 18 second disparity. I forget if 5:49 nexus has the 34 pylon before it.
- 6:09 is the latest 3 gate nexus you're going to see unless you keep all inning him or something. It's 34 pylon finished, 37 in probes, and 3 sentries made out of the first gateway.
All these compose the realistic 14 gas 19 gas timings 3 gate expansion nexus timing range. Before and after are possible, but quite rare, and you will know anyway.
I'm not saying that 6:09 nexus is 14gas 19gas 37 supply 3 gate expansion. No. I'm saying this information is needed as you will have to cross reference future data about warpins and unit composition back to his nexus timing to know what buildings he has in his main and thus how many drones you are allowed to make etc.
4) Special situation 1: Stargate and blink cheese.
After 6:10, if there's no nexus and he's 2 gas, you become very suspicious. After this timing, the following are common gas cheeses that you will face off 14,19:
- 6:45 blink research finish, full chrono. If you don't drone scout, or you leave his base at zealot+0:25 because you don't want to die to a chronod sentry, he can have blink research finished at 6:36 because you not being there affords him an auto twilight. This does not change anything as he's not going to have 4 stalkers before 6:50 anyway. It doesn't actually increase the power of the rush in any way so you the earlier twilight doesn't change the amount of units you need.
- 7:10 4th phoenix leaves stargate, full chrono
Unfortunately I know not the timing for 1 base VR plays, such as 2 gate 1 void ray expansion (i.e. when the voidray pops) or 1 void 3 phoenix or 2+ voidray 3-5 gate cheese. But we'll see that it doesn't matter.
If he is 14gas 18/19 gas, drone see saved chronos, and no chrono on core, and no nexus: he's one of these two builds a huge amount of the time disregarding warpprism and other uncommon cheese (He could be another variation of stargate that has nexus such as 2 gate voidray but my suggested response doesn't, and CAN'T, change, due to the necessitation of units due to blink remaining in his range). I'm not sure the optimal response against the above information. I'm feeling mass ling, as this is good vs both elements of his range and is necessatated pre-6:45-6:55 anyway. I'm also not sure on whether I should get a spore in each base or 4 queens when I know he's either blink or stargate. I'm not sold on mass droning after 6:58 when you "know" he's stargate doing a stargate all-in or semi all-in, as you could be playing someone who just waits for 8 stalkers before moving out, or you may have missed a proxy pylon.
He's not DTs. DTs use chronos on nexus and then core. Further, the vast majority of DT builds involve nexus because it adds trick value, you have excess minerals, and you're still in the game if your DTs do damage but don't cripple.
5) Special situation 2: DTs
These usually involve nexus as you can afford it. Nexus can be very early or very late, and it all depends on whether P is 1 gate twilight nexus into 3 gate DT or 3 gate twilight nexus into DT. Odd nexus timing is not a necessary condition for DT though. The tell of a DT rush is the lack of 3rd-5th sentry.
a) A 14 gas 19 gas can fit 2 sentries and still have gas for 2 DT warp at 7:10. If your lings and initial drone see 2 chrono on core and hes doing usual 3 gate expo you would expect 3rd-5th sentry warp at 6:20 assuming he's not freaked about anything. So what you do is you keep checking for this and if not you put evo at 6:25. This means you have spore finished in both bases at 7:30, and you will never die to the DTs in this scenario.
b) A 14 gas 19 gas without sentry OR stalker can have 3 DTs warp in at 6:45. You'll know, however, as he may try to fill in with a stalker made past 4:45, which is way too late. Further, this scenario will never happen if you drone scout because he can't auto twilight due to nothing denying it and your lings will check everywhere for proxy.
c) A 14 gas 17 gas can have 1 sentry 1 stalker and 2 dts warped in at 6:55.
You've cleared everywhere of proxy pylons so you a lot of the time because he has to run the DTs from his base to your base. (A worker takes 0:53 to traverse xel naga to give you some perspective). Sure he can hide sentries, but you have to respect the information.
Stopping DTs with 100% success is pretty simple, actually. If he's 1419 and he makes the initial 2 sentries, and he doesn't warp sentries in front of you at 6:20 off 2 chronos (adjust by subtracting or adding 0:10 according to chronos on core) then make an evo 5 seconds after. If he's c), 1417 and shows a stalker and a sentry make an evo at about 6:10 without waiting for the 6:20 (off 2 chrono) warp in, and simply cancel if he warps in sentries at 6:20 (off 2 chrono, adjust accordingly).
If he's b), then you're in this situation because you didn't drone scout. I don't know how to stop this one without drone scouting, as he can autotwilight and 2 DT at 6:45 with zealot followed by stalker. I'll have to ask a better, non drone scouting player about this.
If he hides sentries, you have to bear the burden of lost minerals. I don't know any lair timings for this because I'm a later lair kinda guy.
6) Unsolved problems:
How to distinguish 6:09 nexus from 4 gate with 33 in probe (cancel strat) to 3 gate with 37 in probe (non-greedy 3 gate expansion). I'm thinking if there's no building wall I should be biased towards cancel. [Plz don't get all nazi about 6:09. I know 6:09 doesn't necessitate anything. But I do know that a 6:09 nexus has a range composed of these 2 exact builds which is why I'm using it]
I still haven't solved 3 gate nexus into 5 gate cancel or 1 gate expansion into 4 gate cancel, but I'm sure certain timings and composition on the building wallin at the natural should cause me to alter the probabilities I assign to the elements of his distribution, I'm just not sure how and to what extent.
A complete forge FE deconstruction will come in a few months.
So much to learn!
Arbitrage.505
