|
|
|
United States22154 Posts
On November 13 2011 13:50 Skrammen wrote:Oh you bastards, you If you are ever on a scum team with me, I will make sure we communicate with cleverly encrypted newspaper articles ^_^
|
Define cleverly encrypted. SHA-512?
|
More like codenames and shit, articles with hash codes would look pretty suspicious I guess
|
It was really hard coaching without giving stuff away like my own reads and stuff. I wanted so much to tell Skrammen that Ciryandor was like 99.9999% scum. Actually I sent this PM to him:
What I would do is protect the most confirmed Town member. The guy who no one is ever going to lynch.
There are two parts to this: remember that Mafia only needs to get 1 mislynch the rest of the game to win. That means they are probably not going to hit anyone that has suspicion on them since they can try to get them mislynched in one of the cycles.
Protecting someone who is largely considered confirmed Town would ensure that that person cannot be killed if they are Town so it narrows down the pool of mislynch candidates. If the person is completely left alone then that tells you there is a good chance they are Mafia. Why? Because you already chose to no lynch on a mylo, that means the Mafia night hit actually isn't important. Regardless of whether or not the hit goes through or is blocked, Mafia still only needs 1 mislynch to win. The absolute optimal play for scum in this situation considering they know there is a Medic still alive is to abstain from shooting because a successful kill doesn't accomplish anything while a successful save confirms another person as Town. If they were to play optimally they would choose not to shoot tonight. The next best play for them would be to hit the most confirmed Town member since if they are saved it doesn't matter, they weren't going to get lynched anyways.
The worst possible play for Mafia would be to hit someone under suspicion since if they get saved Mafia just confirmed a mislynch candidate as Town and if they die they removed one of the mislynch candidates anyways.
Of course this all assumes Mafia plays optimally which might be a bit of a stretch in a Newbie game. But I would just protect the person who is most likely Town.
Whether you want that to be HoD or someone else is up to you, saving HoD guarantees there is at least one person left in the next cycle that you know is confirmed Town, saving someone else opens up the chance that HoD might die but also gives you the chance to confirm someone else as Town.
I tried to just give generic advice without getting into specifics in the game.
Toadesstern and I talked a bit, mostly about what to do when people thought it was him vs Skrammen. Skrammen and I talked a lot. Zanfada didn't talk to me.
|
On November 13 2011 14:08 Curu wrote:It was really hard coaching without giving stuff away like my own reads and stuff. I wanted so much to tell Skrammen that Ciryandor was like 99.9999% scum. Actually I sent this PM to him: Show nested quote +What I would do is protect the most confirmed Town member. The guy who no one is ever going to lynch.
There are two parts to this: remember that Mafia only needs to get 1 mislynch the rest of the game to win. That means they are probably not going to hit anyone that has suspicion on them since they can try to get them mislynched in one of the cycles.
Protecting someone who is largely considered confirmed Town would ensure that that person cannot be killed if they are Town so it narrows down the pool of mislynch candidates. If the person is completely left alone then that tells you there is a good chance they are Mafia. Why? Because you already chose to no lynch on a mylo, that means the Mafia night hit actually isn't important. Regardless of whether or not the hit goes through or is blocked, Mafia still only needs 1 mislynch to win. The absolute optimal play for scum in this situation considering they know there is a Medic still alive is to abstain from shooting because a successful kill doesn't accomplish anything while a successful save confirms another person as Town. If they were to play optimally they would choose not to shoot tonight. The next best play for them would be to hit the most confirmed Town member since if they are saved it doesn't matter, they weren't going to get lynched anyways.
The worst possible play for Mafia would be to hit someone under suspicion since if they get saved Mafia just confirmed a mislynch candidate as Town and if they die they removed one of the mislynch candidates anyways.
Of course this all assumes Mafia plays optimally which might be a bit of a stretch in a Newbie game. But I would just protect the person who is most likely Town.
Whether you want that to be HoD or someone else is up to you, saving HoD guarantees there is at least one person left in the next cycle that you know is confirmed Town, saving someone else opens up the chance that HoD might die but also gives you the chance to confirm someone else as Town. I tried to just give generic advice without getting into specifics in the game. Toadesstern and I talked a bit, mostly about what to do when people thought it was him vs Skrammen. Skrammen and I talked a lot. Zanfada didn't talk to me.
Well I appreciated your input but honestly, i'm a bit dense. I see it clear as day what you meant now, but when I read it I really wasnt sure.
|
It's a learning game! You pulled off a nice save .
Mafia will usually win games where people are newer because Town is punished much harder for inexperienced play than Mafia is.
Hope you guys decide to stick around and play more games in the future!
|
On November 13 2011 14:16 Curu wrote:
Hope you guys decide to stick around and play more games in the future!
I enjoyed my first taste of TL Mafia. I signed up for the Steamship game that's coming up as well, it looks fun
|
If they were to play optimally they would choose not to shoot tonight. The next best play for them would be to hit the most confirmed Town member since if they are saved it doesn't matter, they weren't going to get lynched anyways. I was confused when they actually shot someone, as I realized this as well :-P
Until the end the lynches Ciry pushed tended to be one of the two people I was most suspicious of, so I came to trust him as a townie. Combine that with Sermokala's odd statements upon being subbed into the game (like immediately saying he couldn't be scum since no mafia goes inactive, that felt incredibly out of place), as well as repeatedly calling me scum, and that set him up to be the last mislynch for a scum win :-( One of Bunneh's posts was actually the biggest tipoffs to me that Ciry might be scum, but at that point it was too late. The post:
##vota semokala but only because I trust Harb's judgement. It's a vote to at least make it clear I'll be voting with what you think is best regardless. Considering Ciry started the vote, that post just screamed that 1) You were scum and 2) Ciry might not be town. But 6 hours before the final lynch at lylo...a tad late to realize things :-D
|
wherebugsgo's circus My Thoughts and Conclusions
So, this will be aimed primarily at the people I was assigned to coach, and to town in general:
You guys need to read the thread and reevaluate at every important juncture. I can't stress this enough. My first game (which wasn't that long ago, only like 3 months) I didn't do this, and I paid the price with really shitty scumreads. Connections were sitting in front of my face and I could've had 2/3 of the scumteam if I had just read better. Even now I notice that I often miss things. Everyone does. I missed a few things as I was reading through this game (although I'll be honest, I didn't read a hell of a lot). In the end, my scumreads were Bunneh+xsksc (forsure) plus one of Ciryandor/Harbringer. I actually originally thought it was Ciryandor but switched to HoD when I thought he said something incredibly weird/scummy. Of course, that was based on one page of reading! Proves you can do a lot with just a little. Examples:
If you lynch someone and they flip town, go back and reread the thread.
When someone gets shot at night, go back and reread the thread. Maybe you'll find out why. + Show Spoiler +Although I should warn you that you shouldn't jump to conclusions about night kills. Sometimes they're straightforward, but most of the time only scum know why someone was shot. If someone claims, go back and reread the thread.
If a bandwagon starts forming on someone, go back and reread the thread.
So many townies in this game just ate the misinformation that scum were pushing. Read the thread yourself and get your own opinions. Don't let them control the pace of the game. From day 1, town was misdirected and confused because of a lack of activity and a lack of thread awareness. Townies were clueless from the start because they weren't reading. I do remember that a couple people had good ideas, but they had almost no clout. (I don't remember who, sorry) Not only do you need good ideas, you need to present them well. Some people are good at being loud. Some people are good at being aggressive. Some people are good at trapping scum. Some people are good at simply pointing out inaccuracies in logic and contradictions every now and then. Figure out what you're good at, and apply your reading skills so that you're not left behind by scum leading you in every different direction.
When someone brings up a lynch candidate, read the thread to determine who is willing to vote for that person. Read the case. If there isn't one, demand one. The day 3 lynch was horrible; it was just desperate and mostly simply led by scum.
So at this point you might say, "fuck you bugs I can read unlike you, what do I do next"
Any time someone makes a significant post (or hell, even small ones) and particularly vote posts, determine whether the post makes sense from a town perspective. Would a townie say what this person has said? Is what the person is saying beneficial for town? Does it seem like there is a hidden agenda, some sort of ulterior motive that isn't completely clear within the literal context of the post?
If you can't tell, then you need to start paying more attention to this particular person. Gather more information. Some things don't really give you much information at all; either scum or town could say them. Good scum will actually look very similar to townies. They'll just be pushing a different agenda, and so you will have to piece a lot of different information to determine that they are scum. Ciryandor in this game might have been hard to read a lot of the time. Perhaps bunneh too. However, when you catch them saying something that doesn't help town, you need note it. Then, once you have enough information to be confident of a read, you crush them. Vote them. Build a case, post it, and support it. Who knows, maybe you're right. If you're confident, pressure your opponent and force more mistakes.
At any point if you start becoming unsure or you think you are not pursuing scum, reevaluate again, reread, and then move on. If you are pressured about this later (the fact that you just abruptly dropped your case) just casually mention that you thought your target seemed more townish after the pressure. Sometimes you can trap scum by laying off a case when you are no longer suspicious, to see if scum will bandwagon it. Scum love easy, town-supported lynches.
Last thing:
STAY ACTIVE. I received something like 7 or 8 PMs from the 3 people I was coaching. Some of them were after the player died. I actually PMed you guys proactively hoping you would have questions, and I even sent you guys an outline of what a good townie should do. None of you did it. You actually did the opposite (seeing as a couple of you got lynched). Activity is imperative. If you're inactive, scum will jump all over that and use you as a red herring. They can simply stay more active than you in the thread, and then call you useless/detrimental to town when you actually do show up. They won't be lying, either, because your inactivity actually DOES make you useless. There are very few exceptions to this, which is why it's almost always in town's interests to start killing off lurkers and useless players. + Show Spoiler +of course once you KNOW people play a certain way, you have to be careful, but all of you were new, so this doesn't apply
Anyway, if anyone has questions go ahead and ask, although I'd bet that the vets of the forum are probably much better sources of information than I am.
|
GG Mafia, Your analysis post will be coming up as soon as I write it ^_^
|
Thanks for the pointers grey!
|
GreYMisT’s Remarks First off, GJ scumteam with your flawless victory! That being said, there were definatly stuff that could be improved on that I noticed from my perspective. Im not going to look at what town could have done to find you guys, but rather how you guys functioned as a team.
The Good: Obviously you won the game without losing a single mafia member. So that’s a plus. Ciryandor also managed to become “confirmed town” pretty much based on his activity level and the length of his posts. IMABUNNEH was also on some peoples town list, and despite everyone thinking near the end of the game that he and xsksc were scum, they somehow managed to avoid a lynch. Overall there was pretty good communitcation in the QT, and everyone was able to agree on a general plan. Mafia was also able to force a no lynch day 1, which is pretty kickass. Also, after night one you forced a LOT of discussion regarding the death of risk, which creates so much WIFOM (ie good for mafia).
Thing to improve upon: Just a few things I noticed that could have flowed a little better this game for the scum team. The biggest and most glaring hole to me is that until near the end of the game, no one on the mafia team actually talked to each other in thread, and only maybe once even mentioned each other’s names. It takes some focus to be able to notice this, but to the observant townie this is a HUGE red flag. In the future, use the QT to create a rough plan for how you are going to interact with each other during the game.
The next thing was the activity/townieness level of the other two mafia members: IMABUNNEH and xsksc. Imagine a scenario in which ciryandor dies and flips red. Suddenly the mafia now has absolutely no town influence, as it was disproportionately given to ciry. If ciryanor had died and flipped red, and then suddenly one of you had a dramatic pick up in activity, that would be something suspicious people might catch onto. This kinda goes under the “general plan” that you make at the start of a game of everyones roles in the thread.
The final thing is there was very little actual discussion of blue hunting in the QT that I could see. Mostly it was just based on gut feeling, which is ok to start with. But for a second imagine the kind of giggle fest you would be in if HoD had actually died the night you shot him, leaving ciryandor to manipulate the town to his pleasure. A red/Blue flag for skrammen would be on day 1 he was posting in a style that many people thought was scummy, but then he avoided the lynch and then immediately increased his activity/usefulness, but just to get himself out of that jam. If you know he is not mafia, and yet expressing that behavior, write him down as a blue candidate.
One super minor thing is you guys started to say “well we know there is a medic.” Or something along those lines. You actually don’t for sure know that, unless you somehow know that the mafia sent in their kill, which you couldn’t unless you were mafia! Gasp! Its very small, but some players (Read WBG) will attack you for making such assumptions. Its just easier not to bother with them.
Overall very well played. If you have any questions please feel free to PM me or ask them in the thread. Im sure our other coaches would have some remarks as well.
|
United States22154 Posts
On November 13 2011 15:56 GreYMisT wrote: The next thing was the activity/townieness level of the other two mafia members: IMABUNNEH and xsksc. Imagine a scenario in which ciryandor dies and flips red. Suddenly the mafia now has absolutely no town influence, as it was disproportionately given to ciry. If ciryanor had died and flipped red, and then suddenly one of you had a dramatic pick up in activity, that would be something suspicious people might catch onto. This kinda goes under the “general plan” that you make at the start of a game of everyones roles in the thread.
This is absolutely key, so I'm marking it. Often times scumteams are carried by a single scum player who grabs enough presence to control the game flow, and the team disintegrates if that player dies. The thing is, grabbing presence, more often than not leads to that player's eventual death, since he had to stick his neck out there. An ideal scumteam would have *all* its members grabbing influence, making it almost impossible to lynch any of them. As scum you first fear is the lynch, how are you going to defend yourself from it if you aren't actively influencing it? Realize that you can only argue your way out of say a cop check, or some awesome town analysis, if you have an already established presence, otherwise you *will* be lynched, and put your team at a deficit.
|
One super minor thing is you guys started to say “well we know there is a medic.” Or something along those lines. You actually don’t for sure know that, unless you somehow know that the mafia sent in their kill, which you couldn’t unless you were mafia! Gasp! Its very small, but some players (Read WBG) will attack you for making such assumptions. Its just easier not to bother with them. I actually checked and if I recall only one or possibly two people didn't post at all during that night, so I kinda assumed somebody had sent it in, but I was aware that we didn't necessarily have one. Not shooting day 2 seemed like something that wouldn't help scum at all though. Also me not getting shot gave me a pretty good idea that there was a medic present, since I knew I had to be on the "to-kill" list, and I sure as hell wasn't getting lynched.
|
On November 13 2011 17:16 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:Show nested quote +One super minor thing is you guys started to say “well we know there is a medic.” Or something along those lines. You actually don’t for sure know that, unless you somehow know that the mafia sent in their kill, which you couldn’t unless you were mafia! Gasp! Its very small, but some players (Read WBG) will attack you for making such assumptions. Its just easier not to bother with them. I actually checked and if I recall only one or possibly two people didn't post at all during that night, so I kinda assumed somebody had sent it in, but I was aware that we didn't necessarily have one. Not shooting day 2 seemed like something that wouldn't help scum at all though. Also me not getting shot gave me a pretty good idea that there was a medic present, since I knew I had to be on the "to-kill" list, and I sure as hell wasn't getting lynched.
again its just a small thing, but you can use things like that as indicators for analysis.
|
On November 13 2011 17:16 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:Show nested quote +One super minor thing is you guys started to say “well we know there is a medic.” Or something along those lines. You actually don’t for sure know that, unless you somehow know that the mafia sent in their kill, which you couldn’t unless you were mafia! Gasp! Its very small, but some players (Read WBG) will attack you for making such assumptions. Its just easier not to bother with them. I actually checked and if I recall only one or possibly two people didn't post at all during that night, so I kinda assumed somebody had sent it in, but I was aware that we didn't necessarily have one. Not shooting day 2 seemed like something that wouldn't help scum at all though. Also me not getting shot gave me a pretty good idea that there was a medic present, since I knew I had to be on the "to-kill" list, and I sure as hell wasn't getting lynched.
Don't assume you know what scum know.
Good scum will punish you for that.
You could fake something or do it deliberately but I've gotten flak for that (though I don't think it's a big problem if you've planned it out)
|
I recommend that all the people who were endgamed read the observer QT linked in the endgame post. Sometimes people post intelligent stuff in there. also my post got quoted by GMarshal! /Swoon.
|
Good game guys. I think I lost it a bit at the end, I was usually in a hurry the last ingame day, and it led a few of my posts to be a bit too obvious I think, I was probably lucky not to get the vote turned onto me if I'm honest.
Reading the Observer QT gave me more information than the game did! :D
All in all had fun, learned some things, and somehow avoided being asked anything real for the majority of the game. Looking forward to maybe playing another one soon
|
|
|
|