Another week of triumph and despair lays behind us, the next one is already dawning upon us. In Code S, the second group stage has been wrapped up, sending us off into the all-deciding playoff matches, where explosive quarterfinal pairings are waiting to duel. The SSL Premier Division is almost at a similar point: The group stage is going to be finished this week, finally revealing the four surviving players, who will battle for the title. The less fortunate players, of course, will closely eye the matches in SSL Challenge to see who they’ll hopefully have to fight next year to keep their spots in SSL.
.1
Code S: The Final Eight
The second group stage ended with a good day for Splyce last week, as both TY and Stats were able to advance into the quarterfinals, joining their team mate Solar to complete the trio. With all three of them competing in different matches, an all-Splyce Grand Final is on the table of possibilities now, which would obviously be a massive success for the organisation. Another fact of note is that Rogue, Stats, ByuN and TY are in their second consecutive quarterfinals—the third for Stats and TY—and while this is a showing of consistency, they all lost their last match in the Round of 8, pressuring them to perform better this time.
The first of our four quarterfinal duels might be the most lopsided one on paper: No one even knows how sOs made it to this point, as 2017 hasn’t been a fantastic year for the Million Dollar Man at all so far, and all his victories this season came to us as a surprise. In a very sOs-way, he sneaked himself into this tournament stage through close series and unpredictable stratagems, which makes his status as one of the Top 8 quite frail. His opponent Solar on the other hand—although he did lose to the ever-inconsistent Patience in the first group stage—cut through some of the best Terran players Korea has to offer to reach the Round of 8, while also raking in some good ZvP wins in SSL Premier. Both haven’t met since March 2017 (a 3-1 victory for Solar), but looking at their performances since then, not much has really changed: Solar looks to be the favourite, with sOs being in the underdog role—which, in a twisted kind of way, is probably better for him anyway: He has to switch into insanity-mode to continue his run.
Stats and Rogue duel in the second series, with Rogue especially craving success. The Zerg had a solid year and is nowadays counted among the Top 3 Zerg players in the world—contending for the number one position—, but he lacks the one thing a top-class player needs the most to base his standing on: A Korean title. Yes, his triumph over at IEM Shanghai certainly underlined his excellent form, but everyone knows that the prestige of a GSL win overshadows any other title. Stats already collected one of those in Season 1, but taking a second one in the same year would make the stuff of legend out of him—especially if he could also claim the SSL title at the same time—, and give him an excellent position going into BlizzCon later in the year. That said, Rogue looks extremely dangerous against Protoss at the moment, as he can play out the match-up in multiple deadly ways, mixing his variability with the diligent preparation we’ve come to love him for. The Jin Air Zerg is in good position to actually overcome the quarterfinals this time.
TvT extravagance is expecting us in the third series of the quarterfinals, as the Machine INnoVation meets the One-Man Army ByuN—the two players leading the Aligulac rankings by quite some distance. With INnoVation having largely fixed his mirror match-up issues, we can look forward to a close battle between the two Terrans, with all strategies and compositions imaginable being possibly fielded. It’s hard to imagine the macro-monster INnoVation as the aggressor in these matches, with that role perfectly befitting ByuN, who just cannot betray his Prime genes even after all those years. The INnoVation hype has cooled down a bit after his various losses in SSL, but the Machine is still hot enough to be counted as a close favourite here—very close.
Whoever wins the battle of Terrans, he’ll have a more than tough opponent in the semi-finals, as either TY or Dark will make war upon them. In their last duel at Shanghai, TY overcame Dark with a solid 2-0 score—but did he set the stage for a sweet revenge for the Zerg player, or was it simply a precedent for the future? Their forms against each other’s races are statistically so very close, they practically make no difference: Both are absolutely deadly, though not without weak points. Where to find those, is a question the players will have to answer, which is made ever more difficult by the fact, that none of them have actually played a TvZ so far this season. It’ll be first one, and one of the most important in their careers. Victory could give them the world.
.2
SSL Premier: Press 'WIN' to Continue
Only three tickets into the playoffs remain, as Stats’ victory over Classic last week already secured a Top 4 spot for the Splyce player. Four potential title contenders are under pressure on the last day of the group stage to advance alongside Stats—who himself looks primed to lock his first place and thus advance directly into the Grand Finals—, but as things go in SSL we might be in for an exciting ride over the finish line. While Dear, who got himself into an excellent position through his win last week, has a winnable challenge in herO and thus looks to finally enter another playoff stage, things look direr for Classic: He’ll face his former team mate INnoVation, with the winner of the duel earning a playoff spot as their prize. The fourth man in the race is Dark, whose loss to Dear last week severely hurt his chances at advancing. The Zerg faces a tough opponent in the already eliminated Solar, which’ll test his ZvZ abilities under high pressure once more. At least his success against soO in Code S under similar circumstances might boost his confidence for this fight.
Depending on the status and format of SSL next year, these last matches are also important for the players at the bottom of the ranking. ByuL’s first season victory against aLive last week might prove to be very fortunate indeed, as it has enabled him to potentially claim a spot in the next Fast Lane event, instead of getting straight up eliminated from the Premier Division. Now, a victory over Stats would come close to a small miracle, but who would’ve thought that such hopes even would exist at the end of such a disastrous season for the Zerg player?
.3
SSL Challenge: Close as it gets
Last, but by no means least, a quick look at the state of SSL Challenge: With the fate of SSL and its’ format next year still hanging in the balance, honour, glory and a small prize purse is all the players fight for right now. This hasn’t resulted in lacklustre series by any means, though. On the contrary, what might have been one-sided sweeps—considering the match-ups—became quite long and drawn-out series last Saturday, with the underdogs coming close to produce some more of those upsets (in fact, Bunny actually took out favourite Rogue, keeping up his SSL consistency), which have become a trademark of the competition in SSL. ByuN, soO and Bunny now dominate the top of the ranking—for whatever that may be worth in the end.
Solar sOs could go either way. Both are top 5 most inconsistant.
Dark will beat TY 3-1. Both are the best lategame players of their races, and both are the rare kind of player that want to go full lategame. But it will be a repeat of the 2016 SSL season 2 ro8
Rogue will probably beat Stats, and Inno will trash ByuN
On August 29 2017 03:06 Fango wrote: Solar sOs could go either way. Both are top 5 most inconsistant.
Dark will beat TY 3-1. Both are the best lategame players of their races, and both are the rare kind of player that want to go full lategame. But it will be a repeat of the 2016 SSL season 2 ro8
Rogue will probably beat Stats, and Inno will trash ByuN
Agree with most of this, except TY vs Dark. Dark's ZvT was very unimpressive at IEM Shanghai and he seems to have put a lot of work into his ZvZ as of late on top of that. Also, Dark has to play Dear in SSL two days after his GSL match, so the contrast in TY's race+style vs Dear's race+style is definitely gonna hurt his individual preparation.
On August 29 2017 03:06 Fango wrote: Solar sOs could go either way. Both are top 5 most inconsistant.
Dark will beat TY 3-1. Both are the best lategame players of their races, and both are the rare kind of player that want to go full lategame. But it will be a repeat of the 2016 SSL season 2 ro8
Rogue will probably beat Stats, and Inno will trash ByuN
Agree with most of this, except TY vs Dark. Dark's ZvT was very unimpressive at IEM Shanghai and he seems to have put a lot of work into his ZvZ as of late on top of that. Also, Dark has to play Dear in SSL two days after his GSL match, so the contrast in TY's race+style vs Dear's race+style is definitely gonna hurt his individual preparation.
He'll probably focus more on GSL, it's his first Ro8 there and in preparation formats he always seems extra prepared for Innovation and TY especially.
On August 29 2017 03:06 Fango wrote: Solar sOs could go either way. Both are top 5 most inconsistant.
Dark will beat TY 3-1. Both are the best lategame players of their races, and both are the rare kind of player that want to go full lategame. But it will be a repeat of the 2016 SSL season 2 ro8
Rogue will probably beat Stats, and Inno will trash ByuN
Agree with most of this, except TY vs Dark. Dark's ZvT was very unimpressive at IEM Shanghai and he seems to have put a lot of work into his ZvZ as of late on top of that. Also, Dark has to play Dear in SSL two days after his GSL match, so the contrast in TY's race+style vs Dear's race+style is definitely gonna hurt his individual preparation.
Dark will focus on the GSL match, at least until it's over. GSL is way more important than SSL in terms of money and WCS. In order to get an extra 375 points, he has to beat both Dear and Classic in SSL. Whereas if he beats TY he goes up by 700 and probably garantees his blizzcon spot.
You're right he got trashed at IEM, but I remember him saying beforehand that he only had 2 hours of sleep before or something. He smacked down Inno around in SSL not long after, which redeemed him imo.
On August 29 2017 03:06 Fango wrote: Solar sOs could go either way. Both are top 5 most inconsistant.
Dark will beat TY 3-1. Both are the best lategame players of their races, and both are the rare kind of player that want to go full lategame. But it will be a repeat of the 2016 SSL season 2 ro8
Rogue will probably beat Stats, and Inno will trash ByuN
Agree with most of this, except TY vs Dark. Dark's ZvT was very unimpressive at IEM Shanghai and he seems to have put a lot of work into his ZvZ as of late on top of that. Also, Dark has to play Dear in SSL two days after his GSL match, so the contrast in TY's race+style vs Dear's race+style is definitely gonna hurt his individual preparation.
He'll probably focus more on GSL, it's his first Ro8 there and in preparation formats he always seems extra prepared for Innovation and TY especially.
Funny, I was thinking the opposite. Since he already won SSL last year and all his opponents are guaranteed to be Protoss players, practicing ZvP would seem to have a larger potential utility. Also TY and Inno are both way more predictable than Dear, which would mean less specific practice time is necessary. Though I suppose I'm not factoring in the relative worth of SSL and GSL, which only complicates this further. If Dark's goal isn't necessarily to win but rather get as many WCS points as possible, the calculations shift accordingly.
Regardless, it's an extremely difficult balancing act made even more so by the fact that his closest practice partners for ZvP and ZvT, Classic and INnoVation/ByuN, aren't gonna help him since they are future opponents. I fully expect him to lose one if not both of his matches.
I do wonder though, in the hypothetical scenario that Dark beats TY and Inno beats ByuN, Inno vs Dark will be the semis. Would ByuN help Dark practice ZvT (since they are on record as being best friends) against INnoVation-senpai?
On August 29 2017 03:06 Fango wrote: Solar sOs could go either way. Both are top 5 most inconsistant.
Dark will beat TY 3-1. Both are the best lategame players of their races, and both are the rare kind of player that want to go full lategame. But it will be a repeat of the 2016 SSL season 2 ro8
Rogue will probably beat Stats, and Inno will trash ByuN
Agree with most of this, except TY vs Dark. Dark's ZvT was very unimpressive at IEM Shanghai and he seems to have put a lot of work into his ZvZ as of late on top of that. Also, Dark has to play Dear in SSL two days after his GSL match, so the contrast in TY's race+style vs Dear's race+style is definitely gonna hurt his individual preparation.
Dark will focus on the GSL match, at least until it's over. GSL is way more important than SSL in terms of money and WCS. In order to get an extra 375 points, he has to beat both Dear and Classic in SSL. Whereas if he beats TY he goes up by 700 and probably garantees his blizzcon spot.
You're right he got trashed at IEM, but I remember him saying beforehand that he only had 2 hours of sleep before or something. He smacked down Inno around in SSL not long after, which redeemed him imo.
Pretty safe to say that he is qualified for Blizzcon now.
Even assuming he doesn't get any point from now to Blizzcon, the easiest way for Dark to get out of top 8 Korea standing is all the things below actually happen together: - Solar/sOs/Rogue win GSL (which make them automatically qualified) - Byun get at least 1300 points (3 ways to do that: get to top 2 GSL OR get to top 4 GSL and top 4 Super Tournament OR win Super Tournament) - herO get at least 450 points (meaning at least top 8 Super Tournament)
Yeah, I know that everything could happen, but the chance here must smaller than 1% I guess.
On August 29 2017 03:06 Fango wrote: Solar sOs could go either way. Both are top 5 most inconsistant.
Dark will beat TY 3-1. Both are the best lategame players of their races, and both are the rare kind of player that want to go full lategame. But it will be a repeat of the 2016 SSL season 2 ro8
Rogue will probably beat Stats, and Inno will trash ByuN
Agree with most of this, except TY vs Dark. Dark's ZvT was very unimpressive at IEM Shanghai and he seems to have put a lot of work into his ZvZ as of late on top of that. Also, Dark has to play Dear in SSL two days after his GSL match, so the contrast in TY's race+style vs Dear's race+style is definitely gonna hurt his individual preparation.
Dark will focus on the GSL match, at least until it's over. GSL is way more important than SSL in terms of money and WCS. In order to get an extra 375 points, he has to beat both Dear and Classic in SSL. Whereas if he beats TY he goes up by 700 and probably garantees his blizzcon spot.
You're right he got trashed at IEM, but I remember him saying beforehand that he only had 2 hours of sleep before or something. He smacked down Inno around in SSL not long after, which redeemed him imo.
Pretty safe to say that he is qualified for Blizzcon now.
Even assuming he doesn't get any point from now to Blizzcon, the easiest way for Dark to get out of top 8 Korea standing is all the things below actually happen together: - Solar/sOs/Rogue win GSL (which make them automatically qualified) - Byun get at least 1300 points (3 ways to do that: get to top 2 GSL OR get to top 4 GSL and top 4 Super Tournament OR win Super Tournament) - herO get at least 450 points (meaning at least top 8 Super Tournament)
Yeah, I know that everything could happen, but the chance here must smaller than 1% I guess.
There's a few scenarios where it could happen. An sOs/Solar/Rogue vs ByuN GSL finals for example could make it likely.
Basically if Solar/ByuN/sOs/Rogue/Maru/herO dominate GSL or Super Tournament he can easily fall out. And Super tournament is the most bracket-luck determined tournament around, it's not something to rely on.
Plus there's more money and viewership available with GSL, as well as direct seeding into the next GSL should he reach ro4. It just makes sense for him to focus on his TY match over the Dear one right now.
On August 29 2017 03:06 Fango wrote: Solar sOs could go either way. Both are top 5 most inconsistant.
Dark will beat TY 3-1. Both are the best lategame players of their races, and both are the rare kind of player that want to go full lategame. But it will be a repeat of the 2016 SSL season 2 ro8
Rogue will probably beat Stats, and Inno will trash ByuN
Agree with most of this, except TY vs Dark. Dark's ZvT was very unimpressive at IEM Shanghai and he seems to have put a lot of work into his ZvZ as of late on top of that. Also, Dark has to play Dear in SSL two days after his GSL match, so the contrast in TY's race+style vs Dear's race+style is definitely gonna hurt his individual preparation.
Dark will focus on the GSL match, at least until it's over. GSL is way more important than SSL in terms of money and WCS. In order to get an extra 375 points, he has to beat both Dear and Classic in SSL. Whereas if he beats TY he goes up by 700 and probably garantees his blizzcon spot.
You're right he got trashed at IEM, but I remember him saying beforehand that he only had 2 hours of sleep before or something. He smacked down Inno around in SSL not long after, which redeemed him imo.
Pretty safe to say that he is qualified for Blizzcon now.
Even assuming he doesn't get any point from now to Blizzcon, the easiest way for Dark to get out of top 8 Korea standing is all the things below actually happen together: - Solar/sOs/Rogue win GSL (which make them automatically qualified) - Byun get at least 1300 points (3 ways to do that: get to top 2 GSL OR get to top 4 GSL and top 4 Super Tournament OR win Super Tournament) - herO get at least 450 points (meaning at least top 8 Super Tournament)
Yeah, I know that everything could happen, but the chance here must smaller than 1% I guess.
There's a few scenarios where it could happen. An sOs/Solar/Rogue vs ByuN GSL finals for example could make it likely.
Basically if Solar/ByuN/sOs/Rogue/Maru/herO dominate GSL or Super Tournament he can easily fall out. And Super tournament is the most bracket-luck determined tournament around, it's not something to rely on.
Plus there's more money and viewership available with GSL, as well as direct seeding into the next GSL should he reach ro4. It just makes sense for him to focus on his TY match over the Dear one right now.
On August 29 2017 03:06 Fango wrote: Solar sOs could go either way. Both are top 5 most inconsistant.
Dark will beat TY 3-1. Both are the best lategame players of their races, and both are the rare kind of player that want to go full lategame. But it will be a repeat of the 2016 SSL season 2 ro8
Rogue will probably beat Stats, and Inno will trash ByuN
Agree with most of this, except TY vs Dark. Dark's ZvT was very unimpressive at IEM Shanghai and he seems to have put a lot of work into his ZvZ as of late on top of that. Also, Dark has to play Dear in SSL two days after his GSL match, so the contrast in TY's race+style vs Dear's race+style is definitely gonna hurt his individual preparation.
Dark will focus on the GSL match, at least until it's over. GSL is way more important than SSL in terms of money and WCS. In order to get an extra 375 points, he has to beat both Dear and Classic in SSL. Whereas if he beats TY he goes up by 700 and probably garantees his blizzcon spot.
You're right he got trashed at IEM, but I remember him saying beforehand that he only had 2 hours of sleep before or something. He smacked down Inno around in SSL not long after, which redeemed him imo.
Pretty safe to say that he is qualified for Blizzcon now.
Even assuming he doesn't get any point from now to Blizzcon, the easiest way for Dark to get out of top 8 Korea standing is all the things below actually happen together: - Solar/sOs/Rogue win GSL (which make them automatically qualified) - Byun get at least 1300 points (3 ways to do that: get to top 2 GSL OR get to top 4 GSL and top 4 Super Tournament OR win Super Tournament) - herO get at least 450 points (meaning at least top 8 Super Tournament)
Yeah, I know that everything could happen, but the chance here must smaller than 1% I guess.
There's a few scenarios where it could happen. An sOs/Solar/Rogue vs ByuN GSL finals for example could make it likely.
Basically if Solar/ByuN/sOs/Rogue/Maru/herO dominate GSL or Super Tournament he can easily fall out. And Super tournament is the most bracket-luck determined tournament around, it's not something to rely on.
Plus there's more money and viewership available with GSL, as well as direct seeding into the next GSL should he reach ro4. It just makes sense for him to focus on his TY match over the Dear one right now.
I agree with you about Dark should focus on GSL. About the other scenarios you said, I cannot see any scenarios "he can easilly fall out". Can you point out a scenario more specific (how many should them earn) which different than the one I point out (you can use this link to point it out: http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2017_StarCraft_II_World_Championship_Series_Korea/Standings) /ST
The most likely event that Dark would worry about is ByuN, and then any of sOs/Rogue/Solar, being the GSL final, that could potentially put Dark directly down to 8th in the WCS standings. Then all it could take would be a mix up of Solar/Rogue/sOs/herO etc getting to the finals of super tournament.
(this is all assuming Dark does trash from now on and fails in the remaining GSL/SSL2 matches). If Dark beats TY, or gets to the finals of SSL, then I'm fairly certain his spot is garanteed
So hyped for byun vs inovation. That will be a fun one. I think inovation is slightly favored to win since his deffense has looked realy solid recently but theres defending vs everyone else and than defending vs byun and those two things are very different.
There's a pattern in starcraft 2 that no fan can deny, which is that Protoss has the edge on Terran, which has the edge on Zerg, which has the edge on protoss. Balance has been finally achieved, in this sort of ring around the rosy fashion.