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[MSL] All things must come to an end

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DeadVessel
Profile Blog Joined April 2006
United States6269 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-07-20 16:34:30
July 20 2008 10:14 GMT
#1
[image loading]


Every so often a darkhorse makes it to the finals of the MSL. There was Kal in S4 ,Bisu in S1 and Mind in S3. All 3 of these players were cast aside as whims and flukes. Then Bisu 3-0ed sAviOr, Kal suddenly became one of the hottest new players despite losing 3-1 to Jaedong, and Mind took down: sAviOr, oov, and finally Bisu in the finals.

This year there is a new underdog, a player most had little, if any, respect for before now. Many didn't expect fOrGG to take down Sea, Flash, or Kal who are all powerhouses in their respective races. fOrGG 2-0ed Sea (45-25 vs T), went 3-2 with Kal (25-16 vs T), and finished 3-1 with Flash (30-14 vs T).

But even with these impressive victories, fOrGG has yet to be tested TvZ in this MSL having only had Terran and Protoss opponents. Statistically fOrGG shows great promise against Zerg having gone 5-2 vs Z in 2008. But sadly those that have followed his TvZ will know that despite having macro that can compete with iloveoov, he lacks management of his army. This has proved problematic in many of his matches (see his game vs YarnC). This just won't fly vs a player of Jaedong's caliber (50-29 vs T).

Hopefully, fOrGG has stepped up his game now that he has to play the #1 Zerg in progaming. With his impressive play against Flash we are given hope that since he has improved his once mediocre TvT he has also improved his TvZ.

Now to discuss the man many expect to 3-0 fOrGG, the hottest Zerg right now, Lee Jae Dong! There isn't much to say about Jaedong that can't be seen by just watching one of his games. He is excellent at mutlitasking, has incredible play in all 3 of his match ups, and occasionally shows how creative he can by showcasing some unique builds.

Statistically you would expect Jaedong to demolish fOrGG but lately his ZvT has shown some problems. While his ZvP has been impeccable he has been known to drop the ball vs T in recent games. He seems to have snapped out of that with his 3-1 victory over Hwasin but he has proven to be far from immune to creative builds (see his game vs Casy on Hwarangdo) and can sometimes fall apart unexpectedly. Regardless of these occasional issues Jaedong is still the clear favorite in this series.

+ Show Spoiler [The Journey So Far] +
[image loading]




LosingID8 wrote:
I predict ForGG to win the finals. People have doubted ForGG this entire tournament, but he's been upsetting people left and right. His Achilles Heel was his TvT, but in this MSL alone he beat Sea[Shield] 2-0 where he was previously 0-6 against him, and he took a Bo5 against Flash 3-1. Other than TvT, ForGG's greatest weakness is that he has very little experience in Bo5's. But the series against Flash shows that ForGG is an expert at analyzing his opponent's playstyle and preparing excellent counter-builds to exploit their tendencies. This is especially relevant as ForGG and Jaedong are teammates. If he was able to destroy Flash so easily, who's to say he can't do the same with Jaedong? My prediction: ForGG 3 - 2 Jaedong.


thedeadhaji wrote:
I expect at least one game from each player where they use a semi-cheese build, just from the fact that they are teammates, know each other in and out, and both have a match history peppered with cheese-ish openings when you least expect it. If Jaedong can force a multitasking style game on fOrGG, he's clearly the favorite. However, if fOrGG can contain the game to one focal point throughout its progression, his improved micro and godly-as-always macro should take him a long ways. I do hope that there will be at least one straight up game where Jaedong goes 3 hatch mutas and fOrGG goes 1 rax fe, because Tl.net will see the ridiculousness of fOrGG's army going out to kill Jaedong's 3rd gas while having another full force to defend. fOrGG has the potential to reinvent the Terran race as we recognize it today, and while most of you will dismiss these comments of a biased Lecaf fan, I will urge you to pay close attention to the beginning of something potential special


Chill wrote:
ForGG beat Flash by doing his homework; he guessed right on Flash's common builds and punished him for it three times. Unfortunately for him, Jaedong's style seems to be a little more resilient than Flash's (Jaedong vs Lomo @ Katrina anyone?) and will most likely not fall to prepared strategies. Although Colosseum could cause a few problems, I still expect Jaedong to steam roll ForGG in straight sets.

Jaedong 3-0 ForGG


FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:
Flash lost to fOrGG because he was inflexible during the series. However, Jaedong is adaptive and clever and he's not going to lose. Jaedong will win 3-1, he'll lose the first game or the game on Tiamat, either way he'll win 3-1.




[image loading]


Set 1: Colosseum


Statistically Colosseum favors Terran (5-2 vs Z) and it seems Zergs tend to try unorthodox builds here (Guardians from Calm when he played Mind, 2 hatch lurker from in the Jaedong vs Hwasi match) due to the map imbalance. I don't know if this will play out in fOrGG's favor or Jaedong's but considering how well Jaedong executed his 2 hatch lurker build vs Hwasin I can't see fOrGG handling this very well due to lacking the micro mechanics that Hwasin has and Hwasin still succumbed to this build. One problem that Jaedong may face if he decides to take the usual 3rd base as he did vs Hwasin is fOrGG abusing the two entrances, forcing to Jaedong to give up map control to defend both entrances. But if Jaedong takes one of the naturals with 1 ramp this shouldn't be a problem. I see Jaedong taking the game in a straight match or an unorthodox match. I can't really imagine fOrGG trying an all-in or cheese here so it will be upon Jaedong whether the game deviates from standard play. Either way Jaedong will take this set.

(Z)Jaedong 1-0 (T)fOrGG


Set 2: Othello


Othello is quite possibly one of the most balanced maps in all of progaming right. Statistically it is 15-9 TvZ but many of the games consisted of one player that was much better than his opponent dominating the other player (Hwasin vs MinGu, Sea vs Hyuk, Mind vs Hyun, RuBy vs ZerO), so it's not really a question of imbalance more of who's the better player or who has the better strategy. The last game we saw of fOrGG on here he opened up with a very aggressive bunker rush vs YarnC then proceeded to dominate him with macro despite handling his units very poorly. Jaedong has also won on Othello against Hwasin so both players are experienced here. I believe fOrGG will win if he has a creative build to use but if he decides to take it into a macro/standard TvZ he will get demolished.

I believe this set can go either way but most likely in Jaedong's favor.

(Z)Jaedong 2-0 (T)fOrGG


Set 3: Tiamat


Tiamat is relatively new and only has 4 TvZ games on it (4-0 in favor of T) so balance is not really known at this point for this map but it seems like it heavily favors Terran. In the Hwasin vs Jaedong series both opted for standard play and Jaedong was taken down in short order. Jaedong's play in that game left a lot to be desired so hopefully he is better prepared for his game vs fOrGG on this map. I believe Jaedong will decide to go standard play on this map but from fOrGG anything is possible, a cheese or all-in or standard play is all possible from him. Either way I think fOrGG will take this down just because it is very strong in favor of Terran.

(Z)Jaedong 2-1 (T)fOrGG


Set 4: Athena


Athena, like Tiamat is a new map with very few games played on it (4 games for TvZ with 2-2 as the result). Jaedong 4 pooled Hwasin here so we don't know whether he will do another cheese against fOrGG or go for standard play but I think it will go to Jaedong either way and end the series making Jaedong your current MSL champion.

(Z)Jaedong 3-1 (T)fOrGG


Note this final prediction is written for in the event the series does go to the 5th set.

Set 5: Colosseum


Assuming that fOrGG is able to make the series 2-2 and take it to the 5th and final set, I believe it will go similar to how the first set on this map went but with the possibility of a cheese or some kind of all in from fOrGG. Either way Jaedong takes this set down and win the Arena MSL finals.

(Z)Jaedong 3-2 (T)fOrGG




Final Notes:

Whatever the outcome I think this series will be very exciting for the fans and the players. Both players are playing very well now so the games should be of a high quality and very entertaining.

Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy the Arena MSL Finals!



Thanks to Plexa for editing and ideas.
Thanks to Smurg for the map line-up image and editing.
Thanks to Chill for ideas and editing.
Thanks to pachi for the banners.
Thanks to fomos.kr for the pictures of Jaedong/fOrGG.
fredd
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
Estonia256 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-07-20 10:18:07
July 20 2008 10:17 GMT
#2
ForGG looks rather retarded on the main banner
sup
disciple
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
9070 Posts
July 20 2008 10:36 GMT
#3
On July 20 2008 19:17 fredd wrote:
ForGG looks rather retarded on the main banner

Administrator"I'm a big deal." - ixmike88
Kyuki
Profile Joined February 2008
Sweden1867 Posts
July 20 2008 10:40 GMT
#4
Nice writeup, good read =)

I think it'll be a 3-1 victory for JD aswell. Might loose to a sunkenbreak, but tbh... It might aswell be a 3-0, because I think JD has learned and adapt EXTREMLY well to cheese/rushes that if you dont execute it perfectly, you're going to loose, and considering forGGs missmicro at times, I have a hard time to belive he'll make it out with even 1 game.

That's giving him to little credit though, because ForGG has been a favourite of mine since he beat Sea in this MSL, and has improved shitloads. Even if he looses here I think he's made a really strong name for himself.

I expect some good games
Mada Mada Dane
Spenguin
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
Australia3316 Posts
July 20 2008 10:42 GMT
#5
On July 20 2008 19:36 disciple wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2008 19:17 fredd wrote:
(T)fOrGG looks rather retarded on the main banner



Nice write up.

I hate you (T)fOrGG I HATE YOU!
< TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #46 > I came for the Brood War, I stayed for the people.
StrikeFLOW
Profile Joined July 2008
United States369 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-07-20 10:53:47
July 20 2008 10:53 GMT
#6
I cannot agree more with the predictions.

(Z)Jaedong will roll (T)fOrGG like he just rolled (P)Shuttle

also

On July 20 2008 19:17 fredd wrote:
ForGG looks rather retarded on the main banner

"Life is a dream from which we all must wake before we can dream again"
Liquid`Ret
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
Netherlands4511 Posts
July 20 2008 10:57 GMT
#7
Hwasin only succumbed to the 2 hatch build because he didnt kill the hatch with his first group of m&m and stupidly lost his units, I doubt jaedong will use that build again.
Team Liquid
3nickma
Profile Joined November 2007
Denmark1510 Posts
July 20 2008 11:12 GMT
#8
Read my signature?
L E E J A E D O N G ! <3
Klive5ive
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
United Kingdom6056 Posts
July 20 2008 11:43 GMT
#9
fOrGG has something to prove which makes him very dangerous. He looked very competent in the best of 5 against Flash, showing no nerves at all.
I expect fOrGG to try a few all-ins, Zerg has less options in this regard but I still expect a surprise or two from JD.
Neither has played much ZvT lately either.
Add to the mix the fact they are teammates and you have yourself a FANTASTIC match-up.

This could be a real classic and I hope it lives up to expectations.
Don't hate the player - Hate the game
SingletonWilliam
Profile Joined April 2008
United States664 Posts
July 20 2008 11:52 GMT
#10
ForGG doesn't have a chance. The sooner you give up hope the less it will sting,
Aegraen #1 Fan!
arb
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Noobville17921 Posts
July 20 2008 11:59 GMT
#11
i seem to remember people saying July didnt have a chance either..

ForGG 3-2 eZ
Artillery spawned from the forges of Hell
Nyovne
Profile Joined March 2006
Netherlands19135 Posts
July 20 2008 12:02 GMT
#12
GO JARED GOOOOOOO!!!!! <3
ModeratorFor remember, that in the end, some are born to live, others born to die. I belong to those last, born to burn, born to cry. For I shall remain alone... forsaken.
mish_ka
Profile Joined June 2008
Bulgaria26 Posts
July 20 2008 12:41 GMT
#13
I hope for forgg to win this. go go, macro terran
Playful as a pussycat
SilverSkyLark
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Philippines8437 Posts
July 20 2008 12:43 GMT
#14
ForGG without doubt did his homework against Flash, he knew that Flash was going for a macro oriented play and he knew that he can't match Flash's macro so he cheesed/proxied Flash. Jaedong has some pretty good numbers on his ZvT. The only players that were able to show some decent macro war against JaeDong were Flash and Hwasin. ForGG didn't play Hwasin so we can't judge if ForGG is somewhere in Hwasins caliber. ForGG proxied Flash and I think game 3 became a macro war where ForGG lost and from there, I think ForGG needs to shape up his macro or at least his army control. I think ForGG knows that he has two ways to win, cheese/proxy JaeDong or pull out some Godlike macro and army control to win him his MSL.

Jaedong is a ZvT monster no doubt. His macro and multitasking is somewhat unmatchable, I pissed my pants when I watched his games against Hwasin and it somewhat tells me that any Terran that decides to go to a macro war against Jaedong will lose. I also think that Jaedong will anticipate proxy or cheese against ForGG since he knows that he will win if ForGG macros against him or anything.


I'm rooting for the underdog here as always, ForGG 3-2.
"If i lost an arm, I would play w3." -IntoTheWow || "Member of Hyuk Hyuk Hyuk cafe. He's the next Jaedong, baby!"
meegrean
Profile Joined May 2008
Thailand7699 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-07-20 13:16:34
July 20 2008 13:15 GMT
#15
Jaedong 3-0

On July 20 2008 19:17 fredd wrote:
ForGG looks rather retarded on the main banner

Yep.
Brood War loyalist
alffla
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Hong Kong20321 Posts
July 20 2008 13:16 GMT
#16
JAEDGON FTWWWW ZERGS FIGHTING DONT LET PURE MACRO TERRAN WIN MSL nevarrrr!

great write up i can't wait for this finals! :D
Graphicssavior[gm] : What is a “yawn” rape ;; Masumune - It was the year of the pig for those fucking defilers. Chill - A clinic you say? okum: SC without Korean yelling is like porn without sex. konamix: HAPPY BIRTHDAY MOMMY!
ZenDeX
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
Philippines2916 Posts
July 20 2008 13:20 GMT
#17
sigh.....

(Z)July-(P)BeSt series > (T)Never-(Z)Jaedong series

Anyway, GO JAEDONG!!
tre2ettsexsju
Profile Joined May 2008
Sweden248 Posts
July 20 2008 13:25 GMT
#18
I will cry blood if Jaedong loses ;< Hope to see some great games, can't wait!
Thanks for the nice write-up :>

Were Athena and Tiamat in the latest update of kespa maps? Anyway, I like Andromeda more ;<
but Colosseum is great so overall I'm happy!
Axidboy
Profile Joined April 2007
Latvia95 Posts
July 20 2008 13:40 GMT
#19
I'm with LoosingID on this final and i deffinetly don't see forgg getting steam rolled. When two team mates play throw statistics out, everyone expected Iris to get steam rolled in shinan 3 vs savior and that went on to become epic series. I would expect close games, with presure being on Jaedong as he is clear favorite here, and being clear favorite against player who knows your play insideout is tricky....
Fakaz
Roffles *
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Pitcairn19291 Posts
July 20 2008 13:46 GMT
#20
ForGG is gonna get stomped. Jaedong ripped apart the Red Sniper easy. 3-0 vs Froggy here.
God Bless
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