As a general note, both day 1 and day 2 have included two similar people
a tall lanky man, and a man who likes explosives.
Araav is an acronym for Armored Reconnaissance Airborne Assault Vehicle, if they are together one other day, i would suggest that they are a pair as araav needs a pilot to move around and would explain the facination with explosives, the insane damage on vivi, and the seeds solid link him to day 2
So, we come down to the last bit of game. I have opted for a different approach this game than normal. The town leadership although “won” by me will be directly placed on MBH when he revives, why you ask? Because he is confimed townie. As such I have gone out of my way to get reactions out of players, and observe how they react/were acting before said post. YDG is the most prominent of these people.
Now we will analyze why
On July 03 2009 03:03 ydg wrote: Can we repeatedly vote for the same weather options? Like snow/snow/snow/snow/snow? And the weather takes effect the night and the next day, right, so if we voted for fog that means that tomorrow's vote checks wouldn't show pledges?
Anyways I'm stuck between snow and rain. Day 1 clues are always weak because they're mostly red herrings so more clues would be nice, but with a KP of 5 and only 30 townies, mafia needs 5 days to win, so it might be a good idea to limit their KP until we can kill some mafia and lower it that way.
On July 03 2009 03:18 ydg wrote: I wouldn't say that rain is useless, especially early game. Early game, mafia can either hit blindly, try to snipe, or take out people talking a lot. It's easier to block hits if they do the last two, which usually happens early game. Hitting blindly isn't going to help them that much. Regardless, I voted for snow. Oh and got my role.
On July 03 2009 03:21 ydg wrote: Wait. "The option with the most votes will be announced during the lynching and the weather will change immediately."
Vote for fog. I assume lynching for day 1 means the election, so we do fog during the election, since you can't even list check mayor voting lists, and we have them lose some hits for the night. And then tomorrow we change the fog to snow and they can list check. Unless there is no weather for tonight.
Look at these time stamps people, within the span of 20ish minutes, he has argues snow/rain/fog. Saying he voted for snow, then asking people to vote fog. You wonder why is this an issue, well that’s a good point. See, common mafia tactic is to appear to be active, as this is, even appear to be helpful which it does, HOWEVER, by constant flipflopping and not enforcing one idealogy off sound reasoning, we instead have someone trying to create chaos and disruption. We move on.
On July 03 2009 05:00 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I think Snow will actually not be that helpful this early because getting twice as many Day 1 clues is probably not going to be that helpful. We don't know how Plexa is doing clues either... KP is... holy fuck 5! So I guess that means at least 5 clues per day post and Snow probably doubles that? Maybe Snow just adds a constant number or multiplies the clue number by less than 2, who knows... OK nvm, we wouldn't get more Day 1 clues but Day 2 clues so this could be pretty helpful.
Not necessarily, since Plexa could do clues where only a few mafia have clues linked to them each day. But I agree, until we know how clues are, if they're tidbits from the mafia's profile/whatever else and expressed through traits such as physical traits, tendency to use a weapon, or what not, or if the tidbits are just shown in the scene. Or if Plexa draws heavily on a theme or if he picks from this and that, we don't know yet.
Wait a second He just advocated voting fog, now we are back to saying snow is useful for day 1, and tries to once again express this is a good idea. Constant try to keep conversation on a bad bad idea, he even ignores the fact that fog will lower KP, when 5 is insanely high for such a low player game.
On July 03 2009 10:12 ydg wrote: I disagree with spamming fog, but I agree that fog should be used day one. List checking is one of the most effective tools, and, as pledges can only be found via list checks, if we spam fog, we will have no sure way of hitting pledge as opposed to hitting regular mafia.
Here he doesn’t like the fog option repeatedly as he doesn’t believe we can hit pledges without list checks (fog has been deemed smartest choice overall by player base for day 1) Once again he wants us to let mafia have highest KP possible.
On July 05 2009 14:48 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ydg as he tends to go inactive for alot of a game in most games (sorry bud but inactives kill the game)
I'd post more but it seems like there's not much to discuss now? Tbh I only go inactive when I'm mafia lol.
I'd clue analyze but it's only day 1. I like to wait until at least day 2 to start looking at it.
On July 05 2009 15:25 ydg wrote: Okay assuming Plexa is going with mafia have their own eccentricities and quirks and their own traits, here are a few weird things I found...
On July 03 2009 21:44 Plexa wrote: "were strung up on lines like a human clothes line."
"He saw two men; one tall and lanky, the other carrying an explosive device." "he heard gun load, he felt the cold of the barrel up against the back of his neck."
"You will all pay for what you have done to me”.
So so far only two characters have been mentioned, "tall and lanky" and "Mr. Explosive." I THINK that the person who killed Plexa was another person, perhaps a stealthy person (like a ninja, why is there always a ninja).
Also, the "strung up on lines like a human clothes line" is VERY strange, what a weird way to phrase an odd scene.
And of course, the note. But, being day 1, I can't think much of these except a preliminary outline of how clues will be?
He mentions how he doesn’t like to clue analyze day 1(very intelligent I will give) then proceeds to CLUE ANALYZE, only after I called him out, WHY would you start doing something you said you don’t like doing when that reason was acceptable, instead he tries his best to be on the side of the town, but hes trying to hard all too fast as the next message will show.
On July 05 2009 15:39 ydg wrote: Btw, 8/8 Mafia alive. (Current killing power = 5) 1/1 Suicide Bomner alive. 1/1 Godfather alive.
so, 6 non-Godfather, non-Bomber mafia.
With fog...
6 pledges, 1 non, 1 god => 3/2+1/2+1=3 total hits 5/2/1=>5/4+1+1=13/4=3.25=4 total hits 4/3/1=>1+3/2+1=7/2=3.5=4 total hits 3/4/1=>3/4+2+1=15/4=3.75=4 total hits 2/5/1=>1/2+5/2+1=4 total hits 1/6/1=>1/4+3+1=4.25=5 total hits
So not bad for reducing KP by 1. I guess we can always figure out a way to get pledges without the voting list check.
[b] This bit of math has basically been covered at least once by this point, I will even quote it (check timestamps)
On July 03 2009 08:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Pyrr that has to be at least 4 pledges 3 reg pledges + 1 for suicide bomber. (it says one pledge is a suicide bomber ie should count as a pledge).
Otherwise the KP of 5 is way to high for day 1. 38 players - 8 red = 30/5= 6 days needed to kill us (provided no lynches used) If we lynch townies incorrectly it drops even lower.
So fog should drop the KP of the mafia by 1 or possibly 2 to even it out. It also gives us an idea of how many pledges in the game there are.
As for your equation all mafia give .5 cept for gf. so mafia looks to have a starting KP of 4.5 rounded up. so math should be as followed.
say 2 pledges total 3.5 - (.5 x 2/2) =3
then 3 + 1(gf kp) mafia has 4 kp. the only way their KP isnt lowered is if there is exactly 1 pledge.
So we have a rehashed equation in more depth that tells us basically what we already know (the detail is useless as the result is the same as I had already mentioned). He is rehashing old info, even making it look prettier to slide under the radar.
On July 06 2009 02:37 ydg wrote: Actively reading the thread? More like coming in randomly to catch up, and seeing how there's nothing happening and so not saying anything. What, do you want me to say something stupid. like sup, every time I come to the thread?
But it's okay, I understand your position, you don't have any legit suspects so you pick on people who you say will be inactive.
And if you actually did any research into me, you'll realize that I almost always vote even if I don't post in the thread, and this is construed as inactive how?
Whatever. Non-voters: L inertinept clasic kuja rebirth scamp
Looking at the high number of abstains, I'd say it's unlikely that either of the two candidates are mafia.
On July 06 2009 02:48 ydg wrote: Oh and what the hell do you mean I sat back doing nothing? Go back and read the thread maybe, like on page 1 or 2 maybe and, OH MY GOD I ACTUALLY POSTED QUITE A BIT in fact, I was the one who SUGGESTED we do fog first???
Whatever. Once we get mafia down to 4 kp (not due to weather), if the priest role claims publically and all angels protect the priest, and we vote rain every day, mafia will have no way of killing the priest. And, as the ability travels between people, we get more and more confirmed townies. And if mafia decides to role claim priest, the real priest should speak up, but I guess then there will have to be some trust in deciding who the real priest is.
Two posts very close to eachother (time difference obvious in time to write the messages pretty well). Both are directly attributed to me calling him out. Then moving onto another list of people to look at (look they didn’t vote). Then, he wants us to concentrate on finding the priest is, ok that’s not to bad of an idea…..wait, he wants to keep using priests ability to get confirmed townies in the works… Does he not realize that’s useless. Unless we get perfect lynches going for awhile (or assassin hits) mafia can wipe us out in 6 days, we won’t have the time to swap the priest role for that list, as the game wont last that long.
There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out.
Four Mafia had entered, but only three had returned to the exit. All three of them instantly knew what had happened to Mr Julia and rushed over to the safe room to bring him back home. vivi57 was the last security guard on duty and was know well aware that the place had been hit by the Mafia. He was hiding around a corner, near the safe room, hoping the Mafia would leave him be. However, the instant the 3 Mafia passed the corner he was struck down by a large faintly warm object. He fell to the ground dazed and confused, but could make out 3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs. The three Mafia noted that he was still alive and opened fire on vivi57 – the sheer intensity of the bullets severed vivi57’s body in two.
Quite a lot is revealed about Mr. Julia. He is new to the mafia (a first time player?). He is a safe cracking expert and, I might be mistaken, but I believe there could be something wrong with his body, considering his reaction to getting burned and him passing out when kicking his victim. As all three other members instantly knew what had happened, I think this is a clue as well.
The Mr. Julia thing may be a nod towards the pledge-ness of the mafioso member. Or it may be that Mr. Julia is an inept person who burned himself and then couldn't control his rage.
he added very little information to a brief summary of a mafia member, again, appears to be more useful than he is actually being, subtle mafia trick.
The team of two got to work right away sabotaging the Cheese factory. As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted. Elemenope had been alerted to their activities moments ago upon hearing the prolonged roar which had come from the control tower, which then prompted him to look outside his window which overlooked the entire factory. As a security guard for the factory, he knew it was his responsibility to protect the exports at all cost. He launched himself out of the window towards the two saboteurs in hopes to catch them by surprise. However the lanky one was well aware of what was going on. A simple sidestep was enough to have Elemenope come crashing to the floor, immediately the other Mafioso tied him up and strapped a bomb to his chest. No one was able to help Elemenope before the timer ran out.
Two men were rummaging around in a room nearby, where exactly he could not tell. The sounds came closer and closer and very soon they were in the same room as him. He saw two men; one tall and lanky, the other carrying an explosive device. Their plan became immediate to him, they were going to blow his palace up with him inside. The two began setting the device while Plexa buried himself in his hiding place.
side by side comparisons of the only two people we can pinpoint as the exact same from day 1. Aside from explosions and tall guy, anything else stand out?
EDIT: "The two began setting the device" vs "As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted." so they both require some sort of preparation or some sort of planning. Might be insignificant.
Makes mention to similarities of people that L had already made in his huge post on why to kill Truthbringer. Again he is rehashing information given in an attempt to be “active and useful”. But its not real use, its rehashing information.
On July 06 2009 13:29 ydg wrote: @foxglove seeds, if you do a simple google search, you see that they are poisonous, which may either be a byproduct of the script or a key indication of the mafioso. But, unless Plexa is some sort of botanist or whatever that works with poisonous foxglove seeds (I've never heard of them before), how does he get foxglove seeds as a weapon o_O. Remember, Plexa goes (probably) from INFO->CLUE and so we need to see what links TO foxglove seeds and not what foxgloves seeds links to.
How is Plexa going to go from "The flower that blooms in adversity is the most rare and beautiful of all" to foxglove? When someone shows me this connection, I'll vote Araav. But for now, it seems that the people who are adamantly trying to get him lynched are very suspicious.
Also, clues tend to NOT be many things from a person's profile, but a few select details (from my experience, Plexa may be doing it differently) that are heavily emphasized. Thus the vx70GTOJudgexv is very weak, imo, because why would he be connected to so many different things? The main points of Mr Julia are probably the noobiness (ineptness->inertinept lol), this weird pulsating thing, and this rage, which, like I said before, may be because of the greenness of the character.
All in all, I'd say L's analysis seems the most logical to me.
Instantly dismisses Araav, who was a very good link (only person who really links to flowers in this case). The vx70GTOJudgexv clues are weak as he stated and meant to be such, his reaction was needed for behavioural analysis. However, YDG defends both Araav, and Judge almost as soon as he sees my analysis. But wait, he said he likes giving his own analysis way up above as of day 2, but he doesn’t provide any of his own, instead he says L’s is sound and logical. He still doesn’t contribute anything sound, but does give a link to inertinept that’s weak as hell.
On July 06 2009 13:31 ydg wrote: Also, isn't it interesting how quick Pyrrh is to support BC's (weak) clue analysis, just as how quick he was to support his platform?
and the attack finally begins. He attacks me personally based on someone supporting me instantly, although Pyrr disagrees with my analysis of judge seen
On July 06 2009 13:15 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: On the entusman thing: entusman to enterman seems highly unlikely to me. Also, So No Fek has "entusman" in his profile, too. There are even more Entus fans, I'm sure.
Also, with the Truthbringer thing. If L's analysis is correct, that's way too many clues for one Day post, especially without Snow in active. Could be that only one is intentional, but I can't imagine Plexa thinking that 5 separate links to the same guy in one post on Day 2 makes sense. I mean I did something like that, but it was a novice game and it was Day 5 or so. Still, more links increase the odds and that's a lot of links.
Oh shit, that was before YDG’s attack.
As well as pyrr supporting L, but wait, he can’t support us both?
In closing people, we have someone who is seemingly being active, while not actively contributing anything useful, and just rehashing information given by other players, but by quoting larger posts, he can appear to be helping.
Remember he A) advocated that people opt for snow (he said he voted for it) to begin with, then opted for fog after others were set on it after arguments by L myself and others. B) he stayed relatively useless, then as soon as he was called out, he makes a valid reason of why he was inactive that any player would normally accept, then goes and breaks that reason to post shoddy analysis, and then rehash more information already given C) He wants us to locate the priest. We don’t need to know the priest as the only job they have is hiding till their resurrect is done. And finding the priest out only helps mafia, it means we would have to go rain (giving mafia 5 KP) to stop the bomber, and then they stack kills and kill priest anyway or force meds elsewhere to take out other targets while sniping the priest before his powers swap. Untop of that he wants to use the priest over and over to get a group of confirmed townies when a game won’t last more than 2 full uses most likely. The logic is faulty and surprisingly people overlook it. D) rehashes more information, then as soon as specific people are targeted from analysis, one solid one not, he opts to defend both of them. WHY, judge already had a reason given by me to get a reaction, but YDG gave us even more, why defend someone with a weak connection that no one would lynch him on? To protect one of his own. He also defends Araav who has a good connection to him, and also someone who has been inactive a large chunk of the game. E) attacks me for having a supporter who is someone actually supporting multiple peoples analysis.
These are all major things mafia do to sidetrack the town. YDG obviously wants you to suspect me, as killing me off would remove the double lynches from the town. He also wants top KP for mafia, and a priest found. If you need more information than this to kill him, we won’t last long at all.
We don't have enough clues to get all mafia? Its very common for people to be caught via behavioural analysis, IE Ver, MBH, Ace, qatol, all of those 4 players are good at catching people who mess up in pm's or how they post, and is accepted as lynch worthy information, this is no different.
On July 07 2009 07:59 L wrote: There are a bunch of people who are about to outted by looking at voting patterns and thread activity.
Lets examine the general course of conversation this game has taken.
We started talking in general terms about weather. We then slid into a chat about what type of mafia one would send into the election. The answer was simple: the godfather. Elections went on, some odd voting happened, then we nearly completely dropped the topic.
Why is this important? Because BC is acting incoherently in his role. BC will criticize ydg for 'flip flopping', but flip flops himself, posting:
On July 05 2009 14:48 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ydg Ecomania Elemenope Kuja Scamp
If elected, i will be random # generating from this list.
Ydg as he tends to go inactive for alot of a game in most games (sorry bud but inactives kill the game)
Elemenope seems shifty to me based on a question he asked previously in the thread, ecomania, kuja and scamp due to general inactivity
then essentially going "oh wait nevermind, i'm going to kill a power player instead" 40 minutes later. Regardless of the wisdom of the plan, BC can't be pointing out other people for changing their minds when he's been the biggest flip flopper in the game when it comes down to concrete life or death decisions. More importantly, check that list: Who's number 1 there? The person BC is trying to get the town to bandwagon right now. Okay, fair enough, he's had a grudge and has been searching for shit to pin on ydg despite not having ANY clue information to back his claims up.
There's obviously more poor argumention from him, quite a bit of it stemming from kill MBH plan and a bit more coming from previous conversations. That alone isn't enough to pin someone as being mafia. Tricode last game was throwing up complete garbage posts, but he was just an idiot townie. What makes BC special is WHO his friends are and WHEN they support him.
The bolded member of the list are special because they correspond to typical voting periods for mafia members on a mafia candidate. Mafia will seed a list to get a bandwagon running, then let it grow a bit on its own, sprinkling a few extra votes in the middle, but holding most of their members back if they need to make a last minute push. The early voters? TruthBringer and Pyrr. TruthBringer has been silent and is by far our best clue link, and Pyrr defends BC fanatically, throwing a few red herrings at other players now and then. The two bolded votes further down correspond to the 11th and 12th votes for BC respectively, the votes needed to overcome the fact that I hadn't yet voted and assure the win for BC. Foolishness is posting useless comments and poor analysis all over the thread, adding to the 'chaos' that BC was talking about when referring to flip flopping. StorZerg Is nearly 100% silent.
The italicized members are those that have been put under suspicion in the past few pages. That said, there are likely only 3-5 mafia on that list, with the other 3-5 being on me or abstaining. Since I'm in the unique position of knowing that mafia would only vote for me to camouflage themselves (unless they wanted to warp my mind and control my precious fog votes), This tells me that BC is far too likely to be mafia to be followed in bandwagons. Lets examine those people who have been following:
Out of the 5 most likely mafia members, 3 of them are seeding bandwagon lists to deflect the pressure put on a fourth member: TruthBringer.
Wake the fuck up. Don't take my word for granted either. Think this shit through yourself. Town is getting fucking RAPED right now. We aren't active and the mafia are actively putting up walls of shit posts to throw you off and make you too lazy to go back and find quality information.
Ok, as your post is huge im shoving it in a spoiler to start.
Now, to start.
YDG has been on my list from the get go, I will admit, but hey lets look at what I've done first.
a) Pushed day 1 fog issue while debates on weather were going on, It locked in the most useful selection for town b) Killed MBH - Now this can be viewed as a bad move except for the fact as it flipped his colour showing town, giving us the best tool town needs to win, which is a strong player who's confirmed town. c) given analysis - some good some bad, but its day 2, thats expected.
Now, out of those 3, the first two are insanely town oriented, Mafia would never actually be the center of pushing those issues as it gives up its advantage of control. As for the last point, YDG analysis is overall solid, and any defense of him is just to get me out of the way.
Now lets look at this post ive quoted above, and we see L has bolded (but not italisized) truthbringer, making it sound like the stuff was on him for ages more than the rest. I have put suspicion on YDG well before L's on truthbringer, although not as detailed still there, ie not in the last few pages.
He purposely leaves out araav and judge as possible suspects although suspicion was drawn onto them as well. But instead he leaves them out. Show's that L doesn't like giving complete information to those he is trying to convince, but thats typical.
He also includes the vote lists from the day before of people who voted for me, him and abstained. Wait a second, if I was mafia, why did I kill two people off my own list? Wait why am I targetting more people on said list. Mafia elects always have their team push them into office, by killing people off my own list I would only be giving away my team if I was red, L knows this as well, yet doesn't mention it.
"Since I'm in the unique position of knowing that mafia would only vote for me to camouflage themselves (unless they wanted to warp my mind and control my precious fog votes), This tells me that BC is far too likely to be mafia to be followed in bandwagons. Lets examine those people who have been following: " How would he know he is in such a unique position? has the planets aligned and said "L IS OUR CHOSEN ONE" no, he is in the same position as I am, both of us giving things to the town to benefit it.
However, the one biggest factor between myself and L has been in the idea of the Priest resurrection plan. Yes its a gambit, but if priest lives one more night, we get a leader who can snipe red easily. Double lynch will be used to be at his disposal immediately. But L instead said he would auto lynch me, his competition for an idea of how the "mafia" voted. However, if he did that and I flipped green as both he and I know i would, it would leave town in a position that they would have a leader who would kill his only opposition for leadership, as well as a list of people who are almost for sure innocent. Leaving him to be lynched by town and double lynches lost in the game, and no serious leadership.
My analysis on judge was dismissed because it linked to far to many things to be likely by most of you, yet L's own analysis on truthbringer (much more solid I will admit) connects to many many many things in that kill, which if one very convinient link is dismissed, so should the other for similar reasons.
As for him saying the town is getting raped? The mafia is clutching at straws period. They had 4 mishits (shikyo would not have known he was bg), which shows the mafia needs a powerplay to get ahead. Town will soon have a confirmed powerhouse up and able to beat the mafia, as such they need to get rid of people pushing town forward. Killing me would make sense for them to remove that voice, Now look at people who have risen to YDG's defense YDG himself L Infundibulum motbob
when mafia are routinely caught, members will show up to defend them. Or bury the post in which they were accused. I however have defended myself.
My actions this game have proven my intent to get a win for the town, that is the leadership you should be following.
On July 07 2009 07:59 L wrote: There are a bunch of people who are about to outted by looking at voting patterns and thread activity.
Lets examine the general course of conversation this game has taken.
We started talking in general terms about weather. We then slid into a chat about what type of mafia one would send into the election. The answer was simple: the godfather. Elections went on, some odd voting happened, then we nearly completely dropped the topic.
Why is this important? Because BC is acting incoherently in his role. BC will criticize ydg for 'flip flopping', but flip flops himself, posting:
On July 05 2009 14:48 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ydg Ecomania Elemenope Kuja Scamp
If elected, i will be random # generating from this list.
Ydg as he tends to go inactive for alot of a game in most games (sorry bud but inactives kill the game)
Elemenope seems shifty to me based on a question he asked previously in the thread, ecomania, kuja and scamp due to general inactivity
then essentially going "oh wait nevermind, i'm going to kill a power player instead" 40 minutes later. Regardless of the wisdom of the plan, BC can't be pointing out other people for changing their minds when he's been the biggest flip flopper in the game when it comes down to concrete life or death decisions. More importantly, check that list: Who's number 1 there? The person BC is trying to get the town to bandwagon right now. Okay, fair enough, he's had a grudge and has been searching for shit to pin on ydg despite not having ANY clue information to back his claims up.
There's obviously more poor argumention from him, quite a bit of it stemming from kill MBH plan and a bit more coming from previous conversations. That alone isn't enough to pin someone as being mafia. Tricode last game was throwing up complete garbage posts, but he was just an idiot townie. What makes BC special is WHO his friends are and WHEN they support him.
The bolded member of the list are special because they correspond to typical voting periods for mafia members on a mafia candidate. Mafia will seed a list to get a bandwagon running, then let it grow a bit on its own, sprinkling a few extra votes in the middle, but holding most of their members back if they need to make a last minute push. The early voters? TruthBringer and Pyrr. TruthBringer has been silent and is by far our best clue link, and Pyrr defends BC fanatically, throwing a few red herrings at other players now and then. The two bolded votes further down correspond to the 11th and 12th votes for BC respectively, the votes needed to overcome the fact that I hadn't yet voted and assure the win for BC. Foolishness is posting useless comments and poor analysis all over the thread, adding to the 'chaos' that BC was talking about when referring to flip flopping. StorZerg Is nearly 100% silent.
The italicized members are those that have been put under suspicion in the past few pages. That said, there are likely only 3-5 mafia on that list, with the other 3-5 being on me or abstaining. Since I'm in the unique position of knowing that mafia would only vote for me to camouflage themselves (unless they wanted to warp my mind and control my precious fog votes), This tells me that BC is far too likely to be mafia to be followed in bandwagons. Lets examine those people who have been following:
Out of the 5 most likely mafia members, 3 of them are seeding bandwagon lists to deflect the pressure put on a fourth member: TruthBringer.
Wake the fuck up. Don't take my word for granted either. Think this shit through yourself. Town is getting fucking RAPED right now. We aren't active and the mafia are actively putting up walls of shit posts to throw you off and make you too lazy to go back and find quality information.
Ok, as your post is huge im shoving it in a spoiler to start.
Now, to start.
YDG has been on my list from the get go, I will admit, but hey lets look at what I've done first.
a) Pushed day 1 fog issue while debates on weather were going on, It locked in the most useful selection for town b) Killed MBH - Now this can be viewed as a bad move except for the fact as it flipped his colour showing town, giving us the best tool town needs to win, which is a strong player who's confirmed town. c) given analysis - some good some bad, but its day 2, thats expected.
Now, out of those 3, the first two are insanely town oriented, Mafia would never actually be the center of pushing those issues as it gives up its advantage of control. As for the last point, YDG analysis is overall solid, and any defense of him is just to get me out of the way.
Now lets look at this post ive quoted above, and we see L has bolded (but not italisized) truthbringer, making it sound like the stuff was on him for ages more than the rest. I have put suspicion on YDG well before L's on truthbringer, although not as detailed still there, ie not in the last few pages.
He purposely leaves out araav and judge as possible suspects although suspicion was drawn onto them as well. But instead he leaves them out. Show's that L doesn't like giving complete information to those he is trying to convince, but thats typical.
He also includes the vote lists from the day before of people who voted for me, him and abstained. Wait a second, if I was mafia, why did I kill two people off my own list? Wait why am I targetting more people on said list. Mafia elects always have their team push them into office, by killing people off my own list I would only be giving away my team if I was red, L knows this as well, yet doesn't mention it.
"Since I'm in the unique position of knowing that mafia would only vote for me to camouflage themselves (unless they wanted to warp my mind and control my precious fog votes), This tells me that BC is far too likely to be mafia to be followed in bandwagons. Lets examine those people who have been following: " How would he know he is in such a unique position? has the planets aligned and said "L IS OUR CHOSEN ONE" no, he is in the same position as I am, both of us giving things to the town to benefit it.
However, the one biggest factor between myself and L has been in the idea of the Priest resurrection plan. Yes its a gambit, but if priest lives one more night, we get a leader who can snipe red easily. Double lynch will be used to be at his disposal immediately. But L instead said he would auto lynch me, his competition for an idea of how the "mafia" voted. However, if he did that and I flipped green as both he and I know i would, it would leave town in a position that they would have a leader who would kill his only opposition for leadership, as well as a list of people who are almost for sure innocent. Leaving him to be lynched by town and double lynches lost in the game, and no serious leadership.
My analysis on judge was dismissed because it linked to far to many things to be likely by most of you, yet L's own analysis on truthbringer (much more solid I will admit) connects to many many many things in that kill, which if one very convinient link is dismissed, so should the other for similar reasons.
As for him saying the town is getting raped? The mafia is clutching at straws period. They had 4 mishits (shikyo would not have known he was bg), which shows the mafia needs a powerplay to get ahead. Town will soon have a confirmed powerhouse up and able to beat the mafia, as such they need to get rid of people pushing town forward. Killing me would make sense for them to remove that voice, Now look at people who have risen to YDG's defense YDG himself L Infundibulum motbob
when mafia are routinely caught, members will show up to defend them. Or bury the post in which they were accused. I however have defended myself.
My actions this game have proven my intent to get a win for the town, that is the leadership you should be following.
I see you're throwing out falsities again. Lets go through this.
I bolded truthbringer because he was the first vote for you. The bolded positions aren't based on players, they're based on timing. I specifically mentioned that and explained that the bold mentioned members of that list are in prime mafia voting areas; the start or to push someone over the top.
You, by contrast claim that I bold him to make it seem like i have "ages" more on him than the rest. No, That's purely a position matter. The fact that Foolishness is spamming the thread (which you considered a mafia move), TruthBringer is silent (which you considered a good method of selecting a random target from early game prior to killing MBH), StorZerg is silent, etc shows that there's more than just position in play here. TruthBringer has clue analysis, behavior AND voting patterns which all predict he's mafia.
Yet you go after someone you admit you've been trying to kill since day 1 for being quiet. The problem is that we have better information to go on, he isn't silent, and your reasons for targetting him can be applied to YOU as well.
You can't explain away all of that, now can you?
Next: I leave out araav? No I don't. He very well may be mafia too. You've already moved on from araav after ignoring my questions regarding how a tank quickly ties people up, and the veritable battery of 'what the fuck' from the town. In terms of your analysis, you know as well as I do that yours is absolutely bullshit. The question is: why? Are you trying to lure out mafia, or are you trying to set up suspicions now so that mafia can steer votes away from people like TruthBringer?
He also includes the vote lists from the day before of people who voted for me, him and abstained. Wait a second, if I was mafia, why did I kill two people off my own list? Wait why am I targetting more people on said list. Mafia elects always have their team push them into office, by killing people off my own list I would only be giving away my team if I was red, L knows this as well, yet doesn't mention it.
I also know its the only list you can push with pledges and not get list checked. If you're so confident that the list isn't ripe with red, why don't you call a double lynch and let us clear it out a bit more, hmm? Oh, because you're covering for someone.
How would he know he is in such a unique position? has the planets aligned and said "L IS OUR CHOSEN ONE" no, he is in the same position as I am, both of us giving things to the town to benefit it.
Uh, you and I both have the knowledge of one of the roles of someone who seriously ran for office. That's why I'm in a unique position. If you're godfather, I'm the person who has the most information telling me that you are because of the fact that I know i'm not. No one else can tell if i am, and frankly DTs can't check at this point either because of your cover ability.
As for him saying the town is getting raped? The mafia is clutching at straws period. They had 4 mishits (shikyo would not have known he was bg), which shows the mafia needs a powerplay to get ahead. Town will soon have a confirmed powerhouse up and able to beat the mafia, as such they need to get rid of people pushing town forward. Killing me would make sense for them to remove that voice,
WHAT VOICE? You've said it yourself; town shouldn't need you unless MBH gets killed. You're contradicting yourself at such a high rate, it boggles my mind.
I'm not going to sit down and make the player who has the highest likelihood of being the godfather in the game dictate who I should lynch and how I should analyse. This both goes against your own platform, your cute little twist with killing off one of our best players, and the most basic rule of thumb for a town player: think for yourself. I'm not telling everyone they need to believe me. I told them to look at the information in front of me. You, by contrast are telling people to shut up and get in line for mafia house slaughter time. Sorry, no dice.
when mafia are routinely caught, members will show up to defend them. Or bury the post in which they were accused.
Like you, pyrr and foolishness did when I posted my analysis of truthbringer? He hasn't shown up either. By your very own logic, you should realize that people who aren't in your little cabal should switch votes, and switch votes now.
Rofl, man your insanely deluded. Wanting to kill someone on a list based on certain traits is normal and yet the the fact he has come out of the woodworks with the shaddiest play's make him a prime suspect so this means he is on a list for being way too active in a bad way, much higher on a kill list than someone who I EVEN ADMITTED is likely red off your own analysis, but do you stop to consider the fact that A VOCAL MAFIA is more destructive than a non vocal one, the answer is no in terms of truthbringer/ydg, youd want to lynch the inactive one, well, kudo's to you.
As for me being GF? Wow your retarded, a mafia member would never willingly help the town to the extent I have, yet you don't even go over that. You do concentrate on vote lists, which is cool, except you have more random "where the fuck did that guy come from" votes on you. You didnt even consider mafia voting for you, in fact you dont want the town to ever believe even for arguments sake your red. Stop with your shit already.
You want an answer on araav tieing someone up as a tank? shoots a net, he has a display pic of a zealot which have arms, etc... he was linked off a clue, and you found fault, I could go over yours and find the obvious faults but at face value it seems legit, especially as of day two, but giving suspects to mull over is a town job, Ive given three to your one, and only one of which was a weak connection, you however bully the choice of one, then accuse one of the few people actually helping the town.
As for your unique standpoint, I KNOW im not the GF, sorry pal, your "unique" standpoint is wrong as im not what your accusing me of. As for killing off a best player MBH as a bad call? IF plexa randomized roles according to balance, him being green means your or I should be red, I know i'm not, and everything I have done to this point indicates that, what about you? You push one person, argue that a autolynch should be used on your competetor to get info on a vote list? They flip green you get killed, and even if your green, town gets fucked JUST LIKE LAST GAME. Your doing the same shit that got ace and ver killed, and you were wrong then just like you are now. I will give you can analyze well, but your leading ability is horrible. My plan gives us a confirmed powerhouse, yours would have given you vote lists that you can't even prove anything from.
I die and flip green my list could be completely townie, or mafia sends entire force to get me in, etc... You can't know. Mafia can easily hide on the three lists to avoid suspicion yet you dont consider Obvious facts. My only flaw in my plan is the priest dying. Yours had so much more.
As for me telling people to follow me at this point, YES its logical, You have given some sound analysis on truthbringer, thats cool but you werent elected, hell I was and am giving control over to a revived guy, so till he's up, why dont you simmer the hell down.
As for double lynch? We are clutching at straws on links, and you want to waste a double lynch? Give me more than day 2 clues on someone, hell even more than my behavioural analysis on someone, link someone both ways and sure ill enact a doublelynch, but wasting one on very little is asinine, and you should know that.
After seeing these posts of yours I know why so many of the top players now ignore almost everything you say. Outside of your campaign post and truthbringers analysis, you spend more time pushing crockpot ideas and costing town's games. So L stop trying to bring the town to the brink of death like you did last game so the town can win. Stick to your analysis posts and you are useful, outside that your destructive so just stop.
On July 06 2009 11:45 L wrote: I'm going to do this a bit more in depth and with colours, because short posts are easy to swamp with terrible ones if mafia wants to move to the next page.
All was quiet in the town of Liquiville. The sleepy town had never been one which dabbled in the troubles of bigger cities and was content to live a simple country life. The moon was high in the sky with the light filtering through the windows of the village folk when the silence was broken by a shrill sharp yell. Confused, two of the village folk went out to investigate the strange noises. Their search lead them to the Emperor’s Palace, a find they wished they could just forget.
As they stepped through the gates they saw a sight which resembled a bloody battle. The bodyguards were strung up on lines like a human clothes line. Blood spilling from their gored bodies and pooling on the ground. The two forced themselves to continue on, for the sake of the town. They tread through the blood and into the inner palace. Little did Camlito and Ace know that this foolish move would be their last. As they entered, a bomb went off to their right, sending a pillar crashing down on top of the poor innocent townies. Both were flattened into human pancakes.
The events at the Palace were not yet through for the night. Plexa, the Emperor, had heard the noises, seen his Bodyguards brutally tortured and murdered and heard the explosion down stairs. He knew that whoever the intruders were, they were after him. Fortunately Plexa’s Palace was well equipped with hiding places after his Uncle’s erratic fear of giant spiders. It was not difficult for him to completely conceal his presence in the room.
Two men were rummaging around in a room nearby, where exactly he could not tell. The sounds came closer and closer and very soon they were in the same room as him. He saw two men; one tall and lanky, the other carrying an explosive device. Their plan became immediate to him, they were going to blow his palace up with him inside. The two began setting the device while Plexa buried himself in his hiding place.
“Wait” said one of them. Plexa heard footsteps, he heard gun load, he felt the cold of the barrel up against the back of his neck. The man pulled the trigger. The Emperor was dead.
Dawn broke, and the cry of the countless vultures overhead woke the villagers from their slumber. The smell of death filled the air and immediately they all knew their quiet little village would stay quiet no longer. Amongst the ruins of the Palace the village found the body of their beloved Emperor as well as the bodies of his fallen guards. There was a note posted on the town gallows which read “We will not rest until every last villagers is dead. You will all pay for what you have done to me”. The town was confused at this note, but knew what they must do. A new Emperor must be elected, one prepared to fight the Mafia insurgence and save the town from brutal slaughter.
Liquiville prided itself on it’s cheese, after all it was Liquiville’s primary export. The Cheese factory lay on the outskirts of the village and operated around the clock manufacturing cheese. Four members of the Mafia congregated outside of the factory and planned to butcher the occupants and ruin the towns economy. The Mafia entered the building and split up; two travelled alone while two travelled together.
The first headed straight for the control room. His quickened walk looked almost arrogant as he kept his eyes peeled for any sign of resistance. The Mafioso burst through the control room door and Shikyo leapt from his chair in shock. Disappointed that there was only one occupant, the Mafioso sighed and punched Shikyo in the gut, causing him to fall face first onto the ground. Standing above Shikyo, the Mafioso opened fire on his head. By the end of the incident there was more metal inside of Shikyo’s head than organic material. Satisfied with a job well done, the Mafioso signalled to his colleagues that the Control Room was secure.
The team of two got to work right away sabotaging the Cheese factory. As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted. Elemenope had been alerted to their activities moments ago upon hearing the prolonged roar which had come from the control tower, which then prompted him to look outside his window which overlooked the entire factory. As a security guard for the factory, he knew it was his responsibility to protect the exports at all cost. He launched himself out of the window towards the two saboteurs in hopes to catch them by surprise. However the lanky one was well aware of what was going on. A simple sidestep was enough to have Elemenope come crashing to the floor, immediately the other Mafioso tied him up and strapped a bomb to his chest. No one was able to help Elemenope before the timer ran out.
There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out.
Four Mafia had entered, but only three had returned to the exit. All three of them instantly knew what had happened to Mr Julia and rushed over to the safe room to bring him back home. vivi57 was the last security guard on duty and was know well aware that the place had been hit by the Mafia. He was hiding around a corner, near the safe room, hoping the Mafia would leave him be. However, the instant the 3 Mafia passed the corner he was struck down by a large faintly warm object. He fell to the ground dazed and confused, but could make out 3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs. The three Mafia noted that he was still alive and opened fire on vivi57 – the sheer intensity of the bullets severed vivi57’s body in two.
Meanwhile in Liquiville’s most holy temple a Priest was channeling all his rage and hate into the corpse of the recently deceased MrBabyHands. Uncertain of what his fate would be, the Priest knew in his heart that whatever the outcome, MrBabyHands must walk again for the sake of the town. The resurrection had begun.
First off is the Arrogant look. This links twice to the profile. The first link is via the skeleton picture. Slightly leaning back, the skeleton has the most arrogant possible look I've ever seen put on bones. Bit stretched, but whatever. His name also links here, since it implies that he's somewhat of a cocky guy. The second link is the fact that he kept his eyes peeled; Carbon FC links here: it is a glassy carbon used to make motorcycle visors.
Next: Shikyo leaps out of his chair in shock. Well, no fucking shit, a skeleton just broke into the room.
Third: The method of death; Explicit reference to a lack of organic matter in Shikyo's head, much like the decayed skull that TruthBringer has. That's not the 'big clue' though. The fact that his head is filled with so much lead that its more metal than flesh, however, is. An entire pistol clip couldn't do that, but a chaingun sure fucking could.
Fourth and Lastly: Vivi's death Vivi is cut in half by bullets. Chainguns can do this, pistols cannot, rifles cannot, shotguns would need to be near point blank and fired in a specific pattern to do so.
Note how there's very little solid information directly related to the character besides for his love of explosives. He's the only one I have linked to explosives via his mybrute (I checked all of the one listed in profiles, as of right now, his is the only one with a bomb). He also seems to be fairly quick, which his character is.
Between the two, Truthbringer is obviously a far better target, but I haven't found someone who links to explosives as well as Kuja. The fox glove clue can link to digitalis or cardiac drug medicines, but we can wait a day and see if anything extra comes up here.
On July 06 2009 15:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote: YDG Why he is Mafia.
So, we come down to the last bit of game. I have opted for a different approach this game than normal. The town leadership although “won” by me will be directly placed on MBH when he revives, why you ask? Because he is confimed townie. As such I have gone out of my way to get reactions out of players, and observe how they react/were acting before said post. YDG is the most prominent of these people.
On July 03 2009 03:03 ydg wrote: Can we repeatedly vote for the same weather options? Like snow/snow/snow/snow/snow? And the weather takes effect the night and the next day, right, so if we voted for fog that means that tomorrow's vote checks wouldn't show pledges?
Anyways I'm stuck between snow and rain. Day 1 clues are always weak because they're mostly red herrings so more clues would be nice, but with a KP of 5 and only 30 townies, mafia needs 5 days to win, so it might be a good idea to limit their KP until we can kill some mafia and lower it that way.
On July 03 2009 03:18 ydg wrote: I wouldn't say that rain is useless, especially early game. Early game, mafia can either hit blindly, try to snipe, or take out people talking a lot. It's easier to block hits if they do the last two, which usually happens early game. Hitting blindly isn't going to help them that much. Regardless, I voted for snow. Oh and got my role.
On July 03 2009 03:21 ydg wrote: Wait. "The option with the most votes will be announced during the lynching and the weather will change immediately."
Vote for fog. I assume lynching for day 1 means the election, so we do fog during the election, since you can't even list check mayor voting lists, and we have them lose some hits for the night. And then tomorrow we change the fog to snow and they can list check. Unless there is no weather for tonight.
Look at these time stamps people, within the span of 20ish minutes, he has argues snow/rain/fog. Saying he voted for snow, then asking people to vote fog. You wonder why is this an issue, well that’s a good point. See, common mafia tactic is to appear to be active, as this is, even appear to be helpful which it does, HOWEVER, by constant flipflopping and not enforcing one idealogy off sound reasoning, we instead have someone trying to create chaos and disruption. We move on.
On July 03 2009 05:00 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I think Snow will actually not be that helpful this early because getting twice as many Day 1 clues is probably not going to be that helpful. We don't know how Plexa is doing clues either... KP is... holy fuck 5! So I guess that means at least 5 clues per day post and Snow probably doubles that? Maybe Snow just adds a constant number or multiplies the clue number by less than 2, who knows... OK nvm, we wouldn't get more Day 1 clues but Day 2 clues so this could be pretty helpful.
Not necessarily, since Plexa could do clues where only a few mafia have clues linked to them each day. But I agree, until we know how clues are, if they're tidbits from the mafia's profile/whatever else and expressed through traits such as physical traits, tendency to use a weapon, or what not, or if the tidbits are just shown in the scene. Or if Plexa draws heavily on a theme or if he picks from this and that, we don't know yet.
Wait a second He just advocated voting fog, now we are back to saying snow is useful for day 1, and tries to once again express this is a good idea. Constant try to keep conversation on a bad bad idea, he even ignores the fact that fog will lower KP, when 5 is insanely high for such a low player game.
On July 03 2009 10:12 ydg wrote: I disagree with spamming fog, but I agree that fog should be used day one. List checking is one of the most effective tools, and, as pledges can only be found via list checks, if we spam fog, we will have no sure way of hitting pledge as opposed to hitting regular mafia.
Here he doesn’t like the fog option repeatedly as he doesn’t believe we can hit pledges without list checks (fog has been deemed smartest choice overall by player base for day 1) Once again he wants us to let mafia have highest KP possible.
On July 05 2009 15:25 ydg wrote: Okay assuming Plexa is going with mafia have their own eccentricities and quirks and their own traits, here are a few weird things I found...
On July 03 2009 21:44 Plexa wrote: "were strung up on lines like a human clothes line."
"He saw two men; one tall and lanky, the other carrying an explosive device." "he heard gun load, he felt the cold of the barrel up against the back of his neck."
"You will all pay for what you have done to me”.
So so far only two characters have been mentioned, "tall and lanky" and "Mr. Explosive." I THINK that the person who killed Plexa was another person, perhaps a stealthy person (like a ninja, why is there always a ninja).
Also, the "strung up on lines like a human clothes line" is VERY strange, what a weird way to phrase an odd scene.
And of course, the note. But, being day 1, I can't think much of these except a preliminary outline of how clues will be?
He mentions how he doesn’t like to clue analyze day 1(very intelligent I will give) then proceeds to CLUE ANALYZE, only after I called him out, WHY would you start doing something you said you don’t like doing when that reason was acceptable, instead he tries his best to be on the side of the town, but hes trying to hard all too fast as the next message will show.
On July 05 2009 15:39 ydg wrote: Btw, 8/8 Mafia alive. (Current killing power = 5) 1/1 Suicide Bomner alive. 1/1 Godfather alive.
so, 6 non-Godfather, non-Bomber mafia.
With fog...
6 pledges, 1 non, 1 god => 3/2+1/2+1=3 total hits 5/2/1=>5/4+1+1=13/4=3.25=4 total hits 4/3/1=>1+3/2+1=7/2=3.5=4 total hits 3/4/1=>3/4+2+1=15/4=3.75=4 total hits 2/5/1=>1/2+5/2+1=4 total hits 1/6/1=>1/4+3+1=4.25=5 total hits
So not bad for reducing KP by 1. I guess we can always figure out a way to get pledges without the voting list check.
[b] This bit of math has basically been covered at least once by this point, I will even quote it (check timestamps)
On July 03 2009 08:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Pyrr that has to be at least 4 pledges 3 reg pledges + 1 for suicide bomber. (it says one pledge is a suicide bomber ie should count as a pledge).
Otherwise the KP of 5 is way to high for day 1. 38 players - 8 red = 30/5= 6 days needed to kill us (provided no lynches used) If we lynch townies incorrectly it drops even lower.
So fog should drop the KP of the mafia by 1 or possibly 2 to even it out. It also gives us an idea of how many pledges in the game there are.
As for your equation all mafia give .5 cept for gf. so mafia looks to have a starting KP of 4.5 rounded up. so math should be as followed.
say 2 pledges total 3.5 - (.5 x 2/2) =3
then 3 + 1(gf kp) mafia has 4 kp. the only way their KP isnt lowered is if there is exactly 1 pledge.
So we have a rehashed equation in more depth that tells us basically what we already know (the detail is useless as the result is the same as I had already mentioned). He is rehashing old info, even making it look prettier to slide under the radar.
On July 06 2009 02:37 ydg wrote: Actively reading the thread? More like coming in randomly to catch up, and seeing how there's nothing happening and so not saying anything. What, do you want me to say something stupid. like sup, every time I come to the thread?
But it's okay, I understand your position, you don't have any legit suspects so you pick on people who you say will be inactive.
And if you actually did any research into me, you'll realize that I almost always vote even if I don't post in the thread, and this is construed as inactive how?
Whatever. Non-voters: L inertinept clasic kuja rebirth scamp
Looking at the high number of abstains, I'd say it's unlikely that either of the two candidates are mafia.
On July 06 2009 02:48 ydg wrote: Oh and what the hell do you mean I sat back doing nothing? Go back and read the thread maybe, like on page 1 or 2 maybe and, OH MY GOD I ACTUALLY POSTED QUITE A BIT in fact, I was the one who SUGGESTED we do fog first???
Whatever. Once we get mafia down to 4 kp (not due to weather), if the priest role claims publically and all angels protect the priest, and we vote rain every day, mafia will have no way of killing the priest. And, as the ability travels between people, we get more and more confirmed townies. And if mafia decides to role claim priest, the real priest should speak up, but I guess then there will have to be some trust in deciding who the real priest is.
Two posts very close to eachother (time difference obvious in time to write the messages pretty well). Both are directly attributed to me calling him out. Then moving onto another list of people to look at (look they didn’t vote). Then, he wants us to concentrate on finding the priest is, ok that’s not to bad of an idea…..wait, he wants to keep using priests ability to get confirmed townies in the works… Does he not realize that’s useless. Unless we get perfect lynches going for awhile (or assassin hits) mafia can wipe us out in 6 days, we won’t have the time to swap the priest role for that list, as the game wont last that long.
There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out.
Four Mafia had entered, but only three had returned to the exit. All three of them instantly knew what had happened to Mr Julia and rushed over to the safe room to bring him back home. vivi57 was the last security guard on duty and was know well aware that the place had been hit by the Mafia. He was hiding around a corner, near the safe room, hoping the Mafia would leave him be. However, the instant the 3 Mafia passed the corner he was struck down by a large faintly warm object. He fell to the ground dazed and confused, but could make out 3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs. The three Mafia noted that he was still alive and opened fire on vivi57 – the sheer intensity of the bullets severed vivi57’s body in two.
Quite a lot is revealed about Mr. Julia. He is new to the mafia (a first time player?). He is a safe cracking expert and, I might be mistaken, but I believe there could be something wrong with his body, considering his reaction to getting burned and him passing out when kicking his victim. As all three other members instantly knew what had happened, I think this is a clue as well.
The Mr. Julia thing may be a nod towards the pledge-ness of the mafioso member. Or it may be that Mr. Julia is an inept person who burned himself and then couldn't control his rage.
he added very little information to a brief summary of a mafia member, again, appears to be more useful than he is actually being, subtle mafia trick.
The team of two got to work right away sabotaging the Cheese factory. As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted. Elemenope had been alerted to their activities moments ago upon hearing the prolonged roar which had come from the control tower, which then prompted him to look outside his window which overlooked the entire factory. As a security guard for the factory, he knew it was his responsibility to protect the exports at all cost. He launched himself out of the window towards the two saboteurs in hopes to catch them by surprise. However the lanky one was well aware of what was going on. A simple sidestep was enough to have Elemenope come crashing to the floor, immediately the other Mafioso tied him up and strapped a bomb to his chest. No one was able to help Elemenope before the timer ran out.
Two men were rummaging around in a room nearby, where exactly he could not tell. The sounds came closer and closer and very soon they were in the same room as him. He saw two men; one tall and lanky, the other carrying an explosive device. Their plan became immediate to him, they were going to blow his palace up with him inside. The two began setting the device while Plexa buried himself in his hiding place.
side by side comparisons of the only two people we can pinpoint as the exact same from day 1. Aside from explosions and tall guy, anything else stand out?
EDIT: "The two began setting the device" vs "As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted." so they both require some sort of preparation or some sort of planning. Might be insignificant.
Makes mention to similarities of people that L had already made in his huge post on why to kill Truthbringer. Again he is rehashing information given in an attempt to be “active and useful”. But its not real use, its rehashing information.
On July 06 2009 13:29 ydg wrote: @foxglove seeds, if you do a simple google search, you see that they are poisonous, which may either be a byproduct of the script or a key indication of the mafioso. But, unless Plexa is some sort of botanist or whatever that works with poisonous foxglove seeds (I've never heard of them before), how does he get foxglove seeds as a weapon o_O. Remember, Plexa goes (probably) from INFO->CLUE and so we need to see what links TO foxglove seeds and not what foxgloves seeds links to.
How is Plexa going to go from "The flower that blooms in adversity is the most rare and beautiful of all" to foxglove? When someone shows me this connection, I'll vote Araav. But for now, it seems that the people who are adamantly trying to get him lynched are very suspicious.
Also, clues tend to NOT be many things from a person's profile, but a few select details (from my experience, Plexa may be doing it differently) that are heavily emphasized. Thus the vx70GTOJudgexv is very weak, imo, because why would he be connected to so many different things? The main points of Mr Julia are probably the noobiness (ineptness->inertinept lol), this weird pulsating thing, and this rage, which, like I said before, may be because of the greenness of the character.
All in all, I'd say L's analysis seems the most logical to me.
Instantly dismisses Araav, who was a very good link (only person who really links to flowers in this case). The vx70GTOJudgexv clues are weak as he stated and meant to be such, his reaction was needed for behavioural analysis. However, YDG defends both Araav, and Judge almost as soon as he sees my analysis. But wait, he said he likes giving his own analysis way up above as of day 2, but he doesn’t provide any of his own, instead he says L’s is sound and logical. He still doesn’t contribute anything sound, but does give a link to inertinept that’s weak as hell.
On July 06 2009 13:31 ydg wrote: Also, isn't it interesting how quick Pyrrh is to support BC's (weak) clue analysis, just as how quick he was to support his platform?
and the attack finally begins. He attacks me personally based on someone supporting me instantly, although Pyrr disagrees with my analysis of judge seen
On July 06 2009 13:15 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: On the entusman thing: entusman to enterman seems highly unlikely to me. Also, So No Fek has "entusman" in his profile, too. There are even more Entus fans, I'm sure.
Also, with the Truthbringer thing. If L's analysis is correct, that's way too many clues for one Day post, especially without Snow in active. Could be that only one is intentional, but I can't imagine Plexa thinking that 5 separate links to the same guy in one post on Day 2 makes sense. I mean I did something like that, but it was a novice game and it was Day 5 or so. Still, more links increase the odds and that's a lot of links.
Oh shit, that was before YDG’s attack.
As well as pyrr supporting L, but wait, he can’t support us both?
In closing people, we have someone who is seemingly being active, while not actively contributing anything useful, and just rehashing information given by other players, but by quoting larger posts, he can appear to be helping.
Remember he A) advocated that people opt for snow (he said he voted for it) to begin with, then opted for fog after others were set on it after arguments by L myself and others. B) he stayed relatively useless, then as soon as he was called out, he makes a valid reason of why he was inactive that any player would normally accept, then goes and breaks that reason to post shoddy analysis, and then rehash more information already given C) He wants us to locate the priest. We don’t need to know the priest as the only job they have is hiding till their resurrect is done. And finding the priest out only helps mafia, it means we would have to go rain (giving mafia 5 KP) to stop the bomber, and then they stack kills and kill priest anyway or force meds elsewhere to take out other targets while sniping the priest before his powers swap. Untop of that he wants to use the priest over and over to get a group of confirmed townies when a game won’t last more than 2 full uses most likely. The logic is faulty and surprisingly people overlook it. D) rehashes more information, then as soon as specific people are targeted from analysis, one solid one not, he opts to defend both of them. WHY, judge already had a reason given by me to get a reaction, but YDG gave us even more, why defend someone with a weak connection that no one would lynch him on? To protect one of his own. He also defends Araav who has a good connection to him, and also someone who has been inactive a large chunk of the game. E) attacks me for having a supporter who is someone actually supporting multiple peoples analysis.
These are all major things mafia do to sidetrack the town. YDG obviously wants you to suspect me, as killing me off would remove the double lynches from the town. He also wants top KP for mafia, and a priest found. If you need more information than this to kill him, we won’t last long at all.
These two posts are L's analysis on truthbringer and My own on YDG
These two should be the only two considered for lynching today, and I am bumping them to prevent them from being buried and missed.
On July 07 2009 11:12 Malongo wrote: Ok since L is taking a good point and nobody sane will risk following me ill change and follow him this time. Hey look at your list look who is next after the 3 first... yeah heavonearth. Im going with truthbringer because: a) Ls clue analisis is decent. b) This lynch is a gamble anyways. c) Again Ls behavioral analisis is decent. So this gamble is more likely to give us more "implied odds" in case of success. If we fail... we lynch heavonearth . For weather i think that snow is the best this time. Sunny is useless, rain too because angel protection is doubled on target, that means we get 2 people protected anyways and i really think mafia wont double their hits until they found one of their hits didnt pass. So we have fog and snow. Fog is good, it gives us -1 kp. However we wont be able to make a checklists of these lists (not too important) and we lose the chance to get a countercheck to our list of clues. I think this will be the only day when we are not in a bad position to get more clues. Next day we wil need to decrease mafia kp to assure that mbh gets back and then rain to protect him. So im voting SNOW
First off You don't even know how rain works, and the fact your opting for more clues over less mafia KP means your an idiot. MBH has what, 20 pages of behavioural analysis to use (the kid can snipe people insanely easily off that) and your like "hey guys lets lose 5 people tonight"
And didnt you learn anything last game by sucking on L's nuts? he got a green mayor killed, caused the vice to suicide, and protected a 100% mafia, and you say his shit is sane, just wow.
YDG you may have started said discussion on fog, yet you went from Vote snow, to vote rain, to vote fog, to then advocating rain. So because you started a discussion doesn't mean you instituted it, and if you read the analysis i posted on you you would realize I showed that shite.
So just stop.
And yes day is extended by 24 hours from the end time plexa posted previously
Most of the other points were dealt with previously L, so stuff it. My original reason for killing YDG was based on previous behaviour in different games, which till now has been his trend, guess what, he's now shown red, your hopping on the save YDG bandwagon, malongo on yours, etc... more seems like the red team is jumping out on your side bud. as for araav? MY strongest clue was on the flowers growing in adversity, which more people have run with. Just where you linked multiple things to truthbringer, most likely only 1 of those is an actual link provided he is the mafia in question. As for me being more likely to be the godfather? no, and I've given reasons why it would make no sense for me to be mafia period based off what I've done, sorry bud, but you can call me GF or mafia, but you and I both know I'm not, my actions have done just that, yours however create chaos and disorder, which is What mafia would do, but as from your play last game I will admit you could just being a moron again.
Its been said by me previously but may have been overlooked as alot of stuff seems to. We are not guarenteed a red hit on this lynch, as its a gamble regardless of who's killed. IE if we fail to kill a mafia and vote rain Mafia stack hits and kill priest (provided meds even know who to protect and mafia knows who priest is). Or if we vote anything but rain, bomber can bomb him.
This means we must have fog up to drop KP down, and hope mafia hasn't found the priest. Less people dead is the best outcome. So everyone please vote fog.
On July 06 2009 04:08 TruthBringer wrote: Is it worth analyzing on priest so that an angel can protect him or should we just hope the mafia don't figure out who he is?
On July 06 2009 04:08 TruthBringer wrote: Is it worth analyzing on priest so that an angel can protect him or should we just hope the mafia don't figure out who he is?
Uhhh I think that publicly analyzing who the priest is would be a very bad idea.
I understand your point. But if we leave it alone . . . the mafia are more likely to figure out who the priest is than the 2 angels.
Anyways, other people can throw in their opinions on the subject.
To be helpful, theres some quality posts by truthbringer to weigh into voting with
On July 08 2009 13:50 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: From voting thread:
On July 08 2009 13:30 redtooth wrote: i change my vote to abstain. please get truthbringer killed.
you know what would help with that... IF YOU CHANGED YOUR VOTE TO TRUTHBRINGER YOU RETARDED PLEDGE I can't think of any other reason why you would post something like that except if you knew truthbringer is red and gonna die and you want to look for that happening, but you don't want a mystic to be able to check you since they can't check abstainers.
I guess this could mean redtooth knows TruthBringer is innocent and wants to get his vote off of co-mafia YDG and by abstaining he won't be among those looking suspicious for picking the innocent TruthBringer + won't be able to be checked by the Mystic.
Chances are your right on the dot with this. This almost confirms redtooth as pledge. So hes jumping off ydg to go on the abstain list. This means hes trying to hide where he can't be checked and most likely trying to protect gf/bomber, or at the very least a reg mafia, and with his vote switch dropping the vote count on ydg, it almost guarentees truthbringers death.
Seems to me hes aiming to push a) a townie to death over his fellow mafia or b) protect the gf/bomber by sacrificing another red.
Mr. Julia, the mystery unraveled. It took looking seriously through profiles, and I found the bastard.
First off Mr. Julia is none other than Pyrrhuloxia.
Lets quote the characteristics of him and you will see.
On July 06 2009 03:42 Plexa wrote:
There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out.
Four Mafia had entered, but only three had returned to the exit. All three of them instantly knew what had happened to Mr Julia and rushed over to the safe room to bring him back home. vivi57 was the last security guard on duty and was know well aware that the place had been hit by the Mafia. He was hiding around a corner, near the safe room, hoping the Mafia would leave him be. However, the instant the 3 Mafia passed the corner he was struck down by a large faintly warm object. He fell to the ground dazed and confused, but could make out 3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs. The three Mafia noted that he was still alive and opened fire on vivi57 – the sheer intensity of the bullets severed vivi57’s body in two.
Now, if you look at the entire passage for Mr.Julia It starts with him opening a safe, Him changing colour after burning himself Attacking fishball by jumping on him and beating him up Passing out Being held over his compatriots back and being psychedelic
one link in his profile is http://hegesonic.blogspot.com/ from this blog you get this link embedded near the top of the first post
Watch this video, IT is super important.
It opens with the man in a beige shirt, black pants and red hair taking an elevator down to a locked door, which requires him entering a passcode to get in. He goes in, starts an experiment during a lightning storm with ends up blasting his lab, and himself into a new world where he swims to safety. HE is now wearing a black shirt and beige pants! A change in colour. And in the midst of the destruction of his lab, a red fireball followed by lightning seem to slam into his lab. Fire changing his colour He is captured and with the help of another prisoner escapes and gets a gun.
This gun gets stronger the more you charge it (it also pulses a bit) Near the end he is saved by the prisoner who saves him who fights with another guard by jumping on him and beating him in the face. And in the end the main guy drags himself to a leaver and pulls it which turns his enemy into chunky bits (bloody pulp), and passes out.
His fellow prisoner then puts him over his back, and hops onto a beasts back and flies away.
Which is insanely trippy. This second link fits very well as plexa chose to separate the two areas with clues to mr Julia, like he was taking a clue from a new place.
sweet, foxglove person. WE believed that this person was araav on the basis of the flowers bloom in adversity (i would disagree based off the swap post as he would never eat cheese he had poisoned).
However, one other person can fit this style.
Ecomania.
He has almost nothing based off his profile other than his name and that hes from germany.
Foxglove plants are found in germany (google and its up). Next look at his name Eco-mania This shows he is a maniac.
but specifically for the environment, which could lead to him being a terrorist. Dropping the poison into the cheese would be helping the environment in the end as it would remove the people destroying it (a factory would create waste product and the like that damages the surroundings). Planting a bomb is normal for terrorists, and tieing up people as hostages is normal as well. I believe he best fits the job as the seed dropper.