|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
The first thing that jumps out is ROFL @ KF91's and iNfuNdiBuLuM's voting patterns! Talk about voting like a mafioso. In particular, look at Day 10 where 5/8 of Ninja4ever.'s votes came from known mafia, and KF91 voted for DamageControl and Ninja4ever.
I think the odds that KF91 is mafia must be like 99% or more, now. qrs and ydg, do you guys agree that we should lynch KF91 first?
Moving on, jtan's voting pattern doesn't exactly clear his name. He did vote to lynch 5 mafia, true, but they were 100% going to get lynched, anyway. Even KF91 and iNfuNdiBuLuM were voting for fellow mafia at that point.
HotZhot's voting pattern looks weird more than anything else. Somewhat incriminating, too. It definitely doesn't clear him from suspicion, but unlike jtan, he doesn't have a horde of clues pointing at him.
Lastly, DTDominion and Ziel appear to have been completely inactive for the entire game.
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 21 2008 07:45 qrs wrote:You have the wrong kill for Day 19. Mr. Blue is + Show Spoiler +Wind swiftly blew down from overhead as SiZ.Fantasy left the local 7-11 with his bright blue berry slushie in hand. Little did he know his life was in danger as he walked down the street towards his house. His soon-to-be killer jumped from roof to roof waiting for the right moment to strike. When SiZ.Fantasy accidentally dropped the lid to his drink was that moment. He bent over to pick it up, being the good little law abiding citizen he was he, but never got up because as SiZ.Fantasy was doing so a blade sliced him up like confetti. The wave of stones is Cottonmouth. Anyway, it's quite clear that Mr. Blue is a lurker: Day 6: chainsaw = row of blades = lurker spines. Second attack is dodged: lurker is the only unit whose attack can be dodged. Day 7: umbrella tip = blade again. Day 9: Mr. Blue = ambushing to cut off retreat: somewhat lurker-like. Day 10: row of blades kill multiple things simultaneously: killer is not seen. Day 11: blades (of a different sort); killer not seen. Day 12: row of blades; killer not seen. Day 18: hidden agenda=not seen. Day 19: blade kill; not seen. Day 20: row of blades; killer not seen. FWIW, MoC and others noticed this theme long before there was so much evidence for it. edit: ah, I didn't see your DT theory. That would also be a good fit for blades + not seen. My assumption was that SiZ.Fantasy's killing was done by Mr. Blonde. Hopping across rooftops might mean flying, and "a blade sliced him up like confetti" sounds like what would happen if Mr. Blonde sliced you up with his propeller blade. But I agree the last part can apply to Mr. Blue as well. (Does Chuiu do "dual meaning" clues? )
I didn't follow the clues between Cottonmouth and bwdero, but thanks for letting me know. I've updated my list of clues appropriately.
Something I noticed in Mr. Blue's clues that no one has talked about yet is his recent theme of using large machinery: - Day 11: he uses "a rather over sized excavator". - Day 16: he uses "a giant buzzsaw". - Day 20: he uses "a huge buzz-saw contraption"
I think we need to find a way to link this theme to jtan (or someone else). Until then, I'm still not convinced that jtan is Mr. Blue.
Also, we need to figure this stuff out tonight. Now that everyone on the Showtime! and Mandalor lists has been proven innocent, the mafia have no reason to keep qrs alive. Furthermore, once qrs, ydg, and myself are all dead, there might be no one left to analyse the clues!
Time is running out for the mafia, but it is also running out for us...
|
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
qrs, you put way too much confidence in jtan = Mr. Blue. Why are you rushing this when we still have to explain why Mr. Blue used large machines, to name one clue aspect that hasn't been linked with jtan?
I'm going to look at Mr. Blue = DTDominion either now, or after my friend comes over and goes home.
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 21 2008 09:51 ydg wrote: The only thing that might be a curveball is if infun wasn't Blonde but was Blue. We'll just see at Day. No, we won't "see at Day" because in all likelihood we'll be dead.
And you guys aren't listening to me -_-. How many times do I have to point out that Mr. Blue uses large machines in the later days to do his killing? That's obviously a clue. But how does it relate to jtan, or anyone? If we cannot find a link, then there's a good chance that we are WRONG.
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Here's something to get the ball rolling: Dominion Construction http://www.dominionco.com/
Saying that's the link between large machines and DTDominion is a stretch, but it's the best we've got so far. Then again, KF91 and Mr. Orange was a stretch at first, but then ydg's clever interpretation of "91" changed everything. ydg, think you can pull out a similar feat for Mr. Blue?
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 21 2008 10:10 jtan wrote: This game is not at all over, I actually think we have a great chance of loosing if the following happens:
KF91 turns green (very unlikely imo, the cut off clue is really good, but there IS always a chance) After that you will probably lynch me in some kind of desperation. In that case 2 innocents dead, and mafia gets to kill SIX townies. Take away the six that makes the bests argument in this thread and we have pretty much lost.
Therefore, this is the time to activate and try to get all the connections right, not to stop posting. Exactly.
WE CANNOT AFFORD TO GET MR BLUE WRONG! If Mr. Blue is not jtan and not DTDominion, THE TOWN WILL LOSE, because by the time they lynch jtan and DTDominion, 2 days will have passed, so 6 more townies will be dead. qrs/ydg, can either of you name more more than 6 townies who are actually analysing clues? If we're wrong and neither of those people is Mr. Blue, then the town will be left taking shots in the dark trying to find the real Mr. Blue. Hell, for all we know, the last mafioso could come in and pretend to analyse the Mr. Blue clues, or voting patterns, or whatever, and just keep misleading the town. In any case, it wouldn't take much longer for the remaining semi-active townies to die off, and then the game would be essentially over: Mafia win.
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 21 2008 11:09 CDRdude wrote: So, with infuwhatever being red, does this prove my innocence? Yes, you are innocent. Now please help us determine who Mr. Blue is.
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 21 2008 10:10 qrs wrote: Well, I wasn't going to post again, but since I'm directly addressed...
1) The reasons I prefer lurkers to DTs for Mr. Blue: -chainsaws and buzzsaws = rows of blades -aznvaliance dodges his attack -he often remains unseen--but not always The reasons I disagree with Mr. Blue being a lurker (or even a DT) are: 1. A lurker wouldn't drive large machines with blades, nor would a lurker use a car crusher to kill its victims. The same goes for a DT. Say all you want about the weapons looking like lurker spines or DT blades: the fact is, Mr. Blue is not a lurker and not a DT. 2. If Mr. Blue were a lurker, then there would be clues involving him coming out of the ground or something. But there are none of that sort. 3. People dodge attacks in mafia ALL THE TIME. Unless it's happening consistently, it is NOT a clue.
2) Large machinery: Don't think it's a clue, personally: -the largeness can be explained as a way for him to pick up cars, slice into houses (thus killing without being seen) -if it is a clue, we have yet to tie it to anyone, DTDominion included. edit: wrote that before bill's last post, which offers a rather strained connection to Dominion. ... Okay, honestly are you fucking stupid? No one else in this game killed their victims using giant machines. Nor in the last mafia game. Yet Mr. Blue has done it THREE TIMES. You think Chuiu is so uncreative that he HAD to use large machines to get those other clues across, three times even?
Moreover, what the fuck kind of retarded argument is "we haven't matched it to anybody therefore it's not a clue"? Again, are you fucking stupid? EVERY SINGLE CLUE IN THIS GAME WAS NOT MATCHED TO ANYONE THE FIRST TIME IT WAS DISCOVERED.
3) If jtan turns out to be innocent, we just turn around and lynch DTDominion. We lose one night. At this point, no big deal. And what if DTDominion is innocent? Town loses, that's what.
You know, for a sec it seemed like you were actually helping the town. But now you're just going back to the way you were the entire game: being a fucking retard. Fine, don't post anymore. If you're so stupid as to think that large machines is not a clue, then you'd just be holding us back, anyway.
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
2) Large machinery: Don't think it's a clue, personally: [...] -if it is a clue, we have yet to tie it to anyone, DTDominion included. I still cannot believe someone could use such an obviously flawed argument. Honestly, I have no respect for qrs, now. That is by far the stupidest thing I have read in this entire topic.
Thinking like this is exactly the reason why qrs was wrong SO MANY TIMES when we still had Ace, Plexa, etc. around. The fact that it's not matched to anyone yet means WE DO NOT KNOW WHO MR BLUE IS and we need to sit down and figure it out.
Look at how easily we matched up the clues for Mr. Blonde and Mr. Orange once we knew who they were. The fact that we CAN'T do the same for Mr. Blue means we are either missing some connection, or our suspects are flat-out wrong.
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
Alright, I've carefully read over the clues for Mr. Blue. I think you will all be interested to read what I have to say, but first, a preface.
The problem with qrs is that he is impatient: he links a handful of clues to a person, and then that's it for him: he is 100% convinced. He doesn't push for the kind of thorough, all-encompassing clue analysis that we've seen from the superior detectives in this game, such as Plexa.
There are so many more clues in those posts that qrs ignores. I point them out and he ignores them, his mind set in stone. Granted I was too harsh on him earlier: I get like that when I see people say mind-blowingly stupid things. I also said some things that I now realize were wrong. My apologies.
Without further ado, I will show you all the PROPER, THOROUGH way to connect Mr. Blue to jtan.
jtan = Mr.Blue
Mr. Blue shares an astounding number of traits with a lurker, and the situations he's involved in share several similarities with the photo in jtan's profile. qrs was on the right track but, like I said, he stopped short. There are even more connections between Mr. Blue and jtan's photo, in addition to the ones he saw.
Here is his photo. Keep it in mind while you read the clue interpretations below.
Day 1: No connections, which worries me a bit. Nevertheless...
Day 6: - "Mr. Blue pulled out the secret weapon he always wanted to kill someone with, a chainsaw." A lurker kills with an attack that tears through the enemy, not unlike a chainsaw would tear through a person. - "Mr. Blue lunged toward him aiming for his chest but aZnvaLiaNce dodged to the side and screamed out in pain as the chainsaw shredded down the side of his arm." Analogous to a marine attempting to dodge a lurker's spines, but getting caught by the edge. (I hate it when that happens.) - "Mr. Blue went in for another attack but this time aZnvaLiaNce was quicker and dived past Mr. Blue..." Now this actually matches the scene in jtan's photo, where a marine completely dodges a lurker's spines. - "...as he broke the chain of the saw on the metal part of the cubicle wall." The lurker spines in the photo end at the cliff wall.
Day 7: - "Mr. Blue was first up, and he was outside the house of fusionsdf. He noticed him in the living room and decided to try to sneak in from the back. All windows locked he tried the back door. When he was left with no other option he decided to kick in the door which alerted fusionsdf. He ran to the back of his house to see Mr. Blue coming in." This is analogous to the marines attacking the zerg expo in the photo. The expo is at the top of the main (the living room), the cliffs (the locked windows) prevent the marines from coming in any way but the ramp (the back door). In response to the invasion, zerg sends units from the expo to the ramp (fusionsdf runs to the back of his house) where they see the marines coming in (fusionsdf sees Mr. Blue coming in). - "He stabbed at Mr. Blue and flailed at him trying to fight him off but Mr. Blue evaded the blows." Another evasion scene, similar to the photo though with roles reversed. - "He broke the handle hitting fusionsdf over the head with it and discarded it. ... He grabbed up the umbrella again and stabbed down at fusionsdf. The tip was enough to do severe damage to fusionsdf, and he stabbed through his chest as if it were nothing." Lurker spines look exactly like umbrellas without their handles. They also tear straight through marines, as if the marines were nothing.
Day 9: - "He gasped in horror and turned in retreat but found Mr. Blue in his way. MTF panicked, feeling his life in serious danger, and plowed through Mr. Blue toward his car." The verb "plowed" commonly means to dig up ground, e.g. to plow a field for crops. A lurker plows the ground when it burrows. An alternative interpretation is that to run through a lurker, you would have to move through -- or "plow" through -- the ground under which it's burrowed. - "MTF was almost there when a flying object met contact with his neck and severed his head right off." Analogous to a marine running away from a lurker, but the spines travel faster and catch up to it, killing it. Not to mention the analogy with lurker spines cutting up marines and Mr. Blue cutting up his victims.
Day 10: - "smurfingchobo was the last the mafia were after that night. He let his dogs out before going to bed and they started barking at something in the yard. Neither smurfingchobo nor the dogs could see who it was but they all heard him moving about." He travels like a lurker: you can hear him moving about the ground (or in the case of a lurker, under the ground) but you cannot see him. The yard is earth that a lurker could burrow under, as well. - "The barking came to a stop as blades met their mark on each dogs head killing them all. smurfingchobo took a few steps closer to see one of his dogs decapitated from Mr. Blue's blades when he soon met the same fate as they had." Similar to a lurker sending its spines tearing through the dogs like a group of marines, killing them all, then doing the same to their owner.
Day 11: - "Mr. Blue was driving a rather over sized excavator..." An excavator is a machine that digs holes in the ground, like a lurker is a unit that digs holes in the ground. - "Pretty soon HeRoS)Pink and his van were in tiny pieces." Like how a marine is shredded to pieces by a lurker.
Day 16: - "But what he didn't expect was someone to kill him without even setting foot in his home. A giant buzzsaw cut in from the side of his house and tore his body apart from the behind." Imagine a lurker attacking a group of marines behind a supply depot wall-in. The spines go straight through the depots and tear apart the marines.
Day 18: - "Amber[LighT] had died first from sharp blades that tore at his skin." Again, like how a marine is killed by lurker spines that tear at his skin.
Day 19: - I believe the first clue here refers to Mr. Blonde, not Mr. Blue. See my iNfuNdiBuLuM = Mr. Blonde post for details. And thanks to jtan (ironically) for pointing out that "Wind swiftly blew down from overhead" links to the propeller on Mr. Blonde's head, yet another reason to believe this clue points to him and not Mr. Blue.
Day 20: - "Mr. Blue didn't wish to risk getting caught either, the police undoubtedly on their way already, so he went for his stealth kill from outside the building approach. He backed his truck up to the room Fen was in and slid out a huge buzz-saw contraption. With a little alignment and some prep work he flipped a switch and it went to work. Cutting cleanly and swiftly through the wall Fen had no chance to survive or get out of its way." The same situation as Day 16, again analogous to a lurker killing marines by attacking unimpeded through a supply depot wall-in.
Based on the overwhelming evidence above, we can comfortably conclude that jtan = Mr. Blue.
|
|
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
I will now PM all remaining townies and direct them to my above post.
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 22 2008 09:15 jtan wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2008 08:44 Bill307 wrote:L would say there is only a 10% to 12% chance that you are Mr. Blue, jtan. Which in normal people language means 95%+. It certainly doesn't help that once the jtan-is-innocent ball got rolling, you started trying to refute everything we've deduced so far, even the links to Mr. Blonde and Mr. Orange that were all-but-airtight. That was an unexpected consequence. I legitimately did think for a while that you might not be Mr. Blue, and wasn't pretending to defend you or trying to trap you into making those posts. But, that was before I read over the clues carefully. Once I started noticing links like plowing <--> burrowing, excavator <--> lurker burrow ability, and giant buzzsaws through the walls <--> lurker spines through depot wall, I realized qrs was right after all. Oh so you cleaverly set traps for me and I walked right into them? You are quite full of yourself. I didn't, but it would've been pretty awesome if I did.
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
That's a lot easier to do when the person you're disagreeing with didn't just say they were going to abandon the game and stop posting. That was very infuriating. It was like a big "Fuck you guys: my mind's made up and I'm done."
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 22 2008 10:37 qrs wrote:*sigh*. Can't you just say "I was wrong"? Nearly everything you have said in that post has been said before, by me or others (like in this summary). You added the excavator connection, and the behind-the-depot thing. Also a strained analogy between cliffs and locked windows and ramps and back doors; also an mistaken connection with a flying object (that was California Mountain Snake's metal disk). As for the 'clue' that caused you to blow your gasket in the first place, when I politely disagreed with it--it looks like you have decided that giant machinery is not the point after all. First of all, that summary is weak in my opinion. Not only is it missing a lot of clues, the style in which the clues are presented is unconvincing. I find it's much more effective to actually quote the relevant sentences, for one thing (so that people can see them right there without having to go back and look for what Chuiu wrote). It's summaries like yours that lead to mistakes like being convinced that Mr. Blonde is a fast and agile person rather than a muscular guy with a propeller on his head. The exact wording is very important. Even a verb like "plowed" can be significant, but it would easily get lost if someone paraphrased that clue.
Second, I was right in that you guys weren't paying enough attention to those large machines. That's how I came up with the excavator=burrowing clue and the lurker-attacks-through-depots clues. In contrast, it sounded like you were ready to completely ignore those parts, satisfied with saying "well he killed him with blades so that's good enough".
|
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
On July 22 2008 11:29 jtan wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2008 11:20 Bill307 wrote:Btw, jtan is soooo going to kill us for all of this. Actually you kind of deserve to die after messing up so much but never mind that It looks like none of us will survive this game, so yeah let's be friends and party this last day together Okay sure, I'll go to a party with you tonight.
Gee, I hope nothing bad happens to me while I'm out partying with jtan on Night 20!
Edit: qrs you should come party too. No hard feelings, eh?
|
Bill307
Canada9103 Posts
That's quite a lot of determination you have, there.
But seriously, if you're going to argue that infundibulum is Mr. Blue, then you also have to compare your links to the ones between infundibulum and Mr. Blonde, and show that the links to Mr. Blue are stronger -- which I believe they are not.
Furthermore, you would have to re-analyse Mr. Blonde as being HotZhot. Now originally they fit very well together, but after so many references to Mr. Blonde as a big, strong guy, among other things that fit infundibulum a lot better than HotZhot, the connection to HotZhot is a lot weaker than it used to be.
So in addition to showing that infundibulum is more likely to be Mr. Blue than Mr. Blonde, you also have to show HotZhot is more likely to be Mr. Blonde than infundibulum is. IMO, that is not possible.
I have a suspicion that the Day post will contain neither Mr. Blonde nor Mr. Blue. In that case, we should stick to the plan under the assumption that infundibulum was Mr. Blonde. The only case where we should lynch HotZhot over jtan is if Mr. Blonde is explicitly mentioned as being alive on Day 21. And of course, if jtan turns up green then we lynch HotZhot after KF91 -- unless someone steps up to do some detective work that finds a better lynch candidate.
|
|
|
|