[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On December 07 2016 08:55 Tumblewood wrote: worst case scenario: blue role dies ways to prevent it: glad we figured that one out and I think I did say "if things don't go according to plan we play mafia as normal" Point taken. You mentioned that you are leaning town on NeverUnlucky (specifically you said not neutral). What's your reasoning for that read? | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 07 2016 11:09 NeverUnlucky wrote: I disagree, but it's pointless to argue about theoretical/non-game related stuff. And ray doesn't have that series of posts. Same question to you. You said you had a town lean on Tumblewood, even though you mentioned that nothing has happened this game. How come he's leaning town? | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios. I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me. Ray looks sketchy to me. TW looks Town. Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions: - TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe - TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios. I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me. Ray looks sketchy to me. TW looks Town. I have the opposite impression of NU's explanation. All I did was ask the two of them what their townreads were. NU reacted by distancing himself. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote: This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 08 2016 10:19 NeverUnlucky wrote: I did touch that topic actually : I am confused here. A blue died last night which is not the scenario tw or I described N0. Can you clarify what the coincidence is? My problem was that you and TW totally flushed out the scenario where both medic and cop are alive and go uncountered, and everything else is handy dandy, while leaving a very brief mention or ignoring entirely all other scenarios. Whether or not Koshi flipped blue is not important given that mafia didn't know what he was. Given that it was Koshi dying, I would give it a higher chance that the mafia weren't trying to bluesnipe at all. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote: They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it. Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW. So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie? If you and TW are interested in using math to demonstrate whether or not cop should claim, why the sudden lack of interest today? Exo made a strong push in favor of cop claiming. TW made a short mention that cop should only claim if he checks red. You haven't mentioned anything at all. I would expect that TW should be fighting hard against Exo and you to have some sort of opinion as well. You two were so passionate yesterday but you don't seem to care today. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 08 2016 04:57 cakepie wrote: I have to call it a night here. Figure that most of you NA folks are going about your day with work, school and whatnot. Hopefully at least some of you are still up when I get back on tomorrow.
If NU+TW is the scumteam, I don't think they were trying to push a bad plan at all. The simplest explanation would be to feign activity, and most oftentimes that comes in the form of game math. In my experiences, mafia tend to buddy up more when they're the most active ones, and draw distance when town are the most active ones. If the two mafia were the active ones in the middle of a quiet town, I could totally see them patting each other on the back for being active. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 02:14 NeverUnlucky wrote: And like you, I had no success in engaging in a conversation with Ray. His response to my asking what his reads on you and exo were was: where he completely disregarded my question and my point on him not pushing us. I think it's quite clear that I have been pushing on you two, because that's all I've been doing this game. The only thing I haven't done is post my final verdict, which you seem to be really worried about. This is twice that you have asked me to push on you both. Not only that, you posted a couple more times about other people's perception of you: On December 09 2016 03:18 NeverUnlucky wrote: ... TW, update on your scum-filter-dive of me? On December 09 2016 03:20 NeverUnlucky wrote: ... I find it hard to believe that his stance on CRay, ExO and me haven't changed since, especially since I think that his reads weren't strong at the time. And just alluding back to the post where you distanced yourself from TW when all I did was ask for you townread: On December 07 2016 11:31 NeverUnlucky wrote: His posts don't seem like he's trying to appear good rather like he's saying what he thinks. However, I am wary that he may be attempting to buddy because of these two posts: I don't understand why anybody would think that I am a night target for something that is not a blue snipe. idk, I feel like he's either over-evaluating my play or attempting to be on my good side. Here he set me and him in a separate category, and it made me uneasy. Meh, he's more town than maf to me. It's quite clear that you are overly concerned with other people's perception of you, and that's a huge scumtell. If you want to know my opinion of ExO and cakepie, I think they're town for now. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 04:33 Tumblewood wrote: ray, accusing someone of distancing is not an argument for them being scum. also, being concerned with one's perception is a pretty weak tell, because both town and scum do it + Show Spoiler + turns out no one likes being lynched You argue that being worried about perception can be either town or mafia, and it's incredibly subjective, that I agree with, which is why I pushed on him. However, you came to NU's defense before letting him speak for himself, which is a direct contradiction with your argument. Just a few posts ago you were asking for other people's scumreads on NU so you can gain some perspective. You don't actually seem that interested after all. | ||
Chairman Ray
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Ah fuck it let's do it | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 05:26 Tumblewood wrote: I did want someone to help play devil's advocate and then saw yet another example of the trend where every single game he's scum he dies D1 because he's painfully obvious. and there is no contradiction in my argument. I wasn't defending him so much as calling out your shitty argument.. I don't buy this at all. You argued how NU acted could be either town or mafia, and it's subjective. But the way you are acting now, and have been throughout the game, you already have your mind made up that he's town. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 05:26 Tumblewood wrote: I did want someone to help play devil's advocate and then saw yet another example of the trend where every single game he's scum he dies D1 because he's painfully obvious. and there is no contradiction in my argument. I wasn't defending him so much as calling out your shitty argument.. Ok I'm trying to think about this from your perspective. Chairman Ray made a very polarizing post giving only the mafia perspective of NU's gameplay. I feel that NU's gameplay also makes sense from a town perspective. I'm going to point out this flaw to Chairman Ray. Is this the correct interpretation? | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 05:55 Tumblewood wrote: I don't fully understand your interpretation so I will rephrase my own: ray is making a point that NU is distancing from me ergo NU is scum (maybe I misinterpreted your post) -> that's not a valid argument. in the same post ray says NU cares about his image too much ergo NU is scum -> I will point out that that's a bad tell to use because it is subjective and not useful. This is not exactly what I meant, but given that ExO gave me shit for the same thing, I don't think you're intentionally misconstruing my posts, so I'll reevaluate on this. ##Unvote | ||
Chairman Ray
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At the start of D1, NU and TW had townreads on one another. There was no pressure on them from anybody else. All I did was ask each of them, in a very neutral manner, what their townread was. If you were town and genuinely believed that the other person was town as well, you would just give me your town reads. Instead, NU posted his scumreads on TW about how TW is overpocketing him. The posts that NU were criticizing were posted BEFORE NU said that TW was towny. So when TW was overpocketing NU, NU should be suspicious at that time, but instead, he gave TW a townread. It wasn't until I asked him for his reasonings did he finally post his suspicions. From a mafia perspective, this makes perfect sense. Chairman Ray asked both TW and NU what their townreads were. Oh crap, he's onto us, better not seem too friendly. From a town perspective, this doesn't make a lot of sense. Secondly, NU in two instances asked about what other people's reads of him were. At those times, TW had a strong townread on him, and only I was really on him. He argued that I wasn't pushing on him, so I guess he didn't feel any pressure at all. I would expect town to only worry about their perception if they are under the gun. So given that the overall vibe was positive towards NU, why was he so pre-occupied with other people's reads on him? | ||
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On December 09 2016 06:47 Hopeless1der wrote: ##Chairman Ray for president *fistbump* | ||
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On December 09 2016 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote: TW was not slammed when 2 people voted him, Either one of the voters (CR and cake) were scum OR TW is scum. Technically its possible that everyone involved is wrong, but fuck that noise, I'm calling TW scum, Good fucking game. Cop, dont claim until you absolutely have to at end of Nightphase. If TW claims cop, lynch that piece of garbage. I will not accept him claiming cop this game. ##Unvote##Vote: Tumblewood I fully understand that this day is going to be a no lynch. I'm like 51/49 on lynhching TW today. On December 09 2016 07:19 Tumblewood wrote: tonight I will have a lot of time, which I will use to post extensive/organized reads (actually I have about 45 minutes to answer questions now). given that I had two votes and no one hammered, we can eliminate the following scum teams: ExO + NU ExO + 1der 1der + NU all other teams (there are 15 possible) would either need an extra town vote to hammer or include me. I strongly believe that both members of the scum team fall within cakepie, ray, and 1der. What about the scenario where a scum just wasn't online at the time? | ||
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Chairman Ray
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Here's a couple examples: On December 08 2016 15:24 Tumblewood wrote: gotta check cakepie's meta to see if being an asshat is his normal meta + Show Spoiler + inb4 this is also a subversive, manipulative trick designed intentionally to buddy NU and mislead town I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote: The case against [list] [*]From his first posts concerning me, cakepie is concerned with indicting me + Show Spoiler [on the grounds of enjoying non-blue-fo…] + On December 06 2016 17:00 cakepie wrote: What a convenient thing to say now. ayyyyyy [*]Continuing, he explains how all of my actions were deliberate attempts to mislead and misinform the town. How on Earth do you reach the conclusion that my plan, quoted here, uses devices and rhetoric subversively when obviously the mistake wasn't even intentional? Cakepie overall spends several posts selling my mistakes, contained in obviously low-effort posts (as in, spending little time typing them, not thinking about them) as intentional. Keen to assume mistakes as intentional is always scummy; town isn't looking to paint others as scum without being totally convinced themselves... and also having decent reasons.Rels that one time. You also did the same thing when I pushed onto NU, defending him by saying that his actions could have been either town or mafia. What was your rationale for these defenses, or would you like to argue that town could have totally defended themselves like this too? | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164 #170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk #173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here. #180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives #182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain #185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum. #186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me. #203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU #205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do #213 fuck off #215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him #217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum. #228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum. #231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted? #234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game. Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum. CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum. ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia. Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two? I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad. I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 06:44 Chairman Ray wrote: My original case about NU still stands. At the start of D1, NU and TW had townreads on one another. There was no pressure on them from anybody else. All I did was ask each of them, in a very neutral manner, what their townread was. If you were town and genuinely believed that the other person was town as well, you would just give me your town reads. Instead, NU posted his scumreads on TW about how TW is overpocketing him. The posts that NU were criticizing were posted BEFORE NU said that TW was towny. So when TW was overpocketing NU, NU should be suspicious at that time, but instead, he gave TW a townread. It wasn't until I asked him for his reasonings did he finally post his suspicions. From a mafia perspective, this makes perfect sense. Chairman Ray asked both TW and NU what their townreads were. Oh crap, he's onto us, better not seem too friendly. From a town perspective, this doesn't make a lot of sense. Secondly, NU in two instances asked about what other people's reads of him were. At those times, TW had a strong townread on him, and only I was really on him. He argued that I wasn't pushing on him, so I guess he didn't feel any pressure at all. I would expect town to only worry about their perception if they are under the gun. So given that the overall vibe was positive towards NU, why was he so pre-occupied with other people's reads on him? | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 19:16 cakepie wrote: Hey craycray, anything for me? What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior - "i'd spite vote but won't" - unfair "pick one answer now" questions - voting after we've left off I'm okay with you pushing NU. I'd really like to see more people interact with H1 because H1 v TW doesn't give me a good baseline to evaluate H1 interactions with me. When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this: On December 09 2016 07:51 Chairman Ray wrote: Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded? | ||
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On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote: I don't think I can agree TW is mafia. I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game, and he's done some things that have looked scummy. But the type of posts he's made (particularly after #170), the big cases he posted, I don't think scum can fake that effort. A lot of people were tunneling him quite a bit but his reaction overall to that to me doesn't read scum now. I feel like pointing out that I'm singling you out for tunneling (I don't think I am) isn't really a town thing to post. To me, it screams "look at all these other people they are doing something just as bad." I don't think tunneling is necessarily scum-indicative. But these 2 players are the only players you've said anything about all game. I practically challenge you to give a read on anybody else and you just can't. You're so sure of TW and NU that you're going to stick to them non stop....and I don't buy it as a town trait. I think you are a scum player who is going to stick to those reads come hell or high water. I mean look at your above post. "I think we can all agree TW is mafia: why? That's all you are going to offer here? And you're basically saying NU is scum because he gave some shoddy answers....but I don't see how that makes you lock in on scum so hard here. I don't see it. How are you so sure. No I think it's much more likely you are scum. I feel that it's very difficult to get through to you because you are interpreting everything I say in the worst possible way when I didn't mean it that way. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 19:42 cakepie wrote: okay, but you haven't answered my questions. Here's my take on it The spite vote in itself wasn't the suspicious part for me. The spite vote combined with the timing of it was really fishy. Hopeless clearly stated that he wants to lynch TW: On December 09 2016 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote: ##Unvote##Vote: Tumblewood I fully understand that this day is going to be a no lynch. I'm like 51/49 on lynhching TW today. However, hopeless only voted after you and I rescinded our votes. He was on during the entire time, so he could have pushed it to 3 votes and maybe gotten the lynch. However he chose to vote after we rescinded when his vote was completely useless. Tumblewood answered a different one instead, and hopeless kept pushing. I think there was a little miscommunication here. I was about to interject and clarify it, but wanted to see how it would play out instead. In the end, hopeless did not ever correct Tumblewood on answering the wrong question, and decided to vote him anyways. To me that seems like Hopeless wasn't that interested in TW's answer anyways. With these three things combined, there's a bunch of ways you could interpret it, but the motive I'm concerned about is that Hopeless just wanted to distance himself from TW. It would give rise to the scenario where hopeless is scum with TW. That would also explain why TW seemed quite unconcerned with 3 people voting him at EOD. If I were town in that position, I would be begging people to get their votes off so that mafia couldn't hammer it. TW was unphased by it until after the day ended, and then proceeded to post a few big long posts, which would have made more sense to post before EOD. It's late and I'm not sure if I'm getting my read across, but to summarize, I think this is a possible scenario: Hopeless and TW are mafia together Hopeless thinks "oh crap, TW is under a lot of fire, everyone's on him but me. I better draw some distance too" Hopeless draws distance by doing the whole binary question thing and also threatening to vote him, but doesn't follow up on TW answer the question Chairman Ray and cakepie vote TW TW thinks "Well, I know for a fact that Hopeless won't kill me, and NU won't vote me either, so I'm safe" Chairman Ray and cakepie unvote TW Hopeless votes TW and says "I'm 51/49 on killing you!" That just one way I could interpret this really awkward exchange between TW and hopeless. I don't really see a scenario where hopeless is mafia and TW is town, that seems really weird to me. If hopeless is town and had good town intentions, I would like him to speak for himself, which is why I asked him earlier. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 19:44 ExO_ wrote: For starters: Isn't exactly a neutral entrance. You may have asked each of them what they thought, after your very first move in the game is to say you want to lynch both of them. However NU's filter does kinda look bad as I read it. It's really wishy washy all over the place. It makes it difficult for me, because I really don't like the way you've played CR and my immediate reaction to that has been to assume your scum. So let me ask you CR, assume for a second that TW is town, and NU is scum. Who would the 2nd scum be with NU? Yeah, after both you and TW gave me shit for the way I present my reads, I know that I fucked that up. If I see someone do something that has a clear mafia motive, but can also be interpreted from a town side, I just push them for being mafia, and accuse them for one of the many scenarios that could have occurred. If they tell me a valid town perspective, then we're great, but if they can't give me a perspective that makes sense coming from town, then lynch lynch lynch. I realized after both you and TW gave me shit for it that the push just falls flat due to some glaringly obvious logic flaws. TW reacting similarly to you was the only slight townread I have on him, and that was why I rescinded my vote on him before EOD. To your other question, if TW is town, NU is scum, my original suspicion was hopeless. This post gave me a slight yellow flag that I was keeping an eye on: On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote: They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it. Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW. So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie? He asked me about ExO and cakepie, but leaving hopeless out, which is a weak associative tell. If there continued to be this awkward silence between the two of them, that would have definitely been a red flag for me. However, after EOD with the hopeless-TW interaction, it's just too weird to believe that hopeless can be scum without TW. Also at the time, I had no case against hopeless besides his inactivity. NU hasn't been playing the last half of the game, so there's not much more to read into. Right now, I just want him to answer the case that I have already presented. My strongest read right now is still TW and NU. | ||
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I checked Koshi N0, which was why I didn't come out. I checked TW N1, and he's mafia. ##Vote: Tumblewood Catching up on the thread now. | ||
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@cakepie: Why did you fakeclaim? @NeverUnlucky: At the time, 2 cops have claimed. Why were you under the suspicion that one of them might be VT, and why did you vote on TW, despite claiming the possibility that he's VT? | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:04 NeverUnlucky wrote: Ray's claim is way too convenient, and I think TW is the real cop due to my reasoning in 331. ##Vote Chairman Ray If you hammer, please have the decency of telling your alignment while we wait for the end game post. How did you know game was going to end? SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP | ||
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On December 10 2016 09:59 cakepie wrote: I claimed at EoN. TW, why you no claim at EoN? Ray, why you no claim at EoN? Because I checked Koshi Reading through your gigantic case now. | ||
Chairman Ray
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On December 09 2016 23:05 cakepie wrote: Ray I need you to untunnel NU for a moment. Your reasons for scumming him are: 1. N0 planning, feigning activity? (same as TW) 2. D1 distancing from TW (NU+TW scum) 3. wanting you to push him 4. caring about how he is perceived I'm not saying that these aren't valid reasons. But I'm going to need you to try some good faith for a moment and consider these viewpoints: 1a. I have (weak? meta) reasons to see planning/mechanics as within the range of town?NU; #43 is a naive desire to have simple cop v mafia fakecop fights with no VTs fakeclaiming blue. 1b. #46 is a sound response to #45. With no VTs fakeclaiming blue, force scum to kill the doc N1 for a free flip without needing cop to check doc. Better plan than TW's careless crap; he's thinking as compared to TW's blindly enumerate. 2. The distancing argument relies on #87 + Show Spoiler + On December 07 2016 10:10 NeverUnlucky wrote: Same feeling for ray, but everyone else (besides you who I've a fetus of a town-lean on) is like ray for me cause 'not playing' IS bad. Pay attention to context. "fetus of a town-lean" for activity, since no one else is present/active -- only NU, TW, CR are around, and town?NU is in OMGUS CR mode thanks to CR's "lynch NU+TW" post. 3. The problem here, Ray, is that you buggered off for good chunks of time without pushing your scumreads. He could be saying "scum!CR isn't pushing me enough for how strong his read seems to be, that's scummy!" 4. Subjective. So take a moment and untunnel yourself, this is essential for what I'm about to draft+post up next. I have to agree here. This is a perspective that i didnt consider. Initially when i made my "lynch tw+nu" post, I had some red flags, but didnt feel at the time they were mafia, but their reaction to my push made no sense coming from town. What I failed to consider was that they were not reacting to what I said, but rather how i pushed it. I can see the possibility of tw and nu reacting the way they did from a town perspective. Im gonna reevaluate on those two. | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Firstly, I think you might also have a little of the same tunnel syndrome that I sort of had against NU that you called me out for. Some of the reads that you posted aren't alignment indicative and read more like "I don't like how this person is playing". Maybe it makes more sense in your head and you didn't bother to explain everything fully given the sheer length of your post. I would like to draw attention to one thing: On December 10 2016 02:04 cakepie wrote: ... My ExO case post #186 seems weak because I deliberately tried not to include any associative read stuff of TW+ExO. At the same time I pressured TW, and the idea behind it is that with a more solid scum read on TW, we can move on to discuss TW+ExO on firmer footing. ... You said that the case on ExO was weak compared to the associative reads you had at this time. So I looked at all your associative reads prior to #186, ignoring everything that came after, or any individual reads (because they were apparently weak). I don't fully buy that you had enough evidence to make an associative case at the time that you claimed. Can you please explain your thoughts at the moment where you had associative reads but didn't post them? There's a few more thoughts I had, but I'll share them afterwards. A couple things I would add to the ExO case from my own personal reads. During the entire game, nearly every single post ExO made on me was really unfair and misconstrued me into a mafia mold, and was somewhat OMGUS. At the time I read this as town who honestly didn't know who was mafia. This would make sense if ExO came into this game, saw some red flags in me, and then held a strong bias that I must be mafia. Because a legit mafia would know that I'm town, and will only have a logical bias against me to try to get me lynched, but the OMGUS doesn't make any sense if I never gone on him for anything. So I thought he was just being a biased town; however, if I came into the game guns blazing against his mafia buddy, that would explain the OMGUS part. Earlier I posted an associative read where TW could be mafia with hopeless, because TW did not feel threatened at all at EoD from 3 people voting him, and hopeless deliberately missing his vote would explain it. If ExO+TW was the mafia team, that would also be reasonable, because NU was leaning town on TW, so there was no risk of hammering. I think that it's definitely plausible that TW+ExO is the scumteam. I'm currently on a weekend trip, so I can't delve it too much now. I'll be on for a short while Saturday night, and I'll be on Sunday before the deadline. | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
Firstly, why on earth would cop spend half their time scumreading someone who they had a greencheck on? Near EoD1, TW said that he was so confident on cakepie and me being mafia, he didn't think he could possibly get lynched, and that's why he wasn't worried. But think about it. Look at cakepie's day 1 play and look at my day 1 play. Do you think it's at all reasonable to conclude that cakepie is mafia and I am mafia, with enough confidence that you would stake your life over it rather than claim your role? He was ready to stake his life over cakepie and me being the two mafia, yet, he didn't even push on us the entire day. That makes zero sense in every way. During the nightphase, he crumbed someone who he ended up shooting. That's exactly what mafia do when planning to fakeclaim. Now look at this recent post: On December 10 2016 16:04 Tumblewood wrote: posting at the standard escape-NK time defeats the purpose of baiting the NK by claiming. and with ray, it's that you never seem to pressure him, you just always see the good side, which isn't how you have treated the rest of the game. Look at where he criticizes cakepie for fake claiming at the very end of the night instead of a few minutes before. Yes, that's a valid criticism, but not from TW. Look at the way TW's been playing all game long. His play has absolutely no respect to granularity whatsoever, but he notices something so subtle. That doesn't make sense coming from TW. But what does make sense is that maybe people were pushing for scum to claim at EoN, so mafia were trying to snipe the cop. Cakepie fakeclaimed way too late and they missed their chance, which is how they noticed it. Please consider this reads, because TW is mafia fakeclaiming cop, and I have to depend on every single town voting him. If you are town please keep an open mind, consider these reads. If you have any questions, let me know. | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
I hope that you can forgive me for having shitty reads on you earlier. If you can consider cakepie's case and my case in a fair manner, I would super appreciate it. I know 100% for sure that you are town and cakepie is town, because if either of you is mafia, then you would have hammered and won the game already. But for us to win the game, we all need to vote together on mafia. So please give this a fair read. Even if you decide later on that you want to vote me, I totally understand and don't fault you for it. I played like shit this game and deserve to lose. At least give me this one chance to explain the game from my point of view. Firstly, I will try to explain cakepie's generation gap in a way everyone can understand it. I know that maybe cakepie sounded a bit elitist of condenscending in a way, but I can assure you that he's not trying to act like he's better or smarter or anything like that. What it really means is that people who have played together a long time have developed a certain metagame. When a group of people play mafia for the very first time, they have no idea what to do or what to say. How do you know who's lying or who's letting to truth. From there we try different things and see what works and what doesn't. Each game that town loses, we look at what plays were valid and what wasn't, and we look at what reads were valid and what wasn't. Each game that mafia loses, they look at why town was able to read them and see how they can blend in better next time. It's a process of learning from out own mistakes and other people's mistakes over time. So after the same group of people play a large number of mafia games, they develop over time an encyclopedia of town's meta and an excyclopedia or mafia's meta. So every player that played together a while ago all learned together and plays this similar way. A newer player, no matter how good, or an experienced player that played in a different group might not have the same meta. I believe this is what cakepie meant by generation gap. People who played together a lot a long time ago have a certain way of playing that's different from people who recently started playing. And as you can see this game, the way we played still has a lot to improve on. So when cakepie reads you as town, you played in a way that's already resembling the way town should see the game and play overall. He saw it, I didn't, my bad. If you look at cakepie's play, he's clearly trying to direct town to a clear goal of finding out who's town and who's mafia. ExO and TW are mafia, because even though they played very well, their play does not resemble a a town's play at all, and they do a pretty good job of mafia's play. Their goal was clearly to cause a lot of distraction to get town on the wrong track, try to blend in, and get town lynched. I know these concepts may be a little confusing, so I'll give a few examples. This example I mentioned already. TW as "cop" gets a greencheck on hopeless on day 1, then proceeds to post scumreads on hopeless. He's very active, but doesn't do a lot to put pressure on people, and doesn't read people very deeply. If you are town, that's your objective, even as cop. As mafia, you want to muddy up the playing field and try to blend in and look towny without actually helping town. He played that very well by posting a lot, but nothing he posted revealed any new information or led to anything that helped town. He did a good job as mafia, crappy job as town. However, posting your best analysis on why hopeless is mafia is the key mistake. A cop has literally NO reason to scumread their green check. Not even to try to blend in and avoid getting shot. No town does this, no matter if you're new or experienced. However as mafia, your mindset is to hide, try to blend in, and cause some chaos. Posting a scumread on hopeless is consistent with the mentality of someone trying to hide. It's completely the opposite mentality of someone who's trying to get town a step closer to establishing the correct narrative that explains the game. It was a mistake coming from mafia. Another example is the pregame banter between ExO and TW. Cakepie posted it in his big case: #50, #51, #53, #61 - Hide Spoiler - On December 06 2016 15:34 ExO_ wrote: Hi. claiming Vanilla Town. Going back to PoE On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote: ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 On December 06 2016 15:57 ExO_ wrote: And what if it is? On December 07 2016 00:09 Tumblewood wrote: it's not but for the rest of the game I would have been biased towards lynching you This is a distancing maneuver. Tinfoil: ExO isn't going to fakeclaim cop. Chalk one up for craycray's "scum isn't fakeclaiming"? In the mafia encyclopedia, there's a big chapter on distancing. Some mafia like to act in a way that makes it seem like you can't be mafia together. This is an example of that. How do we know that this is mafia distancing, and not actually a town posting a genuine read? They made a mistake in the minor details. Tumblewood said that he might be biased against ExO. Diagnosing yourself with bias, or any sort of lack of skill, is a super mafia thing to say. From a town perspective, they will never ever say it because if they are aware they might be biased against someone, then just dont be biased against them, you are already aware of it. From a mafia perspective, it's a slight hint to town to not take his reads as seriously, or forgive him for flip flopping. No reason to do as town to come into a game, and announce "hey, I might be biased, just letting you know." Tumblewood after the day ends says his play was biased, and will try to post unbiased cases. Ie. "Forgive me for flipflopping". It might have been believable from a town, if they didn't admit they were biased at the very start, or literally post a scumread on their greencheck. So this might seem like a perfectly sound play from the mafia perspective, but makes no sense coming from town. If Tumblewood was talking to a town, he probably would have tried to be unbiased through the game, but he didn't, which means he was just throwing out a random term so we can distance himself from ExO. I'll give you another example, and this one includes you. From a town perspective, if you are confident that someone is mafia, you would also know not to trust what they say. When this post was made, ExO was very confident that I am mafia to the point that he's not even answering all my questions or talking about some of my reads. However, he takes my scumread on you seriously: On December 09 2016 19:44 ExO_ wrote: For starters: Isn't exactly a neutral entrance. You may have asked each of them what they thought, after your very first move in the game is to say you want to lynch both of them. However NU's filter does kinda look bad as I read it. It's really wishy washy all over the place. It makes it difficult for me, because I really don't like the way you've played CR and my immediate reaction to that has been to assume your scum. So let me ask you CR, assume for a second that TW is town, and NU is scum. Who would the 2nd scum be with NU? So let me ask you this. You are town, and someone you are confident is scum presents you a scumread. You don't really care what their read is, or at least it's not the first thing you care about. You should be mainly thinking about why the are saying that to you and why they want you to help lynch that person. But from a mafia perspective, you want to lynch town, any town. It's sometimes difficult to present cases on people you know are town, because everything they do you know comes from a town perspective. However if a town gave you a case against another town, you would be very interested in the mislynch oppurtunity. ExO is seriously considering that you might be mafia, because of a case I presented. He talks nothing about why a mafia ray would encourage him to scumread you. So do you think we are seeing a play from the town encyclopedia, or the mafia encyclopedia? I've had a long day and I'm really tired right now, but I'll try to spend more time answering your questions and posting reads and such. Even if I don't win the game (which I don't deserve to), I feel bad for having cakepie put in all that work on my behalf. | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
When I see someone do something, I like to see it from a town perspective and a mafia perspective. Even when someone does something that I don't like or might be a mistake, if I can't put it in a mafia narrative in my head, then they're probly town, or that particular read is null. However if there's something I see that has both a town and mafia perspective, then I call them out on it, and accuse them of the mafia perspective. If they can't give me the town perspective, then that's a scumtell for me. I find it's a better strategy than discussing with everyone whether or not it's scummy, because that might give mafia an opportunity to construct a narrative. So after I accused you and TW at the start, you two didn't rly give me a great answer, so I immediately thought you two were scummy. However, after reconsidering it, I overlooked the very obvious conclusion that threatening to lynch someone that early in the game will often trigger OMGUS regardless if town or mafia. That's a really stupid mistake of me, and I guess it prompted you to hate me all game. So I'm sorry for that. Also sorry to TW, even though you're mafia, but at the time, it was stupid move on my part. | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On December 11 2016 00:16 NeverUnlucky wrote: CRay: Who do you think is scum with TW? You said you thought ExO, CP, and H1 were town yesterday, and now you are town-reading me (?). So who's scum and why? All your arguments for you being cop are that TW is not cop. Why are you cop? Why tf would you have checked Koshi aka the guy with the highest % of chances to die N0? I have a hard time reading Koshi, and two people have threatened to lynch Koshi if he doesn't die. I just checked him so we don't have to worry about reading him anymore, and it would be nice to trust all his reads. | ||
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Chairman Ray
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*brohug* | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On December 12 2016 04:54 NeverUnlucky wrote: That was a lot of stuff to read cakepie, why are you the one who's bringing sense to Ray's cop claim and not him? I've asked him a couple o' times to explain his claim and the best answer I got was from you re: 512 Also, I get your points for scum-reading TW, but you don't address why his cop claim is fake which I think is the cornerstone of today's lynch. Unlike Ray, TW has a lot of points to show for to prove that he is cop. The answers to the questions he's given me make sense. Why is it null for me to choose the scum explanation but is mafia AI for TW and ExO? I answered your question earier about why i checked koshi. Im on my phone so cant go back and quote. But let me ask you this, do you think it's reasonable for the real cop to get a greencheck, and then spend a lot of effort scumreading them the following day? | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On December 12 2016 05:02 NeverUnlucky wrote: And I would like to know, if you are so sure that TW is scum, why did you not vote for him? I did vote for him, first thing | ||
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Chairman Ray
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On December 10 2016 16:33 cakepie wrote: Huh, you might actually care. You could lynch Ray today, and die tonight, and leave us to our devices. But you care (or are pretending to.) If cop!TW and town!cakepie, it's either ExO or NU with Ray. Don't discount NU with Ray. It's plausible that the following: - You were selected as D1 target based on N0, and Ray vs NU was a distancing move where Ray has to lynch you to flip you scum and scum NU by association. But we could copcheck you as town and Ray would safely disengage NU. Or we mislynch you and they win. In that sense, Ray v NU isn't even a bus. - EoD1 may have had NU waiting to hammer you if ExO or H1 voted. - your crumbs were found, and scum actually opted not to kill cop!TW because: - they get to kill conftown in H1 - you were scumread D1 by H1, me, and ?ExO? - with me going after TW+ExO, I'm the weakest link who will mislynch you - in any event, NU is sent into thread to vote you and get stupidcake to vote you and then Ray hammers - scum puzzles over my claim for a bit and then figures out I fucked up. Ray formulates his copclaim. - NU voting ray is ballsy, but they know I will tell NU to unvote. - This requires NU to be playing very well, but this is the scenario where he has Ray as a very experienced scumbuddy who can guide him. So you need to consider both ExO and NU. | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On December 12 2016 05:55 Acrofales wrote: Honestly, though, this game deserves some post-mortem! There was a moment when TW and NU were on CR, and I mentioned to Artanis that CR should just hammer himself and stop town's chance for thinking out the game. But instead scum decided NU should unvote and they went with CR as a countercopclaim gambit. And then town chewed themselves up, because nobody considered for a second that NU was scum. We actually had most of that planned out already in the qt. The plan was for me to counterclaim if tumblewood or exo was cop and checked anybody but NU, but cakepies fake claim threw us off a bit. NU stalled the thread a bit while we reformulated the plan. Cakepie also called it correctly than NU voting on me was a ballsy move, and we knew cakepie was going to tell NU to unvote immediately. We got a little lucky on day 2 and our plan worked a little better than intended. We looked at two paths of victory, one which involved me getting lynched and taking cakepie down with me, and another where cakepie continues to believe that exo and tw is the scumteam. We decided to do the first one, where i link myself with cakepie, and have NU hammer me before cakepie changes his mind. In order to do that, we planned out a way to play that fulfilled every town's narrative at the same time and makes it look like the game is figured out from each persons perspective. The last thing we wanted was to have people considering that NU and I are mafia because their main read doesnt make sense anymore. For ExO and TW, the work was already halfway done because i was already scummy to them, and they were reacting negatively to cakepies case. ExO was 99% on me being mafia, and 70% on cakepie, while TW was 100% and 90% respectively (i recall seeing these numbers in the thread) We just needed to turn these up to 100. So in the qt, we planned that i would make one post to cakepie and i made it awkward and forced, ignore exo completely, and spend all my time begging NU in order to create a false narrative that he's the pivotal town vote. We had no doubt that all town were considering in their head that i was mafia with NU, but the spoken narrative wasnt there yet, and NU had to hammer me before any suspicion was cast, which would then make NU look really good and cakepie really bad. We were hoping that on day 3, town would pick up that NU couldnt mafia with me because we could have already won with cakepies support, or if cakepie wasnt fully supporting us, then i spent the day begging my own mafia partner for his vote. It wasnt a very difficult plan to see through, but people may have been too tunnelled to care, or they ruled it out with occhams razor. At various moments in the day, i was like HAMMER NOW in the qt, but someone would post something, or we hesitated. So yeah, we didnt end up carrying that plan. For cakepie, we actually had a feeling that he knew all along i was mafia, and he was just dragging on his case to get a reaction test in order to determine the remaining mafia between NU and ExO. After all, he has read and analyzed every little thing in the game. So we thought he might have been trying to lull NU into voting TW, so he can hammer me and make a case that NU is mafia. Or if NU hammers me first, he would point to a breadcrumb, saying that he knew i was mafia all along. I actually spent a good time scouring his big long posts for breadcrumbs. I mean, the dudes way too good and way too dedicated to not be looking into me and NU. So i thought there was a 25% chance that this was a ploy by cakepie, 50% that if NU switched his support unconvincingly, that town would pick up on it, and only 25% chance that we could win with cakepies vote. So we made the rule that if cakepie votes, we hammer. If he doesnt, then hammer me. Better odds of winning on day 3 than losing to epicploy!cakepie or scumslipping. We noticed halfway through the day that since ExO and TWs narrative involved me and cp being mafia, their counterarguments to CP all involved him being scum, or there being association between us. So cakepie was actually never presented with any opposing viewpoints to his ExO+TW case. I think maybe that contributed to him being tunnelled on his case. We spent a few hours early this morning planning how to play today very convincingly. NU eventually made the right call of Fuck it, im just gonna straight up ask cakepie to vote first. So yeah, we completely overreacted to cakepie, but it worked out in the end. | ||
Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On December 12 2016 07:10 Tumblewood wrote: one question for the scum team: why kill 1der instead of ExO? you could have easily found one stray vote on me out of 1der and cakepie i looked into h1s filter and saw some of the cop crumbs that cakepie analyzed, and so did NU. Well played by h1. | ||
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