|
26/40
On April 28 2016 05:43 gumshoe wrote: Lynching hts before gb seems rash. The effort and problem solving seems clear in her play.
Lynching her feels like an unnecessary mErasure when we still have as many mislynches as we do and far more suspicious targets (myself included in that bunch) I don't know how gb came to be town read so hard by so many, but dyh was insistent on clearing him and fedie, with fedie effectively confirmed as of right now, are we to assume that dyh extended himself to protect 2 townies?
It could have been a way of buddying/disassociation. I think people on this site are inclined to not look as hard at people who are townreading them, but that's just my opinion. Personally I'm more inclined to scumread someone either softpushing someone or not following through on a read, as opposed to townreading or scumreading them. Like look at the non-reads/deferral of read he had on sicklucker.
That's what I'm talking about.
Sometimes scum do hard defend someone to make it look like they are invested in the game, but I think the manner in which it's done isn't alignment indicative.
|
27/40
On April 28 2016 05:45 Fidei86 wrote: Mafia kills are factional. So I cannot block them. I'm basically a nerfed medic (targets are RBed as well).
There could absolutely be another blue.
Oh bloody hell, so you are definitely not an inv in that sense. So you are straight up prot then.
2 invs does happen but it's extremely rare, because vig/dt can confirm the entire scumteam in 2 nights, and that is considered by most hosts here unbalanced.
And the way DT is listed in the role list I am assuming straight alignment and not a parity one. Parity takes two to confirm. Parity/vig/medic (more or less) is balanced, but disclaimer here, Artanis has done all sorts of shit with his setups so I don't really want to waste more time than I already have here.
I think if DT is straight alignment there's only two. I know BH says that DT in m13 is too town favoured, but w/e.
Moving on.
|
28/40
Tictock, Fidei is rubbish at setup speculation, that I know from his gameplay in NSM18, so him not factoring in claim wars/claim analysis well here is not alignment indicative.
He's not the lynch regardless. Did you have thoughts on GB?
|
29/40
Still reading, but I'm getting constantly interrupted, I might have to make my vote on mobile at this rate :/
On April 28 2016 05:38 Fidei86 wrote: FWIW, one of the reasons I've been nervous about HTS (and also sometimes not nervous) was that I am fairly sure at least someone on the scum team is familiar enough with my meta to know when something is different with me. I was SHOCKED to be roleblocked.
This is a fair point and explains your paranoia on me fine....but surely you must have realised that DYH played as town with you in Dark Tournament and he coached you in NSM18 when you were scum.
It's not as robust a familiarity as I would have had, but it's enough to sense you were playing low-profile, intentionally or not.
I've hosted enough games now that I've seen in mafia QTs how scum try and ferret out blues, they usually go for someone who they see playing low-profile in general.
Just saying.
With respect to the lynch I think it needs to be Tictock/Shape.
I have reasoning to feel that both gumshoe and GlowingBear, however haphazard/crazy/suboptimal/whatever word you want to use their town game has been, I think are both town.
|
29/40 + 1/5
On April 28 2016 06:13 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2016 04:22 Fidei86 wrote:On April 28 2016 04:21 GlowingBear wrote: 29
I must say, although as weird as it sounds, that I'm starting to believe TT is the last Mafia.
Does anyone understand why? Why don't you tell us? I think his reads are kinda disconnected. I remember him calling me town for pushing SL and I thought it was weird because I'd expect the opposite reaction but it didn't get my attention atm But him making a huge case on fidei and not pushing it further, and not having a clear opinion on me and gumshoe... Makes me wonder
??????????
He's been pushing Fidei all cycle?
|
29/40 + 2/5
Still reading. Ugh.
LS preferred a Tictock lynch by PoE over GB.
Damdred had some combination of SL/Tumble/Fidei/Shape in there.
Not sure how much we should weight that, particularly the night 2 kill.
|
29/40 + 3/5
Also GlowingBear, what happened to the scumread on gumshoe?
|
29/30 + 4/5
Reading through Tictock's page 2 of his filter, I'm getting why he could do what he did as town. He sparred with Damdred re: the solo voting. I don't think I can lynch him. I don't like the argument on Tumbleweed but meh.
|
29/40 + 5/5
On April 28 2016 07:12 Shapelog wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2016 07:09 Koshi wrote:On April 28 2016 07:03 Fidei86 wrote: The N2 kill had to be either Tumble or LS. Scum probably flipped a coin in order to avoid WIFOMing too hard and avoiding medic/JK. Of course, I think I should fall into that category, but nobody in this game seems much interested in actually lynching scum. O rly. What a piece of shit are you. Fucking 0 impact player who wasted a blue role by claiming and was screaming to lynch town during EoD2. Yes, because the correct play for any blue role is to not claim after being the largest wagoning in the fucking game. But you seem to forgot the all claim post you made almost 10 secs after his claim. Seriously.
100%
James, to answer your question, but I can also see him doing that as town. I hate meta, but I also know as mafia he's capable of good cases on bad townies (reference Holy Guardians), so I'm pretty leery, but I don't think I can lynch him today.
I'm on Shape's filter, the DYH push kind of works in his favour and so does the EoD1 for him though.
|
30/40
Yeah, Shape isn't as townie as say Koshi, and Tictock (from a pure filter standpoint) but I'm taking into account the scum pushes from DYH and EoD1.
But going back through filters, he's not as scummy as say GB. Tictock's read on Fidei was anything but disjointed.
I have tinfoily feels on Tictock but I can't justify voting him before GB or Shape.
|
31/40
Really don't know between those two, but I voted GB.
|
32/40
This is fucking disappointing and frustrating now. Especially after just re-reading a ridiculous amount.
I'm off for the night, but will reassess when I return.
|
33/40
I'm re-reading filters and hitting the database at this point, and fuck it I'm just going to say it now, the final mafia actually most likely is Tictock.
I have to take off for the evening, but I'm going to highlight some key parallels between his scumgames and this game (exclusive of Fidei's case).
A bit on Shape...
I'm reading Shapelog's filter and besides the votes on him from earlier scum, I'm also seeing posts like post 826 and 886 indicate townie thinking and him trying to solve the game. Because of his AFKness, he hasn't been able to be as participatory, nor a so-called shining beacon of townieness, but when he has been around, I can definitely tell he is trying to work things out.
Why Tictock is the final mafia
Posting for the sake of posting
950
Aside from the case I see Fidei has written on Tictock, plus the Tictock/TW case, I reviewed Tictock's response to it (post 950). Not only is Shapelog's questioning of the post warranted, but the part where Tictock said that his read on FF is overstating things it still doesn't take away from the fact that he effectively saved a scum read over someone he considered town, and having decent reads based on a PoE list doesn't make sense to even post, nor does it make Tictock (or anyone really) more town.
157-159
Post 157 - now that I am taking a much closer look at his posts - makes me beg the question as to why he's even posting what he is. First part - if he's not asking Fecalfeast for his reads, what is he doing? Second part about FF is largely posting just to post, I know Koshi called my read on Fecalfeast overexplanation (mind you, I backed it up with meta), but tell me that post wasn't either (or rather, a very rambly way of saying Fecalfeast is null)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/507600-cap-tortoise-mafia?page=8#157
Even Fidei makes a statement (post 159) about his 'lame agreement' without a solid stance.
Scum Meta
I'm just as guilty for not looking as closely to certain things as others may have this past cycle, but comparing the cases he's made here to how he was able to case the scummy townies in Guardians Chapter 1 (won as GF Day 5, the easy examples I remember from that game were Chocolate and Templar) and doing the same thing in Nutcracker (he cased GigyaS and I think ritoky? before he was eventually caught by the tracker in mylo) people should not be giving him a complete pass for the cases he wrote on Fidei - the one that was written on Tumble this game is an example of a more poorly written case that has been called out a few times.
Take a look at Tictock's scum game and some of the cases he's written against scummy townies.
See any parallels? (Fidei/Shapelog/others who might have also been in these games, please comment)
Holy Guardians Chapter 1 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/486008-holy-guardians-chapter-1?user=Tictock (full filter)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/486008-holy-guardians-chapter-1?page=20#388 (example of a post where his reads will contradict each other so that he's not saying a whole lot, namely the points against Kickstart and Chocolate)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/486008-holy-guardians-chapter-1?page=30#582
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/486008-holy-guardians-chapter-1?page=30#600
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/486008-holy-guardians-chapter-1?page=32#638 (final is response to ritoky calling him out, look familiar? it should, responses from Damdred/Fidei come to mind)
These are some examples of so-called contrived reads, or similar to what he put out on Tumbleweed this game. Also defensiveness as to when he is accused.
Examples of cases he's made in that game below: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/486008-holy-guardians-chapter-1?page=49#964
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/486008-holy-guardians-chapter-1?page=51#1004 (Damdred's response - Tictock was trying to fit the scum narrative for Damdred in that game)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/486008-holy-guardians-chapter-1?page=59#1168 (case on GGTemplar)
There are several more cases, but in that case he piggybacked off a dead townie's case for another easy mislynch.
Now check out the post in this game on LS about the earth being flat - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/507600-cap-tortoise-mafia?page=15#285 and constantly saying that LS is posting little content. LS posted content he disagreed with or whatever, and it was a different opinion on moving the game forward but calling Koshi's read on LS bullshit is also contrived because he ALSO MADE THAT POST at the time Koshi retracted his read on LS and voted him. So Tictock at the very least ignored that change in read.
Also check out this post where he voted gumshoe
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/507600-cap-tortoise-mafia?page=25#490
Someone please tell me why what gumshoe said is exclusive to mafia? This is also trying to fit into a scum narrative, which is mafia indicative esp for Tictock.
Nutcracker
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/499399-tl-mafia-lxxiii-the-nutcracker?user=Tictock (overall filter)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/499399-tl-mafia-lxxiii-the-nutcracker?page=25#496 (another example of a case he makes on someone to frame them as mafia, this also touches a bit on how defensive Tictock is when facing accusations. Compared that to post 385 this game where he pushes back at Damdred with self-meta)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/499399-tl-mafia-lxxiii-the-nutcracker?page=25#499 Koshi calling him out on them in that game, similar concerns regarding Tictock's play in posts 112, 166, in this game.
TLDR - a bullet point list of mafia parallels for Tictock (1) framing something NAI or not exclusive to mafia as exclusively mafia (2) defensiveness (3) taking a disagreement with another player as mafia indicative (4) contrived reads (5) several instances of questioned purposes of posting, or posting just to post.
If nothing else, just take a look at those filters and then re-read Tictock's filter with these points in mind.......but I'm seriously annoyed at myself that I didn't realise this shit sooner.
Good night.
|
34/40
Koshi, when I read the Nutcracker game compared to the Guardians game, his game wasn't quite as "clean" as Guardians, but hopefully you will find some of the key points I'm trying to make. If you don't trust my case, then why doesn't what Fidei is saying convince you?
On April 29 2016 06:29 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2016 03:05 Tumblewood wrote:On April 28 2016 05:38 Fidei86 wrote: FWIW, one of the reasons I've been nervous about HTS (and also sometimes not nervous) was that I am fairly sure at least someone on the scum team is familiar enough with my meta to know when something is different with me. I was SHOCKED to be roleblocked. this is 10/10 fidei joins confirmed town club gumshoe Koshi me Fidei --- tt shape hts not confirmed one of the conftowns dies tonight, which leaves tt and shape as our solid lynches for tomorrow. if even one of the non-confirmed towns reveals themselves to be townie, we can lynch the other two and win (or if we get a save, all three) btw fidei/possible medic, don't save me tonight. go for someone who has time to play the game. I agree that we didn't do this GB lynch very well. He was pretty townie when he was trying to lynch me. I am not sure gumshoe is town though. I don't think I want to lynch TT. I don't know why. I would lynch HTS or Shape first. Probably Shape.
Also when I read through Nutcracker it was you who didn't want to lynch Tictock then for what he was posting.
On December 16 2015 06:42 Koshi wrote: unvote: vote: GlowingBear
Dnu. Don't want TT out. Content keeps flowing out. I'll keep him and GB is a liability.
Some shitty modkills incoming as well? I hate modkills. Just cheapens the set-up/game/balance
After you were scumming him a decent chunk of the game.
I think you might be making the same mistake in this game tbh.
A lesson learnt from NSM 18 that also honestly applies here - I also think you need to adjust your expectations here of mafia for how poorly town are playing. How many scummy townies have we lynched or have been pushed all game? It's easy for ANY mafia - not just Tictock - to make cases on scummy town.
|
1/40
Koshi, I'm pretty sure. There is also adequate cause to townread everyone else, however much we might disagree on some of the players left.
Between meta parallels, the Day 1 stuff, associative reads, and the latest push, that's a load of scum points right there, but I also do not like how after the claim wars died down, he was still suggesting that Fidei would fakeclaim.
That comment (post 1027) felt forced to me.
To me his ability to construct these big cases is NAI - he clearly has done it as both alignments.
What also suggests association, just DYH here not really wanting to touch on Tictock, I'd noticed he was clearly ignoring him -
On April 25 2016 06:06 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2016 05:56 Half the Sky wrote:20/40 On April 25 2016 05:49 DoYouHas wrote:On April 25 2016 05:45 Half the Sky wrote:19/40 On April 25 2016 05:15 DoYouHas wrote: @HtS - Why don't you agree with me on Fid. What are you seeing in his play that is scummy that I am not? The only mark I have against him is that he drops off hard as scum and he hasn't posted much recently. I was trying to figure out his general direction on who he's trying to lynch, besides his dropping off, I'm not clear on whether he's waiting to pick up on a lynch like SL or what....beginning of day 2, his approaches were all over the shop. If you look at page 2 of his filter he doesn't have a clear direction which makes me question whether he's a low activity mafia. Now I see he's trying to figure the game out but at the time I wasn't clear. On the other hand, you also have Shapelog who hasn't posted hardly dick all this cycle either. This is what is eating at me. I was convinced Shape was scum. The sl flip made that less likely. I don't want to drop him from my suspect list, especially since he hasn't said a word for a while, but I don't see him being scum with Koshi. Lord this is a good point. I might have to start using a spreadsheet at this rate. The main thing that troubles me about you tbh is you have said a lot about Shape and Koshi (and exclusively Shape most of the game), but little on some of the others save that one list post. If you are town and you are wrong on either one of them, you are effectively giving Tictock, GB, even LS (from your latest perspective) a free pass. If you are mafia, you are doing a good job of just staying out of suspicion and keeping attention off the right people. I have been giving TT a free pass unfortunately. He just hasn't drawn my attention much. LS confuses me at the moment, which is why I asked him those questions. He isn't comfortable with a gum lynch, he leans town on GB, he leans town on Koshi, he leans town on you. There is a lack of evolving reads around some of the most polarizing players in the game ATM. I just think you are wrong on GB, though I'm giving your and gum's points a harder look to see if I can justify my read against them.
Which makes me think considering the way he drew Damdred's attention end of day 1 and a few others as well for day 1 play.
Now, here's another example from this game of a contrived read from Tictock. It's okay to suggest that Shapelog would be a weak town read but NOT for this reason:
On April 28 2016 05:59 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2016 05:54 Half the Sky wrote: 28/40
Tictock, Fidei is rubbish at setup speculation, that I know from his gameplay in NSM18, so him not factoring in claim wars/claim analysis well here is not alignment indicative.
He's not the lynch regardless. Did you have thoughts on GB? I thought he looked pretty towny in that argument vs Gum. Idk I'm kinda tempted to Yolo vote Shape, main reason why he seems to be town in my mind is because both of the other scum voted for him but that's pretty weak.Then again GB giving up on his gum read and posting this doesn't inspire confidence in my TR on him Show nested quote +On April 28 2016 04:21 GlowingBear wrote: 29
I must say, although as weird as it sounds, that I'm starting to believe TT is the last Mafia.
Does anyone understand why? I assume the why is because I've been pushing Fidei so hard who I guess has to be blue (I think everyone posted since his claim?)
The DYH effort against him, along with the way Shapelog voted sicklucker day 1 are the "hardest" evidence that Shapelog is likely town. (In general, votes are a pretty hard form of evidence.)
|
2/40
Shape, with those last two mafia games from Tictock, aside from what you presented, I'm seeing a few more parallels.
In the Devil Inside, both Trfel and Kushmasta both called Tictock out for misrepresenting their posts/reads. In this game, we have that read on Tumblewood.
In Devil, Kushmasta called Tictock out (post 1207 that game) for ignoring reads that he updated. You have the exact same situation here with when he called Koshi's reads bullshit - it was after Koshi re-evaluated his read on LS and he didn't at all take into consideration why Koshi changed his read on LS.
|
3/40
Tictock, I know I didn't say it, but I read a few of your town games as well. In Haunted Mansion, for example, you were much more concise, a lot less tentative, and said your reads with conviction. They were a lot more pointed than they were in this game. That is one of the biggest reasons I actually brought up the posting just to post because you were quite the opposite there.
And the reason I'm using meta is because I'm drawing parallels between your scum games and the stuff here.
|
4/40
I'm back but not for too much longer. Busy tonight and tomorrow but will do my best.
On April 30 2016 04:00 gumshoe wrote: we also know that dyh had a tendency to hard town read actual townies (gb and fedie) sl also hard town read hts, but again, she looked objectively townie(if only because of activity) so they may have just been trying to appease her.
Actually no, quite the opposite, SL's pushing me day 1, trying to hop onto Damdred's misread of me, could have gotten me killed. (Koshi and FF were on the brink, LS had also voted me.)
On April 21 2016 09:30 sicklucker wrote: Dont want to lynch Ls hes so cute and trying hard Ticktock is looking really strong I do want to lynch koshi but hes probably town. Not sure I can do another koshi game Gum probably town from what I know about him FF was not even in the top 3 people for wasting posts early so im not sure why hes being attacked. Hts seems over defensive but maybe thats just the koshi factor wish I could read shapelogs posts but luckily he does not have one I want to lynch gb a lil for this posts
On April 22 2016 07:15 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2016 07:13 Koshi wrote:On April 22 2016 07:12 Damdred wrote: Tempted but I excluded her today. There are a lot of red flags though with her which yeah Yeah I agree. She is up for future days for sure. Let's take down fefe today. thats loser talk kill her!
On April 22 2016 07:09 sicklucker wrote: Obv I cant read the pages I missed and defend myself at the same time. But id imagine hts is scum for that vote. Shes not that silly
On April 22 2016 07:17 sicklucker wrote: Well thats a dumb reason sicklucker cares for no man. Maybe ladys. kill hts tho
On April 22 2016 07:22 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2016 07:21 Half the Sky wrote:23/40 On April 22 2016 07:17 sicklucker wrote: Well thats a dumb reason sicklucker cares for no man. Maybe ladys. kill hts tho Why? Read my filter, I highlighted again what I took issue with before I said what I did about lynching you. like I said 8 minutes to lynch. I come back seeing you taking advantage and jumping on a dream scum lynch. Your the best lynch for me because of it. Sure if I had more then 7 minutes I would be more liberal about who I want to lynch here
After EoD 1
On April 22 2016 07:53 sicklucker wrote: There was certainly alot of resistance on that hts lynch
On April 22 2016 08:13 sicklucker wrote: you saw that too eh
(final quote was in response to Damdred criticising my D1 vote, he just pretty much going for whatever wagon could take off)
If you are to assume the mafia RB to be remaining, you'd have to argue why an inactive-ish mafia vanilla would push or risk the death of his more active mafia RB (if one were to think I was that player).
And he kept egging Damdred on Night 1 regarding my being scum to boot in a situation where I was tactically the correct vigshot/DT check.
Just saying.
|
5/40
If people aren't willing to buy into my case or read into it, at least look back at the D1 play. Tictock generally emulates his town play well as mafia, so that's part of the reason I felt it necessary to highlight meta. Look at the reads between him and the flipped mafia, etc.
And Koshi, if you have to mislynch me to realise it's Tictock, then so be it. I've actually been quite frustrated all game, most scumreads on me have been poor with the sheer amount of work I've been trying to do to sort this out all game.
(Damdred, no idea what he was doing, Fidei was pure fear/confirmation bias, LS was pure OMGUS and even he got out of the tunnel)
I said it early game and I'll say it again, mafia have been playing well, well enough to fool most of us.
But back on topic, if you have to mislynch me, great but you really need to take him out in mylo.
And everyone, there's no way Koshi is scum. If I had to sum it up in one sentence, the way he raged at Fidei for playing blue suboptimally? No way that would have come from scum. Exposure of the prot role is a scummer's dream, they cannot afford to lose a mislynch, and I could not see him fake that.
Obviously other reasons too, but that's the quick and dirty way there.
|
6/40
If the hardpushing is a criteria for you, then clearly you didn't read the exchange between myself and GB Day 2.
Also this:
On April 30 2016 06:24 Koshi wrote: I actually didn't rage at him for that. It was because he said we didn't want to lynch mafia. That hit a wrong spot because people actually are trying really hard this game. Xcept maybe TW.
I know how hard you have been playing HTS. At this point I am lynching you because the amount of words you type are not convincing me or you enough to also push lynches.
Both D1 and D3 lynch you were like "ok w.e this lynch then but my head is spinning and idgaf tbh" And then D2 you were the first vote after it was obvious DYH was going to get lynched.
Today is different with the TT case... But I just don't know... I really don't think TT is mafia and if he is that is on me. But I don't see it. I wish I could but the guy literally typed what I want to type or what I am feeling.
There are multiple instances. Around Fidei, around how he feels after lynches, before lynches etc etc. Really a lot of the time.
Am I misunderstanding the bolded? If you're suggesting I bussed DYH, that's wrong, because I didn't even vote DYH. Tictock was the last on him by what you were saying.
On April 25 2016 07:29 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Final Votecount - Day 2: DoYouHas (5) - LightningStrike, Fidei86, Koshi, Shapelog, TicTock GlowingBear (2) - Koshi, gumshoe, Half the Sky gumshoe (1) - Tictock, gumshoe, Tumblewood, GlowingBear, Half The Sky, Koshi, KoshiKoshi (2) - GlowingBear, DoYouHas, GlowingBear Shapelog (0) - KoshiTumblewood (0) - Half the Sky, Koshi, Tictock, gumshoeDoYouHas is slated to be lynched.
D1 was a clusterfuck, I think everyone gets that, I get why people think I'm scummy for day 1, but I'd argue per Fidei's case on Tictock, he looks worse by comparison.
Day 3 it's actually concise in my filter as to why I switched. Heck reading Shape's filter, you could conclude the very same thing. But of course the amount of reading I do won't show up in my filter it is what it is.
Also if you are suggesting NK WIFOM to implicate me, re-read again,
(1) Damdred had Tictock, Shape and someone else in his PoE by the End of Day 1. (2) LS got out of his tunnel and he had Tictock over GB, (3) and yeah Fidei might have mis-read me, but you can't even consider that one as he was prot - no mafia team should ever leave the prot alive irregardless of what he says.
Ultimately it's not the scumread that frustrates me here, it's reasoning behind it, and a chunk of your reasoning against me doesn't even reflect some of the things that actually happened.
|
|
|
|