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On January 28 2016 15:25 Ikidomari wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2016 15:16 Eden1892 wrote:sigh hittin me right in the feels with "keep me alive so I can learn" I'll humor that your post took a while and you changed your mind as a result, Iki. After all, I pretty rapidly changed course on who I wanted to lynch while I was typing my post But you got to explain to me what changed your mind. It's a bit odd to me that you claim you did, because you didn't make much mention of Jesus in-between your read on him and your list of reads. And you didn't put it back in at the end... or in the follow-up post where you voted for him... So what changed your mind about Jesus? Please be as specific as you can. Sure. It's his attitude. I admit I'm biased because I dislike the way he types, but I couldn't stop thinking about motivations as to why he'd be so arrogant, and how that arrogance could be used to his advantage. The only logical reason that I could see someone would draw so much attention to themselves is so that, if they were mafia, people would think "Man, there's no way mafia would be stupid enough to draw that much attention to themselves, he must be town" It seems suspicious as hell to me, and I can't think of a good reason a town player would paint themselves as a target. His posting style reminds me of an anonymous poster on 4chan, not of a TL user looking to solve a puzzle. Source: I spend far too much time on both websites. This post and Iki's large reads post make me think Jesus is very likely to be town.
1. Notice that Iki's whole reason for putting Jesus as his top lynch is all NAI. He talks a lot about Jesus having a 'bad attitude' and why he scumreads Jesus for it. None of that makes Jesus mafia. Generally when scum push scum, they have actually concrete things to point out for why their partner is guilty. These really NAI reads aren't typical, since they don't get you any credit for 'being right' down the line (since you weren't actually right; you voted 'correctly' but for the wrong reasons).
2. This is coming right as Jesus has some pressure on him from other players, too; he was, if not the leading vote-getter, in prime position to be when Iki makes his entrance into the thread. If Jesus were his scumbuddy, then Iki is actually committing to bussing Jesus pretty hard with this stance that he takes. It leaves him very little room to abandon ship, and it comes at probably the peak of suspicion on Jesus in the entire thread at that point. It's at the point where the anti-Jesus push had maximum momentum in the thread, which means there are a lot of people who are gonna be looking hard at Iki if he tries to walk it back later. I mention this because...
3. This bus, were it a bus, looks incredibly sloppy. I mean think about it. If you're going to bus a teammate, how do you start off deciding to townread him and then change course mid-post? Bussing is a very deliberate tactic with a lot of internal calculations -- how hard to push, how many escape routes to leave yourself, what arguments to raise and how to raise them, it goes on. You don't just haphazardly decide halfway through a long fabricated reads post to bus your teammate. It just doesn't happen.
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On February 01 2016 10:08 Eden1892 wrote: My working theory before actually reexamining his reads is that, as I noted initially, the 3-3-3 reads were fabricated. I doubt he townread any of his teammates unless they were widely townread. Probably he left one of them off and null'd the other.
Of course the other thing to note is that he flip flopped on Jesus between his fabricated reads and his 3-3-3 reads. I can't reread that right now but I would bet it will clearly tell us Jesus's alignment. Based on this theory, if it's right, Trfel is town as well. Looking somewhat likely I think, Trfel wasn't under a lot of pressure at the time so there's not a lot of motive to randomly scumread one of your partners.
Additionally, looking at this:
Scum: Onegu, JesusIncarnate, Tfel Town: PMT, Darth, Alur Keep a close eye on: Shape, Tumble, Kuragari
We're already 2/3 of the way toward him having no scum in his town or scum reads. The pattern of "one left off, one null'd" is so typical of mafia, it's hard to imagine this isn't what's going on here.
He also says this:
I went back and read through all of Trfel and Onegu's filters. Based on their posts to each other, I don't think they're both scum. Both come off as scummy, but if one was proven scum, my suspicion toward the other would drop.
Which is interesting. I think a tactic like this is common of newer scum players too -- pair two townies together and say "well they can't both be scum, I would be less suspicious of one if the other flipped scum." Because you know neither one will, you give yourself an out to suspect the 2nd one if the first one gets mislynched.
None of this is ironclad, I know. And I still really dislike a lot of Trfel's approach to this game.
But there's substantial circumstantial evidence pointing toward Trfel being town based on Iki's filter, and Trfel has a couple of things going for him independently that really make me think he's town. He seems to be trying very hard to me in this game, and his posts just feel so sincere to me. I don't know how to describe it, and if someone disagrees here we're probably just gonna have to agree to disagree, because I don't know how to argue this effectively.
There's just enough of a culmination of little things -- Iki's posting about Trfel and the patterns new scum tend to have with how they list and pursue suspects; Trfel's filter length and tone in posting, and effort level -- that push me into thinking Trfel is town.
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On February 01 2016 13:20 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2016 13:16 darthfoley wrote: Did we ever ever a real discussion why Alur was killed and not me, or maybe even Eden? I was townread probably harder than Alur at the time, so the only thing I can think of is that
1) his reads were better than mine 2) mafia thought he was blue 3) both
I can't remember if we just accepted his death as obvi NK, because it surprised me slightly. I'm bad at night kill analysis. There are too many variables. it could have been a medic dodge ( Eden) the fucking dream is so real
On February 01 2016 13:24 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2016 07:03 PepperMintTea wrote:On February 01 2016 07:00 Trfel wrote: Just please, please, give scott31337 a chance to be read one way or another. Not doing so is really stupid. Here's what happens He has no knowledge of the game so far He isn't going to go through 70 pages in a detailed manner so he will skim read and come up with something not particularly useful. Just some basic surface stuff. He will still be a massive question mark Jesus was scummy and decided not to play. Scott won't remove that for me so I am lynching him regardless I have had similar thoughts regarding Jesus. That's why I really don't like posts like this. This is so dismissive from PMT. I don't like it either, but I also don't feel like it comes from mafia tbh. It's rather bold.
Plus, and I know this is associative based off of an unproven flip, but if you accept my previous premise that Jesus is town, PMT basically said "I am committing to mislynching this townie no matter what his replacement says." That position is going to be really hard to defend if scott comes in and does something meaningful. Suddenly you're stuck with having to walk this post back, and your reasoning won't be good, or you're deliberately committing to a likely mislynch without a good reason.
It's the kind of somewhat reckless and yet semi-reasonable premise that I would expect a newer town player confident in a scumread to pursue, but not something that would come from mafia.
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@Trfel: lemme eat something and read what Iki was saying about Tumblewood. I haven't crossed Tumblewood off my list yet, so I can't give you anything right off the bat for why it's wrong, so I'm open to thinking there's something there.
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On February 01 2016 13:35 Trfel wrote: Eden, if I may....
What do you mean by saying that you haven't liked my approach this game?
Both so I can know what I'm doing wrong, and to help me understand your read on me. Well, I'm not even sure what you were doing was wrong. I didn't like it, but that doesn't make it objectively incorrect or meritorious of change.
The critical mass of early questions and the very defeatist, almost angsty demeanor more recently.
Bear in mind that the latter observation is thoroughly and completely hypocritical of me to make and I recognize it lol.
I just felt your early questions looked a lot like a mafia player trying to get his feet under him for the game, probing weaknesses in other townies to try to attack them. And I felt that you were misrepresenting other players who had disagreements with you about what certain pieces of evidence meant as personal attacks against you. Lots of "nobody ever likes playing with me" types of sentiments when it seemed more like people were just having trouble wrapping their heads around how you came to the conclusions you did regarding some in-game events. (apologize for the vagueness here, I don't really feel like looking up specific examples) That reaction tends to come from mafia players more of the time, as they tend not to be as emotionally in-tune to what town players are saying. I know that sounds like some really New Age weird shit, but it's true -- mafia are deliberately distant from the events of the game due to their perfect information and have a tendency to misunderstand what people with limited information are saying.
I think all of that was probably reason enough to pursue you earlier, but I also think it's quite a bit weaker than the reasons I have to townread you. So, I thought you were mafia before, but I think you're probably town now.
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I still haven't looked at the Tumblewood thing btw lol. My b. Will do that next.
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On January 29 2016 00:57 Ikidomari wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 00:49 _MexicanAlien wrote:On January 29 2016 00:31 Ikidomari wrote:On January 29 2016 00:26 _MexicanAlien wrote: You might want to show how darthfoley and eden1982 were not bailing you out or giving you backdoors. if you guys were a scum team you would ignore this point. Sure, Here's why we aren't a scum team. If I was mafia, I fucked up bad, real bad. What I did was a horrendous play for mafia, and if eden and darth were my teammates, if they had two brain cells to rub together they'd immediately throw me under the bus and distance themselves from me, not try and rescue me. Sure, they'd be playing from behind 1 man down, but it's a far better option than losing the game then and there. Put yourself in Mafia's shoes, if your ally shits the bed, do you help him clean it up, getting dirty in the process, or do you pretend you don't know the guy? Haha. Turns out I was WIFOMing you. Mafia would never ignore the accusation in question + Show Spoiler +Shape log says darthfoley and eden1892 gave Ikidomari a back door or of the situation. Seeing as Darth and eden1892 completely dropped all accusation almost immediately, this is not as wild a point as it seems. , because if they were shown to have ignored it they would be nailed. A Mafia would try to bail out scummates from being associated with himself, like you just did. Or tried to do Also think of it this way. If darthfoley and eden1892 were successful, you would get off scot-free. No one would suspect you. High- risk, high reward. Let's take this a step further then. In the hypothetical situation where I'm mafia: either Eden or Darth aren't my Teammates, I've been caught as obvious scum. My best play to help my team at this point is to put a strong townie under suspicion. I "fall" for your obvious WIFOM, and either A) You believe my response and drop suspicion on me, or B) "you got me", and you now suspect a good town to be mafia. Don't tell me how WIFOM works, then expect me to immediately fall for it jesus. I made a bad play in my first ever game, but I'm not a moron. As to why I responded, Either I ignore the post, other people read your "if you don't respond to this you're scum", and conclude that I am, indeed scum If I do reply you pull this WIFOM shit on me, and I at least have a chance to retort it. If I'm still alive come tomorrow I'm going to be riding you hard I begrudgingly acknowledge that this sequence also basically clears MexicanAlien as badly as I'd love to lynch him anyway.
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I might be going too deep with some of these names, but the scumteam almost certainly must come from this pool.
Tumblewood nooniansoong PepperMintTea
Of the living players, I've already explained why I believe Trfel, Mex, Shapelog, and Jesus are all town. Of course, darth is confirmed town, and I am town too.
That leaves the above pile, and quite honestly? I like it a lot.
In fact, I'm gonna go way deep.
I think it's kush and Tumblewood.
I can't explain why all that well. But I'm gonna give ya what I got.
First Tumblewood. Trfel is right. Iki's read on Tumblewood is really weird. Trfel already explained this, but Iki left himself a ton of wiggle room for reading Tumblewood as town or mafia. But then notice how he addresses Trfel in that same post:
Trfel Scum read, has a whole lot of posts just asking questions without contributing any information, a whole lot of words with not much to say. Jumped on the voting for tumbleweed bandwagon simply because it's embarrassing the newbies caught tumble, and not Trfel himself? (Am I missing something here?) My biggest reason for thinking Trfel is scum is #607 where he says he's trying very hard not to direct the thread, then proceeds to direct the hell out of the thread dissecting tumbleweed's filter, this results in tumbleweed being the current lynch target. Maybe this is a sick town play and we're going to get rid of mafia on the first night, but I think, judging from his experience, Trfel is an experienced mafia player, and is scum trying to get a townie lynched on day 1. Isn't the certainty of this read really strange given his ambivalence about Tumblewood? Like he is sure Trfel is mafia. At least relative to his other reads, this is as close to a definite statement we're gonna get from Iki on anybody. And the bulk of his reason why has to do with Trfel pushing Tumblewood.
But... if Iki himself is so unsure about Tumblewood's alignment, why is Trfel so clearly suspicious for pushing Tumblewood? Clearly, you would think, Iki has reservations about Tumblewood from reading Iki's posts. You would expect Iki to at least be somewhat okay with the idea that Tumblewood is mafia, and thus to be somewhat okay with Trfel pushing that idea.
I think Iki was trying to help Tumblewood out by going after Trfel, but also tried to cover his tracks and not leave too obvious an association between them. For the new players, this is called a chainsaw defense -- where you alleviate pressure on a teammate by attacking his attacker, and put the attacker on the backpedal, in order to drive the spotlight away from your teammate.
And guess who else was in on this "push Trfel for his Tumblewood read" action?
kush.
kush is where I'm going way deep on this. But I got a few circumstantial reasons, an associative read, and a goddamn DREAM.
1. kush has been very adamantly defending me from the players scumreading me. There's something weird about it. In the first place... I don't think he should have been so sure! I can't even believe I'm using this argument, but I would concede that I haven't been as obviously town as I normally would be. I believe I've satisfactorily explained why this is the case, but that doesn't matter. kush didn't know all that. He still was sure I was town. The second thing is that I didn't really need it! I can defend myself, he knows it and knows I know it. I was never a serious lynch prospect, despite what Mex and Shapelog would want to believe. (Sorry amigos.) He gave great reasons for me being town. Reasons he could easily give as town. But the timing is what's so weird. I didn't need it... so it wasn't actually contributing all that much. It gets weirder when you consider a great deal of that effort in defending me was made to Trfel, as he was scumreading Trfel. Like why would you bother? You think Trfel is mafia so you would then believe he doesn't actually believe his read on me. So why go to the effort of arguing with him about me? Makes no sense from townie POV. But it does make sense from scum POV, because it looks like a relevant topic for discussion, and you think you can get Trfel to say something shady if you keep talking about my alignment and eventually I flip town.
2. kush has been attacking Trfel very doggedly about this Tumblewood read. The timing on that has also been consistent with the notion of a chainsaw defense. You have to believe Tumblewood is mafia already for this to work, but it makes sense based on what's already been discussed. Frankly, I've felt his attack has been too stringent. It feels just a little bit beyond reasonable townie aggression to me. I don't really know how to explain this right, but I am pretty sure I am reading this correctly. I think kush was defending his partner Tumblewood, and by taking the mindset that Tumblewood must be in the right and Trfel must be in the wrong, kush went beyond the reasonable limits of townie interrogation and argumentation on Tumblewood's alignment. kush just seems too sure about Trfel being wrong about Tumblewood for my tastes.
3. As noted before, I believe Iki left one of his partners in the null/watch list, and one in the list of players he didn't discuss. If you accept my narrowing down the pool at the beginning of this post, and you also accept my premise about where Iki put his partners, then you know kush is, by process of elimination, the other partner.
I'll concede that neither of these cases are ironclad, but I really really believe in them right now. I may go back and do further digging to see if I still believe them, or if I were incorrect. But I think this is a really good direction to go in and I would encourage people to join me on it.
Scumteam is Tumblewood and nooniansoong.
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It was pretty roll over and die, but there were a couple of key factors accounting for that difference:
1. One of his teammates just rolled over and died day 1. We lynched the mafia rb with all of, what, 3-4 votes? 2. He was involved in another down-to-the-wire game as town which took all his attention. He kinda mailed in the last scum game to focus on the close game occurring simultaneously.
And I don't think filter length is that big a deal, although I'm also open to just being wrong about kush altogether. I just don't think filter length would be the reason why. After all, you argue that his filter length is an aberration compared to both his town and his scum games -- this makes me think filter length is less indicative of anything than it normally would be. (Obviously, it being longer than normal tends to be a reason to think he's town. But I'm more concerned that it's an aberration here, as I think that should also make the heuristic of comparing filter length to previous games weaker than normal.)
As for a strong direction... is there? He has one concerning you being mafia (as part of his team theory he keeps pushing) and me being town. There's not really a whole lot else. In fact I don't think his direction is all that strong; he's repeatedly said he's indifferent to which of his scum reads we lynch. I don't see it being outside of mafia range.
I don't get your Superman question. Why is it unlikely that he would, and why would this effort even be particularly Herculean? He hasn't actually had to do a whole lot this game. He wasn't a key factor in either lynch, which is important when you consider how relatively involved you say he is, based on filter length.
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Oh, I forgot something else.
The roleblock claim.
Now that I believe Jesus is town, roleblocking kush really doesn't make sense. They shot Alur and allegedly didn't roleblock him? In a format where we haven't yet been able to rule out a veteran? Okay... But then obviously this puts us in the world where there's a doctor. What about kush's play makes you think he's a doctor? And if you do think he's a doctor, why not shoot kush instead? It's not like he was getting lynched at any point during d1/n1.
This also reminds me to check Alur's suspects. I checked what he said about kush and honestly, the timing seems very good for a kill on Alur. He was starting to get worried about kush being mafia, and makes an important point that's remarkably consistent with my issue with kush townreading me: too much information.
On January 29 2016 02:07 Alur wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2016 01:49 nooniansoong wrote:On January 29 2016 01:47 Alur wrote:Noon please answer the question you neglected to answer earlier: On January 28 2016 09:20 Alur wrote:Two questions for noon: Can you explain or elaborate on why Trfel "looks solid to you"? The post's in your filter that relate to Trfel go like this: On January 28 2016 01:58 nooniansoong wrote: trfel your questions are bad lol Into On January 28 2016 02:23 nooniansoong wrote:On January 28 2016 01:31 Onegu wrote: Trfel 100% scum. Confirmed now. You are welcome. WHY And. On January 28 2016 08:04 nooniansoong wrote: Trfel looks solid to me. Eden is scum though. I am almost sure of that. no. like i said before. get a majority of votes on either me or trfel then I might explain. What? There is arguably some logic to not be willing to share scumreads. But why are you incapable of elaborating on a townread? Like I really don't see how it could hurt town. If you genuinely believe someone is town, you have a vested interest in convincing town of your read. The most legitimate way of doing this is by giving reasons, which as a bonus reveals how you're thinking about the game. You being incapable of providing reasons for townreading a player that many people find suspicious, makes sense if you're both mafia. You seem opposed to increasing the sum of knowledge publicly available to the town.
On January 29 2016 08:12 Alur wrote: I think noon actually looks kind of spooky now, in the world where he has too much information his play makes a lot of sense. He was quick to disagree with it being a scumslip (which he was right on), he made a big point of forcing Kuragari to claim (which looks towny, but it's sort of an obvious move). All while his vote was parked on a player (albeit a reasonable lynchtarget) who is one of the biggest lynchbaits. Without really pushing that specific lynch.
Alur says all this, but ends up ultimately giving kush a slight town read, with reservations. Which is basically the optimal time to cut Alur down, and might explain why Alur bit the bullet and not some of the other plausible choices (like darth, myself... or kush himself were he town lol).
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On February 01 2016 14:48 darthfoley wrote: If kush is mafia, he lied about being rb'd. What's the long term motivation? It wouldn't simply be to gain some insta town cred, would it? You would fake rb claim to make town view the game in a way it shouldn't, right? Oh man. I got a great idea about this actually. This might be way too deep, but hear me out, I earned it dammit.
Following from what I said about nightkilling Alur as he was getting onto kush. You might want to go a bit deeper and further cover this motivation up. Trfel made a joking reference to a medic dodge kill n1. What does that require? The medic to be in the game. How do you prove the medic is in the game to the town? By roleblocking somebody besides the nightkill -- if there's a veteran in the game then you always rb the guy you shoot. If there's a doc in the game you have no reason to rb the guy you shoot, since the doc can't self-protect.
By claiming roleblock, mafia!kush makes the town believe there's a doc in the game, which then allows people to believe that Alur was shot as an obvious townie + medic dodge, instead of for his suspects.
I don't suppose we would find any commentary from kush about medic dodging would we?
On January 30 2016 07:44 nooniansoong wrote: Yo eden,,, blocking doctor to stop the save requires more moving parts than blocking the vig.
Also I think they killed alur rather than you so they didn't have to worry about a save,
I was pretty back and forth about both ikid and tumble. Add to that Jesus is my obvious vig shot, since it is Optimal to kill someone Scummy with low activity.
Holy shit! I typed my rhetorical question before I looked this up!
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I think my argument for Tumblewood is several orders of magnitude more reasonable, and several other players suspected Tumblewood as well. Inclined to take a wisdom-of-the-crowd approach, especially since I'd be lying if I said my case on kush is any good. It's the best worst case I've ever written, and while I 100% stand by it, I know the smart play is to get Tumblewood first, so I think we should.
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nah. I just have schizophrenic levels of focus and motivation.
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On February 01 2016 16:44 _MexicanAlien wrote: Wow. Yeah. I'll have to think about this. Good investigative hypotheses @Eden. Very deep. Very deep.
On February 01 2016 21:09 _MexicanAlien wrote: Hey guys I might not be around for the night end.
I think the mafia is: Eden1892 Trfel
Scum lean: scott31733 Tumblewood
Town: darthfoley Shapelog
Unknown: nooniansoong ...................
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Kush.
Why are you so sure Tumblewood is town? Please explain in detail.
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shrug, bad beats. the heuristics that failed to catch shape this game are probably still good enough.
some of those posts were REALLY strong from mafia POV
gg shapelog!
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On February 10 2016 07:30 nooniansoong wrote: And how does one catch you? there were holes in his analysis that we could have attacked, but that's hindsight. it's probably -EV in a newbie game though.
i look forward to seeing shapelog in a game with the big boys
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