[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 17
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
I almost forgot how seriously hard gumshoe was pushing the yamato case and hard defending GB. Like, as mafia he spent so so long hard defending a mislynch and pushing his own mislynch which really doesn't make sense. He literally posted pictures of sheep pens to try and get me and GB to follow him, and I can't see him doing that as mafia. Especially since there was no reason to push yamato over GB for mafia. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=94 I think a lot of important things happened in these next few pages. First, the BH-Onegu interaction at the bottom of the page did not look like mafia-mafia to me. Here's the full conversation if you're too lazy to click the link: + Show Spoiler + On October 26 2015 14:27 Onegu wrote: Ok I take back my read on Gumshoe. He looks really townie now. I think I like a hopeless lynch at this point. He is just lurking which is with the way the thread was and has been imploding I cant shake the feeling there is at least 1 scum in the lurkers if not 2 or even 3. Plus I did a test for him and he failed it hard. He said he would vote me if I did nothing and I basically told him I look forward to it and he did nothing about it. There are a few other things like his votes and reasons. I will go more into it tomorrow. Ritoky could also easily be mafia as a lurker, plus his thing following his towniest read and that read was BH. Ill get into more details tomorrow. But for now. ##Vote: Hopeless On October 26 2015 14:31 Blazinghand wrote: Well, he hasn't voted or posted in the past like 2 or 3 days, right? Although there's no hard activity requirement in this game, you are required to vote. He may jsut be modkilled. I don't even know why I'm reasoning with you Onegu but, couldn't we just shenannie onto Hopeless if he comes back? cause otherwise we should just let him get MKed if you do want to actually lynch Hopeless (and I can't tell anything from his filter other than that he seemed vaguely itnerested in the game then never tried and stopped posting) you have to commit to shennannying at the deadline if he's gonna get modkilled, Onegu The reason I bring this up is because I'm imagining the following situation: We pull together a wagon on someone and lynch him, and then you never come back all day and hopeless1 gets modkilled, and you do not particupate in the town discourse all day and we don't know anything about you, and you never had to take any stances.... So here's what Iwant from you, 1gu: a commitment to shenannie if Hopeless1 isn't going to get modkill, and you take part in the day's discussions. What do you say? On October 26 2015 14:33 Blazinghand wrote: Come on, you were here like 120 seconds ago you can't pretend to be gone now On October 26 2015 14:44 Onegu wrote: I am sleeping now. On October 26 2015 14:46 Blazinghand wrote: no wait you can't just unvote you also have to like, talk about things On October 26 2015 14:47 Onegu wrote: Dont worry BH we have plenty of time. I will be here in the morning. On October 26 2015 14:50 Blazinghand wrote: *sobs* BH then uses this interaction as another point in his scumread on Onegu, and puts a vote on Onegu. At the same time, Vivax comes in and tries to put suspicion on BH for not "contributing to finding mafia", without commenting on Onegu at all (this is top of pg 95). + Show Spoiler + On October 26 2015 17:16 Vivax wrote: The fun to play. Good to know you're around BH, why suggest shenannies on hopeless without really making a decision in the GB + yamato set of options? You know it's way easier to just join one of the camps for a successful scum lynch than suggest hopeless who is more coinflippy? On October 26 2015 17:20 Blazinghand wrote: The point is that hopeless is a bad lynch and onegu was opting out of the discourse by voting him. Onegu reacted by unvoting him and leaving. Do you not understnad what I'm saying? Can you not wrap your head around that? Let me lay it out real simple for you 1. 1gu shows up, ignores everyone, votes Hopeless1 who hasn't posted and is likely to get modkilled 2. 1gu decided to peace out 3. I am like "ok dude that is not acceptable. You want to lynch Hopeless1? fine, we'll do it by shenannies if we have to. It's a crap idea to vote him though cause he's probably getting modkilled. either be on him and be ready to shenanny off, or get off him and join the discourse" 4. 1gu is like "haha no i'm just gonna peace and not talk about anything, likely because I am scum" 5. Vivax comes in, and, unable to see due to the pantaloons firmly wrapped around his face, says that I suggested shenannies on hopeless "without really making a decision in GB + yamato" which while not literally false (since I haven't weighed in there yet) definitely misrepresents what I did 6. BH points out that Vivax is really bad 7. Vivax apologises profusely On October 26 2015 17:21 Blazinghand wrote: like ylou do understand what 1gu just did right let me make it one hundo percent clear for you then: 1gu just fuckin bailed after being aclled out on opting out of the discourse no thoughts on this vivax? On October 26 2015 17:22 Vivax wrote: BH where is your contribution in finding out who is mafia in all that? I do admit that I was hasty in reading it as you suggesting a hopeless lynch. But that means you didn't suggest anything, you told Onegu how to play the game. On October 26 2015 17:23 Vivax wrote: I don't like the tone of this conversation, there's a dick virus going around in this thread and I already have to fight with a mundane one. On October 26 2015 17:24 Blazinghand wrote: let me show you what's what boyo ##vote Onegu plus I think we both know that I dont' need to do anything to prove myself innocent since I'm getting shot tonight regardless. I am free of the feelings of "pressure" that others may feel since the only guy who might get shot ahead of me normally, rayn, has given up on playing the game. and yes I think rayn is town Vivax votes Onegu early in the day, but moves to GB and then to yamato without really pushing any of them. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/496215-mini-mafia-the-kinda-vanilla-experience?page=102 Later in the day, Vivax does have this interaction with Onegu (spread over several pages): + Show Spoiler + On October 26 2015 23:58 Vivax wrote: Wait Onegu you just said you can't do activity reads on yammo but knowing he has free time you say he's null??? Why not mafia? On October 27 2015 00:21 Vivax wrote: Onegu what the flying frisbee did yamato do that was so townie on D1??? This is from your list post. On October 27 2015 00:25 Onegu wrote: Because he had reads and put effort into the game. He can make posts as scum but he doesnt put effort into his posts. I felt he put actuall thought into his reads. Looked townie to me. On October 27 2015 00:28 Vivax wrote: I'm gonna compare his reads to yours from the time in question and tell you if you're mafia in a bit. I already noticed you had opposite reads on GB so you're one step closer to a bad road. On October 27 2015 00:36 Vivax wrote: So this and the GB scumread is the best effort we see from yamato during D1. I bolded everything they should disagree on (and the GB part isn't even included) and I can say with a certain confidence that there's no reason for a town Onegu to blindly trust yamato here, or even give him a town pass for effort when his rayn and marv reads are similarly wishywashy to Onegus. On October 27 2015 00:56 Vivax wrote: What made you feel like he was town? Are you ONegu the second? Everyone's just calling him town on D1 when I see ZERO reasons besides the activity. Like the only reason I ever saw to not lynch yamato was the fact he posted a bit, but there's nothing particularly townie in there. This one is just here to show that Vivax was pressuring Onegu pretty hard here about his yamato read, enough that he brought it up when talking to me. Vivax pressures Onegu a good amount, particularly about his yamato read. Vivax ends up saying that he "can say with a certain confidence that there's no reason for a town Onegu to blindly trust yamato here," which sounds like a pretty strong scumread to me. On October 27 2015 01:20 Vivax wrote: I might not be around at deadline since I'm ill and being ill isn't allowed tomorrow. I would really like to set everything straight with those I think are town long before any shenannies can cause a ruckus way too early before deadline. In the last couple of hours my read on rayn has worsened and the read on GB has improved somewhat. I typed up a question asking him if he still thinks I'm mafia but I figure he still does for some reason. What's good for him is that he's on a good wagon with two who I think are very likely town and myself. Rayn is being a complete dick and I know he likes to do that as mafia. Chrom freaks me out with his persistence on GB over yamato. That said, I wouldn't mind lynching rayn any more, I would even lynch him before GB to make the thread more enjoyable, and cause he doesn't shine town to me as he does to Chrom for some reason. So I'm calling early shenannies on rayn: ##Unvote ##Vote raynpelikoneet However, in his next post, he mentions GB, rayn, and me, and puts a vote on rayn. There isn't even a mention of Onegu. Where did his read go? Then, there are the EoD shenannies planned. Honestly, these Hopeless shenannies look extremely good for BH, way better than the Onegu D1 one. It's not just that BH was idly proposing shenannies onto Hopeless without actually hoping they would happen. On October 27 2015 06:10 Blazinghand wrote: OK, this brings us up to 3-- ritoky, vivax, and myself. The main wagon, the one on Yamato, has 5 votes. If I unvote, it will have 4. So, we need two more commitments, or one commitment from someone on the yam wagon (gum, xat, vivax) This is BH actually counting votes needed for shenannies onto Hopeless. If ANY ONE of gumshoe/Xatalos/Vivax says okay (and it was not at all clear that they wouldn't), BH basically has no choice but to shenannie onto Hopeless. I don't see any way mafia BH would take this huge risk. On October 27 2015 06:37 Blazinghand wrote: If yamato does not come back, and ALSO people are not willing to shennie onto Hope1 or 1gu, I vow on my honor as the shenannigan king that I will shenny onto GlowingBear He also pushes Hopeless and Onegu as the top two shenannies, and GB as the third. BH would have had to be continually trying to push shenannies onto no one but his teammates, as mafia, when I think it was extremely possible that one more person went onto Hopeless and he got lynched, or that a bunch of people wanted to lynch Onegu (which they did) and stated their support for a switch. On October 27 2015 06:51 gumshoe wrote: I think Xatalos has it right, everyone should get off Gb right now, because if yam flips scum off mod kill, we do not to ever lynch gb The choice now should be the following- Do we go for the double kill and lynch hopeless or Onegu? 2 players we all agree are fairly sketch. Or do we play it safe and just lynch Yam in case he comes back, taking into consideration that Rayn is awful and our town tomorrow could be to shitty to lead another lynch. These are the two best options, nothing else should be considered atm. gumshoe, likewise, is okay with shenannies onto Onegu and Hopeless, but against shenannies onto anyone else. He would have to be supporting literally only bussing his partners, rather than using his really strong push against yamato as a reason to be very anti-shenannies (which he could have done). Vivax's reaction, as people are discussing where to shennanie: On October 27 2015 06:53 Vivax wrote: Keep your votes on yam and don't be stupid please. This has been scum shenanny for a few times lately to pretend you're gonna get modkilled and then ninjavote. Vivax is very against it, which could make sense from a town perspective (I was against it as well, and I still maintain that a voteswitch in that position would have been objectively suboptimal). However, Vivax's complete unwillingness to consider any kind of shenannies fits much more with a potential-shenannied Onegu-Hopeless team than BH's push for the shenannies and gumshoe's willingness to consider it. Overall, no radical new conclusions from D2, but some additional evidence for BH and gumshoe being town and a bit more for Vivax being mafia. | ||
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United States1700 Posts
I think rereading the game is really good for getting a new perspective on things, now that we know almost all of the alignments, so that's why I've been doing that. #maximumdifficultylylo | ||
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On November 07 2015 06:32 Blazinghand wrote: Haha, I think we got it basically covered. Vivax is putting in the token effort, and I applaud him for that. I'm even around to chat with or listen to him, since you know, that's just what you DO, but I'm feeling pretty good about things. I'm actually really happy with how this game has turned out, since TL Mafia has had a lot of rage, inactivity, etc recently. Although there was definitely some of both here, there was a solid core of people working to figure out the game and we did it without the help of blue roles or any of that. Good player list helped there. I agree with this though, I'm confident that it's Vivax here. | ||
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N2 after the yamato lynch is really when people started to say the Onegu/GB/Hopeless team. I think it was pretty clear that town sentiment was decided on it, but in particular me, gumshoe, and BH were big supporters of the "lynch those three" camp that was quickly forming. + Show Spoiler + On October 27 2015 11:32 Chromatically wrote: Just going off filter length, Xatalos has 28 pages of filter in this game so far, and his longest mafia filter is 15 pages (he did get up to 38 after 7 days as an SK-type thing but that's pretty different). Honestly that's pretty convincing just on it's own for me. Plus, he's one of the people most interested in and trying to figure out the game in my opinion (N1 he was discussing that the whole time and really putting his thoughts in the thread, I thought it was very town). I think there's almost no way Xatalos is mafia this game, despite the fact that I think he's been wrong. I would be very very surprised if the mafia team isn't exactly GB + Onegu + Hopeless. That's both by PoE and by scumminess in thread. My list looks like: ritoky gumshoe Xatalos BH (almost certainly town) rayn Vivax (very likely town) Hopeless Onegu GB (mafia) The gap between the top two groups is much much smaller than the gap to the bottom group I really liked some of the stuff that BH posted near the end of deadline (good thoughts about GB and yamato, and his analysis makes it clear that he's actively trying to solve the game with a townie thought process). In addition, his shennanies make it very hard to put him on a team with either GB or Onegu, and I don't think there's any way both of them can be town. Both rayn and Vivax can basically only be mafia if GB isn't, which I think is highly unlikely of course. The fact that rayn came back after leaving and pushed GB with good points is very townie, in addition to the fact that I really liked his snarky comments around the lynch and his frustration seems genuine (at Xatalos/Slam). And he's been active in figuring out the game since he came back. The only thing I don't like about Vivax is the fact that his read on me doesn't seem to have evolved at all since D1, even though I think I've been playing way differently (he still thinks I have low thread interaction? my posting has not been "mechanical" at all today, why is he confused by my insistence on GB). But he's also been posting a lot of townie thoughts and has been active in figuring stuff out, so he's still probably town. By the way, I don't think not shenannying to GB is a sign of mafia at all. I think my logic was correct that flipping two players at the same time was a bad idea here, and the players who could have switched didn't have a lot of time to think about it and make a decision anyway, if they were even in the thread at the time. So: GlowingBear + Onegu + Hopeless I'll probably post more about all of these this phase (particularly Onegu because I haven't said a lot about him so far). On October 27 2015 23:22 gumshoe wrote: I just dont think that a scum rayn in a good position would forfeit thread control and be a huge dick to people THAT HES NOT ACTUALLY MAD AT IF HES SCUM. Basically I dont think a) that rayn is that kind of a cock(and i dont mean that big, cause he can be massive just not that kind, as hes in hes not the sort of player who prefers to win as scum by pretending to be a jerk) and b) that the outburst was his best move at the time. But I could definitely be wrong / : I def wouldnt lynch rayn before gb onegu hopeless though. On October 28 2015 02:31 Blazinghand wrote: Ah, I'm gonna be pretty tied up for the next 24 hours or so with a really extravagant dinner, I'll sit down and lay out some reads before EoN though. I'm definitely in the running for getting shot so I'll make sure to get my ideas out. Other than what I've already been saying, "we should probably lynch GB, 1Gu, and H1" and "rayn is town, despite his amazing uselessness," I'll do some research and lay out some reasons and new reads. At the same time, Vivax says nothing in support of this plan and instead says: On October 28 2015 02:12 Vivax wrote: I went a bit over marv's filter and I say it's tinfoil time: Chrom ritoky rayn mafia gogogo So, I think this is very important: it's not necessarily true that mafia wouldn't bus in this position. It's very possible that mafia would see the thread sentiment forming and choose to just push that wagon and win off of cred in final three (meaning that me/gumshoe/BH is mafia). However, I don't believe that this is the case, and I'll talk about why a bit later (it has to do with Hopeless' vote). I think that I can indisputably show that, if gumshoe/BH were mafia, that they were fully bussing their whole team from this point on by strongly urging everyone to "stay the course" and lynch "the three". Vivax also posts this at the end of the night: On October 28 2015 06:28 Vivax wrote: OK I'm an idiot GB is 100 % mafia I think. On October 28 2015 07:08 Vivax wrote: ##Vote GB I would like say. see you in 48 h but I'll likely post anyway Which is at a very convenient time given that Onegu is just about to come under some serious pressure. (You can also note that Vivax had no reaction to the rayn nk, contrasting to the surprised reactions of BH and gumshoe). In the first page of D3: On October 28 2015 07:32 Blazinghand wrote: for now, though: ##vote: onegu On October 28 2015 07:56 gumshoe wrote: voting Onegu is perfectly fine. Earlier I was thinking kill Gb today, cause scum would shoot confirmed townies till lylo, and if our lynch menu was preset, it would be best to get the sketchy one out of the way first while there are still active townies around to disect it, but It's best if we dont waste our mislynch right now if scum insist on shooting weird ass targets, and between gb, hope and onegu gb is most likely to flip green so yeah. ##Vote Onegu On October 28 2015 08:08 Blazinghand wrote: Yeah so like there's two theories here. Theory 1. The H1 1G GB wagon train was running strong. Scum looks at this and is like "this a great train. Let's let it run" and shoot rayn. Probably rayn rather than someone else who's not a leader cause a silent rayn is a significantly more pleasant rayn. Theory 2. The H1 1G GB wagon train is running strong, and cannot be stopped no matter what. Scum figure their only chance is to confuse us by acting like they like the train and shooting someone irrelevant. They shoot rayn since, obviously, a silent rayn is an infinitely more pleasant rayn. I think our best strategy is to assume that Theory 2 is correct and push forward with lynches on those guys today. I feel confident in my reads, and my VCA supports that as a possibility, especially 1Gu. If it turns out we're wrong on this, we can revisit things, since we have one more mislynch of breathing room. I don't think the right response here is to undo all our scumreads. I think this provides more evidence that BH and gumshoe, if mafia, fully planned on bussing Onegu D3 (and then bussing Hopeless soon after). BH and gumshoe also post stuff like this throughout the day: On October 28 2015 15:12 gumshoe wrote: Basically theres no lynch I can propose that can clear your name like yams would, and theres no argument (that I havent already brought up) that would sway the people who want your head. I know it sucks to be the patzi but at this point your a liability to town ) : If you can sway them to lynch onegu or hopeless or convince them why your town, by all means do that, but at this point I cant do that for you and I'm not going to be arguing with chrom and ritoky for the next 3 days when it is still possible that you could be mafia and im just blind. On October 30 2015 04:22 Blazinghand wrote: Eh, i'm in the same boat. Either is fine, we need to lynch both of them anyways I have a hard time thinking that BH and gumshoe could even post that they basically don't care between a mafia and a town (as mafia should clearly have a strong preference between the town and the mafia, and pushing nothing is totally against the mafia agenda), but I GUESS you could argue that they're simply resigned to bussing their whole team at this point. Here's the problem with that, and why BH and gumshoe bussing all of their partners doesn't make sense: Hopeless comes in and votes GB over Onegu. IF the mafia plan was to just bus, why wouldn't Hopeless vote Onegu with his mafia partner and get some serious town cred (maybe even escape a lynch)? The votes at the time were 3-3 with Onegu and ritoky still probable votes onto GB. This means that not only is Hopeless' vote not needed to ensure a mislynch on GB, but also that in the event that Onegu gets lynched anyway, he would look much better on Onegu. If mafia are just bussing the whole day and pushing Onegu, there is absolutely no reason for Hopeless to vote GB here. The only possible reason is if mafia are trying to save Onegu, lynch GB, and derail the "GB/Onegu/Hopeless" train that was going strong-- this means Vivax. Now, I think this point might be the scummiest thing that gumshoe has done this game. I had a few doubts reading it at first: On October 30 2015 01:12 gumshoe wrote: ##Vote gb I dont like the tone of his last posts / : the logic hes proposing is just so bad, paticularly bad considering hes one of the first to jump on your dick if you use "wifom'. I'm not sure a townie wouldn't realize how unconvincing they are with arguments like his. Posted when the votes are 3 Onegu - 2 GB with Onegu, Hopeless, ritoky still to vote. This makes it look like a secure GB mislynch if everyone votes as planned (6 - 3). I thought this was a strange justification considering gumshoe's generally stronger read on Onegu than GB, who he's gone back and forth on. He then switches back to Onegu: On October 30 2015 05:17 gumshoe wrote: ##unvote ##vote onegu we need to lynch onegu today, I think ritoky is town but if hes insistent on 1gu bieng town and xata bieng scum and pixies bieng real then we might very lose someone sensible tonight and have trouble killing onegu in the future. Thats not even considering gb flips town T_T in which case ritoky might somehow use that as fuel for his silly reads. Hopeless, if your here vote 1gu, he should be clear scum from your pov. Posted when the votes were 5 GB - 3 Onegu with Onegu off the wagons, so once the GB lynch was looking pretty secure. This has some obvious scum motivation. However, there are several reasons why I don't believe this is the case with gumshoe. First has to do with this Hopeless vote post. On October 30 2015 01:29 Hopeless1der wrote: ##unvote ##Vote: GlowingBear Agree with this, and onegu doesnt seem as bad as GB after reading through their filters. GB is constantly throwing around "but what about this scummy thing thats just like me", seems like trying to deflect from himself. This post does offer an explanation for why (if gumshoe is mafia) that Hopeless wouldn't vote Onegu (maybe they thought they could save GB here). However, I really don't think that mafia would literally QUOTE their partner's post and blatantly sheep it onto the mislynch. + Show Spoiler + On October 30 2015 05:19 gumshoe wrote: you should care, if gb flips town for some dumb reason, then you me or xata die, well have 3 scum plus ritoky vs 3 town and onegu might not get lynched till lylo or something equally disturbing. On October 30 2015 05:33 gumshoe wrote: 1: Everything your saying is wifom, 1gu mighta killed rayn to sway townies his way, your are literally the living proof that this is a possibility 2: Whereas the nightkill is all wifom, 1gu's votes are facts. By wasting them on hopeless if hes town he is effectively sacrificing his ability to influence the vote. If the vote is between scum and town, and scum survive then the townie who burned his vote has effectively contributed to another townies mislynch. 3: This works as well vice versa for a scummer trying to save his teamates, but what if 1gu's teamates were never at risk? 4: 1gus day 2 behavior is only optimal if a scummer was not in danger and 1gu is scum, if 1gu is town, he does not actually know if his vote will make a diffrence or not, but if 1gu is scum, he DOES know that the best move is to steer clear of the lynch, so as to avoid fall out from it. Basically avoiding a vote is a pr move, you know who cares about pr? Scum / : the end lynch da goo. On October 30 2015 06:17 gumshoe wrote: I was wrong yesterday ) : so today's choice is yours, but TRY to make sense of what hopeless is doing is hes scum, it doesn't unless hes trying to protect 1gu / : maybe it doesnt matter and 1gu and gb are both scum, but based of hopeless's actions we should definitely be voting onegu. On October 30 2015 06:25 gumshoe wrote: from ritokys perspective, it would have to be xata vivax, cmon ritoky, why isnt hopeless voting onegu? If hopeless is the only scum between them, why not look more consistent and vote for the guy whose trying to kill you instead of doubling back on a guy you were null at best on, and town read at several points in the game? If hopeless is scum with gb, why vote him when he can just vote for onegu? the guy trying to kill him? In fact, why draw attention to himself with such a shitty vote for no reason?(might have resulted in his own lynch)? The only way hopeless DOESNT vote for onegu, and compromises himself in such a fashion is to protect his scum buddy, who has been bussing hopeless all this time to create some distance If hopeless is town, then hope is actually lost, and hes also insane for not voting onegu ) : cmon ritoky, yah got dis More importantly, these posts just do not make any sense if gumshoe is mafia. We're considering this in the world that gumshoe switches back to Onegu when the mislynch is mostly secure, hoping that nothing will change and his lynch goes off cleanly. But here, gumshoe is clearly pushing hard for the Onegu lynch. He literally encourages ritoky to switch as he considers it, which is the absolute LAST thing he wants as mafia here. Essentially, gumshoe's moves here don't make sense from a mafia trying to carefully ensure that his partner doesn't get lynched (especially considering his push for the GB/Onegu/Hopeless team earlier). But, they also don't make any sense from a mafia bussing their partner, because why move from Onegu in the first place? On October 30 2015 06:50 Vivax wrote: Xata get your vote on GB PLEASE Then there's this infamous quote. Obviously, this makes sense from a mafia trying to save their partner after ritoky unexpectedly hammered. It's very interesting to note that Vivax never gives a real read on Onegu (seriously go ctrl-F it). These are the closest things: On October 30 2015 02:26 Vivax wrote: ... Conclusion: Onegu really posts confused things. Or he's mafia with GB and tries to push us all to hopeless, cause otherwise I can't explain why he's so hung up on rayn's reads when he misses or disregards the fattest of them. On October 30 2015 02:51 Vivax wrote: He probably saw two wagons, all on mafia, is too tired to play properly with his flu. Dropped a vote on hopeless and went to bed thinking "one for the team". These certainly don't sound like townreads. Why would Vivax be so against the Onegu lynch when he's reading Onegu as scummy too? tl;dr BH and gumshoe's play only makes sense as mafia if they were planning on hard bussing their whole team, because of how much they were pushing the "lynch GB/Onegu/Hopeless" train this day (and pushing Onegu in particular). In addition to the fact that a bus play like this is pretty unlikely in the first place, Hopeless would have been on Onegu for the town cred if he was being bussed anyway. Vivax instead propses an alternate team of all town, and then suddenly goes hard on GB (the only town out of the three) without ever subscribing to the "lynch all three and win" train that everyone was pushing. He never gives a real read on Onegu, and tries to get people to switch to GB when Onegu's lynch is certain. I think Vivax's play on D3 alone clearly fits much more with a mafia agenda than BH or gumshoe's. | ||
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I don't think I'll be posting comments on the rest of the game because I'm kind of out of time here, but I think things kind of went on autopilot from there on so not much to get from it. The nature of these posts is that I haven't really talked about myself at all, so again if anyone has any questions/doubts about my play, I can clear them up (although it doesn't look like people do). I think I've made a clear case for why BH and gumshoe are town. It not only has to do with the vote stuff from D3 and the association stuff I posted from other days, but also to do with their drive to figure out the game. Like, I think about that fact that gumshoe literally went into my GB case and attacked it piece by piece just to push his mislynch over my mislynch, and I really don't see how he can be mafia here. ##Vote: Vivax | ||
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Well played, BH, really. | ||
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Sorry GB, hopefully I didn't ruin this game for you or anything :/ Thank you to the hosting staff, and to all the players! I enjoyed this game a lot (other than some of the D1 drama), and the all vanilla setup was cool. | ||
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On November 08 2015 07:44 justanothertownie wrote: When you arrive in a LYLO where it is basically obvious from the start who is getting lynched you should be really really worried. The guy who was very wrong all game when his supposed teammates looked like shit the whole time is very rarely the mafia you are looking for. Hmm yeah... Vivax seemed like classic mafia to me trying to avoid lynching his partners, but like Vivax said in the game mafia would have used their perfect information to their advantage when their partners looked so bad. | ||
Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On November 08 2015 07:56 GlowingBear wrote: I didn't dislike your play, tho. I kept saying you were town. So there's that. Another thing, but that's overall, is that I'm never putting all my partners in a "want to lynch" list and keep dismissing mislynches on day1. If people had scumread Onegu and Hopeless, this basically is a flag saying I'm probably not mafia with them. I think that's all Yep, I thought about that but brushed it off because I already felt confident, that was silly. Looking at the mafia qt, I put way too much emphasis both on the shenannies and on Hopeless' D3 vote. I was thinking of those situations as either a bus or no bus when what really was going on was just BH pushing his scummy partners without really wanting them lynched. | ||
Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
Sorry if it's a dumb question, just trying to understand. | ||
Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On November 10 2015 09:27 Blazinghand wrote: That's actually a great question. Basically what it comes down to is that it is pretty hard to tell why exactly someone was shot, but if someone IS shot, you want to review most of the cases they wrote and were pushing. Sometimes (As with Ritoky), people are shot because they're unlikely to be lynchable, or (as with Marv) are shot because even if they're not on the right track, scum respects their town play a lot and is afraid they might be on the right track. it's hard to distinguish this kind of shot from a shot on someone who is right on the money and has you as a top scumread, or from someone who is about to catch you but hasn't written a real cse yet (Rayn, this game). Generally what I do is read the person's last few scumreads and say "this guy might be wrong, but at the very least he's not lying". In rayn's case this may not have led to you scumreading me, since I shot him before he could really develop the case (i'm just skilled that way) but in general this is a good strategy. Don't take their scumreads to heart; just reread their argumetns thinking "this guy is confirmed town". This won't always catch you scum, but it means that the silencing doesn't work. And cause you're not just automatically copying them, but just re-evaluating their arguments, the scum wifom strat of shooting someone who's tunnelling a townie won't work either; you will read the case and judge it on its own merits, but know it comes from an honest source. Overall btw Chrom I thought you played well this game. I did not think you were a possible lynch target after like D2. Thanks BH! Yeah, I see what you're saying. I think I definitely should have taken another look at it after GB flipped town/we were in LYLO to see if I could get a better idea of why he was killed (knowing that it wasn't GB). Maybe it would have helped me to reevaluate? | ||
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