(Only 2 games completed: Student IV and the Christmas Carol.)
Newbie Mini Mafia LX
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
(Only 2 games completed: Student IV and the Christmas Carol.) | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
<3 Rasputin. And a massive welcome to all the new blood here. The community here is wonderful, you'll have a grand time. (Scott, come on, give it a go!) | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On December 28 2014 16:59 Trfel wrote: No, don't welcome the new players. They deserve a proper lynching. So basically queue them up, and give them a nice pre-game initiation to TL? If you say so... | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Hope all is well! And all these new recruits...nice. I see Rasputin is aiming for free townreads for bringing all of his friends here Ras, what other sites do you play on? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Heads up - sent a few messages to a few whom I think might fancy it here. Looks like we need 2-3 more at this point, so I hope I can help eek out something. As for Tube, he has told me a few days ago he'd rather shadow or observe this game. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On December 30 2014 01:03 Damdred wrote: Newbie games are bad to shadow or observe since its a newb game Not disagreeing with you, that is simply what he told me. He told me that he was embarrassed (or something along those words) after Christmas Carol, his first game, which was a normal game to begin with, with much more experienced players. To be fair, it is his perogative, but at the same time, other townies were making far worse mistakes in that game than he was. And if one makes mistakes, I think this game is a good place to start learning from them. EDIT: Paging Tubesock to this thread please... | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On December 30 2014 05:49 rsoultin wrote: I need to shut up in these games more >> My 50/50 track record on reads is not stellar. It might be inexperience to be fair, and getting used to people's styles of expressing themselves and such and certain ideas on gameplay. I think it was Palmar himself who blamed that getting in the way for some of us. Now that I think of it, that might have been my main problem. Needless to say, my reads last game were nowhere remotely close to the ratios that Geript is citing as ideal. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On December 30 2014 06:35 rsoultin wrote: maybe you'll live a little longer this game That just made me wonder out of curiosity how a scum Trfel would play...the horror (for town, that is). | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
I wouldn't lynch you either Bunnies <3 Well done taking out scum in Metal. Not to mention you could see the future a bit in carol with KSC, and I just remember you saying when you were being wagoned about me being a likely mislynch target. My, how prophetic that turned out to be. Definitely townie <3 On December 30 2014 08:50 marvellosity wrote: generally speaking expect to be wrong constantly, just try to work out why you were wrong after the game or after a flip I feel a little relieved now you're saying it's not so bad, though I certainly don't expect to be an expert overnight! | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On December 31 2014 08:36 TheWarWaffle wrote: So how is everybody doing? Tired atm since I'm going to bed but alright otherwise. Since you are new I'll ask you this...how did you find your way here? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
One more you say? *gently nudges Tubesock* Trfel, you will regret saying that if Waffle RNGs scum (and you don't). Recover well Rasputin, though I am jealous you have a four-day weekend. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Enjoy yourselves and stay safe. Here's to an awesome 2015 and even more fun times playing this crazy game <3 | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 02 2015 07:15 The Shining wrote: Yeah, I think we're still missing one more player. Weee, I'm getting pretty excited! Don't be too horrible to the new new guy o_o Shining...you might want to pay attention behind you... *points to Trfel standing behind you, holding a noose in his hand* Trying to get that last one, I don't know from where it'll come. Most my invites are EU players and even though 12/1am EoD is late, they've played with even later deadline times. As for me, I'll rely on Bailey's and coffee to make it to midnight. The caffeine trick worked for me in Carol, so may as well repeat. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
The case on Trfel is quite simple, actually. He is extremely lynch happy and is after every first timer in this game...and there are more of them (seven to be exact) than there can possibly be mafia. How will he, no, how could he possibly settle on just one of them? The answer? He wouldn't. And that is the problem. At the same time, I'd never turn down an opportunity for more Bailey's and coffee, end of. Then again, who would? ##vote Trfel | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
What sort of havoc do you have in store? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Doommaker - Old Man's Child You're Going Down - Sick Puppies Faint - Linkin Park Suck It Up - Hed Pe Very random list of songs, but I imagine one of these will work given the lyrics. If nothing else we could just go with the classic Cruella deVil song...perfect for a would-be evil lady like me Then again, I don't wear fur coats, I don't smoke, and I'm certainly not a bad driver. Damn. Back to the drawing board. (Seriously though, I'm so bad at this.) | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 03 2015 02:30 rsoultin wrote: besides, the theme song is supposed to be a blind ja? cause obviously theme songs mean we're too good to be bad Hmmm...too good to be bad... Firework by Katy Perry Hehehehe....I look too innocent to kill anyone at night. Do I look like I'd NK anyone? Gah... Back on topic...must find more nooblets...I'm out of options at this point, which I know isn't helpful. Maybe let LS play with only one game above the cutoff? *shrug* | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
<3 Looks like we're missing the one confirm though. We may still need one more. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Rasputin, I'll try and see if we can get that last one...or Z I hope returns... | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
We get delirious. Well I do, anyhow. Anyhow you'll be getting your scumlets soon | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 04 2015 04:51 kitaman27 wrote: The game will begin tomorrow (Sunday) at 00:00 GMT (+00:00). Nice! GL HF everyone! SO EXCITED!!!!! Trfel, FFS, put the noose away...unless you are claiming scum. Celestial, welcome, and glad to see another LDer frequent this area. I remember you from the Dota QQ thread hehe. There's a few others here too, but they don't play too often. Best of luck with your thesis, you deserve the finish line after so much hard work. Hopefully a good job/position somewhere nice afterwards. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
*takes Trfel's noose and gently places it around his neck* | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
We have a lot of new players in this game, most have not played a game here, so we definitely need to see how things pan out. If you know any information Rasputin on any of the players you've played with in some of your other non-TL games (since it seems you've recruited a few of them here), give us a shout. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Silverarte and Tubesock, what do both of you think of any the others who have posted so far? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
I'll be honest, even if you were sarcastic there, you don't look good to me right now either because you don't give me the impression you want to scumhunt. Even with your computer broken, as you say, you still put in a few sentences on how you feel. Your response to ExO indicates you are otherwise caught up on the thread, so aside from your question to him, why not a few lines on what you think of the 2 1/2 pages since beginning? That shouldn't be too difficult from mobile. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Lightning, your thoughts on any of the new players that have posted so far? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Celestial I have a question for you regarding your read on Rasputin. Since Shining also commented on bluehunting, was there something in the content that jumped at you or was it just his manner of scumhunting that indicated bluehunting? Having played with Rasputin before, and taking on a proper D1 meta read, particularly from Carol, my impression was that he will ask questions if something sounds weird, if I recall right, he threw around many posts at people as he criticised circular reasoning and lack of explanations (which happened loads in that game), but didn't go as far to read scum let alone vote people for poor reasoning in of itself. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
ExO appears to have picked up on a few things, but I feel he also needs to post more, so neutral to leaning town on him at the moment. I am leaning scum on Shining for questioning the questioning that might lead to a scumslip. I don't agree with the bluehunting comment, but that was the lesser of my concerns. JarJar, I am null leaning scum given his seeming lack of desire to scumhunt. I felt I made a good comparison basis (the comments he did post and the fact he did read what ExO mentioned to him) even with his excuses. That read could change once I see something more substantial, though on a separate note, I hope he recovers. Silverarte, Gumdrop, are null for me, with little to go off at this point in time. Rasputin is town for me, his game so far is largely similar to his previous town games. His reads are not always correct, but I'm seeing the scumhunting and probing I'm used to. Tubesock needs to step it up IMO, D1 is not an excuse to slack off, but I won't scumread him yet. His first two posts are not alignment indicative and the third post, first paragraph regarding mislynches reads as factual to me, so again, not alignment indicative. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 06 2015 01:10 ExO_ wrote: Also I read through the setup and its my understanding we dont actually know the number of scum. Is this correct, and if so 3 would be the right number to assume correct? ExO, my understanding as well. I'm not an expert in game balance/mechanics, but I'm going to assume 3 based on the fact that my student IV game was 3 scum for 13 players. For larger normal games such as Carol, Vivax called a formula where scum was total nr of players divided by 5 (there were 5 for 26 players total in that game), but since this is a mini, only 2 players might seem small. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Not only does Shining owe a followup but so does Silverarte, JarJar and Gumdrop, to various posters' questions. I do understand the differentiating point you made with Shining though. What would further bother me about him and the rest mentioned though is if there was a continued pattern of not answering questions, even after more activity. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 06 2015 07:57 The Shining wrote: WarWaffle questioned a few things in HTS's opening posts and I've yet to see any sort of response to him, although HTS has posted a few times since. A lot of the points regarding Waffle's read on me were already answered for by Rasputin, LS, and Trfel. Putting it into my own words, my post was worded in response to Ras's second post: On January 05 2015 09:35 rsoultin wrote: nope, not implying she's scum, just implying she's awfully anxious to make sure we don't think she's scum Which means, yes, I did take the anxious part to be her main point, which Waffle said otherwise. On January 05 2015 19:40 TheWarWaffle wrote: The first thing she puts emphasis on is the fact that she isn't anxious when it wasn't rsoultin's primary point. The pronoun issue in the second paragraph was already accounted for by Trfel, LS and Ras. That all said, Waffle still gets a slight town read from me for the effort he's taken to read my post to the best of his knowledge, even if the read was inaccurate. He doesn't know my meta, so I cannot fault him for that. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 06 2015 09:44 -Celestial- wrote: Out of interest what are your current scumreads in addition to Shining? And what about the recent read on LS? JJB was another one now, based on his lack of interest in scumhunting, even though he had appeared to read the thread on mobile. My sentiment ironically is only further supported by his latest post. Tubesock was one individual that I want to see step it up, because based on the Carol mafia game, I am aware of what he's capable of. I do not like how he used the D1 excuse, however, at the time he originally said that it was still fairly early in D1, I did not scumread him at that time because it was early. Now we are about halfway through D1 and there's a load of content to answer to and for. Regarding the recent read on LS, I see where ExO is coming from with all the town reads, though I am not sure I agree with some aspects of his argument. For example, I'm not sure I entirely agree with LS not scum hunting, since he is asking questions (some of which are going unanswered). However, in his thoughts on Shining I am trying to follow the logic on his read: On January 05 2015 23:50 LightningStrike wrote: The Shining: Town for now since she asking some questions and looks like she trying to figure this game out but again I need more posts from him to confirm my thoughts of him being town. To this: On January 06 2015 06:10 LightningStrike wrote: Also the drive by posting by Shining I think if Shining doesn't follow up on that then I could definitely see Shining as Scum but for now null I guess. And then after Shining posts on his return, LS posts this: On January 06 2015 08:35 LightningStrike wrote: As I said I needed more posts on some people to figure out their alignment and I had a null read on Shining on the stuff earlier but now it changed to town after his last post on this page. To me, the progression in LS's reads isn't entirely clear. He has a lot of town reads, yes, but even more important, how he gets to them, especially when others may have contrasting views, is what needs some explanation. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 06 2015 23:53 Silverarte wrote: ok, to work with me I go. Back in hopefully ten hours. Stupid time zones. I had a few questions for you regarding your reads, but I'll just leave them for you for when you return. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Caught up on the thread from last night, being 6-8h ahead of most of you, I had to go to bed prematurely. Shining, one thing I'm not satisfied on and I'd appreciate if you can fill in is the questions you haven't clarified since early D1. This is one of the things I had trouble on with you in addition to the post I had cited, and I don't believe you've answered for that either, from what I can tell. (Operative words in bold.) On January 05 2015 10:51 rsoultin wrote: Well, I am going to question things when they're not clear or seem out-of-place. Not sure how else to scumhunt cause I don't have a handy dandy scum divining rod. If you're implying that I'm bluehunting, though, not sure what you're basing that comment on apart from paranoia. Care to enlighten us? On January 05 2015 21:56 Half the Sky wrote: Shining, I read through Rasputin's filter and I don't see where he's trying to ferret out roles. What bothers me about your post is that you mention "questioning every one of us in the hope of a slip"...and that's what town should be doing. If questioning people gets them to reveal alignment-indicative information, then all the better. Why does this seem to be an issue? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
I'm aware your strong suit is analysing the votes, but this occurs (or will occur, in this game) once every 72 hours. And to be honest, we need you helping town more often than once every 72 hours. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Only two posts, the first is not alignment indicative, and the second which I townread him for, was all fine and dandy but as cited by others, jack all since. Waffle, when you return, can you please provide some reads on others from the content that has transpired? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 06 2015 13:17 Silverarte wrote: @Warwaffle- Thanks for pointing me at the guide, though I admit, the 'suspicious' intro had me blink a few times. So far though, your analysis has me thinking you as town but I do agree with Celestial. You didn't give us anything of substance. I want to know why you read Waffle as town when you also agree he didn't give anything of substance? What of the analysis? Or did you change your mind? On January 06 2015 23:52 Silverarte wrote: As far as my vote, rereading (and being convinced by several other player points), my vote is going to Waffle. I doublechecked the posts to validate what was being said, and it's true that there is a lot of lurking going on with only substance in the beginning given after prodding. ##Vote: TheWarWaffle I don't disagree that Waffle is lurking. But then you said before you didn't give anything of substance and now you are saying substance was given? Can you please elaborate on your thought progression regarding the substance part of your argument? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote: Silver I have literally no idea about, as I posted. I'd appreciate anyone else's thoughts because to me it just appears to be a mix. I don't understand a couple of her reads, her progression on Waffle from a substantive part (the lurking is obvious), and I don't understand why she's scumreading Rasputin or why she isn't answering Rasputin's question, not from what I can tell anyhow. I don't know if it's because she's new or if she has something to hide. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 01:09 LightningStrike wrote: HTS What you think of ExO's and -Celestial- case on me? Also what you think of me and Rsoultin pushing TheWarWaffle? LS, grabbing some food, but will answer this question when I return. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Tube, regarding LS's use of meta....just look at the way LS played in Carol...he was heavily criticised for his use of meta in Carol for players that he had not even played with. LoneMeow put it best "if I hear LS use the word meta one more time in his argument, my brain will explode" or something to that effect. His overuse of meta, as far as I'm concerned is not alignment indicative because he uses meta often regardless of alignment. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 01:09 LightningStrike wrote: HTS What you think of ExO's and -Celestial- case on me? Also what you think of me and Rsoultin pushing TheWarWaffle? You and Rasputin pushing/pressure voting WW is appropriate - pressure vote this late in the day are reasonable. More specifically, she voted 5h ago or approximately at the 36h mark. That is late enough. If before say the 24h mark I would say that would have been too premature. The same concern with WW was applied to Shining when it did - that he posted and then disappeared, giving the image that okay I'm townread and then goes off, but of course Shining did respond. Here WW has yet to post beyond those two, so pressure is entirely appropriate until he posts and/or relevant questions are answered. ExO has since updated his case on you, so let me also take the time to comment on that separately. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 04:31 ExO_ wrote: Totally unrelated to the game: Could somebody also please clarify who I should be calling "she". I've gotten confused in the thread, and it would bug me slightly if I'm getting it wrong. The following players in this game, to my knowledge, are female: Silverarte, Rasputin (rsoultin), and myself. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 04:28 Tubesock wrote: Do you have lynch targets outside of Shining, JarJar, and Warwaffle? Shining and JarJar at this point in time. Re-examining LS, WW (having just posted his reads), Gumdrop. Silverarte needs to answer my questions, but I want to see her responses. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 04:59 Trfel wrote: Wait, the voting deadline is tonight? I thought it was tomorrow night.... EoD is 4h from now. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 05:07 ExO_ wrote: Correct me if I'm wrong but is there any example of his mafia play? If there isn't any evidence to show that he'd act differently as scum, then I think the town-meta-read on him is garbage. ExO, there is. In Student Mafia IV (my own first game), he was a mafia goon. And he showed in his posts that he had more to hide in that game. At least in comparison I think. Game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome LS filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/471489-student-mafia-iv-new-newish-players-welcome?user=LightningStrike | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Mind you, English is not my first language either, and though some of his posts are poorly worded he IS trying to push the conversation along. Nearly all of his posts have a question, and my impression is that time of night when he was pushing conversation along, it was in the direction of trying to gather scumreads. If he continues to parrot in subsequent days, he would make a stronger lynch candidate, but I need further clarification from you on the parts where you think Tubesock is detracting from the conversation. Tubesock posted about certain people not being active, and I do not believe saying "thread is dead again" is an alignment indicative behaviour. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
That long post you had out there, that makes this a difficult call. I don't like his read progression, he wasn't very specific in his response to me about The Shining. And scum tend to muddle things up. The problem is, LS sheeps like crazy and has these types of reads even as town, Carol is probably a great example of this. He was a special role and I told him post-game his reads/posts were forced and rushed, he was "likeable" there as well, and he's displaying a lot of that here. On meta alone, I'm still 50/50 on LS. And on 50/50s, I don't want to lynch them D1 until I get a more developed focus on them. I've played two games where he's displayed somewhat similar behaviours as both town and scum. Right now, I'm most convinced on Shining, especially as I don't have any responses from him this close to EoD and I think that is where I'm going to settle the vote. I will continue to examine others as there are more scum, but LS I need more time to read him this game based on my knowledge of him past games. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Vote: The Shining | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 06:09 Tubesock wrote: I forgot to implicitly point out that warwaffle isn't consistent with his town/mafia reads. He thinks it's ok for some people to post short but not others, that it's ok for ExO to spray accusations and leave while it's not for Rsoultin. Difference is obviously, Rsoultin called bullshit on his absence and voted him. My issue with Waffle's reads is that he's not using quotes/analysis to support some of his reads, more than one person disagrees with him on Shining and JarJar...there's a reason I asked him that question about you because I'm interpreting it a very different way from he is, and neither of us are native English speakers. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 06:12 ExO_ wrote: He literally soft-claimed, then hard claimed. And you don't call that fear? There is panic in his posts. I don't like your rushing to his aid here. I see all sorts of fear in his posts, how can you not see any of it? ExO, okay we are interpreting fear differently. Here are some of the relevant posts from the Student Mafia IV game, that illustrated fear. On November 27 2014 12:31 LightningStrike wrote: rsoultin convenced me to be honest with you as I saidf earlier in the thread before I changed my vote I was wanting to sleep since Day 1 reads are normally bad and don't want to risk lynching a power role and he said it's to little of a chance to lynch a power role and assured me it was the best thing to do so that why I changed my vote. On November 29 2014 05:15 LightningStrike wrote: I scared because last game I did vote to much and got me lynched and I thought changing my vote a lot would be seem scummy so it just a lesson I learned from my last game that's all. On November 29 2014 06:32 LightningStrike wrote: Honestly let me ask you this question so you can get a glimpse of why I being very timid even as a VT After what I went through in my last game I trying to be less aggressive as I was overly aggressive in my last game but perhaps I am playing to passive :| I guess I still need to find a happy middle ground but also since we lost both of our power roles I am scared as shit since I never had to play a game when we lost both of our power roles in the first 36 hours and I pretty clueless on how to scum read good when we got no power roles alive. On November 30 2014 02:02 LightningStrike wrote: Okay I woke up and been reading the cases brought by rsoultin and meatpudding and honestly I still scared and honestly I don't really buy the case on kush and my vote will still stand on meatpudding until Breshke can give me his reason for wanting to lynch kushm4sta. rsoultin let me ask you had you read my filter from my last game and looked at how that game ended? If not then looking in that game might be the clue you need to figure why I am so scared. I want to stress that I am not townreading LS. I don't like his read progression this game and that is one of the key issues I have with him. There is a difference between saying someone is town and that someone is not a D1 lynch. Do you understand where I'm coming from? (I am not asking you to agree with me.) | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
We are coming from different perspectives here. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 05:35 Trfel wrote: Voting LightningStrike for now. Not impressed with his play at all. I'll say more in a bit once I finish reading everything. Trfel, could you please elaborate on your read on LS? Both you and I have played two games with him, each as scum and town, and I'd like to see the reasoning for your conclusion. His reads have never been that well developed but if you can point the specific triggers (particularly as I make comparisons between this game and Carol) I would find that helpful. I am also assuming part of your vote is based on meta. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 07:37 Trfel wrote: I read TheWarWaffle's big list post. Wrong and mafia are different things. I disagree with many of TheWarWaffle's reads, but that doesn't make him mafia. I find it hard to see how he got some of those reads, but that doesn't make him mafia. To me, it looks like he is searching for mafia, albeit poorly and infrequently. That makes me a bit hesitant to lynch him. Yea, this is why I want to see responses from him to our questions, I want to hear from him, as do others, but he needs to find a charging station first... | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
First off, the vote analysis. Starting with the isolated votes: So Gumdrop and Celestial already voted outside the wagons, Celestial has already explained away (which I need to have a further look at), but it's Gumdrop's turn, I think Tube called him earlier saying in no world would ExO be done for. It doesn't appear Gumdrop was in thread, but if you were, whom would you have voted for and what are your thoughts now? On the main wagon, I highly doubt the entire scumteam (on page 11 I made assumptions there would be 3 scum) voted Waffle, because that is too obvious for D1. However, 2 of the votes on that wagon were sheep votes off someone with decent town cred, so it's likely at least 1 scum somewhere could have taken advantage. WW made his claim 95 minutes prior to EoD. Of the votes coming in after that according to the vote thread, only Shining voted Waffle. To me, Shining's vote on Waffle in of itself is not alignment indicative. I had interpreted that as him trying to prevent a quickhammer on himself, considering his question on the tie vote. I had other issues with Shining and he still hasn't answered some of the concerns previously addressed with him. Silverarte was out of thread because of her schedule. Voted WW earlier, and admits she was convinced by others. I looked closer at her read progression on WW and some of her other scumreads. She admits she sheeped the points made on WW (presumably by Rasputin) but looking at her filter I don't understand what in her mind made WW more scummy than say JJB, whom she was also scumreading and I still don't understand where she stood on Rasputin prior to voting. I'm assuming town at the time she voted because she obviously sheeped her, but I wonder if anything has since changed post-lynch. I'd really like her to clarify/update her reads. LS, well, deary me. I was 50/50 on this guy but now he looks worse. I looked at the exchange between him and Rasputin and aside from the whole blue role controversy I'm just not buying this: On January 07 2015 11:16 LightningStrike wrote: I thought that Shining didn't have a lot votes at the time and I tunneled to hard on TWW I'm sorry As town, I don't know how not observing the votes near EoD would fly. He said he's tunnelled too hard on Waffle, so I decided to work backwards on read progression. Tunnelled? Really? Going through LS's filter, he goes on from a scum read post on Shining to a vote on WW on page 17, 17 minutes after Rasputin votes him. In his filter, there is zero progression to WW up to the time he votes him. After his vote I see one repetition in his filter of why he voted but I don't see any followup questions, or him making a bigger case. Then he says he's tunnelled on him. I don't even. It just seems to me too convenient of a vote. In contrast, Tubesock was actually tunnelled on WW and I could at least follow where he was coming from, why he asked the questions he did. In his filter there are 10+ posts with questions on WW and explanations on WW's read post. None of that from LS. Once again, negligible/poor read progression leading up to his vote on WW and not taking it off post-claim as Rasputin discussed makes LS look very poor. LS, can you explain what differentiated WW from Shining at the time you voted him? I will comment on some of the other votes as well, but I am going to grab some food. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
His first read on Shining is a meta-read, and then explains to Gumdrop that he voted Shining accordingly based on claims by WW and LS but then should have picked LS because of the votes. My problems with JarJar at face value are: 1 he doesn't really seem to discuss Shining's behaviour or any sort of his content in the current game leading up to the vote 2 the timing of his vote on Shining, which Rasputin already mentioned 3 the ranking of his scumreads, not only did he not really push Shining, at least not that I can tell from his filter, but I'm looking for any push on Tube or another scumread he felt strongly about and I didn't see any challenges on anyone else at any point in the day. Now, granted, I realise Tube wasn't anywhere near close for lynch, but my point here here is that I get the impression (rightly or wrongly) that he's laying back and just voting when it's most convenient and not based on behaviours/evidence in the current game. Meta cases are okay with adequate support, but even in this quote, he admits it's a weak case, so it's not like he's attempting to sell that point to anyone. On January 07 2015 02:02 jarjarbinks wrote: Shining- Based off 1 past game, I could see Shining’s posts on here being similar to when she was mafia last game. Really weak case though, as I’ve only played with Shining once. I could see her defending her way out of my suspicion, since it is a weak case and Shining has prodded several different people as well as defended herself in the past. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Now take that same question but substitute that with LS, again focusing on current behaviours in the game. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Can you explain what you think makes her town? When you analysed votes, you townread her. JarJar appears to scumread her (I think?) in his latest post so I'm trying to understand what criteria you (or anyone else familiar with her?) are applying for her reading her as either alignment. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 08 2015 14:02 rsoultin wrote: Something else came to mind as I was thinking. Why are Celestial and ExO mad at WW for softclaiming when they weren't voting for him in the first place? It's an idle thought but seems out of place from where I'm sitting now. I get the ones who were scumreading/lynching him being upset. Hey, here, for a little bit. Your second question, I am trying to think through. If WW claimed VT, that's poor because that helps scum narrow down potential power roles. Here I can see any town being arsed. But as a PR, from a fellow town perspective, you should be claiming when you're well on your way to a lynch. I did that in Carol, granted I hardclaimed in that one, but the point stands. People removed their votes off me or moved it to Holyflare, the alternative target at that time. Maybe these guys (in error) assumed that others would remove their votes if they hard claimed? There were a few who said they didn't believe him because it was a softclaim. ExO doesn't say either way from reading his filter and Celestial complained but I cannot find a reason from him either, not that I can see. Soft claim vs hard claim I can understand the debate, although you clarified how his call was appropriate post-lynch for his specific role. I could see someone assuming a blue role claiming too prematurely, like say D1, getting themselves killed, but this lad did not hard claim. Cops in particular are discouraged from claiming D1, but WW was obviously not cop. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
And I am trying to use other means of reading people to dissect what went into their votes. Read development is a method that Vivax used successfully in Carol, and I am trying to use that as part of my basis. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 08 2015 14:04 jarjarbinks wrote: To HTS on LS I honestly sympathized with LS on day 1. It seemed like people were being overaggressive with him. I wanted to focus my suspicions elsewhere since it seemed he was definitely some peoples #1 scummer. So what if he couldn't overanalyze other people and have a decent original scumread? Neither did I, gum, waffle, or silver. What did the scumreads give us day 1? A lot of anger and a dead veteran. Granted you can go back later and look at day 1 posts, but still. That's not entirely accurate there. You, Gum, and Silver didn't have decent original scumreads as you said, but Waffle actually did (he scumread both Silverarte and Tube), Tubesock tunnelled him for it after WW already had votes for lurking from Ras and Silver. The veteran did not die because he underanalysed people. A scum behaviour would be a consistent lack of original content, and a town behaviour of making their reads clear helps town form a general opinion on who is scum and who is not. Town tend to want to put their opinions out there and share the information and keep that constructive discussion going. However there are enough new players we have to keep asking questions between new player behaviour and scum behaviour. Also there is more than one way to scumhunt, but barring an outright scumslip, most methods require some form of analysis. No, LS did not have good read development D1, but I tried to look as closely as I could to his other games, and it's a reason I told ExO at the time he wasn't a good D1 lynch, though I had concerns on his behaviour. Now seeing his actions post-lynch gives more weight to the belief that he is scum. Even Shining pointed out he blatantly avoided one of my questions. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 08 2015 15:12 The Shining wrote: HTS, to answer you, I do not know Silverarte, unless she goes by another name that I'm unaware of. The only people that I know I've played with before are Jar Jar, RSoultin and ExO. As for why I gave Silver a town read, I looked through her filter as I was doing my vote analysis. It came down to her and LS. Her posts up until now, although not the highest number, have all done a good job of showing she's reading the thread when she can and answering questions and suspicions directed towards her pretty well, when possible. As opposed to LS, who I've made my case against already. I don't think the mafia is dumb enough to have 2 members on the main wagon so I had to choose between the two and Silver leans slightly more towards Town. Alright, I stand corrected on you knowing Silver. I was under the general impression a number of you (of whom Rasputin was in that group) knew each other, and I couldn't quite place who played with whom on that site, but I digress. Focusing on the bolded part, I see where you are coming from. I see part of it is from the vote analysis, but as for Silver herself, answering questions, depending on context, and how they are answered, could be of any alignment, however, she is certainly not dodging them, the responses look thought out without being drawn out, so that's obviously a good sign. Postcount itself is generally not alignment indicative either, as I've played games with some very good low-post, high-content people, LoneMeow being a very good example of putting all his scumreads/analysis on one post. She appears to be short on time for this game, and I see she is doing the same. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 07:24 LightningStrike wrote: That because HTS would rather play the other game than this clearly. Since you are bringing it up, I'm just going to say it now: Context please. Ironic coming from you as you are also doubled up in the same game I am. I was getting wagoned in that other game and defended myself for over an hour. Playing in another game is not alignment indicative. This is why hosts generally grant 48h day periods. Now that I am back here, I will focus on the issues here. Catching up on the thread. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 02:09 LightningStrike wrote: What question did I miss from you because I thought I answered all of your questions? Operative words in bold, extend all quotes. On January 08 2015 07:31 The Shining wrote: In the first post, LS is claiming to be ready to go all-in on me. [b]Next post is a claim of tunneling too hard, which LS did not do(Tube did) and a blatant avoiding of a question. LS did not explain what differentiated WW from me at the time. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
There’s a reason why NKs and night actions are generally considered WIFOM (or for the newer players, “wine in front of me” which means to disregard because multiple outcomes are equally likely) On January 08 2015 22:58 Tubesock wrote: I didn't even consider him being a role target. Mostly, because I just don't have any idea on where to start with role hunting. So, stuff that I don't have understanding on I typically ignore. Tube, if you are going to use NK analysis, you have to take into account all possible outcomes. You are correct that scum will want to eliminate their biggest threats, so the point you have made on the vets should definitely be taken into consideration, but another priority is blue roles. You cannot ignore the fact that scum could potentially have been role hunting. The reason why blue roles are a threat is that left alive too long, a blue role can claim at some point with all their cop checks, medic saves, etc, who’ve they have tracked, and that can narrow down a scumteam very quickly late game. Case in point, my own JK claim in Carol, D5. Revealed 3 saves, confirmed one mafia, shot HF's case out of the water along with his scumreads and got him lynched given the intentions behind the case. For any given scumteam, there are traits in a forum that may signify blue roles. A blue role list of actions is much more hard evidence than any veteran staying alive, and the decision to make between how to prioritise NKs by role hunting or threats will vary by scumteam/setup/etc. And this is why NKs are WIFOM, because you cannot know for sure how a scumteam would have made a decision. And especially in this game, a newbie game with coaches, (as others I believe have said) you don’t know what portions of the game have been coached. If you want to use your arguments for determining threats to Trfel, etc as evidence, you need to use them in conjunction with other forms of evidence. If you use WIFOM arguments alone, you run the risk of running down the wrong rabbit hole. Am I making sense? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
It has happened. An example again from Carol. ObiWanShinobi, an experienced player disputed LoneMeow being town RIGHT BEFORE THE DAYPOST. (That's an example of a hint right there.) LoneMeow was recorded as being shot D2. The scumteam picked up on that and he was shot the next night, flipped vigilante. Vivax did later on as he traced that NK in the actual thread, but the point still stands. I am not disputing your train of thought, I can see where you are coming from, but you have to keep all options open. As for Celestial, I definitely want to see more reads from him. I'm filter diving him right now. to see if I can grab anything indicative using my own thought process. I see why others have scumread him. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 08:47 Tubesock wrote: HTS, if you were a coach of a towny with a save roll, wouldn't you save either Celestial, Rsoultin or ExO over say you and Trfel? Or any of the lurkers? If I were mafia, and I'm hunting blue, I'd shoot you. I don't think I'd protect you as a save roll though. I just don't see a world where mafia wouldn't think a shot on HTS is not safe. More WIFOM I know, but it seems low chance. This is all speculation. It depends on the coach's interpretation. Since you are asking me the question, if I were coaching a medic, it would depend on my interpretation of people, knowledge of people, if I think someone let the cat out of the cover (or breadcrumbed, as you put it) as a role, also depends on mechanics (varies by mod) since some medics cannot save the same person twice in a row, etc. And now, you just gave me your own interpretation of whom you'd save or shoot, someone else that had different reads or understandings would take different actions. Also if someone has multiple town reads, they cannot save all of them. Again, this is all WIFOM for a reason. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
My scum reads at this time are LS, JJB, followed by Gumdrop largely because of the lurking. Silverarte is a null to very slight town read, but I feel I need to see more from her. There is a part of me that when I read her stuff again, I can't tell if she's truly getting to the same conclusion as other people or if she's just sheeping (or copying) other people on most of her reads. I have acknowledged she is difficult to read, input from JJB on her isn't anything conclusive though he cited her work schedule, and out of game situations are not alignment indicative. The longer the game goes on, I have to entertain whether her manner could be a way of hiding something but I am having a tough time cracking this. Tube, you suspect her as well, can you elaborate why? Celestial and ExO right now are still under review given the content I see from them today. I'm going through the exchange between him Tube and ExO right now. Good lord a lot of content from Celestial in defence and I am trying to see if what he's posted in the few hours lines up. If anyone wants to point out anything specific, let me know please. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 11:01 Tubesock wrote: I don't get anything from her list post here. I don't think there is anything memorable in it. Where is she scum hunting? When is the point in the game where your only posts are list posts inappropriate? It's a big long post (which people town sometimes) but where is any point where she shows indepth concern or thinking on someone? I definitely have problems with lacking conviction the longer the game goes. I feel every one of her reads will turn into a sheep vote of one form or another. Just like Lightning but she says nice things that make way more sense than he does. Well I try and ignore the tone of certain players when they post. 27NB runs into the same problem to use another example. I have already seen in other games people have been wrongfully read for their tone alone. I look for asking questions, which she does do, but it shouldn't be the only thing after some time. I look for things beyond that at certain points of the game. D1 this is okay, and maybe D2, but after that, I would expect some prioritisation of scumreads. But that's just me looking at my first game here. Looking more in depth at that post for example, the word "recap" is generally speaking, a red flag. Scum tend to repeat things sometimes without taking things further. Yes she should be updating her reads, but "recap" makes me wonder as I read through if she's doing just that as she gives her reads. Which is why I think you are getting the impression that you are, Tube. I'm aware she's short on time, she appears short on time to play this game...but that's not alignment indicative. So it is hard to determine if it's coincidence or convenience. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Key points: 1 The part about LS and Shining makes some sense in that it is less likely that scum will double bus, or that double bussing is just less likely. The only problem with this is that no one has flipped scum, so I see that we can't really start making conclusions until somebody flips. I have generally been against unflipped association reads, but that's just my interpretation. 2 The periphery part is a difference in interpretation. Personally peripheral votes is one of the ways a single scum can hide, but just as it is highly unlikely all scum will be on the same wagon, it's also highly unlikely all scum would have been on the periphery. I generally tend to think hiding on the periphery makes someone scum...in conjunction with other evidence. 3 The point on Shining versus WW. Scum generally want to try and split votes to have a greater chance of lynching a townie (generally speaking) so I can understand her rationale for consolidation. It makes complete sense from a town point of view. On the other hand - if I am reading you correctly here - you are contesting she had the pull to do so because she did push Shining hard. The problem here is context though. I recall she said she had limited time and that people didn't switch until after she left. Unless I am understanding "I will have to settle for ww" wrongly. But I think my English is well enough that I understood what she was trying to do here. Finally as I have just mentioned with Tubesock and discussing Silverarte, I'd also like to see (when you are back in thread) some discussion of Rasputin's D2 activity.. You obviously think she is scum, so I would imagine there is some reasoning behind her current/latest actions where you feel that read has not changed. So when you return I'd like to see that when you can. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 12:05 rsoultin wrote: Do you have any questions for me? I'm still working back through the posting leading up to the lynch. The only question I have at this point in time for you is to confirm your scumreads and/or nulls. You said a number of people were being scummy in a recent post. I know you are scumreading Celestial and LS possibly but whom else? Tonight I am able to stay up a bit late until 4am, or another 45 mins, so if either you have something for me, please let me know. I'm off work tomorrow thank goodness. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 12:05 rsoultin wrote: Sorry HTS lol, I'm not ignoring you. And yes, the phrasing "settle for WW" means he wasn't my first choice. And bah, didn't say before, but yes, thank you for clarifying, this is exactly how I read it. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 12:21 The Shining wrote: If ties end in no lynch, you'd vote either WW or myself in order to ensure a town mislynch. I'm positive that ties end in a lynch on the first individual to have received that number of votes. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 12:24 rsoultin wrote: Silver is a null for me cause she's just a general question mark this game. [...] But this is all just preliminary. I'll have something more concrete waiting for you (and everyone else) when you wake up. Thank you. That works. And also regarding Silver, I want to ask you the same thing I asked Shining (by mistake) and JJB, as a very new player who may not have played Mafia, unfamiliar with these premises, do you have any criteria for evaluating her? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
As Silver is a very new player....do you have any criteria for evaluating her? The question was on Silverarte, not JJB. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 12:37 rsoultin wrote: None whatsoever @ HTS. She's brand new to mafia. Her very first game. I'm just treating her as an inactive right now because I can't get anything from an AFK vote anyway and she's posted so little. Regardless, she's definitely not in my top scumreads that would make her a potential lynch tomorrow unless everyone goes stark raving mad and decides to vote you and ExO as scum or something. Then I'd be willing to settle on just about anyone else lol ><. I agree she is not a D2 lynch. Not in the least compared to the other options. Just trying to get an idea of how someone who actually knows her is evaluating her, combined with that you are also a strong town read for me, I know I can trust your opinion. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Celestial isn't looking too good right now to me (which I'll explain in my next post) either after reviewing him last night, but I want him to answer some questions before deciding where he falls. I didn't like JJB's attitude D1, and I said earlier today I didn't like his read development (page 32) and in his response to me on Shining, this made even less sense to me: On January 08 2015 13:58 jarjarbinks wrote: Can't find the quote to back me up on this...Shining said something I really liked, right before I voted for him ironically. I swear I'm super good at this game lolz. Then he changed his vote to Waffle and I facepalmed. I still blame myself for that. I think Shining blamed me too later. Apologies. Went through ExO's filter. I'm seeing nothing but pointed, honest questions, so I'm still having a town read on ExO. Low postcount high content, but he's striking me the same way as LoneMeow, progressive questions where he does conclude where someone is scum. He's still looking for information. Tubesock is a null - generally speaking, being tunnelled on someone is considered non-alignment indicative. His posts on the NKs was thought out however flawed it was though from what I could tell of the filter, I looked at the exchange between Tube and Celestial however, and Celestial had explained twice over why JJB was looking better in his eyes, where Tube had expected him to still make a case on JJB, even after that. So that tells me he's not reading or selectively reading. Silverarte, I had her as null leaning town as I felt her reads were well laid out, though I wanted to see more from her in her reads. I understand her points on Celestial re: Shining and Rasputin, but I also didn't like how she brought out the Tube quote with JJB, considering again, going through Celestial's filter, he HAD said that JJB was looking better to him post-flip. So, at face value it reads as if she's taking things out of context. So still null in the end. Shining is looking better to me, I feel he has some good thought out explanations. I feel he's stepped it up a bit since post-lynch. I did like some of his points against Celestial, which tells me he's reading and sniffing things out. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Back to his read on Rasputin, this is what I saw earlier from D2: On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote: My D1 issue with rsoultin is that having looked back over it her vote does not sit at all with her argument. Which I really, really don't like; I feel that if you believe that strongly you should vote and hope others follow. That being said I'm not entirely sure that makes rsoultin scum. No. My issue with rsoultin I mentioned above. I'm just kind of floating on her. Sometimes I get a strong scum feel others I feel she's genuinely town. And then last night he presents a case on Rasputin. Now, honestly I felt there were a few holes in his case. But I'm having a tough time pulling his read development on Rasputin as well. He seems to go back and forth on Rasputin and then develops a case with largely the same material he used before, but with a different outcome, now a scumread. So the waffling argument definitely applies here too. Hopefully you can clarify his development on Rasputin and give me some updated content for D2 whether you think that has changed any. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 05:39 -Celestial- wrote: Sorry, missed this. [...] I was convinced by jarjar until I saw his post-flip analysis which comes across as a lot more genuine as an attempt to help out town. I'm still highly suspicious of rsoultin's motives, with the fact that she didn't remove that WW vote sitting pretty on top of the pile of reasons for my suspicion, despite the explanation. On January 09 2015 07:25 -Celestial- wrote: I'm going to need to work this out though before I can give you one. jarjar I didn't like primarily off the back of his D1 stuff, which I felt was largely useless and poorly thought out. His attitude post-flip though has been a LOT better and frankly I've not really been thinking ahead to the D3 lynch yet because we still have more than 24 hours of this to go, plus the full night to start thinking about D3 lynches. On January 09 2015 08:21 -Celestial- wrote: I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it? You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine. Did he say explicitly? No. But that was the impression I got from reading his quotes. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 23:01 rsoultin wrote: What do you think about Celestial's can't be assed to do anything when he is saying WW is a bad lynch, and Shining and LS both were scumreads of his at the time, HTS? Well that's where his singular vote comes in as scumlike. Even if he didn't have the same problem as you (in terms of time constraints) I think he should have switched after the blue claim. That is part of the reason he's in the scumpile for me. On January 09 2015 23:01 rsoultin wrote: Also, re: Celestial's case on me, it could be summed up as: - Blue-hunting first few posts (pretty sure no one thinks that but him at this point; correct me if I'm wrong) - Keeping vote on WW (already explained) Meh, no reason for me to even respond to it. Will say that there is a ton of words there to repeat the same things, though. Same problem I'm having with it. Same stuff, different conclusions. That's also why I want a D2 update. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
LS, there is enough waffling that ExO has a point with the intentionally misleading part, especially after all the back and forth I've seen with his other reads. Again, don't like his case on Rasputin. It reads as if he's trying to hedge his bets on her and then he'd vote her if the crowd went that way. And those are common scum traits. It does not add up. The voting thing has it up in the air between you and him. And voting is by far the most solid evidence. I already explained the problem with Celestial's vote and why he is scum from that. But I am sure there is one vote somewhere on that WW wagon. Can you go through one more time, why you voted Waffle D1? I'm still struggling with exactly why you did not believe his blue claim, and you also had a scumread on Shining D1 looking at your filter, unless I'm reading something wrong. Explain to me: 1 Why you voted WW initially 2 Why you didn't believe his blue claim 3 Once he claimed, why a scumread on Shining was NOT enough for you to switch to Shining. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 17:03 jarjarbinks wrote: 2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play. Shining has posted in D2 and should I interpret this as you not getting any alignment indicative information from him? If so, why? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
There is no counterclaim at this time, so now there's no way I can even consider Celestial at this point. There's a lot of things I don't like about him, but then again if he was medic, the scumminess very well could have been intentional. That was how I played it as jailkeeper (which is a medic and town roleblocker for the new folks) in Carol. I acted scummy enough so I could lessen my chances of getting NKed after N2. And he did say (pre-game?) he was following Carol. In a coached game especially, it doesn't seem unreasonable for him to do the same thing. Shit. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 01:41 LightningStrike wrote: ExO have to be scum he called me and Celestial scum when we were town with Celestial being a Uncounterclaimed Doctor and never found scum because he is scum and doesn't want to call out his teammates. LS, there is a difference between scumhunting and finding scum. He is scumhunting, but very well could be on the wrong track. How many times have we said in games that just because someone is town, that they are not always correct? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 00:41 LightningStrike wrote: 2. I didn't believe the soft blue claim because if I was scum I would Soft Claim blue myself although I didn't in Student Mafia IV but that was because both of the Blue roles were killed in the first 36 hours of the game so I couldn't soft claim blue in that game. Generally speaking scum would soft claim blue more likely than a town that what the impression I gotten from looking at other games. 3. I wanted to see how Shining would act in Day 2 to confirm the case from rsoultin and it doesn't seem to match. So if Shining is your top scum read or was, how do you feel about him now? Why ExO and not him? Your vote on ExO seems to be partial OMGUS as he was scumreading you. I am going into ExO's filter again and trying to imagine a world where someone has posted the way he has is scum. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 02:01 LightningStrike wrote: Because I now town reading Shining after the NK on Tfrel because he was defending me and Shining softly. Mafia wanted a easy way to mislynch me that's all my girlfriend. I understand your perspective, but this is a WIFOM argument, and no scum have flipped. Reviewing your case. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Town should be trying to find scum reasons to lynch (over policy) and that's what he's doing. You are contesting in your first point that he should be going for lurkers. He is not posting much but he's still prioritising what he feels is scum. He doesn't know your meta...fine, but where are the flaws in his methods? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 02:15 LightningStrike wrote: He also seem to just tunnel on 1 target at a time when he feels like would "Good lynches" but however if you look they are the easiest mislynches in this game 1st he unexplainly swap his vote to TheWarWaffle and didn't say a thing on why he did. He went back to me then later on swap to Celestial a little bit later after rsoultin said she would go for a Celeistal wagon and since almost half the game is town reading rsoultin but seeing as the wagon on me wouldn't grow so he on to Celestial which btw he didn't scum read until his case on him. That's all I got for the case but if you finding other edivence on him being scum let me know right away. Wait, wait, wait. Hold the damn press. On January 07 2015 09:03 kitaman27 wrote: Day 1 Final Vote Count jarjarbinks (1): LightningStrike (2): ExO_, Gumdrop (0): TheWarWaffle (5): rsoultin, LightningStrike, Silverarte, Tubesock, The Shining Tubesock (0): ExO_ (1): Gumdrop, The Shining (3): Half the Sky, Trfel, jarjarbinks TheWarWaffle has been lynched. Unless the mods screwed up, ExO NEVER voted WarWaffle. What are you talking about? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 02:42 LightningStrike wrote: I wasn't conteswting he should go to lurkers I said he was disreguarding my lurker reads and said I was town reading everyone where I said that the lurkers I need more posts from them to figure out their alignment -_- Okay, that is fair, and I did ask you that question. But this...I mean COME ON. On January 10 2015 02:15 LightningStrike wrote: He also seem to just tunnel on 1 target at a time when he feels like would "Good lynches" but however if you look they are the easiest mislynches in this game 1st he unexplainly swap his vote to TheWarWaffle and didn't say a thing on why he did. He went back to me then later on swap to Celestial a little bit later after rsoultin said she would go for a Celeistal wagon and since almost half the game is town reading rsoultin but seeing as the wagon on me wouldn't grow so he on to Celestial which btw he didn't scum read until his case on him. That's all I got for the case but if you finding other edivence on him being scum let me know right away. On January 10 2015 02:44 LightningStrike wrote: In his filter at least he said he didn't mind a lynch on to TheWarWaffle. I thought saw something where he explained his thoughts on TheWarWaffle after the lynch. Look, I dove into his filter. This is absolutely ridiculous. I went through his filter. Page 2. He discusses bizarre reads prior to lynch why he's scumreading WW. He even challenges Trfel on why he's a scum lynch and not a policy lynch. Why are you saying he's "unexplainly" swapping his vote. And he didn't even vote WarWaffle in the end. He said he didn't mind a lynch but felt you were the best candidate. So he kept his vote on you. This reeks of you distorting the facts. I'm sorry, this isn't personal, but if this isn't the most clear evidence you aren't scum, I don't know what is. And if for some reason you are not scum, I think Tubesock is going to have some competition post-game as to who will wind up with the biggest ban from TL with the post-game commentary. ##vote LightningStrike | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
If there are any questions, please post away. I feel that all had on LS was strong enough, and what he said this afternoon was just too much to ignore, like he was stretching the facts to try and get ExO killed. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
That said, I'm absolutely horrified at this lynch. Rasputin, to answer your question regarding LS, you are correct in a sense that no he doesn't have developed reads but that's when you ask questions and/or make statements on reads. And that's where I felt I was running into problems, but I gave him the BOTD through D1 until the blue issue and the mention that he was tunnelled. Today I asked him about the blue issue and this is what he said: On January 10 2015 00:41 LightningStrike wrote: 2. I didn't believe the soft blue claim because if I was scum I would Soft Claim blue myself although I didn't in Student Mafia IV but that was because both of the Blue roles were killed in the first 36 hours of the game so I couldn't soft claim blue in that game. Generally speaking scum would soft claim blue more likely than a town that what the impression I gotten from looking at other games. I saw that and I'd be thinking just the opposite especially with more experience. Still, I read his case and asked questions, but when I saw he was talking about ExO switching to WW with no explanation, I checked the votes and ExO's filter and that clearly wasn't true. LS even said in his second comment that it was in Exo's filter, and doing that and coming up with a different result, it was another red flag to me. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 09:18 ExO_ wrote: There is something. I was debating whether or not to say this in public, but Celestial should die tonight right? Except mafia may leave him alive then push a lynch on him the next day for not dying. I disagree with this (bolded words) because scum always want to maximise their shot for an NK. The medic by default cuts into that by 1/x, x being the current nr of players. In TL games, medics cannot save themselves. Therefore, a shot on claimed medic will be 100%. Blues are a larger threat to scum getting closer to late game. Up to lynch, there has been no counterclaim. Therefore, regardless of setup, if Celestial lives tonight, he goes tomorrow, end of, simple as. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:17 Tubesock wrote: How important is it for mafia to kill the doc if they have a roleblocker? I don't know the validity of the no vet & doc idea, but I don't really care either. It's safer to play it in the most conservative way I think. What is our risk if we don't lynch Celestial Day 3? We won't listen to a word he says. He wastes a roleblock night action every night or mafia risks a save. If you're in MYLO/LYLO you should go for whoever you are most sure of to be scum, why take a shot at someone you aren't as sure of? That's the risk right there. The medic gains information every night through their saves, so faced with a decision, scum should be killing him particularly getting closer to lylo. I mentioned before that they have the most hard info through their actions. Regardless, Celestial had good reason to be scumread pre-claim. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 16:27 Tubesock wrote: Horrified at what lynch? The LightningStrike one? Or you mean the ExO one? Horrified that LS flipped town. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 07 2015 05:20 ExO_ wrote: It gets a lot harder then. If he is mafia (as I suspect) then he'll have nothing to lose by claiming a blue role. It'll depend on if he claims blue, and what specific blue role he claims. I won't ignore it, but will make a decision when I see what he says. On January 07 2015 05:23 LightningStrike wrote: Because ExO and Tube pretty much asked me to claim. On January 07 2015 05:25 Tubesock wrote: It's moot now. He claimed VT so we lynch him now at worst we lynch a vt. I think he's 4th on my list though. I really really want WarWaffle to come back. On January 07 2015 05:27 Tubesock wrote: No. You were getting heat and then softclaimed. Noone asked you to claim. My questions were to avoid that stupid situation where you claimed cop and shenanies happened and you as cop was miss lynched day 1. When you said "I will claim if I have to" is a fucking claim. You did it then, no one asked you to. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 17:03 jarjarbinks wrote: 27% (3/10 +/- 3%) is the lowest % you can have. I'm attaching mini-normal % increases based on how the dead voted and giving myself a 3% buffer for on my opinions of their play so far. 1. LS- 46%. 14% increase based on dead votes and a 2% increase based on today's play and the day 1 claim. I still sympathize with LS, but that's why I'm using equations over my feelings. One of the cases I saw with LS in also had everyone on LS's balls for almost the whole game (at least based off votes). 2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play. 3. Tube Sock- 38%. 11% increase based on dead votes. 3% decrease based on play. The early waffle vote on tube hurt tube a lot. I also wonder if waffle wasn't under pressure, if he would have kept the tube vote. But I have really liked tube's play today. I liked his theory, however flawed it was. [...] 5. Silverarte 33% [...] JJB, a few more questions on your equations and how you applied them. You scumread LS based on the (I assume?) VT claim. Did his post-lynch comments have any bearing on your rating? Shining question I asked before, but will ask again, he's since posted, and you're saying you have no alignment indicative information? You also have different increases based on dead votes, and from D1 voting, Shining, LS, Tube and Silver all voted Waffle. and you have Silver at a max 6% increase based on dead voting, Rasputin even less. You say you are using numbers, but you would think, when they all vote the same person, why are the percentages different (in bold)? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 23:38 ExO_ wrote: Its gonna have to wait. my video card blew out last night. im up early this morning to buy a new one but until I get my machine fixed I wont really being paying attention here. Hopefully in a few hours itll be fixed and I can look over things. But fixing my machine takes priority over everything Fair play, that is a stinker. Thanks for the heads up. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 23:36 Half the Sky wrote: You also have different increases based on dead votes, and from D1 voting, Shining, LS, Tube and Silver all voted Waffle. and you have Silver at a max 6% increase based on dead voting, Rasputin even less. You say you are using numbers, but you would think, when they all vote the same person, why are the percentages different (in bold)? JJB in case you didn't understand my prior explanation, I'll try and talk in more maths related terms. One variable in coming up with your numbers is dead votes. Those five I mentioned voted the same D1 and as of the time you made that collective rating. So why are you assigning different numbers for what should be the same variable? Am I making sense either way? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 01:05 rsoultin wrote: And I don't like an auto lynch in MYLO/LYLO. Flat out. If mafia has an RBer (and no we can't know for sure, just as we can't know for sure that there are 3 mafia, but if there are, one of each role makes sense) then it makes more sense to RB celestial and push an easy mislynch Day 3. I don't think looking at Celestial at all for a Day 3 lynch is worthwhile. Okay, Rasputin, now I see where you're coming from. Trying to think the mechanics through, if scum have a RB, and if Celestial is RBed and protects the same person scum went for, he has an additional defence because now he knows for sure he's been roleblocked. (The person he requested to protect has died.) Maybe I'm overthinking things but I'm trying to place why scum would allow that potential out for an uncounterclaimed medic they might try to target the next day. The medic gains more information and can give more information to the rest of the town. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 02:57 jarjarbinks wrote: I didn't explain my equations because they aren't very sound [...] I will still update them and apply them for this next round and hope for the best. But I will also do what I think is best. Fair play, JarJar, got it. That is a lot more clear now. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:15 rsoultin wrote: But unless celeste blocks a mafia nk (assuming he's a real doc) he knows nothing. And him being roleblocked, he knows nothing, cause who he tried to save has nothing to do with the roleblock. I'm not talking about blocking. I'm talking about the fact that if any medic requests a save on Joe Smith, and Joe Smith still dies, that he can deduce or infer that he has been roleblocked because his/her save obvious didn't go through. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:26 rsoultin wrote: And? Not trying to be rude, but if an NK doesn't go through, a scum false claim will just claim being roleblocked, too. Alright, I was overthinking this. Goodness this is difficult. Now looking back, the point on Celestial being an easy target is a lot more clear. That said, back to focusing on day actions. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 03:50 rsoultin wrote: Even though LS' case wasn't strong, his read may not be wrong, on ExO or -Celestial-. It's hard to pin down, but I'm getting a funny feeling that ExO was probing the waters to see which lynches might gain momentum rather than actually scumhunting. That's reinforced by talking about WWs reads and arguing with Trfel while staying on LS... Alright, here's a way I can test what you said in the bolded. Double checked the vote count using timestamps when he talked about what you said... On January 07 2015 06:44 ExO_ wrote: Re-reading the case on WarWaffle, I think there is a lot of scum indications there, but for me it's based on his bizzare reads. He defends somebody like gumdrops in a way that makes no sense. Gumdrops is clearly inactive and not contributing a lot to the thread. He defends shining and jarjar. JarJar's post aren't anything like he makes them out to be, and shining is not the paragon of asking the correct questions. His post is so wrong that I would honestly believe he was jester. It's definitely scummy. It paints the 3 mafia as himself/JarJar/shining. But it does this so blatantly that it scares me. And then he hardly says anything about LS. I don't know. It does make me question whether or not the best lynch is LS. On January 07 2015 06:59 ExO_ wrote: I'm not sure I agree that it's a policy lynch. Go read his big read post. None of it makes any sense whatsoever. Its blatantly wrong about a lot of players thus far. Read it and then come back and say it's still just a policy lynch. On January 07 2015 07:09 ExO_ wrote: I'm very tempted to switch to waffle. But I still feel like my argument for Lightning Strike stands. I feel like I'll be okay with the WW lynch but I don't think I can switch my vote just yet. On January 07 2015 07:28 ExO_ wrote: trfel I don't appreciate you ignoring my question Now the timestamps: On January 07 2015 06:51 Tubesock wrote: Sorry, ##Unvote ##Vote: TheWarWaffle On January 07 2015 07:07 Trfel wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: The Shining On January 07 2015 08:40 The Shining wrote: ##Vote: ExO_ On January 07 2015 08:48 jarjarbinks wrote: ##Vote: The Shining On January 07 2015 08:58 The Shining wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: TheWarWaffle Tubesock was the 4th vote. Shining was vote #5. If you look at the timestamps closely (I'm sorry if it's a mess, otherwise go to the voting thread and check bot page 1 and top page 2) the majority of his exchange came between the 4th and the 5th vote. I went back to his filter and there lacks a quote where he says definitively that he will stay on LS. I don't want to take anything out of context but since you brought it up Rasputin, I figured this could be a way of testing what you are saying. If you don't think it's reliable, fine but this is probably the best method I can think of at the moment. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
First things first, GGs Rasputin. We are going to sort this shit out. Second, this is aimed at JarJar, I just realised on recapping, that you actually missed two of my previous questions regarding your equations. You did answer the part about the dead voting percentages, and I stand corrected on those, and I understand now what you are driving at. I look forward to seeing your revised ratings and the bases for those. But again, in case you missed (original inquiry on page 50): On January 11 2015 02:57 jarjarbinks wrote: JJB, a few more questions on your equations and how you applied them. You scumread LS based on the (I assume?) VT claim. Did his post-lynch comments have any bearing on your rating? Shining question I asked before, but will ask again, he's since posted, and you're saying you have no alignment indicative information? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 23:36 Half the Sky wrote: JJB, a few more questions on your equations and how you applied them. You scumread LS based on the (I assume?) VT claim. Did his post-lynch comments have any bearing on your rating? Shining question I asked before, but will ask again, he's since posted, and you're saying you have no alignment indicative information? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 10:28 ExO_ wrote: Silverate has posted next to nothing. As I said before, I have expectations there are some developments in her arguments. She has answered all my questions, but I have to wonder now at D3 (and later) she needs to be doing more. Tube made an excellent point on this earlier on her. On January 11 2015 10:28 ExO_ wrote: Jarjar is impossible for me to read: He isn't very articulate and I've largely ignored what he has to say. But my impression as of this moment without filter diving isn't that he's scum, it's that he's just pretty "meh" town. My concern with JJB is just making sure he isn't hiding behind the numbers and that I can follow what he is doing where and that his reads match up with how he feels. He claimed that his current formulas were based on this: On January 11 2015 03:44 jarjarbinks wrote: I did this because it was the key to getting that scum guy I found our first game that no one thought was scum. I thought it could translate to this game and others. I looked through some other cases and found that it could be rather significant. My problem with this is that he is not considering mechanics and rules. Every mafia game is different, roles/mechanics are different, and even the community is different here from where ever he has played. So that is my problem, however if he can qualify his reads in a way people can follow the logic, I will feel better about him. Admittedly he is one of my top scumreads, but especially as we are in lylo, I want to vet his understanding top to bottom to make sure I know what's going on and there's no misleading or hiding behind the numbers. If I can understand and feel comfortable with this, he will not be my lynch vote. On January 11 2015 10:28 ExO_ wrote: Shining had a lot of suspicion on him day 1. Day 2 I seemed to think he was just playing poorly on day 1, and wasn't scum. But now his case needs to seriously be looked at. Diving that case and his filter right now in addition to the other stuff I need to catch up on. On January 11 2015 10:28 ExO_ wrote: Until I go filter diving, it'll be hard for me to push somebody. I feel like because we let the inactives chill so much, we're really paying for it now. I think in future games I'll be more likely to go for inactives early on, so that I won't have to wonder "is that player with almost no posts a mafia? or an inactive town?". Well that's usually what I rely on a vigilante for, but it appears there was no such role in this game. And one trait of scum is also hanging back whilst the town v town squabbles occur, granted some of these people had RL scheduling issues, but we still need to review the content they do have. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 10:41 Tubesock wrote: Scott comes in with 2 posts and at first I think I can easily sheep him. Then I think that -Celestial- who is still alive, and I think is super scummy, built a case on Shining. Rsoultin towned Jarjar who was my "strongest" scum behind Celestial minus his un-CC claim. This leaves as the mafia team: Celestial, Silverarte, and Scott/Gumdrops. Rsoultin died because she's the most important player to town. For me, this gives credence to towning Jarjar. It also would theoretically set up a mlynch of ExO_. Regarding Shining, there are three different people that are scumreading him. Review the reasons why, review also when they are scumreading as their views could have changed. Scott has the (obviously) most recent case. Rasputin who is confirmed town has her reasons, and we need to crosscheck against Shining's filter for that. Personally, my thoughts on ExO at face value (prior to the exchange with Rasputin and exploring a world where he could be scum) are that he's a low-post high content type player. To me, postcount is NOT alignment indicative in of itself, but some people here make the argument that scum tend to drop off in posting over the course of the game, which is a valid concern. I don't know ExO's play style/meta, etc. but prior to today's exchange I did not feel any problems with him. Additionally, in the Carol post-game, I can't remember which vet it was, but someone said there are multiple ways of scumhunting. Regardless I'm going to review the exchange between him and Rasputin and see if there are any red flags. If there are, I will point them out and simply ask. Regarding Scott, a replacement player should always start as null until they make an impression. Gumdrop posted even less than Silverarte, but it's a new player now. and from what I can tell, I assume you are scumreading him based on POE. I am going to judge Scott on content and if I don't like his case I will question it. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 11:29 jarjarbinks wrote: HTS on the equation thing added 2% scum based on what I was thinking his quotes were at the time I remember telling myself, I will laugh wen all of us think he's scum and he turns town. Not as funny now that we are in trouble of losing without even getting 1 right. I'm busy but I will spin my equation stuff up and post my thoughts. Based on knowledge of it I would guess exo and shining are top 2 with a very large dropoff before #3 That's fine. Cheers. In addition to your numbers I would really like to hear your reasoning in words please for you thinking ExO and Shining are scum, I am in the process of reviewing the exchanges and Scott's case. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 11:29 Tubesock wrote: ExO has been very upfront with the fact he would have hammered WarWaffle if people shenanied off. In what world would mafia admit that? If he did, this is a town quality in my opinion, scum want to split the votes, town usually want to consolidate reasonably. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 11:26 Tubesock wrote: I'm less concerned with his methodology, but I want to know at what % is someone lynch worthy? I mean at his last post it was 46% for his lead. Is that high or low or what? Why couldn't someone take away from that that he had essentially all town reads since they are less than 50% chance of being scum? I'm not going to put words in JJB's mouth, but my understanding it just reading his posts was by sheer ranking - LS was nr 1 so he got the vote regardless of the percentage. But I will let JJB speak for his methodology. I want context to those numbers, trust me I am having most of the same issue you are. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 11 2015 12:26 jarjarbinks wrote: Exo looks doubly bad for the vote LS had on him. Looks worse with the Rsoultin pseudo vote before she died. That will probably give him the most points Shining looks bad because of the trfel vote. Do you have anything from their forum content (besides the votes) that can back this up? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
The voting parts are parts that made sense. I know Rasputin had already commented on his first vote. The point on the association reads vote is a very good one, unflipped association reads are never a way to go. It looks to me as if he's trying to find a random reason to just park his vote there and I don't like his explanation, regardless of what he thinks of the VT claim. On January 08 2015 12:03 The Shining wrote: As for LS and Jar Jar, I've only ever played with Jar Jar once or twice, in much more inactive games, as we all know. So yes, the walls of text posts are out of character to me, as well. I don't like that he tried to direct today with basically no follow through, either. You can't just hint at Trfel's voting me as being the reason he died, then offer absolutely nothing else up. And my vote is staying on LS until I hear a defense. Even then, I'm pretty sure I'll keep it there. I don't believe in the VT claim and I've already stated my reasons for my vote. You're supposed to be questioning the guy you plan on lynching and this wording tells me he is looking to park his vote somewhere without making the extra effort; it doesn't show town-driven thinking. However, the second part about meta, I'm not sure I understand. He's not using a meta case, simply saying he doesn't understand the meta of Rasputin. There is some fluff, but not so much you can't follow - for example in that second passage he's questioning ExO's vote switching because he doesn't understand it. As for his reads, you have somewhat of a point, the debatable part comes in his presentation. A lot of people in this forum do not prefer list posts, and some people do provide them, but to me, providing your scum reads at minimum is generally okay. I could follow where he was scumreading people, so he was providing town some sort of guidance on his lynch thoughts. I saw maybe 1-2 town reads in there max, but his scum reads were fairly clear and if his presentation of reads is different I cannot necessarily fault him for this. Rasputin in my opinion, however, has a much more substantial case (that will be longer) that I am in the process of fully looking through. With some luck I can have this done sometime midday Sunday. It's 4:30am here so I am headed to bed, but will continue on this when I return. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Do you understand the game mechanics as to why Celestial is not a viable lynch today? | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
CASE STUDY: WHY THE SHINING IS MAFIA Introduction This is largely Rasputin's case folks, in terms of ideas and original thought. I have pulled the relevant quotes and/or given references for complete support. I have also added commentary and a few additional points on my own. From her passage N3, in her own words: On January 11 2015 08:59 rsoultin wrote: [...] - Shining (70% certain) for his start that I think I've mentioned a few times now, but also this oddity of completely dropping any pressure on ExO after WW flipped for no apparent reason...even goes so far as to say that there might be scum on the LS wagon but still gives ExO a bye when the only other one there was WW, says he's taking the game seriously after Day 2 but mostly just posts defensive posts and a push on -Celestial-, then finally ends with his only post of Night 2: a WIFOM game balance argument that Celeste must be scum cause this game can't possibly have a doctor (why when we don't know the set-up at all?) [...] Pulling the argument piece by piece Relevant quotes from the filter: 1 "for his start that I think I've mentioned a few times now" On January 05 2015 10:44 The Shining wrote: On the other hand, Soultin has already let it go and is now moved on to Silver. How am I to know you're not just going to question every one of us in the hopes of a slip or something that gives away a role? The above comment, to be fair, TS has responded to this. But I believe she might have been taking this in aggregate with everything else. I had called him out on the first part of the second sentence myself. Regarding the second part, we obviously know that she is town, and even I had not seen any evidence of bluehunting, which I questioned myself. 2 "but also this oddity of completely dropping any pressure on ExO after WW flipped for no apparent reason...even goes so far as to say that there might be scum on the LS wagon but still gives ExO a bye when the only other one there was WW" On January 07 2015 08:29 The Shining wrote: [...] I need WW to elaborate on his claim before I can believe him but I also can not in good conscience vote to lynch. LS was leaning scum with the "let's all be town" theories until he provided examples of his town meta. That, along with ExO voting to kill LS but still "being ok with the WW lynch", shows me that ExO doesn't care who dies. And if ExO thinks someone should die, they probably shouldn't, I won't vote with him. ##Vote: ExO_ Post flip: On January 08 2015 07:31 The Shining wrote: I have already explained my train of thought on ExO. Let's remember that ExO had WW as a scumread, as well. Where's he been since the flip? Rasputin has a point with this. I see no visible logic for shifting off ExO in the filter. In fact there was no comment on his thought on ExO since the comment copied above. On January 08 2015 09:52 The Shining wrote: Also, Mafia like to throw away votes once the main lynch is secured. WW's wagon caught momentum fast. This leaves the LS wagon, which only has WW and ExO, a blue role and a guy who I'm still unsure about but might be willing to give him benefit of the doubt. [...] 3 "says he's taking the game seriously after Day 2 but mostly just posts defensive posts and a push on -Celestial-" On January 08 2015 12:03 The Shining wrote: I can see where that would be an issue for you, the lying and being consistent but that's why I'm taking D2 now so seriously. Think on me as long as you need to and ask me anything you need to. You'll see, especially with my last few posts, that all I'm trying to do is help town. The defensive posts are taking questions for the most part, and that can be vouched for on page 2. Same for the push on Celestial. To me, the push on Celestial in of itself isn't scum like behaviour but lack of reads, and progression and scumhunting etc is what might have been the issue. As in, he is not helping town. 4 then finally ends with his only post of Night 2: a WIFOM game balance argument that Celeste must be scum cause this game can't possibly have a doctor (why when we don't know the set-up at all?) On January 10 2015 12:51 The Shining wrote: Okay guys, look. It is impossible for there to be a doc and a vet in a newbie game, or really any normal mini game. The idea of a vet and doc in the game breaks the balance in Town's favor. Mafia night one would have a 2/9 CHANCE of not having their shot count. After they hit vet their shot could still be blocked by doc putting them into an unwinnable situation. So just balance-wise, it's impossible to have both a doc and vet. Also, the way Celestial claimed doc is very scum-favored. It diverts a lynch without having to prove anything. There was no hinting or bread crumbing, or even pushing another lynch(why would you? You knew the other wagon was town). This is an open game and Doc is the easiest thing to claim to save yourself from a lynch. Add this to the fact that our vet already flipped and it leads me to believe that there IS no doc. Celestial HAS to be the lynch tomorrow. If I'm understanding #2 correctly, there is an inconsistency in following why Shining exempts one of the smaller wagons but not another. Which I can see a double standard as problematic. To add my input to #4, the problem I have with this is not only that it's WIFOM but upon review, Celestial actually showed some of the signs of breadcrumbing. From my interpretation of Celestial's filter, relevant quotes are below, operative words in bold. I have before maintained that it is very possible to do this using an example I gave to Tubesock from the Carol game. In a newbie game, I would say the chances are more likely. On January 07 2015 01:43 -Celestial- wrote: I think I'm still somewhat tainted by rsoultin's original impression on me. I really, really didn't like what appeared to be bluehunting (the reasoning for which I posted a little while back, I can quote it if you like). Though she has improved somewhat since that I'm still wary. On January 07 2015 23:17 -Celestial- wrote: I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt for now despite all of this because I have my own suspicions on Shining and if you're going that angle I'd quite like to see your full impressions of him over D2. Assuming I even survive the night. But if we do lynch Shining D2 his flip is going to be very, very interesting. Another point I want to add is that scum posting tend to fall off towards late game. This is a general statement admittedly, and by itself isn't indicative, as people can lurk all game, but when taken into consideration with other evidence, could be a further issue. The fact he said he'd step it up and didn't is a problem. Finally, when you throw in Scott's individual point about voting on unflipped association (which I've reviewed separately), it does make him look even worse. Feedback from anyone at this point would be appreciated. On aggregate, I feel he is, indeed, a viable lynch. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 12 2015 03:08 scott31337 wrote: You mean since he's an uncounterclaimed medic? Yes. And that we have had to entertain the possibility that scum, if they have an RB, would leave him alive and just neutralise him whilst going for more prime targets, with the next day, trying to make him an easy lynch in mylo today simply because he didn't die. Therefore the plan is to not lynch him and keep him aside until all townies are confirmed of those left. (Sorry for the delay, I just posted the case against Shining) | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
We need to put it out there folks. We are in mylo (that's mislynch and lose for the new players) everyone, all town hands on deck. We need to put our heads together and sort this out. I will continue to review more material on ExO, plus my own scumreads after dinner. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
This is an open setup. An open setup means that you don't know how much of the roles are guaranteed or if there are at all. This is a newbie game, but newbie games have coaches, and Tube already has some sort of meta read on Sicklucker which actually makes sense. 1 Scum can RB the medic, effectively neutralising him 2 Because the medic is alive, people will assume to lynch him. We are in mylo, mislynch or lose. This means that scum only need us to mislynch once and we lose the game. Guess who is the easiest mislynch and the easiest route to victory for scum? If you are looking at balance, you also need to consider the scum roles in the setup, and mafia need some sort of disabler at the very least. No scum have flipped. If the roleblocker was gone, then the argument is completely valid and Celestial would be the lynch. If Mafia RB Celestial, that actually makes it easier for them to push a mislynch on him. That is why the best option is to actually leave him alone until either two scum have flipped or the rest are effectively town. As you say, this is a newbie game, but Tubesock made the argument that there are coaches, and we don't know what parts of the game here have been coached. I don't dispute your checks, Silverarte, and I'm glad you claimed in mylo, that clears a few names for sure. We just need to be very careful and scum I think are relying on people to immediately dispose of Celestial. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 10 2015 17:32 Tubesock wrote: I want to push mafia to night kill celetial tonight. Why the fuck would I want that? The world I see, the play I would make IF and only IF mafia has a roleblocker AND it's obvious town WILL LYNCH Celestial I would not waste my night kill on Celestial. Sicklucker is a smart crafty bastard. If he has those two conditions (which he easily could) why nk Celestial? The doc gets save blocked at 100% chance to succeed due to guaranteed roleblock. WIFOM us with a vegi who kills the roleblocker (low fucking odds). They gain another free kill, and town gains 0 information. Let's prevent that play. It's easy and risk free. He lives to daytime, you bet your ass he dies that day. Or do you? Do you? Do I? Just "claim" you won't lynch Celestial. I totally won't. Or will I? Tin foil hat people. Tin fucking foil hat. On January 11 2015 06:36 rsoultin wrote: Lol, I'm less certain about Celestial than I was. I want to call him scum so bad, because I think his town play was crap if he was town...sorry, I should probably be nicer about it, but, eh...I do think he actually breadcrumbed (advertently or inadvertently) his role to some extent if he was doctor. For instance, he was super concerned about being NKd, kept going on about it. The concern about bluehunting in the beginning I think was over the top, unless he was concerned because he had a blue role and so was paranoid about it. And then there's how his discussion of the NKs was so doctor focused. He kept going back to players who were likely to be doc saves being the explanation for why Trfel (not a likely doc save) was killed. To me that seems that if he was scum at the very least his mind was on what the doctor was doing, or he was deliberately trying to breadcrumb. I think there's way too much doubt without a CC and the breadcrumbing to justify a Celestial lynch unless you're down to the last scum and are sold on everyone else being town. On January 11 2015 08:59 rsoultin wrote: Final Comment: With the breadcrumbing, I think that Celestial is a likely mislynch. Please, if I am not here to provide my input, whatever you decide, be really certain before you lynch an un-CCd role. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 12 2015 05:59 Tubesock wrote: I need to rethink things yet again. If everyone is willing to lynch Shining, that makes me scared. To be fair, I think he's a viable candidate...is he the best candidate? That's a different question. I did disagree with some of the points in Scott's case, but Rasputin's points I thought were much more detailed and lined up with what I looked through. That said, there are three scum, so the hunting does not stop after today. Shining was scummed for his weak case on LS. Well, all of us should get scum for that. It is true that most of us were on LS D2. I think what differentiates Shining is the reasoning he voted LS and the steps he took to do so. Some people went to further lengths to make sure he was or wasn't scum, and ExO did that, and so did I. Usually the argument is that scum won't question as much, and that's where Rasputin was talking about making sure that people are or are not scumhunting. Using unflipped association shows he didn't do the work before voting LS. The differentiation comes down to not so much THAT you were wrong, it's WHY you were wrong. Shining was also scummed for using meta somewhere. Well, everyone in this game is guilty of that. Not everyone can be scum. I disagreed with the meta point as well. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
JJB - issues with calculations and making sure he's not hiding behind the numbers. I see Tube has touched on a few points, I also have some followup as well. Shining - There were issues on his activity, reads on you, his start to the game, etc. To be fair, he's answered the case, however I do have some followup with him as well. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
1 First regarding his votes - he was on the smaller counterwagon with WW, having voted LS D1. At that time you said you were willing to give him the BOTD. Can you explain what differentiated him (at that time) throwing his vote away vs the solo voters, after you say scum like to throw away the vote after the main lynch is secured? 2 Through D2, you appeared to have townread him as you voted LS, but chalked it up to your newb play and meta reads. Today in your response to me you say you never stopped suspecting him, and you brought up the tinfoil conspiracy theory as you cited Rasputin's thoughts on him. Now Rasputin had a 90% rating on him, was there anything that jumped out at you in that exchange between those two before the daypost? I looked at the exchanges myself, some things did appear a red flag (and I will follow up with him), some things did not to me. I am trying and failing to follow your logic after reading, which is why I'm asking. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Your formulas. 1 Looking at the category where Silver is telling the truth, you have ExO and Tube at the bottom, but controlling for them possibly being GF. You say ExO's actions are more likely to make him GF. Can you expand on this? 2 Partial extension of #1 - it seems like for the other reads you have this 3% buffer based on subjectivity. You subtracted 2% from Shining for instance. Can you explain why such a small buffer for the others, but seemingly a larger one for ExO? I mean you go from 11% (or 1/11 as you say) to 35%? That looks like a double standard to me. If something jumped out at you, please explain. Am I reading you wrong? It seems like you are putting in numbers based on voting and scumreads? I am struggling to find context for your numbers yet again, and by the looks of it, Tube is as well. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
#vote JJB | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 12 2015 22:46 Half the Sky wrote: JJB - your turn. Your formulas. 1 Looking at the category where Silver is telling the truth, you have ExO and Tube at the bottom, but controlling for them possibly being GF. You say ExO's actions are more likely to make him GF. Can you expand on this? 2 Partial extension of #1 - it seems like for the other reads you have this 3% buffer based on subjectivity. You subtracted 2% from Shining for instance. Can you explain why such a small buffer for the others, but seemingly a larger one for ExO? I mean you go from 11% (or 1/11 as you say) to 35%? That looks like a double standard to me. If something jumped out at you, please explain. Am I reading you wrong? It seems like you are putting in numbers based on voting and scumreads? I am struggling to find context for your numbers yet again, and by the looks of it, Tube is as well. The fact is, this is D3, so you've had a few days over now to explain the numbers in a way that make sense in context. After 3 days and trying to work through things we have to question why you are sticking to the methods that you are when we don't know how to use it and interpret it. I have tried just personally interpreting what you've put forth for the second straight day. In these games if questions go answered, we have to ask what you are hiding. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Geript and Sicklucker, your advice was priceless. Massive, massive shoutout for taking the time to work with us. I've learnt a lot to be a better player regardless of alignment. To the townspeople I helped get lynched, I'm sorry. It's not personal. I just wanted to be Nina Myers this game, in every sense of the word For you Rasputin... Our scumteam theme song was LMFAO's "Shots" As you'll see written in Scum QT One shot for every townie nightkilled Three shots for every townie mislynched And endgame? Finish the bottle I suppose. Again, it's true. I was 100% scum this go. But I'm not a horrible person. I swear. GGs. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 13 2015 09:09 ExO_ wrote: Now that the game is over can JarJar admit that he was picking random %s I work in finance IRL, which is why I tried to dive into the numbers myself. And I couldn't even figure out WTF he was doing. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 13 2015 09:10 jarjarbinks wrote: I think I will never say the word "number" again in this game! Although I definitely will be using them! I'll tell you one word I don't ever want to hear again: tinfoil hat. I have never heard that word ever and when Tube started using it I was panicking in our QT because I looked it up and I was still confused as to what he was saying. GG American slang. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 13 2015 09:16 Damdred wrote: Seriously though why wouldn't you guys listen to shining about how there cannot be a medic and a vet in a twelve person game. Especially when newb 12 person games generally only have 2 roles in it, crazy LS didn't talk about this. Medic+vet is way to town favored lol I'm surprised that no one in my Student Mafia game brought up the Student Mafia example up - only two power roles, closed setup. 100% would have blown Celestial out of the water. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 13 2015 09:31 geript wrote: Also @Kita. I'm going to recommend HalftheSky for Most Impressive Newbie Performance. Essentially no one actually scumread him all game and he was able to push lynches from odd angles. While he wasn't a Mocsta running the show, he in many ways pushed people to decide lynches that were heavily in his favor. Plus, by the end of the game he wasn't in my scumreads despite being a coach. I'm honoured, thank you...but honestly I'm so glad to have had you two as coaches. On January 13 2015 09:39 geript wrote: Hey, I did not post that much in mafia QT. I'd guess that 90% of QT was Half and Celestial talking to each other. Yea, two of us being the same timezone I think helped with coordination and such, we just kept at it. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 13 2015 09:47 rsoultin wrote: also, just putting it out there the only one who scumread HTS for realz that I recall was LS, so a shoutout to him ^^ 100% I wasn't lurking (his reason for scumreading me) but he felt threatened by me, I could tell. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
| ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
First, Trfel, cheers. You know how to read people well. WP. Sicklucker called for your head in scum QT D1. I did not agree with it initially but there was enough fear of a Rasputin medic save that we ultimately took his advise. What made you think I was scum? PoE? Second, <3 you Celestial. I had a load of fun playing alongside you, and I know whilst this game was frustrating, I honestly hope you come back for another, RNG town and have a good time. In some of the other QTs I'd seen comments on me. One of the coaches had commented (I think it was LoneMeow) they saw multiple red flags but they couldn't figure out whether it was beginner play or if it was because I was scum. I was curious as to what may have stuck out. I know there were some WTF moments N2 on the mechanics debates, but I had trouble grasping those in Carol as well. I tend to overthink those regardless of alignment. Also in one of the QTs, someone had complained that Tubesock and myself were making comments on coaches. Yikes. If I'd been told in scum QT or in thread, that would have stopped immediately on my end. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 14 2015 00:29 Tubesock wrote: @HTS I used tinfoil hat theory for stuff that I thought was true but knew it was based on bad reasoning or for something I couldn't explain or convince anyone about. I figured if I threw it out there, people would talk about it and I maybe able to find something. It started with me thinking LS and Shining were town, both who were largely scumread. In my N1 post I intentionally left -Celestial- outside of the bullet pointed townlist but I didn't have any reasons to scum him really until later. Everyone but Trfel towned him. Ah, no, no. "Tinfoil hat"...I had mentioned in scum QT to Celestial it was a language barrier. I got even more frustrated after looking it up on Urban Dictionary, it made even less sense. I know what a conspiracy theory is. But not that it was the same as tinfoil hat, much less I understood why it's called "tinfoil hat" until Celestial explained in our QT. So no, I had no issue with you using conspiracy theories at all, more what it was called. | ||
Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
And Rasputin <3 you. Thanks again for the tips. Someday we'll both RNG into the same scumteam and we'll have a blast together. I can see it | ||
| ||