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Also, TheChyz has only brought confusion and only potentially useful analysis (s)he has brought to table is against Day_Walker who was attacking TheChyz with the list. It appears more like TheChyz is trying to save his/her skin. Though I think Day_Walker is suspicious because of the list, I find TheChyz more suspicious and I don't believe that as a scum Day_Walker would attack another scums this early.
TheDragoon stated that Day_Walker seemed like innocent even though Day_Walker had only posted one list and nothing else. Day_Walker's only vote is against TheChyz which doesn't mean much since TheChyz is easy bandwagoning target. TheDragoon's post give me the impression that he wants to slow voting down by defending (random) people while going to TheChyz-bandwagon and attacking nobody else.
TheChyz is confusing but I'm not sure if it's carelessness or risk taking. My logic for calling him scum was somewhat faulted too I think.
On January 07 2014 02:19 Balla24 wrote:
I'm really not too fond of dnyarri atm..they just came into the thread, found the 2 most suspicious people and rehashed why they are suspicious without saying anything about anything else... It makes this game really hard now because there are so many suspicious people FMPOV, and they are all on similar levels. I can agree with almost every case out there... EVERYBODY is fluffing it up.
So Dnyarri, why do you think dragoon is sketchier than some other people in the game.. what do you think of suki/jonny/me etc etc etc...
It is true that I pretty much collected and rehashed what other people said. I have only done so to express my opinions about certain players. They have already said what I think and my opinions are mostly based on what the've said.
Small correction: In my first post I actually mentioned why Day_Walker is suspicious too (rehashed again).
Since Balla24 asked my opinion, here's my list (minus TheChyz, Day_Walker and TheDragoon):
My opinions about suki are based on the simple reason that suki has suspected the same players as I have, TheChyz and TheDragoon. Suki also unvoted TheChyz, like I did.
sidesprang is so quiet that I barely noticed them. Wouldn't mind lynching sidesprang but I'm not convinced sidesprang is scum. After all, I'm pretty quiet too.
JonnyLaw is seems to talk much and say nothing. Hasn't voted and their accusations (which are mostly oneliners) seem pretty wild to me. I don't like JonnyLaw but wouldn't lynch them just yet.
BigDad would seem Mafia to me. It was this post by BigDad that made me notice how suspicious TheDragoon was:
If both BigDad and TheDragoon were in mafia, why would BigDad attack TheDragoon so much? Since I think TheDragoon is scum, I have no reason (for now) to lynch BigDad
Asuna is somewhat suspicious to me, but not on top of my list. Asuna's reasoning for accusing JonnyLaw seem pretty weak, like Day_Walker said and Asuna doesn't elaborate on that which seems like Asuna doesn't want to say anything that could be used against themselves.
About you, Balla24. You seem to be very active and have very much control. However, all accusations against you seem to be quite bening so I can't draw good conclusions. My question to you: What is your opinion about BigDad? Do you think BigDad is scum?
Onlywonderboy hasn't said anything for long time so I'm ready to lynch them but let's see if they become more active before night. First onlywonderboy defends Balla24, which I find moderately suspicious. Onlywonderboy hasn't said anything meaningful
Derridan is suspicious to me because Derridan gives RED for sidesprang while giving Onlyboywonder ORANGE even though both have been very quiet. Also I don't understand why Derridan rates Day_Walker's list so high.
misunderstanding about me. Some people say I changed to TheDragoon because I
was challenged. It was only bad luck that Day_Walker challenged me.
Thanks to analysis by TheChyz, onlywonderboy and chinstrap, I'm starting to suspect
Day_Walker more than ever. I'm not even sure which one I suspect more: TheDragoon or Day_Walker. I guess I'll keep my vote on TheDragoon. I'm excited to see TheDragoons alignment.
I'm not trying to buddy up with you. I explained why I didn't suspect you much
from my point of view. If I'm townie and I've suspected same people, why
should I suspect someone who seems to think like me (from my point of view)?
I was actually going to answer to you but honestly I didn't understand
everything. It was Balla's post that made me realize that as a townie I should
make my opinions about others available to everybody. I had overlooked that
As it has become clear to you, I'm lurker (and thus hard to read) and I haven't brought useful analysis to table or asked good questions. I realize that my silence hurts town and it would have been better for everyone (from fun-perspective) if I were more active. I am deeply sorry for that. And I'm also sorry to inform that situation isn't going to change.
However, I'd like to be at least somewhat useful before I'm lynched. I'm now going afk again, but I'd like you to ask me some questions (relatively simple please) that I could answer when I come back. I will read everything posted since night and I will try to anwers as many of questions as possible. I will not be giving long analysis or asking questions but I hope my answers will help at least little bit.
I will be around here again tomorrow, answering questions before night and I'm going to vote of course.
Sorry for my (still continuing) inactivity.
I will NOT join another game. Note: I joined this game before Christmas holiday and believed that game would have started earlier. Instead, it started on my last day of holiday when I was already busy. In addition, I underestimated how much time mafia would consume and retrospectively shouldn't have confirmed.
"Question to dnyarri then: If you could lynch 2 people right now and be able to save 1 in the night, who would they be?"
Hard question. I don't think I can answer that completely now. I suspect Day_Walker most.
- Day_Walker has been lobbying for their false Asuna+dnyarri+Derridan theory.
- For some reason Day_Walker rated onlywonderboy Town after onlywonderboy's meaningless D1 posts but started rallying against me since my first post.
- Day_Walker was rated GREEN by confirmed scum Derrida
I'd probably save chinstrap. chinstrap is IC and very active. Since nobody here is attacking chinstrap, chinstraps death wouldn't give useful information. It would be purely loss for town.
"If you look over Derrida's filter, in retrospect what do you think were his biggest scum tells?"
- Derrida's list: Gave you, Day_Walker GREEN while trying to excuse possible missreading with lack of experience
- Voting against TheDragoon after ranking him ORANGE and without giving proper reason
I think onlywonderboy is certainly good candidate for lynching. onlywonderboy hasn't been around here to help find scum and only voted for me, which doesn't tell much since I have been safe bandwagon pick for some time. After comparing onlywonderboy's scum play, town play and current play, I think that onlywonderboy's current play resembles more their earlier scum play.
I guess that we will hear more from onlywonderboy before night since onlywonderboy is getting more and more votes which can't be ignored. I'll read those answers when they appear and decide whether I vote against onlywonderboy or not. In order to save myself I should probably vote against onlywonderboy anyway though.
Note that I'm still suspicious of Day_Walker after Day_Walker's last post. Balla24 already mentioned some inconsistencies. Here's something else said by Day_Walker:
Also I'm starting to be bothered by the fact that if I assume dnyarri scum, there is no clear candidate for the remaining scum. And, if we assume dnyarri town, then the most suspicious looking people are me, OWB, and BigDad.
So why do you Day_Walker still vote against me if you think that me being scum wouldn't give clear scum candidates? I think that would suggest that I'm either SK or townie.
Note: I don't believe that both Day_Walker and onlywonderboy are scum since onlywonderboy has made some posts that are somewhat critical of Day_Walker but I still consider it as a possibility.
So currently I suspect onlywonderboy little bit more than Day_Walker.
BigDad is suspicious and currently I don't have problem with lynching him. Since the start of the D2, BigDad has said multiple times that he'd be very happy to lynch me for being lurker, which is ok. Other than that, he doesn't seem to have strong opinions about anyone, saying hes cautious of another mislynch.
About his comment on death of JonnyLaw, BigDad said this:
He facilitated discussion through his aggressive play. Day one for JonnyLaw was pretty full on, check it out. He went after TheChyz, theDragoon, BigDad, Asuna and OWB.
I looked at JonnyLaw's filter and it's clear that JonnyLaw was actively going after BigDad too until theDragoon and later I got all the attention. Yet BigDad didn't mention that. Did he try to hide the fact that he was suspicious too? I would have expected "transparency" from BigDad since he was supposedly promoting it. JonnyLaw's death is easily explained if BigDad is scum.
In his last post, BigDad said this:
I think you've missed what I'm asking Balla24. Let me put it in context, day one I was suspicious of Day_Walker however his posts on lurkers and dnyarri swayed me a little to his side a little more. Since then this is one of the more solid accusations I've read, and it comes from a player who I've had previous doubt for.
Now that Day_Walker voted for onlywonderboy, I'd like to hear BigDad's opinion again, especially since onlywonderboy is under fire now.
My explanation is available here:
Well that's awkward. I just didn't notice that... I hope you don't think that I was relying on somebody not seeing it. Of course this somewhat lowers my suspicion, but I'm still willing to lynch BigDad. His playstyle in D2 just seems so scummish to me.
I'd still like to hear his new opinion on you Day_Walker.
My opinion on sidesprang:
Hasn't been very active and didn't bring much analysis to table early. It didn't alert me back then but on retrospective I find it somewhat alarming that their first vote was on theDragoon because "Voting for yourself make it an autovote for me." . sidesprang doesn't seem to have strong opinions.
Or didn't, until sidesprang posted about onlywonderboy. I think that links that sidesprang posted are very useful and helped me analyze onlywonderboy (if it's correct that onlywonderboy is scum). If onlywonderboy flips as scum, sidesprang will be heavily leaning town in my eyes (if it turns out that there is SK, I will consider the possibility that sidesprang is the SK).
Another note that I made was that sidesprang wasn't overly eager to vote me at D2 like BigDaddy.
So actually I'm NOT happy to lynch sidesprang this day.
Most of your arguments against me are incredibly onesided.
- I wasn't posturing and preparing bandwagon onto you. I propably wouldn't have said anything about you or onlywonderboy if I wasn't asked to give my opinions. Before I was asked, I was against Day_Walker.
- I posted against theDragoon after reading YOUR post and I was actually first to vote against theDragoon
- You are twisting my words. I didn't say I was voting onlywonderboy because of saving myself. I said I should, for *transparency*. I really thought onlywonderboy was scum. I wish onlywonderboy would have "shown his membership card" by giving proper defense.
And I'm still expecting for some opinion from you BigDad on Day_Walker after Day_Walker decided to vote against onlywonderboy. And what is your opinion on Asuna? And what do you think about sidespring since sidespring voted against me?
Going away now. Will be back later.
I'm having problem understanding your first questions last part:
Who is your backup scum pick for each team in the case that you think it makes them NOT a scumteam? IE, Day_walker + ___ and BigDad + _______
Could you clarify your question?
Ok that certainly clarified. Your question. Currently I suspect BigDad most, but I'm not sure who would be second most suspicious. Since onlywonderboy turned out to be townie, I'm suspecting sidesprang again. sidesprang's filter has only one mention of BigDad. sidesprang said they would look into BigDad but hasn't said anything yet. I'm somewhat suspicious of Day_Walker, but Day_Walker doesn't seem very probable scum buddy for BigDad.
So quick analysis tells me that BigDad and sidesprang might be in scum team.
I'll look through some filters and give you more detailed answer and anwer the other question. Meanwhile, I'll ask question of my own. I need to learn more about sidesprang.
What is your read on BigDad? Who would be his scum buddy if he was scum?
As I said, I'm preparing to give more detailed anwers. Sorry for delay, but I'm quite slow at analyzing.
Here's my anwser to your second question.
- Can you reiterate why Day_Walker was NOT a better lynch than OWB?
OWB seemed more likely target to me after looking at his earlier games. OWB didn't seem to give much analysis while Day_Walker did. Even though I hadn't really mentioned it, I had suspected OWB earlier. Both of them seemed like good candidates and I can't really tell (yet) if either of them was much stronger candidate than other.
And in all honesty I have to say that my survival instinct had some, perhaps notable, influence too. I was going to die, and some people had already started to vote against OWB. I prefer not to die, especially if there's strong scum candidate.
Now I'll look for scum combos and answer your first question in both ways.
- BigDad pushed for a Day_Walker lynch on D1. What do you make of this? Who is your backup scum pick for each team in the case that you think it makes them NOT a scumteam?
I think most potential buddy for Day_Walker (if BigDad wasn't scum) would be:
Even though sidesprang has multiple times made seemingly critical posts against Day_Walker, they all have conditions like these:
Only way that post makes sense if Day_Walker is mafia is if thedragoon is mafia.
When I read his filter I see a possibility for him being scum, however I think its way more likely for him to be scum if theDragoon is scum.
D2 sidesprang started to doubt Day_Walker's scumminess:
'm trying to read into Derrida's filter, and I think Day_Walker also comes out more town from it. I doubt a he would buddy up like he did in the first post if Day_Walker was scum. I think it would be more an attempt to pocket him than anything else.
Day_Walker did somewhat same thing towards sidesprang. D1 mildly suspicious, but D2:
Based on Derrida's post sidesprang looks like town to me, and will look even more town if dynarri flips scum.
This could all be genuine mistrust or it could be clever distancing scheme.
I looked through all other filters but chinstraps, theDragoon's, OWB's, yours and JonnyLaw's filter and I can't really think any other as potential buddy. suki hasn't been against Day_Walker much, but suki seems to have brought lot of analysis to the table and her suspicions on BigDad seem very sincere.
Overall I believe that BigDad is the most suspicious here. And analysis given above is based on assumption that BigDad isn't scum. I don't feel like BigDad's accusations against DW are too strong. Day_Walker was critized long before BigDad had said anything. BigDad's suspicions didn't seem to last for long either. BigDad unvoted long before the end of D1. So I believe that BigDad and Day_Walker COULD be scum buddies.i