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On October 15 2013 17:25 Seuss wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2013 11:29 Bereft wrote: also lawl, adding July to that list, just read his post above. July, please give us some reads within the next 12 hours -- that should be enough time for you to "safely and calmly" get your reads together. We don't actually need every last poster giving a full list of reads. In fact, it's a fairly decent way for mafia members to look productive without actually contributing anything useful. The thread is also drawing very quiet, which is good news for the mafia, so I'm going to incite some discussion. At this point I believe istandwithmitt is just an absolutely terrible player/communicator. He's confrontational, dogmatic, egotistical, and generally a pain in the butt, but he's drawn way, way more negative attention to himself than makes sense for mafia. Bereft is right that we should be focusing on finding other targets right now. To that end, I believe the two most likely mafia players are SagaZ and July617. I'll present each case in turn. + Show Spoiler [SagaZ] +While he was the first player to post following the start of the game, he's been a sparse participant since. His first post immediately drew suspicion for a number of reasons. 1. Despite its word count it's actually very light on content. 2. The actual suggestions contained within are highly questionable. Observe: On October 14 2013 11:26 SagaZ wrote: As a disclaimer early, I think we should all agree on something. We are all newbies here, so if you fuck up or say something dumb, don't play the "oh sorry, I am new I didn't know". [/color]
[color=green]Seuss is our confirmed town, we should try to organize around him. For a day 1 lynch, I think lynching some1 innactive is the best way to go.[/color] Having innactive players around just give mafia the opportunity to sit back and do nothing while town runs around screaming at each other. So give information about yourself if you can, so that others will be able to read you easy.
My stance this early is easy: I will vote for people that post nothing worthy or nothing at all, unless some1 slips. I am also more likely to vote for people that say suspicious stuff and then say "sorry I didn't know I am new" SagaZ spends both the first and last paragraphs primarily rambling about how people shouldn't play the newbie card. If all he really wanted to do was encourage newbies to post, as he later claimed, he could easily have done so with a far more positive tone. He doesn't sound like he's encouraging newbies as much as discouraging them. While he does make two seemingly reasonable suggestions, they are obvious and ultimately counter-productive. As the sole confirmed townie in the game, my lifespan is likely to be short. Rallying around me exclusively would simply set the town up for trouble upon my inevitable death. Similarly, lynching players who'll simply be modkilled does nothing for the town either. So SagaZ' first post discouraged activity and made no useful suggestions. That's enough to arouse suspicion, but not to conclude he is mafia. That brings us to his second post: On October 14 2013 20:11 SagaZ wrote: Of course I meant lurker lynch, afkers will get modkilled after all. If one guy is not saying anything in the thread or very little, but still turn out to vote for people without giving reasoning... that would be very scum telling to me. I guess it is fairly obvious to everyone, but pointing it out will make them talk whether they want it or not, and that gives information. I took the opportunity of the first post to basically say "game started, don't hide behind your inexperience and post".
For town to win we need 2 thing: - Get everyone active - Organize around our confirmed towny Seuss
@nyxnyxnyx: Care to explain why you trust Odin? Him being so hyper posty makes me nervous but he actually present points for us to discuss on, which creates discussion and is therefore good for town. It is weird to me at least that you come in, decide to side with odin even thought we have a confirmed townie. In this post he claims he meant "lurker" when he said "inactive". However, in his first post he clearly stated that his potential vote targets included those who posted "nothing at all". SagaZ is backpedaling here, and making it seem reasonable by repeating the reasoning that undermined his previous position. He also very carefully drops his excuse for the weird newbie-discouraging rambling at the end of an unrelated paragraph, burying it. "Getting everyone active" is an important step for towns looking to win, but SagaZ doesn't actually have any suggestions on how to do that, and doesn't participate enough himself. He again says everyone should organize around me, also without suggesting how or acknowledging the obvious flaw in the strategy (e.g. I'm a dead man walking). Finally, he ends the post promoting discord. While nyxnyxnyx' decision to trust Odin could have used some additional vetting, at that point Odin was at the nexus of a fairly chaotic argument, and rallying behind his "let's randomly pick someone and put them in the hotseat to get information flowing" idea would have killed a lot of the useless chatter while promoting helpful discussion. Questioning nyxnyxnyx at this point only served to perpetuate the pointless debate, and promote distrust. SagaZ third post was entirely inconsequential, and above analysis. His fourth post at least pretended to have substance: On October 15 2013 05:02 SagaZ wrote: First impressions: going into this I was feeling most uncomfortable with nyxnyxnyx, blindly following some1 sounds like a pretty bad idea for a town, and especially stating it in the thread sounds more to me like he was trying to get onto OdinOfPergo's good side. And the I read istandwithmitt's post and I'm like wtf. He voted for me at the beginning and I thought it was alright, aggressive play-style pointing fingers early to get some heat and get the discussion going, but then instead of making use of it he just go silent. And now this switcharoo vote with no explanation and abrasive behavior?
There are a lot of words in this post, but it essentially says nothing. The entire latter half is a rehash of what everyone else had already said about istandwithmitt. The former half mostly repeats his previous misgivings about nyxnyxnyx' decision, adding an extra touch of distrust of both nyx and Odin. No progress towards anything happens over the course of these paragraphs. Finally, there's SagaZ latest post: On October 15 2013 05:20 SagaZ wrote: I'd like to hear what playerboy345 has to say to Istandwithmitt's accusations; just complete the weird triangle between them 2 and E00e. At this point debating with istandwithmitt was utterly pointless, whoever was doing it. I had said as much earlier. Promoting a useless discussion is never helpful to the town. It is for these reasons that I believe SagaZ has a very high probability of being mafia, and is worthy of a lynching. + Show Spoiler [July617] +July has posted 6 times since the game began (I'm excluding his edit explanation and apology), and he's made a solid point once. Look for yourself: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430766&user=July617The only useful contribution he's made was his response to Odin's confusing RNG plan. At the time Odin's confusing manner of communicating made it seem like the plan was to randomly select someone, lynch them, and call it a day. That ultimately wasn't what Odin was aiming for, but at the time it seemed that way and if July hadn't responded as he did someone else would have. Which brings us to his other 5 posts. They all say essentially the same thing, "I don't want to lynch anyone yet, let's wait and talk more." If everyone was jumping to conclusions in the first four hours istandwithmitt style that might have been fine, but with practically half our time spent he's still waiting for a sign from God (or is it the Godfather?). The only player who has contributed less is Balla24, who hasn't posted at all. Keeping his head this low, and trying to keep people deferring the lynching decision as long as possible, makes it a high probability that July617 is mafia. Until such time as either or both of these individuals has a convincing defense established, it's my preference that we lynch one of them over istandwithmitt, much as it pains me.
While I respect and relate to your judgment of istandwithmitt, I think if there's ever a day where we can afford to lynch the weakest town instead of a mafia, it's day 1. If he's mafia at this point, then all is well. If he's town, then I think it's better we get rid of him now rather than let him end up in the final 3 and remain a target of suspicion - in addition to the possibility that his seemingly arbitrary reads could end up being the final deciding vote on who is mafia or not.
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On October 15 2013 21:12 playerboy345 wrote: Okay so you think he is pro-town because a first post and because he agrees on something with you? I'm sorry, I don't agree with your read here.
So instead of analysing this post word for word (I barely slept today and I don't want to delay this post too much as I want to put some content out there) I'll just ask you why you are so sure that either SagaZ OR istwithandmitt are scum (and why they can't be scum mates)
Short answer, I'm not anymore. It was a poor attempt to contribute some analysis on my part.
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If the majority really wants to lynch Vonthin over istandwithmitt, I can't really stop it.
I still think istandwithmitt is the better lynch for today though as he is just going to be dead-weight unless he drastically changes his play.
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On October 16 2013 00:43 nyxnyxnyx wrote: Because Odin probably knows how to play this game better than I do and he's voting for him right now.
If you're town, please stop this line of reasoning.
Think for yourself and give your own reasons for voting or reading the way you do.
"X did it too" isn't justifiable town play.
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On October 16 2013 06:10 playerboy345 wrote:Okay, so there is a chance he is not a cop, but it still annoys the crap out of me, why would you EVER discuss anything related to cops on the beginning of day 1? It just doesn't make sense to me, if you need information about such stuff you should ask your coach. Show nested quote +On October 16 2013 01:38 Balla24 wrote: One thing I would like to mention, though, that is somewhat irrelevant at the moment but might be relevant tomorrow: the E00 cop thing. In my opinion, e00's post was a perfectly reasonable topic (when should cop come out?) to talk about, albeit at a bad time since there were already several moving pieces in the game at that point. What is interesting however, is how playerboy jumps on it as if it was the worst possible thing a townie could do. It's like he didn't even think about what e00 was actually saying and wanted to gain town cred by stopping him from talking about something that he shouldn't be talking about (which would be things like, who cop should check, who doctor should save etc etc etc). Suspicious. I just wanted to get this out there so I don't forget tomorrow.
Lastly I'd like to apologize for not being around for the first 36 hours, but I am now fully active and will be until the end of the game (people from last game can vouch for my activity levels). Something came up and I had to go out of town where I barely had any time to read the thread and post from my phone. Perfectly reasonable, not at the start of day 1 though. And yes I jumped on him because I read it as soft-claiming cop, which is as you will most likely agree, retarded to do at day 1. Also even though it may not matter all that much in this game, you played mafia with me last game and should sort of know my playstyle, I wouldn't try to gain town cred by jumping on someone but I'd use other methods. Show nested quote +On October 16 2013 02:03 E00e wrote: And by the way dont be fooled into agreeing with me because you think I am as playerboy put it soft claiming cop. I will neither confirm nor deny that I am the cop but in any case I dont think there is enough evidence to follow me so you should not do it. Why do you feel the need to point this out? It might be just me but I feel like you are trying too hard to look towny. (It looks like a similair mistake I made in my first game where I was mafia.) Show nested quote +On October 16 2013 05:07 SagaZ wrote: Back, so july still hasn't said shit. At least Vonthin has.
Mitt to me looks like a third party role: a serial killer. What I think is he took the power to be immune to alignment checks, so now he plays extremely over the top mafia so we really don't feel comfortable lynching him, but since his cop check is going to be town he gets the free pass to play bad town, not help with anything and do his business at night. He has no problem pointing fingers at everyone with reasoning because for him he doesn't need one. Everyone is his enemy so he is happy with anyone dying. His last voting for himself move looks to me like a very bad martyr play.
I might be totally mistaken but this is how I see it, he plays in a way that is horrible for town if he is town, and horrible for mafia if he is mafia; I want to think there's more to this.
Vonthin looks scummier by the hour, he jumps on the mitt's ship, gets called out on it then backtracks. To go for a ??? vote on nyxnyxnyx. So I will say it, as you guys know I think nyxnyxnyx looks scummy. But how in hell would you go from a mitt vote to a nyx vote? it just doesn't makes sense, I feel like nyx is a direct downgrade to mitt in term of voting: they both don't say shit of any sort and make weird decision. Only that mitt looks completly crazy and nyx just looks lost. At this point in time I hightly doubt we will get more info out of a nyx lynch than the few that we get from a mitt lynch, so yeah, it is not the fact that he votes for nyx that bothers me, it's the fact that he unvotes mitt to go to nyx, and saying he switched because he wants more information, which is a direct contradiction with his vote.
We still have some time, Vonthin is under heavy fire and I hope he posts a good defense, july and onlywonderboy haven't say jack shit, nyx is still useless.
##Vote: istandwithmitt I explained my serial killer theory, even if I'm all up to kill scum, a killer going rampage in our town is one more kill at night. It is a role against town and lowering the amounts of deaths as soon as day 1 is too much tempting of an offer. And even if he isn't serial killer, he looks at least 70% mafia to me.
If you guys think the serial killer theory is dumb and you'd rather focus votes on people that will give info I will change my vote.
What I'd really like is to see: Vonthin making a defense, Istandwithmitt making a real defense. July answering to Seuss interogations and onlywonderboy's toughts. I don't necessarily agree, yes mitt's way of playing is extremely ballsy/annoying/not pro-town but playing that way as a SK would be risky and I feel like a non-risky pretending to be pro-town way of playing is the way to go. I might be wrong ofcourse but I think he is more of an annoying troll then a SK. I truly have the feeling he will flip town, there is just way too many people bandwagoning on him because he is such an easy target. Just leave him be for today, maybe he'll get modkilled or killed by a vigi. is it possible to vote for a modkill? onlywonderboy, you better start posting if you don't want this ending for you the same way it did in your first game. You are low on content, again and it really doesn't help your case.
-I honestly think he was just making a newb mistake and that he should have asked a coach or mod. You completely overreacted to nothing.
-I don't see how you think he was soft-claiming cop at all. You soft-claim cop by going really hard on your mafia check or defending your town check really hard. Being that there was no Night0, cop would have no checks at this point and so there would be no reason to soft claim Day1.
-I think it's pretty obvious why he's pointing it out here.
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On October 16 2013 18:57 SagaZ wrote: I guess there is some mafia in this vote participant, so the people here should be under some scrutiny. Aside from Seuss from this group, my strongest town read is Bereft. Even though Vonthin was a miss lynch, his reasoning looked strong and prevented the mitt super band wagon.
My strongest scum reads: nyx and onlywonderboy. I have said it and will repeat it, they give us absolutely nothing to work with and jump on the easy lynch train.
Still looks mafia but less than the 2 above: playerboy345, less than the others for the sole reason that he gave a bit more to work with. Again, what I really really hate about his posts is how hard he goes on E00e for what E00e said (which looked like an honest newby mistake to me). He says talking about blues is a big nono this early in the game (which is perfectly resonable) but then he proceed so damn hard on it that at this point he's been the one talking about it more than the rest. I also don't like the timing of his post, after Seuss brough some order to the town discussion by asking to focus on me and july, player comes in and repeat his grief on E00e. Looks a bit like he was trying to sidetrack the discussion to me. He still reads less scummy than the 2 above to me, honestly what I say about the timing might be absolutly nothing and just how his timezone works. My post looks dedicated to him because I think I already made my view on wonderboy and nyx in my earlier post but not really on him.
I think there is a good chance to be like 1 or 2 scums in the people that voted Vorthin. So from my perspective, I'd really like to hear nyxnyxnyx, onlywonderboy and player345. Because right now I'd feel comfortable going for either of those. Bereft's toughs would be good too, especially cause so far he has been helping the town I think.
And to end on a side note, how does everyone stands on mitt now? Cause I am now very fking confused...
~I'm a lot less certain of Bereft as town after Vonthin flipped town. Based on all his posts, he seems like an intelligent player which makes me skeptical of why he was willing to risk a miss-lynch on a potentially useful town versus a probably useless town. His reasons made sense, I just feel like my reasons for istandwithmitt were a much safer play that made more sense. You pointing out that he prevented the "istandwithmitt" bandwagon is a little ironic considering that the vote just became a "Vonthin" bandwagon that everyone jumped on instead.
~I actually agree with you that there are likely one, maybe even two mafia in the vote. However, unlike you, the only person I'm willing to write off at this point is the confirmed town Seuss.
onlywonderboy still hasn't contributed enough for me to get any sort of read on him.
I find your criticism of playerboy345 for tunneling E00e somewhat inconsistent. Yes, playerboy345 completely overreacted, but I think you're looking too much into it given your willingness to tunnel on nyxnyxnyx for his blind following of OdinOfPergo.
I was the first person to point suspicion onto nyxnyxnyx for his lap dog play towards OdinOfPergo and it made me highly suspicious of both of them despite what I believe to be OdinOfPergo's pro-town play this game. However, it isn't enough to commit to nyxnyxnyx being mafia as quickly as you seem willing to. This point, combined with your continued faith in Bereft makes me actually suspicious of a Bereft-SagaZ connection just as much as I am of a nyxnyxnyx-OdinOfPergo connection, if not more-so. I want to note it could be possible in either of these connections that there is just one mafia buddying-up to a town and it isn't necessary that if one of the partners in the pair is mafia, that the other need be either. However, these connections are definitely worth noting and looking into.
Regarding playerboy345 and E00e, I would like more information to go off of, but I am definitely more comfortable lite-reading E00e as town at this point and I'm unsure on whether playerboy345 is the possible 3rd mafia in one of the two pairs I just listed.
Another possibility for the 3rd mafia could be July617, however, I'm more comfortable with him as town at this point. If anyone else besides the confirmed town had said this first, I would be almost certain that July617 was mafia with the person who said it:On October 16 2013 07:46 Seuss wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2013 07:29 Bereft wrote: Seuss, if you can gather enough steam from town on this, fwiw I'd be willing to switch from Vonthin to July.
however in the event that you can't convince anyone, Sagaz I'd recommend you switch your vote to Vonthin because otherwise you are 100% throwing away your vote. If Vonthin flips Mafia we can read a lot into people's votes. If he flips town we can be pretty certain July isn't mafia, which will cease the abusing relationship between his head and his desk I am at fault for.
-I'm not confused about istandwithmitt, but I don't really know what to do with him now. Lynching a weak, non-contributing town seems like a perfectly safe Day 1 lynch, but after that you really need to raise the bar to targeting actual mafia rather than trimming the fat on town.
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On October 16 2013 22:11 Balla24 wrote: I also have a town read on E00, and that's probably my best town read. This guy has been solid in his reasoning and I like his plays in reaction to playerboy's call out. Very nice, IMO.
I do want to revisit the Playerboy -> E00 situation. Playerboy, how do you read that as a soft-claim? He was genuinely trying to start a discussion on when cop should come out because that's an easy way for scum to slip and for scum to give a town-like opinion on something (which is better than not saying anything at all). It's a common way to start some conversation on day1. The fact that you were so angry at the fact that he did that really makes me think you're trying to gain town cred for flipping out over some small mistake. Also I'd like to hear about why you think E00 saying "i'm not going to confirm or deny i'm cop" is bad as well. If he's a good townie he has to debunk your "soft-claiming talk" whether he is cop or he is not.
As far as nyx. ATM he is my highest scum read and I will push for him today as long as nothing changes during this nightphase/nightactions. Nyx, why did you think Vonthin was mafia? What specifically did you not like about his small defense (things he didn't mention etc etc)? Why was switching his vote to you the last nail in the coffin for you for him being scum?
~While I like your town read on E00e, my reasons are completely different as I mostly read his posts as naive (but genuine) town.
What I am noting however is that you in general seem to have the same reads as SagaZ and seem to be giving the same reasons SagaZ gave, which makes you a likely 3rd mafia in my hypothetical SagaZ-Bereft connection.
Those reads being: -you like E00e and dislike playerboy345 for his pressure on E00e. -you scum read hard on nyxnyxnyx
You didn't really say you town-read on Bereft, which would seal the deal for me, but saying nothing on them is mildly suspicious as well. What are your thoughts on Bereft and why?
I'd also like to hear Bereft's thoughts on SagaZ and Balla24 at this point.
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edit: Just got to his next post where he gives his reads on Bereft. I'd still like Bereft's thoughts on SagaZ and Balla24.
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On October 17 2013 01:00 istandwithmitt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 16 2013 08:48 GGTeMpLaR wrote: While I respect and relate to your judgment of istandwithmitt, I think if there's ever a day where we can afford to lynch the weakest town instead of a mafia, it's day 1. If he's mafia at this point, then all is well. If he's town, then I think it's better we get rid of him now rather than let him end up in the final 3 and remain a target of suspicion - in addition to the possibility that his seemingly arbitrary reads could end up being the final deciding vote on who is mafia or not. Hey this is a really scummy post. Can you guys tell me why?
Why don't you explain it because I thought it was the most pro-town post in the thread so far, which I continue to think after reading this latest post of yours being followed by a vote on me without any reasons whatsoever besides "I think it's scummy".
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On October 17 2013 02:42 istandwithmitt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 01:06 SagaZ wrote: God damnit mitt, we already went over this, this is not how it works. If you make an accusation you explain your reasoning behind it, you don't make us guess. If you have a problem with any post, point it out, it helps us, or me at least to understand how you think. Pls you dont need to curse. I just want you guys to try & look at things that are scummy rather than getting in big rants about how people don't post enough. ggtemplar is talking about how its a good thing to lynch someone you think is town (hint: it never is) & this is from someone who has been convinced I'm scummy all game. He then justifies that "if I am town" (hint: he has been saying that he thinks I'm scum all game) that I'm still a good lynch. Basically, he's pushing a lynch on someone a lot of people think is town & then preparing for when I flip town but justifying it as a good lynch. Basically, he's going to get a townie lynched but no worries, it was a good thing for a town! I think ggtemplar knows I'm town & is trying to hedge his position for when I flip town. Well, see ya.
When did I ever say I thought you were scum all game? I was initially suspicious of both you and SagaZ based on your one initial post and then several pages of silence.
When you made your reappearance, I was pretty convinced whether you were town or mafia, you were the safest lynch for the town because you were making poor contributions without any reasons behind them.
I'd disagree that it's never safe play to lynch a weak town and I gave my reasons for why lynching a horrendously weak town is safe play on Day 1.
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On October 17 2013 03:40 istandwithmitt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 02:56 Seuss wrote:On October 17 2013 02:42 istandwithmitt wrote:On October 17 2013 01:06 SagaZ wrote: God damnit mitt, we already went over this, this is not how it works. If you make an accusation you explain your reasoning behind it, you don't make us guess. If you have a problem with any post, point it out, it helps us, or me at least to understand how you think. Pls you dont need to curse. I just want you guys to try & look at things that are scummy rather than getting in big rants about how people don't post enough. ggtemplar is talking about how its a good thing to lynch someone you think is town (hint: it never is) & this is from someone who has been convinced I'm scummy all game. He then justifies that "if I am town" (hint: he has been saying that he thinks I'm scum all game) that I'm still a good lynch. Basically, he's pushing a lynch on someone a lot of people think is town & then preparing for when I flip town but justifying it as a good lynch. Basically, he's going to get a townie lynched but no worries, it was a good thing for a town! I think ggtemplar knows I'm town & is trying to hedge his position for when I flip town. Well, see ya. Question: GGTeMpLaR posted that in response to a post I made suggesting we vote for SagaZ or July617. If you think GGTeMpLaR was scum, do you think he was trying to deflect the vote away from other scum or do you think he was simply sowing discord? Maybe. There's no point in conjecturing a bunch of "what ifs." I think his line of thinking is really scummy & it's independent of July or SagaZ possible alignments. If he flips scum, it would be worth looking at but considering neither is in serious of danger of being lynched atm, I think it's just as likely that he might have just been deflecting off town onto a townie he's been pushing for a while.
This was actually a pro-town post with proper reasoning for your thoughts. More of this and I think town isn't in nearly as crappy of a position as I thought we would be in if you end up in the final 3.
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On October 17 2013 05:34 Seuss wrote: Also, GGTeMpLaR do us a favor and read all the posts, then respond. Watching you post like this is like watching someone reacting to the bombinb of Pearl Harbor as if it happened today.
I'll do that in the future.
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On October 17 2013 06:04 SagaZ wrote: So GGTemplar, you posted that you think I'm in some kind of scum pair with Bereft and you put that higher than the nyx-odin pair? That makes no sense, I gave my reason why I think Bereft is town. People that voted for the miss lynch are suspicious, there should be at least one mafia, possibly two. If I take myself and seuss from that group (I am explaining my toughs, so this is of course from my perspective) among those people we have Bereft, Nyxnyxnyx, Onlywonderboy and Player345. Are you honestly trying to say that you think that Bereft is more suspicious than Nyx at this point? Or more than Onlywonderboy? the 2 guys that haven't really said anything. More suspicious than player345? maybe you have a different point of view than mine and maybe you see things differently, but I highly doubt that there are 3 or more mafias in this vote group, so therefore, from my perspective Bereft looks town. Of course I am not going to sheep on him like nyx did with Odin... Just that I might be more inclined to roll with plans if they come from him. And before you twist my words, of course Seuss takes priority planning wise. I'd say that If Seuss is 100% town, for me Bereft looks like a 75%
On October 17 2013 06:04 SagaZ wrote: So GGTemplar, you posted that you think I'm in some kind of scum pair with Bereft and you put that higher than the nyx-odin pair? That makes no sense, I gave my reason why I think Bereft is town. People that voted for the miss lynch are suspicious, there should be at least one mafia, possibly two. If I take myself and seuss from that group (I am explaining my toughs, so this is of course from my perspective) among those people we have Bereft, Nyxnyxnyx, Onlywonderboy and Player345. Are you honestly trying to say that you think that Bereft is more suspicious than Nyx at this point? Or more than Onlywonderboy? the 2 guys that haven't really said anything. More suspicious than player345? maybe you have a different point of view than mine and maybe you see things differently, but I highly doubt that there are 3 or more mafias in this vote group, so therefore, from my perspective Bereft looks town. Of course I am not going to sheep on him like nyx did with Odin... Just that I might be more inclined to roll with plans if they come from him. And before you twist my words, of course Seuss takes priority planning wise. I'd say that If Seuss is 100% town, for me Bereft looks like a 75%
You know, I hadn't fully caught up to the thread when I made that post, in particular I hadn't read this yet:
On October 17 2013 03:42 Bereft wrote: I actually don't think nyx has a lot of explaining to do, as some of you have put it. it's not a strong read, but I peg him as town right now. all he's done is shown a lack of confidence + some major sheeping, but his voting patterns actually are what make me skeptical that he'd be mafia. I'll reread when I get home tonight, but off the top of my head, he (a) showed an easy willingness to hammer someone who ultimately turned out to be town (mafia would've known vonthin would flip green and that hammering him the way nyx did would put them in a very bad light) and (b) encouraged us not to switch votes at the last minute (reinforces point a). just some food for thought...
Which is a moderate defense of nyxnyxnyx. I'm currently trying to draw connections between players and this connection between Bereft defending nyxnyxnyx, nyxnyxnyx who is buddying up to OdinOfPergo, and OdinOfPergo who is suspicious of nyxnyxnyx is going to force me to rethink the lines I've drawn.
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I wasn't fond of a Bereft-nyxnyxnyx connection before but I have to consider it as a possibility now.
I think it will be best if I just wait for tonight's kill before I get lost in theorycrafting again as it will provide a lot of useful information about what lines should be drawn where.
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On October 17 2013 06:46 istandwithmitt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 17 2013 05:44 GGTeMpLaR wrote:On October 17 2013 02:42 istandwithmitt wrote:On October 17 2013 01:06 SagaZ wrote: God damnit mitt, we already went over this, this is not how it works. If you make an accusation you explain your reasoning behind it, you don't make us guess. If you have a problem with any post, point it out, it helps us, or me at least to understand how you think. Pls you dont need to curse. I just want you guys to try & look at things that are scummy rather than getting in big rants about how people don't post enough. ggtemplar is talking about how its a good thing to lynch someone you think is town (hint: it never is) & this is from someone who has been convinced I'm scummy all game. He then justifies that "if I am town" (hint: he has been saying that he thinks I'm scum all game) that I'm still a good lynch. Basically, he's pushing a lynch on someone a lot of people think is town & then preparing for when I flip town but justifying it as a good lynch. Basically, he's going to get a townie lynched but no worries, it was a good thing for a town! I think ggtemplar knows I'm town & is trying to hedge his position for when I flip town. Well, see ya. When did I ever say I thought you were scum all game? I was initially suspicious of both you and SagaZ based on your one initial post and then several pages of silence. When you made your reappearance, I was pretty convinced whether you were town or mafia, you were the safest lynch for the town because you were making poor contributions without any reasons behind them. I'd disagree that it's never safe play to lynch a weak town and I gave my reasons for why lynching a horrendously weak town is safe play on Day 1. Yeah, this is exactly what I'm talking about. If you look at his post history, almost all of his stuff is about how I'm scum until he started convincing whoever that I was a good lynch even if I was town. In this post he seems to disagree with his stance & says he doesn't care what alignment I am but that I should be lynched either way & then makes a justification for if I flip town. Basically, this dude is distancing himself more & more from his reads & setting up if/when I flip town. The fact that he keeps steering closer & closer to how it's good to lynch me if I'm town rather than why we should because I'm scum, makes it pretty evident that he knows what I'm going to flip & that it's town. For real, this guy should be lynched tomorrow. ggtemplar if you'd be so kind I'd like to know what your thoughts on playerboy345 is. Thanks in advance!
I didn't convince anyone you were a good lynch even as town.
You convinced everyone you were a good lynch when your 2nd-5th? posts were garbage. Fortunately for you, Bereft came in and redirected town onto someone else.
I like that you're adding more content to your post but you seriously need to go back and reread these posts because your information is wrong.
This was your second post after 4-5 pages of silence.
On October 15 2013 04:35 istandwithmitt wrote: ##vote: playerboy345
This guy is posting nothingness. Trying to get people to make calls while actually providing nothing wrt scumminess of players. You all can bandwagon this vote, no worries.
Well, see ya
Please reread pages 13 and 14
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430766¤tpage=13
You buried yourself with your lack of quality posts and non-existing reasons for your seemingly arbitrary reads.
It's another 4 pages after you haven't posted anything since your tirade besides voting for yourself and giving up that I posted this:
On October 16 2013 08:48 GGTeMpLaR wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2013 17:25 Seuss wrote:On October 15 2013 11:29 Bereft wrote: also lawl, adding July to that list, just read his post above. July, please give us some reads within the next 12 hours -- that should be enough time for you to "safely and calmly" get your reads together. We don't actually need every last poster giving a full list of reads. In fact, it's a fairly decent way for mafia members to look productive without actually contributing anything useful. The thread is also drawing very quiet, which is good news for the mafia, so I'm going to incite some discussion. At this point I believe istandwithmitt is just an absolutely terrible player/communicator. He's confrontational, dogmatic, egotistical, and generally a pain in the butt, but he's drawn way, way more negative attention to himself than makes sense for mafia. Bereft is right that we should be focusing on finding other targets right now. To that end, I believe the two most likely mafia players are SagaZ and July617. I'll present each case in turn. + Show Spoiler [SagaZ] +While he was the first player to post following the start of the game, he's been a sparse participant since. His first post immediately drew suspicion for a number of reasons. 1. Despite its word count it's actually very light on content. 2. The actual suggestions contained within are highly questionable. Observe: On October 14 2013 11:26 SagaZ wrote: As a disclaimer early, I think we should all agree on something. We are all newbies here, so if you fuck up or say something dumb, don't play the "oh sorry, I am new I didn't know". [/color]
[color=green]Seuss is our confirmed town, we should try to organize around him. For a day 1 lynch, I think lynching some1 innactive is the best way to go.[/color] Having innactive players around just give mafia the opportunity to sit back and do nothing while town runs around screaming at each other. So give information about yourself if you can, so that others will be able to read you easy.
My stance this early is easy: I will vote for people that post nothing worthy or nothing at all, unless some1 slips. I am also more likely to vote for people that say suspicious stuff and then say "sorry I didn't know I am new" SagaZ spends both the first and last paragraphs primarily rambling about how people shouldn't play the newbie card. If all he really wanted to do was encourage newbies to post, as he later claimed, he could easily have done so with a far more positive tone. He doesn't sound like he's encouraging newbies as much as discouraging them. While he does make two seemingly reasonable suggestions, they are obvious and ultimately counter-productive. As the sole confirmed townie in the game, my lifespan is likely to be short. Rallying around me exclusively would simply set the town up for trouble upon my inevitable death. Similarly, lynching players who'll simply be modkilled does nothing for the town either. So SagaZ' first post discouraged activity and made no useful suggestions. That's enough to arouse suspicion, but not to conclude he is mafia. That brings us to his second post: On October 14 2013 20:11 SagaZ wrote: Of course I meant lurker lynch, afkers will get modkilled after all. If one guy is not saying anything in the thread or very little, but still turn out to vote for people without giving reasoning... that would be very scum telling to me. I guess it is fairly obvious to everyone, but pointing it out will make them talk whether they want it or not, and that gives information. I took the opportunity of the first post to basically say "game started, don't hide behind your inexperience and post".
For town to win we need 2 thing: - Get everyone active - Organize around our confirmed towny Seuss
@nyxnyxnyx: Care to explain why you trust Odin? Him being so hyper posty makes me nervous but he actually present points for us to discuss on, which creates discussion and is therefore good for town. It is weird to me at least that you come in, decide to side with odin even thought we have a confirmed townie. In this post he claims he meant "lurker" when he said "inactive". However, in his first post he clearly stated that his potential vote targets included those who posted "nothing at all". SagaZ is backpedaling here, and making it seem reasonable by repeating the reasoning that undermined his previous position. He also very carefully drops his excuse for the weird newbie-discouraging rambling at the end of an unrelated paragraph, burying it. "Getting everyone active" is an important step for towns looking to win, but SagaZ doesn't actually have any suggestions on how to do that, and doesn't participate enough himself. He again says everyone should organize around me, also without suggesting how or acknowledging the obvious flaw in the strategy (e.g. I'm a dead man walking). Finally, he ends the post promoting discord. While nyxnyxnyx' decision to trust Odin could have used some additional vetting, at that point Odin was at the nexus of a fairly chaotic argument, and rallying behind his "let's randomly pick someone and put them in the hotseat to get information flowing" idea would have killed a lot of the useless chatter while promoting helpful discussion. Questioning nyxnyxnyx at this point only served to perpetuate the pointless debate, and promote distrust. SagaZ third post was entirely inconsequential, and above analysis. His fourth post at least pretended to have substance: On October 15 2013 05:02 SagaZ wrote: First impressions: going into this I was feeling most uncomfortable with nyxnyxnyx, blindly following some1 sounds like a pretty bad idea for a town, and especially stating it in the thread sounds more to me like he was trying to get onto OdinOfPergo's good side. And the I read istandwithmitt's post and I'm like wtf. He voted for me at the beginning and I thought it was alright, aggressive play-style pointing fingers early to get some heat and get the discussion going, but then instead of making use of it he just go silent. And now this switcharoo vote with no explanation and abrasive behavior?
There are a lot of words in this post, but it essentially says nothing. The entire latter half is a rehash of what everyone else had already said about istandwithmitt. The former half mostly repeats his previous misgivings about nyxnyxnyx' decision, adding an extra touch of distrust of both nyx and Odin. No progress towards anything happens over the course of these paragraphs. Finally, there's SagaZ latest post: On October 15 2013 05:20 SagaZ wrote: I'd like to hear what playerboy345 has to say to Istandwithmitt's accusations; just complete the weird triangle between them 2 and E00e. At this point debating with istandwithmitt was utterly pointless, whoever was doing it. I had said as much earlier. Promoting a useless discussion is never helpful to the town. It is for these reasons that I believe SagaZ has a very high probability of being mafia, and is worthy of a lynching. + Show Spoiler [July617] +July has posted 6 times since the game began (I'm excluding his edit explanation and apology), and he's made a solid point once. Look for yourself: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=430766&user=July617The only useful contribution he's made was his response to Odin's confusing RNG plan. At the time Odin's confusing manner of communicating made it seem like the plan was to randomly select someone, lynch them, and call it a day. That ultimately wasn't what Odin was aiming for, but at the time it seemed that way and if July hadn't responded as he did someone else would have. Which brings us to his other 5 posts. They all say essentially the same thing, "I don't want to lynch anyone yet, let's wait and talk more." If everyone was jumping to conclusions in the first four hours istandwithmitt style that might have been fine, but with practically half our time spent he's still waiting for a sign from God (or is it the Godfather?). The only player who has contributed less is Balla24, who hasn't posted at all. Keeping his head this low, and trying to keep people deferring the lynching decision as long as possible, makes it a high probability that July617 is mafia. Until such time as either or both of these individuals has a convincing defense established, it's my preference that we lynch one of them over istandwithmitt, much as it pains me. While I respect and relate to your judgment of istandwithmitt, I think if there's ever a day where we can afford to lynch the weakest town instead of a mafia, it's day 1. If he's mafia at this point, then all is well. If he's town, then I think it's better we get rid of him now rather than let him end up in the final 3 and remain a target of suspicion - in addition to the possibility that his seemingly arbitrary reads could end up being the final deciding vote on who is mafia or not.
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I found playerboy345's initial reaction to E00e over the top (as I've stated many times), and found his reasons for thinking E00e was soft-claiming to be weak.
But as the pages went on, many people seemed to get stuck on his play here and wouldn't move past it (and actually bandwagon restated my initial thoughts on the matter, constantly bringing up his reasons for thinking the soft-claim was weak), which I found suspicious because while playerboy345's actions towards E00e were suspicious, I didn't find them damning him as a mafia, and found the continued restating of what I had already said to be fluff.
Right now I have a light read on playerboy345 as mafia, but he would be my 3rd mafia pick at the moment behind other stronger connections I have already noted as possibilities. Depending on who dies tonight though, he actually might be the safest kill if I can see him being the 3rd mafia in multiple hypothetical scenarios.
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istandwithmitt you seem to be getting at the notion that you think playerboy345 and myself are mafia together.
Who do you think is the 3rd mafia with us and why?
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On October 17 2013 13:17 Seuss wrote: All that said, nyxnyxnyx might have made a next level play. Who'd suspect the guy who blindly followed Odin to murder him!
I want to think that this isn't the case because it just seems like it's too risky a play to make, but I'm not certain.
In light of the night's kills of confirmed town, my thoughts of OdinOfPergo being in mafia connections with nyxnyxnyx make little sense, however I still think it's possible that nyxnyxnyx was trying to buddy up to him. However, when OdinOfPergo made it clear he wasn't going to be easily pocketed and targeted suspicion on nyxnyxnyx, he could have become more of a liability than an asset. At this point, I think there is a lot of suspicion on nyxnyxnyx, and rightly so. However, I wouldn't immediately write him off as a SK without looking at his connections and reads, especially in the early game.
Early on in the first 6 pages, nyxnyxnyx was the target of suspicion from SagaZ. He was defended by Seuss, our confirmed town. Further, nyxnyxnyx jumped onto the train to vote istandwithmitt, even though he noted he didn't think istandwithmitt was mafia.
When Bereft questioned his vote here, he buddy'd up to OdinOfPergo, which resulted in a quick vote on nyxnyxnyx from Vonthin. nyxnyxnyx immediately responded by swapping his vote onto Vonthin. E00e responded by voting on nyxnyxnyx and placed secondary scum reads on onlywonderboy as well. (I think it wouldn't be too far out there if when a mafia pinged two people like this early on, the hard ping would go on a town and the soft ping on a mafia, noting a possible E00e-onlywonderboy connection).
A page later SagaZ chimes in that he thinks both nyxnyxnyx and Vonthin both appear scummy, in addition to elaborating on a detailed "serial killer theory" targeted at istandwithmitt. (which actually makes me want to think SagaZ a likely candidate for Serial Killer, although analyzing his connections would be important before we go down that road similar to what I am trying to do with nyxnyxnyx right now).
On page 18, we see activity from Balla24 rejecting a vote on July617/Vonthin and targeting nyxnyxnyx instead - and Seuss pinged this action for lacking in detail (given that we know Vonthin is town now, this could indicate a Balla24/July617 connection).
nyxnyxnyx posts again on page 19 after a long silence:
On October 16 2013 10:32 nyxnyxnyx wrote: Keep vote on Vonthin, we're voting againt each other. If he flips mafia you can work with that info, if he's town I'll have to make a new case for myself
OdinOfPergo pings him as suspicious (noting that it's possible this is where he believed OdinOfPergo was becoming a liability who couldn't be pocketed or buddy'd up to).
And page 20, we get this gem of either extremely poor town play, or suspicious behavior:
On October 16 2013 23:06 nyxnyxnyx wrote: 1. i wanted to go with whatever odin was going for. i have explained why in previous post. that was istandwithmitt 2. i put up the vote since i was gona sleep in a bit (vote would close at ~10am next morning, might not wake up before then) 3. people complained about my blind voting because i expressed that i personally did not think istandwithmitt was mafia (and i still think so). vonthin changed his vote to me on that feeling, and i thought well fuck you im voting you bitch 4. that is all
Further pings against nyxnyxnyx are made by SagaZ/OdinOfPero/Balla24/Seuss on page 20.
And with that, I'm going to summarize my thoughts so far because I think unless you think nyxnyxnyx is mafia with myself (who pinged him early on, then backed off and grew more suspicious of everyone else going so hard on him), he probably isn't mafia. It's possible one of the people going hard on him in this look-back is his mafia partner bus-ing him, but I think it's much more likely at this point that either he's acting alone as a Serial Killer or a misguided/unlucky town.
These are my comprehensive thoughts on nyxnyxnyx. More coming soon.
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On October 18 2013 02:08 Seuss wrote:- Bereft is clearly town, and one with a power role. Unfortunately, Bereft is a priority kill for the mafia now.
- istandwithmitt is also clearly town. I understand GGTeMpLaR's reservations, but I still believe his day 1 play was too erratic and attention-grabbing for him to be anything other than town. As a bonus, he's actually done pretty well since.
- July617 is another town. He voted for istandwithmitt just as Bereft and I started pushing to vote for Vonthin. This seemed like a scummy play attempting to deflect votes from Vonthin at the time. If July617 was mafia there'd be no reason for him to draw that kind of attention to himself.
- onlywonderboy is our penultimate town. While he hasn't posted as much as I'd like, every single one of his posts has been on point, succinct, and helpful.
- Obviously, I'm the final town. If you think I'm really scum you should run into your panic room and put on a tinfoil hat because Big Brother is watching you.
I think the only individual on this list I'm fully sold on at this point is Bereft. Even though I was growing suspicious of him at the end of Day 1 and it's possible he is scum who just faked getting Roleblock'd, the odds are not worth considering at this point when there's much better lynches and it's much more likely that he's a town at this point.
I'm not fully sold on istandwithmitt as town. I think it's likely if he was mafia, given how poorly he was playing, his mafia would have been more than willing to throw him under the bus at that point. There's a slight possibility of him as a Serial Killer at this point, but I'd say nyxnyxnyx is a much more likely choice.
That being said, I've liked July617 and onlywonderboy as probable town the entire game - granted the lack of quantity of their posting and reads makes me skeptical to consider them hard town reads.
Regarding onlywonderboy, I noted in my previous post a possible weak connection between onlywonderboy and E00e. Now, Balla24's most recent post throws himself and onlywonderboy together in a town circle with you, which creates a Balla24-onlywonderboy connection:
On October 18 2013 02:42 Balla24 wrote: I would put onlywonderboy in a circle with me you bereft. I get a good feeling from him. He's playing very similarly to last game where he got lynched for it. Bereft might not be willing to let him slide for it again but I am. I think he would change a bit if he was scum.
At this point, it's worth going back to the early game and looking for any Balla24-onlywonderboy interactions or lack-there-of. They don't interact at all until page 20 where Balla24 calls onlywonderboy quiet and they don't give any reads on each other.
Balla24 then directly asks onlywonderboy of his thoughts on E00e/playerboy345 and onlywonderboy responds by placing heavy suspicion on playerboy345:
On October 17 2013 02:56 onlywonderboy wrote: playerboy definitely seemed to overreact to that whole situation. Much like you I didn't read e00s post as a soft claim. I want to hear playerboy's reasoning as to why he read it as a soft claim. Simply bringing up a role doesn't mean you're soft claiming it. playerboy also seems to be lurking more than he did last game. Last game despite being mafia he was one of the first people to speak up and was active making a lot of people believe he was town (much like Odin this game). Something to explore but a little early to be making scum claims
Also, speaking of odin, I want to be careful we don't fall into the same trap we did last game. I was suspicious of playerboy early last game but sat on it because I didn't want to make enemies. I don't want to make the same mistake again. He's pushing july and nyx hard, which look goods on paper, but if either of them end up turning town if we lynch them, I think that looks bad for odin.
I think if there is a E00e/onlywonderboy/Balla24 mafia circle at this point, this post says a lot. He would clearly know July617 and nyxnyxnyx are town at this point and that if one of them flips town, him having said this could be used as an argument against playerboy345 in the next round. If nyxnyxnyx actually is the serial killer, he would still read him as town this game and nyxnyxnyx killing playerboy345 could have unintentionally thwarted his next-day preparations for suspicion on playerboy345.
For the rest of Day 1, onlywonderboy and Balla24 don't touch each other. At this point, going back and looking for more connections between E00e-onlywonderboy and E00e-Balla24 could provide useful information that could either affirm or deny my suspicions of this trio as a likely mafia circle.
Granted, I still need to analyze SagaZ and July617 as well at this point. To be continued.
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Oh and I missed this gem which is extremely relevant to my latest E00e/Balla24/onlywonderboy post.
On October 18 2013 02:29 Balla24 wrote: On E00e. I was the first one to call him out on the "cop claim debacle" after playerboy's death. If you think he's scum then I'm not scum with him and vice versa. If it wasn't for him, playerboy might not have gotten shot last night (I do have some part to play in this, but by the time i got back I think the damage was already done) and we might have a check.
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