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I've been waiting for particular posts from Aquanim and Chromatically, which they have now made.
That's a pretty flimsy case that Chrom has made against me. There is no reason to think that I would make a casual opening post when by the time I joined the game there were already five other casual opening posts. I think the game strategy stuff (regarding NN) was as good a discussion as any as it is actually important to the game.
Up until this point I have in no way cared as to whether or not I look scummy, and since I got my scum read from Aquanim's first post it made sense for me to wait until there was a case made against someone before I posted this. It's about time that the scum try to get a wagon rolling and I am happy enough for that wagon to be on me, so I will even help scum Chromatically by ensuring that scum Aquanim also votes for me. Here is my take on the important parts of day 1 so far:
Hurricane is the first to discuss the NN claiming.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 11:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Ugh, let's avoid the 'should we lynch lurkers talk' shall we?
I'm gonna go ahead and post the play I had written earlier this week analyzing this game from a pro-town perspective. If any of my analysis is off-base, please jump in and steer me back on track.
Pre-written segment starts now:
Alright, chums. First let me state that in NO WAY is the following message a call for a mass claim. If you are the Parity Cop (assuming you even exist), DO NOT SAY SO. In fact, if you're our town's parity cop, it's probably better if you appear to ignore what I'm about to say completely. Same goes for Trackers and Watchers. DO NOT CLAIM. But read carefully, because you are a big part of whether we succeed or fail (whether we follow my plan or not).
Now everyone, pay attention: Looking over the roles, the extremely juicy pro-town potential jumped right off the page at me, as I hope it did to many of you. Trackers can tell us if a person visits someone. Pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Watcher, who can pick a person and sees all who visit them. Obviously, this means we can try to guess the guy who's going to be mafia-killed, and we have a couple shots at seeing if he either gets visited, or manage to Track the mafia member who happens to be tagged to do the deed. Not great odds on either, but still better than nothing.
My plan utilizes each role to their maximum potential. Because we are not guaranteed to have a Tracker, Watcher, or even a Parity Cop, it's important that for the roles we DO get, we use them efficiently. The Watcher needs to guess the target they think will be mafia-killed tonight. This is up to your judgement, but I'll make a recommendation later today.
The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town.
I can elaborate further, but I feel like you can all piece together whatever holes are out there without me holding your hand even further. This is an extremely pro-town set-up (assuming there aren't a bunch of red herrings in which case, Hi I'm sponge, and I just gave you all the book on me.) and I'd like to move fast before mafia can organize their thoughts in their private little forum. If we move fast, and force independent action, they lose one of their many advantages.
I wont go into my game theory here but can do in another post if people request, however I absolutely believe that the NN declaring is something that the scum would want. There were several people that disagreed with NN claiming, but importantly no one declared Hurricane to be especially scummy for making the post.
Aquanim then makes a first post that is clever scum. + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:Quoted Player List for reference:We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow. You wound me. Regarding claimsI'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scumCurrent scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up. What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread? Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically
Aquanim hopes that he can get a few town to agree that the NN should out themselves. Then his scumbuddies can also agree and the NN might claim, giving an advantage to the scum team. Since Hurricane did not get a hard time, Aquanim does not think that he will be lynched for being the first to make the suggestion. Aquanim is fairly sure that when the time comes he can rely on Hurricanes vote for NN to claim, so he really only needs two more town votes, which makes it worth a try.
Aqua's scumbuddy, Chromatically, has already said that the NN claiming is a bad idea. Aqua sees a chance to make a good play here and throws a weak vote on Chromatically. It is still early in the day and there is little chance of a wagon forming. Aqua never intends to leave his vote on Chromatically, but is just creating some distance from him so that it wont look suspicious if Chromatically should change his mind about the NN claim. Ofcourse there is the added bonus that if Chromatically should later flip scum then Aqua can refer to his very first post and claim to be confirmed town.
Next, FirmTofu defends my weak read on him. + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 13:34 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 13:22 hzflank wrote:On June 24 2013 13:00 Chromatically wrote: hz, do you have any scumreads? At the moment I am looking at FirmTofu. His chain of attack and defense looks like: Attack Chromatically Attack Xzavier Attack Hurricane Attack Spicy Defend Hurricane Defend Xzavier Attack Spicy For some reason the defenses seem a little out of place to me, especially the defense on Xzavier. On the other hand I believe Hurricane to be town as if he were scum then he is very brave to make the first post that he did. I am also very aware that I made an slightly extended attack on Spicy, who now seems to be FirmTofu's main target. I am wondering if he thinks Spicy is a good lynch target because he can count on my vote.(1) He has also said twice that we should only use information from this game and not previous games. I think town should have access to as much information as possible in order to lynch scum. Therefore to me, FirmTofu is currently the scummiest player.(2) You are taking an extremely simplified approach to analyze my actions. I am not "attacking" or "defending" anyone. I am stating my opinions on how various people are behaving. If you can't distinguish between the two, we have a serious problem here. You can't say that my "defenses" are out of place without even looking at the context of the situation. Read my quote, see if it makes sense to you, and form an opinion based on that. Furthermore, this post is as scummy as scummy gets. You state that you can side with me as I pursue a lynch on Spicy(see 1), but you also consider me to be the scummiest player(see 2). How are these two chain of thoughts compatible? . The important part about his defence is where he misinterprets my badly written line regarding voting for Spicy. This is my fault as I should have been less ambiguous with my wording, but I hope most people can see what I actually meant. My mistake here makes me a prime target for the scum wagon as there is a reasonable chance that FirmTofu will get on board.
By this point I suspect that either Aqua or Chromatically might put their vote on me, but I cannot say so prematurely, especially since Aqua still has his vote on Chrom. After a little consideration I decide to lurk for a while, as I wanted Chrom to make a post of some sort before I made this claim.
Next we have:
On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote: @FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically?
So right after Aqua realised my above mistake with Firm, he asks Firm for his read on Chrom (who aqua still has his vote on). He is either looking for Firm to give him a good reason to think Chrom is town, or he is looking for Firm to give a scum read on me, or both. Either way, Firm is the most likely town to get onto my wagon at this point, so it is good setup.
Here we have Aqua ask Firm again for their opinion on his case on Chromatically. + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote: I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.
Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.
Event: NN roleclaims Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.
Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.
Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.
If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum. First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly.Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote:On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote: I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.
Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.
Event: NN roleclaims Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.
Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.
Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.
If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum. I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please.
Remember that this was the case that Aqua put forth in his very first post of the game. It was not a strong case and he knew it would never stand, so it was a good way to both give people a town read on his scumbuddy and also create some distance within the scum team. Firm responds that he thinks Chrom is town, which is exactly what Aqua wanted and why he asked him twice. Aqua has now gotten Firm (the person he thinks he can get to vote for me) to say that the scumbuddy that Aqua has his vote on (Chrom) is town. Well played Aqua.
Shorlty after, Aqua posts this + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 16:48 FirmTofu wrote:As for Chromatically... Your case is extremely weak. On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:Regarding scumCurrent scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up. What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread? Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Addressing your point 1), you are going off a bad feeling. Feelings don't cut it for me. I need evidence to make a move. I suppose that's a fair enough position to hold. I've personally found that my reads based on 'feelings' are often more accurate than those where I carefully assemble 'evidence'. This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII. Show nested quote + Addressing point 2), it seems quite town to me because it's forcing lurkers to talk. Talking is good for town, so I see this move as something a townie would do.
Asking questions is a town-y kind of thing to do, I agree. However, in my mind it is only significantly town-y when there is an actual plan behind those questions. By comparison, Chromatic was asking pretty generic questions without any real point or follow-up. Asking other people for their reads while having shared none of his own does not sit well with me. Show nested quote + There are a few other things that make me think Chromatically is town. He was the first person to point out the foolish aspects of Hurricane's poorly thought-out claim. What incentive would mafia have to steer town in the right direction?
Pointing out that some plan or another is stupid before anyone else does is a really cheap way of accumulating town-cred without committing to anything. Someone was going to shoot that plan down either way, so a scum player would have nothing to gain from not shooting it down. All this being said, I think that what he's done so far could plausibly be explained by a town mentality as well as a scum one. If he comes back tomorrow and starts playing a good town-game I'll be looking to lynch somebody else. For the meantime, though, my vote and intention stays.
There he gets in that his read on Chrom is based on feelings rather than evidence. He is telling us that there is no good reason to suspect Chrom while he still has his vote on Chrom. He closed by saying that if Chrom starts to play a good town game then he will move his vote to someone else, which in this case will be the person that Chrom votes for because they are scumbuddies.
Here Aqua mocks Firm for voting due to inactivity because part of their plan was that Firm would vote for me, and he wants to make sure that Firm will move his vote. + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 19:35 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 18:55 fyfy wrote: I don't know why I'm being voted day 1 when I haven't posted anything yet, I'm sure this kind of behaviour is exactly what the scum wants us to do. I'm sorry if there's no meta on me cause this is my first game and I would like to have my first game where I am not dead the first day. I can honestly assure everyone that I am town and killing me is a bad idea.
EDIT: I know I sound scummy but I guess that's what you're all going to have :/ You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious. I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours.
Chromatically gets back online and makes this post: + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:Quoted Player List for reference:We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow. You wound me. Regarding claimsI'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scumCurrent scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up. What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread? Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells. Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it. If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them?Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason?You also said: Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:
This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII.
Oh, this feels more like the scum Chromatic from XXXI? I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and Nns.
I take that as: 'Okay Aqua, time to unvote me now because I am going to try to start a wagon on someone else and it would not look as good for you to move your vote directly from me to them'.
Surprise surprise, in the very next post Aqua unvotes Chrom, which we all knew would happen after reading Aqua's very first post in this game (where he voted for Chrom). The most important line in this post by Aqua is: 'Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you', because that is him paving the way for Chrom to begin the mis-lynch attempt.
And then finally Chrom makes a case against me and votes.
Now, it would be easier for me to vote if I had an individual scum read, but since I am fairly confident that both Aqua and Chrom are scum, I am going to vote for Chrom because I think doing so will force Aqua to take a very strong stance one way or the other. Chrom already has his vote on me, so if I vote Aqua then Chrom does not need to make a decision and can just leave his vote where it is.
##Vote: Chromatically
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On June 25 2013 03:17 FirmTofu wrote:Just finished reading the thread. Thank you, hzflank. You are my hero. + Show Spoiler +On June 25 2013 02:53 hzflank wrote:I've been waiting for particular posts from Aquanim and Chromatically, which they have now made. That's a pretty flimsy case that Chrom has made against me. There is no reason to think that I would make a casual opening post when by the time I joined the game there were already five other casual opening posts. I think the game strategy stuff (regarding NN) was as good a discussion as any as it is actually important to the game. Up until this point I have in no way cared as to whether or not I look scummy, and since I got my scum read from Aquanim's first post it made sense for me to wait until there was a case made against someone before I posted this. It's about time that the scum try to get a wagon rolling and I am happy enough for that wagon to be on me, so I will even help scum Chromatically by ensuring that scum Aquanim also votes for me. Here is my take on the important parts of day 1 so far: Hurricane is the first to discuss the NN claiming. + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 11:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Ugh, let's avoid the 'should we lynch lurkers talk' shall we?
I'm gonna go ahead and post the play I had written earlier this week analyzing this game from a pro-town perspective. If any of my analysis is off-base, please jump in and steer me back on track.
Pre-written segment starts now:
Alright, chums. First let me state that in NO WAY is the following message a call for a mass claim. If you are the Parity Cop (assuming you even exist), DO NOT SAY SO. In fact, if you're our town's parity cop, it's probably better if you appear to ignore what I'm about to say completely. Same goes for Trackers and Watchers. DO NOT CLAIM. But read carefully, because you are a big part of whether we succeed or fail (whether we follow my plan or not).
Now everyone, pay attention: Looking over the roles, the extremely juicy pro-town potential jumped right off the page at me, as I hope it did to many of you. Trackers can tell us if a person visits someone. Pretty good, but not nearly as good as the Watcher, who can pick a person and sees all who visit them. Obviously, this means we can try to guess the guy who's going to be mafia-killed, and we have a couple shots at seeing if he either gets visited, or manage to Track the mafia member who happens to be tagged to do the deed. Not great odds on either, but still better than nothing.
My plan utilizes each role to their maximum potential. Because we are not guaranteed to have a Tracker, Watcher, or even a Parity Cop, it's important that for the roles we DO get, we use them efficiently. The Watcher needs to guess the target they think will be mafia-killed tonight. This is up to your judgement, but I'll make a recommendation later today.
The fun part comes with the Tracker and the Nosy Neighbor (and by extension Parity Cop). The Tracker should secretly track the Nosy Neighbor. AGAIN, MR. OR MRS. TRACKER: DO NOT CLAIM NOW. If we have a Nosy Neighbor, they should claim IMMEDIATELY. Once the Tracker can confirm that the Nosy Neighbor is in fact moving around at night, but not visiting the person who got Mafia-killed, WE CAN ESTABLISH HIM AS TOWN. This is a big deal. The Parity Cop can then tag the confirmed Nosy Neighbor as Town and start measuring up suspects against them. If he gets a 'Different' claim, the other person is Scum. If he gets 'Same', they are town.
I can elaborate further, but I feel like you can all piece together whatever holes are out there without me holding your hand even further. This is an extremely pro-town set-up (assuming there aren't a bunch of red herrings in which case, Hi I'm sponge, and I just gave you all the book on me.) and I'd like to move fast before mafia can organize their thoughts in their private little forum. If we move fast, and force independent action, they lose one of their many advantages. I wont go into my game theory here but can do in another post if people request, however I absolutely believe that the NN declaring is something that the scum would want. There were several people that disagreed with NN claiming, but importantly no one declared Hurricane to be especially scummy for making the post. Aquanim then makes a first post that is clever scum. + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:Quoted Player List for reference:We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow. You wound me. Regarding claimsI'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scumCurrent scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up. What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread? Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Aquanim hopes that he can get a few town to agree that the NN should out themselves. Then his scumbuddies can also agree and the NN might claim, giving an advantage to the scum team. Since Hurricane did not get a hard time, Aquanim does not think that he will be lynched for being the first to make the suggestion. Aquanim is fairly sure that when the time comes he can rely on Hurricanes vote for NN to claim, so he really only needs two more town votes, which makes it worth a try. Aqua's scumbuddy, Chromatically, has already said that the NN claiming is a bad idea. Aqua sees a chance to make a good play here and throws a weak vote on Chromatically. It is still early in the day and there is little chance of a wagon forming. Aqua never intends to leave his vote on Chromatically, but is just creating some distance from him so that it wont look suspicious if Chromatically should change his mind about the NN claim. Ofcourse there is the added bonus that if Chromatically should later flip scum then Aqua can refer to his very first post and claim to be confirmed town. Next, FirmTofu defends my weak read on him. + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 13:34 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 13:22 hzflank wrote:On June 24 2013 13:00 Chromatically wrote: hz, do you have any scumreads? At the moment I am looking at FirmTofu. His chain of attack and defense looks like: Attack Chromatically Attack Xzavier Attack Hurricane Attack Spicy Defend Hurricane Defend Xzavier Attack Spicy For some reason the defenses seem a little out of place to me, especially the defense on Xzavier. On the other hand I believe Hurricane to be town as if he were scum then he is very brave to make the first post that he did. I am also very aware that I made an slightly extended attack on Spicy, who now seems to be FirmTofu's main target. I am wondering if he thinks Spicy is a good lynch target because he can count on my vote.(1) He has also said twice that we should only use information from this game and not previous games. I think town should have access to as much information as possible in order to lynch scum. Therefore to me, FirmTofu is currently the scummiest player.(2) You are taking an extremely simplified approach to analyze my actions. I am not "attacking" or "defending" anyone. I am stating my opinions on how various people are behaving. If you can't distinguish between the two, we have a serious problem here. You can't say that my "defenses" are out of place without even looking at the context of the situation. Read my quote, see if it makes sense to you, and form an opinion based on that. Furthermore, this post is as scummy as scummy gets. You state that you can side with me as I pursue a lynch on Spicy(see 1), but you also consider me to be the scummiest player(see 2). How are these two chain of thoughts compatible? . The important part about his defence is where he misinterprets my badly written line regarding voting for Spicy. This is my fault as I should have been less ambiguous with my wording, but I hope most people can see what I actually meant. My mistake here makes me a prime target for the scum wagon as there is a reasonable chance that FirmTofu will get on board. By this point I suspect that either Aqua or Chromatically might put their vote on me, but I cannot say so prematurely, especially since Aqua still has his vote on Chrom. After a little consideration I decide to lurk for a while, as I wanted Chrom to make a post of some sort before I made this claim. Next we have: Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote: @FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically? So right after Aqua realised my above mistake with Firm, he asks Firm for his read on Chrom (who aqua still has his vote on). He is either looking for Firm to give him a good reason to think Chrom is town, or he is looking for Firm to give a scum read on me, or both. Either way, Firm is the most likely town to get onto my wagon at this point, so it is good setup. Here we have Aqua ask Firm again for their opinion on his case on Chromatically. + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote: I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.
Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.
Event: NN roleclaims Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.
Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.
Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.
If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum. First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly.Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote:On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote: I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.
Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.
Event: NN roleclaims Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.
Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.
Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.
If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum. I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. Remember that this was the case that Aqua put forth in his very first post of the game. It was not a strong case and he knew it would never stand, so it was a good way to both give people a town read on his scumbuddy and also create some distance within the scum team. Firm responds that he thinks Chrom is town, which is exactly what Aqua wanted and why he asked him twice. Aqua has now gotten Firm (the person he thinks he can get to vote for me) to say that the scumbuddy that Aqua has his vote on (Chrom) is town. Well played Aqua. Shorlty after, Aqua posts this + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 16:48 FirmTofu wrote:As for Chromatically... Your case is extremely weak. On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:Regarding scumCurrent scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up. What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread? Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Addressing your point 1), you are going off a bad feeling. Feelings don't cut it for me. I need evidence to make a move. I suppose that's a fair enough position to hold. I've personally found that my reads based on 'feelings' are often more accurate than those where I carefully assemble 'evidence'. This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII. Show nested quote + Addressing point 2), it seems quite town to me because it's forcing lurkers to talk. Talking is good for town, so I see this move as something a townie would do.
Asking questions is a town-y kind of thing to do, I agree. However, in my mind it is only significantly town-y when there is an actual plan behind those questions. By comparison, Chromatic was asking pretty generic questions without any real point or follow-up. Asking other people for their reads while having shared none of his own does not sit well with me. Show nested quote + There are a few other things that make me think Chromatically is town. He was the first person to point out the foolish aspects of Hurricane's poorly thought-out claim. What incentive would mafia have to steer town in the right direction?
Pointing out that some plan or another is stupid before anyone else does is a really cheap way of accumulating town-cred without committing to anything. Someone was going to shoot that plan down either way, so a scum player would have nothing to gain from not shooting it down. All this being said, I think that what he's done so far could plausibly be explained by a town mentality as well as a scum one. If he comes back tomorrow and starts playing a good town-game I'll be looking to lynch somebody else. For the meantime, though, my vote and intention stays. There he gets in that his read on Chrom is based on feelings rather than evidence. He is telling us that there is no good reason to suspect Chrom while he still has his vote on Chrom. He closed by saying that if Chrom starts to play a good town game then he will move his vote to someone else, which in this case will be the person that Chrom votes for because they are scumbuddies. Here Aqua mocks Firm for voting due to inactivity because part of their plan was that Firm would vote for me, and he wants to make sure that Firm will move his vote. + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 19:35 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 18:55 fyfy wrote: I don't know why I'm being voted day 1 when I haven't posted anything yet, I'm sure this kind of behaviour is exactly what the scum wants us to do. I'm sorry if there's no meta on me cause this is my first game and I would like to have my first game where I am not dead the first day. I can honestly assure everyone that I am town and killing me is a bad idea.
EDIT: I know I sound scummy but I guess that's what you're all going to have :/ You're being voted because FirmTofu wasn't man enough to put his vote on somebody he thought would talk back. Don't worry about it, just read the thread and let us know who you think is suspicious. I'd appreciate hearing your thoughts on what's happened in the game so far sometime in the next few hours. Chromatically gets back online and makes this post: + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote:Quoted Player List for reference:We still have yet to hear from Onegu, fyfy, Alakaslam, and LoneMeow. You wound me. Regarding claimsI'm of the opinion that the Nosy Neighbour/Alpha 5 should claim now. This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. If we establish that a Nosy Neighbour should claim now, anyone claiming it later is caught scum. Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. No other power roles should claim, that would be daft. (However, scum should feel free to claim their roles.) Regarding scumCurrent scumread is Chromatically for two reasons. 1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me. On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up. What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread? Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous. 2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own. ##Vote: Chromatically Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells. Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it. If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them?Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason?You also said: Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:
This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII.
Oh, this feels more like the scum Chromatic from XXXI? I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and Nns. I take that as: 'Okay Aqua, time to unvote me now because I am going to try to start a wagon on someone else and it would not look as good for you to move your vote directly from me to them'. Surprise surprise, in the very next post Aqua unvotes Chrom, which we all knew would happen after reading Aqua's very first post in this game (where he voted for Chrom). The most important line in this post by Aqua is: 'Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you', because that is him paving the way for Chrom to begin the mis-lynch attempt. And then finally Chrom makes a case against me and votes. Now, it would be easier for me to vote if I had an individual scum read, but since I am fairly confident that both Aqua and Chrom are scum, I am going to vote for Chrom because I think doing so will force Aqua to take a very strong stance one way or the other. Chrom already has his vote on me, so if I vote Aqua then Chrom does not need to make a decision and can just leave his vote where it is. ##Vote: Chromatically I almost agree with everything you said. The problem arises when you realize that the case you've made for aqua is a hell of a lot stronger than the case you've made for Chromatically. Is this something you have overlooked? Or are you deliberately weaving a story to pit town against one another? For the time being, it's hard to tell one way or the other, but I did enjoy reading.
I realize that my post focused mostly on Aqua, but my case was that they were working as a team. Any case I have against Aqua alone would be so weak that even I would not vote based on it. If Aqua is scum and Chrom is town then Aqua is much more skilled at this that I am, as it would mean he made it look like he was working with Chrom without Chrom becoming aware of it, and that Chrom played right into his hands. I do not believe that, it makes my connections less likely, and going down that route is more likely to split the vote.
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I am anything but un-confident.
On June 25 2013 03:41 Chromatically wrote:
I don't like your strawman on my case. You've chosen the weakest part to point out (no casual opening), but ignored the rest. It's most definitely not a flimsy case, especially compared to what you have here. Maybe you should go through it and answer my specific points. Why did you feel the need to repeat things that I had said?
Okay.
On June 25 2013 00:58 Chromatically wrote:
This is his first post in the thread. While it might not seem like a big deal, I don't like that he doesn't have a casual opening post. He was present at the beginning of the game, so why wouldn't he post something like everyone else did? It indicates that he is uncomfortable in the thread.
When I checked after game start there were five or so 'hello' posts. I did not see the need to add my own 'hello' post. I have no reason to try to fit in by posting what the people before me did and I did not even consider whether a person could possibly feel uncomfortable when posting in the thread. It was game on and I was looking forward to it, so I got stuck in.
On June 25 2013 00:58 Chromatically wrote:
To avoid being seen as a lurker, hz siezes on the first thing that he can: he basically repeats what I said about Spicy. He's posting just for the sake of posting, because this post is purely a restatement of what has already been said.
I wrote my post before reading yours. I wrote it in a text editor as I was comparing everyone's first posts with their first posts in a previous game. I noticed the difference In Spicy's post and copied the quotes. Then I refreshed the thread and saw your post, so I added in your quote to what I already had to show that I concurred. There was no real content in the thread at this point and I thought it might put a tiny bit of pressure on Spicy.
You made this post, but I did not think anything of it at the time:
On June 24 2013 11:47 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 11:43 hzflank wrote:On June 24 2013 11:25 Chromatically wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 11:17 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote:On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up. What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread? Not taking it super seriously, just busting you back. I posted in the thread then went back to reddit. Checked the thread again after a few minutes. I'll be around tonight and early tomorrow morning. And hey Xzavier. Hmm. In both other newbie games, you started out with a policy post about lurkers. Any particular reason why you changed for this game? I noticed that too. This is Spicy's first post in his previous game, where he was town: On June 06 2013 10:47 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone, I'll get the ball rolling. One of the most important things I've learned about day 1 is to make sure that town is active and posting USEFUL information and not just fluff. Lurkers do nothing to help town and are scummy. As such, I will and I encourage others, to pressure lurkers to post. That is quite a lot more content than his first post in this thread: On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone You don't buy his explanation?
The above becomes more significant when combined with your later pokes at me. I realised it after you asked for me scumreads and then later said that you had a scum read on me and would post more later. You thought that you could set me up from the start, but to be honest you started too early before you had anything substantial on me.
On June 25 2013 00:58 Chromatically wrote:
Seriously, look at this from a town perspective and find the point that this post makes. It literally says nothing.
He posts stuff that has already been said because he's trying hard to look for any way to post without actually contributing.
The point was to add my voice to the NN claim being a bad idea, to make it less likely for the to be a claim bandwagon. I also stated a slightly different reason than you did for the NN claim.
Additionally, I do not think that the NN stuff is just fluff. It has generated more content in this thread than anything else.
On June 25 2013 00:58 Chromatically wrote:
"Oh, remember that I'm just a noob, so don't mind me if I don't try to find scum at all."
Not inconceivable from town, but more likely from scum.
Not relevant, especially since I was trying to find scum from the get go. It was in fact you that forced me to lurk for a brief period today as I was waiting for you to post again to confirm suspicion that I had.
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On June 25 2013 04:06 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 03:41 Chromatically wrote: What's really bizarre is how quickly Tofu agreed with this case. You'd better explain yourself too. I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion.
While I may obviously be incorrect, it was not retaliation. Before Chrom voted for me I had already decided that if Aqua moves his vote off of Chrom and then Chrom makes a case against me then they are working together.
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On June 25 2013 03:41 Chromatically wrote: lol 10/10 conspiracy theory of the century
Now explain to me why this master scum plot is more likely than us both being town.
It is a conspiracy theory, which we both know means that I have a lot riding on it as I stand to look like a fool if it all goes wrong.
I started out by coming to the conclusion that you were either both town or both scum. Aqua's first post looked like a weak poke on a Chrom that he perceived to be town. It was like he had already decided that you were of the same alignment as he was, so I thought he either had a town read that he was trying to confirm, or he knew that you were scum. I already thought that the first part of Aqua's post was a bit scummy, so I hoped to see some interaction between you and him.
Your first post in response contained this:
On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote:
If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them?
Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason?
In the above quote you referred to your previous post here:
On June 24 2013 13:29 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 13:12 Hurricane Sponge wrote: Chromatically, do you have any scumreads? Right now, I'm looking at Xzavier and hzflank. Both have posted a bit, but neither have been scumhunting. hz's recent post makes me feel a little better, but it did only come when I specifically asked him and I don't really agree with it. That doesn't necessarily make him scum though. There are also some other small things that bother me, but I'll elaborate on those later.
Now, at this point what do you think Aqua's reply should be? Your scum read post did not really contain anything substantial and in fact I would say that I was in fact scum hunting (I had poked several people). I thought to myself: If Aqua takes his vote off of Chrom before asking Chrom for more info on his reads, then it is because Aqua does not need to know Chrom's reads.
Aqua even says this himself in his next post:
On June 24 2013 21:08 Aquanim wrote:
Those reads were pretty weak, I'd like to see more from you.
And then in that same post he says:
On June 24 2013 21:08 Aquanim wrote:
tl;dr I had uneasy feelings about you but I feel a lot better after reading this post
So Aqua does not get what he wants from you, but for some reason feels better about you, which is why I do not think that you are both town. If you were both town then that exchange should not of ended so easily.
On June 25 2013 04:27 Chromatically wrote:Your explanation's fair. It still doesn't excuse the large amount of fluff and general bad feel I get from your early posting (not that's really explainable). I assume that you're busy right now answering my other questions about your case, so in addition: Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 04:17 hzflank wrote:On June 25 2013 04:06 FirmTofu wrote:On June 25 2013 03:41 Chromatically wrote: What's really bizarre is how quickly Tofu agreed with this case. You'd better explain yourself too. I agreed with it in the sense that it was a plausible theory, not that it was particularly likely. For the record I have you both pegged as town and I think you are both wasting precious time accusing one another. His conspiracy idea arose mainly because you accused him of being scum. I see his post as a long-winded retaliation against your credibility to ensure that no one bandwagons him to oblivion. While I may obviously be incorrect, it was not retaliation. Before Chrom voted for me I had already decided that if Aqua moves his vote off of Chrom and then Chrom makes a case against me then they are working together. When did you decide this? Right when you saw Aqua's case on me?
Right when Aqua said he felt better about you (above). I read that at the same time as I read your previous post. The exchange just did not go as I would expect it to between two town members.
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On June 25 2013 05:23 Chromatically wrote: When did your read on Tofu change from scum to strong town? Is your town read on him totally dependent on associations between me and Aqua?
When I was making my case post against you. I was not sure for a while and if I realised that if I thought Toku scummy then it was highly likely that you were town. Then I got to these posts:
On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote: @FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically?
On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote: I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.
Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.
Event: NN roleclaims Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.
Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.
Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.
If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum. First, scum is unlikely to claim NN day 1 for fear of being counter-claimed. Somebody who claims NN is obviously not confirmed town, but they're considerably more likely to be town. I have personally never seen a day-one miller claim (analogous to a NN, with different investigative rolls) end up being scum, and plenty end up being town. A miller/NN who is thus likely town and can thus play a strong, town-leading role is a HIGHER PRIORITY for scum to kill than a possible bluesnipe. Also, a day-one NN claim avoids two possibly disastrous situations later on: 1) An actual NN being seen visiting someone and being lynched for it. 2) Mafia fake-claiming NN after being seen visiting somebody. Auto-lynching any NN claim is bad for in the first case, treating NN as town is bad in the second case. A day one claim, before there's any desperate need for a scum to fake-claim it, fixes both of these. The gain in information which scum gets from a day-one NN claim IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. Even IF scum has a tracker, a NN claim reduces their pool of players to track by something like 10% (I haven't done the math but it's about that). And like I said, if the NN plays a good town game he becomes EVEN MORE IMPORTANT for scum to shoot. Scum knowing not to track the NN is less valuable than town knowing not to track him. I'm tired of trying to beat sense into y'all about this, and I'm tired of y'all calling me scum over a difference of opinion about game theory. Someone man up and vote me over this trash or start playing the game properly.On June 24 2013 16:15 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 16:09 FirmTofu wrote: I know Aquanim wanted me to comment on Chromatically, but I would rather address his suggestion to have the NN roleclaim.
Let's have a look at how a roleclaim would play out for scum and town separately so it is easier to visualize.
Event: NN roleclaims Scum Information Set: Know who the NN is with a rather high degree of certainty Town Information Set: Could be an NN or could be scum faking NN. Learn absolutely nothing.
Just based on the information that each side gains, we can see that scum takes a clear lead instantaneously. They will choose to avoid the NN if they have a Tracker and can proceed to eliminate one person from the long list of priority targets.
Town remains confused as to the NN's alignment and ends up in a shitty situation.
If you can find a way to resolve this issue, Aquanim, I would love to hear it. Otherwise, I have you pegged as scum. I agree with this the first person who wrote about NN made me feel noob town, but the second person to post after hearing what was said against it is very odd/scummy. The other guy's plan was bad for other reasons. In this case, however, I am right, the rest of you are wrong, and I am trying to persuade you of that. I'm starting to feel like this is a waste of time though. My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please.
Aqua asked Tofu twice for his opinions on you. This means that if I assume that you and Aqua are scum, then Tofu must be town. There is no way that one scum would insist on an opinion of another scum from the third scum. Also, I would think that Aqua and Toku are not scumbuddies, since Tofu's opinion on you seemed important to Aqua.
My take on the reason for that was to establish that Tofu thinks you (Chrom) town. Since Tofu is one of the more active posters so far, if he thinks you town he would be easier to get on my wagon and may even make some good posts to convince others.
So as you suggested, my strong town read on Tofu is dependent on my scum read on you and Aqua.
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On June 25 2013 05:54 Chromatically wrote:Okay, last question: Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 12:07 hzflank wrote: Can I change my TL post timestamps to EST, so they match with the ones from previous QTs? If so, how? Why do you want your timestamps to match QTs?
I was looking into the previous mafia game and trying to line up the times of the QT posts with the time of the thread posts. I was looking specifically at Spicy's opening that game. Fwiw, when I had finished I did not have a scum read on Spicy.
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On June 25 2013 05:54 Chromatically wrote:Okay, last question: Show nested quote +On June 24 2013 12:07 hzflank wrote: Can I change my TL post timestamps to EST, so they match with the ones from previous QTs? If so, how? Why do you want your timestamps to match QTs?
Why did you ask the above question to me?
You are correct regarding playing by day 1 associations to be a very bad idea. I will either come up with a separate case which may or may not be against you, or I will vote on someone else's case. Before I can do that I am hoping to get some posts from other people. I do not want anyone to cast a vote on you based on my associations.
Also, you only defended yourself and did not try to defend Aqua when there was no need to bus him since I had no support.
Obviously this does not mean that I think you are strongly town, but I do not currently think you are the best candidate for lynching either.
##Unvote: Chromatically
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I need to get some sleep so this is very short. I do not agree with Tofu's case against Spicy. I also do not think Tofu is scum.
I have a town read on Onegu and LoneMeow. I would like to see some more posts from Hurricane, Alakaslam and Fyfy.
I am looking forward to some posts from Aqua.
##Vote: Aqua
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EBWOP for full name in vote
##Vote: Aquanim
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Gah woken after 4 hours sleep
Xzavier, we are all working with extremely limited information here, but we have to do the best we can with what we have. I still have Aquanim as my primary scum read, but I am not happy with how I went about it. I think I promised this before but after my next coffee I am going to attempt to make a case on him from scratch. If I have time I will make a couple of cases on other people solely for comparison, but I wont promise to post those until I consider the influence that they might have on voting. I also need to read a few filters because I think we all missed a massive scum tell yesterday and it is bugging me. So much to do!
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In my opinion, Alakaslam has posted the single most scummy sentence in this thread. On the whole I do not think Alakaslam is scummy, but I do think the following post aimed at Onegu should be taken notice of.
On June 25 2013 00:46 Alakaslam wrote:
If it helps, you guide my vote until you look scummy.
Alakaslam, at the time that you posted that, what gave you such a strong town read on Onegu?
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On June 25 2013 15:11 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 14:51 hzflank wrote:In my opinion, Alakaslam has posted the single most scummy sentence in this thread. On the whole I do not think Alakaslam is scummy, but I do think the following post aimed at Onegu should be taken notice of. On June 25 2013 00:46 Alakaslam wrote:
If it helps, you guide my vote until you look scummy.
Alakaslam, at the time that you posted that, what gave you such a strong town read on Onegu? If Alakaslam isn't your scumread, who is? Do you still think I am scum after my replies to the cases against me? In either case, who are your other scumreads?
You are, but I admit that this as much to do with process than anything else. Sorry for the hold up, I am trying to make a case against you starting as neutral as I can. I am also trying to ignore anything about NN in my case. I am finding it hard to do because being neutral is harder than it sounds, but I will get there. I am not going to name any other names until I am done with you one way or the other, as I have a habit of splitting attention.
In my first read I did not find your replies to the cases against you to be good enough, but if that remains the case after my next reads I will explain why. Currently I think you are more scummy than anyone else, but with 10 people to choose from (Stim does not count), the most scummy is not as much as I would like.
Okay, my next post will be a case, but it may take up to 30 minutes.
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My attempt at a neutral case on Aquanim:
Warning this is long and not especially useful. It was done more more own benefit rather than that of the thread. Just read the conclusion if you don't want to read fluff.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 24 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:
Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.
1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.
For an opening, Aqua appears to poke Chromatically. This innocent poke looks like Aqua is just trying to get a response, which is normal scum hunting. So far, not worthy of a scum vote.Aqua then asks FirmTofu twice for his reads on Chromatically: On June 24 2013 15:21 Aquanim wrote: @FirmTofu: What is your read on Chromatically? On June 24 2013 16:26 Aquanim wrote: My case. On Chromatically. Opinions please. FirmTofu avoided the question the first time, which Aqua would have noted. Asking the question a second time indicates that Aqua was either enquiring into a read on Chrom or Tofu. So far, not worthy of a scum vote, but we need to go forward and try to work out what Aqua was trying to get from Chrom or Tofu.Aqua gets this from FirmTofu: On June 24 2013 16:48 FirmTofu wrote: As for Chromatically... Your case is extremely weak.
This is not the most useful information for a town Aqua, but anything is better than nothing. Okay, Aqua is currently just as likely to be town as scum. But then: On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:
I suppose that's a fair enough position to hold. I've personally found that my reads based on 'feelings' are often more accurate than those where I carefully assemble 'evidence'. This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII.
I do not agree with this. While everyone is different, I think in this forum based game our feelings are more likely to do harm than good. It is also suggesting to people that perhaps we should not make carefully assembled cases. Carefully assembled cases (that are a lot better than mine) are exactly what we want on day 1. My Scum-O-Meter is rising, and my paranoia has made an appearance. When I have time I need to go back and look if you have already left any damning evidence for us to carefully assemble.On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote: Asking questions is a town-y kind of thing to do, I agree. However, in my mind it is only significantly town-y when there is an actual plan behind those questions. By comparison, Chromatic was asking pretty generic questions without any real point or follow-up. Asking other people for their reads while having shared none of his own does not sit well with me.
That's confirmation that when Aqua twice asked Tofu to respond regarding Chrom, then there is a reason for him asking. That's fine as it could be a town reason or a scum reason, but as I keep going I hope to get an idea of what his reason was.On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:
All this being said, I think that what he's done so far could plausibly be explained by a town mentality as well as a scum one. If he comes back tomorrow and starts playing a good town-game I'll be looking to lynch somebody else. For the meantime, though, my vote and intention stays. That does not give a clear indication as to whether Aqua's was looking into Chrom or actually looking into Tofu under the pre tense of poking Chrom. However, I am leaning towards him actually wanting information from Tofu rather than from Chrom. (I am intentionally staying away from the discussion on lurkers, as it should not be considered relevant to this case but might be a different discussion to have later) On June 24 2013 18:15 Aquanim wrote: Also, @Hurricane, what is your best guess as to who's scum? The plan behind this question is very obvious and simple: get hurricane involved in read-based scum hunting. Nothing scummy hereNext Chrom answers: On June 24 2013 20:43 Chromatically wrote:
If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them?
Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason?
If Aqua wanted to extract something from Chrom, them I do not think he achieved it with this response. Chrom mentioned that he already posted his reads, but Aqua would of read that hours ago as it was posted at the same time as Aqua's first post. Notice that Chrom actually says what I am saying here with: ' Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. So Aqua responds: On June 24 2013 21:08 Aquanim wrote:
tl;dr I had uneasy feelings about you but I feel a lot better after reading this post. My vote was fundamentally to draw reactions from you (to clarify my read) and other people, and to start some meaningful discussion (I don't think anything is accomplished in a thread until somebody's thrown down a vote).
I just cannot see where Chrom's reply clarifies Aqua's read. It also failed to get much meaningful discussion from the people involved (Chrom, Tofu and Hurricane). If it were me I would of wanted to go back at Chrom more aggressively, but then Chrom's defence was solid so maybe it would have been a waste of time. I get a slightly scummy read here.On June 25 2013 10:47 Aquanim wrote:
The reason why I backed off my case so fast is because I'd previously had only vague feelings that Chromatically was scum, and his replying post felt a lot like aggrieved town to me.
You can come up with convoluted reasons as to why I would ask people about their opinions on my case, or you can accept the simpler and correct explanation that I wanted to draw reactions and make other players express their ideas and thinking about the game, which is a strong tool for finding scum. Okay, so Aqua confirms that your case on Chrom was aimed at getting information from Chrom. No one else agreed with you and Chrom made a strong response, but there was space to prod more if you felt it would be useful. I cannot call this scummyConsidering that I flung quite a lot of muck Aqua's way I would of expected more responses directed my way, or at least something more than two short paragraphs. What happened instead was that Aqua moved onto the vote that Chrom was setting up. This could be taken as scummy or not, I should ask Aqua some questions relating to this.
Conclusion:
A little crumminess, but when taken alone without venturing into areas I do not want to at the moment (NN, lurkers, pre-flip associations), it is a weak case.
I will probably want to ask a few questions and do some reading before I consider moving my vote though, as I dont currently have a better scum read and have not fully investigated all the cases made by others.
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Xzavier, Onegu and I all seem to have similar opinions on scum voting, yet we all seem to have greatly differing personalities. This leads me to believe that Xzavier and Onegu are town, as I think they arrived at their opinions by looking at the situation from a town point of view.
The only slight worry I have on Xzavier is:
On June 25 2013 14:33 Xzavier wrote: Whats the massive scum yell. cuz im not gonna lie. i skimmed threw all the noisy neighbor spam just to see who was asking for them to claim. no other part of it means anything to me xD
But that could just be a character trait or a lack of time. On the whole I am uncomfortable with the votes on Xzavier.
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Regarding my vote on Aqua:
You can criticise me for playing the noob card again, but from my POV as a first time player I feel the need to have at least some conviction in my scum reads and not to change my vote every 30 minutes. The noob card is important right now though, because none of my town reads have their vote on Aqua and while I am an arrogant person, it is pretty extreme to think that I am correct while a group of people who are each more experienced than me have their votes elsewhere. Especially since the number of town reads that I have likely outnumbers the whole scum team.
I did not present a case on Aqua that was likely to convince others of his guilt. That is partially because of my communication skills but also I wanted other people to come up with their own reasons, and hopefully show me things that I missed. I still think that there could be a case on Aqua, but that case depends on how much weight you hold on policy, and there are a significant number of people who do not want to put too much value into policy.
Still, I think that leaving my vote on Aqua all this time was the right thing to do, as having only one wagon form on day one would have been bad. However, the wagon has lost steam and is now useless. Since I would now need to see certain flips before putting Aqua firmly in the scum team, and even if Aqua were lynched if he flipped white I would not gain enough information:
##Unvote: Aquanim
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I will vote again shortly, if only to provide the town with more info based on my voting pattern. I just need to figure out who to vote for.
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I am torn between Alakaslam and StimAddict.
Alakaslam looks a bit scummy, as I have said previously. At this point it would not be hard for anyone to make a case against him. He obviously spent some time researching and trying to scum hunt, but his starting point was Ace. I don't know about other town members, but to be honest it had never even crossed my mind who the scum coach was. Alaka voted Aqua before Hurricane voted Xzavier, but then unvoted Aqua after Hurricane voted Xzavier.
StimAddict has been wholly useless. This is a team game and not posting anything does nothing to aid the team. StimAddict voted for Aqua before Hurricane added the 5th vote on Xzavier.
Either could be scum. Stim has not contributed at all.
##Vote:StimAddict
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I still think that Xzavier is town. Also, if he were scum then his buddies gave up on him too easy. The push for an Aqua lynch was not strong enough. The attempt to move the vote to another party was fragmented.
If Xzavier is scum then Onegu and I are his most likely buddies. And obviously that does not sit well with me because obviously I know my alignment.
If Xzavier is scum, did his allies really give up on him that easily? Why am I the only person fighting his case?
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There is not a wagon on Stim, only me. The other person who I would be willing to switch to is Alakaslam, who Onegu ic currently on and I still do not think Onegu is scum.
Onegu moved his vote off of Aqua very early and has shown no indication of moving it back. If Xzavier and Onegu are both scum then Onegu should of kept his vote on Aqua until the wagon gathered more steam. There were still many people who had not voted when Onegu moved his vote.
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