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On June 25 2013 16:45 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 16:33 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 16:01 Onegu wrote:On June 25 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote: I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum.
##Vote: Aquanim Can you explain this some more? What exactly about my play do you think is scum-motivated? Can you please post your case against me as the only thing you have said is I didnt respond when things were going on, well I was going to sleep when HZ posted his case, I responded to the NN thing and have scum hunted and tried to create a useful town atmosphere. I have no idea what this request has to do with the post you quoted, but whatever... The first page and a half or so of your filter is just talking about policy, power roles and random fluff without any particular intention of finding scum. This isn't damning in as of itself, early game does tend to be like that, but the entirety of your efforts in the direction of finding scum is an overwhelming tunnel of myself. As far as I can tell, you haven't looked at anyone else at all, and endlessly tunneling a likely lynch target for the day while repeating the same old arguments (made by other people before you, mostly) over and over is a good way to look active while not actually bringing anything new to the table or having to pretend to do some original scumhunting. You haven't made any significant and new contributions to the thread, which is scum's natural state. That being said, I think it's possible that you're town and that you think tunneling me like this is accomplishing something, which is why I'm voting Xzavier over you. Actually I have made a scum hunt albit small on alakaslam, I think he is noob scum which isnt as important as killing a scum who knows what they are doing. You mentioned that he might be scum, but I haven't seen any attempt from you to pressure him, to solidify your read on him, or to suggest him as a lynch for today - that is, you haven't committed much to your read. What about his play is scummy to you?
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On June 25 2013 17:27 hzflank wrote:Xzavier, Onegu and I all seem to have similar opinions on scum voting, yet we all seem to have greatly differing personalities. This leads me to believe that Xzavier and Onegu are town, as I think they arrived at their opinions by looking at the situation from a town point of view. The only slight worry I have on Xzavier is: Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 14:33 Xzavier wrote: Whats the massive scum yell. cuz im not gonna lie. i skimmed threw all the noisy neighbor spam just to see who was asking for them to claim. no other part of it means anything to me xD But that could just be a character trait or a lack of time. On the whole I am uncomfortable with the votes on Xzavier. Is there anything about Xzavier and Onegu's play which makes you think they're town besides where their vote is? Personally, I can't see anything about their play which makes me think they're looking at this game with a town mentality and actually searching for scum, rather than just jumping on the only other wagon going.
I think they are likely scum but I have a much townier read on you because I can see you're thinking about the game and critically evaluating your reads. Their arguments, on the other hand, are mostly "herp derp he disagreed with us about nosy neighbours" and "look at this single post and how it agrees with something someone else said, that's so scummy!". I don't think either of them could sincerely believe I'm scum based on the arguments they've presented.
You said you had some questions for me, will they be forthcoming soon?
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On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 17:35 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 17:27 hzflank wrote:Xzavier, Onegu and I all seem to have similar opinions on scum voting, yet we all seem to have greatly differing personalities. This leads me to believe that Xzavier and Onegu are town, as I think they arrived at their opinions by looking at the situation from a town point of view. The only slight worry I have on Xzavier is: On June 25 2013 14:33 Xzavier wrote: Whats the massive scum yell. cuz im not gonna lie. i skimmed threw all the noisy neighbor spam just to see who was asking for them to claim. no other part of it means anything to me xD But that could just be a character trait or a lack of time. On the whole I am uncomfortable with the votes on Xzavier. Is there anything about Xzavier and Onegu's play which makes you think they're town besides where their vote is? Personally, I can't see anything about their play which makes me think they're looking at this game with a town mentality and actually searching for scum, rather than just jumping on the only other wagon going. I think they are likely scum but I have a much townier read on you because I can see you're thinking about the game and critically evaluating your reads. Their arguments, on the other hand, are mostly "herp derp he disagreed with us about nosy neighbours" and "look at this single post and how it agrees with something someone else said, that's so scummy!". I don't think either of them could sincerely believe I'm scum based on the arguments they've presented. You said you had some questions for me, will they be forthcoming soon? Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE
##: VOTE ALAKASLAMBut if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. Okay. The ball's in your court now to convince the rest of us that Alakaslam is a better lynch than anyone else on the table.
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So Alakaslam isn't even going to pretend to have a reason for that vote. I still think Xzavier's a little more likely to flip scum than Alakaslam but damn, he's trying hard to reverse that...
I agree with Onegu that Alakaslam has been useless, but unfortunately scum has no monopoly on uselessness. That being said, there's only so much uselessness that I can tolerate. If for whatever reason we decide not to lynch Xzavier my next preferred lynch would be Alakaslam now - I don't think my read will ever get any better on him and this copout doesn't look good. Onegu's effort on the Alakaslam case hasn't removed him entirely from my scum reads, but he's certainly in the "wait and see what he does for another day to clarify read" pile now.
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On June 25 2013 23:11 Spicydinosaur wrote: I'm not liking Xzavier as a D1 lynch but i see why others are voting him. Before chrom threw a vote down on him he did 0 scum hunting and his posts were just policy and/or fluff. With that i can clearly see a vote. However what he has done since the votes started piling on has convinced me he's town. An unproductive town before the vote, but a townie no less.
Insulting 1/2 the people in the thread is not the best way to stop a lynch on you, in fact its a good way to guarantee it. Then he throws a quick vote on aqua with a weak reason to back it up. The vote felt very reactionary like he was going for the first scummy thing he could find, not very calculated. I know some people dont like meta in newbie games, but here i feel Xzavier was just being a lot more cautious with his scum hunting after what happened last game which didnt go so well. I also feel that a scum xzavier would be more self conscious of his 0 scum hunting up to this point and would have put something down at this point.
On a lesser note, I'm very cautious of the first bandwagon (not necessarily of the person who started it) but because with the piling on its easier for scum to hide in it.
I'm going to look at those who jumped on xzavier and also look at the case on aqua next. I don't see how insulting half the thread indicates townieness to you at all. If he had in fact come back and shown half the thread they'd made a huge mistake, I'd be with you, but his posts after that didn't have anything mindblowing like that. It feels to me like he was just trying to intimidate people into not voting him, rather than having an actual plan - not a completely impossible reaction from town, but I think it makes more sense as a scum move.
What about "going for the first scummy thing he could find" is in any way a reaction which can only be explained by Xzavier being town? In fact, how is this not more likely as a scum reaction?
I also feel that a scum xzavier would be more self conscious of his 0 scum hunting up to this point and would have put something down at this point.
His vote for me was him trying to put something down at that point.
Lastly, what about the first bandwagon do you think makes it easier to hide on, as opposed to later wagons? I can't see any difference.
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On June 25 2013 23:31 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 23:24 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 23:11 Spicydinosaur wrote: I'm not liking Xzavier as a D1 lynch but i see why others are voting him. Before chrom threw a vote down on him he did 0 scum hunting and his posts were just policy and/or fluff. With that i can clearly see a vote. However what he has done since the votes started piling on has convinced me he's town. An unproductive town before the vote, but a townie no less.
Insulting 1/2 the people in the thread is not the best way to stop a lynch on you, in fact its a good way to guarantee it. Then he throws a quick vote on aqua with a weak reason to back it up. The vote felt very reactionary like he was going for the first scummy thing he could find, not very calculated. I know some people dont like meta in newbie games, but here i feel Xzavier was just being a lot more cautious with his scum hunting after what happened last game which didnt go so well. I also feel that a scum xzavier would be more self conscious of his 0 scum hunting up to this point and would have put something down at this point.
On a lesser note, I'm very cautious of the first bandwagon (not necessarily of the person who started it) but because with the piling on its easier for scum to hide in it.
I'm going to look at those who jumped on xzavier and also look at the case on aqua next. I don't see how insulting half the thread indicates townieness to you at all. If he had in fact come back and shown half the thread they'd made a huge mistake, I'd be with you, but his posts after that didn't have anything mindblowing like that. It feels to me like he was just trying to intimidate people into not voting him, rather than having an actual plan - not a completely impossible reaction from town, but I think it makes more sense as a scum move. What about "going for the first scummy thing he could find" is in any way a reaction which can only be explained by Xzavier being town? In fact, how is this not more likely as a scum reaction? I also feel that a scum xzavier would be more self conscious of his 0 scum hunting up to this point and would have put something down at this point.
His vote for me was him trying to put something down at that point. Lastly, what about the first bandwagon do you think makes it easier to hide on, as opposed to later wagons? I can't see any difference. What im getting at is that Xzavier's play doesnt feel calculated at all. What i meant by the insult comment was that it wasn't smart from a scum perspective so it gives a townie vibe to me. Xzavier's quick reaction vote can be explained 100 different ways but to me felt like he thought "oh shit im getting votes, let me make a case quick." THAT can look objectively scummy as it does to many others but to me it doesn't. As for the bandwagons, there really is no difference between hiding. If there are two bandwagons going then scum could split. But usually in the games ive played, the first person to get a wagon going typically isnt scum. Like i said before not a huge point as more of a cautious observation. I don't see how insulting the thread is bad from a scum perspective. It gives the illusion that you're confident and whatnot (and thus town) without having to do any scumhunting or anything else useful. In fact, it sounds a lot like what I've heard about Ace's style.
In any case, he did do it and it hasn't "guaranteed" his lynch by any means, so I can't see how it's a bad scum move. For that matter, if it was going to guarantee his lynch, there's nothing about
His case on me, while bad, isn't inherently super-scummy in as of itself. If bad cases were a scumtell this game... My problem with it (and with his play as a whole) is that he never did anything with it. Xzavier isn't pushing on me to improve his read, he isn't trying to convince anyone else to lynch me, he isn't looking at anyone else... he just dropped a lacklustre case and said "I'm done with scumhunting for the day, time to whinge about how everyone's being nasty to me and expecting me to play up to my meta".
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EBWOP: In any case, he did do it and it hasn't "guaranteed" his lynch by any means, so I can't see how it's a bad scum move. For that matter, if it was going to guarantee his lynch, there's nothing about that which makes it a good move as town, either. The insult was noise to me - plausible from town and from scum, so it doesn't affect my read on him much at all.
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Lastly, who says scum play has to be finely calculated? He said himself he was pressed for time - there's no reason why that shouldn't negatively impact the quality of his planning and calculation if he's scum.
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Hiya all. My opinion on the StiMaDDict wagon:
His play hasn't helped town at all so far, but the sheer volume (or lack of it) of his filter makes it difficult to establish a solid read on him. He could be scum, but he could also just be lazy/busy/trolly town, it's too early to tell. In any case, it is possible to establish a much better read on Xzavier. I'm far more confident on my scumread of him than on StiMaDDict. In addition, knowing Xzavier's alignment for certain tells us a LOT about what's happened today. Knowing StiMaDDict's alignment would tell us next to nothing.
+ Show Spoiler [An aside] +On June 25 2013 15:29 Xzavier wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 15:16 FirmTofu wrote: Hey Xzavier, what do you think about Spicy? Would you be willing to switch your vote onto him? Honestly not today. he did a really good jpb as town last game and gave some good insights. After going threw his filter it seems like he was forced into a defensive posting pattern due to pressure. he hasnt said much recently. Honestly i wouldnt mind lynching alakazam day 1. But ill giv him a chance to respond. Im really not liking chrom or auqa for their tunnelling me while ignoring logic and basing everything off of the fact that i havnt caught scum yet or made a case. On June 26 2013 03:50 Xzavier wrote: I dont get why aqua and chrome are voting somebody they know can be a good town. I havnt made huge cases yet, i havnt had time to. ill be active during night one if im still aliv. I would prefer to delay my lynch until day2. today id like a lynch on alakazam or aqua. idc which. ill probably choose between the two on my break fepending on the situation.
IF I DO GET LYNCHED: everybody take a long hard look at aqua and chrom.
and look at alakazam now he lurks and one of his few posts was saying im sheeping and doing no scumhunting this game until the guy im sheeping looks scummy. the godfather last game i was in said something almost identical to that. its a pretty big noob scum tell imo. alone it judt warrents serious investifagation. There's a pattern here of wanting not to lynch people based on their strong play in previous games... which has absolutely no relevance to this game. Could be a side-effect of him not having time to read this thread properly, but not wanting to commit to anything relevant to this game is characteristic of scum.
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On June 26 2013 09:07 Xzavier wrote: Unfortunately. im going to dissapoint you by flipping green. I will say this:
i firmly believe firmtofu is town. :D
no really iv gotten that vibe. not all that strong.
HZ flank also stfikes me as town. or hes playing the riskiest scum gambet. but all he would be gaining is a little towncred. so in pretty confident hes town.
Heres list of people to look ibto: lonemeow. aqua. alakazam. Chromatically.
Because they hav tunneled me and ignored logic and focused on tgeir silly probably purposely bad logic.
Do you seriously not understand why we are voting for you? I think you're scum because you have contributed nothing original in terms of scumhunting to the thread, just poking weak fingers of suspicion at whoever else happens to be suspected by other people at the time. Explain to me what about this is "silly probably purposely bad logic".
Martyring defences do not impress me. I don't expect you to make a good contribution, I expected you to make a contribution, and I just haven't seen one.
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On June 26 2013 09:12 Xzavier wrote: Aqua. holy motherfucking shit your lucky i cant quote right now.
I was saying that because your entire scumread is based on my previous game.
Everybody read his filter and then that post please.
On June 25 2013 14:19 Aquanim wrote: Like I said, I don't really know your meta and it's not relevant to my read. Are you serious?
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On June 26 2013 09:19 Chromatically wrote: I also like the part where he said that I was letting you do all of the posting.
If we were to do some voteswitch shennanies, I assume that you'd want to switch to Onegu? Not any more. I'd prefer to let him post for another day and improve my read on him, I can still believe his play from town or from scum at this point.
If we absolutely had to switch, I'd say Alakaslam or StiMaDDict, but they would basically be policy lynches for me. I don't think this thread is going to progress much until Xzavier flips though, so I'm very much opposed to shenanigans at this point. Let's face it, if we don't lynch him today, we'll spend tomorrow deciding whether to lynch him too. I'd prefer to move on.
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I won't have time to reply to that case before the lynch, but I'm working on a reply.
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The Nosy Neighbour stuff AGAIN? is this real life
On June 26 2013 10:49 StiMaDDict wrote:Early in the game concerning NN, Aquanim favored NN claiming. His reasonings were: 1) NN is useless and do more harm to town than good if left unclaimed. + Show Spoiler +This role is similar to a Miller in that it isn't useful for town at all, and could seriously backfire if they are watched/tracked/whatever by a townie. 2) There is no drawback for town from NN claim. + Show Spoiler +I don't see any downside to a Nosy Neighbour claiming, the worst case is that they play obvtown, get shot, and draw a shot away from actual town power roles. 3) Mafia can't fake claim NN later on if they are caught visiting later in the game. + Show Spoiler +The biggest reason a Nosy Neighbour should claim now is that it eliminates the possibility of a scum fake-claiming it later if he is caught shooting/using a PR on someone. I have no problem with proposing an idea and giving proper reasonings, however assuming certain things, contradicting logics, and planting a wrong idea to others, are things which I see as scum behaviors. First, he goes ahead and pronounce to the world that NN is useless. Furthermore, NN will harm town by confusing our blues. Sidestepping from the argument whether NN should claim or not, he plants an idea that NN is bad. It is town's goal to get as many advantages as possible from what we are given, not to eliminate certain role as useless right on. ...Please explain to me how town can make sure of getting any kind of advantage out of the Nosy Neighbour role.
Second, he assumes that watcher or tracker will not be able to figure out who the mafia is. Think about it for a second. It is very rare that NN will visit the same target mafia will visit. Even if it is the case, it is two out of one. They can incorporate that information to their scumreads.
Mafia has power roles besides their nightkill, and one of them could conceivably be used on just about anyone. If a mafia power role is seen visiting someone, I'd prefer for them to have to claim a town PR and justify all of their actions than to claim NN and say "Welp I have no idea who I visited".
Third, why would it be a good thing if NN get shot for playing good town. It would be good for mafia of course.
SOMEBODY is going to get shot for playing good town. I'd prefer to take the Nosy Neighbour out of the game entirely if possible.
Fourth, this is the most bothering thing. Mafia can't fake claim NN if they are caught visiting. How would we find out mafia was visiting? Unless tracker/watcher claims (not a good thing) telling the town that they saw it. Basically
At some point the tracker/watcher (if one exists) will either claim, or die (revealing their role) and (hopefully) leave breadcrumbs which will allow us to work out what they saw. Are you seriously saying that these roles will never be useful to the town? If so, what is the point of the roles at all?
Also if there aren't more than 1 person visiting the victim, isn't it obvious that he is mafia regardless of what he says?
Again, other mafia power roles. Also you're only considering the watcher.
Incorporating his later posts.. + Show Spoiler +That's certainly a possibility, but I think it's more important that we deny scum the opportunity to fakeclaim Nosy Neighbour later. + Show Spoiler +It's more likely that town (with two possible track/watch roles) will be misled by an unclaimed Nosy Neighbour than scum. I'd prefer to know that anyone claiming it later is scum than to have scum know that one particular person does not have a PR. Scum generally prioritize shooting strong townies over blue-sniping anyway, and if a claimed Nosy Neighbour (who is thus likely town) plays a strong towngame they are FAR more likely to be shot. His main concerning is trying to catch mafia fake claiming later BUT why the fuck do would you say it out so loud and clear so even the mafia can hear all our plan. Aquanim's so called "plan" could have worked if only town knew about it and agree to it but, hello, we are playing this game where we don't know who the mafia is. If mafia know about the plan then they won't claim NN and by extension will HAVE to claim something else, which I would prefer (see above).
This bit is little nip picking but here he sounds like he himself is mafia now. + Show Spoiler +Scum generally prioritize shooting strong townies over blue-sniping anyway, and if a claimed Nosy Neighbour (who is thus likely town) plays a strong towngame they are FAR more likely to be shot. This one sums up why he is contradicting himself. + Show Spoiler +What. Just... what. If somebody claims Nosy Neighbour day 1, they aren't counterclaimed, and they aren't scummy, there is NO REASON to lynch them. If somebody is a Nosy Neighbour, they are MUCH MORE LIKELY to harm the town if the town doesn't know they are (likely to be) the Nosy Neighbour.
Making scum claim Nosy Neighbour day one (which would be brave) or not at all is the optimal play. + Show Spoiler +Obviously, scum can claim Nosy Neighbour so whoever claims it isn't confirmed town by any means. So we don't lynch whoever claim NN Day1 but we are not sure whether he is town or mafia and a scum wouldn't fake claim Day1 unless he is brave but again whoever claimed or fake claimed NN Day1 is shouldn't be lynched unless he is suspicious? Can someone explain this to me.. But in all seriousness, Aquanim is just trying to somehow magically make it sound logical and get NN to claim Day1. THAT really looks like scum play. Convincing town to do what he wants without making sense. The point is that we can't automatically assume a claimed Nosy Neighbour is town, but they are likely (not certain) to be town.
Aquanim's case and voting on Chromatically was both strange and suspicious as well. 1) If it was semi-serious case, then it went on longer than I should have. 2) If it was a serious case, it was way too weak without enough evidence. 3) If it was a pressure vote, then it did not accomplish anything useful. I would even say that it came down too easily. + Show Spoiler +Regarding scum Current scumread is Chromatically for two reasons.
1) I don't like the feel of his initial posts. Making troll-cases to get the game rolling is fine, I have no objection to that in as of itself, but there's a certain nit-picking quality to his posts that feels wrong to me.
On June 24 2013 11:13 Chromatically wrote: Show nested quote +
Well, it's hard to decide whether the "hey" part or the "everyone" part is scummier. Really a toss up.
What could you possibly expect me to explain? You're taking this awfully seriously. Why did you take so long to reply if you were in the thread?
Trying to read something into someone not posting for five minutes is ludicrous.
2) He's been doing a lot of asking other people for their reads while offering nothing even approaching one of his own.
##Vote: Chromatically Rather than guessing what was his purpose, I will save time by referring to one of his post. + Show Spoiler +tl;dr I had uneasy feelings about you but I feel a lot better after reading this post. My vote was fundamentally to draw reactions from you (to clarify my read) and other people, and to start some meaningful discussion (I don't think anything is accomplished in a thread until somebody's thrown down a vote).
Go find some scum. ##Unvote So if he was pressuring voting, why did he take it off? You were satisfied with this? + Show Spoiler +Aqua, are you scum? Both of these things are towntells.
Explain to me the scum motivation in getting discussion rolling early day 1, which was OBVIOUSLY the reason that I pressured Spicy (and it worked). Sorry, if you thought that it was "ludicrous", but it doesn't make me scum and you know it.
If you wanted to know about someone, you could just asked me. I'm not just going to randomly post reads if I'm not going to push for their lynch, but I'll definitely tell you what I think of someone or who my scumreads are. Why wouldn't you ask me for my scumreads if you wanted them?
Probably because that's not actually what you want at all. Someone else asked me for scumreads, and I posted mine right below your post, but you haven't reacted to that at all. Does this point still stand even after I've posted my scumreads? Or did your opinion not change at all for some reason?
You also said: On June 24 2013 17:04 Aquanim wrote:
This doesn't feel to me like the town Chromatic which I played with in Newbie XXXIII.
Oh, this feels more like the scum Chromatic from XXXI?
I am very, very uncomfortable with you, Aqua, because you are usually very town from your first post. This game, you've done a lot of shitting up the thread with stuff about claims and NNs. Furthermore, you didn't ask a scumread from Chromatically. He himself said that Aquanim should ask him if he wants to know. This seems as if Aquanim wanted, not something, but anything from Chromatically. And as soon as he gets a reply, comment oneliner to each of the paragraph, boom, vote comes off. Lastly, a small thing. "Go find some scum" would not be something I would say to someone I tried to pressure. The goal of my vote for Chromatically was to get a reaction from him (which I did, and I read him after that reaction and now as town) and to start people thinking seriously about a lynch, and I think I accomplished both of those goals.
Next few posts are null. I will not try to make everything Aquanim said as my evidence. His response to hzflank's case was actually very town like, I will admit. He explain his action and nothing more. He did not try to defend Chromatically or anything. + Show Spoiler +I've tried to pull out the parts of hzflank's case which are primarily about me.
Aquanim hopes that he can get a few town to agree that the NN should out themselves. Then his scumbuddies can also agree and the NN might claim, giving an advantage to the scum team. Since Hurricane did not get a hard time, Aquanim does not think that he will be lynched for being the first to make the suggestion. Aquanim is fairly sure that when the time comes he can rely on Hurricanes vote for NN to claim, so he really only needs two more town votes, which makes it worth a try.
Has it even crossed your mind that I might think I'm right about the Nosy Neighbour?
The rest of the case on me is primarily related to the nature of my case on Chromatically. Remember that when I made that case it was (by a long way) the first vote of the game - nobody had any significant cases at that time. I took my case more seriously (despite its flimsiness, which I admit) because in my experience a game of Mafia only starts to progress significantly when somebody has put down a vote and is pushing, in some way, for a lynch. The reason why I backed off my case so fast is because I'd previously had only vague feelings that Chromatically was scum, and his replying post felt a lot like aggrieved town to me.
You can come up with convoluted reasons as to why I would ask people about their opinions on my case, or you can accept the simpler and correct explanation that I wanted to draw reactions and make other players express their ideas and thinking about the game, which is a strong tool for finding scum. But he does not explain what exactly he got out of his pressure vote. What about Chromatically's response was appropriate and what desired response did he get from other players. Next few posts.. (getting real tired of referring..) + Show Spoiler +On June 25 2013 11:00 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 10:44 Chromatically wrote: I think that Xzavier is actually the one I want to lynch today. Is there anything in particular that makes you want to lynch Xzavier over Onegu? Their posting to date seems to be of a similar character to me, except that Onegu has been in the thread while interesting things have happened and still hasn't contributed much. On June 25 2013 11:44 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 11:40 Chromatically wrote: Tofu, you still don't like Spicy?
And Aqua, who's your top read?
Everyone, Xzav? I'd prefer to see Xzavier's reply before I comment on either of these in detail. I don't see any reason to believe he's town from his posts so far, though. On June 25 2013 12:36 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 12:25 Chromatically wrote: Nothing else to say, Aqua?
I'm not used to prompting you for reads and opinions. Don't you have any thoughts on the events of today? hz/Spicy/Tofu? I'm not interested in lynching any of those three today, if that's what you're asking. I can see the thought process of all three and I can easily see all of it coming from a town mindset, even if I don't agree with a lot of it. My current suspicions lie with Onegu and Xzavier, since they have posted a fair bit but actually said little to nothing of value. On June 25 2013 12:54 Aquanim wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 12:44 Chromatically wrote: Alright, that's pretty much where I'm going too. But with more Alakaslam and less Onegu. I have to admit I've been having trouble understanding what Alakaslam has said so far... but I'm having difficulty seeing his thing about "spamming up the thread with bad bbcode -> scum" ( link) coming from a scum player. It just feels too... enthusiastic. I get the overall impression that he is trying. I'd love to see more from him but I'd prefer to lynch Xzavier or Onegu at this point. (A quick note: LoneMeow did say pregame that he would be on vacation until the 27th, so I'm inclined not to lynch him today.) Maybe it's just me but it sounds to me as if he is trying to find a lynch target rather than an actual scum. He keeping going on about how Onegu and Xzavier haven't contributed to the scum that he himself hasn't really contributed either. All he did was pressure vote Chromatically for a little and backed off. Nothing more. Also he seems not concerned about lurkers at all (me, yeah..). Finally he puts his vote on Xzavier, because Xzavier made the first move. It is more of a response like, "uhh, I'm torn between Onegu and Xzavier. What?! You bit me, Xzavier? Alright, bring it!" (exaggerated, I know). Some more bullshitting after that.. It is an irony that his so called case on Xzavier apply to himself. Do you seriously think my case on Xzavier applies to me as well? I've been looking for more information the entire day while Xzavier went "oh woe is me".
+ Show Spoiler +1) some useless talk in the first 12 hours 2) a vote on me with poor justification 3) some unconvincing defence 1) Aquanim really haven't said much after first 12 hours. 2) A vote on Xzavier with poor justification. 3) Aquanim's unconvincing defence. Conclusion: My vote is on Aquanim for now. To me he seems to be a frustrated little man who is trying to make it sound as other people are not making sense while he himself is not really making much sense. His NN policy definitely smell like mafia. Lastly, why are you trying to choose lynch targets rather than putting out a solid case on someone and back that up with evidence and analysis rather than just general "not contributing" or "not making sense." Quote and point towards exactly where is scum rather than tied down by lynch. Not contributing at all to looking for scum IS a scumtell. I've posted plenty of analysis and evidence and you're simply blind to it. Your case is piss-weak and mostly a repetition of what little has been said before. I'm not impressed.
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That got kinda sparse towards the end simply because I'm tired of repeating the same thing over and over again.
Well, a double townie flip is distinctly less than good, but Xzavier being green still tells us a lot. Obviously I'm the only one who knows certainly that I am town, but from my perspective (seeing this as a double-townie-wagon kind of day) I doubt scum took a hugely active role on Xzavier's wagon or on mine.
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On June 26 2013 12:50 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote: Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav.
I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim. I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point. P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink* I think that a hypothetical Vigilante should probably NOT shoot tonight for the following reasons:
1) Statistically speaking, the vigilante is unlikely to die between now and the next night phase. They could get shot by scum, but they're unlikely to be lynched (since they can claim Vigilante). I expect that by night 2 our reads will be a lot stronger and a vigilante will be able to shoot scum with much higher confidence.
2) If the vigilante does shoot tonight and shoots a townie, then (after a scum NK) there will be 8 players remaining in the game, and probably 3 of them will be anti-town. This will be a MYLO situation on day 2 - that is, if we mislynch again, we almost certainly lose right away (barring lucky night actions), and even if we lynch scum we're faced with the same situation again. While obviously the goal is to lynch scum every day, I'd prefer not to have to lynch 3 scum in a row or instantly lose...
Don't get me wrong, if StiMaDDict were to go mysteriously missing in the night I wouldn't grieve much, he's been bloody useless so far. However, I think it's worth waiting the extra day to be sure that he (or whoever else is being considered for a Vig shot) is actually scum, since the consequences of shooting a townie are so dire.
Spicy, on the other hand, would be a poor vigilante shot IMO - he's posted enough that we would get more out of discussing lynching him than simply shooting him.
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Returning to our regularly scheduled broadcast of "anything other than blue roles":
I played a large role in lynching a townie Day 1 and I acnowledge that some of you probably suspect me because of this. I believed he was the most likely player in the game to flip red, and I explained clearly why I believed that. If you suspect that I am scum, I suggest you read my filter and ask yourself two questions:
1) Does this person believe in the arguments they are presenting? 2) Is this person afraid of getting attention and being scrutinised?
(These questions could profitably be applied to a read through the filter of any player in a game of Mafia, hence the third person. In fact, I would suggest that you do apply these questions to any of your reads.)
If you have any questions I'm happy to answer them. I don't plan on posting anything huge until the night-action deadline (one hour before the daypost) since the next move is mostly scum's and I don't see anything to be gained by showing my reads before then.
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On June 26 2013 13:31 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:On June 26 2013 12:50 FirmTofu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote: Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav.
I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim. I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point. P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink* I think that a hypothetical Vigilante should probably NOT shoot tonight for the following reasons: 1) Statistically speaking, the vigilante is unlikely to die between now and the next night phase. They could get shot by scum, but they're unlikely to be lynched (since they can claim Vigilante). I expect that by night 2 our reads will be a lot stronger and a vigilante will be able to shoot scum with much higher confidence. 2) If the vigilante does shoot tonight and shoots a townie, then (after a scum NK) there will be 8 players remaining in the game, and probably 3 of them will be anti-town. This will be a MYLO situation on day 2 - that is, if we mislynch again, we almost certainly lose right away (barring lucky night actions), and even if we lynch scum we're faced with the same situation again. While obviously the goal is to lynch scum every day, I'd prefer not to have to lynch 3 scum in a row or instantly lose... Don't get me wrong, if StiMaDDict were to go mysteriously missing in the night I wouldn't grieve much, he's been bloody useless so far. However, I think it's worth waiting the extra day to be sure that he (or whoever else is being considered for a Vig shot) is actually scum, since the consequences of shooting a townie are so dire. Spicy, on the other hand, would be a poor vigilante shot IMO - he's posted enough that we would get more out of discussing lynching him than simply shooting him. This post made me really sad. I have to completely disagree with you. There's been a lot of content, and every townie worth their salt has to have at least a couple names on their Scum List. The longer he waits to take the shot, the longer something can go wrong (NK, mislynch, etc.). I hate seeing you come out on the wrong end on two policy discussions, considering the first one got you nearly lynched and I was leaning toward believing you to be town. Sure, I have a couple of names on my scumlist, but I'm not willing to bet the farm on any of them just yet. Like I said, a Vigilante is unlikely to be mislynched since he can claim, and the odds of him being shot are relatively low. A Vigilante is likely to be alive in the next night phase, and being able to take a shot when there is more information to decide a target is a good thing.
Also, a successful Vigilante shot at this point does not increase the number of mislynches before scum win. An unsuccessful Vigilante shot DOES decrease the number of mislynches before scum win. The town has a lot to lose through an unsuccessful Vigilante shot, and not as much to gain as might otherwise be the case. Obviously shooting scum is good, but a missed shot would be catastrophic.
Perhaps instead of thinking I'm scum because I have a different opinion on Mafia theory to you, you should seriously consider my arguments?
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On June 26 2013 13:50 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2013 13:44 Aquanim wrote:On June 26 2013 13:31 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 26 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote:On June 26 2013 12:50 FirmTofu wrote:On June 26 2013 12:43 Chromatically wrote: Interestingly enough, it's very much not impossible that none of the scum were voting for Xzav.
I'd still recommend a vigi shot in Stim. I disagree. vigi should shoot the target most likely to flip scum, and that is most definitely Onegu at this point. P.S. I wouldn't mind Spicy either *wink wink* I think that a hypothetical Vigilante should probably NOT shoot tonight for the following reasons: 1) Statistically speaking, the vigilante is unlikely to die between now and the next night phase. They could get shot by scum, but they're unlikely to be lynched (since they can claim Vigilante). I expect that by night 2 our reads will be a lot stronger and a vigilante will be able to shoot scum with much higher confidence. 2) If the vigilante does shoot tonight and shoots a townie, then (after a scum NK) there will be 8 players remaining in the game, and probably 3 of them will be anti-town. This will be a MYLO situation on day 2 - that is, if we mislynch again, we almost certainly lose right away (barring lucky night actions), and even if we lynch scum we're faced with the same situation again. While obviously the goal is to lynch scum every day, I'd prefer not to have to lynch 3 scum in a row or instantly lose... Don't get me wrong, if StiMaDDict were to go mysteriously missing in the night I wouldn't grieve much, he's been bloody useless so far. However, I think it's worth waiting the extra day to be sure that he (or whoever else is being considered for a Vig shot) is actually scum, since the consequences of shooting a townie are so dire. Spicy, on the other hand, would be a poor vigilante shot IMO - he's posted enough that we would get more out of discussing lynching him than simply shooting him. This post made me really sad. I have to completely disagree with you. There's been a lot of content, and every townie worth their salt has to have at least a couple names on their Scum List. The longer he waits to take the shot, the longer something can go wrong (NK, mislynch, etc.). I hate seeing you come out on the wrong end on two policy discussions, considering the first one got you nearly lynched and I was leaning toward believing you to be town. Sure, I have a couple of names on my scumlist, but I'm not willing to bet the farm on any of them just yet. Like I said, a Vigilante is unlikely to be mislynched since he can claim, and the odds of him being shot are relatively low. A Vigilante is likely to be alive in the next night phase, and being able to take a shot when there is more information to decide a target is a good thing. Also, a successful Vigilante shot at this point does not increase the number of mislynches before scum win. An unsuccessful Vigilante shot DOES decrease the number of mislynches before scum win. The town has a lot to lose through an unsuccessful Vigilante shot, and not as much to gain as might otherwise be the case. Obviously shooting scum is good, but a missed shot would be catastrophic. Perhaps instead of thinking I'm scum because I have a different opinion on Mafia theory to you, you should seriously consider my arguments? Whoa there. I never said I thought you were scum. Look at my filter, I never went after you because of differences of opinion on policy. (That feels like a pretty scum move to me personally; blowing something small and ultimately constructive way out of proportion.) Hopefully you'll return the favor and not attack me for thinking you're wrong on this point. Your reply here doesn't really affect my read of you, I just wanted to blow that out of the water before I had to spend another page of filter arguing with people about it :/
Do you see what I'm getting at about the Vigilante, though?
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On June 26 2013 13:52 Hurricane Sponge wrote: EBWOP: And I would be willing to take the shot at one of my reads in particular if I were the Vigilante tonight. But that's either a difference in confidence, or just my personality to want to make 'Big Plays'.
Your math is sound, and if the vig is not confident, he should not shoot. But if you've got the read, climb the ladder, kid. Make yourself famous.
EBWOP: I guess I just got ninja-d. I'm satisfied with that answer, even if I don't 100% agree with your point of view.
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