On March 21 2013 03:31 geript wrote:
##unvote
##vote: VisceraEyes
##unvote
##vote: VisceraEyes
What is this ninja vote?
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 20 2013 18:35 GMT
#1761
On March 21 2013 03:31 geript wrote: ##unvote ##vote: VisceraEyes What is this ninja vote? | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 20 2013 18:42 GMT
#1762
I didn't see any host confirmation of this Mirror, so if you believe it exists then you believe VisceraEyes' words. | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 21 2013 20:59 GMT
#2400
On March 21 2013 12:37 goodkarma wrote: Show nested quote + On March 21 2013 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Three of you just switched to Good Karma in the last twenty minutes. He only has four votes. Why can't we kill Ace again? There's like honestly no reason... What you just posted makes sense to me. The "not useful" meta argument I had doesn't seem to hold water, as I believe this is a solid case. While your day one was very scummy, as was some of your wishy-washy reads from today, I feel your case deserves consideration. Unfortunately, time is short. I'm going to change my vote while I look further into this.: ##Unvote ##Vote: Ace goodkarma acknowledges that Mr. Wiggles is very scummy, but "feels" like his case is still worth consideration. He then puts his vote on Ace while acknowledging the lack of time. Let me repeat that. He acknowledges that his super scummy read Mr. Wiggles made a case, that the case "feels" ok even though he didn't have time to read it, an proceeds to side with his super scum read Mr. Wiggles. He moves his vote before he looks further into this. And he doesn't look into it at all! This means that goodkarma, without properly reading his scum read Mr. Wiggles' case decided it was better to err on his side and vote Ace. Before reading. How does he respond to Ace's flip? On March 22 2013 02:02 goodkarma wrote: Would it be possible for us to, like maybe, consolidate on the top two candidates like ~halfway through the day cycle so that, like maybe, we can have a more decisive vote result that can actually be analyzed? It turned into a 3-way split result... Like how in the fuck did you expect things would end well? But goodkarma, you switched too... There were like 4+ people who couldn't be bothered to consolidate on the top two candidates of the day (VE/Mr. Wiggles), and I thought fuck it (I know, not great reasoning... feel free to hammer me but tbh exactly my thought process). What I saw in Mr. Wiggle's most recent case was what I perceived to be a blatant scumslip. We're talking about the legendary ace. Wanting to hunt who he thought to be 3P and not scum. It just didn't make sense from a town perspective, so even if he wasn't in the game that long I opted to lynch him. But if you want a TL;DR for what to take from the ace mislynch: We need to consolidate on two candidates, and anyone who can't be bothered to and/or brings up new candidates late in the cycle should be looked at with extra suspicion. Maybe some people here didn't know better before, but you do now. So no more excuses. He blames town for not voting in a way where he can analyze the vote results. Where does he get off doing this? Even when he talks about the Ace mislynch, notice where the blame lies. He blames Ace for not playing the way he should have. He doesn't admit any fault of his own, he doesn't give an explanation why did a hard hard 180 on someone he called super scummy, and he doesn't even bother trying to draw conclusions about Mr. Wiggles' alignment! He is overly concerned with how he himself is perceived rather than showing any indication of trying to figure out the game. He blames everyone else but makes sure to explain why he deserves none of the blame. He lectures town on how they should behave rather than providing any meaningful contribution / insights, even into the person who swayed him to lynch Ace. Who flipped town. goodkarma is scum | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 21 2013 21:57 GMT
#2437
On March 22 2013 06:17 Vivax wrote: Cosmicomics where did this opinion go? Who will you lynch first tomorrow? Depends on the night results. His behavior and actions aside, VisceraEyes' vet claim is very strong indicator that he isn't scum if it is true. The key phrase is "if it is true". Because this game has a closed setup, we do not know the nature of scum KP. There is no reason to suppose that it should go by standard precedent (in which I suspect 3 initial KP for scum), and with the flip of a role like Nightmare, I don't find it a stretch to think scum were compensated with other forms of KP. Therefore if the night actions suggest that VisceraEyes' claim is indeed valid, then I swallow my pride because it is more likely that VisceraEyes is playing funky than it is for scum to sacrifice one of their KP to fakeclaim vet, and we get down to lynching goodkarma and unfolding things from there. If not, it's tunnel city because there is nothing aside from his claim that I see as reasonable body of evidence that he is town. | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 22 2013 17:34 GMT
#2501
On March 22 2013 15:55 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Wade Fell the Messenger I swallow my pride and admit I was wrong. Looking at the flips, I'm inclined to say that scum have 2KP. I mentioned I expected 3KP because that is what normal games of this size tend to have, not of arbitrary speculation. goodkarma doesn't seem a likely scum kill at all, as there was somewhat a decent amount of suspicion on him. Scum want to keep mislynches around to deflect suspicion and focus off of themselves. I find it more likely that Vivax was the one who offed goodkarma, given that he was adamant about him being scum for a large portion of the game. Wade Fell doesn't seem a likely scum kill given that he is scum. That leaves sciberbia and Vivax as the night kills. 2KP. It seems a very low amount given that we flipped 1 night vig, 1 mason vig and we have 1 living night vig, but it could be that it stays constant or is scaled appropriately. That said I swallow my pride again and say that VisceraEyes' claim is very likely true. That means it is very unlikely that he is scum. Also Wade Fell flipped scum too. Definitely not scum. That said I've lost my primary reads and so I'll be working back up on constructing stronger ones. All there is to say about Mr. Wiggles has already been said. Vote Mr.Wiggles On March 21 2013 03:03 Wade Fell wrote: So I need to do a reread but 90% likely I'll be making a case on either vivax testsubj or wiggles. Probably vivax since testsubj doesn't really seem to be playing any more. lynching WoS or TPS is out of the question at this point and tbh if WoS's claim is true he's gonna get shot anyways along with TPS fairly quickly Not hard evidence, but I think a subtle slip. Brings up 3 subjects to make a case on, addresses the first 2 he named, then brings up 2 more people out of nowhere. I don't mind if it is a wagon between me and Mr. Wiggles. The best kind of lynches are the ones between 1 town and 1 scum. I'll wait until more people take sides before addressing the cases set before me. | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 22 2013 17:34 GMT
#2502
On March 22 2013 17:26 DoYouHas wrote: It should be noted that in my mind the lynching objectives of the 3p, if it exists, should be the same as the towns, given how horrendously fast we are losing this. Because of this I consider VE off the table for today. What is this? | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 23 2013 01:39 GMT
#2539
On March 23 2013 05:18 DoYouHas wrote: Show nested quote + On March 23 2013 02:34 cosmicomics wrote: On March 22 2013 17:26 DoYouHas wrote: It should be noted that in my mind the lynching objectives of the 3p, if it exists, should be the same as the towns, given how horrendously fast we are losing this. Because of this I consider VE off the table for today. What is this? I think it is reasonable to assume that if there is a third party, their win condition would require them to prolong this game. If we keep mislynching, the game ends quickly, the 3rd party doesn't have sufficient time to recruit, less likely they will win. Therefore, I think if there is a 3rd party, their win condition and towns currently line up and so lynching into suspected third party would be a bad idea. What are your thoughts/reads on Geript, DP, and Ryu? Ah. It just threw me off because you were (I think) the first one who suggested that the Mirror was scum. I have reasonable town on geript for this post. On March 16 2013 16:22 Wade Fell wrote: geript is there a particular reason you haven't voted for zarepath since you already rnged him? it seems to me that if you realy wanted to rng your lynch, you'd use the lynch you've already rnged. Why the cold feet? This is a loaded question that comes really early on in the game. How is it loaded? Either geript would have to advocate an rng lynch on zarepath, rng someone else (which is what he tried to do) or stop rng. Not too hard as scum can punish him for any of these options. On March 16 2013 16:42 Wade Fell wrote: Show nested quote + On March 16 2013 16:36 DarthPunk wrote: On March 16 2013 16:22 Wade Fell wrote: geript is there a particular reason you haven't voted for zarepath since you already rnged him? it seems to me that if you realy wanted to rng your lynch, you'd use the lynch you've already rnged. Why the cold feet? Yeah I really like this actually. What Gives? There's no reasonable reason for him NOT to vote zarepath other than that he's protecting his scumbuddy Yea here it is in action. What's his alternative? Continue with the RNG and vote zarepath. Not that hard to call geript scum for that either. Given how early in the day this was (like less than an hour?), I don't think Wade Fell decided to pick apart his scum buddy and soft accuse him of being scum (notice he gives the reasoning but doesn't actually call him scum). Going off of that is DarthPunk On March 18 2013 10:10 DarthPunk wrote: Show nested quote + On March 18 2013 10:07 cosmicomics wrote: On March 18 2013 10:04 DarthPunk wrote: On March 18 2013 09:59 cosmicomics wrote: DarthPunk, in one sentence, do you think I did anything wrong (from my perspective) thus far? How am I supposed to understand your perspective when it is so obviously detached from anything I can identify with? But Obviously I do. Otherwise I wouldn't have voted for you. So you admit that you yourself (innocently) misinterpreted geript's posts, and I'm scummy for thinking that you misinterpreted him? NO you are scummy for sheeping a bad case on me which relied on turning an obvious pressure vote in this very first hour of the game into something more. And then trying to lynch me for it. When it was plain for all to see it was a start of the game pressure vote and nothing more. DESPITE me being wrong about the tarot thing. For DarthPunk to be town, he must be a very stubborn player. That is the only way to reconcile his attitude / posting with townie motivation. So is this town stubborn or scum stubborn? Need to look at other bodies of evidence. His stance on VisceraEyes is really strange. D1 he tried to get him lynched, and also well into D2 but at the end of the day VisceraEyes becomes his least liked wagon. What is disconcerting is that he puts me as a top lynch preference even though I was one of the main proponents of the VisceraEyes wagon. Very strange. Possibly because he is stubborn? I'm on the other side of the fence concerning this post: On March 23 2013 06:29 DarthPunk wrote: Hi guys. I am pretty frustrated with the way I am playing. I was wrong about goodkarma and now I need to go back and figure out why. All my town reads are dead, with the exception of Viscera Eyes who now cannot be scum IMO. I am about to leave I have 2 weddings to go to today. When I get home I'll dig through filters and try and figure out what is going on. So first, if he meant to type "town reads" it would make no sense because that is what usually happens at night. Scum shoot town players and so it's to be expected that your town reads may die. That is a terrible excuse to reconstruct reads. However, town players can make typos too: the second clause indicates that he might have meant "scum reads". He had goodkarma as scum, and maybe Vivax as scum too, and having the carpet pulled under you like that is a good reason to reconstruct reads. I still have to do some (meta) research to figure out if he is OMGUS stubborn type town. Neutral (not null) until I can do more homework as his play (I think) can be adequately explained by scum motivations or stubborn OMGUSing townie. RyuSuzaku To be honest I haven't paid too much attention on him either. Glancing at his filter he had basically the same perspective as me with the VisceraEyes ordeal, and so I think his posts after the night kills will serve as strong indicators if he was honestly mistaken or just pretending to be. I.e. I need to do some homework on him too. | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 23 2013 04:58 GMT
#2546
On March 23 2013 11:10 TestSubject893 wrote: EBWOP: Somehow I missed the first line in the second section about geript. I see now what that section is meant to say. I'm still not super happy about it though. Why defend geript right now? DoYouHas asked me for my thoughts and reads and that is what I gave. What is your primary concern that you are voting for me? | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 23 2013 17:10 GMT
#2557
This is his initial response to GreYMisT flipping town. On March 19 2013 05:34 RyuSuzaku wrote: well, that sucks. I was pretty convinced GM was scum given how suspicious he was acting. Pretty disappointing play from him, especially given his incredibly strong role. Obviously I was wrong, but I'm town and I had completely valid reasons for attacking GM. Read pages 36~41 for context and the general types of responses people had to the flip. RyuSuzaku responds in a vastly different way. He goes out of his way to defend himself, even though there was no pressure on him for being wrong. Whether he had "valid reasons" or not doesn't matter, it's his attitude in this post that is out of place. Notice the focus he brings upon himself - "I was convinced ... I was wrong ... I'm town ... I had valid reasons". And the context indicates no pressure at all. Which suggests that this post betrays a mentality of inherent guilt. In the same exact post we see him addressing DoYouHas' and VisceraEyes' suspicions. On March 19 2013 05:34 RyuSuzaku wrote: (referring to DoYouHas) Sadly I can't tell whether you are saying these things as a scum trying to push responsibility for a mislynch, or as a townie who is just bad. (referring to VisceraEyes) Why are you cherry picking me? Are you scum? Again, a very defensive posture, where he wants to call them scum without actually bringing forth an accusation. I mean, what kind of response do you expect when asking "Are you scum?" It's rhetorical in nature. There is a pretty good dialogue between him and VisceraEyes when he actually follows up (read page 41). That's all I got so far since much of what I suspect depends on how he posts today, especially concerning what his new stance on VisceraEyes is, but we can start by talking about this. | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 23 2013 19:20 GMT
#2571
On March 21 2013 12:09 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ace is very quick to spam the idea that VE is third party and that he has to be the lynch, as shown in these posts: + Show Spoiler + On March 21 2013 01:24 Ace wrote: lynch VE. now. On March 21 2013 01:38 Ace wrote: your right, it's not like a claimed Vet is a confirmed Town sure to get shot because he is running around popping Scum and didn't just say he accepted an invite from 3rd party. Stop being ridiculous. On March 21 2013 01:42 Ace wrote: I dont have one, and I don't think it's important right now.Lynch VE. On March 21 2013 01:47 Ace wrote: Who CARES if he is a Vet? He just posted logs of him joining a 3rd party and even said fuck the Town. This isn't hard. On March 21 2013 01:52 Ace wrote: Stop talking about other people and stay focused on one person at a time. Jesus I don't want to have to teach people how to play my first game back in months. Just dealwith VE now. Re-read the log: He accepted to join a 3rd party that clearly doesn't have interest in helping the Town. Whether VE is still Townis irrelevant: whatever powers he gets or grants to the 3rd party isn't going to help us. Lynch him now. Treat him like a self aware Miller and just solve the problem immediately. Within 30 minutes, Ace has posted 5 times reinforcing that VE is third-party and has to be lynched. In later posts, he continues to overplay the threat of VE that he has established, saying that he has extra powers, that he's unkillable, and that we'd have an unlynchable anti-town player at one point. These don't provide any additional reasons for why VE is scum, instead they only help scare town into thinking VE will become some unstoppable third party if he's left alive. Where did Ace do any of this? | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 24 2013 05:37 GMT
#2606
On March 24 2013 07:45 RyuSuzaku wrote: also one thing I forgot to mention is that I would expect a town-VE right now to be crying about the lack of activity. Instead, he seems to be completely content with letting the thread die, which is very uncharacteristic of his town play. So you calling him scum or what? How is he culpable of "letting the thread die"? | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 24 2013 20:19 GMT
#2620
On March 24 2013 14:41 RyuSuzaku wrote: Show nested quote + On March 24 2013 14:37 cosmicomics wrote: On March 24 2013 07:45 RyuSuzaku wrote: also one thing I forgot to mention is that I would expect a town-VE right now to be crying about the lack of activity. Instead, he seems to be completely content with letting the thread die, which is very uncharacteristic of his town play. So you calling him scum or what? How is he culpable of "letting the thread die"? Yes, I am calling him scum. Read my posts. While I agree with you on behavioral analysis, that means that scum chose only to use 1KP so VisceraEyes could fake claim vet status or that they have some really really weird KP formula. How do you think last night's KP went down? | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 24 2013 20:20 GMT
#2621
On March 25 2013 01:29 Kenpachi wrote: hes a case of wifom where i'd take the wine. Say, lets look at it this way. Those that voted VE could have had a freepass to look town so BH attacks him for being 3rd party. EASY way for mafia to gain credibility for doing what is best for town. Now, I certainly did not expect a BH hit, and mafia probably did not either so cosmicomics is a fair bet for mafioso. So look at the VE wagon again. also btw zarepath, you have been looking irresolute the entire game with posts like these Show nested quote + On March 24 2013 21:12 zarepath wrote: I know I was voting for cosmicomics, but after reading Wiggles' filter I'd thought he wouldn't be that bad of a lynch, either. Honestly, that guy needs to flip soon. It seems as though nobody is really willing to talk about him. Does anybody have a town read on him, and why? grats, you were also one of 3 to vote Wiggles on Day 2.. I never considered VisceraEyes 3rd party, stop lying. Additionally, the 3 of 4 main wagons on day 2 were town. Ace (8), goodkarma (3) and Mr. Wiggles (3) and VisceraEyes (6). There's no logical reason why anyone should expect scum to be especially on the VisceraEyes' wagon. There's more sense that scum would want Ace dead because they know they can push VisceraEyes later because it is an "EASY way for mafia to gain credibility", and so by your reasoning people should be looking at Ace's wagon. You are trying to get me lynched without actually calling me scum so that if I do you don't take any responsibility and you can blame the poor sap who happened to bite. | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 24 2013 20:26 GMT
#2622
On March 24 2013 13:46 DarthPunk wrote: Show nested quote + On March 24 2013 13:45 RyuSuzaku wrote: On March 24 2013 12:36 DarthPunk wrote: Heya I'm back and reading the thread. Once again there is a really weak push onto me for no reason. Good times. On March 24 2013 12:21 RyuSuzaku wrote: I find that DP hasn't done as much as he normally does as town. When THIS is the stated reason that someone wants to lynch me when I have a 9 page filter and the person claiming I am not doing enough to be town has a 2 page filter something s wrong. who cares? Size of filter does not correlate with contribution. In fact, you look even worse for the fact that you have so many posts yet I can't remember a single one of them, despite at some point reading them all. The same could be said for your posts with me. Anyway I think it's your problem because many others have had town reads on me. How is this meaningful? | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 24 2013 20:59 GMT
#2624
On March 25 2013 05:27 geript wrote: @Cosmic I don't think VE would be crazy enough to do that. After listening to the podcast he seems to have a distinct plan going through his head and leaving good players alive doesn't make any sense in that regard. Besides, earlier VE seemed off and was bouncing around which was very different from how he played in LX, but in reviewing his previous games that's something he's done previously as town. How do you feel about Glurio and WoS? Yea I don't either, just trying to understand where RyuSuzaku is coming from. I have a decent town read on glurio based on his defense of kitaman27's case against him. They way he addresses the case is a simple line by line bullet points, and the style seems very loose and off the top of his head. I went through his filter to double check the facts and his explanations, and they all fit very well, which highly suggests town when coupled with the style he wrote it. While his read on me is founded upon not the most solid reasoning - "Both Vivax and sciberia were suspicious of him at the end of the night. High likelihood of being scum.", I don't see it a malicious usage, and a quite understandable one a newer town player might make. I'm inclined to believe WaveofShadow's claim. I think he is blue. I don't find it too strange that he isn't dead tonight given that scum with roleblocker is pretty much expected and there is no reason to spend precious KP to shoot WaveofShadow and confirm another townie with his check when you can just roleblock him and WIFOM later. | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 25 2013 01:29 GMT
#2629
Also, could I get your thoughts on glurio? | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 25 2013 03:16 GMT
#2635
On March 25 2013 11:36 WaveofShadow wrote: If we lose 3 more townies tonight I'm pretty sure we're fucked. You mean 2? Or do you have a different interpretation of last nights KP? | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 25 2013 03:17 GMT
#2636
| ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 25 2013 03:21 GMT
#2638
On March 22 2013 08:07 Vivax wrote: Coag do you like my [scum] reads? (from a prior post: zarepath, cosmicomics, Wade Fell, goodkarma, DoYouHas, TranceStorm) On March 22 2013 08:08 Coagulation wrote: remove wade fell and add wiggles and they are acceptable. I would probably add ryu and take out zerap also. And Coagulation as well. Need fresh updates. | ||
cosmicomics
81 Posts
March 25 2013 03:27 GMT
#2639
On March 25 2013 11:18 kitaman27 wrote: So I just reread the entire thread from the start with the flips in mind because we're clearly not seeing the big picture here. I also read the entire filters of each player (some players more than once). The downside of spending three hours reading is that it leaves absolutely no time to make a case, but I'm quite confidant that cosmic is scum. I think I'm more sure of this, than the glurio case and will post a case tomorrow about why I believe so. Unfortunately, if I'm hit tonight, this leaves you guys with the WIFOM of whether or not I was hit because I shared my intentions, but at this point I'm think there is a strong enough chance of cosmic flipping mafia that I'd rather share it than take it to my grave. I disagree with your assessment of him kenpachi and I ask that everyone take a good look at his filters. Cool. Don't know why you would spend a paragraph playing out the WIFOM yourself but whatever. Do you still think glurio is scum? You were pretty quick to drop it, unlike the WaveofShadow case. | ||
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