I believe TPS has promised some actual activity today so I'm interested to see how that turns out.
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WaveofShadow
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I believe TPS has promised some actual activity today so I'm interested to see how that turns out. | ||
WaveofShadow
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GG town. | ||
WaveofShadow
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I honestly see no reason I should open myself up to targeting when the fairweather townies roll in with 12 hours left in the day to go to write up a fucking huge massive case. I'll put forth the effort when I feel enough people are around for us actually stand a chance today. Fuck the apparent town or anti-town motivation of this post. | ||
WaveofShadow
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Either way I didn't get any PMs from DrH so once again, I don't see how any of it matters. | ||
WaveofShadow
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k. | ||
WaveofShadow
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There are still way too many people that have yet to show their faces during a LYLO day and that on its own is pretty much the scummiest thing you could ask for. What better way to ensure town loses than to not show up? Later on this evening I'll be back to give Zare what he wants and talk a little. | ||
WaveofShadow
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On March 28 2013 15:59 DarthPunk wrote: OK. If I get shot tonight here is what you do. Lynch Ryu and Kita. If Kita doesn't die tonight he is basically guaranteed to be scum. plus all the stuff with Blazinghand and flying under the radar. If Wave of Shadow doesn't die tonight he is scum and needs to be lynched. Zarepath, geript, glurio, TPS and test subject are all probably town. They are lynchbait and have been kept around for that very reason. DO NOT LYNCH INTO THEM! DO NOT LISTEN TO THE BULLSHIT THAT RYU IS SPEWING. Find out who WoS checked. See if it makes sense. I can almost guarantee that it will be zarepath. and that Either: Zarepath will die and flip green. Not die and WoS will get roleblocked. If you get a red check out of nowhere. DO NOT BLINDLY FOLLOW IT. It is most likely MYLO at that point. If you get a red check on Zarepath. LYNCH WoS. GLHF and GG kids <3 I want to hear what people have to say regarding DP's dying words. | ||
WaveofShadow
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I'm very surprised that DP was actually able to pick out that zare was my investigation target for last night; I'm not entirely sure how he did it since I didn't base any of my earlier investigation targets on who I was mainly targeting during the day. I'm especially interested because it must mean that DP has some solid insights into my play and perhaps the play of others, except for the whole fact that, ya know, I'm not scum. I was also debating a gambit where I essentially lied about being not being roleblocked in order to fake a red check on whoever my top scumread would be for the day, which may or may not have worked despite DP apparently foreseeing me doing something like that---I doubt I would have been able to keep people from tunneling me if they sniffed out the lie however (ie Geript). I'm going to be around for the next little bit and tomorrow as well so I will do my very best to help out in any way that I can; I'm sorry my role has been useless (and potentially harmful if TPS does in fact flip red at some point) this game. For now I vote DoYouHas because as I see it, there is absolutely no excuse for being useless at LYLO unless you want town to lose; that remains the clearest thing to me right now amidst a sea of suspicion. Vote: DoYouHas | ||
WaveofShadow
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If you think zare is scummy what about his posting has made you feel that way, because that is the one thing that appears to be missing for me to pin him as scum. | ||
WaveofShadow
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WaveofShadow
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Fuck Ryu and kita, fuck glurio, fuck me and everyone else who you people think are potentially scummy thus far (for now) because I have a sure scum lynch today. This case is gonna take me a while but I'm thinking this might be my best one yet. (Thank goodness) | ||
WaveofShadow
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Alright well aside from the obvious reason I'm voting him right now (no excuses for being afk with 12 hours left to LYLO - esepcially since he has been somewhat active every other day of this game) I have a whole bunch more. Let's begin, shall we? Day 1 On March 17 2013 11:46 DoYouHas wrote: BH, I said I hadn't looked into GK's meta yet (thanks for providing links). I do think layabout/kita/wiggles have all made valid points against him. I'm withholding my vote until I go through the meta and his promised case. Right now I'm taking a break for food and TV. But when I come back from that my first order of business is to get my thoughts on zarepath out since that looks like it might get some traction. After that I will get my thoughts straight on GK and stop this 'maybe i will, maybe i won't' crap. This is the best summary anyone can give of his play throughout the entirety of Day 1. Makes a whole bunch of noncommittal reads on a whole bunch of people while never coming out and saying anything regarding them actually being scum, just stuff like: + Show Spoiler + On March 17 2013 11:03 DoYouHas wrote: - TPS needs to come back and address more than just Coag. BH's points are not enough to get my vote at the moment, but his case gets stronger the longer TPS isn't posting. - My second read-through has me agreeing with Kita, Layabout, and MrWiggles' points against GK, that is where my vote is going if my opinion doesn't change after looking into the meta that BH brought up and after reading GK's promised case. - Greymist's lack of recent posting is disturbing. First he says: But what does he actually post in his 'active period'? Considering the number of people that find him suspicious, i would think GM would be more inclined to post than he is showing. - I am also suspicious of Zarepath, Vivax, and Ryu. More on them later, I don't want to split my focus too much. On March 17 2013 07:15 DoYouHas wrote: Scib caught my eye with his first post against geript + Show Spoiler + On March 16 2013 17:23 sciberbia wrote: I've got some stuff to say about geript The first possibly important thing I noticed in the thread. The phrasing of the first sentence as a question instead of a statement seems a bit odd to me. It's like he's saying "Would you find this explanation acceptable?" rather than "This is the explanation." Seems unnecessarily passive and ingratiating. This rubs me a bit the wrong way. Seems like a crummy reason to go to bed. People accuse you of being mafia so you go to bed? What? Also, seems like he's almost providing an 'excuse' to leave the thread. Overall, leaning scum on geript. I don't think it is especially likely that zarepath and geript are both scum. If zarepath and geript actually were scumbuddies, I think there is an excellent chance that geript would have either gone through with the RNG vote (with the knowledge that it is very unlikely to lead to a lynch and with the devious hope that town would later get confused by WIFOM), or just drop the RNG thing all-together. I don't really have a conclusion to this, Scib's other posts don't raise red flags for me and what I have is not enough to turn him scum. I just want to hear more from Scib. His first solid scumread is on Zarepath but his reasoning completely lacks substance. On March 18 2013 08:57 DoYouHas wrote: Vote: zarepath Something that has been bothering me for a while now is how zarepath has been put on the back-burner. Similar to how people are dealing with Coag but with much less reason. With the exception of Vivax, nobody has really defending zare. It is like everyone took a look at the points against zare and said, "yeah, that does look bad, let's move on". Am I alone in thinking that it is suspicious that there was so little opposition to us pushing zare, yet it gained so little traction? Obviously some townies just prefer their own choice and are going to push it. But I can't shake the feeling that zare is getting pushed off the consideration table, not because he is a worse candidate, but because scum are invested in changing the focus. I know that above paragraph isn't super logical, it is my intuition. But when I pair it with the points made earlier by myself and scib I definitely want to lynch zarepath today. He even acknowledges himself that this post makes no sense yet still points heavy suspicion in red and Zare and yet fails to vote for him. That's real commitment right thurr. He then appears to realize this probably isn't good enough so he resorts to filter diving, making sure rather than consolidating he has to appear like he's doing something. On March 18 2013 09:56 DoYouHas wrote: Here are a bunch of zarepath's past filters, let's get to digging: This Town Ain't Big Enough VT NMMXXXVII VT NMMXXXVI VT And if you dig really far back you get his 1 scum game, which also happens to be the first game I played on TL as well. I don't know how well his scum meta would have held up as this game is more than a year old (Jan. 2012), and he has played a fair bit since. NMMIII Goon Like, why make this post without actually giving us some information about these games? "Guys look at me! I'm looking into my scumread's meta! Look at how helpful I'm being!" + Show Spoiler + On March 18 2013 12:07 DoYouHas wrote: I did find some interesting corroborating evidence in his meta, but I also ran into a some frustration in the form of his old scum game that I can't decide whether or not is a good heuristic. I can't really compare activity between his past games and this one because we know that he can't be as active on weekends, and that has cut down his post count for this day 1. What I looked at was tone. Hopeless, Scib, and I all separately took issue with the tone of zarepath's posts. Hopeless thought that he seemed like he was looking for things to say, stances to take. Scib thought that his heart wasn't in it, that he was producing generic pro-town advice to fake being town. I said that I felt like his scumhunting felt shallow, that he was shuffling players into his suspicions using silly categories. That kind of critique could not be made of the day1 posts of those 3 town games I linked earlier. In those games his tone is very active, even when he is uncertain (Clicky). Note that in that post his tone is completely different than what we have seen in this game, it looks like he isn't just commenting, he is participating. The one big thing I would draw your attention to in that post is that he states, "My reads are all very close to null at this point on everyone. ". At this point in that game he has even fewer solid reads than he has shown in this one. And yet, his tone is so incredibly superior. The frustration comes with his really old scum game. Some things fit: the posting of generic pro-town advice, the passive tone in a lot of his posts. Other things do not: the bold strokes of suggesting an rng lynch right off the bat, the hard defense of the day1 townie lynch, and the way he responds to slOosh's case. I can't decide whether or not to throw out this game because of it's age or to leave it in there and just have it be a non-alignment indicative piece of evidence. tl;dr - I think zarepath's meta supports him being scum this game mainly by analyzing tone. (PS. Please check me on all this, I don't want to be screwed by confirmation bias.) Here he gets to the meta analysis. What do we learn from this heavy analysis that he does (to me it looked like he only read the first post of each game, but whatever)? Nothing at all. He is fine to tell us that the meta makes zare look scummy but his own analysis he says is inconclusive based on his scumgame evidence being way too old. Why bother bringing it up? When someone makes a case they're either trying to get discussion going about a target or they're trying to paint him as scum and get the town to vote for him. DYH finds a way to be wishy-washy enough to do neither and both and the same time. He eventually votes for Zare who appears to be his top scumread but then at the beginning of Night 2 decides to just dump all of that by the wayside and focus on blaming Ryu's case causing the mislynch of GreYMisT. Night 1 Not much to say here. Accuses me of scumslipping, admits it's weak, backs off. Calls out Ryu, admits it's weak, backs off. Day 2 Keir is killed, immediately drops his scumread on Zare. I sense a pattern here! Today is interesting because this is the BH blue-claim. Apart from his very first post on the matter, DYH seems to have no opinion regarding BH whatsoever. He treads extremely carefully every time BH is mentioned so much so that it stands out to me. Refuses to acknowledge whether he believes BH is town or scum. On March 20 2013 05:05 DoYouHas wrote: @Vivax - You are ignoring the obvious explanation for the supposed slip you are trying to nail BH with. "Okay so the hosts are dragging their feet with setting up the Mason QT(So BH made one himself) so I'll drop some stuff in here(here being the QT BH just made) since I have to step out for a moment." It is far more probable than your theory that BH made a QT, the hosts were made aware of it, and they just stuck with that QT for the BH-GK masoning. The slip you found simply isn't. @WOS You are supposing that BH, GK, and possibly VE all coordinated enough to create these false logs, yet you don't think they could have changed the timestamps to make the exchange look more genuine? If you think the logs are faked, analyzing the timestamps like you are is worthless. He soft defends BH all day while being very careful not to mention his own thoughts on BH's alignment. This post is but one example of him Chainsawing VE. On March 21 2013 07:21 DoYouHas wrote: So here is an interesting thing, VE. If you think that there is a decent chance that The Mirror is scum, why are you still pushing the idea that BH is scum mason. Do you really think that mafia have 2 masoning roles? Here again, knowing what we now know this looks incredibly scummy. Another soft defense while at the same time being very careful to discredit VE at the same time. On March 21 2013 08:44 DoYouHas wrote: 1. - WoS's claim is the scummiest claim possible. 2 sentences later, it is about as good as it gets for scum. Either we have two very different interpretations as to what those things mean, or you just said that WoS's claim is both very bad and very good, barely a breath apart. Not to mention the ridiculously begrudging language you are using to describe believing the claim. Strike 1. 2. - VE was on the scum list? Go into that more please. What originally caught your eye about VE? Did you have an opinion on cosmic's case? Who else besides VE and BH are on this scumlist? Does it bother you that the person you are voting for was tunneling your most consistent scumread (BH) for the better part of a day? You seem to agree with me about 'The Mirror' not adding up. Why would you state your 'most likely' scenario without even referring to the extended conversation VE and I just had about possible explanations. Again you use the phrase 'no choice' as if you want no part in the blame for the VE lynch if it happens. YOU THINK that the most likely scenario has VE as an anti-town role, YOU cast your vote. Justify it, explain your logic, lead us in your thinking. If you have a most likely scenario, that means you considered less likely scenarios. What were they? by what criteria did you dismiss them? Strike 2. 3. - You have a huge scum tell on BH, this scum tell is that he hasn't been consistently referring to you in his top scum reads while you essentially haven't been playing the game. This is your only reasoning. This isn't a case, this doesn't convince anyone you are right that are not already thinking BH is scum. You want to take the firm stance on BH, but you don't want to do the work, that is scummy. Strike 3. Vote: TestSubject893 PS. Sorry to hear about your RL issues, but you are scum. Oh look, another soft defense of BH. His entire effort on Day 2 is dedicated to pushing VE and pressuring him while at the same time defending BH to keep him in the game as long as possible. Even more interesting is the ridiculous chainsaw he pulls on TestSubject after the spammy interaction between Test and BH. Hasn't VE been DYH's main scumread and focus all day? So why is it that when Testsubject appears to agree with him, he immediately changes his vote?? In keeping with the DYH theme, he gets called out for making a bad case once more and not 2 hours later, he realizes how scummy that vote switch makes him look and he changed it to an easy target, Wiggles. On March 21 2013 10:38 DoYouHas wrote: I don't think there is a 3rd party in this game. The reason everyone starting jumping on VE is because he left his acceptance line in the logs, right? That means that everyone who initially jumped on VE is accepting that the 3rd party recruiting mechanic is based off getting players to choose an option that is against their current faction's win condition. I can't be the only one that finds that ridiculous in general and not at all likely for a 'normal' game? In fact, can anyone give me a 3rd party recruitment mechanic that doesn't involve standard press-ganging of people from their current faction that actually makes sense in the context of what was in those logs and isn't ridiculous to the point of not possibly being in a 'normal' game? And if the recruitment mechanic is in some way a press-gang mechanic, how is that supported at all by the log or the context? But what if VE was recruited from the start and they faked the logs? Not possible, if VE was recruited from the start we never would have gotten the initial post where he says he has been contacted by The Mirror. There are only 2 explanations that actually work with the given information. 1. VE is scum and fabricated the whole thing. I don't think this is true because it would be a high effort, high risk, low reward move. He had just claimed Vet, adding this on top doesn't make sense. 2. The Mirror is a mafia mason, and used that power to spread misinformation. It explains why the recruitment mechanics don't add up. It explains why VE was chosen, he had just outed the first person who masoned him. It explains why The Mirror didn't seem to care after VE outed him. I still have my couple points that don't add up pre-3p that pointed to VE being scummy, but if I am right about the 3p situation, and I think I am, it trumps all of my earlier suspicions. VE is town. I'm moving my vote to Wiggles, who seems to be the only other viable option. Unvote: TestSubject893 Vote: Mr. Wiggles The bolded section is pretty huge. Aside from DYH now flip-flopping to defend VE (again, not scummy on its own) despite jumping on the bandwagon for the exact same reason he is now calling others out for, look at his explanations for possible scenarios. He knows who the mafia mason is, and sees a perfect opportunity to deflect the threat. It also gives him an opportunistic explanation of the mafia mason role but in doing so, HE SCUMSLIPS. What he is describing is exactly the opposite of what occurred with BH after VE outed him to make him look completely different from what the ACTUAL scum mason did. BH got outed by VE who cared enough to risk a fake-claim, and by saying that a scum mason wouldn't care about that he attempts to get the heat off BH once again. Also take into account his prior knowledge of VE being town, and that there are very obviously more than 2 explanations as to what works with the 'given information' but DYH chooses to omit those other explanations; something scum needs to do. DYH's ENTIRE DAY 2 IS DEDICATED TO DEFENDING BH. Good rationale for your Wiggles vote btw, DYH. On March 21 2013 12:42 DoYouHas wrote: I like your case on Ace, MrWiggles, I like it a lot. It also doesn't hurt that you happen to agree with me on the scum mason thing. Unvote: Mr. Wiggles Vote: Ace To add to your point of him trying to get us to talk about fruitless subjects here is an exchange that could very well have been exactly that: + Show Spoiler + On March 19 2013 16:05 DoYouHas wrote: Gotta say, that instantly makes me like a zarepath lynch much less. On March 19 2013 16:06 Ace wrote: why? On March 19 2013 16:12 Ace wrote: How does Keirathi's death paint zarepath as innocent? On March 19 2013 16:26 DoYouHas wrote: Yes, my thinking could be reduced to WIFOM but here it is anyways. Scum priorities for NKs tend to fall along what threatens them the most balanced with a risk/reward assessment. If zare is scum, then the people threatening him right now are myself, Scib, and Vivax (off the top of my head). Vivax might be slightly less of a threat, as people have repeatedly ignored some of the things he says. But both Scib and I are extremely hard lynches at the moment, being considered townie by practically all of the thread (if I have read correctly). This makes Scib and I, and to a lesser degree, Vivax, logical targets IF zarepath is scum, and IF he was feeling the pressure. BH is another logical target if his roleclaim is true (I think it is, but can't be 100% sure). Now consider possible Medic protections. BH has claimed blue which could likely pull a medic's attention. Scib is probably the most townie and biggest threat in general, also a good chance of protection. But that still leaves myself and Vivax as pretty safe targets. Yes, this is WIFOM, but if I was scum this is how I would sift possible targets IF I was worried about zare getting lynched D2. Instead we get a Keirathi kill. A good kill because he is a solid town player, but by killing a replacement player who had very little time to put forth his opinions my guess is that scum is less worried about the track town is currently on, and more worried about a new voice providing a course correction. Ace tried to get responses from scib and I that lay out WIFOM thinking that is generally unhelpful, and could potentially waste the time of town if it hadn't been shut down quickly by BH and Moc after I indulged. There are other explanations, but for any of them to work Ace would have had to follow through with his questions in one form or another, he does not. Sigh, another lame vote switch. DYH isn't even trying to hide it now. Day 3 + Show Spoiler + On March 22 2013 17:26 DoYouHas wrote: Ok, so I checked in to see the flips right after the deadline, shut off my computer, and tried to go to sleep because I need to get up early tomorrow. I couldn't sleep, the flips have given me a sudden clarity to my reads and my brain wouldn't stop going. I think I have greatly narrowed the number of suspects. -Testsubject: Claimed the vigi hit on BH, no reason to disbelieve. Town. -VE - At this point he is as close to guaranteed not-mafia as we are ever going to get, town or 3p. -Zarepath - Very likely to be town. The quality of his posts has been going up as the game progresses and I just don't see how scum zarepath posts this about me. -WoS & TPS: I believe WoS's claim, but even if I didn't I would take him off the table for today's lynch because of it. Also, TPS seems cleared both by WoS's check and the fact that he was BH's first choice of tunnel. -kitaman27: Seems quite townie to me. I don't know if anybody would disagree with me on this point. -layabout: Similar to kita in my mind, if a little less verbose, town or 3p. -Coag and Kenpachi: I read both as town, possible 3p. It should be noted that in my mind the lynching objectives of the 3p, if it exists, should be the same as the towns, given how horrendously fast we are losing this. Because of this I consider VE off the table for today. That is 10/17 people who's opinion I think I can trust (including my own). This narrows my field of search to just 7 names: DP, Trance, glurio, CC, geript, Ryu, and Wiggles. Some of which I find scummy, some of which I am null on currently, and some of which I just haven't looked into enough. And no, I'm not going to say which is which. I've shot myself in the foot using this kind of reasoning before when I thought I had the whole scumteam pegged. But really I was 2/4, and in my attempts to convict them all I alienated the 2 townies in the group, lost their votes and had the lynch manipulated to the wrong target. If you disagree strongly with the people in either of these groups, I want to hear it. But if I am not completely out of touch with this game, and I correctly identified most of the townies, and those same townies also see it this way, we just created a majority, so long as we can actually work together to pick the best lynch candidate. Remember, if you are in my second group, I'm not calling you scum yet, and clearly I would be wrong about at least 3 of you. I want your comments too. I want to refine this list of reads until scum have nowhere left to hide. Hopefully I will be able to sleep now that I have gotten this out of my head. Gnight. WIFOM out the fucking wazoo. What the hell is this list even supposed to accomplish? He says he has narrowed the list of suspects yet he lists half the players in the game, calls some town, some 3rd party despite the fact that HE ASSUMED THERE WAS NO 3RD PARTY YESTERDAY. Of his supposed scum list 2 have already flipped town. On March 23 2013 07:10 DoYouHas wrote: What is making DP stick out to me (and why I need to look into him more) is that I'm getting a disconnect from when I played with him in Witchcraft. I was scum and he was town. In Witchcraft he was still abrasive, but he was also constructive. By the end of day1 he had established himself as townie, second only to Hapa. I wasn't the only one who felt like that either, in Witchcraft people voted in town power roles, we killed DP because it was clear that the town sentiment leaned towards him being town enough that we were comfortable shooting him with a silver bullet (we were right, he died). I have not seen that active, pro-town DP from Witchcraft this game. I encourage you to take a look at that game. Also, he has 9 pages of filter and I feel like I know very little about where he stands. Maybe that is just me being inattentive, but it might be a signal that he is flying under the radar. He appears to start zoning into his supposed scumlist but once again, DYH says a lot while saying absolutely nothing. Flings suspicion around and then once again, 3 posts later: On March 23 2013 08:10 DoYouHas wrote: Yeah... I'm pretty confident that DP is actually town. Unlike Wiggles, DP actually looks better for the BH flip. He has more than a few interactions with BH that seem very genuine. The way he defends himself is solid, the way he pursued his WoS suspicion but then is ready to drop it after WoS's claim. The way he interacted with Scib and went after layabout. Everything reads pretty townie. @Kenpachi - What are your reasons for having DP as one of your top scum reads? Has DYH even dropped a solid scumread with some evidence to back it up all game? All he has been doing the entire game is throwing suspicion around, waiting to be proved wrong and flip-flopping his reads. He has flown under the radar mostly because he has actually attempted to make it look like he is contributing, and doing a much better job of it than many of the other people we have found scummy this game. + Show Spoiler + On March 25 2013 14:34 DoYouHas wrote: @DP - I think it is safe to say that VE was town when BH masoned him. The logical way for a townie mason to operate is to mason other townies to improves scumhunting. Masoning scumreads is only likely to get you killed. Because of this I think it is reasonable to assume that BH would choose townies to start off with, that way he could justify his choices if he had to claim and would also have 2 townies that would likely be on his side because he was 'right' and discussed in-thread action with them. Also, the sequence of events just seems unbelievable for scum to make up. VE starts with a super-spotlight grabbing idea (SAST), follows it with revealing BH as a mason, then claims vet, then reveals a 3p with the acceptance line in it. The way that VE has pursued scum reads has sometimes been scummy, but almost everything else surrounding him points to town/3p. Right now what concerns me the most are the people who have been coming in from time to time with large, thought out, persuasive posts. Unfortunately that is not a small group this game. I refuse to believe that even this town has utterly failed to provide any good analysis on people. So when I see that over the course of day2 we managed to put forth 3 townies and 1 probable townie as the lynch options, I have to think that town is being manipulated. My advice if I happen to die tonight is to treat tomorrow like a second day1. Wipe the slate clean for everyone, IE your town/scum leanings, and proceed as if it was day1 with a ton of source material to talk about. We are all making assumptions that are screwing us, let go of your current scum reads, look at the game with fresh eyes, and see if you come to the same conclusion or if someone new sticks out to you even more. Hmm. So he identifies the problem as the people who ahve come in, made massive posts and disappeared. In other words, not him. He also slips nicely here; in the first part of the second paragraph he asks us to wipe our slates clean and then he only asks us to drop our scum reads. That's pretty suspicious. Who are our scumreads at this point in the day that we need to eliminate, and why only the scumreads? On March 25 2013 14:16 Coagulation wrote: ryu and geript are who im looking at for lynch tomorrow. I dont think WOS has faked his claim. Kenpachi looks legit cosmicomic im 50/50 on I dont really know if anything I have seen makes him scummy. doyouhas is flying low. kita has also been flying real low. Hes ignoring me alot too I dunno why. Same with Dbz. Only people who are not ignoring me are people who never played with me before. anyway im town. I know it looks like shit that I wanted to lynch wiggles but I honestly considered him a good chance to flip scum. On March 25 2013 14:15 DarthPunk wrote: Hi I've been reading the thread but to be honest I am pretty disheartened with the whole situation. For what it's worth I have a solid town read on Wave of shadow. Somethings I didn't;t like recently. This is the second time Viscera Eyes has said something similar to this and just disappeared afterwards. These false promises of activity are really scummy. VE was a really really solid scum read of mine until his claim. I think it would have been retarded to fake claim by holding back KP day one. But not impossible. He is a question that needs to be solved. But honestly I am too worried about mislynching to take a risk on VE. Maybe he is the best choice. IDK. The other thing I didn;t like was this. These kind of posts are super weird after we mislynched again. When I mislynch three times in a row my confidence is shot. I double and triple think every read because I am worried about mis-lynching again. So when people come straight out after a mislynch like that fearlessly wanting to lynch into lynch bait. It worries me immensely. Could it be that DYH was swooping in to make us drop our reads because we're finally onto something? I'm not sure honestly, that's WIFOM. Once again he does make a nice show of trying to be the voice of reason here despite the fact that he's done nothing in 2 days. DYH's final efforts before disappearing for the day have been a push on layabout, calling him 3rd party despite the fact that he didn't originally believe the role existed (or was that just to protect BH? I guess he can't get his stories straight). I don't want to make an association case here but it certainly looks as though scum are actually starting to worry about the 3rd party issue here and are trying to eliminate it as a threat (which they succeeded at, apparently) but guessed partially wrong. One of the hardest pushes DYH has made in days and it's on layabout? This late in the game I think we come down to the crux of the issue. It makes absolutely no sense to bus this late in the game therefore I legitimately believe that DYH and layabout MUST have different alignments; that DYH is scum and layabout was converted town. At this point in the game DYH was attempting to be that 'little voice of reason' he has attempted to make a big show of all game, and he disappeared long before the cc flip to avoid any suspicion if cc did flip town. He didn't even need to consolidate with the rest of his team who had apparently decided that cc was much more dangerous as 3rd party OR town than layabout. And so we come to the end of it. If anyone has anything to add to this case, PLEASE do so, and if anyone has any critiques by all means, bring them. We are need of a strong case today and I would like to hope that this one can be it; whether it needs to be helped along or torn down is up for discussion now. Summary: DoYouHas has constantly and consistently flown under the radar. He has made no consistent reads without WIFOMing them to hell all on his own and has made a great show of attempting to contribute to discussion when all he does is derail it and add no useful information himself. We have 12 hours to go at LYLO and he has not shown himself. DoYouHas is scum and must be lynched today. | ||
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On March 30 2013 05:12 ThePeashooter wrote: DYH is not scum and I won't be voting for him. Really? That's all you can give me? Reasoning? On March 29 2013 14:23 ThePeashooter wrote: Anyway moving on. I was planning on writing a big case, but I know this is going to give me sick amounts of joy. If you would all direct yourself to the bolded. Zarepath is scum. This is a classic "Hold off on X for now" and then redirecting the lynch. I just spent an hour comparing timestamps and if you look closely it lines up with when the lynch train got diverted off Zare when he was surely about to die. A scum BH would have literally no incentive to soft protect Zare from being a Day 1 lynch. He followed it up by hard pushing greymist. I know poor little BH can't respond, but it's going to give me immense satisfaction by spending the entire game day using his own posts to rape his entire scum team. Hey so...12 hours left, WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU WAITING FOR. You spent 6 hours reading the thread and all you have time for is to exchange pithy comments with Kenpachi and ask questions to people who clearly aren't responding? For somebody who has been pretty condescending all game of other people's playstyles yours is fucking awful. You told me earlier if we were at LYLO you were actually going to put forth effort to help us win this game but so far I haven't seen it. | ||
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On March 29 2013 14:39 WaveofShadow wrote: Oh and to answer Geript, yes I still have a townread on kita; I don't really see any reason to doubt him right now despite what others have been saying---there has been no conrete evidence of a scum kita. | ||
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Top scumreads and why? Your refutation of my points against you regarding your D1 play: what are your current thoughts on zare? Did you read my case on him at all? | ||
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
You're of no use to us if you can't give us something concrete and why. No sheeping, no WIFOM. | ||
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Glurio what you have done today requires no effort. What Ryu has done today requires no effort. What TPS has done today requires no effort. What Kenpachi has done today requires no effort. And the list goes on and fucking ON. IF YOU PEOPLE ARE TOWN THEN THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO EXCUSE TO INACTIVITY, LACK OF READS WITH EXPLANATIONS AND LACK OF CRITICAL THOUGHT WITH 8 HOURS TO LYLO. If you find my case bad or good, FUCKING EXPLAIN WHY. Give the town something to work with, goddamnit. | ||
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On March 30 2013 08:17 geript wrote: Point 1. The missing roleblock revisited. Let's examine the roleblock scenario if there is a scum roleblocker. N1: Roleblock Keirathi (couldn't be VE because he would likely be dead if roleblocks work as in normal games). I would like to point out again that this choice of actions makes zero sense. There's no reason to RB Keirathi IMO. N2: Roleblock WoS N3: Roleblock WoS N4: Roleblock WoS. This action makes zero sense either as DP's post pretty much said ignore any red check claim from WoS. More importantly, TestSubject had claimed Vigilante. If you're in a good position as scum are you going to risk allowing a claimed Vigilante who hit scum once to have a second shot if it's possible? Much like I pointed out in my case against DYH, you conveniently ignore possible scenarios if they don't fit your explanation. N1 they didn't necessarily have to roleblock anybody, thereby creating the suspicion against me (or whoever their eventual target would be) when it mysteriously appeared. Your point on N4 makes a lot more sense except for the fact that Test had already used his shot and they KILLED him anyway. Why RB when you can kill someone?? As far as DP is concerned, I've already mentioned (as you point out later) I applaud his prediction skills but just because he says something doesn't mean mafia have to follow it. Point 2. WIFOM Deadguy stuff If you don't trust me on the matter, then you really should listen to these guys: + Show Spoiler [sciberbia] + On March 21 2013 10:48 sciberbia wrote: on WoS His blueclaim does not affect my opinion on his alignment. I still think he is pretty likely to be scum, but I am willing to wait to see if he is still alive tomorrow, which I think he will be. On March 21 2013 11:12 sciberbia wrote: I have read every page of the thread at least once, and I do in fact have major doubts about your claim, as I just said. Maybe I'm wrong though. We'll see D3 I guess. On March 21 2013 12:14 sciberbia wrote: @WoS I did read the thread and I know you claim to have investigated TPS. Which is why it's odd to me that you bring him up as useless and say you "read" him as town when if you are a cop then you know for a fact he is town. Anyway, you are not the lynch today so I'm dropping this. On March 28 2013 15:59 DarthPunk wrote: Lynch Ryu and Kita. If Kita doesn't die tonight he is basically guaranteed to be scum. plus all the stuff with Blazinghand and flying under the radar. If Wave of Shadow doesn't die tonight he is scum and needs to be lynched. + Show Spoiler [DarthPunk] + On March 28 2013 14:01 DarthPunk wrote: Read kita's and Ryu's filters and tell me what you think. Tell me what you think of kita's zero interaction with Blazing hand. + Show Spoiler [TestSubject983] + On March 27 2013 12:28 TestSubject893 wrote: Well this throws a wrench in things. I was all ready to come back and stack on cosmic since no one believes me that WoS is obviously scum.... I don't see any reason not to believe him since layabout isn't objecting. I guess its possible that they're both scum. Its also possible that they actually are gonna get some KP later and are just lying. Hmmm.... gotta think about this. On March 26 2013 01:24 TestSubject893 wrote: Its ok for you to play terrible because you're gonna get RBed? That's your excuse? Not gonna cut it. I've never seen anyone but scum express this sentiment. I don't know why'd you'd say this as town. On March 26 2013 01:13 TestSubject893 wrote: You've played exactly like a scum would if they fake claimed, so if you're town you've only got yourself to blame for us mislynching today. ##Vote: WaveofShadow As scum, there's direct incentive to remove players who are making sense and players who are on the right track. There are 3 dead guys who wanted to lynch WoS. How does that read to you? WIFOM. There are plenty of dead guys who pointed out other people as well. Like GreYMisT: On March 18 2013 11:12 GreYMisT wrote: Again, if I have to die so be it. the best I can do is say that I think goodkarma should be lynched. After GK I think waveofShadow should be looked into, followed by testsubject. These are my feelings at the moment. Point 3. Next let's look at Day 2 when Wave came under pressure: What's his direct response to pressure? This: That's right he voted for Wiggles. Wiggles already had a wagon started on him with Zarepath, GK and VE voting for him. Is there any reasoning behind why Wiggles is scum? No, this is just a deflection towards a lurker. I stand by the fact that he appeared scummy ever since my read on him changed at the beginning of the game. Zero regrets. Point 4. He voted with his scum reads on the deflection onto WIggles: + Show Spoiler [VE is scummy] + On March 20 2013 05:47 WaveofShadow wrote: Ok looking at the cosmic case on VE, there are a few things that are reaching just a little bit, but overall the inconsistencies pointed out in VE's play are pretty damning. Even more damning may be the fact that VE returns to the thread and completely ignores the (clearly good) case on him without trying to defend any of the points made on these inconsistencies, rather he just adds another post weakly pushing BH again. I'm interested to hear what BH himself thinks of this evidence, especially since he had originally regarded VE as his strognest town read at the time. GK regarding your post on Wiggle, I originally had him as a townread but he has done dick all since yesterday aside from this: which adds nothing of value at all. I think for now my scumread on VE is stronger but at least he is around to maybe provide some defense. Wiggle's posts are useless but VE's are blatant contradictions. I'm having a lot of trouble trusting either VE or BH right now but it's seeming more and more to me that one of them may have to be scum. On March 20 2013 05:24 WaveofShadow wrote: K glurio. GL buddy. I'll look into cosmic's VE case again, but in the end I think it just makes me assume that one of either VE or BH has to be scum. The super hard defense of GK by BH makes me think if he's scum then likely GK is too btu I don't know how likely that is, despite my conspiracy theory and the QT 'scumslip.' Speaking of which I remember harboring concerns about VE's town circle earlier on D1, but now we're on D2 and we haven't heard anything. Was it a joke or what? + Show Spoiler [BH+GK scummy] + On March 20 2013 05:08 WaveofShadow wrote: You misunderstand. I said it's more likely for BH/GK logs to be faked than BH/VE, if you read my case. I also never said they faked the logs entirely, I assume by the timestamps that they were actually using the mason QT but it is a possibility they are using the scum QT to discuss what to put in the mason QT in case they had to show logs. Much like my conspiracy theory-type posts from LX, I can perfectly understand if people think they're retarded, but I think it's at least worth consideration. On March 20 2013 06:02 WaveofShadow wrote: Alright there we go, so there goes one of cosmic's points against you...that wasn't so hard. The other point (I don't care about the DP nonsense) that struck home for me was you fingering GK earlier on and then assuming he was town to make the case against BH. I'll link for your convenience: Do you agree with both BH and GK being scum partners and that the logs were faked? Point 5. He treats BH and VE differently Despite being back and forth as to who is scum (at first he's thinking BH+GK are scum, then he agrees that VE looks scummy, then he's back to BH+GK), The main thing that you'll really notice about this whole exchange is how in the whole time he doesn't really attack or pressure BH in any way. As a matter of fact, he takes the softball approach with BH: Whereas on VE he's far more direct: Let's look at his record for votes for the day: Wiggles, then VE then GK. That's right, despite thinking and saying this: He still manages to never vote for BH. As town, the logical thing to do would be to if one of VE or BH are scum is to pick a side, in the worst you can get a Vig to shoot the other. You learn very little if GK is town as BH could still be scum and VE could still be town. Lol is this your 'behavioural analysis' horseshit again? Because I honestly see no difference at all and you're really reaching here. It shows. I was unsure as to BH/VE and I attempted to ask them questions at various points during the day. That's all there is to it, really, but then again you do love looking wayyyy into things when there isn't anything huh? If you're scum then I applaud you for this game but if you're town, you really need to rethink the way you play this game since you've incorrectly fingered me as mafia in every game we've played aside from NMM 37 Point 6. N4/D5 progression. WoS ends the night with this. Note the subtle attempt to discredit. "Uhh, I don't think that non-interaction is scummy, but why haven't you interacted with XYZ people?" He starts off D5 with a weak case on Zarepath. Then when people don't respond and I shoot it down, he moves his vote onto DYH. Next and MOST IMPORTANTLY Kita posts two cases, the first on Glurio+ Show Spoiler + On March 29 2013 09:45 kitaman27 wrote: Glurio I already outlined a case against Glurio, but that was a couple days ago so I'll update based on the events of the last few days. Case for reference: + Show Spoiler + On March 24 2013 03:46 kitaman27 wrote: For tomorrow, someone I think we should be looking at is glurio. To start the game, he posts suspicion against coag, stating that coag is useless, without actually calling coag scummy. Rather than actually voting for coag, he votes for DP, a player he never actually mentions in the thread. It's not like DP was more of a lynch-able candidate as there were only 2 votes on him. During the first cycle, he never actually mentions GreYMisT, which is significant considering he was the main lynch candidate for the day. He soft defends BH, without actually providing a reason why he doesn't have a scum read on him. With the day two vote, he votes for Mocsta as the lone vote. At no point in the cycle does he try to convince others to vote Mocsta, only that he was going with his "gut". After the BH flip, he explains how BH's interaction with Wiggles is scum-to-scum conversation, yet decides to vote cosmicomics. Glurio complains that no one listens to him, but on day one and two there was actually nothing to listen to. How are we supposed to be convinced by his posts if his only explanation is his gut? Overall, Glurio feels like an observer this game, looking to stay under the radar and lacks the town motivation to push a lynch. It seems that he cares more about survival and doing his own thing, voting for players that have no chance of being lynched. He would be a good lynch candidate tomorrow. First I want to highlight the following post: When I listed glurio and CC as my top scum reads, glurio responded with the above question. A scum glurio would very well know that I would have no explanation, even though both players would be anti-town. He tries to tie his alignment to the alignment of another player to make me question my reads. Notice the wording of this post. After the mirror claim, rather than stating "cosmic is scum", he states that "he couldn't convince me he is town." As a mafia glurio, would certainly know that cosmic is third party, the way he phrases this statement betrays the fact that he has additional knowledge about the game. In his soft-defense of BH, he disregards any notion of potentially voting for him, but doesn't provide any reasoning why. Last cycle glurio expresses his suspicion of layabout, yet now he has failed to even bring him up, shifting his suspicion towards myself and ryu. Why post suspicion of a player without following through with it, unless you want to create distance from a player in case one of you two flip. Look how glurio attacks WoS's checks, but refuses to actually call him scummy. He calls the checks terrible, yet never states what conclusion he comes to based on the checks. What point is there to cast suspicion on a player that you have a town read? glurio is playing the classic backseat mafia role. He has no interest in attracting any attention, being involved in any arguments or pushing any lynches. If I had to pick one word to characterize his play, it would be "safe". I can't find one post that shows glurio feels strongly about a single issue He votes for a player on day one with two other votes. He votes for a player on day two with zero other votes. Rather than scum hunting, he is hunting for players to vote for that will keep him out of the spotlight. Notice in his defense post about how his wasn't around for the second half of either cycle. Instead of pushing his lynch, his is throwing down his vote and returning 24 hours later to find out who flipped. glurio is scum On March 29 2013 10:01 kitaman27 wrote: People are all giving layabout a free pass due to his third party conversion and his attack on BH. The important thing to remember is that on day two his alignment changed. Comparing his play from day one to day two, the part the stands out is that his attacks on BH don't start until he becomes third party. On day one he doesn't mention BH, yet after being converted he suddenly wants BH lynched. Look how flippy floppy layabout is with his lynch target on day four. He doesn't care who gets lynched, he is just voting for the player that is most likely to have the most votes. He calls DP scum, then turns around and votes with DP. A third party player who was originally town would want a scum lynch since it would mean that if he was ever converted back, he would be in a better position. A third party player that was originally mafia would simply push whatever option was available. layabout is scum As town if you have a town read on someone + Show Spoiler + On March 29 2013 14:39 WaveofShadow wrote: Oh and to answer Geript, yes I still have a townread on kita; I don't really see any reason to doubt him right now despite what others have been saying---there has been no conrete evidence of a scum kita. On March 29 2013 02:42 WaveofShadow wrote: So we're at LYLO, we're completely in the dark as to what's going on with last night's resolution of actions and we have 8 posts total in almost 12 hours. So at LYLO, you completely ignore your town read's posts and instead go off on another tangents. That is not consistent with town play. Someone asked me about his reads (may have been kita himself, I forget) and I didn't find anything wrong with his cases per se, but I didn't find them particularly compelling in any way. Kinda like this case. I need more to go on about every single read that has popped up today and for the most part, I haven't gotten it so I didn't want to comment about it yet. Point 7. Everything is wrong with this post. First off, notice the attempt to discredit DP. He's saying that DP both had a good read on him (knowing who he would target) and a bad read on him (he's town). More importantly, he doesn't even go on to defend or explain why he thinks DP is right or wrong about WoS, Kita or Ryu. Second off, notice how “as town” he considered lying about a red check. As town, if you think you're at LYLO, WHY LIE? There's no reason. Not only are people going to have a hard time believing you because of DP's last post, but WoS hasn't had good reads at all. He never even took a real side on the whole VE/BH “one of them must be scum” concept. Why should anyone believe him? The reason why he didn't want to do it was because there's no way we'd believe him or trust him if he did. Third, notice the subtle “don't look/tunnel me plz” comment. I cut him some rope today because I've historically thought he was scum and because glurio made a good point on it, But at this point, it's not bad townie play, it's pure malicious. Fourth, for someone who hasn't put a vote on scum or found scum or "rolechecked" scum (other than perhaps Zarepath) it's damn hypocritical to call someone else useless. That's not creating townie atmosphere; it's trying to bury someone. [b]This is your worst point by far. Why in all that is holy would I ADMIT TO POTENTIALLY SCHEMING and specifically DRAW ATTENTION to DP's suspicion of me when I could have just said nothing about my being RBed tonight at all? (Fuck if I even know if I was RBed for sure, once again I got nothing from DrH at all.) If I'm discrediting him then why would I congratulate his read on me WHICH I DIDN'T EVEN HAVE TO ADMIT TO IN THE FIRST PLACE? Why not, as Zare suggested, just throw my check on someone that died again? Oh yeah, because I'm fucking town and I'm trying to be transparent about my play. Apparently I was transparent enough that DP read me perfectly so there's something to be said about that. Geript do yourself a favour and look elsewhere; we're running out of time and your tunneling attempts will get you nowhere. Don't rely on dead people's reads, get your own. | ||
WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
Kita I have no idea where to go on glurio right now. I'm going to re-re-re-look into him now. I've thought he was scum for most of the game but it's entirely possible his 'lone-wolf' voting style and lack of explanations when sheeping post are just his typical town play as well which is what is stopping me. Either way I'm not changing my vote to glurio right now. | ||
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