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Annul So there are two scenarios, either Annul told the truth and he’s town, or he lied and he’s scum. We’re actually somewhat fortunate in that his alignment comes down to a single decision in the game. I feel a lot of confusion in the thread regarding what he says he did. This is his explanation, as I believe many/some people understand it:
- N2 he believed it was clear that BKE and Chezinu would flip scum
- He decided to place his bomb on Chezinu, in case he was shot that night, stalling Chezinu’s lynch so we could lynch BKE (believed to be 99% scum by most) and some other suspicious individual
Now is this the work of town annul, or scum annul? Let’s start with scum. What does scum Annul know? He knows Chezinu is scum, and BKE is town. He knows he is not actually a Mad Hatter, and can only appear as one a maximum of one time (if the final scum is the framer). He also knows that he breadcrumbed Mad Hatter from the beginning of the game for some reason. Who would he choose to “bomb”? Chezinu, of course. What are the possible outcomes of this scenario (convincing town to vote someone other than Chezinu)? Given that he knows BKE is town, he knows that town is likely headed for a mislynch D3. Probably two, if he is able to switch people off of Chez. He knows he will look quite suspicious if he succeeds in his ploy. He would be in much the same position he is now. So many people were sure of Chez’s scumminess that, having saved him the previous day and leading town to two mislynches, Annul would be right up there with him. They would have one more KP that night, but they would likely sacrifice both their lives. If he failed, what has happened, happens. It becomes known that he tried to save (likely) scum. He has, at most, one night of safety from DT checks. He has drawn a significant amount of attention to himself, and has earned nothing from it.
Now let’s look at town Annul. What does town Annul know? He knows he is Mad Hatter. He knows that he finds BKE and Chezinu both to be incredibly likely scum. Who would he choose to bomb? Doesn’t matter, because town Annul thinks they’re both scum. What are the possible outcomes of this scenario (convincing town to vote someone other than Chezinu)? If he fails, he loses his bomb, and two scum flip (oops). Town might be suspicious of him because of it, but nowhere near as much as we were today due to the BKE flip (oops). But if he succeeds, then he's given town the opportunity to lynch an additional person D3. Whether or not the second person is scum, the KP would still be reduced to 1 permanently because we were still lynching BKE (oops). In addition, town has effectively taken Chezinu hostage, guaranteeing annul's survival as long as Chezinu is alive. That would be 3 guaranteed townies who couldn't be NK'd (FT, toad, and annul) and one "free" scum, leaving us in that 0.000001% situation annul mentioned when he claimed.
You will note that all three times I wrote (oops) were times his assumption of BKE flipping scum screwed him over. This perfectly explains why he says his only mistake was BKE.
I don't believe that scum annul would risk his own life to save Chezinu given what he would have known. The pros don't outweigh the cons, as he looks suspicious either way. The town annul explanation is far more feasible. I'm about 95% more inclined to believe that town annul had a significant oversight and had trouble explaining himself than I am to believe that scum annul risked his life quite blatantly to save someone who ultimately was likely going to be lynched anyway. Add to that other small things, like the fact that he breadcrumbed his role, and that he could have gotten gonzaw elected but kept his vote on himself, and I think it's pretty conclusive.
So, the way I understand the situation is more like this:
- He asked for the towniest scumreads he could find (those of toad, FT, DS, and oats)
- He agreed with them that BKE and Chez would flip scum
- He placed his bomb on Chezinu because he was sure they were both scum. Even if the lynch gained from annul's bomb was a mislynch, one questionable townie was taken off the list, and BKE was a pretty sure thing (oops). In any case, that day's lynch would still leave them at 1-2 scum remaining, eliminating one of the KP for sure (oops).
- Because annul's bomb was on Chezinu, we would have had another guaranteed townie, who would have been unable to die unless scum wanted to take Chezinu down with him.
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I explained for him because he wasn't doing a good job explaining it himself. It's dumb to waste time thinking about lynching town, and some people are significantly misunderstanding him. This includes vivax, yamato, toad, and marv. These are people I don't want focusing on someone who isn't flipping scum. They've driven the conversation for most of the game, and this is my way to keep them on track.
Do you agree, or disagree with my conclusion?
As for who I want to lynch today, I'm not completely sure, if you can believe that. I've been on this annul/austin/axle filterdive for the last day or so and it's got me questioning some previous light townreads. My vote has been on axle since this morning following toad's posts, but I feel myself inching away from voting for him. I took down some posts during class that I wanted to respond to, so I'll get those up eventually. If I had to say who I feel most likely to flip scum at the moment, I would say austin.
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If you think I'm changing my vote every time my thoughts on someone shift around, you're out of your mind. My vote changes when I come to a decision, which I haven't.
Do you have anything to say about the Vivax stuff I linked for you before? Or did you find nothing and are therefore searching through what I felt were my two best posts of the game trying to find something scummy?
And what is with this shit, "Without commenting on the accuracy or presence or lack of holes in your argument."? What I see is "While ignoring your actual contribution." The argument is the point of the entire post! Do you agree or disagree with my conclusion?
Why did you two have to be the only ones online when I posted this? Whatever, I'm going to bed. Anyone voting for annul right now, I want to hear what you think of my post before the deadline.
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I understand what you're saying about annul, marv (sorry for missing your previous post about the topic XD). It makes me nervous, since I was really, really confident yesterday. That and the fact that everything annul's said so far after I posted it has been straight up complimenting me. However, I still think he's town. After a quick dash through his filter, this quote stuck out as additional reason to believe he was sincere:
On January 28 2013 16:35 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2013 16:07 Toadesstern wrote: See that's why we lynched both and not BKE + the 5th read... It was possible to screw up and we did screw up. This way mafia is still at 1 KP permanently because we can only screw up once :p
Anyways that meanas mafia doublestacked Bugs.
That also means there's 2 people we have to look out for. I don't like Annuls question about mad hatters and wether their bomb would explode when lynched to be honest. Not that I know the answer, but I would know the answer because I would have asked the host about that way earlier if I were a madhatter.
Should have voted for doublelynch so we can go after 2 people. That way we again would have made sure that we at least hit one guy...
ALSO: I'm probably not going to tell you what to do with your medic protection tonight. i was never in danger of getting lynched. it was never relevant to me. The question he asked about hatters isn't something I would expect a lying scum to ask in thread, and the response to toad's suspicion is equally unexpected from someone pretending to be town. I don't really know what to make of his vote on yamato. I guess as scum he could just be throwing his vote down somewhere it won't gain any traction, but he could have just jumped on any of the easier lynch candidates. It's kind of an unreasonable vote as either scum or town, but there's that added level of "why would scum annul pick yamato if he KNOWS he's town"? Yes, I can see how his play the entire game could be an elaborate trick, but I don't think it is.
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That's true, it just made me a bit nervous even though it was pretty much exactly what I wanted to hear XD
In class, but I've been looking through clarity/adam's filters. They've both kind of slid under my radar most of the game. In the beginning it was because of clarity's thread presence, but later it was because at a certain point I just started with DS/toad's lists and worked my way down. Do you remember why DS had <1% scum on his last spreadsheet?
Class just got out early, so I've gotta move. I will say that after reading the filters straight through I'm not sure where the incredibly strong town read came from.
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I think a double lynch now will give us more info to work with earlier. If we catch scum, fantastic. If we lynch a scummy townie, then we don't have to consider the scummy townie anymore. It will also narrow down the field earlier, before scum can hit more of our confirmed townies. The discussion is good too.
(still working on clarity/adam stuff)
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On January 31 2013 08:08 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 07:57 yamato77 wrote:On January 31 2013 07:44 austinmcc wrote:On January 31 2013 07:42 yamato77 wrote: Austin why are you being super active when we're talking about whether or not we should double lynch as opposed to when we talk about who we want to lynch?
Aren't there at least a couple people you want dead right now? For non-scummy reasons, like, "I have time right at this moment."? I have a couple questions I would like answered, more than I have a couple people I want dead right now. Like the one I asked you. Something about the difference between you and Axle? Basically just a question to appear to make yourself look better to me. That's the one. Why are my interactions with gonzaw/chez/prplhz and discussions about them making you entirely sure I'm mafia, while they are inconclusive evidence as far as Adam is concerned? Adam, or Axle?
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Alright, some points that caught my attention when reading through clarity and Adam's filters:
Clarity: Runs for mayor based on a platform of being a townie townie and creating a good atmosphere D1. It actually kinda sounds like he's just running for "townie". Seems strange to emphasize one of your strengths D1 when town wants a mayor for more than just one day. Promises Djo reads, never gave them. Not sure what we can draw from this, since he then disappeared after that. I think this is standing out to me because Djo was really suspicious of clarity and he died N1. He also questioned why Djo was asking so many question, which is kind of a weird thing to be suspicious of. However, Djo said clarity returned to his null zone, so I’m not sure what to think.
Adam: Talks about relatively unimportant things instead of the important ones Has some weird/weak reasons to find people townie He doubted the chezinu lynch because chezinu followed the chezinu rule Mosca seemed particularly suspicious of him because of how adam was deciding people were town, and he died last night (was he the only one? Marv commented on the reasoning, but he couldn't be killed.) Then there's the ninja vote that I can't really take offense to (I did it, I'm pretty sure others did as well), but he WAS absent for about 34 hours before he returned to the thread with nothing to add
Right now, top scumreads are austin and adam. I think they're scummy apart, and I think their motivations seem to mesh really well together. (also possible scumslip? lol)
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Oh, and I'd change my vote to either of them off of axle if we could get a lynch today. But at this point it probably won't happen.
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EBWOP: ...and it's probably a bad idea anyway, since I don't think other people are as convinced as I am.
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On January 31 2013 08:23 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 08:13 mkfuba07 wrote: Alright, some points that caught my attention when reading through clarity and Adam's filters:
Clarity: Runs for mayor based on a platform of being a townie townie and creating a good atmosphere D1. It actually kinda sounds like he's just running for "townie". Seems strange to emphasize one of your strengths D1 when town wants a mayor for more than just one day. Promises Djo reads, never gave them. Not sure what we can draw from this, since he then disappeared after that. I think this is standing out to me because Djo was really suspicious of clarity and he died N1. He also questioned why Djo was asking so many question, which is kind of a weird thing to be suspicious of. However, Djo said clarity returned to his null zone, so I’m not sure what to think.
Adam: Talks about relatively unimportant things instead of the important ones Has some weird/weak reasons to find people townie He doubted the chezinu lynch because chezinu followed the chezinu rule Mosca seemed particularly suspicious of him because of how adam was deciding people were town, and he died last night (was he the only one? Marv commented on the reasoning, but he couldn't be killed.) Then there's the ninja vote that I can't really take offense to (I did it, I'm pretty sure others did as well), but he WAS absent for about 34 hours before he returned to the thread with nothing to add
Right now, top scumreads are austin and adam. I think they're scummy apart, and I think their motivations seem to mesh really well together. (also possible scumslip? lol) So, you summarize my filter into half a dozen lines and I become one of your top scum reads? If you find that list to be indicative of me being scum, you need to explain why, because you haven't done so. Yes. My possible scum at this point are axle, you, stutters, and austin. It's not hard to jump to the top of the list.
And there's more reasons than I've listed, but they tend to be smaller and less reliable. Things like you saying that you "choose" to see vivax as an overzealous townie. And reasons that I find you scummy because I find austin scummy, and I can see some interplay between you two (which is reasonably speculative and I shouldn't really consider because neither of you have flipped yet). I didn't name them because they should probably be ignored, but nonetheless they're affecting my read of you.
You comment about setup-type stuff when you could be talking about players and reads. There's more of the former than the latter. You find people townie for reasons you shouldn't find people townie. One person showed significant suspicion of you because of this, and that person ended up dead the next day (I think oats also has you on his scumlist, but I don't recall him pushing his reads at all). You said you'd come back in the morning, but you showed up only to ninja vote and go back to lurking. Is that enough explanation?
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I've been trusting marv when he said that he doesn't think grush would risk his STARSENSES.
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Thanks oats! XD
Now I have to figure out who I was wrong about... Or if I was wrong about both... Or if I eliminated someone as scum because I assumed something about the scum setup that has just been revealed to be untrue...
At least I can't talk myself into unflipped connection theories anymore. My god, that's going to become my meta...
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Oh shit I was right!!!!
On February 01 2013 10:24 annul wrote: i am going to sleep now, but now that toad used up his powers and is either red or effectively a green, we should start to consider him in lynch decisions, too. he literally just attempted to railroad me while using a "DO NOT FIGHT ME ON THIS OR I WILL LYNCH YOU FOR BEING STUPID" argument. trying to stifle dissent, eh? hmmm... If that were the case why would he say he's going to jail you and then nk someone? It just proved your innocence <.<
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