I'm equating myself to Axle because we happen to be those two players.
TL Mafia LIX - Page 11
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I'm equating myself to Axle because we happen to be those two players. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I'll spare you the work of clicking twice. It's on Axle. | ||
austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 08:25 yamato77 wrote: So why are you trying to convince me to think of you like the guy you want to lynch? I think he's unreadable. You are not. Your association is meaningful. Let me ask you this, why do you want to lynch Axle? Is there a reason I can find in your filter? I'm not trying to convince you of anything. You reacted differently to very similar information. This isn't going anywhere though. I want to know why I'm mafia because of x, but x is inconclusive evidence as to axle (as far as your reads were concerned). Especially when it concerns things like votes, which aren't unreadable posts, which are ENTIRELY readable because you just look at who they're on. If axle flips red, then, depending on why you were differentiating us, you might look bad to me. You'd have taken the same information, or similar information, and branded me mafia but branded the mafia dude "inconclusive." That certainly seems like something one might want to follow up on. As to axle, I don't think there's a specific reason in my filter, no. | ||
austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 08:29 yamato77 wrote: I just looked. There isn't. So I'm going to go with what you've been saying right now, which is that he's under suspicion for "similar reasons" as you are, which you have realized to be your associations with the flipped mafia. So why is Axle mafia for it and you're not? See my posts about expecting to get crap and how my filter looks? I can understand why I'd look like mafia. I would be suspicious of me in this situation. He's mafia and I'm not because I've seen my PM. Again, I'm asking questions to get a read on you. | ||
austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 08:38 yamato77 wrote: It's inconclusive to me because I don't know how he gets his reads, nor am I particularly sure what those reads are. You, however, I have played with before when you were town. You're what I would consider a normal player, so your reads on three confirmed mafias players SHOULD mean something. You're just trying to downplay it. If I were trying to downplay it, WHY WOULD I BE BRINGING IT UP!? | ||
austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 08:40 yamato77 wrote: Because you don't want me to think you're mafia. That makes no sense at all. You can't downplay something by bringing it up... | ||
austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 08:46 yamato77 wrote: Obviously if you're going to argue my diction this is going nowhere. Sleep tight, Marv doesn't want you dead yet so you probably won't get lynched tomorrow anyway. It's going somewhere. We may not know, but the inconclusive comment from you WAS curious. It's worth teasing out. It's worth following up on why you think I'm downplaying something that I'm bringing up, to see if there's anything there or if it's just a comment you're tossing out offhand. It looks to be more the latter. | ||
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austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 08:56 yamato77 wrote: You silly.I give so little of a shit that you're suspicious of me, you don't even know. Good luck with that read, bro. Seriously, look at your reads and your play. I'm mafia, in part because I called Gonzaw townie D1, thought that Chezinu shouldn't be dismissed as a mayoral candidate, and was wonky about the prplhz lynch. Axle's votes on Gonzaw and Chezinu are "inconclusive." Do you remember your D1? "Chez is not a bad candidate for mayor" - + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2013 09:41 yamato77 wrote: The main thing is that I don't think Chez is trying to be unreadable this game. Most games he is trying to be that way because he doesn't want mafia to shoot him, but this game he seems to be playing straight up which makes him way easier to read and understand. So the attack is baseless and scummy to make. Chez is not a bad candidate for mayor. And people shouldn't be discrediting his candidacy On January 21 2013 10:02 yamato77 wrote: The fact that you took extra special attention to blowing off Chezinu makes me think you simply want to discredit his candidacy for reasons I have yet to hear from your mouth. You were pretty noncommital about prplhz yourself - + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2013 11:26 yamato77 wrote: @Bugs Your only qualification for him being town is that he seems to 'give a fuck' about the game, but I'm not sure I see his particularly caring attitude after he realized he wasn't getting elected to mayor. I'll think about you guys' prplhz lynch idea but I hate sitting on the idea of lynching someone who isn't posting to make it controversial. On January 21 2013 13:29 yamato77 wrote: Prphlz seems similar, though I don't know him as well. What I do know is that the guy doesn't post a lot and he doesn't read blatant town so it is easy to pick on him because no one is going to disagree with you. He may very well be mafia but nothing he's done screams scum to me. On January 21 2013 22:31 yamato77 wrote: I suppose I do have a penchant for ignoring lurking players, hm. This post is insightful, and definitely something I have a hard time believing a mafia player to make. They would much rather me continue to be destructive and stupid. I have conflicting opinions of the two players you want to lynch. On one hand, they are being scummy on their own, as is evident to me at this point. On the other, they do seem like rather easy targets to pick on when they are town, which makes me doubt their true alignment, and consider meaningfully the implications of their flip on the players that are pushing them. I want to make sure I hold you guys accountable for these lynches, if you are indeed elected. While I don't disagree with them on the basic premise you put forth, I am highly suspicious and paranoid about the alignment of these veteran players, especially given that I know Toad and Bugs to be good scum players. Perhaps this is the bias I am confirming here. For now I think I feel confident enough in you being town to give you the mayoral seat. What I don't want is Toad or Vivax as sherrif, so that is where I am going to use my vote for influence. Would anyone necessarily be opposed to me getting that position? (prplhz "being scummy on his own," but "seems like a rather easy target to pick on when he's town." Entirely noncommittal) And your mayoral reads? - + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2013 11:51 yamato77 wrote: The only people I'm interested in voting for are Austin, Gonzaw, Chezinu, and maybe FiveTouch (but he's a special case). I am not voting for Vivax, Toad, Djo, or any other random person running. On January 21 2013 11:51 yamato77 wrote: The only people I'm interested in voting for are Austin, Gonzaw, Chezinu, and maybe FiveTouch (but he's a special case). I am not voting for Vivax, Toad, Djo, or any other random person running. Again, I can see why me being noncommittal on prplhz, thinking people shouldn't dismiss Chezinu, being townie on Gonzaw, could be interepreted as scum play. I would see those things as scum play. I only know I'm not scum because of my PM. But you are calling me scum for these things. Then Adam "inconclusive" for his votes. And you seem to have conveniently forgotten that you were right there too, telling people not to dismiss Chezinu, being noncommittal on prplhz, being interesting in voting Gonzaw or Chezinu. Is the rest of your filter that bad? | ||
austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 09:23 yamato77 wrote: Feisty.So you have wasted your time looking at my filter from day 1. Good job. You omit the part where I say I'm not worried about prplhz, I'm worried about the people pushing him. You also omit the part where I vote for FT. You also forget that D2 I had Oats as town and Gonzaw as the mafia before Vivax checked him, something many people did not. Yeah, no. But knock it off. Your read on me is that I'm mafia, for a lot of stuff that you did yourself and seem to have forgotten or are trying to bury. Assuming you think you're town, that's basically three different reads that you're pulling out of very similar sets of facts. I can't see how you're differentiating them, because all you do is get hyper-defensive about it. | ||
austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 09:31 yamato77 wrote: How is me accusing you repeatedly over the course of this conversation "defensive"? The fuck are you smoking? It's not the accusations. It's the way you try to discredit questions, or blow them off. I also view a lot of the language as defensive, but it may not be. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 31 2013 09:23 yamato77 wrote: You also forget that D2 I had Oats as town and Gonzaw as the mafia before Vivax checked him, something many people did not. Do you know the first post where you mention you think Gonzaw is mafia? It's here - + Show Spoiler + On January 24 2013 16:16 yamato77 wrote: This post of Oats, along with other things like his willingness to give out reads, his overall activity level, and his fairly unnecessary (if mafia) case on Gonzaw, makes me believe that he is town. The fact that he's continued to pursue his read on Gonzaw today is quite telling to me. When he posted the case at night, I believed he would have done so with the idea that it was cheap town cred to do something like this at night when there was no lynch on the line. However, today I see that he's fairly invested in the idea that Gonzaw is mafia, something that I feel a lot of people are at the moment. Basically, if you think Gonzaw is mafia, Oats is far likelier to be town. Plus, I agree with WBG's logic regarding the BGs, and not lynching them at the moment. Unless you are absolutely certain Oats is mafia, I do not feel like it is worth it to lynch him today. That's my thought on that situation. I think he might be town, and I'm not sold on lynching him yet even if others believe otherwise because he, if town, is valuable protection for our elected roles. On to my updated mafia reads: If I take seriously the idea that Oats is town, I have to consider the possibility that Debears is not. Debears' only contribution is a case on Oats, which is quite weak. Mafia debears would want Oats lynched, because that would mean that mafia gets to shoot into both Toad and FT tonight, or at any point in the future. While this would instantly out his as confirmed mafia, I'm not sure how confident I am with the idea that mafia wouldn't trade one of their own for our two elected roles, especially the mayor. Plus, people would be content to sit on the idea of town debears until the mayor/sheriff gets shot, which is quite useful. It's basically lynch immunity. This post, and many like it, show that debears is fairly preoccupied with the idea of Bodyguards and their potential protection powers. When I was mafia, and I was attempting to bluesnipe, one of the quickest tells you can pick up on is who seems preoccupied with blues in general, or a specific role such as doctor. Debears may have already has the idea in his head on Day 1 to make this sort of play as mafia, to sub himself in as a BG and use this "unlynchable" status to his advantage. Aside from this, debears has been fairly inactive, and hasn't pursued his scum reads very strongly. He posted a case on Gonzaw (that had him as slight scum, rofl), and then backed off of it later. He has a "case" on Oats, but he earlier posted this: So we know he doesn't want to lynch Oats. Who does he want to lynch? Annul. Why? He gives zero reason. He just calls him "scummy". I don't like this sort of thing at all. The speed at which he voted for annul also to me indicates that this is a mafia vote, because he did it early in the day and with zero prior mention of annul. These four posts are the only ones he even mentions annul in at all, and they've all been in day 2. Very weird to me. In that last post he also says he'd be willing to lynch BKE, but he's never mentioned him before either, and indeed doesn't even bother to provide a reason. So what about prphlz? He supported that lynch day 1, right? That's his only mention about his own read on prplhz. All of this I believe is indicative of a blendy mafia mindset, something I find pervasive throughout his filter. Not many of his reads seem original to him at all. His low activity suggests not wanting to be in the spotlight. I don't believe he's actively playing the game in a way I think town debears would, because town debears is characteristically more convinced of his own reads, a la Hero Mini where he was hyper aggressive day 1 in pursuing his target. Now, for the same reason WBG gave for not lynching Oats, I don't think we should lynch Debears either. But if I had to pick a mafia out of the two BG's, I would actually pick debears. Oats is greener to me. So, who else do I think is mafia, and which of them do I want to lynch today? Vivax could still be mafia. While a lot of the vets have previously had him as town, even they are less certain of this idea than they were before. However, if he is mafia I don't think he's going to get any better and we will have more information to lynch him with at a later date. Unless he continues to be completely anti-town for the rest of today, I don't think he's a particularly good lynch, and I don't think many other people do either. Annul might be mafia, as he's played similar to Vivax today, but I actually feel less confident about lynching him because of how easy it is for everyone to call him town. There's literally been zero resistance to lynching him today aside from other people giving out their own mafia reads and trying to get them lynched. I don't think a single person has called him even somewhat town, though I may be wrong because I've only skimmed the last ten pages. I don't like lynching him today. Gonzaw is an interesting idea. He has a few of these types of posts in his filter, where he softdefends a player (often Vivax actually) and generally gives weak reads. I don't feel like he's taken many strong stances with his reads this game. Even his opposition of the prplhz lynch was fairly weak. Also, he has a few of these posts in his filter, where he seems particularly preoccupied with his own image, and how town perceives the things he's doing. As I just finished typing in my analysis of another mafia player in NMM XXXIII. preoccupation with town's perception is a mafia tell, as they are more likely to care about how they are perceived than town. He even goes so far as to defend his spammy nature, something that I, as town, feel completely unmotivated to justify. While this is indicative of how I feel on the matter, that I just post what I think at the time I think it, I do not feel the need to justify this mindset. However, Gonzaw obviously does, which again leads me to believe that he is concerned with his image. This idea is also reinforced with the concept that running for mayor and being active on D1 are two easy ways to get people to have cheap town reads on you. While this is not a strong mafia tell, it is what I have managed to find in his filter after a short bit of diving. I am fairly confident in the possibility of him being mafia for these reasons, along with those that the rest of town has posted. I will resume my filter dive of him tomorrow, and either confirm my own bias or perhaps see something that might change my mind. So, you went from him being one of your mayoral candidates to... This post of Oats, along with other things like his willingness to give out reads, his overall activity level, and his fairly unnecessary (if mafia) case on Gonzaw, makes me believe that he is town. Oats's case on Gonzaw is "unnecessary."However, today I see that he's fairly invested in the idea that Gonzaw is mafia, something that I feel a lot of people are at the moment. "A lot of people" are invested in the idea that Gonzaw is mafia.Basically, if you think Gonzaw is mafia, Oats is far likelier to be town. So far, no negative mentions. We're still at you being cool voting him, to thinking Oats's case was unnecessary, commenting that a lot of people find Gonzaw scummy. Then you give your mafia reads. If Oats town then maybe Debears not. LOTS of paragraphs on debears. Vivax and annul could be mafia. Then. Then. "Gonzaw is an interesting idea." Followed by some stuff on Gonzaw, followed by: While this is not a strong mafia tell, it is what I have managed to find in his filter after a short bit of diving. I am fairly confident in the possibility of him being mafia for these reasons, along with those that the rest of town has posted. I will resume my filter dive of him tomorrow, and either confirm my own bias or perhaps see something that might change my mind. So yes, you called Gonzaw mafia, sort of, before Vivax posted his check. Out of the blue, he became an interesting scumread, at a time AFTER you noted a lot of people were suspicious of him. You had him as one of FOUR scumreads. Your overall conclusion was that nothing was a strong mafia tell, that you were confidant in the POSSIBILITY of him being mafia, and that you'd look more later. You then get super defensive when Vivax calls you out for "bussing" Gonzaw - On January 25 2013 01:05 yamato77 wrote: Lol, Vivax, how am I "setting myself up to bus" someone I conclude to be mafia in my post? How am I "setting up" for anything when my vote has been on him since? Who else am I going to lynch after I make a post like that, as mafia? Stop being dumb. Gonzaw has been my focus, and it's silly of you to read everything I'm doing from the strict mindset that I am mafia. But yet, when Vivax has a RED CHECK on the guy who is "your focus," On January 25 2013 01:21 yamato77 wrote: I want to see what Gonzaw says about this. You were "confident in the possibility of him being mafia," after you noted that a bunch of people had posted suspicions about him. You had him as one of four scumreads. But he was "your focus" (Even though you'd spent way more text railing on debears, Vivax, and Toad, then mentioned Gonzaw as maybe mafia that you'd filter further later in a list of 4 guys). And then a red check comes in this guy who is apparently your focus, and you "want to see what he says" about it? You, sir, are scummy. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On January 31 2013 10:00 yamato77 wrote: I actually want an answer to that question, by the way, because I have only played with him once. Would town Austin honestly think the stuff he picked out of my filter somehow makes me mafia? Town austin, looking over your filter, does indeed think you've got a good chance of being mafia. | ||
austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 10:05 yamato77 wrote: It takes balls to call someone mafia for doing a far more excusable version of what you're done this game. Not entirely sure what you mean by "excusable." Otherwise, I've been pretty open in saying that I knew some of my filter looked REALLY bad after I was wrong in some reads. So yeah, if you did a lot of the same stuff, you're going to look bad too. We're both going to look bad. I have the benefit of knowing I'm town. But your reaction to similar filters is to have wildly different reads. I'm fine having balls and being consistent. You're being remarkably inconsistent. In ways that make you look bad. | ||
austinmcc
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Two godfathers certainly makes 2 DTs look more balanced. | ||
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austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 11:04 yamato77 wrote: Sounds like a mafia claim to me. You do realize he can't be scum if I'm scum. | ||
austinmcc
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On January 31 2013 11:11 yamato77 wrote: You're less likely mafia after the flip, but not completely off the hook. At this point, with the people I'm looking at, it's a scum grading system, and grush just jumped to the top. So you poked at the fact that I didn't give a reason for voting Adam in my filter...then give me towncred when he's lynched? How exactly does that work? | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
GOOD LORD WHAT IS GOING ON TODAY. | ||
austinmcc
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On February 01 2013 01:07 FiveTouch wrote: Just a silly thing I was musing on. It looks like none of the mafia masons used their mason power. This must have been a conscious plan (presumably to discredit town masons?) Didn't make sense to me with a single player, but I suppose it makes some sense as a faction-wide decision. Pass up the chance at control over the game to stay away from getting a player or two caught by virtue of weeding through the masons for mafia, and you can bring up that up lategame and try to get some mislynches on the virtue of mason-role only. | ||
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