Mario Mini Mafia - Page 17
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debears
United States2516 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Ill talk to you after the game us over I swares ill catch the last scum bro | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 18 2012 15:25 Djodref wrote: @ Clarity I think that Hope is Vig even if we obtain the proof that there is a SK with a mass claim. Are you familiar with the C9++ setup ? If not, I recommend to have a careful look at this page. It's quite interesting and I think this is something you have to know if you want to be a better player and/or if you want to host a game sometime. Anyway, here is the most interesting part regarding the setup, given our current situation. To sum up, the scum roles are a function of the number of "T" letters you obtain when you pick 7 letters in between the following letter probability set. T = 1/2 D = 1/10 (in our game, the "D" letter gives us JK roles) V = 1/10 (one-shot Vigs only) M = 1/10 (mason and miller roles) B = 1/20 (town RB roles) C = 3/20 (you need two "C" letters to have one fully operational Cop in the game) Please note that one of the letters in our rolled set for this game is M and that one other is V (Hopeless). Let's take a look at the different possibilities for the scum roles. Scum Roles a 7 "T" letter set is impossible because we have at least one "M" impossible because we would already have won the game TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer This setup is possible only if one of BH or Hopeless is lying and is the remaining SK. I think we can safely discard this possibility unless we are at lylo with BH or with Hopeless. Moreover, there are only 2 mafia in this setup and no more blues on top of Hopeless and BH, even if one of them is lying. MVTTTTT or MDTTTTT if you want. impossible setup because of Bowser flip impossible setup because of Bowser flip TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather I think that this is the setup we are in (and it is the most likely probability-wise, something like 40%). It leaves the room for 2 or 3 more blues on top of Hopeless, information that we can be confirm with a mass-claim. T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) This setup has roughly a 15% probability to happen. It can also be confirmed with a mass claim but it would leave us in a dangerous position with all the blues revealed for the SK and the remaining scum. But we would know for sure that there is a SK and start looking for him seriously. Anyway, it is less likely to happen. 0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather This setup has only a 5% probability to happen. We would have enough blue to outright solve the game. Is there anything stil unclear ? The more I think about it, the more I think that mass claiming at the end of the night is our best move but I need everyone participation. I beg you to seriously consider it. Djo, we'll figure out whether there is a sk after tonight anyways lol. So that part I don't agree with. But, if it could make sense of BH's claim, it should be considered. | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 18 2012 17:59 Djodref wrote: @ debears I disagree, it could be a good strategy for a possible SK to retain his night kills until we manage to find the last scum. What does make you think that a possible SK would kill tonight ? 1) Assuming that the SK isn't hopeless, he could put doubt on hopeless' claim. 2) it's what, 8/7 town to 1 scum/sk or 1 scum and sk 3) The longer the game goes on, the harder it is to conceal a guilty conscience/push your agenda as sk/mafia | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 18 2012 18:02 Djodref wrote: By the way debears, I had questions for you that you didn't answer. I would appreciate you to find them back in my filter and to give me your answers. Thanks ! Meh. But i don't wanna! | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
I just see one @debears on pg 4 with ur whole setup spec deal Quote them plz its 3 am here | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 18 2012 18:21 Blazinghand wrote: i'm currently hanging out in drojef's filter and I can't find the questions either >:| Lol right? I looked over them like 4 times with search function haha. Anyways BH, I have found Clarity's posting pre and post lynch a little weird. Do you get the same vibe? | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
What was your whole point on the SnB screenshot and alt tab and all that? | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 18 2012 18:40 Djodref wrote: @ debears Shit, I have just missed you. Anyway, it was a long time ago but I still want have some details about what happened in your head during the exchange between S&B and BH at D2. Especially I want to know why you posted this. For two vets, they have both ridiculously underperformed. They have been obnoxious. I was getting tired of it. And hell, chances are one of them is scum (more likely SnB imo) | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 18 2012 18:50 Djodref wrote: @ debears 1)That's actually a good point. I don't think that hopeless could be SK even with another kill because he killed Crossfire and that would have been against a SK interest. But I've just realized that there was no way for a SK Hopeless to know for sure that Cross was scum when he decided to kill. By the way, would you yourself doubt Hopeless claim if we have 2 kills again tonight ? I remember that Hopeless was on your radar during D1. 2)That's also a good point. But it depends on the strategy you would choose as a SK. I don't know about it... 3)I disagree with this one because a possible SK would not know who the last scum is better than us. He would have no other thing to do than to scumhunt hard while not killing anyone and hope to survive until lylo. You don't have any guilty conscience if you didn't kill anyone, right ? 1) I would strongly look at Hopeless if another kill showed up. However, in my thought process, it would be fucking retarded for a SK to claim vig n1. Think about it. He would paint a target on his back for the mafia by being a confirmed town 2 and 3) Djo, it's a proven fact that, the longer the game goes on, the worse it is for the anti-town alignments. It gets so much harder to hide | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 18 2012 18:51 Clarity_nl wrote: I've explained my thoughts on last minute shennanigans. I did this when marv tried to jump on cross too, which is not much of a defense I guess since he flipped scum too. I'm town. That's my defense. I never aggressively defended hapa or cross, I was against emotionally lynching someone. Read debears' case on hapa, it WAS omgus. Clarity, you know me full well after last game that I omgus when I find someones shitty reasoning for attacking me. It made you and sylver scum reads to me d1 last game. And guess what? I was right | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 19 2012 00:51 Clarity_nl wrote: debears did you believe zbo was scummier than snb? They were pretty damn close. Z-Bo was way off his meta. He didn't metion the purposeful change until later in d1, instead of in the pregame. He really hadn't done anything so far to make me think he was town. SnB has been picking his spots to be here. He didn't care about showing up on lynch day. Leaves when the pressure is on him Also, he was a liability heading into lylo. Now that we know he was a miller, we have gained some more setup information. We won't have to worry about people doubting his claim. I pretty much want to autolynch SnB today | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 19 2012 01:36 Djodref wrote: @ debears 1) I agree with you on this one. Would you say that your D1 history with Hopeless is over then ? 2) and 3) You got me convinced that the SK is going to kill tonight and maybe have double-stacked his kill on marv yesterday, if he exists of course. On a side note, you said that you wanted to auto-lynch S&B tomorrow but I'm not sure if you mentioned other scum reads lately. What do you think about BH post on Clarity ? As I said, I've found clarity's posting weird lately, especially with his certainty on what z-Bo was going to flip. There was a reason z-Bo was up for lynch, there's only 1 scum/sk most likely. How was clarity so sure he was town? Why didn't he hard defend him more if he thought z-Bo was town? That, and yes, Clarity's interactions with Hapa are weird. Djo I've been getting townie vibes from u lately, so I'm thinking it's down to SnB and Clarity right now, with SnB in the lead | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 19 2012 02:06 Clarity_nl wrote: Okay Djo, I just wanted to make sure, thanks. @ debears And all of that led to..... "Zbo you are a liability and more likely scum than snb" ?????? I don't understand. Read points 1thru 5 ffs. It's right there in your quote | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 19 2012 02:40 Djodref wrote: @ debears I'm a little sad that you switched from S&B and BH to S&B and Clarity. Could you tell me what changed your mind ? Are you dropping BH for real or just for the moment ? I've been thinking about BH lately and I think that we can get him setup-wise at the end if he is a bad guy. I mean, SK or scum, he would have to go at LYLO and his fake claim could be proved because the rightful blues would have been revealed at this point (dead or claimed blues). What do you think ? BH is starting to make cents. And his jk claim so early man....idk He's by not means town but I'm not willing to lynch him today | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On November 19 2012 02:44 Clarity_nl wrote: In fact, I even pointed out that you calling zbo town because he had both cross and hapa on him was dumb, and you responded like this: Did you see how hapa soft defended him at the end when he switched to me?? | ||
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