I still find it weird that he would park his vote on a to be modkilled person when I'm sitting there with 4 votes. He should have out the last vote on me if he is town
Newbie Mini Mafia XXVIII - Page 8
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debears
United States2516 Posts
I still find it weird that he would park his vote on a to be modkilled person when I'm sitting there with 4 votes. He should have out the last vote on me if he is town | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
actually, not lynching me works in good favor of mafia, especially since they know I'm town. I am the scummiest looking player. If they don't have to lynch me, they can get away with another nk, while everyone thinks its me. I was a lynch that should have happened. Now, we are allowing the last mafia to get another nk while I live until I'm lynched. That's why I find it suspicious. | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
stop with this concede bullshit. A competitor will never concede. You are going to sound like an idiot for saying it so many times when I flip town | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Um your constant attacks on him? You voted for me early d3 (that's the previous day right?) and then just disappeared. Then, you vote Z-Bo and disappear again. You don't seem to care too much about who gets lynched. Your most contributing post was a meta read on Alsn that ended up being wrong. Also, you refuse to believe Z-Bo's rc but believe Djos. Z-Bo's rc is extremely likely to be true with the lack of a medic claim and the lack of a nk night1. Z-Bo's actions and words have indicated a veteran's mindset. When I pointed out his "scumslip", you were way too eager to jump on it. On October 06 2012 08:22 Shady Sands wrote: Wait, I didn't see this coming in. Wow. Yeah, everyone who is still on the fence about ZB: READ THE ABOVE TEXT PLEASE You didn't even let him explain himself. Instead, you hoot and holler at everyone. Your actions are scummy, the scummiest out of anyone here. | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
I would say I'm the best lynch to clarify my alignment for a possible mylo. Other than that 1) SS - his actions indicate scum 2) RSC - I gotta look through his filter again but he hasn't been too active 3) SDM - His refusal to vote for me for the lynch is weird as I said before. He is less confirmed due to the two rc's. It would make sense that we don't have a super strong scumread at this point if SDM is indeed scum. However, it would be infering that SDM played lights out. It's still possible though. 4) Djo - you have used the noobie card to shade your scummy actions, but it makes sense from a cop perspective to keep a target off your back. However, this is no actual way to prove your claim (the lack of a counterclaim is good support though). 4) Z-Bo - confirmed town to me unless a medic claims | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
Also spoilers would be appreciated | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
Getting back from drinking fortunately i wrote the post when i was sober! | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
However, one person has managed to avoid the spotlight throughout the whole game. He has not had anyone actually attack (besides Z-Bo day 1, but that was an argument over the validity of my defense of SDM early). That person is SDM. Recently, his refusal to vote me in the lynch set off some alarms in my head. I've looked through his filter and found some things that don't make townie sense. The Association with Kush After SDM hardcore shut down kush and voted kush, pointing out multiple scumslips, this is all that kush had to say to him + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 06:33 kushm4sta wrote: sdm you make no sense. I tried hard not to make scumslips last game. this game I did not. because I am not scum. I don't know if any of you guys have had this experience but when everyone wants to lynch you and you are definitely going to get lynxhed, it just feels like why am I going to waste my time writing cases and making arguments for this shitty town. that's gonna kill me anyway. I'm actually starting to hope I get lynched to teach town a lesson.. all scums put your votes right here. easiest d1 ever I hope you guys win. Notice how kush does not flame, OMGUS, or insult SDM in any manner here. This is the only time kush addresses Sonic, and he does it in a neutral manner. Compare that to the reactions of kush to Dp (town), Z-Bo (town), and Stutters (town) when they all accused him. To me, Kush made a defense. The only neutral reaction he had to his early accusers is SDM. What this indicates to me is that kush was expecting SDM to attack him, making his post not a reaction but a response to an accusation he knew knew was coming. Overconfidence On September 30 2012 04:59 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:In my mind these are good reasons to be suspicious of Debears. We most certainly need to push for more information from other players as well though. If XXVII thaught me anything it was that I have a tendency to get way overconfident in my reads. This is actually wrong. If anything, it should have taught SDM to be more confident in his reads. He had me pinned down but let me off the hook last game. He stopped pursuing me because of a misunderstanding of thrawn's lynch the last lurker comment. On October 04 2012 01:46 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Yeah I agree. I don't think it's guaranteed, overconfidence is a bitch, but it looks like a good start. Another quote talking about overconfidence. This is about not getting too confident in the endgame and losing because of it. The weird thing is that SDM disappeared after the lynch, on a weekend when he should have more time than the week. Yet, he hasn't posted anything. Is he overconfident? Seems like it. I don't know why either since the whole town has been spinning around in circles since the kush lynch. Time and Indecision Recently, SDM has been saying that he hasn't had time to look over filters + Show Spoiler + On October 05 2012 23:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: D2 voting: Alsn by Darth 1-1 Debears by Alsn 2-1 Debears by Omni 3-1 Alsn by SDM 3-2 Alsn by Debears 3-3 Alsn by Shady 4-4 Unvote + BotN by Boson 3-4 Alsn by Remedy 3-5 Alsn by Djo 2-6 Alsn by Stutters 2-7 Alsn by Boson 2-8 I'd need my conspiracy goggles on to see Boson pushing Alsn here. Read the links, it doesn't looks like Boson tries to nudge the decision in Debears favor. The case doesn't necessarily hinge on this, but it makes it considerably weaker. I'd need more time to read filters... For someone who has a pretty large filter, time doesn't seem to be a problem for SDM. He continued to post during this time, although he needed more to look at filters. + Show Spoiler + On October 05 2012 21:55 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: That's actually an interesting case. It's true Boson ignored the Kush case d1. He had a good case on Debears imo, so I didn't really find it weird he was pushing his own case (we all tend to be biased towards our own cases, at least that's true for me). I need to go back and look up his filter myself. He did switch to Alsn and I can't remember his reasonings. I feel like the individual pieces of evidence you have are not that strong, but they paint an interesting picture. One question I have right off the bat, if it was all a big master plan, why did he initially vote for Debears d2? Seems like it could've caused the noose battle to become one-sided. Anyway, I'll go back and check his filter, I'm not 100% sure of those events. What do you think of the Omni case? Having to read both of your filters I doubt I'll have time to make up my mind on this and I still like it. Yet again, he says he won't be able to make up his mind on stuff since he doesn't have time. Notice the indecisive tone of those posts. On October 05 2012 23:34 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I have no idea what to make out of all this. It doesn't look like a bad case but I'm having a feeling the more I look into it, the more farfetched it becomes. Or you are fucking genius. I mean, both the d1 against Debears and the d2 case against Alsn are good. All of us found them so good we voted at least one of them. I'm still leaning Omni, since he's both very scummy and a complete lurker. but I still got a few more minutes to read filters. More indecisiveness. At this point, SDM seems to be falling apart for no reason. There are more of them...I'm putting them in a spoiler right here if you want to read the rest + Show Spoiler + On October 05 2012 20:49 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I need to grap some food and reread all this stuff, my head is spinning. For now... ##Unvote On October 05 2012 20:23 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Not sure, Shady was my second pick until my brain just recently exploded. Djo's FOS was totally of the blue but I don't necessarily see a strong mafia motivation. If he's mafia maybe he wanted an easy wagon on you and backed off once Debears and I replied? Seems kind of unlikely. On October 05 2012 15:39 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Confirmed. I'll just say right away I'm not jumping a late Boson wagon, at least not if those are the arguments. Shady's post is a joke, what does this even mean? I have no idea what's going on here. On October 05 2012 13:53 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I'm pretty thrawn suggested in XXVII that scum is more likely to be talking about the NK rationale of scum. I don't think I've seen that myself though so I'm not sure whether it's true. Probably not, night actions seems like a rather common talking point in newbie games. Open Ended Answers There are posts where SDM just goes on an explanation and doesn't settle on an opinion. Scum like using these kinds of post to make it look like they are actually saying something when they aren't + Show Spoiler + On October 03 2012 20:43 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I don't know what to make of Debears post-d2 posts because it's putting me in total WIFOM mode and I should probably just ignore it. But disregarding his last posts which obviously could be the result of leveling, is his case stronger than the one I just made? Maybe it's the excitement of novelty, but really? At least I'd say Debears play has been way more pro-town. He has his scummy-looking inconsistneies for sure, but at the same time he was aggressive d1. He tried making cases, get the thread started. He took attention because he was willing to, compare that to Omni who's just cruising by. At least I encourage you to pop out of the Debears bubble we've all been in to look at it. Also, to Debears benefit, does scum really hang on this long when faced by pages and pages of accusations? I know I gave in quickly in XXVI because it seemed pointless. And look at Kush's reaction. That's the only examples I have myself from experience, maybe Debears is different. And maybe you can question if a townie would hang in this long. At least Alsn did. On October 05 2012 13:46 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I know Drazak slipped his medic role in XXVI after his night action and Xatalos picked up on it (that's why I don't really like blue role discussions after night actions). This is not how he slipped though, Drazak slipped it by talking about the rationale of the medic. I feel like this could easily just be scum trying to passively suggest three mislynches (we should lynch Debears, Djodref and Alsn, not because I want to but because Darth wants to) or just a green speculating. Or possibly a medic, but the risk of him being medic AND missing to save Darth seems rather low to me. You need two rather low probability events to coincide for that to be true. Basically I just don't make much out of this post. Notice how in both posts, SDM just revolves around an idea, citing it from each perspective and then jsut sayiing all of them are equally as likely. No actual insight Contributions Going back through SDM's thread, I considered what were his unique cases and scumreads? The only one I actually found was Djo's case. However, SDM quickly dropped the case once suspicion on Djo picked up + Show Spoiler + On October 01 2012 22:09 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: My main focus for today will be Debears, Djo and Alsn. Djo has already responded to the case presented yesterday. The individual evidence presented earlier matches the actions of how I would expect newbie scum to play, but for whatever it’s worth my “feel read” is that he’s coming off as quite genuine. I’ve also been going through his recent posts and can’t seem to find any obvious contridictions or inconcistencies in his explanations. It’s all newbie based explanation that could be made up ex-post but a newbie scum is likely to have fucked up at least some part of the defense, so if this is an innocent newbie charade he’s playing it off rahter well. I’m feeling a bit uneasy going for a Djo lynch and for now I’m leaning towards Alsn or Debears being the better candidates. Both have been posting a metric shit ton lately so I've got my hands full going through everything. I’m looking to complete that half-finished thought I threw out on Alsn yesterday and have a better idea of which lynch I’m liking later today. So, instead of going for his main case, he decides to turn onto me and Alsn, the easy cases. Let's look at his contribution to the Alsn case. + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2012 04:04 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: + Show Spoiler + On October 01 2012 02:36 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I tried to collect my thoughts regarding the Alsn case and I realized when I first commented my perception of the timeline of events was off. On my first read through of the thread, I found Alsn being generally suspicious of everything (overall a town trait) and he had been fucking up with regards to some of the information (perhaps not what I'd expect of Alsn given what I've seen of him before, but I don't find it too weird). Alsn was pretty much a null read to me. Anyway, I went back to look at Alsn's filter. In his first post, which happens around 11 hours after the start of the game, he makes a long ass post about his thoughts on Kush. This in itself might be suspicious to some people, but having played with Kush in XXVI and XXVII he was probably the one player I was thinking the most about who to handle pre-game so I don't find it too weird. In his next post, one hour later, he has read up on the thread and recognizes that Kush has been playing like he Alsn had been afraid he would. He FOS Kush but says he's not convinced. Anyway, when I said I wasn't convinced of the case, I had messed up the timeline of events. I thought Alsn's posts indirectly defending Kush happened not long before Kush completely blew up. If that was the case, I would've found it weird for Kush to blow up soon after his scum buddy showed him support. It seems now that Kush blew up at a later stage when Alsn wasn't around the thread, so that nullifies the argument I thought I had against the case. I felt it was best to put it out there because if I happen to get killed off I don't want to leave with the impression I had some well thought out objection to the Alsn case. I still need to finish reading Alsn's filter and look at the case again, but I won't have time to do it until tomorrow. So yeah, not only did this turn out not to be an argument in favor of Alsn, but the timings makes sense for him being scum. Kush’s posts are actually most reasonable when Alsn is around and he later blows up after Alsn leaves with this post: + Show Spoiler + On September 29 2012 03:50 Alsn wrote: Would just like to say that I'm going to bed a little early today. Will be up in the morning(~12-14 hours before lynch) and making some posts and then on and off until lynch but without major "leaves of absence". Here's hoping that no one is still lurking when I wake up. This in itself isn’t necessarily incriminating but worth noting. Anyway, I’ll focus more on your reasoning for defending Kush. I don’t think it’s been fully covered and reading your filter this is something that doesn’t make sense to me. Intro: + Show Spoiler + When Alsn makes his first post Kush is taking heat from Darth. The Kush case hadn’t really been built yet, but the information is there. This is something Alsn acknowledges in his second post. On September 28 2012 17:56 Alsn wrote: Wow, upon reading the thread I realise that kush has been following the exact pattern I just now specified to be the way not to play if he wanted to absolve himself in my eyes. The OMGUS, the aggression, the flaming, the scum slip. Despite this, he’s going back on what he just said in his first post: On September 28 2012 16:54 Alsn wrote: So to sum up, kush, I can definitely forgive you for your "style" of posting but I will not under any circumstance forgive you for posting shitty content And instead posts: On September 28 2012 17:56 Alsn wrote: However, I definitely want to give him the benefit of the doubt and allow him to actually try and show that he has town's best interest in mind. So until then, while I definitely would like everyone to share their reads on kush so far, that is not enough for D1. We need to start exploring different possibilities because if we decide to lynch kush and he flips green, spending all of D1 talking about him will put us back at square one minus two townies. I'll make another post within an hour or two on another topic as I think I've made myself perfectly clear on where I stand on kush, but right now I need breakfast. So he leaves saying he’s undecided on Kush, trying to steer the discussion in a different direction and if not, him having an easier bus decision (again, not incriminating in itself, but not my main point). Your main arguments for defending Kush is 1) his meta supporting his play and 2) the scum slip not being severe. To me that’s a really weird conclusion to make. Meta: I’m curious about this post because I disagree. I made a post later regarding how I think it didn’t match his town meta, a post you didn’t reply to (basically I think he has shown to be more aggressive, inflammatory and posted more pure crap as scum). Scum slip: Now that Kush is lynched, could you explain what those easy outs you thought of were? I’m really not seeing what easy outs you'd see for Kush straight up calling his attacker townie. Not only do I find your reasons for defending Kush weird, but to me they seem contradictory. Particularly when you claim that he is “basically just writing up whatever is on his mind” (which I think is true to a certain extent). If that’s your meta read on Kush, it would make all sense in the world that the scum slip is an actual scum slip. Typing what’s on your mind is exactly what results in a scum slip like that. So you’re using his meta to make null read on Kush's aggressive and nonsensical posts (which I disagree with) and you downplay his scum slip although it contradicts your meta read. To me this seems like slips in logic in made in order to defend Kush, a defense I now realize is both direct and indirect Notice how a half of his case is a poorly reasoned argument about the timing of Alsn's departure and kush's implosion. It is an argument based on assumptions. Next, he found it weird that Alsn defended kush (which had already been explained a bunch). However, he finds Alsn guilty of something that he had found me innocent of. Alsn had stated multiple times that he was trying to keep the whole town from tunneling kush, which is something that I also said. However, SDM only used that argument to clear me. Notice how all his cases except Djo: (Omni, me, Alsn, SS/Corrosion) are points already brought up. Most of the time he just differently words an argument that has already been presented. The Lynch or Lack Thereof The events leading up to the lynch are a major scumslip in my book on SDM, He shriveled up into an indecisive shell at last moment. Yet, he wanted it that way. On October 02 2012 19:55 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I'm leaning Alsn and I'm hoping to have time to explain why with a good amount of time to the lynch. I agree about the consolidating, but I don't think we're in a hurry. With an early concensus it's easier for scum to blend in, whereas if we wait they'll potentially face the pressure of a bus or save situation (or wait until the last minute to make a decision, which is scummy looking). . However, when it comes to the situation he wants, a last minute switch, he refuses to lynch me to gain information based on the sudden vote changes, which could immensely help the town. 1) It clears the confusion over me being scum or town 2) It gives a better indication of who is scum based on the reaction to the sudden voteswing. Let's start with the beginning of the confusion On October 06 2012 01:41 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Consider that we need to consolidate 5 votes on one player. If Stutters and Omni doesn't show up and Shady doesn't return, the only ones we can consolidate on seems to be Stutters and Omni. Obviously Stutters isn't an option, which leaves Omni. And Omni is a cancerous lurker and scummy as hell. But if Stutters and Omni doesn't show up they might be modkilled anyway. Or is this even guaranteed? What a fucked up situation. I don't understand this post. Instead of talking about whether a player is scummy, he starts rambling on whether others will show up Instead he latches onto Omni, a target we were pretty sure would be modkilled. On October 06 2012 03:03 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I just finished reading his filter and I basically found same case I posted n1 and then him all acting indecisive today. Fuck, I don't know, these last minutes switches make me uneasy. I was starting to get more of town vibe from him until today. More indecisiveness, although this was the exact scenario he wanted so he could get some reads on voting. On October 06 2012 03:07 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: ##Vote Djodref On October 06 2012 03:12 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Meh, I still like Omni better though. What if he comes back back, how many are willing to switch? ##Unvote He unvotes Djo, citing that he liked Omni better. We had already discussed the scenario of voting for Omni if he comes back. Yet, SDM still acts confused. On October 06 2012 03:23 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I've seen setups with miller without a rolechecker in earlier newbies (or some game on TL, not sure what), don't think you can reason this way. Seem like a high % legit claim, is there any way to be 100%? This was about the cop claim. SDM brings up a distracting, pointless question that he knows the answer to. The only way to be 100% on a cop claim is 1) a lynch of the cop 2) a scum lynch that the cop points out. Since 2) was not an option due to no red reads, lynching Djo would've been the only answer. SDM knows this. He is a good player that does not suddenly go full retard like this unless its for a reason. On October 06 2012 03:50 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: If you work with probabilities it means the chance is lower, but of course you never know. Kind of like when you play poker and hit a pretty good hand, the chance of you winning is higher but you never know. Worst analogy ever. Next, he keeps the topic off who to lynch. he keeps talking about the probability of the claim being true, which is a moot point at that time. Notice how he keeps avoiding the topic of who we should lynch On October 06 2012 04:22 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: How many are still around? And wtf happened to Boson? He dropped a huge ass case and then poof. Still nothing on who we should lynch. Just asking if people are around. My biggest scum read is set up for a modkill. Shady just got peeked and I wasn't entirely convinced before hand either. Next on my list would be Debears but I haven't given him much thought today until all this happened. Wasn't convinced about the Boson case and my state of mind isn't optimal for great decision making right now. I wouldn't mind a no lynch. Look hard at this post. Look really hard. He knows his biggest scum read is going to get modkilled at this point, yet his still wants to vote for him. He says he doesn't know on Shady. And finally, HE HASN"T GIVEN LYNCHING ME MUCH THOUGHT AFTER I WAS A HEADLINE ALL GAME IN THE SCUMREADS UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE LYNCH???? That is bs. Total bs. He is definitely lying there. On October 06 2012 04:29 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: If no one's here and want to push anything other than a no lynch I'm going to sleep. I'm really really tired. On October 06 2012 04:56 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Wtf is happening. On October 06 2012 04:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Gah, unvote. On October 06 2012 05:21 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: WTF Alright. Let's summarize his lynch thoughts 1) Indecisive 2) Wants a No lynch 3) Becomes extremely confused 4) Disappears right after his WTF post Now, let's look at townie and mafia motivations 1) Town - He is actually confused. He believes that SS and Me might be town. He believes that Omni may still pop up. Problems with this thought - We all said we would be willing to switch back to Omni if he suddenly showed up to avoid modkill. But btw SS and me, town has to lynch one of us! SS might be town or might be scum. Either way, we need to clarify his alignment. The same is for me (from your guy's angle, I am town). SDM knows this. By taking out one of us, it would have led to more information for town at a stage where we can afford a mislynch. I needed 1 more vote for a lynch. Yet, SDM sits there, suddenly becoming the most indecisive player in the world despite what appeared to be a very good game in which everyone saw him as town. 2) Mafia - By keeping, SS and me(especially me) around, a mafia has the opportunity to take advantage of the confusion it will create for town. He can get away with nks that will easily be blamed on me and SS until our alignments are cleared up. He can act on the confusion in the thread and hide behind not forcing a vote (despite the fact that he stated earlier that he wanted a last minute vote situation). SDM, you're looking pretty scummy right now ##unvote ##vote: Sonic Death Monkey All I ask from all the town that is left is to look at this case multiple times. Read SDM's filter. After I get lynched, I feel that SDM is the most likely scum. JUST READ WITH TOWNIE GOGGLES FOR NOW. VOTE ME. LYNCH ME. AND THEN TAKE HIM DOWN. | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
Don't be a retard. Read the case. Start assuming that I'll flip town. You haven't won this. Your apathy towards the end game is really annoying if you are actually town. If you are mafia (very slight chance to me), then I hope the other town catch on this. Your acting arrogant. You aren't as good as you think (none of us are). Seriously, figure it out. At least SDM doesn't ride around on a pompous horse telling everyone that they're bad. Try to improve. Try to actually reevaluate your reads. This is the hardest part of the game for town. This is where you can make improvements. | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
Can we make a bet? If i flip scum, you can name what you want from me. If i flip town, you auto lynch sdm | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
Besides, did you even read my case on Sdm? I've already conceded that i will be lynched. At the point that i realized your vet claim seemed confirmed, i decided to do something stupid so that i would get decisively lynched, whicj would be the best move for town, not counting an sdm lynch. Sdms bus on kush wouldn't be a mastermind play. It would be a smart play. Kush was under immense pressure, regardless of dps vote withdrawal. Eith lesrah not showing up, the smart play would be to gain town cred while not starting the bus. By the point that stutters voted, it was pretty certain that kush would be lynched | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On October 08 2012 04:52 Z-BosoN wrote: I read your bullet points and found they were pretty weak, but of course, I'm under the bias you are scum. The only correct thing there is the assumption you are getting lynched. What, you want me to switch just because you pulled a "I acknowledge I'm getting lynched, but I nevertheless I want to sacrifice myself and make sure SDM dies after me?" I'm doing exactly what you said. Lynching you. Then if by some miracle you aren't scum I'll reevaluate and think outside the box for my last remaining night. This is all i ask from you z-bo. Make sure i get lynched. Vote me. Until i get lynched, work under the assumption that I'm town. In other words, i am confirmed town until i am lynched. If i am mafia, what i say wont matter since itll be end of game if I'm town, it gives us another opinion. So reread my sdm case under the assumption I'm townie before u get rushed. Ill post some more thoughts here soon once i get back to my computer | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
SDM, you suddenly found me to be a townie after d2's lynch. Let me go back and examine why. + Show Spoiler + On October 03 2012 01:34 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: About the Debears case: My argument for wanting to lynch Alsn instead of Debears is that between the two of them, I think Debears' motivations are less clearly scummy. While I feel like Debears has been acting like I would expect scum to act in a lot of the situations he’s been in, that doesn't make his motivations exclusively scummy. As an example, I've found Debears smoothly jumping Kush's wagon to be suspcious, but reading Debears' filter I don't end up convinced that's the case. For this to be suspicious, it requires the assumption that he had dropped his initial suspicions. Looking back at his posts around that time, I don't think that's clear: + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 13:24 debears wrote: Our main goal is to lynch mafia. Yes, kush has said some scummy things. However, I'm not gonna go around parading this early saying "kush is scum. Kush is scum. OMFG". Also, let the man defend himself instead of trying to rally everyone active behind your cause so early. If he is scummy, the votes will come. Anyhow. I see two others who have suspiciously posted. I'm pretty sure I've made similar arguments myself, that we gain more information by focusing on multiple suspects. The same can be said for him dropping his suspicion on Djo. Throwing out light suspcicions early on in order to get things started isn't really anti-town. Looking back at his original case, he doesn't seem to push it that hard and honestly I don't find the inconsistency of dropping it as weird as a lot of others seem to: + Show Spoiler + On September 28 2012 13:24 debears wrote: @Djoref Djoref, I don't like that statement at all. That's the second post you bring up about the likelihood of lynching a townie d1. As town, you should never have that mentality. I would probably less likely to bring this up if you were a total nooby. However, you said you "know Kush's meta" which means you have some decent understanding of the game for a noob. By saying this, it seems that you are setting yourself an excuse to be indecisive later in the day when the lynch voting comes around. Alone, it isn't much. However, your other posts don't help. After playing mafia last game, I feel like heavy lurking is a bad play for mafia. It puts too much pressure on you are as a scum. Instead, posting lightly without much substance is more mafia indicative. Yet again, I feel you are just looking like you are contributing without saying much. Especially when you already covered your thoughts in a previous post. Notice how you are just repeating points? It isn't helpful to us. Next post A two sentence, two question post. I don't like these. They are worthless. Also, this question came quite a bit later after darthpunk already was asking questions about joking. You seem to be sheeping onto darth's case against kush. Yet again, this post is just repeating what darth is saying. Another question. I don't like this. Your early posts are indicative of a semi-active scum. Sheeping, question posts, and rehashing things already said multiple times. Basically I think a lot Debears actions look scummy, but it's not farfetched to see various possible motivations in them. You can argue for a convergence of evidence type case, that when a lot of weaker evidence is pointing in the same direction, there’s often something to it. I think that’s a valid argument and barring scum slips like Kush’s that’s often how scum is found, but I don't think Debears’ story is as incoherent as Alsn’s. I think both have perfectly reasonable “scum stories”, but I find Debears' "town explanations" more believable. If I look at Debears’ story, I can see reasonable explanations for his actions. If I look at Alsn’s story, I just don’t see how I’d ever reach his conclusions. He’s defending Kush with arguments I find weird and I think those can easily be the result of artificially searching them (scum) rather than just naturally reacting (town). Alsn is also more clearly contradicting himself in my opinion. Particularly the part where, despite his introduction post d1, he’s still not liking a Kush lynch on d2 (aka Act IV). Then, your next post that talks about me more than one line. + Show Spoiler + On October 03 2012 20:43 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I don't know what to make of Debears post-d2 posts because it's putting me in total WIFOM mode and I should probably just ignore it. But disregarding his last posts which obviously could be the result of leveling, is his case stronger than the one I just made? Maybe it's the excitement of novelty, but really? At least I'd say Debears play has been way more pro-town. He has his scummy-looking inconsistneies for sure, but at the same time he was aggressive d1. He tried making cases, get the thread started. He took attention because he was willing to, compare that to Omni who's just cruising by. At least I encourage you to pop out of the Debears bubble we've all been in to look at it. Also, to Debears benefit, does scum really hang on this long when faced by pages and pages of accusations? I know I gave in quickly in XXVI because it seemed pointless. And look at Kush's reaction. That's the only examples I have myself from experience, maybe Debears is different. And maybe you can question if a townie would hang in this long. At least Alsn did. Ok let's summarize your reasons for me seeming town. 1) I was aggressive d1 2) Scum doesn't hang on that long faced with pages of accusation Two pretty piss poor reasons to view me as town, especially when you say that I definitely have my scummy looking inconsistencies. Also, based on your argument earlier, right now I am town. I am being extremely aggressive and active. I have the spotlight. And I am hanging on and contributing what I can before I get lynched while looking scummy. Contradiction no? Here is the main thing that showed me that SDM is scum. The rest of the my original case is stuff I found looking back hard at his filter. The Lynch or Lack Thereof The events leading up to the lynch are a major scumslip in my book on SDM, He shriveled up into an indecisive shell at last moment. Yet, he wanted it that way. . However, when it comes to the situation he wants, a last minute switch, he refuses to lynch me to gain information based on the sudden vote changes, which could immensely help the town. 1) It clears the confusion over me being scum or town 2) It gives a better indication of who is scum based on the reaction to the sudden voteswing. Look hard at this post. Look really hard. He knows his biggest scum read is going to get modkilled at this point, yet his still wants to vote for him. He says he doesn't know on Shady. And finally, HE HASN"T GIVEN LYNCHING ME MUCH THOUGHT AFTER I WAS A HEADLINE ALL GAME IN THE SCUMREADS UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE LYNCH???? That is bs. Total bs. He is definitely lying there. Alright. Let's summarize his lynch thoughts 1) Indecisive 2) Wants a No lynch 3) Becomes extremely confused 4) Disappears right after his WTF post Now, let's look at townie and mafia motivations 1) Town - He is actually confused. He believes that SS and Me might be town. He believes that Omni may still pop up. Problems with this thought - We all said we would be willing to switch back to Omni if he suddenly showed up to avoid modkill. But btw SS and me, town has to lynch one of us! SS might be town or might be scum. Either way, we need to clarify his alignment. The same is for me (from your guy's angle since you think I'm scum, I am town). SDM knows this. By taking out one of us, it would have led to more information for town at a stage where we can afford a mislynch. I needed 1 more vote for a lynch. Yet, SDM sits there, suddenly becoming the most indecisive player in the world despite what appeared to be a very good game in which everyone saw him as town. 2) Mafia - By keeping, SS and me(especially me) around, a mafia has the opportunity to take advantage of the confusion it will create for town. He can get away with nks that will easily be blamed on me and SS until our alignments are cleared up. He can act on the confusion in the thread and hide behind not forcing a vote (despite the fact that he stated earlier that he wanted a last minute vote situation). Finally, @SDM WHY DID YOU NOT GO OVER MY FILTER AT ALL DURING ALL OF DAY 3 WHEN YOU SAID MY ACTIONS WERE SCUMMY AND I WAS THE OTHER MAIN LYNCH CANDIDATE? WHY DID YOU NOT VOTE ME RIGHT BEFORE LYNCH, THEN DISAPPEAR AFTER A MOVE THAT WOULD BE STUPID FOR A TOWNIE TO MAKE? WHY WAS YOUR VOTE PARKED ON OMNISCIENT WHO WE KNEW WOULD GET MODKILLED? Remember, Z-Bo, SS, and RSC, mafia make mistakes too. I feel that this was a HUGE scumslip by SDM. Look at his rebuttal post. HE DOES NOT MENTION THE MAIN POINT OF MY ARGUMENT AGAINST HIM. Why? BECAUSE HE IS SCUM AND HE KNOWS I'M RIGHT. HE HAS NO DEFENSE. + Show Spoiler + On October 08 2012 04:23 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: I'm up to date again. Seriously Debears, wtf? Your case reeks of desperation. I don't get how on earth you end up getting me associated with Kush. It seems to me Kush was less inflammatory against people not cursing at him or telling him he was scum in bolded, red versals. That might have something to do with it, I don’t know. What a weird argument coming from someone who tried to avoid pushing Kush despite him looking scummy as hell. Overconfidence: I'm not sure you understood what made me suspicious of you in XXVII. XXVII stuff in here: + Show Spoiler + One part was because you made a lengthy defense of thrawn for no real reason. I think this was the legit part. The other part was something I still think was a genuine misunderstanding (thrawn's intentions), which was why I thought the case was made weaker. My #1 scum read d1 was Sharrant. I really liked that case and it had 2-3 good motivations behind it. After I was killed off n1 I just followed the game in the Obs QT. On d2 I was confident Stutters was scum. On d3 I was confident Atreides was scum. So basically all my 3 strongest reads in XXVII turned out wrong. You couldn't know this because you were still in the game so I'll give you a pass on this one, but this is all in the XXVII Obs QT. Time and indecision: Shady's post on Boson pissed me off at first because he had been dodging my questions for a long while. I responded barely reading his case because given the quality of his earlier cases I was sure it was complete crap. When Shady started replying I realized I had to go back to understand wtf he was talking about, as anyone can see my attempts in replying to him were just messed up at first. Open-ended answers: Seriosuly, what kind of argument is this? In the first bolded part it's clear I think (based on my experience) it's less likely for scum to hang on for this long. But since my experience is limited to two games I was looking for opinions from others as well. The second bolded part, I just don't think the argument they were making held much weight and it made sense to point that out. Contributions: I thought Djo came off scummy d1/n1 and I pointed it out. In the end I thought Boson's cases made more sense. Considering the validity of other cases kind of seemed to be a good idea. And I don't get why you'd say my Omni case wasn't original or at least added a lot of weight to it with new argumetns. About Alsn, wtf? My arguments against him wasn't based on him pointing out that focusing on others would be good for town, but that he was directly defending him (read my post again) using weird arguments. I by no means "cleared" you because you suggested focusing on others, but at least it could have town motivations. Indecisive again: I was being indecisive here for sure. How on earth wouldn't I be? If you go read my d3 filter I basically never considered you for lynch d3. I was highly suspicious of Omni and Djo, quite suspicious of Shady and had moments of doubts wrt Boson. In the end Omni was likely to head for modkill, Djo just claimed cop, Shady had been peeked and I decided the Boson case was weak. All of a sudden all my d3 considerations had gone out the window. And at this point you expect me to me mr decisive? Last time I pushed a last minute switch I hadn't thought over I caused the mislynch of Drazak. When i got back all hell had broken loose. The only thing I had time to react to was that Boson had seemingly become a lynching target and claimed vet. Lynching him made no sense at all. And somewhere you also argue that my recent absence from the thread is somehow scummy? Gah, how is all this not just an act of desperation? ##Vote Debears I have made big cases on every single person in this game besides Lesrah and RSC. I have not shared most of them with you guys. Why? Because I only present ones that make the most sense to me. OUT OF ALL MY CASES THIS GAME, THIS ONE MAKES THE MOST SENSE. | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On October 08 2012 05:40 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Steaming off a bit I have no idea what your town motivations would be, Debears. How did you switch so fast between SS being scum and onto me? Your case against starts with you saying both of us are likely scum and somehow ends with you being willing to bet anything on me being scum. It makes no sense unless it's a scum desperation move. That's a lie. Let me quote the beginning of my case against you. + Show Spoiler + On October 07 2012 16:23 debears wrote: Aright guys, I'm gonna put something new into the thread. Considering that Djo and Z-Bo are pretty much confirmed at this point, I was wondering why we are having so much trouble this game with finding the last mafia. My conclusions: The last mafia is playing a hell of a game. Looking at this, I've been wondering who is capable of this. At this point, I'd see Z-Bo, SDM, and SS. Z-Bo is confirmed. SS has said some scummy things and is at threat of being lynched. However, one person has managed to avoid the spotlight throughout the whole game. He has not had anyone actually attack (besides Z-Bo day 1, but that was an argument over the validity of my defense of SDM early). That person is SDM. Recently, his refusal to vote me in the lynch set off some alarms in my head. I've looked through his filter and found some things that don't make townie sense. In no way do I say Z-Bo is likely scum. I say he is confirmed town. YOU ARE LYING | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
On October 08 2012 09:48 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Where in God's name did I say you thought Boson was scummy? Um how about you read the quote i posted in my post in the spoiler. Its in the red. Duh | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
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debears
United States2516 Posts
On October 08 2012 09:45 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Jesus, read my filter. The second post of mine is arguing why I think Omni is more suspicious, not proclaiming you as town. I also said we needed to focus on others because we had been discussing you for a week. I never did, because when Shady stumbles into the thread with all kind of messy posts, I got more suspicious of him. I also had to make up my mind on Boson because the final Shady case made kind of some kind of sense (so i checked the d2 voting and after that considered it weak). Djo came off as weird as well d3, I didn't know what to make of him jumping on the Shady's silly ideas instantly. And he was being quite insistant on his town read on Omni eventhough I found that case really good (finally giving in and voting on him because it'd make him post better). I didn't know what to make of that and closer to EOD I checked Djo's filter as suggested by Boson. This is where my focus was. When it all finally blew up with the cop claim, I had put no focus on you whatsoever and was quite happy to make sure my #1 scum read would get killed off. If he didn't flip red we'd still be in a good d4 situation where we actually could think things over instead of having a repeat of the Drazak fuck up. And I addressed this in my last post, I just didn't spell it all out in detail because it's all in my fucking filter that you've supposedly read. This is a bs excuse. You thought my actions were scummy, yet you never in d3 looked at my filter? What kind of scumhunting is that? The only reason i don't check someones filter at least once a cycle is if i am pretty sure they are town. Why in the hell would you not check my filter if you are town, if you found me scummy, and if you are actually scumhunting. Hell even when i had a town read on you i checked your filter from this game and other games. You're argument makes no sense from a townies perspective. You're no lynch makes no sense from a townie perspective. | ||
debears
United States2516 Posts
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