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Remedy isn't a clear case at all, he's a total crapshoot. I think it's just as likely he's a confused town instead of a mafia. I don't see how anyone can make a strong read off of what little he said. My case against thrawn is what I'd consider a strong case.
6 out of 11 people have voted for Remedy...so either all the town is convinced that he's mafia, or some of his bandwagon voters are mafia themselves.
I should have done this much earlier ##Vote: thrawn2112
The one advantage to lynching Remedy is that, even if he's town, we don't lose an important poster but we do gain good reads on the people who voted for him. In that way I prefer him over dandel.
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Why stutters though? I think he's also a random vote, he can easily turn up one way or another...you seemed against lynching him before
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@debears, I didn't really see much substance in your case vs Dandel. A lot of it was based on your case against rethos (which I disagreed with)
and all thrawn really did was point out the stupid things that remedy said. Again, I can't see the difference here between town mistakes vs mafia intentional bad posting.
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So it looks like 3 town and 6 mafia still alive? Not including the possibility of SK
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does anyone still think thrawn is town?
I'll literally eat my keyboard if he avoids the lynch this time around
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I think that killer's posts have improved a bit since day 1. Looking at his filter from the previous game, he didn't post much there either. Lynching him at this point would be a joke when we can make good reads on other players. If he's town, that makes him a good topic of discussion for scum. Hell, just look at how the last two lurker lynches turned out.
Seems like everyone has suspected kush at some point or another...after the recent flips I'm leaning on him being town though. The way he switches stances so easily looks genuine to me, I don't think scum would be as likely to do that.
@thrawn - hopefully you and jacob will be the topics of discussion for today, so your post is a good diversion to that. A trainwreck of a post at that.
On September 22 2012 12:37 thrawn2112 wrote: Atreides the timezone explanation is not the one I was looking for that would set aside my doubts about your coming into the thread right as the deadline happened but it's believable. Also, the fact that marv posted about the no-lynch idea right after you posted your last post before deadline makes me accept that your no-lynch comment probably wasn't some sort of lie that you made up on the spot and had no prior knowledge of. The one thing that I'm stuck on is why you would think a no lynch would be better than lynching killing who you had previously said was an acceptable lynch. But anyways those were the main points of my N1 case against you. Apart from those points you've said some questionable things but quality =/= indication of alignment especially in a newbie game so you're down to a null-read. Wanna see you post more as that improves the quality of the read I can make on you.
I don't think atreides should be a lynch candidate. The stuff I just posted is enough for me to not have a scumread on him anymore. He has been lurking but if we have to go for a lurker stutters is a much better choice.
That was your post from earlier...and yet you bring up the same arguments AGAIN. Before I was a null-read, and now you FOS me? For the same thing?
You address only some of the stuff I made in that post, the stuff that I myself admitted was weak. You didn't respond to my strongest point: + Show Spoiler +Next, what I think is a huge slip, his vote on drazak: Initially he believes that both killer and drazak are scummy lurkers and is willing to vote for either: On September 20 2012 07:16 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2012 07:10 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Fuuuuck, we don't have a decent counter wagon to Sharrant or Cubu. How many posters are even around right now? How many would consider changing their vote? I'd say killing or drazak Sharrant votes drazak as a lurker policy lynch. Sonic votes based on the change in his meta and his bandwagon vote on Sharrant. Kush votes and admits to bandwagoning. Thrawn copycats Sonic's reasoning and votes drazak after kush. Drazak's post: On September 20 2012 07:27 drazak wrote: Ok, I'm home now.
When I decided to vote sherrant I honestly was just bandwagoning, I couldn't find anyone with a good read other than the lurkers.
For the moment, I'd much rather vote cubu, he doesn't have anything to add and if he does flip mason it confirms our other mason. I was on my phone earlier so I had no way to write a longer more descriptive post. I'm going to go through some filters during night and see if I can come up with some suspicions to start D2 with, presuming I make it through the night. Thrawn's post: On September 20 2012 07:30 thrawn2112 wrote: I would go with drazak. Previously my lurker lynch back up was killing but drazak made that retarted vote. I've also had earlier supicions of him maily because of his first post, where he goes out of his way to defend accusations against him that haven't even happend yet.
So killing/drazak but I say drazak.
vote count?
Once the focus is on drazak, thrawn changes his opinion and believes drazak is the stronger vote. Now, what really stands out to me is this: drazak literally admitted to bandwagoning. In thrawn's recent post in the previous page, he says this: + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2012 13:53 thrawn2112 wrote: I've been looking at the final vote count. I think it's very very safe to assume that at least 1 mafia voted for drazak. The people who voted for drazak are: Sharrant, Sonic Death Monkey, kushm4sta, thrawn2112, Stutters695. So then I removed sharrant, sonic, and myself, which leaves kush and stutters. Out of those two I think it's more likely stutters is scum. And when I look at their votes, kush made that retarded "ok looks like drazzak is the bandwagon then" vote. Originally it looked suspicious but consider this... why the fuck would a mafia player bandwagon onto a townie lynch and then use such a terrible phrase? Especially to even include the word bandwagon? That imo, is a colossal error that I don't think anyone would be capable of. (well maybe yourharry would find some way to rationalize it) So, that leaves stutters who already looks suspicious, both for lurking, and because of how he stops lurking to pop in the thread once someone calls him out.
So if all the follwoing is true, Stutters has to be scum
1: At least 1 mafia voted for drazak 2: There are no holes we've overlooked in sharrant's mason claim 3: My reasoning about kush's vote is extremely likely to be correct (4: and an additional one for people other than myself would be that thrawn is town)
For me of course 4 is 100 true. 2 is so close to 100 percent true it may as well be 100 percent. Then I think 3 is the next most likely and 1 is probably the part of the theory I have the most hesitations about. However I think 1 and 3 are solid enough.
So in other words I think stutters is a pretty damn good lynch option. Not only for all the reasons just mentioned but also because he's a huge lurker. So kush isn't suspicious because mafia would never admit to bandwagon posting, but drazak was? This is a very big contradiction.
That's two times you've been completely contradictory. Wanted to get this out there first, going to respond to some other things in the meantime.
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it makes sense I think, he just put them in the wrong order
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actually nevermind that, just realized they were posted on different days
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Yeah just got confused for a minute when I saw 11:17AM -> 6:59 AM
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On September 24 2012 07:21 thrawn2112 wrote: I was reading sonic's filter and the arguments he made against you looked good, and then he got nk'd, so I decided it was time to look at your filter again. And as for me lowering my suspicion because of the 1 minute delay between your last post and the no-lynch blue post, that doesn't point to town or scum. You could have just then figured out that no-lynch was a possibility if you are town or scum. My new case is about the context of those posts. You post right after deadline but before drazak flipped green, saying how you didn't approve of the drazak lynch. Do you see how that looks scummy? Then you make a very strong suggestion that there could be a large presence of mafia among the drazak vote, and since you've said that the only thing that has happened are people who voted for drazak flipping green/blue, or becoming confirmed masons.
I don't actually know what you're trying to say here. Again, you rehash the same arguments. The only new thing you've brought up is that "sonic accused atreides, sonic died, therefore atreides is mafia" You actually accused Remedy of making this same argument:On September 21 2012 12:53 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2012 09:42 RemedySC wrote: Okay, I don't think mafia got lucky in killing a blue.
Looks like other than the Sharrant read, Sonic's biggest read was Atreides-, Debears, and Killing.
All three have had good arguments made against them. Possibly they they thought Sonic might have more info. Remedy this post sets off my scum alarms. I son't have any evidence (and neither do you) why mafia would have killed sonic other than that he was really townish and I don't think anyone suspected him. So when you start talking about how they might have killed him because of his reads it just makes me think there's some manipulation going on behind his nightkill and your post. Stark contrast to what you just said earlier. "So what I'm seeing is the person who mafia decided it was important to kil was someone who was strongly going after atreides" I'm chalking that to three big scum slips now.
On September 24 2012 07:21 thrawn2112 wrote: I said my vote for drazak was mostly because of that vote. Yes, kush made a shitty vote, but there's a difference between them. Drazak's vote was just s simple vote. No explanation for the vote or anything. While kush's vote did look strange, it was so strange thatI didn't believe a mafia would make it. I don't think a mafia would come out and state: "hey guys I'm joining the most popular bandwagon."
I don't buy this, but it's up to the jury on that one.
And @ debears and Sharrant: good god, when I said what roles there were it was a question not a statement. I don't know how you can even consider this scummy in the slightest.
On jacob, arlier when pressure was on me, he sort of defended me rather than joining a bandwagon. So he gets small points for that. I looked at kush's case against him so far, will look into him myself next. I didn't actually know he existed until day 2...
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Awesome, I'm not alone now. If kush and sparky vote then we should have majority.
One thing that disturbs me is that thrawn said he was roleblocked both nights. From a town perspective, this makes sense if mafia believes that thrawn is a blue. From a mafia perspective, this makes no sense. Why would a town roleblock thrawn night 1? At that time, he was basically the unscummiest player in the game. So if we assume thrawn is mafia, we have to assume that he's been lying about the roleblocks. (Basically same point kush made)
Another point is that, who would be his teammates? I looked at the interaction between him and jacob, and I can see those two easily being scumbuddies. Nobody else is an obvious fit into this though.
Those are just small reservations though, I think the case against him is overwhelming at this point.
##Vote: Thrawn2112
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I also think the vote against killing is pretty scummy. We're at the point where a mislynch most likely costs us the game, and there's no way in hell that you have a strong enough argument against him with how little he's posted. Especially how (as Sharrant said) a no-lynch is still a possibility. I believe the possible roles are:
5 town, 3 mafia 5 town, 2 mafia, 1 SK 4 town, 3 mafia, 1 SK
I don't think the third one is likely. I don't want to completely dismiss the chance of SK but I also think it's very unlikely.
On September 24 2012 19:37 thrawn2112 wrote: Atreides are you scum?
You caught me, I surrender.
On September 24 2012 19:37 thrawn2112 wrote: You're the 2nd person to jump on my mislynch bandwagon and you're trying to call out kush and sparky to do the same. I wouldn't have a problem with you voting me because I've been your top pick for awhile but specifically mentioning kush and sparky reeks of bad intentions.
What bad intentions could I possibly have? Why would I call people out to vote when, as scum, I wouldn't need to?
I want to focus the vote. Sparky is confirmed town, and kush is most likely town IMO. If you're scum, then I think kush is almost certainly town. It makes sense that we would want to vote for the same person, rather than being thrown into chaos by scum.
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I agree that town blues should roleclaim today, we have to get the lynch correct this time so there's no reason to hold it. Would clarify the whole roleblock mess.
On September 24 2012 21:09 Dandel Ion wrote: Also, a no-lynch would be absolutely terrible and it would mean we are throwing the game. Which I don't want to do. It would put us at 4 town and 3 mafia after the third night. There's a chance to win, but a bad one at that. I agree that it's a bad idea, I just wanted to point out that it's still better than doing ANOTHER coinflip lynch (Killing).
On September 24 2012 23:28 JacobStrangelove wrote: Flip blue, not town blue... as town with no help from anyone or discussion about blues and who could be blue why would one of them possibly flip blue... actually I am going to bold this I want an answer, for the most part you seem town but this set alarm bells off
Slip of the keyboard, I meant to say town. That way it makes sense considering the sentence beforehand. Scum wouldn't be able to tell the difference between green / blue anyway...
Going AFK for a few hours but I can check from my phone
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On September 25 2012 01:51 Dandel Ion wrote: ##vote thrawn2112
Thrawn is scum Jacob is scum too. Either Killing or Atreides are the third one. My eggs are in Atreides' basket because he 1) busses thrawn and 2) thrawn makes a weak-ass case on him to further make him look townie after the flip.
I didn't really have a scumread on Atreides prior, neither on Killing. But the third scum is up for discussion when it's relevant. For now, I say we should lynch thrawn.
You were leaning on debears earlier, but now you vote thrawn without a single word of explanation? And you accuse me of bandwagoning...even though I made it clear after the end of night 2 that I wanted thrawn lynched.
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Looks like we're set on lynching thrawn, which is good. As mentioned, by now the opposition against him is so strong that even mafia will join in.
If thrawn flips red, I have a strong feeling that debears will be town. He was the first to join me against thrawn. Without his post and vote I don't think the bandwagon would be nearly as strong right now.
What we should think about, though, is what to do after thrawn flips red. Killing and dandel joined the bandwagon late, and without any input of their own. Jacob has posted a lot but has said little of importance. I think jacob looks the worst out of these three, skimming through the past game he was town and more confident in his opinions.
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haha, well that's just a matter of opinion
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I'm pretty convinced he's scum after some of the things he's said (look into my posts on him) so why would I want to lynch another? That's what I meant...
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ah damn, by the end I didn't even consider SK as a possibility.
I know I was pretty bad this game. I should have been more active in preventing the day 2 lynch which, at the time, I thought was really bad. A lot of the time I wasn't too confident in my own abilities and ended up being too indecisive
The amount of commitment required to play surprised me a lot, there were times where I just wanted to do something else but felt that I had to post about something. Honestly in day 1 I didn't even know what to talk about, I couldn't get any good reads.
I should've obsed a game first at least haha, I'm hesitant to play again until I figure more stuff out
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