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I'm back! Pamplona was fun.
It also gives me a kinda unique position now in that I feel more like an observer than a player of the last day. So to start off my playing again I am going to post the kind of thing I usually hate posting. A list.
The Scumteam Twelve - I'll just copypaste Bugs's bit here. + Show Spoiler [Why 12 is scum] +On July 08 2012 08:57 NoSmurfHere wrote:1. Twelve never switched his vote off BKE and never actually took a concrete stance on the issue. He simply chose to disappear during the mess in which I was hardcore tunneling and pressuring Katina. While I was forcing slips out of Katina I noted two posts and vowed that town should not forget them. I bring them up once more now: Show nested quote +On July 07 2012 10:32 Twelve wrote: Alright I've read through Hyaach and Katina's filters and I don't see why you are trusting Hyaach over Katina. I had a strong town read on Katina, but after rereading, I realised it was because she defends me from lynches, but its always from one townie to another, so maybe she was exploiting knowing my alliance and trying to trick me into being an ally? Any thoughts? I'm feeling a but lost, but am willing to change my vote. Good god Hyaach if you are lieing about BKE....... Show nested quote +On July 07 2012 10:34 Twelve wrote: any other DT that can confirm these claims from Hyaach? Note that after this, Twelve never came back. He never switched his vote and he never took a stance. He never switched his vote off BKE, and he asked if there was another DT that could verify Hyaach's claims (INCREDIBLY scummy). Why on earth would a townie try to out two blues at once? Definitely not the response I would've expected any town player to make, and definitely something that can be reasonably explained from a scum perspective. Twelve is almost certainly scum and any vigis still alive should shoot the crap out of him. I know I backed off him because of the whole Rastaban deal, but I've changed my mind. It was just scum playing weirdly/suboptimally and I fell for it. Lynch today!
Grush - I don't have much to distinguish him from casualman. Both are completely useless trolls. However, Katina was very vocal on the matter. Casualman scum, Grush town. With the flip, I think we should not ignore this beautiful softdefense on Grush. She stuck by her scumbuddy until the very very end. + Show Spoiler [Katina champions grush] +On July 07 2012 11:11 Katina wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2012 11:01 NoSmurfHere wrote:On July 07 2012 10:57 Katina wrote:On July 07 2012 10:52 Hyaach wrote: u defend bm day one. added post after mkmk lyncht make it seem like you care. add on cases where the ebtire towns are divides in half. bke is my green check too. makes me suspect u even nore. cman is a troll and i dont know what to make of mandanlor and myself? lol. I do care.. The town is just about always half divided. BKE is green on your supposed "check" So trolls can't be Mafia? I find it interesting that you would let a troll live over someone who is posting their reads and trying to help the town find Mafia. You don't know what to make of yourself? Interesting. I would imagine you would have some idea by now. You never answered why you completely ignore grush the troll but not casualman the troll. What separates the trolls? What seperates them is that grush has posts where he actually says something. While casualman goes in active for almost the whole game and pops in to insult people or say "let's lynch this guy!!" I admit I have overlooked grush and a few other people this game. There have been others I can get an actual read on and casualman is just too bad and getting ignored too much to be true.
The third scumster I think we should look at this list of DT claim doubters. Yes, I have a really easy time coming in post-hoc when Katina has already flipped scum, but I did read the thread chronologically, so didn't know for sure Katina had flipped scum. The claim seemed believable: he has a green check on the primary lynch target and a red check on someone else. He didn't make any fancy stuff around it, just said it as it was: he's the DT and got a red check on Katina. However, scum clearly had a good reason to discredit the check and save their godfather, so lets look at who doubted the claim:
- ShiaoPi - Seemed the most likely to be scum, but either scum have a second godfather, or ShiaoPi is town. His late vote switching felt really dodgy, but until all other candidates are cleared, we will have to treat him as town.
- Kurumi - I had a null read slightly leaning town. Am still in doubt, but could be scum simply for his behaviour around the DT claim. + Show Spoiler [ doubting the DT] +
On July 07 2012 10:03 Kurumi wrote: The "DT" is even doubting a frame on Katina on N2(!!!) which is very plausible given that she was in the spotlight and we did not have anyone claim a rb yet. Sorry but I fail to see the logic here, his play is not fluid with what he claims, did he defend BKE hardcore? NO. Did he make a case on Katina and push it, so in case something went wrong we know what's going on? NO. He was just blabbering "vote Katina trust me" Sorry to burst your bubble, but why our DT did not check someone more experienced N1? He wasn't even going anywhere with his "checks" just look at his play. He does eventually go along with the lynch. I want to hear his reasoning in more detail. Kurumi, what convinced you to vote for Katina? + Show Spoiler [Here] +On July 07 2012 10:11 Kurumi wrote: This is the last time I am going to believe a "DT". Fuck it, maybe he's really been busy or whatever the reason for sucky play, he couldn't commit enough. Choo choo. is where you decide to go along with the vote switch.
- VE - I had an early town read on VE based on our fight with BM. However, I slowly cooled on VE when he picked a fight with Bugs (or Bugs with him). Yes, they both backed down, but the whole thing left me feeling wary. His behaviour around the DT check seems to be trying to get Katina to give him a way out of bussing him. A lot of questions for Katina. He could be trying to sort his mind out, or hoping people start agreeing with him. Also note that despite his doubt of the DT, he doesn't actually want to lynch him.
Doubting the DT: + Show Spoiler [Hyaach doesn't read like a DT] +On July 07 2012 14:01 VisceraEyes wrote: Hyaach doesn't read at all like a DT with checks until recently.
Like, I don't see Hyaach defending BKE like he has a green check on him. Not even guarded...like, he mentions BKE and comes to his defense once or twice, but not convincingly like he has a town read on him even.
Ugh...and BKE as a check N1, I don't get that at all. Like, he wasn't reading suspicious of BKE at all, so checking him doesn't really make sense. Would anyone guess that he checked BKE if Hyaach had, for instance, been shot N2? Or that he checked Katina N2?
I'm just struggling with the whole thing and need more time. :/ , + Show Spoiler [but lynch casualman!] +On July 08 2012 02:34 VisceraEyes wrote: I can lynch casual instead of Katina. Just sayin. I'd also be down with lynching grush. As town, you either think the DT is lying and lynch him, or you believe the DT and lynch his red check (unless you have really good reason to believe his check was framed, but VE does not consider this). As scum, however, you want people to doubt the DT, but not lynch him! The DT would flip green and then his target would be lynched the next day. Instead you want to keep the wifom alive and lynch someone completely unrelated, such as, for instance, casualman. Out of the 3 here, I now think VE is most likely scum based on this behaviour.
MajuGarzett - I had a null read on him. It got a bit better with him hunting down Katina, but it's still largely null: I wouldn't be surprised if a scum got on the Katina bus early to avoid the spotlight attention, even if she was the roleblocker.
Mandalor - yes, he had the whole Katina hating him thing going on, but Katina's push never really took off and he has been safe despite the cases she made. This makes me think it could just be two scumsters distancing each other. His whole behaviour around the Katina thing is awkward, talking about there being no need to frame her because her reads were bad. I don't get this at all: scum don't care about reads when framing, they care about who the DT will check and Katina was a good target for the check. So he jumps on the Katina wagon, but has some really awkward reasoning for doing so. Add this to his rather poor filter for the rest of the game. The only thing I don't like is that his only consistent scumspects throughout the game has been Twelve. Twelve is almost certainly scum. Unless he is really into bussing his buddies, he's probably town based on this.
casualman - still unreadable. Probably town based on the Katina link, but could be distancing for all I know, because like the case on mandalor, casualman was never in any danger from Katina's play.
The Townies Acro - confirmed town, imho! Hyaach - barring any really strange shenanigans where Hyaach is a scum fakeclaiming a DT and bussing his roleblocker buddy (instead of a goon) and claiming a greencheck on someone else, Hyaach is a town DT. Given that I like Ockham's razor, that makes Hyaach a town DT. If they really did concoct this plan, then I will nominate it for best scum plan, but for now I'll treat it as a town play by a town DT, which makes Hyaach town. BKE, ShiaoPi - by extension BKE and ShiaoPi are also town. One of them *might* be a godfather, but I will treat them as town, despite their scummy play. Yes, I realize ShiaoPi is in this list twice. No, I don't care! ghost_403 - vig shot a scumster. Given that scumKP seems accounted for I think we can safely assume he's a town vig. Vivax - despite him trying to connect everyone and everything, I think he has cleaned up his play alot and I liked him in the whole play around Katina. I am going to tentatively call him townie.
And that was everybody.
@VE: I know you asked Kurumi, but the answer seems kinda obvious. There's KP missing from D2, so scum probably knew there was a medic. They wifom'd their wifom around a wifom and figured the medic would probably protect the DT, so they shot someone else instead. Shooting Bugs was pretty much a no-brainer. Mattchew is experienced, maybe they got a whiff of blue? Maybe they just wanted to shoot another experienced townie before endgame Who really knows why scum do shit anyway.
And finally: ##vote Twelve
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On July 10 2012 07:30 ghost_403 wrote: By the way, Acro, I'm not giving you confirmed town status in my book. FYI. <3 I guess that's just the way things work. I'd send you my role pm, but it's against the rules
Loan me a gun and I'll shoot scum!
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On July 10 2012 17:25 Mandalor wrote:Show nested quote +On July 10 2012 02:38 BroodKingEXE wrote:On July 02 2012 17:23 Mandalor wrote: For the next day I would like town to vote on another guy from mattchew's list. Could be me, casualman, Twelve, Bill Murray or drwiggl3s. Tbh, drwiggl3s and myself would probably be the best options. There's different people defending both of us so we can get reads on these no matter if the lynched guy flips red or green. Hopefully not blue lol. I think mattchew's analysis is hilariously bad. I just don't know if he's doing that on purpose or not. The way the game is played right now, town puts a lot of faith in him and ET so we should try to find out early if mattchew's and ET's analysis is any good in this game. @Mandalor: To what degree was this post sarcastic? I wanted to see if someone bites. Noone did except Wiggl3s :/ Okay, I'll bite now. What were you trying to achieve with that post? You say you were trying to get people to "bite", but it is full of contradictions, nonsense and martyring. What was the follow-up you planned if someone "bit"?
Your response to wiggl3s is to say that Mattchew is just plain bad and you say you want to try to stop town from sheeping Mattchew. However, my understanding of the Foxtrotter lynch was that it was led by Marvelosity, not Mattchew. All Mattchew did was make a list and add Foxtrotter to it. Mattchew only really gained any traction later.
So why were you so scared of Mattchew?
+ Show Spoiler [wiggl3s' and Mandalor's co…] +On July 02 2012 17:41 drwiggl3s wrote: Also (sorry for some spam here) @ Mandalor. You say we should lynch someone listed in Mattchew's analysis. Yet in the same post you say his analysis is "hilariously bad". I propose that his list is all town.
See how it excludes BKexe for example? On July 02 2012 17:53 Mandalor wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2012 17:41 drwiggl3s wrote: Also (sorry for some spam here) @ Mandalor. You say we should lynch someone listed in Mattchew's analysis. Yet in the same post you say his analysis is "hilariously bad". I propose that his list is all town.
See how it excludes BKexe for example? I agree. However, he's orchestrating town's play right now. He gave literally no reason for the Foxtrotter lynch, yet 9 people jump on the boat and the guy is lynched. I don't think the voters are all mafia. I'd be surprised if there's more than two mafia voting for foxtrotter. Sooo, obviously he holds a lot of weight. I guess he played well in the last mafia games. Best possible scenario is town ignores what he says and we actually kill a red. But I don't think that's going to happen. Both of us just don't hold a lot of weight. You're either a smurf or this really is your first game. And the last mafia game I played is so long ago, I don't think I've played with anyone in this before.
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On July 11 2012 02:43 Twelve wrote: EBWOP: I'm feeling pretty discouraged and almost didn't bother making this post but I still want to win. Please ask yourself if there is a better vote for today. Clearly a majority has a scummy read on me, but what kind of information will you actually gain if(when) i flip green. Most of the people pushing for me are town in my notes so I'm not really sure what town is gonna gain once my lights go out. Anyways, ill be around till lynch time, but if there isnt much additional development from anyone else, I won't have much else to say.
Well, if you're really town, which I really doubt, you could update your list of reads. If you're going to flip scum, don't bother as I am not going to waste time wifom'ing it up about why you marked someone scum or town.
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That flip was not what I was hoping for. So that makes two out of casualman, VE, kurumi, maju and mandalor scum (still assuming Grush is scum).
@Vivax: I'm not sure how your connection case works for confirming me, yourself and kurumi town. I am quite obviously confirmed town, but please explain your reasoning. I'm not ready to accept Kurumi as town, especially not after this flip: my town reads on everybody have taken a dent and I wasn't convinced about Kurumi's townieness in the first place.
Will be rereading filters.
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On July 11 2012 08:59 Vivax wrote: @ Acro
Really? Don't you remember the moment you and Kurumi saved twelve from getting lynched when you switched your vote to ET along with me?
Please tell me which scum player would prefer one mislynch only over a mislynch and a modkill of two townies. Not gonna try and wifom why scum would do it, but honestly I don't see much difference. If scum was confident they could push for a Twelve mislynch later in the game, why not waste 2 mislynches?
Nevertheless, I don't actually think scum masterminded this mislynch, and it was all on us. Nobody had to push the case today, it was already there and ready for us after last night. With nobody pushing alternative cases, everybody just shut up and there was little useful discussion.
Lets not do the same tomorrow. I still want to kill Grush, mainly based on Katina pushing for casualman. At the same time she pushed casualman, she completely ignored grush, despite the two having very similar behaviour this game. Now this is the kind of associative connection case I can work with. However, there are 2 other members of team scum that we need to find, and time is slowly running out. I'll be filtering today and seeing if I missed something in my list yesterday, and updating my spreadsheet with the information that Twelve is town. I suggest everybody else does the same and we actually discuss stuff tomorrow.
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On July 11 2012 19:52 Vivax wrote: The credit for this mislynch goes to katina for defending Twelve.
Looked a bit through the filters:
- casualman asked for a VE lynch all the time. Katina kept asking for a vote on casu, katina also defended twelve. So I'd expect casu to be a possible scum member too, since katina's actions were one-way-WIFOMS imo. Defending town, attacking scum.
Based on what do you draw this conclusion? This can equally well be spun the other way round and it is really dangerous to use this kind of reasoning. Katina *should* have enough experience to lead us either way on this. The reason I found Twelve scummy wasn't Katina defending him so much as him defending Katina. Turns out that connection was false too.
However, if you believe what you say, why do you not follow up with this logic? Why do you want to lynch Grush rather than casualman (or Mandalor)? I try to follow your logic, but you're making it REALLY hard :S
- maju posted a case against katina when she was already set to be lynched. Maju is the type of guy who doesn't troll, keeps activity to a minimum, and doesn't post game changing information at timings where it would matter. He's more readable than grush and casualman cause he doesn't write derp things, but his play fits a scum role with what I could gain.
Given that after all this time I still have a pretty null read on Maju, I agree with this assessment. He is either scum who is flying neatly under the radar or town who does not give a fuck. Distinguishing between the two is really hard to do and I don't know what side of the fence Maju falls.
Katina has a "soft attack" on Maju when ghost asks her what she thinks, but I read it mainly as her voicing what ghost wants to hear, rather than an actual opinion. Ghost, what is your opinion of the exchange, and Maju in general?
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Ghost, you seem to think Grush is a town troll? The most salient mention of grush in your filter seems to be:
On July 07 2012 08:13 ghost_403 wrote: @NSH: AFAIK, grush hasn't actually played any games as scum. He trolls a lot no matter what. I would think he would troll less if he rolled scum. He seems to be trolling more this game. We'll have to keep an eye on him.
Do you still think that? Why? If you think Grush is town, then who do you think we should lynch tomorrow?
For the record, did you find any scum games by Grush? He was town in Bastard 2 and Space Station as well. Really hard to meta game him.
I still want to lynch grush based on these things: Item 1
On July 08 2012 01:54 grush57 wrote: No one claimed getting roleblocked, Katina has been getting pressured a lot, so there IS a good chance he got framed. NSH says he was trapping for this: a scum who knew more about the roles than he should. It could equally well be speculation, but it definitely IS a defense of Katina.
Item 2
On July 07 2012 11:11 Katina wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2012 11:01 NoSmurfHere wrote:On July 07 2012 10:57 Katina wrote:On July 07 2012 10:52 Hyaach wrote: u defend bm day one. added post after mkmk lyncht make it seem like you care. add on cases where the ebtire towns are divides in half. bke is my green check too. makes me suspect u even nore. cman is a troll and i dont know what to make of mandanlor and myself? lol. I do care.. The town is just about always half divided. BKE is green on your supposed "check" So trolls can't be Mafia? I find it interesting that you would let a troll live over someone who is posting their reads and trying to help the town find Mafia. You don't know what to make of yourself? Interesting. I would imagine you would have some idea by now. You never answered why you completely ignore grush the troll but not casualman the troll. What separates the trolls? What seperates them is that grush has posts where he actually says something. While casualman goes in active for almost the whole game and pops in to insult people or say "let's lynch this guy!!" I admit I have overlooked grush and a few other people this game. There have been others I can get an actual read on and casualman is just too bad and getting ignored too much to be true. Honestly, if Grush is town I see no reason for Katina to defend him like this, except very very maybe to be able to say post-hoc "I told you so". Trying to make sense of connections to Katina is hard, though. She fingered Adam as town, but she fingered Twelve and ShiaoPi as town too. We've already screwed up on Twelve and would probably have screwed up with ShiaoPi too if Hyaach's green check hadn't cleared him.
As for casualman? I've got even less of a read on him. It's pathetic really.
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Ghost, mind explaining that spreadsheet? I have my doubts about Maju being scum, mainly from his play around the whole Hyaach/Katina thing: it felt like he was a townie trying to make up his own mind about the thing. He spent a lot of time engaging Katina in discussion and not Hyaach, which is sort of the reverse of what I'd expect from scum trying to catch the DT in a "scumslip". Mind giving your explanation of why he's scummier than grush?
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Hi VE. You want to lynch the coinflips because they're town and it wins you the game? The worst part is that I agree with you. If even one of them is scum we can't risk being left with them at lylo. There's a risk they're both town, but that's a risk we would have to take at lylo anyway.
Out of the two, I favour grush for reasons above, but I want to hear your opinion.
More generally, I want more opinions from you. You've been really really quiet and that is just really really out of character for you (regardless of alignment).
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@Vivax: are you sure we're looking at the same filter? I have him engaging with Katina in like 7 posts after the vote.
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On July 12 2012 08:12 Vivax wrote: Kurumi, would you go for maju or grush first?
Grush's scum defense is scummy. Maju's overall behavior is scummy. I'd lynch em both, but the readable scummy player first.
I was coming up with a long argument about 4 scenarios in which each possibility (scum/scum, town/town, scum/town, town/scum) was considered and explain why it's better to lynch the unreadable guy first, when I realized we were being stupid (not saying my scenarios didn't work out, because they did; it's just a terrible way to decide the lynch).
We should not be considering Grush and Maju together as if it's a packet lynch. We should decide which of the two is scummier and lynch the crap out of him.
My arguments above still stand: Grush is scum.
##vote grush57
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Oh, one more thing:
@casualman:
On July 08 2012 11:19 casualman wrote: also, i reiterate that ve and acro are scum.
i might make a post day 3 if i feel assed to. Make that damned case already, it's 2 days overdue.
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On July 12 2012 18:33 Vivax wrote: And what would you do with maju if grush flips town? Automatically assume he is scum? No. What an absurd question. I'll do the same as I'm doing now. Look for who I think is scum and try to get him lynched. If that is Maju, then I will try to get him lynched. Lots may change in 72 hours.
However, let me flip that question: why do you feel Maju and Grush's alignments are linked? What makes you think one of them is scum and the other town, rather than both scum or both town?
Actually, your whole question is giving me a nasty feeling as if you know something I don't.
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I wouldn't call my wanting to lynch Grush over Maju a defense of Maju, but rather an attack on Grush.
I have said before why I think Grush is scummier than Maju. I might be tunneling a bit and will try to broaden my vision and look at other people (particularly VE, and I also don't like the look of Mandalor), but between Grush and Maju, I find the association case on Grush strong enough to lynch him. I also think the argument that we should lynch him before we hit lylo quite convincing, because at least there's a chance Maju will come out to play at lylo. Grush is going to continue to spam retarded shit until we lynch him or the game ends (honestly, I can't imagine scum doing us the favour of shooting him even if he's town).
Maju on the other hand is a lurker whose posts make sense. The more he posts, the better I feel the chance of getting a solid read on him is. Points in favour of scum: he's an active lurker, the favourite hiding place of lots of scum (including Maju, looking at his previous games). Points in favour of town: he seems to be trying to scumhunt and make up his own mind about the lynches in some of his posts, rather than just sheeping mindlessly. I feel the former point is stronger than the latter (because the latter can clearly be faked by scum), so yeah, there's a good chance of him flipping scum. However, there are townies that lurk like mad too (Erandorr comes to mind).
For these reasons I feel it's better to leave Maju alive to post more (and hopefully get a conclusive read on him), and lynch Grush. If not Grush, I feel even VE would be a better lynch than Maju. His actions around the whole Katina/Hyaach event are highly suspicious and since then he has basically disappeared. If it was anybody other than VE I would've been pushing his lynch HARD. I'm of half a mind to do so anyway and encourage everybody to read his filter.
Mandalor is also looking pretty terrible: the only reason I moved him off my probable scum list was because I thought that his pushing twelve didn't make sense from a scum perspective. Then twelve flipped town, so we're back to scratch on that.
That makes 4 scumspects and a casualman. Kurumi and Vivax are moved onto my town list by merit of everybody else looking worse, not because either looks particularly good. I want OTHER PEOPLE to join the discussion and talk about today's lynch... and players in general.
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That was a rather unsatisfactory post, VE. What do you think of Maju? Any opinions on anybody else in the game, or do you plan on phoning in this lynch?
Also: mind explaining your behaviour surrounding the DT check on Katina. You still haven't commented on it:
On July 09 2012 18:33 Acrofales wrote:VE - I had an early town read on VE based on our fight with BM. However, I slowly cooled on VE when he picked a fight with Bugs (or Bugs with him). Yes, they both backed down, but the whole thing left me feeling wary. His behaviour around the DT check seems to be trying to get Katina to give him a way out of bussing him. A lot of questions for Katina. He could be trying to sort his mind out, or hoping people start agreeing with him. Also note that despite his doubt of the DT, he doesn't actually want to lynch him. Doubting the DT: + Show Spoiler [Hyaach doesn't read like a DT] +On July 07 2012 14:01 VisceraEyes wrote: Hyaach doesn't read at all like a DT with checks until recently.
Like, I don't see Hyaach defending BKE like he has a green check on him. Not even guarded...like, he mentions BKE and comes to his defense once or twice, but not convincingly like he has a town read on him even.
Ugh...and BKE as a check N1, I don't get that at all. Like, he wasn't reading suspicious of BKE at all, so checking him doesn't really make sense. Would anyone guess that he checked BKE if Hyaach had, for instance, been shot N2? Or that he checked Katina N2?
I'm just struggling with the whole thing and need more time. :/ , + Show Spoiler [but lynch casualman!] +On July 08 2012 02:34 VisceraEyes wrote: I can lynch casual instead of Katina. Just sayin. I'd also be down with lynching grush. As town, you either think the DT is lying and lynch him, or you believe the DT and lynch his red check (unless you have really good reason to believe his check was framed, but VE does not consider this). As scum, however, you want people to doubt the DT, but not lynch him! The DT would flip green and then his target would be lynched the next day. Instead you want to keep the wifom alive and lynch someone completely unrelated, such as, for instance, casualman.
As for your question: Katina was on casualman's case quite a bit before the red check. It is possible she was distancing from her scumbuddy and turned that into a bus attempt, but I am not confident in that connection. You could see it either way and speculating on what Katina was doing is not going to help us much here, I'm afraid. I feel the connection to Grush is quite a bit more solid.
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Hrmmm, there's definitely stuff I missed there. Let me ponder that case. One thing at least I got from that case, and that is that you are finally playing the game again and reading and analysing.
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On July 13 2012 07:54 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm waiting to hear what Acro thinks of the case besides "Hmmmm let me ponder"
The fact that he thinks I'm playing and analyzing is moot if he disagrees with my case and just saying that and disappearing is not contributory.
You posted your case just as I was going to bed. Here's the follow-up.
There was something bugging you about your case when I read it and it was mainly that my OWN opinion of NSH also changed during N1 (from trolly null to leaning town). The main thing that allowed me to get something of a read on him, was him breaking cover just to be able to make a meta-case on Katina. It seemed unlikely behaviour from a scum WBG to break cover just for that. Add BM flipping scum and NSH agitating to kill him and he went from null to "leaning town" in a few hours.
However, I went back into Maju's filter and looked over the timestamps of when he wanted to lynch NSH: the post stating he wanted to lynch NSH was late N1 AFTER Bugs had jumped out of the closet. The second post defending NSH was fairly early in D2. The only thing of significance that happened was BM flipping scum. Nevertheless, that is not the reason Maju gives for his flip of opinion.
Changing one's opinion is not really scummy, it's changing it for no real reason. In this case I am of two minds: there was a decent reason for changing reads on NSH, but it's not the one Maju mentioned. It could be carelessness, but Ockham's razor seems to fall on the side of scum: he already knew NSH was town and the opinion in the thread was swinging to NSH being town... so he pulled that shoddy reason out of a hat for "changing his opinion".
TLDR: now that I've pondered I agree that there's something to the case.
##unvote ##vote MajuGarzett
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I was writing up some reasons why his buddies wouldn't want to defend a scum Maju, but honestly it's all wifom.
I do still like a grush lynch too. Your case made me think the chance of Maju flipping scum was higher than Grush, but honestly I think there's a good chance of both being scum. Advantage of a grush lynch is that we get one of the more coinflippy players out of the way too.
In fact, I think this is a pretty good hypothesis. Grush and Maju are both scum. In that case, I want grush dead first.
##unvote ##vote Grush57
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I want to hear from the silent people. Kurumi, Mandalor. What do you think of Maju? And today's happenings in general?
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