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On June 06 2012 05:02 Mr. Wiggles wrote: So, you can't say that Toad and MZ are scum, unless you believe Kita is as well. In that case, you're claiming you just caught the entire scum team. Not quite as simple, but yeah.
If we don't get a third name, I'm suspicious of that group of 3. Everything rested on MZ getting shot, which may or may not have happened. Kita's medic claim rests on it. MZ's towniness rests on it. Toad's towniness rests on MZ's towniness.
If we do get a third name, then either that's the entire scumteam OR MZ and toad are confirmed. Unclaimed vig shot is possible, but I don't find it very likely.
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On June 06 2012 05:17 Toadesstern wrote: no need right now. Lynch kita and we're fine What's the downside?
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Do you think that's a real risk considering neither you nor MZ (after being mentioned as masoned) has been shot at, and considering we've got 1, if not 2, blues claiming today?
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Going to read through some things tonight, see if I can legitimately push conspiracy theory. If so, I will spend some time working through it and get it out tonight or tomorrow morning.
For those of you who thought scum team had to have a few veterans on it, does that read still stand? Based on a lot of what we're discussing, the scum team would look something like:
Gambitx32 (new) Manason (new) Zealos (Replacing in for Jitsu after PMs went out, Jitsu vet-y?) MajuGarzett (unsure on veteraniness) Papapanda (unsure on veteraniness) Other (kita, wiggles, whoever)
Again, I don't like going too far into thinking that Greymist would have set teams up with a certain number of vets, but if you do/said you did, I'd like to know your thoughts on whether the scum teams that are being proposed line up with that thought.
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Can a mason's night action be roleblocked?
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EBWOP: Phrasing bad. Can a mason be roleblocked from adding someone to the mason group?
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On June 06 2012 21:45 Toadesstern wrote: I already told you I can't be roleblocked.
Here's what you told us:On May 28 2012 08:15 Toadesstern wrote: And no I can't be RB'ed. On May 28 2012 08:32 Toadesstern wrote: Actually screw that. I was just told my action is roleblockable. Or it's not and I'm only telling you that to draw the roleblock. But it's a night action, right? :p On May 28 2012 23:05 Toadesstern wrote: For CHRISTS SAKE I can not be roleblocked. I CAN CONFIRM THIS SHIT EASY PEASY
I want to make friggin' sure we've got confirmed townies if we're going to call them confirmed. You told us two different stories about being roleblockable (and yes, the second quote DOES look like you were having fun and joking around). Either- I get a response that that question can't be answered. Now we're left with your word.
- I get a response that you ARE roleblockable. You lied.
- I get a response that you AREN'T roleblockable. We're left with your word.
On June 06 2012 21:48 marvellosity wrote: austin: the mafia roleblocker (Gambit) is dead too as well as toad saying he can't be rb'ed The above is why I'm asking. I don't think Toad is GOING to get roleblocked. But I want to make sure I've got all the information possible, and information that comes from Toad about his own role isn't reliable IF toad isn't confirmed.
And again, not a single person is confirmed. I asked if scum could hold KP for one reason. If they can, MZ isn't confirmed town. Earlier, when discussing roleblocks, someone mentioned that an easy scum play is to not roleblock and have one scum member claim roleblock, ezpz. In the same vein, easy scum play is hold one KP, have one scum claim to have been shot at.
Here, it's even better than a 1-1 claim roleblock/get town cred scenario. MZ claims to have been shot. kita claims to have protected it. Toad uses MZ as his mason buddy to confirm mason. kita is confirmed because he CAN'T be counterclaimed. Toad is confirmed because someone said he was a mason. MZ is confirmed because he took the shot. All THREE of those players are confirmed by virtue of one single shot. But the shot itself cannot be confirmed.
THAT is why I'm looking for other information. Because we're considering two options for Kita. Either he gets counterclaimed and he's scum, or he doesn't and he's town, confirmed. There's a third option. The shot didn't happen, nobody will counterclaim because nobody "saved" MZ.
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The filters are mixed, so I'm not going to go through and post a ton of stuff now. But there are lots of little bits and pieces that we've forgotten because we've become convinced that Toad and MZ are "confirmed." They aren't, because the shot isn't.
On May 28 2012 22:24 Toadesstern wrote: Just a thought on Toades claiming Mason as scum. D2, player X claims to have been masoned, noone have yet to flip so noone is confirmed. If Toades flip Scum, then X is Scum If Toades flip Mason, then we know nothing about X If X flip Scum, then we know nothing about Toades If X flip Town, THEN and only then is Toades confirmed Mason
Usually masons who are confirmed for eachother are not confirmed for town until either dies. In this case we can only confirm Toades as town without killing him is if his masonbuddy flips, AND flips as town (which isn´t a guarantee), otherwise we can´t really take anything away from Toades claim. Mason can´t be used as a tool to confirm him, not until later and not unless the right person flips the right way, so the best use of the mason power should be for secret information. Toades didn´t try to use it for that, instead he tries to pass off his claim as a confirmation that he´s town, which it isn´t. It doesn´t makes sense. I don´t know what he is, but I don´t want him as Mayor. Who gets shot N1? Forumite. I was suspicious of him, I know nobody else was. So either he got NKed for coming off very town, or he was a threat because he was the only person who fully reasoned through the different claim options. I didn't because he posted this, but I forgot to follow up on it. In no way are Toad and MZ confirmed.
On May 30 2012 04:45 Blazinghand wrote:Don't listen to toad's lies! It's the middle of N1, he isn't mod confirmed town, you can tell because he was totes serious in the quoted post. Check out this informational chart: Note which bar is larger
Anyone remember the middle of N1 when supersoft posted suspiciouns of MZ?+ Show Spoiler +On May 30 2012 03:18 supersoft wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2012 12:36 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: "Lots of people I don't know in this game, I would run for mayor but there are already a lot of candidates and I'd be happy with both ET and wiggles at the moment." Show nested quote +On May 28 2012 12:36 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 28 2012 12:10 Sinensis wrote: EBWOP: If a mislynch is going to happen, which in all likelyhood it will because that's the nature of day 1 lynches in big games, I would much rather lose grush than someone like, for example wiggles. Dat attitude... Also dat logic failure. You lynch people for acting scummy, not because they fucked you over in the last game. You threw out a huge red herring there by comparing wiggles to grush. Unless wiggles decides to claim scum, I'd bet every penny I own he won't be lynched today. Why? Because wiggles has been posting clearly, coherently, and in a protown manner. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize wiggles is a bad lynch, we're in no danger of "losing him". You're attempting to policy lynch grush (for the record policy lynches are retarded), because he's bad, not because he's scummy. Nobody wants to policy lynch wiggles, thus comparing grush to someone like wiggles is like comparing apples to oranges. If you want to bring an actual case about why grush is scum then please do, until then both you and blazinghand can drop it. there MZ makes sinensis looking worse than he actually is... was... Show nested quote +On May 28 2012 12:36 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Seriously bro, if you're not actually interested in scum hunting then you're not helping the town and would thus make a decent d1 lynch. Does MZ know he's not scum? Hang him because he doesnt hunt, not because he's scum hmmm I thoight this policylynching of bad players is so bad?! wasn't that the main point of the case against sinensis Show nested quote +On May 28 2012 12:36 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: "And please read your own posts, you did compare grush to wiggles:" not really. He distinguished between the two of them. The one is a good and the other is a bad day1 lynch. Show nested quote +On May 28 2012 17:21 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 28 2012 17:12 VisceraEyes wrote: MZ I want your opinion: obviously in an ideal situation the town comes to a consensus on a lynch and there are no problems. But is it really in town's best interest to never use the pardoner power? hmmm. Personally if I was pardoner and I felt VERY strongly that the person who was getting lynched was town I would not hesitate to pardon them simply because I still trust my judgement enough to make that call. Similarly, I wouldn't have a problem if someone pardoned someone who I thought was town. That being said, it is just a lot simpler if the pardoner is never used in. Even if a townie dies, information will be gleaned from the flip and we won't waste a cycle debating the action of the pardoner. I agree with that. 100%. Show nested quote +On May 29 2012 04:27 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Don't lynch toad today. There's no need to lynch him now. Tomorrow he'll either be confirmed, dead, or outed. Seeing as he "can't be roleblocked" he'll have no excuses. agree Show nested quote +On May 30 2012 02:54 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: lol supersoft you're not ace, stop trying to be. What, you're getting nervous because i randomly picked you? btw. what do you think about zealos. You didn't mention him there: Show nested quote +On May 30 2012 02:54 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:"Lynches I would be happy with: sinensis, and kita." On May 30 2012 03:37 supersoft wrote: dear vigs, would you please be so kind and shoot wiggles and MZ ?! I wish I had two bullets. What happens when he starts looking at MZ hard?On May 30 2012 04:03 supersoft wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2012 03:59 Toadesstern wrote:
Neither do I want MZ vigged at all because I am not sure that guy has to be mafia.
why not? By the way, Toad's reasoning wasOn May 30 2012 04:05 Toadesstern wrote: I actually have a townread on that guy and I don't like compulsive vigs, especially not if we got no information at all due to a policy lynch d1. Then at the end of N1/start of D2, we had the whole bit where Toad was going to mason MZ, but didn't because supersoft was making him a target, so he masoned BH, except that didn't go through, so he actually masoned MZ.On May 30 2012 08:10 Toadesstern wrote:nah wait it's really weird I'll explain why I said luckily I posted my logs. Here's what happened, the quote is from the last page from BEFORE deadline: Show nested quote +Toad Diary entry #3 Scumbag Supersoft. I pm'ed the host that MZ would be my mason partner and Supersoft tells people to shoot him. Now I need to change my target. I wanted to mason MZ and pm'ed both hosts to do so Supersoft told people to shoot him so I changed my target to BH as I thought both are slightly townish and won't be shot. So I figured I masoned BH and that's why I posted BH has a swollen ball. Now I got a PM that MZ is my mason So I kicked him in the balls On May 30 2012 08:24 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2012 08:22 Blazinghand wrote: oh. you changed it right at the deadline, but that was too late? I see not really, but kind of On May 30 2012 08:25 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2012 08:23 Blazinghand wrote: So you made your change then, but it didn't count? I really don't know what I am allowed to post from the pm I got Did that explanation never feel odd? He changed it but that was too late? Not really. He changed but it didn't count? Not allowed to post.
And right after that, Toad posts thisOn May 30 2012 08:27 Toadesstern wrote: Well I did not get roleblocked if that's the case and I either did not get mediced or did not get shot. Screw you guys. Which feels odd given that he was claiming he could not be roleblocked.
I'm still working through this, but I'm leaving my vote on Kita right now. What I'd really like to do is ask everyone's opinion on MZ. Drop the confirmed townie bit, because he's not. Read MZ with a clear head and tell me what you think. supersoft found his D1 play odd, agree/disagree? Lynch on VE, good/bad? Play since then?
The shot on him is what confirms Kita's claim, and his being masoned confirmed Toad. IF MZ or Kita is scum, then the other one is, absolutely. Toad is NOT confirmed either, so I'd like him to mason me tonight. If he does, he's confirmed town, no matter what MZ and Kita flip. If he doesn't, I'm going to assume he's scum.
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The pic is still entirely right, because you have been confirmed by ONE guy, who might be scum. You claim that your N2 and N3 mason targets are dead, so they can't confirm you. I did a light round of find-the-crumb to see if either of them mentioned being masoned come D3 and D4, but didn't find anything. Will look again, but I didn't catch anything.
The rest is all just odd stuff. Like, I went through one day and there were a bunch of little interactions that stuck out, and you've got to admit that the BH/MZ mason stuff was just a little odd. It's all immaterial though, I think I included it just to show some weird interactions and to drive home the point that nobody has been confirmed (except hassy in my mind). The mason claim absolutely decides this, because either you are a town mason or you're not and you're almost certainly scum (i guess 3rd party is an option?).
That's why, instead of masoning me, I actually want to suggest something else. I think, depending on who gets lynched, you should mason someone from this list tonight: hyaach, papapanda, majugarzett, manason. If you're town, they can confirm you. If you're scum, you'll either have to out the final scum (if you/MZ/kita are scum) OR you'll have to get rid of one of those players for town and say that you masoned him but he got shot. Congrats, 1/2 of scum's KP wasted and town potentially gets saved some effort.
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Also, as a fellow MS Paint lover, shoutout to BH's graph.
It shouldn't really be a topic of discussion, but I love that we're actively debating whether the stupid graph is right or not.
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On June 06 2012 23:09 Toadesstern wrote: Oh and obviously what foru said is completly wrong as well as I already pointed out because he thought I'm a one-shot mason as well. Everything changes if I can repeat the result every night. I can't be mafia with a mafia buddy claiming mason partner because that way I would out 3 mafias the moment I told you the third one. That would be retarded. Ummmmm.
- IF you're town, you're placing too much stock in being a multi-mason. You haven't been confirmed as such. You may well have masoned WBG and jaj, but neither of them said so, so all we have is your word. If you're actually a multi-mason, your next mason target will speak up, you'll be confirmed. At this point, to me, having a secret mason circle is less important than having someone absolutely positively confirmed as town.
- IF you're scum, you didn't have a choice. Yes, you'd have to out another mafia. This would rely on you feeling enough D1 pressure about being a lyncher that you fakeclaimed and got stuck with it.
But the thing is, we don't actually KNOW which situation applies. For all your mason targets, you're not actually confirmed. One guy could be scummy, 2 guys died before saying they were masoned. While the mason claim as scum WOULD be kind of odd, right now it's still in the mix.
Again, the mason claim decides your fate in a few days. Either you're a mason or you're scum, and nothing matters except you actually being able to be confirmed by another player or two.
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Gah, I've spammed too much today, so i'm backing off posting for a bit. Toad, all that matters for you is that you're going to confirm yourself one way or another. I'd urge you to RNG a mason buddy within the list above because those players feel like they have the lowest chance of getting shot.
To everyone else who catches up on this nonsense:- What are your thoughts on MZ?
- If you felt kita was scummy before the claim, but swapped because of the lack of counterclaim, are you willing to put your vote back on kita or MZ? (I add MZ because lynching him gets us scum if they're scum, and we don't kill our medic if they're town)
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That plan also requires being very sure on the lynch target, because you're also passing up the kita or MZ lynch for a lynch on another player. For now, I'm sticking with my read on kita/MZ--we've had a lot of almost-kita lynches, and a lot of dead players being very suspicious of kita. The claim barely saves him, but doesn't confirm him like he wants it to. As to MZ, I can post some suspicions if needed, but frankly I'd rather others come to their own conclusion because I look a little tunneled in right now and would rather see if others find him suspicious.
Apart from that, I ... don't think I dislike the plan? I haven't found anything awful about it. So I'd be willing to hop over if kita or MZ aren't going to happen. The potential for -1 KP is nice, but it's not guaranteed. I don't like that it may not confirm kita/MZ and potentially you, but that's the price we'd have to pay.
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Prob said he got a green check back on hassy. This is one time I'm not going to propose alternate scenarios, because I think prob's claim is legit and I don't see hassy getting framed.
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I'm here, but posted too much this morning. Will be around until shortly before the deadline, and I can see there's no traction on kita.
I'm willing to move my vote to mana, I found him scummy before and still do. I'd prefer not to move to maju.
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Swapped my vote to mana since kita isn't happening.
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On June 07 2012 07:55 Probulous wrote: Austin here is the situation.
Toad claimed mason, masoned MZ who confirmed receiving it and Toad has a green check against him. Besides that he has been open and clear about his reads. MZ claimed a hit which Kita says he stopped. Well if we can get some clarity around Kita, than that helps us with MZ. I understand your scepticism but you need to be realistic. The chances of scum taking that risk AND the night actions from others lining up perfectly is very very remote.
On June 07 2012 08:15 Toadesstern wrote: no his case is not plausible as already pointed out by 4 different players. It makes no sense at all and is either mafia driven or paranoia driven. I'm leaning on paranoia like gonzaw in LI when he said every single vet in the game had to be mafia and noone else (LOL) but that's not exactly helping right now. Look, here's the thing. Toad is a separate issue. He's either a mason or not, and his mason status isn't dependant on any of this. I mucked it up by talking about that in the same posts. So Toad isn't involved in this post, he's a separate deal.
This is purely, purely, a Kita/MZ thing.
MZ claims a shot N1. Kita claims medic, protected MZ N1. We can be absolutely sure that either both of these claims are true or neither claim is true. That's my whole deal right now. Either they're both town or both scum.
Here's the simple Occam's Razor version:
In favor of TRUE: - If false, mafia would have had to hold a KP N1
- Both MZ and Kita would have to live or die together on their claims (high risk)
- Kita's red check could have been the result of a frame
In favor of FALSE: - Everyone and their mother has found Kita scummy. So suspicious that almost nobody believed his claim right off the bat.
- Kita has a red check on him.
Neither side is entirely cut and dry. If you believe their claims, you inherently believe that Kita was framed N2 and that Kita has been playing scummy all game while being town. If you don't believe their claims, you inherently believe that they would set this up with 2 scum, they would hold a KP N1, and that MZ feels scummy/could be scum.
Kita might have been framed. Kita might not have been framed. The kicker for me is that Kita's play has felt scummy. And I'm not the only one to think that.
If you're passing off the Toad/MZ/Kita crap as conspiracy theory, fine. Don't look at that. Look at Kita. Look at MZ. Have people seriously looked over MZ's filter? Do things like+ Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 14:01 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: let's be clear. We're not lynching zealos. We're not lynching gambit. We're not lynching hyaach. We're not gonna lynch any of the other half assed "cases" people have done. We're gonna kill VE. On June 01 2012 03:19 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: No we're lynching VE today.
I already explained why VE isn't a vigi, I really don't feel like quoting myself but I guess that's necessary.
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I have yet to see some actual reasons to kill zealos other than people randomly throwing his name around. We are NOT getting sidetracked. People need to stop trying to divert this lynch. VE is dying today. On May 31 2012 15:58 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2012 15:50 Probulous wrote: Wow the crazies are lining you up VE.
First Maju and now the speaking intestine himself. Seriously Manason, can you post something of substance that doesn't relate to your "movements". After the lynch I'm going to be holding an open forum which is going to be mandatory for all lurkers. We're going to talk about the proceeding day, their current suspicions, and how we should move forward from there. Failure to post during this meeting will result in an instant FoS. As for who is lurking I'll define that closer to the lynch so I get a better idea of who is lurking vs who is gonna get modkilled. [Promised pro-town action that never occurs on the third one] not give you ANY pause?
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Kenpachi, you might have mentioned once or twice that you find Kita scummy, and it doesn't sound like you believe his claim. + Show Spoiler +On June 05 2012 11:27 Kenpachi wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2012 11:15 kitaman27 wrote: With so few people willing to listen to anything I have to say, it seems unlikely that I will be argue myself out of a lynch today. Even if I am able, it will be a waste of discussion and I'd rather have a full day to go after actual scum targets than defend myself.
I am a Medic. I saved Meapak from a hit on night one. I have been on Toad night two and three. Don't waste time discussing whether or not my claim is real. If there is another medic who claims to have saved Meapak night one, then he can counter-claim me. Otherwise, I am confirmed town and we can end this lynch Kita nonsense. I'll make a post about my suspects later tonight. so fucked Would you agree that Kita and MZ are the same alignment? If so, any chance you want to articulate your thoughts on MZ in more than a sentence or two?
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On June 08 2012 01:36 marvellosity wrote: austin/Hyaach - if we put aside kita/MZ for a moment, do you have other scumreads?
Sorry, was busy with the newbie game all afternoon.
Putting them aside and looking at others...I guess I get this result? papa, wiggles, ET, kenpachi. That's basically what it would have to come down to, given my other reads.
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Ugh. Sorry. Mindfucked from the newbie game and didn't read all the names properly while wanting to respond to the question.
ET would NOT be a scumread here. I was putting him in because I found hyaach more townie than you, but I didn't look closely enough and missed maju. Maju would be my other scumread then, and I guess I'll have to look at ET/hyaach a little further.
As far as the double medic thing, if 2 medics would be absurd, then yeah, that does go towards them having legit claims. Would it also be odd to have 2 masons then? If so, doesn't that make Toad's worry about Gambit being a mason seem odd? I don't want to push Toad with this, really, i'm done with that.
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