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Alright. So yesterday I just randomly posted a poorly-organized mess of thoughts on Forumite, because I found him scummy. Today, I wanted to throw out a (hopefully) slightly-less-poorly-organized mess of thoughts on Toadesstern! Please, everyone put on your tinfoil hats.
D1 there were suspicions that Toad might be a lyncher, based upon his mayoral campaign and his odd claim. To the extent that being a lyncher made sense, it was because it looked like Toad's claim was aimed at getting some sort of power early and being able to achieve a win condition quickly.
If we extend that train of thought, we ought to be thinking of alternate win conditions, or maybe the potential for a variant on a power - perhaps he has to do something or mason with someone in order to activate an ability? While lyncher/assassin have targets in order to achieve a win condition, it's not out of the question that some particular role could need to meet a condition (perhaps mason a specific character?) in order to activate an ability.
With that in mind, here are some ramblings!
The band-aid.
Toad made two mentions of a band-aid in his D1 posts. + Show Spoiler +On May 28 2012 05:28 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2012 05:21 MajuGarzett wrote:On May 28 2012 05:13 Toadesstern wrote: and for the first update (although I'm only on page now and I'm trippleposting): ET seems like a decent lynch right now, but nowhere clear on that one yet. What suspicions do you have about ET? mostly the fact that he's posting super manipulative while talking about stuff that is easy to say as mafia as well, which is not an alignment tell at all but it looks like contributing. He's not making a lot of sense when talking, contradicts himself a little every now an then (or than idk, german lol) while quoting nice posts to completly ignore the "contribution" out of the post and just talk about the 2 lines that are utterly useless which again looks like contribution but really isn't. But I'm only on page 15 so far and apparently typing with a band-aid on your finger is really hard to do, so I'm having typos all the time when I try to reach for the right side of my keyboard... On May 28 2012 06:48 Toadesstern wrote: EBWOP A few typos in there and wrong words. Just pronounce the words and you get the meaning :p "by" = "buy" and stuff like that lol
It's getting late and the band-aid really make typing really hard which frustrates a lot and therefore I don't doublecheck stuff because it already takes ages to post something like that.
Although we've got On May 23 2012 07:23 GreYMisT wrote: You don't need to know about Invader Zim in order to play this game, This is just for the flavor. that doesn't mean that knowledge of Invader Zim can't be used to hint at things/breadcrumb/etc. The band-aid comments struck me as odd. Is there an Invader Zim character with a band-aid? Yup. Sure is. http://zim.wikia.com/wiki/Invader_Spleen. You know, like, the one on the list of possible character names.
Did anyone else notice the band-aid comments as odd? Does this make sense? Sure, a band-aid on the head =/= band-aid on the finger, but Toad's comment would look incredibly suspicious if he kept referencing a band-aid on his head.
The Second Mason (on the grassy knoll)
Toad also keeps mentioning another Mason + Show Spoiler +On May 29 2012 02:18 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 29 2012 01:40 papapanda wrote: Regarding Toad(once again): For everyone: What is the best method now to pick the next mason? I am thinking letting Toad play out his cards by himself might be the next best option, as he seem to have some withheld information. The other choice is for the town to decide someone for him to invite, but this increases some randomness and can be potentially affect by mafia. Toad, thought? I will not listen to anyone suggesting a target becaue if I do mafia justs shoots him => I can not confirm my mason role and I am in trouble. I'm thinking of rnd-ing it. Also there's another mason in this game and he needs to shut the fuck up. On May 30 2012 23:13 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2012 23:10 strongandbig wrote: Cause unless we hear otherwise, I'm assuming we could have variant alignment as well as variant abilities. I doubt that's possible lol. I read it as "variant of the roles". As you can see the roles have a very poor description and as I already told you I am the most awesome mason of them all. I'd say if we have a 2nd mason that guy is another kind of mason.Something like that. At one point there IS another mason. Next it's IF there's another mason. Right before the first mention of the second mason, papapanda had posted + Show Spoiler +On May 29 2012 01:40 papapanda wrote: I am not sure why we are not using Toad's claim to put him in VP's spot, as if he is the mafia, we could've prove it by day 2. And like I said, during day2, the pardon is basically useless as it cannot be used to pardon himself. Plus the pardon in any other fraction's hands would not be as devastating, even the lyncher.
But by the looks of it, this is not going to happen, so... Of the leading two presidential candidates, I think MrWiggles have a stronger platform as of now; He clearly stated his lynch candidates. EchelonTee, can you state a few of your potential lynch target as well? I know you said that you will base your lynch on what the majority of town says, and that is great; but I feel like that is almost like putting off the blame in case of a mislynch. Imo it will greatly boost you town-credibility if you can pump out a few of your own reads. Anyhow I will decide who to vote based on your response.
Regarding Toad(once again): For everyone: What is the best method now to pick the next mason? I am thinking letting Toad play out his cards by himself might be the next best option, as he seem to have some withheld information. The other choice is for the town to decide someone for him to invite, but this increases some randomness and can be potentially affect by mafia. Toad, thought? Toad's shut the fuck up comment seemed out of place, and was posted shortly after papapanda's question. Potentially talking to papapanda? We're all certain Toad has been withholding information, but for most of us we seem to want to know what magical powers he has or why he isn't roleblockable. papapanda notes only that he has "withheld information," which if you want to get really tinfoil-hattish could be some kind of tell? (Note: I don't feel strongly about that, the papapanda bit is purely grasping at straws. But I want to throw it out here to see if anyone else had similar thoughts).
Da balls
After sending out his PM, Toad was seriously focused on some swollen balls.+ Show Spoiler +BH should wake with a swallen ball. that's me masoning you. I kick the guy in the balls who I want to talk with. You should have a PM
So I figured I masoned BH and that's why I posted BH has a swollen ball. Now I got a PM that MZ is my mason So I kicked him in the balls That also struck me as odd, but oh well. I couldn't find anything in particular from the show about ball-kickers or ball-kickees. At one point Dib kicks Zim's "squeedly spooch." Which appears more stomach-y than balls. I'm adding this because I found the constant references to be odd, perhaps they're flavor, but he was really, really driving home the ball-kicking.
So for anyone who read that, pull your tinfoil hat down low. - Does the band-aid mention look like a hint at a role? If so, he's part of the invader team. That leaves us with either: (1) him looking to find another particular invader, perhaps multiple win conditions within the invader team (Were there multiple invader factions in the show?) or (2) perhaps the invader team starting split up (a la a splinter cell) and attempting to find each other? (2) seems unlikely considering this is a normal game. (1) also seems unlikely considering this is a normal game.
- Does the second mason bit give anyone thoughts? Perhaps a second player that Toad has to find is also a mason, and when they mason together...they summon Captain Planet?
- Is Toad's meta particularly testicle-centric?
- Do you find this all ridiculous given that MZ has stated that Toad is, in fact, a mason?
- IF you're willing to accept that Toad may have some sort of weird variant role, do these posts concerning variant roles/third party roles feel odd at all?+ Show Spoiler +
On May 30 2012 23:13 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2012 23:10 strongandbig wrote: Cause unless we hear otherwise, I'm assuming we could have variant alignment as well as variant abilities. I doubt that's possible lol. I read it as "variant of the roles". As you can see the roles have a very poor description and as I already told you I am the most awesome mason of them all. I'd say if we have a 2nd mason that guy is another kind of mason. Something like that. On May 31 2012 00:04 Toadesstern wrote: not to mention that I totally agree with Kenpachi. I think vets are more likely to get the 3rd party roles and frankly foru proves me right.
Those roles are pretty hard to play because you're on your own and they're special as in not how you should normally play. I doubt Greymist would give the SK, lyncher or assassin to a guy within his first 5 games or something like that. That would be a deathsentence.
Sooooo I'd say the chance to hit mafia / 3rd party within vets is increased and we have good targets in there.
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No way man. We're in tinfoil-hat-mode here. You could be adding the bandaid now! You could have a tattoo on your finger that LOOKS like a bandaid! It might not even be YOUR finger! Even worse, we probably won't know if you've used a Band-Aid® brand adhesive bandage, or some OTHER brand adhesive bandage.
The plot thickens.
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On May 31 2012 00:31 Blazinghand wrote: Which is to say tha WE could find said crumbs if we look I only did a little poking around so far and the papapanda post jumped out a little. I'll look back at the early game and the bits preceeding the mason mention more. Also, to the extent that "Toad must find second mason" makes sense, there's the chance that he didn't find the other guy and he was trying to draw out the other mason (and may have found him later D1/during N1, leading to the second mention that IF there was a second mason, partially covering up his tracks?).
Seriously though, if all of that looks ridiculous, let me know. But we seem to have a lot of questions about Toad's actual role and why he claimed when/how he did, so maybe it's worth some discussion and some further analysis.
As to G32, phagga, cwave, I think we're going to be wasting our time posting about them. We can just echo chamber that back and forth but nobody is going to stand up for them and go, "No way, they're not lurking!" Unless we've got legitimate reasons to prefer one candidate between phagga, cwave, and G32 (I separate Zealos because he posted slightly, slightly more), then those three are all the same guy. That's why I was pushing last night for reasons why we were voting G32 over the others, to me there's no reason to prefer one over the other. Unless we've got something specific about one or the other, why waste our time discussing them? Voting, lynching, sure. But is there anything to really discuss?
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On May 31 2012 02:58 VisceraEyes wrote: Because it confused me and I wanted others' opinions. It seemed silly to me that if you're a mason as you claim that scum would leave you alive to be confirmed the next day. Tactically it was an oddity to me so I wanted.to know what [austinmcc] thought. I think it's silly and odd as well. I don't buy that he's just a green mason, but I also don't like the early explanation that was thrown out that he could be a lyncher. Not gonna find the quote, but Greymist said that lyncher/assassin wouldn't be "shooting blind." Forumite's flip shows what Grey might have meant, where the third party is given a role name, as well as a mechanic to help them figure out what player has that role. If we think that applies to the lyncher, if we have one, the idea that a lyncher would push hard for mayor to get a D1 lynch and win looks weaker, as he wouldn't yet know what player had his target role.
Do you stop your thought process at silly and oddity? Do you find Toad scummy because of it? Do any of my thoughts concerning third parties or variations on roles make sense given Toad's claim?
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Can add another paragraph to my tinfoil hat musings about Toad and Gambit.
Toad's got a town read on him, wants the name of his role. Again, potentially hunting the name of a role for a third party win condition, or because he thinks Gambit is the other mason?
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On May 31 2012 03:13 Toadesstern wrote: I'm a mason, that rules out third party for christs sake. What are you blabbering about As far as I can tell, here's ALL we have on roles/alignments for sure.
On May 10 2012 01:40 GreYMisT wrote: The following list represents all possible roles in the game. Not all of these roles will be in the game, but all roles in the game will either be on this list, or be variations of roles on this list.
On May 24 2012 08:20 GreYMisT wrote: A list of all possible roles has been added to the OP. These roles and their variations are the only ones that will be in the game, but not all may appear.
Your claim was so odd that it's a major reason you didn't get the mayoral vote. You didn't get shot overnight, maybe because of the threat of protection on you. Your play still feels odd today, you're very clearly holding some information back in a way that feels like you're playing for a shorter term objective than eliminating scum.
We have never received a guarantee that masons are all town, the end (yes? Someone correct me quick if I'm horribly wrong). What we HAVE been told is that "variations" are possible, and a scum or third-party mason certainly sounds to me like a variation on mason.
My vote's going on you for now, mainly because of how I don't get the sense that your win condition aligns with town's.
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Sorry, was gone for a bit.
Alright, hat off. Now that we've actually got mod-confirmation that the roles and alignments match up, I'm un-voting Toad (duh). As far as I see it, that's no longer an issue at all and the bits that Toad was secretive about can be confirmed by Gambit.
Assuming Gambit comes back and says he's a mason, I'm willing to accept his claim as well. The alternative is to think that he just happened to put "Mason Recruiter" without being one, and that's too farfetched. We could wait for confirmation from someone masoned with him, but the name of the role is good enough for me.
I don't think that MZ and Toad both being scum is more likely at this point. Willing to revisit this later if it's absolutely necessary, but that's too far out there.
And yes, Toad, I do realize you were forced to out another blue. But you'd already stated that you got a town read from Gambit, and his saying "Mason Recruiter" stood out if anyone read carefully. So, sorry if you think he wouldn't have been outed, but he became enough of a topic of discussion that I thought it would have come out anyway if that were the case.
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I had not been lumping Hyaach in with the other lurkers who have become lynch candidates only because I remembered him lurking in Newbie XIII, and that we had some issues with the time zone making it so he wasn't active when things were happening.
Personally I read those contradictions and illogical bits as a result of him being absolutely disinterested in the game. See posts like: + Show Spoiler +On May 28 2012 14:26 Hyaach wrote: How many hours till this day ends? placer-vote until i read everything in around 8 hours On May 28 2012 22:58 Hyaach wrote: Huge headache to read 15 pages of text with lots of emotions and random things inserted here and there.
. . .
If I could wake up in 8 hours time to reread and revote, I would do it. But for now my vote is
. . .
But it is still i think 8 hours till day ends? Plenty of time to decide. On May 31 2012 01:18 Hyaach wrote: . . . Gambit. I never read his filter yet. . . . Kita i didnt read. I'll admit though, he's actually made an effort to post each cycle as opposed to the rest of the crew, which DOES look scummy to me when compared to people who have had to be warned.
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On May 31 2012 09:59 Probulous wrote: The only effort he had made has been to find an excuse not to support Wiggles. Why?
I'm actually willing to take him at his word on his reasoning.
On May 28 2012 22:58 Hyaach wrote: and before you say im contradicting myself which I am. I do not just want to wagon a vote, I have as much town read on Mr Wiggles as I have on Meapak_Ziphh You may say but if you are town you would want to elect a strong candidate into Mayor. But I feel safer voting on town read by myself on someone who doesn't run for Mayor. I believe most who ran campaigns has an agenda.
Having not participated in an election previously, I can accept the train of thought he provided: Wiggles seems town, but Wiggles is running for mayor, therefore, better to vote for some other town read that wasn't pushing himself for mayor. I had the same thought to an extent, but figured if a mass vote-swap right before the election was normally a good idea (because some/many of the candidates could be non-town), it would gain traction on its own.
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I think he's town because, as jaj phrased it, I think he's acting like "paranoid loner newb townie" rather than scum.
I get the frustration at trying to discern exactly why x lurker is being suggested over y lurker, I was in that boat last night when G32 votes started popping up. As of yet, I'm still of the mind that nothing much supports lynching one lurker over another. The read I have on Hyaach is faintly town, the read I have on Zealos right now faintly scummy. I have no read on cwave or phagga. Read on G32 is entirely dependent on this mason recruiter nonsense.
If none of them posted anything for the rest of D2, I'd end up voting Zealos, only because Zealos and Hyaach are the two that have actually posted and are least likely to see themselves out, and I lean a little scummier on Zealos. If he's active the second half of D2 like he said he'd be, that can easily change, because I'm not leaning very far towards town/scum on those two.
Your logic only makes sense if you are around to join in on said mass vote switch. He never changed his vote.
Right. I'm not arguing it's actually logical, more that it's...newbie logical? Maybe I'm putting too much stock in the value of experience, but his argument occurred to me as well and I barely rejected it. Not changing his vote, on the other hand, is a little more difficult to explain. He was active at that point, so I don't really want to chalk up not moving the vote to disinterest.
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His motivation is clear to you because you're not fully considering poorly-thought-out play. If you're happy to vote a different candidate because everyone running might have had an agenda, then that reasoning still stands even once you need to consolidate. You're suspicious of Wiggles AND every other candidate for the same reason, so why consolidate your vote on ANY of them?
If you accept that as possible reasoning, then his motivation isn't clear any more, because he could have been acting according to his suspicion of all candidates. That's the only reasoning I've got for him not swapping his vote at the end.
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^ in response to v
On May 31 2012 11:17 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2012 11:13 jaj22 wrote:On May 31 2012 10:39 Probulous wrote: So you think he is town because he acting like scum?
I'm saying that scum normally make some effort not to have an entire filter full of weird stuff. The town explanation for his posts seems more plausible to me. On Zealos, I agree it's possible that he's just busy. His claim is that he has a lot more free time now, so we'll see if he manages to post something that looks town before the lynch. In that case I'd probably switch to Gambit rather than Hyaach though. Cwave and phagga are lined up for modkills due to not voting on day 1, so there's not much point lynching them. What's this evidence of Hyaach's motivations? Why would you make an effort to state that Wiggles is the best candidate and then vote for someone else? The reason given was that Wiggles has an agenda and he would prefer voting for someone not running for mayor, which is a newb way is alright, if and only if you consolidate on a candidate. Otherwise you can vote for anyone and not be held accountable. His motivation is clear, avoid voting for Wiggles and then disappear into the night. This is scum play if Wiggles is town, which is my read.
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With the VE and Kita cases read, gonna have to vote for VE here.
VE, I know that before you had trouble putting together a Kita case previously, and the one you put forth, at least for me, feels like you rushed it out in response to the case on you. Seems to be based on Kita's meta and his focus on the lyncher during D1 discussion, and just doesn't provide as solid a case as MZ's on you. When you tried to put together a case on Kita before, were there any other points that didn't make it into this case? Anything recent, past the lyncher discussion?
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Also, did anyone else claim to be roleblocked apart from VE and WBG?+ Show Spoiler +On May 30 2012 08:05 VisceraEyes wrote: Nah Forumite was likely double-stacked if I had to guess, so we're looking at ONE missing KP. And if I had to guess, I'd say it was at me because I was roleblocked overnight. Current scum-meta is roleblock/kill to hide the roleblock. I bet I took a hit and some loverly medic thinks I'm the stuff. ^^ On May 30 2012 09:41 wherebugsgo wrote: I was roleblocked and took a hit last night.
Going to assume that means a jailor protected me from a scum hit.
I'm also going to assume it means that lurker I called out is probably scum.
As far as VE's vig claim goes, I'm not terribly inclined to believe it given his posts concerning zealos today and the breadcrumb. But it feels like between the possibility of jailers and roleblockers, a single roleblock claim (assuming we think VE is lying about the roleblock) is a little light? Maybe someone roleblocked a lurker thinking blue, and they haven't checked in to notice they were blocked or claimed, but that's my only real misgiving about a VE lynch at this point.
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I agree with Mattchew that we're in a good spot after N1. Toad, you're being overly pessimistic when you say we lost a complete cycle D1, because mafia lost a complete cycle too. Having an effective D1 on D2 is a fantastic position, we're effectively up 3 or more townies on where we could be. We make up the information deficit over time, and moving forward a day without town losses really helps out there.
However, I'd still much rather play the "lazy" route with the lurkers. The argument that waiting a day on pushing a VE lynch gives us more information applies equally to the lurkers. We've got players that didn't vote D1, haven't voted D2, won't have posted for 2 cycles. If they get modkilled, we also get information from that. To a large extent, that negates the value of waiting for information in my mind, because it cuts both ways (unless we're discussing targetting only the layer of lurkers that are posting just enough to avoid modkills, which becomes more reasonable).
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The idea of letting VE live, get a shot off while watching him DOES has some appeal for me. To seriously consider it, though, I want to lock down who the vig shot would be on, and make sure I understand how things would play out.
Your case on kita doesn't really convince me. Earlier you mentioned that you'd shoot wiggles tonight,would you be shooting wiggles over kita? Supersoft, you seem so convinced that VE could be directed to some definite scum, what's your target? In the case this idea prevails and we give VE the night, do we direct the shot as a group?
Furthermore, the idea is that we watch VE in order to deter a claim that he was roleblocked.- IF the target doesn't die, then we're reliant on the watcher claiming to tell us whether we had (1) VE was visited and might be roleblocked vigi or (2) nobody visited VE. Right? Now we've got a watcher outed, and we didn't get the extra shot off tonight, which is the whole purpose of this plan. There's also some chance that the watcher takes a bullet overnight and then we could end up with nothing.
- IF the target dies, then what? We directed that kill, it's not like VE's alignment matters because not shooting the target guarantees a lynch on him pretty much. Maybe he's vigi, maybe he carries out a scum NK on that person, hell, maybe he's SK.
- Third scenario, VE knows that he's never going to be 100% safe after today, and goes off the reservation, shooting whoever he'd like.
Is that actually the list of options? Maybe I'm missing some possibility, but I don't see any scenario in which the leave-VE-alive plan gets us anything more than the possibility of a town-directed NK, and the plan won't play out quite as simple as just "shoot 'n' watch."
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On June 01 2012 04:41 VisceraEyes wrote: And here's something to factor in. Scum don't know if I'm scum or SK any more than town does...so chances are, I'm going to eat a bullet. Know why? Cause I'm beast-mode SK. Ask fucking anyone. No need. I read the game. I lurked for a while here before playing. You pretty much DO have to shoot the target that's given, but I'm still not liking what we actually learn from that, and to the extent that we need a watcher to claim, what we have to give up to learn anything.
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On June 01 2012 05:18 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 05:17 VisceraEyes wrote: THAT, guys, is the icing on the cake. Not me thinking MZ is scum, but all the lurkers coming in and flocking to VE.
Do you guys want to lynch who the LURKERS want to lynch? Really? They're not reading the game...they're not even playing in the real sense. Vote with me, I'm reading. I'm trying. Kill Kitaman or Zealos or Wiggles or take your fucking pick...don't lynch claimed Town Vigilante. It just keeps pilling on... Some of the pushback against voting VE is that you're tunneling him hard. This doesn't help that. Yes, he suggested those three. They've all come up today as options for the lynch or a vigi shot. Not scummy to name them.
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On June 01 2012 06:02 VisceraEyes wrote: Nonono, I think we can lynch Kita today, flip red, I shoot, I'm not roleblocked for fear of being watched, and I shoot another scum tonight. I come in D3 having EARNED confirmed status, and you get to explain why you wanted to kill me tomorrow while we lynch MZ.
That's what I think can happen if we work together. I think you'll have do a fine job of convincing me and town that killing me was a good idea after I'm confirmed, especially if you work with me now. We gotta get there bro, and I think that's the situation we'll be in D3, not people calling for my head. Work with me Toad. No matter who gets hit overnight, you won't ever have earned confirmed status. You can be scum carrying out the NK. Could be an SK. Even if your shot is directed at someone who flips red, it's not some awe-inspiring bus that gets you towncred. You've said it yourself that you really don't have any other option but to shoot our choice of player, so there's no towncred to be gained from hitting scum.
On June 01 2012 06:13 marvellosity wrote: There's really too much "oh, might as well". Does everyone voting VE genuinely believe he's scum? Obviously this isn't aimed at kita/MZ/Toad, but the rest of you. Is he the best chance of flipping scum for today or are you being led by vocal people?
Marv, when I look at our list of options, nobody jumps out as "scummier than VE" for me. Zealos doesn't look good, G32 doesn't look good but I won't vote for him until we see something about his Mason Recruiter mention. To the extent that other players are options, I don't feel that the cases on them are as strong as that on VE - the kita case is based heavily on meta/lyncher focus D1, and other options like wiggles/strongandbig/anyothernamethat'sbeenthrownout aren't very strong either.
I'm not 100% on him, but the alternative right now is just too messy. My sentiment isn't so much "oh, might as well," as it is "dear God, if we don't lynch VE then we roll this mess through the night and into D3, and there's no shiny red alternative lynch option." Lynching for expediency is certainly inferior to lynching for scumminess, but there's a combination here and the fact that any non-VE lynch really just puts this same issue back on the table tomorrow.
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On June 01 2012 06:38 marvellosity wrote: Alright, you tell me - what are the things that make YOU think VE is scum?
Very well. The number one thing - Even though he says he shot at Zealos N1, he's been all over the place D2. Town VE might swap votes and change his mind, but he was confident enough to fire at Zealos and then hasn't stuck with him hard all day today. Of course we've got new posts/information, but I don't like the movement. When your claim starts with you shooting at one of the current lynch options, then moves to a case on kita, then making the smart play and offering to fire and die tomorrow, it doesn't look good. Not a meta-reason, not "oh it's a bad breadcrumb."
Maybe it's a mislynch. Again, we've spawned something here that we've got to deal with or it's going to mess with N2 and D3. Removing that distraction, when VE seems scummy, is worth the mislynch to me.
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