Pick Your Power: Redux - Page 5
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
I agree with marvellosity in that I think the Politician role is in Serial Killer hands, so risk.nuke claiming to have the Vigilante role (which I think is the 3rd most dangerous role and would have been my choice for denial purposes if I had been higher in the queue) would be extremely dangerous and likely counterclaimed. I think we still need to resolve exactly how the night kills worked themselves out, but I think we need to hear from the hosts before we can do to much on that front. If you tried to take Politician and are a townie, please claim it now (this does not apply to marvellosity's mason townie). I also believe that the Copy Cat isn't in the game (but this is subject to change, of course, if we see high number of kills during a later night). This means that Mattchew is off the hook for now. I'm sorry it took me so long to say that, but I tend to be a little more paranoid than most in these kinds of games (look at my ranting about things that might be used to kill in PYP1 if you don't believe me). Contrary to what Palmar said earlier, I don't believe anyone here is an idiot for treating him as probably innocent. (Sorry to sidetrack, but the comment has been bothering me ever since Palmar made it the other day.) I believe we are most likely looking for a Serial Killer with the Politician role and a Mafia member who could have one of many different roles, though Framer, Godfather, Angry Vigilante, and Vanilla seem like the most likely selections. There may also be a Traitor out there, but he is a lower priority because he does not control any kill power. It is also important to note that PaqMan was vanilla, so he went for a role and didn't get it. Day Vigilante and Vigilante seem like the most likely roles he could have tried for, at least out of the ones we know about so far. Just another reason to avoid worrying about Mattchew or risk.nuke right now. Because it is now night time, I do not believe that role claims are the best idea at the moment. However, we definitely need to reconsider this once the day starts. At the very least, marvellosity's townie probably needs to claim at that point so we can get a better idea of where we're looking for the Serial Killer. And if Bullet Bill finds someone with a gun, Parity Cop finds someone with the opposite parity from himself, or Role Cop finds someone with a suspicious role, they need to claim. As things stand now, my best guess for the remaining mafia member is Zephirdd. My best guess for the Serial Killer is Misder, SlOosh, or Barundar. I'm not anywhere near as confident about those reads as I was about PaqMan (none of these were deduced through behavior, only role choices and draft list ordering), but I should be able to narrow things down by tomorrow. Finally, because it looks like risk.nuke's shot on PaqMan went through, it looks like we have a hit missing. If you took a hit, claim it, please. Otherwise, we're going to have to assume the mafia shot the Serial Killer. Side note: I wrote most of this while it was still day, so if anything looks a little jumbled, that's probably why. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 21 2012 03:40 cherubael wrote: This is GMarshal's brother, posting because he asked me to: just letting you guys know, my brother had an eye problem on Friday and is still in the hospital. He should be ok, but he probably won't be out till Tuesday. He said that the other host should keep the game going as normal. Thank you so much for the update. I was really starting to worry about him. Tell him thanks for worrying about us and now he should just focus on getting better. | ||
Qatol
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Qatol
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On May 21 2012 09:36 Bluelightz wrote: Here I propose something NON-CPR Doctors should protect Qatol I think they really should, Qatol right now has no reliable protection(by that meaning that he can be killed ezpz as he is not a vet but he is a jail keeper that can't protect himself I think) I disagree somewhat. I think they should be looking for the person they think is most likely to take a hit. If they think that person is me, then yes they should protect me. However, I don't think it is right to simply tell them to protect me no matter what, though I appreciate the thought. It isn't right to dictate their actions for them. There is a reason I emphasized that the person taking doctor should be comfortable with the idea of having that role. The role is a challenge to play, but is obviously incredibly strong if played well. Also, I'd like to point out that we still don't know what happened to the other hit last night. We really need someone to claim it. | ||
Qatol
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Qatol
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On May 21 2012 11:04 Misder wrote: I'm fine with a roleclaim tomorrow, although I am wondering- are we hoping that scum trips up when we roleclaim or to organize town. Qatol, was the main reason you jailed risk to protect him or to roleblock him. Does risk get his bullet back if Qatol jails him again? I would say most likely, talismania saved someone last night, but there is also have the possibility that mafia tried to hit SK. Both, actually, which was why it was a rather easy decision to protect him last night. I had no idea whom he was going to shoot and his behavior regarding our earlier plans made me loath to simply trust him to shoot PaqMan. On the other hand, I also realized that he has an extremely powerful role which I would like to keep in the game, so I didn't want to see him shot. I'm obviously not going to say whether or not I plan to jail risk.nuke again. However, I'll say this: I don't think a shot right now is a good idea - we don't have any real leads at the moment, only a list of "maybes." I think it's better to let the mafia/SK shoot into the maybes for us or potentially allow a Bullet Bill/Parity Cop/Role Cop to hide within that group and put together pieces. If talismania saved a townie, why hasn't that townie claimed yet? The only other options are that talismania saved a mafia and that mafia is afraid to claim (seems unlikely), or talismania didn't save anyone and either the mafia and SK both shot talismania or the mafia shot the SK. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
If the 4th member is a Janitor, how do they get around marvellosity's 50/50 chance of picking the role? I know he didn't actually do it, but scum wouldn't know that at the time unless marvellosity is scum (which I doubt). Do you think they just chanced it? I think the mafia could have gone a lot of different ways with that 4th pick and it's too hard to predict at this time what that would be. All we can do right now is rule out roles they were unlikely to pick which we know are in the game. I agree that it is very much possible (and probably quite likely) that the final scum member voted for risk.nuke as opposed to Sentinel. Losing the JOAT before he got his shot off was a huge blow to the mafia, and I think they did everything they could to keep that from happening. Where does marvellosity's townie's claim that the politician role was taken in front of him (and the fact that nobody stepped up and claimed getting it, which is why we think it's in SK hands - mafia would have saved Sentinel with it) fit in? If Sandroba is the SK, this is literally impossible because Sandroba had the last pick. And your analysis earlier points to the final mafia member likely being a risk.nuke voter, which Sandroba was not. I don't see any reason to put sandroba high on a suspicion list right now. Palmar is obviously a different story and more of a possibility, though I don't think he's particularly likely as a SK candidate either. He's too low on the list. However, we will know more after marvellosity's townie claims (which I hope he will once day 3 begins). | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 22 2012 02:33 chaoser wrote: Are people informed if they are saved (by witch or doctor)? People are informed if they were shot and protected by witch or doctor. I wasn't sure if they were informed or not but I asked an outside player and they told me they were so I recently just informed the person they were shot. Please get all actions into me, Night ends in 7 hours and 15 minutes. What about if they are saved by being Jailed? Is the player doing the saving informed of the save? | ||
Qatol
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On May 22 2012 03:52 risk.nuke wrote: Most of you got bloody butthurt because of that and nearly mislynched me despite I was the without a question the least likely to be the scum. If you had just been able to produce the slightest amount of common sense you had seen how Sentinel was clearly the most suspicious which I think snarf was the one to quickly point out. Please don't talk like this. It isn't an appropriate way to talk to people. Just because GMarshal isn't around doesn't mean this game doesn't have higher posting standards than most of the games on this site. On May 22 2012 03:57 Toadesstern wrote: We asked about 4 times in the first 48 hours that EVERYONE who does not agree with the plan to say it before alignment pm's are out. Noone disagreed but sandroba => everyone but sandroba agreed to it. You just completly bombarded it although we planned to go with it. If you would have just told us that you disagree with it there would have been no problem at all, but you didn't. That's the point. But you playing anti-town although you are town isn't even the point. The point is that a massclaim won't help us because we won't be able to figure out who picked what role with what reason. Mafia won't lie about their roles and simply say they tried to deny a town role. SK wil just claim something that's safe at this point (thanks to the marv / risk / sent thin it's already bloody easily to do that) and there's just no way to figure out that as well. Just lynch into scumreads instead of talking about massclaims when the chance to catch a scum like that is like 0,1%... Actually, I disagree that a massclaim has no merit. However, I don't want to say too much because I'm worried it will affect the night shots. So I'll just say that a massclaim tonight is not a good idea and look for my post in a few hours, which should explain more. Something coming on the "who to shoot at" topic sooner. | ||
Qatol
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Qatol
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On May 22 2012 06:39 hiro protagonist wrote: Whoops, haha, did not see that Vig has two shots in this game. I guess risk can still shoot. I thought you were claiming bullet bill for a moment there, and it was completely blowing my mind and making no sense at all. By the way, I still think you are the best person to kill next at the moment. On May 22 2012 03:27 Mattchew wrote: you have another shot right? barundar seems like a good target Why? Explain your logic please. Barundar voted for Sentinel. Do you think the final mafia member was in the Sentinel voting list? I'm guessing if you're advocating a shot on Barundar, you think he isn't. I personally disagree. Barundar makes a lot more sense to me as a potential SK candidate, but Vigilante hits don't work on Serial Killers. Don't make these sort of accusations without backing them up with some substance. It doesn't help anything. I think the vigilante hit has to be chosen carefully. First of all, I still think the mafia did not vote against their scumbuddy. It's too dangerous in such a close lynch. So I think the best vigilante hit has to come from the risk.nuke voters. Here is the current list: Mattchew zelblade Toadesstern Zephirdd hiro protagonist Palmar However, we can narrow things down further. Mattchew can be eliminated because of his shot on deconduo. No way would a mafia do that without copycat as a backup. zelblade can similarly be eliminated because of his JOAT claim. The mafia have no reason to bring attention to their actual role selection in that situation. I think we can also eliminate Toadesstern. Looking back at his posts concerning his own role selection, I see him being extremely concerned about the mason role. In fact, he even asked Sandroba about whether or not Sandroba had gotten the mason role slightly before Sentinel claimed vanilla. I think this behavior reinforces my read that he actually did take mason. I was mistaken when I said that it changed anything in the day 1 lynch - I did not realize that sandroba had already claimed vanilla at the time. Regardless, I do not think he is the best target at the moment. As mentioned earlier, the most pro-town thing about Zephirdd is his reaction to the deconduo flip. It could have been staged, but I don't think it was. It seemed very genuine to me. Also, he has just claimed taking a hit night 1. This makes him more likely to be Serial Killer in my mind and less likely to be mafia. This leaves only hiro protagonist and Palmar. hiro protagonist was quite active during the number selection and role selection discussions. However, his activity levels have dropped off sharply since then. He supported a lynch on risk.nuke, but what is more interesting about that is that he didn't consider lynching Sentinel even for a second. On May 19 2012 02:52 hiro protagonist wrote: That is post is the closest he gets for explaining how he is thinking. He later votes to "force risk.nuke to roleclaim". risk.nuke does in fact roleclaim shortly thereafter, but hiro protagonist never comes back to revisit his vote or his logic for keeping his vote on risk.nuke. Instead, his next post is approving of Palmar's threat to pardon Sentinel. He later posted that he didn't think scum would do what Sentinel did and that was why he voted for risk.nuke. However, his posts scream that he's trying to hide on the sidelines but still quietly support Sentinel, just like I would expect from a mafioso.@talis: its not an uncommon strategy for scum to argue or scold each other in the thread, publicly distancing themselves form each other. Makes it harder for town to connect the dots when scum flip. So your points about risk/decondo are a null tell in my opinion. Doesn't help that risk has been very unhelpful all game up to this point, and adding those to things up, I give a reasonable chance that risk is scum. I dont want to lynch Sentinel today. @risk/marv : Its relatively certain that one of the two of you (along with Sentinel) is scum (Or 3 incredibly stupid townies, but I dont want to entertain that notion). Why you dont want to claim your roles at this point is stupid. Your role is not as important as you think. In fact, claiming your roles at this point would most likely net us a scum. so right now you essentially have a role that says "you can claim your role, and get a dt check that only checks for scum" not to mention that after lynching scum from your claims, you would be mostly confirmed town. add it all up, its dumb not to claim... Im gonna catch up on the thread, brb Palmar has not been anywhere near as useful as I had expected of him. He came into the game and spammed and cursed a bit before getting warned. He mocked zelblade's initial post in a way which makes me think Palmar was trying to point out that it was incredibly noncomittal and extremely wishy-washy. I actually agreed completely, but zelblade has since proven himself so we're not going to worry about that. The main reason why I don't think Palmar is the best shot tonight is because, as Palmar himself has mentioned, him taking the Pardoner role and then claiming it and not using it on Sentinel was very pro-town. I think if he were scum pardoner, he wouldn't have claimed the role. At the time he claimed, I had already accused PaqMan. The mafia clearly tried to use the Sentinel claim as a way to distract the town away from PaqMan and into lynching our top draft picks. Why not hold the pardon in your back pocket as insurance, especially when you stand a chance at losing a KP role before he has used it? It doesn't make sense. And if he hadn't actually taken the Pardoner role, claiming it is extremely risky - even assuming that sandroba would be taking mason (as he had announced), Palmar is still risking that Snarfs or myself had taken the role as well. No, I think it is more likely that Palmar actually has the Pardoner role, and I think that makes him a worse shot than hiro protagonist. TL;DR: I think we should be shooting hiro protagonist tonight. He makes the most sense as the final mafia member. Hiro, if you're town you should probably give us as much information as you have. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 22 2012 07:01 marvellosity wrote: I think it makes him less likely to be mafia. I'm going to assume that the protection came from talismania for right now, but I think we should confirm that talismania couldn't save himself. If this is actually the case, then talismania would only be allowed to save either Zephirdd or PaqMan, and that choice isn't too hard. If talismania could have saved himself, then Zephirdd is far more likely to be the Serial Killer. The other options are either that Zephirdd has a defensive role (a weird choice for a mafia), or Zephirdd was protected by a doctor (which someone else could claim to confirm). I think this situation is better left for day 3.Qatol - or anyone - what do you think of Zephirdd being shot at/protted? I don't understand why anyone would have been shooting at him, or why anyone would be saving him (especially the saving part). Can the witch save herself? On May 22 2012 07:03 hiro protagonist wrote: Hasn't anyone realized that zelblade claiming JOAT is very safe if he is scum because, surprise, his scum buddy has it and he knows that? He could have anything... I would love to say that BB should check zelblade, but he could be framer for all we know. so i think lynching/shooting him would be the best move atm. It's interesting that you mention this. I went back and checked the timing of everything and it turns out my memory is a little off on what exactly happened. zelblade made his actual claim after the hammer vote had been placed but before voting had closed. However, he was also the one to push for specific roleclaims because he had hinted very early on that he could confirm one of the roles taken, which led to us figuring out what happened before chaoser flipped Sentinel. I guess it's more possible than I thought for zelblade to be mafia. His other posts haven't been very constructive in general. That being said, he's definitely a weaker candidate for shooting tonight than you are right now. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
First, you mentioned that your activity levels tend to fluctuate. Why did you come out of the woodwork so quickly after I called you out? Why hadn't you been contributing during the time period around when I called you out? You were clearly around. Second, the two quotes you posted were written almost three days apart, with one (zelblade's) being before the Sentinel lynch and one (yours) being written after. Why is it relevant to compare them? Third, I would still like you to tell us your role selection, and whether you got vanilla. If you grabbed an investigative role, please also include who you checked and the results. I recommend having all of this written out in a post which you can post in a little under 15 minutes, right after night actions can no longer be sent in, but before we get the next day post. Finally, I commend you for your reaction to my accusation. Not only did you try to address my points, but you also brought up someone you think should be given more attention and explained why you believe they are more suspicious than you are. I don't know if this weighs on whether you are town or mafia (I will have to think about it more), but I love to see such constructive play as a general matter. Excellent post. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
That being said, any massclaim we do would have to be done a certain way, would have to be done once the day started, and I don't think risk.nuke's idea of claiming from the bottom up is the right way to do it. In my opinion, a better way would be to: 1. Have anyone who picked a role but got vanilla claim. 2. After that is done and everyone who hasn't claimed verifies that they got a role, then everyone who picks a role and got it claims. The reason the order is important is because it should minimize the number of false duplicate claims. Instead, players are forced to claim they took roles they hope are not in the game. Alternatively, they can try to claim early and claim a role we know for sure already exists. The point is that the heaviest scrutiny should be placed upon people who have claimed roles which someone else has already claimed. If only one player claims to have gotten vanilla for a certain pick and one other player claims to have gotten that pick, then they do not need to be scrutinized as heavily. The big perk claiming roles in this fashion has over claiming roles from the bottom up is that players don't have the flexibility to claim roles which people below them in the queue have already claimed. Also, we don't need to worry about everyone claiming in order this way, so it eases things from a logistics standpoint. To be clear, this information would not be used to look for these players in isolation. The rest of the information we have collected throughout this game remains relevant, as does behavioral analysis. However, this simply gives us one more piece of information to help further narrow down our search. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
What this all means is that someone else needs to step up and direct the discussion. I know several of you could be contributing a lot more than you have been. Heck, just by looking at the other games, I know slOosh and Mattchew are around but simply aren't posting here. So everyone please try to give more meaningful, thoughtful contributions to the game. By the way, I protected marvellosity last night. He didn't take a hit. I'm thinking it's quite likely that either the mafia or the SK didn't send in a hit last night, which is why chaoser offered to extend the cycle and gave so many warnings that actions were due soon. However, if you took a hit, please claim it. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [Snarfs] + On May 22 2012 14:20 Snarfs wrote: Qatol, with regards to your case on hiro, I actually came to many of the same conclusions separately from that post and it was good to see many of my own ideas in your head as well. Especially with regards to not providing a single reason for lynching Sentinel, while at the same time not really arguing against Sentinel's lynch. Not once, until after Sentinel had died, did he say that he thought no scum would do what he did. However, I think the problem I had with putting him at the top of my scum list though was this line here: We had just lynched Sentinel and the conversation had moved away from PaqMan; then, he throws his name out again without anyone else, and also puts the idea in vigs heads to shoot him. Seemed kinda risky mafia play to me. What are your thoughts on that? Now, to turn the page a little. I'm wondering if all you vets out there (Qatol, sandroba, Palmar, anyone else wanting to take a stab) wouldn't mind helping me out with a look at slOosh. I'll admit, he isn't really a mafia candidate in my books, but he deserves a look as a possible SK for sure. I'm getting a much more wishy-washy feeling from slOosh than I had in a previous game I played with him. None of his posts seem committal and he constantly seems to be deferring decisions in the game to other players: I.E.: Also, his "longer" posts have been more concerned with mechanics than scumhunting: [example] Compare this with the slOosh from C9++ mini mafia: Link to Filter He is quite a bit more assertive and more proactive in finding mafia in this town game: [click][click] @slOosh: What gives, man? Why do you seem so wishy-washy this game? Finally, my own opinion in regards to the roleclaims: I think we should come up with a list of most suspicious people and get them to claim first. People like hiro protagonist. I agree that the post you pointed out does make him a little less likely to be mafia. At the time I was obviously giong to push PaqMan again and talismania had listed the risk.nuke voters and suggested that we look at Palmar or PaqMan. However, the discussion certainly wasn't focused on PaqMan quite yet and that's definitely something strong pointing towards hiro protagonist being town. That being said, I think the final mafia member has to be hiro protagonist, zelblade, or Zephirdd (Zephirdd being a clear third right now because of him taking a hit night 1, but still a possibility). Hopefully we will see more discussion on the subject. I believe any of them would make a fantastic lynch target today (pending hiro protagonist's roleclaim of course). I had noticed that there was something off about slOosh as well. I agree that he probably isn't mafia (in fact, I would go so far as to say he almost certainly isn't mafia - his attack on PaqMan during day 1 was way too strong for that), but he's one of my higher SK suspects right now. This is mostly because I expected him to play a more active role in the discussion on day 1. I'm okay with giving you tiers of players I would like to see roleclaim. I'll explain what I would like to see in a separate section at the end of this post. + Show Spoiler [zelblade] + On May 22 2012 17:16 zelblade wrote: Regarding the roleclaim plans, I have stated n1 that I was comfortable with it. I maintain this stance. Qatol's suggested change seems good too, so I would like for us to follow it today. Now to the more important stuff. So you think im scum based off a few weak points. First off, you mention that I defended Paqman. What you dont mention is that I did this near the start of D1, wherein I felt that there was a reasonable explanation of a town Paqman, since I could symphatise with how he mentioned that he didnt contribute much to the plans due to the fact that the plans were already pretty much set when he entered the thread - something similar happened for me, not being able to access the thread till very late in the drafting phase. I never mentioned paqman again in the thread for the primary reason of day 1 being occupied with sentinel, and I didnt find it neccessary to reveal my reads during the night. Also, what the hell do you mean by a "soft" defense? Do you really want me to come out guns blazing and say that Paq is confirmed town D1 based on things that I werent certain of? Qatol's case was an excellent way to apply pressure, why would I bother giving Paq any more help? I was simply stating my thoughts on what I felt was going to be a townie lynch, how is that scummy? Have you never had a wrong read D1? You say I "scold" risk for not following the plan, and reference that I did something similar to decondo. The reason for "scolding" (I dont even know why you call it that when it was just a plea to ask him to follow the damm plan) was because I wanted janitor to be accountable, and felt his actions were really retarded if they were townie at that point in time, since he had the potential to cause a chaotic day 1 which might not have ended so well - (read: if sentinel simply claimed he didnt take janitor). Off you go to write your full case. Anyway, speaking of this, I find the way Hiro calls me out to be extermely suspicious. Im just rehashing a couple of Qatol's points - but why have you been lurking so actively? You say that your activity levels flactuate, but looking at the timestamps clearly indicate that you came out of lurking around 15 minutes after Qatol called you out. Coincidence? I think not. The way that you write suspicions on me are also suspect. You take a old post of mine compared to a recent one of yours and say that it is why I am a better shot and frankly thats complete bullshit as Qatol mentioned due to the time difference between them. Not to mention that your suspicions on me makes me feel that you are using said suspisions as a way to draw heat off yourself and onto me. And of course mafia can claim JOAT - but why do so, and a townie that actually picked it and failed (read:me) will do so too. I dont see your point here I would be rather happy to lynch him right now, though if we are putting the roleclaim plan into effect I am more than willing to wait a little to see what comes out of it. The roleclaim plan is more to help us narrow down who the SK is. I don't believe it will help us very much in finding the last scum (but I obviously could be wrong). The only reason I mentioned I want to hear hiro protagonist's roleclaim first is because I want an idea of what role we would be potentially lynching. Also, he may be able to narrow down our SK search some more. I'm glad to hear that you would like to lynch hiro protagonist, but could you explain why a bit more? Is it simply that you agree with my case on him? Is anyone familiar with hiro protagonist's history so we can compare it to this game? Sorry to be lazy about it, but I simply don't have time for research on the subject today. + Show Spoiler [hiro protagonist] + On May 22 2012 18:25 hiro protagonist wrote: First off, Im a little tipsy. Just a heads up. Ill address Qatols questions: First, for my activity, I had left the thread sometime after the PacMan flip, and did not check in for a while. When you had made your post on me I was in the middle of re-reading the thread and going though filters. I had been doing that for a couple hours by that point, and was not even planing on responding right away, but then you asked risk to shoot me, and I thought this was some sort trap because at the time I thought Vigs only had 1 bullet, and I brought It up. Had you not brought up a case against me,(and especially one that would have me die in the night) I most likely would not have posted at all until the day post, when I would have brought out my full case on zelblade, because I did not have the time to construct it out today. Instead, I made an half ass case because I thought I might die, an I wanted people to look at zelblade if I did die. Second, The two quotes are indeed at different times, and putting them side by side is slightly more pathos than I intended. I can see why zelblade thinks Im misrepresenting him at this point. I put up my quote to aid in my defense. I posted zels because I wanted to go into discussion about not just that he soft defended him but HOW he did. Its not just one thing hes done, but a set of actions that collectively draw me to the conclusion that he is mafia. I plan on addressing this with my full right up on zelblade come morning. Third, ok, roleclaiming, its all the rage i guess. But sense i did not die last night, Ill hold for now. Im down for any organized claiming. just let me know when its my turn One last thing: I was roleblocked last night. see you in the morning I look forward to seeing your full case on zelblade. Like I mentioned earlier, I really feel like the final mafia member is probably one of the three of you, so please persuade me that it isn't you and is zelblade if that is how you feel. On May 22 2012 19:55 Palmar wrote: We should just murder sandroba, it's a really nice and easy way to continue today. And it would be nice and easy way to lynch a probable townie. Could you please start putting a LOT more effort into this game? This is got to be one of the laziest performances I've ever seen out of a "veteran player". + Show Spoiler [Toadesstern] + On May 22 2012 20:10 Toadesstern wrote: Was Qatol shot? We're missing one KP again. SK has 1 KP and mafia has 1 KP but there's only one dead guy and I guess whoever shot blue went for a save hit rather than someone looking good to avoid protection. So unless somehow SK and Mafia (going to use "mafia" for both SK and mafia from now on...) BOTH had the same idea and BOTH shot the exact same guy we're missing one guy. I'd assume Qatol jailed risk or marv and I'm pretty sure mafia assumed something along those lines as well. Or at least someone like Risk / marv. The imortant part is that Qatol can't jail himself, even if he could he would probably RB himself before protecting rendering the protection useless :p The the interesting part here is, did mafia shoot into someone like Risk / marv and we'll probably never know because Risk / marv won't get confirmation on that one according to Chaoser, or did mafia shoot Qatol because that would have been the reasonable thing to do if you want to avoid protection, unless of course there's a real medic around, however I'd take that risk over shooting into risk / marv without a second of a thought as mafia. Right now I'd assume Qatol did not jail risk and rather went for his #2 "target" because he said something along the lines "vigs shoot into XYZ" yesterday, didn't he? So he probably wanted risk to shoot because there's not a fantastillion vigs around anymore. Risk could tell us if he was RB'ed but he can not tell us if he was protected and Qatol could just tell us who he jailed :p However the interesting part here is why Qatol is not dead. He is the guy able to save everyones life except for his own. So I'd actually say the 2nd hit was Qatol and he was protected by a real medic. Can't imagine mafia not wanting Qatol dead right now when he's even the save-hit if there's no 2nd medic. Confirmation on who was RB'ed / protected / hit would still be nice to figure this out. I wasn't shot last night. My guess is both the Mafia and the SK think the other will be shooting me, so they are both trying to shoot other players. If I had to guess, I'd guess that the SK shot Bluelightz (specifically hunting for a potential role cop, and finding him). I'd guess that the Mafia likely didn't shoot at all or shot the SK. But that is a pure guess. + Show Spoiler [Zephirdd] + On May 22 2012 20:25 Zephirdd wrote: TBH Barundar should be lynched. Bluelightz makes decent case for the first time in his life -> he is killed the day after. COINCIDENCE? I THINK NOT Now, on a serious note, I agree with the mass claim plan. And I'll agree with it by claiming. There is a Politician in game. I picked Politician and got Vanilla. I wanted to deny/confirm a possible Politician in game, and I didn't claim earlier to create suspicion for mafia(omg, maybe I would be a protective role right?). At this point, this information is better for town. I wanted marv's partner(who isn't me!) to claim because he could be higher up than me on the list, but if the politician(and probably SK) is Barundar as I suspect, I'm the one who should be claiming. Now, if you want a case on Barundar, I present you Bluelightz' best case ever. I think it would be premature to lynch anyone as a SK suspect until we get our roleclaims in order. Please withdraw your vote for now. However, I think it is interesting that someone else is also claiming to have whiffed on Politician. I wish you had claimed earlier - the suspicion isn't as valuable to us as getting a better feel for the location of such an anti-town role. + Show Spoiler [Toadesstern] + On May 22 2012 21:03 Toadesstern wrote: yeah exactly, however I only had the nested quote of this one in my mind, didn't see chaosers update until you just said that: so I thought he assumed he would get a notification when really he would not. But that statement makes clear that he would have gotten an notification which brings us to our problem again: We have a jailer who can protect people but he protected someone that didn't end up being shot and we're missing KP => we probably have a medic or someone shot into a vet / hider. Pretty sure a vet and a medic would get a notification as well, not sure about the hider though. I'm just mentioning that because it could be an issue for the massclaim and I would like Qatols thought on that before starting doing anyting because if we have a medic that could change some things. I'm going to do whatever Qatol says because clearly he's carrying town right now but I want his comment on that one before starting everything to make sure he just didn't forget about that part. Once again, I cannot carry the town any more this game. I'll be around, but I can't keep doing all of the heavy lifting. I would suggest doing a lot more of the thinking on your own and taking the time to make a spreadsheet for yourself. Alternatively, you can spend some time on various people's filters, starting with mine if you feel I'm on the right track, and then moving on to the possible suspects. There are several players in the game now who seem to have a pretty good idea of what we should be doing. If you read a little, you should be able to figure them out relatively easily. I'm relatively sure I know what he's going to claim, and if I'm right, it should take a lot of heat off him. On May 22 2012 21:47 sandroba wrote: I think barundar is the sk (he sugested the cpr mass murder thing, which seemed weird at the time, but I guess it makes sense as sk) and hiro is the mafia. @Palmar How come you are pushing me for not devoting much time to this game while you are yourself doing the same? Let me play diablo in peace. What I said for Palmar goes double for you. "Give me kp and I'll give you dead scum." Hmph. If you don't plan to devote the time to play properly (like because you're going to be spending your time on diablo), don't sign up, especially in a game where a bunch of newer players didn't get in. On May 22 2012 22:42 Mattchew wrote: what do you think about barundar and I think that snarfs/sandroba is the last scum You still haven't answered my earlier question. Do you think it is more valuable for the scum to bus their teammate than to use the JOAT's KP role and let the JOAT survive another day? Also, I bring up a different post than risk.nuke, which is the main reason I cannot see Snarfs as being anything but town: + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote: One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town. This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else. To address some points: risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor. Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue. @Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind. My scum rank for the three are: 1. Sentinel 2. risk.nuke 3. marvellosity Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan. To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game. Scum has absolutely NO reason to refocus the discussion onto risk.nuke, Sentinel, and marvellosity when there is a chance they will lose their JOAT day one. None at all. Heck, they may not have even WANTED a lynch because it keeps the town busy with this situation longer and keeps us from looking for other accused members (such as PaqMan). Why would the mafia convince slOosh and myself to refocus onto the sentinel/risk.nuke/marvellosity discussion when they benefit from having a split vote? + Show Spoiler [Palmar] + On May 22 2012 23:10 Palmar wrote: I had initial reservations about him, but mostly just the "not-sure-if-town" type of thing. Like I would rather kill a few other people. I still think Toad might be possible scum or something in that lieu. I completely agree on Toad. He is definitely still a possibility. However, I agree that we have better targets right now. I just disagree that sandroba is one of them. + Show Spoiler [Zephirdd] + On May 22 2012 23:19 Zephirdd wrote: Lool! Yeah right. I'm a SK that just claimed vt-politician and is pushing the ass of someone just to be seen as a liar after his flip, RIGHT? Even if I was SK, I'd be dead as soon as you, sloosh and misder died. And this could be achieved as soon as the next night, if you consider lynch+vigi+mafia shot. Don't be silly mr SK. Woah, calm down a little, please. He said that it's possible you took politician and are lying about it. He even said he doubted it was true. I agree with him completely. We have already seen something similar to this happen in this game with Sentinel. Are you really getting on zelblade simply for being careful? As far as claiming tiers go, I would suggest the following: Tier 1: slOosh and Misder Tier 2: hiro protagonist and Barundar Tier 3: Snarfs First claim vanilla or role. Second, if vanilla, claim what you tried to take. Third, after the vanillas have all claimed, then claim your role if you got one. Within each step, do them in tiered order. So first slOosh and Misder claim vanilla/role. Then hiro and Barundar (though Barundar has already done this, so ignore him for this step). Then Snarfs. Then move on to the vanilla claiming step, etc. Also, marvellosity, who is your townie? (Here's hoping it isn't Snarfs.) | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
1. Palmar, I realize now that my last post regarding you was extremely harsh. I apologize. That being said, it feels like your reads are completely different from mine even though I think you're town, and that is very frustrating to me. Maybe it's because you're trying to rely on behavior while I've been relying mostly on logic? Also, I think I'm still reacting poorly to the way you posted during the pre-day 1 phases. Regardless, I was out of line. You are clearly putting in an effort. That being said, I still don't think sandroba is mafia because I can't see mafia busing in that position. 2. Snarfs, you being the mason townie makes me sad, and not just because it means we have a bigger list of players to sort through to find the SK. You were my strongest townie read by far and I was hoping to confirm someone else I wasn't quite so sure of. I think you're mostly on the right track. The only thing I'm unsure of is voting for Barundar and assuming that everyone else is telling the truth about their picks (I know others are doing more of this than you are). Do you think we are better served by going for the people who are likely to be SK or the people who are likely to be mafia? Or maybe the one player who stands a decent chance of being either one (Zephirdd)? 3. Hiro, I really hope you're telling the truth, if only because it will be the second and third time I've ever been protected by a medic and that makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside. Regardless, I don't think you're a good target for a lynch with a claim like that. I think both the mafia and the SK have to seriously consider hitting you very quickly or risk having you stop their hits (your role is the most dangerous one out there for them right now), so a claim like that is extremely dangerous for you, and that's good enough for me right now. 4. Misder, I thought Barundar was going to claim roleblocker. That doesn't seem as likely now that you've claimed it. | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 24 2012 01:06 Snarfs wrote: I'm switching my vote to hiro. As others have pointed out, it makes little sense for either of them to claim the way they did. However, it makes less sense for Barundar to claim that role second. The only goal Barundar could have is to get the doctor lynched so that he has a free shot at Qatol tonight, but then he still dies tomorrow and mafia lose. If Barundar is mafia, at the time of his claim, he had given his team a ZERO percent chance at winning. At least hiro, with his earlier claim, could have been hoping that Barundar did not pick doctor, in addition to knowing that if he causes a mislynch of a doctor he can shoot Qatol. If Hiro is mafia, at the time of his claim, he had a GREATER THAN ZERO percent chance of winning. In addition to this, hiro makes the most sense for mafia. I agreed with much of what Qatol said in his case and had come to similar conclusions before the whole roleclaim. Especially notice how he just says that he does not think we should lynch Sentinel without any reasoning. [Link] Now, knowing that he is in the mess of things, I think that he is a more viable target than Barundar. Think about it from Barundar's and hiro's perspectives. Barundar just threw the game if he's either mafia or SK. This would be the last explanation I would give for anyone's play on TL. hiro at least had a chance that Barundar would not claim doctor. I suggest everyone switch to hiro as it makes more sense logically for him to be mafia. ##Unvote Barundar ##Vote hiro protagonist I would like to emphasize one thing on top of this (I agree that resolving Barundar vs. hiro protagonist is the correct next move and hiro is the better lynch candidate). Barundar claimed doctor second. It makes a lot less sense to lie about your role and claim to have gotten it when it has already been claimed. If he were lying mafia, I don't understand why he wouldn't simply claim a reasonable role which hasn't been claimed yet like Bullet Bill or Veteran. Claiming doctor the way Barundar did is very pro-town and gives us a no-brainer lynch on hiro protagonist next. Obviously, if hiro flips town, then we have an easy next lynch. ##Vote: hiro protagonist | ||
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 24 2012 01:53 Toadesstern wrote: EBWOP: + Show Spoiler [clicky!] + On May 24 2012 01:51 Toadesstern wrote: if that would be the case it would be best to lynch Barundar, because clearly he is either mafia or SK according to you except for scenario two where he "only" got a 50% chance to be SK. The reason this is wrong is because the conclusions are wrong. If hiro is medic mafia anyone could be the SK. Yes Barundar could be the SK as well but it could be zephird, myself, or someone else as well. Same goes for if hiro is mafia _____ Actually, there are several mistakes, but the big one is treating them like they are equally likely. In fact, I think scenario 1 is nearly impossible, if not completely impossible. I don't believe Barundar would suicide by giving us a 50/50 lynch when we can afford to mislynch. However, the conclusion is correct. Townies have no reason to lie right now. If hiro flips mafia medic, then Barundar has to be SK. I think the most likely situation is that hiro is mafia ____ (not medic), in which case we have a few candidates for SK - Zephirdd, Barundar, Toadesstern, and slOosh. (Note: either Zephirdd is the lying Politician or he is town and the role is actually above him, so we don't need to consider Palmar or hiro for SK. zelblade doesn't make sense for SK because, while he would know JOAT was in the first 4 picks as mafia, he would have no way of specifically claiming that role had gone as SK unless he tried to take it.) However, I think Barundar should be the last lynch on that list (assuming hiro flips red) and Toadesstern should be second to last. So really it's probably either Zephirdd or slOosh. Misder's conclusions are correct for the case in which hiro flips town. Barundar is an easy next lynch. | ||
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