|
On May 17 2012 11:03 risk.nuke wrote: Lol this confirms Mattchew. Qatol you can't seriously believe anything else. No it doesn't. I would be willing to consider him as confirmed if he hadn't shot the guy with the role we were most trying to deny before the copycat is assigned. Day vigging the CPR Doctor before the day 1 lynch is an incredibly anti-town act. I still think it is possible that the mafia got CPR, Day Vigi, and Copy Cat and now there is a hidden CPR doctor on the loose. And besides, how does this do anything for confirming him not to be SK? The SK needs the game to go by quickly just as badly as the mafia do, if not more badly. A CPR slipping into unknown hands can potentially further that goal.
It isn't like I'm advocating that we lynch Mattchew right now. I still think PaqMan is the best lynch target by far. I'm just saying that we shouldn't consider Mattchew as 100% townie after this. This shot does not place Mattchew above all suspicion for the remainder of the game.
|
On May 17 2012 11:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 10:27 Qatol wrote: I would like to point out that this in no way confirms Mattchew. The main reason for this is because the Copy Cat just got the CPR Doctor role. If you got the role, claim it and don't use it. If nobody claims the role, I'm going to have to assume it went to an anti-town player. Why would you kill one of your own just so the copycat can get the same role? Makes no sense. I can see a decent train of thought to allow such an action (assuming that the mafia picked CPR, Day Vigi, and Copy Cat). We have been talking throughout the first day about roleblocking the CPR doctor. This way, that isn't going to happen. Plus it puts a mafia member into a position to heavily mislead the town for the rest of the game.
|
On May 17 2012 11:48 Misder wrote: lol. dat dayvig shot. I actually had him as town too~
We now know what role Mattchew is. I think a real easy way to clear him is if we have a tracker. If we do, we know that he does not have a role ability, so if mafia does shoot, Mattchew would go to the target (I'm pretty sure that's how the mechanics work anyways). And because of this possibility, it makes it unlikely that Mattchew is scum (unless, of course they overlooked it). Anyways, it would be best if we can do this. Thoughts? Tracker doesn't work like that. The Day Vigilante ability overrides Mattchew's alignment ability. Because the Day Vigilante will never move at night, neither will Mattchew.
|
I'll address Mattchew and the Janitor situation here and then move on to PaqMan in a separate post.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 17 2012 23:11 Mattchew wrote:@Barundar and Qatol and others who think I could be scum I would like to elaborate on my thought process behind shooting decon. 1. I voted (in the poll not in thread) for PYP. This is because before Palmar even spoke of it and before alignments went out, I wanted to dayvig someone 1 post into the game (as town, as scum idk what i woulda done). I firmly believe everyone voting PYP picked that setup not because they could come up with a sweet pre-game plan, but because they could almost guarantee themselves a blue role meaning they have some sort of control over the game. This is why I put so little effort into the pre-game after my first couple posts, mostly because I realized that I was going to pick the role I wanted (dayvig) so why would I expect anything else out of everyone else (I kinda hinted at all this here: + Show Spoiler +On May 15 2012 05:38 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 05:37 Palmar wrote:On May 15 2012 05:36 Mattchew wrote:On May 15 2012 05:35 Palmar wrote: Bitch is a compliment in my own twisted way. you should just go fishing Announcement, I intend to win this draft thing and draft a day vigilante and shoot the first person I don't like. not if i get there first... they call me quick draw mcgraw ) 2. The moment Decon said I am pick 1,1 I immediately thought of this + Show Spoiler +. There was nothing particularly scummy about announcing his intentions to pick 1,1. It got scummy when he actually got the top spot. I could wrap my head around no other townies picking the 1,1 or 1,# because everyone is attempting to get the best position for themselves (this goes back to my why we voted PYP theory) and pick 1,# means you are guaranteeing yourself to drop down a substantial amount of spots. I could not wrap my brain around scum not blocking out a townie at the top spot and trying to get the CPR doc (literally an extra KP) for themselves. 3. I stand by what I said about the CPR Doc role. I think it leads to a lot of extra dead townies regardless of whether town or scum gets it. 4. When I saw I got the Dayvig role, I knew I was shooting immediately. To be honest, if Decon had not gotten the first pick, I would have been shooting Palmar, because I had said so. My numbers were 11,4 (11 is my favorite number, 4 is the number of Scott Stevens). I was the 5th pick so I sent in my dayvig selection literally as soon as I saw the picking order. I reared back and shot with the hopes of hitting scum, knowing that the reality was it was kinda unlikely but atleast I would probably saving the lives of a lot of others (kinda like the Batman's dilemma). Bonus :Here is a video of me (Scott Stevens) hitting Decon (Paul Kariya) + Show Spoiler +5. The Copycat theory never entered my thought process because I had not read through the roles enough and didn't really partake in any pre-game plans. If I just gave scum a secret CPR Doc, woops!
Qatol, I actually would really like to see everyone's numbers they picked. I think that contrary to your opinion there is alignment information to be extracted from the numbers. Another question I have for people is what are the chances a scum team picked copycat if I am town? Unless they were going to hardcore bus decon today to get him lynched I don't see any reason for a scum team to pick that role considering someone is most likely going to be lynched today that is mostly out of their control. 1. Not true. I definitely picked PYP for the planning aspects. I don't even like having a blue role when I get one. But this is a discussion best left for post-game or for another thread.
2. I understand the logic of this, but the reason I'm skeptical about whether or not you are actually innocent for sure is because this took a lot of thought. You clearly aren't stupid, and you clearly thought about the setup and the mafia's motivations carefully. It is just mind boggling to me that you wouldn't foresee the CPR going to the Copy Cat after your shot. Even if you hadn't thought of it, it was mentioned several times in the thread early on. I understand that you didn't really want to participate in that part of the game, but not reading the thread is simply irresponsible.
It is now 15 hours after your shot and the Copy Cat hasn't claimed. I'm going to have to assume that either scum just got the CPR doctor at an undisclosed location in the queue or nobody took Copy Cat, and I'm leaning towards the former. If anyone tried to take copycat and missed, please claim it now. Copycat: you should still feel free to claim as a way of helping to clear yourself, but if you don't claim and a rolecop finds you, we are going to have to lynch you immediately.
3. I agree completely. The CPR Doctor role should never be used. It is too anti-town.
4. Now I'm confused.
I reared back and shot with the hopes of hitting scum, knowing that the reality was it was kinda unlikely but atleast I would probably saving the lives of a lot of others (kinda like the Batman's dilemma). You say here it is "kinda unlikely" you were going to hit scum.
But in #2 you say the following:
I could not wrap my brain around scum not blocking out a townie at the top spot and trying to get the CPR doc (literally an extra KP) for themselves. This makes it seem like you thought Deconduo almost had to be mafia because of his plan and the role he would be selecting.
So which was it? Did you think it was likely you were shooting scum or not? Under #2 you make it seem like you thought about deconduo's spot in the queue and its relation to the CPR doctor role very carefully. On the other hand, here you make it seem like you were just shooting to try and take the role out of the game, thinking that it was unlikely that scum had the role. Please explain.
5. How did you know that the CPR Doctor is so important to the game to warrant the thought process from #2 and #3 if you barely read through the roles and didn't look at the pre-game plans?
As I mentioned earlier, I don't mind people posting their numbers, but I want it to be part of a content-filled post and not a one-liner post contributing only their numbers and nothing else. And this may be mostly moot because Barundar seems to have most of the numbers figured out (although there is a mistake - Probulous didn't send in numbers at all).
Assuming you are town, I think there is still a chance the mafia had the copycat role anyways. I think there is a nonzero possibility that the scum were planning on trying for a no lynch for day 1 and then trying to grab a power role from early in the queue. Alternatively, they could have considered tricking the town into a stupid lynch on a player they think has a desirable role. Or maybe one of their members had a bad position and they figured a random role was better than the alternative. Any of the above are moves I would at least consider as scum if I wasn't entirely comfortable with the drafting positions of all of the scum members.
Regarding the Janitor, there are 2 more things we need to know: 1. Marvellosity, what role did you try to take? We know you didn't get Janitor, but we don't know what role pick you sent in. 2. Risk.nuke, did you pick Janitor? If the answer is no, we don't need to know which role you did select, but if the answer is yes, it will save us from a wild goose chase.
|
Still working on the PaqMan post, but I'll comment on everything else quickly.
On May 18 2012 02:16 marvellosity wrote:Qatol, I chose neither Janitor nor CPR Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 22:00 marvellosity wrote:On May 17 2012 21:41 zelblade wrote: Marvellosity you took CPR > VT?
I chose neither, I felt the fact that I explicitly stated I would do so on more than one occasion would be enough to keep the players above me in line. That is what I meant in this post Understood. I misread that post. My apologies.
On May 18 2012 02:36 Mattchew wrote: @quatol
I said that it was kinda unlikely that I were to hit scum because while I thought my logic was good and all (making me at the time relatively confident), I understood/understand that there was still only a 5(or6)/19 or around 1/4 chance of me hitting scum. The fact that it was almost guaranteed that he took the most anti-town role was what lead me to not second guessing my shot.
It's kinda like my first posts in the game where I talk about everyone being assigned a pick. I thought that was logical at the time, but in retrospect realized it was bad for town and plain stupid.
The CPR Doc was talked about in the sign up phase of the game and people were excited about it. It drew a ton of attention to anyone reading the thread at anytime and I had never heard of it. At somepoint when I glanced over the roles I probably read the copycat role, but in no way did it factor into my decision to shoot decon which is irresponsible i guess. In all honesty though, I know I am town. So even now, knowing about the copycat role, I think it was the right choice to shoot First of all, Quatol is the smurf player playing in Caller's game. No u in Qatol!
Secondly, if your logic is good, why don't your chances increase? You can't be relatively confident in your shot if you think it only has a 1/4 chance of hitting scum. That doesn't make sense. I realize that it is good for the town to kill the most anti-town role, but you can't say your odds are both good and bad.
Thirdly, you make a good point about the CPR Doctor being discussed in the signup phase. I had forgotten that people did that. However, let me be specific, are you claiming that: 1. You didn't read between page 15 when you posted last and Palmar's appearance on page 18, when you started posting again. 2. You didn't read the roles very carefully at all beyond Day Vigilante and CPR Doctor. until after your shot?
I disagree that it was the right choice to shoot. We had already planned to roleblock deconduo night 1. A day 2 shot probably removes the role from the game for good, rather than just passing it to an unknown mafia player.
On May 18 2012 02:48 Mattchew wrote: I kind of want to lynch Risk.Nuke because he's the janitor and because of some numbers thing I worked out in my head
Why is he the janitor over marvellosity or [UoN]Sentinel?
[UoN]Sentinel, please confirm that you tried to take Janitor but did not get it. That is how I am reading your post.
|
You guys, unless you're going to commit to making a long analysis, don't bring up a new target for lynch. This kind of lazy/impulsive lynching is a way to get us in trouble. We're just going to divide the town and wind up letting the mafia control the lynch or destroy the productive atmosphere we had earlier.
Also, because I don't think lynching Mattchew is a good idea right now, I'm going to stop taking about him and focus on PaqMan.
|
On May 18 2012 03:59 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2012 03:54 Qatol wrote: You guys, unless you're going to commit to making a long analysis, don't bring up a new target for lynch. This kind of lazy/impulsive lynching is a way to get us in trouble. We're just going to divide the town and wind up letting the mafia control the lynch or destroy the productive atmosphere we had earlier.
Also, because I don't think lynching Mattchew is a good idea right now, I'm going to stop taking about him and focus on PaqMan. Not much to analyze in my vote. Sentinel said he would do one thing (which would benefit town), then did another (thus, benefiting mafia) while not making it clear that he didn't do the thing he intended to do (making it seem like he tried to benefit town, when in fact benefitting mafia). Why would town do this? What exactly did he say he would do which he didn't do? He said he would take Janitor. He tried to take Janitor. He claims he got vanilla instead. What about that is anti-town? Calm down a little and think this through, please. I'm not necessarily saying he isn't the best lynch target of the 3 (him, risk.nuke, and marvellosity), but I am saying that your logic for voting him isn't sound. This is why you need to do an analysis. And I still think PaqMan is a stronger target (sorry my post is taking so long - I'm at 6 pages in word and counting). All I'm doing is trying to get everyone to calm down and have an open mind about lynch targets.
|
Regardless of any discussion on the first 3 players and the location of the Janitor role, I still think we should be lynching PaqMan. Even assuming we have a 1 in 3 chance of lynching scum between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and [UoN]Sentinel, I think our chances are much higher of hitting scum with PaqMan. Note that sometimes I say "Mafia" when I really mean "Anti-town" - hard habit to break, but you get the idea.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 17 2012 12:44 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 10:14 Qatol wrote:Let me preface this discussion by stating that we have seen very little arguing between players so far. The number selections being completely random and the discussions about roles have gone almost completely without debate. This is a very pro-town atmosphere and tells me that the mafia are trying to blend into the discussion rather than keep the town from working together. The mafia haven't been working towards encouraging arguments at this point. Therefore, the people we should be looking at first are the ones who are hovering around the edges of the discussion without adding much. As promised, I give you my strong lynch target: PaqManFirst, he undergoes a stark change in attitude after the game starts. When the game is still in its setup stages, he's positively giddy about the game starting. On May 11 2012 12:00 PaqMan wrote: Woot! Pretty psyched about getting in! However, once the game starts, his posting undergoes a major change. He becomes much more conservative in his posting, to the point where he might be considered apathetic about the game. He spends most of the number selection phase lurking in the background asking a question or two here and there, but not really making much of an attempt to contribute. Where did the pregame excitement go? As I said, I'm not going to contribute if I have nothing to contribute. You yourself were just complaining of spam earlier. When the number selection started, by the time I had logged on and checked the thread, discussion was in full throttle. Plans were already pushed and people's minds already set. Am I honestly getting scolded for asking questions about plans that were discussed and settled on while I was absent?
Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 10:14 Qatol wrote:Notice this post: On May 15 2012 10:19 PaqMan wrote:On May 15 2012 09:35 talismania wrote: Paqman, the plans being discussed all revolve around setting the roles to be picked by the top three or so draft winners. In effect, they are pre-claiming the roles that those three people will get. But what if the top three winners, regardless of alignment, simply choose to not follow one of the plans laid out? That's what I'm wondering, if nobody in the top 3-5 chooses CPR/Janitor/RB then should whoever gets that power claim? 1)The question to ask is "why would he post something like this?" Note that nobody at the time was posting any reservations about the number selection plan at all. So why would he ask this? Because he's trying to make it look like he's involved in the discussion and making useful posts without really advancing the main discussion at all. 2)These posts made part of one of his next posts even more surprising: On May 15 2012 13:20 PaqMan wrote: I noticed it, Toad. I tend to not comment on things if I can't make any sort of contribution. I'm not really sure how to explain this but Qatol just seems more aggressive in asserting his opinion and getting the point across, or something. But yeah don't think that your posts are being ignored. Then what was that comment earlier? And why have you been asking questions up to this point without giving your opinion on anything? Up to this point, you haven't contributed anything at all! We literally know your opinion on nothing. But you are still highlighting different parts of the plan. 1) "why would he post something like this?" I think the answer's quite obvious here. I was curious about what would be the best thing to do should that scenario occur. Should all three people choose to completely disregard the plans that everyone decided on and someone lower on the list, such as #8 or 9 or 10 or etc, ends up with CPR/Janitor, should they claim it? Am I really getting scolded for thinking ahead? My complete misunderstanding of how PyP works during the start of the game is better explained by the fact that I've never done a pyp. 2) That comment was a question on the plans that were laid out while I was away. Show nested quote +And why have you been asking questions up to this point without giving your opinion on anything? + Show Spoiler [my opinions] +On May 15 2012 14:11 PaqMan wrote: If scum obtain the CPR role then it's definitely worth taking out of play, I don't understand how you could argue about that. They already start off with the upper hand and denying them one of the strongest roles in the game is a plus for town. On May 17 2012 09:20 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 09:04 Toadesstern wrote:On May 17 2012 08:11 marvellosity wrote: On risk: normally people who resist plans so vocally are actually townie, scum tend not to risk it (forgive the pun). It's not the point that he is resisting the plan. The fact that he was fine with the plan before Role-PMs went out and changed his mind once he got his role PM is the troublesome part. Yes usually people who are that vocal don't turn out to be mafia but he could very well do that on purpose. Remember how I played in LI and WBG said "no way Toad is mafia. He said VE is mafia and told us that he hasn't even done a case on VE when asked about that. Mafias aren't usually talking about things like that so transparent" and I ended up being mafia although wbg was perfectly right with his statement. I already said to blue in another thread it's not about wether it's "normal" for mafia or town. It's about wether or not it's normal for the specific guy and if you think he has the balls to do that as mafia. I think he would have the balls to do it, making it a null for me. And on top of a null I have a guy who ignores everything what's going on while we have multiple people telling everyone that we can't change the plan once Role-PMs are out and that guy comes in here once Role-PMs are out telling everyone that he want's to destroy the plan on purpose. If he does that he is mafia. If he isn't doing it he's a townie who thought it's a good idea to draw attention away from the traitor by looking like a mafia on purpose. We'll find out about it d2 :p It's possible he's just trying to bait scum into picking janitor so that they end up being vanilla. You have a good point but I really can't imagine scum waiting until after the draft order is posted then purposely act against a plan that was agreed upon by everyone. Throw in the fact that he's making a huge deal about it as well. He could have just as easily not told us his intentions. On May 16 2012 13:21 PaqMan wrote: Yepp, I don't understand that. Some discussion is always better than complete silence. Makes it too easy for scum.
That said, my numbers were [2,2]. I didn't give much thought when I was choosing my numbers. I was originally going to do [4,2] but risk declared that as his number and I didn't want to end up at the bottom.
Also, lol at deconduo. Assuming that he went through with [1,1] I'm surprised no one else picked it. Idk why, I just thought that someone would troll him and pick the same number. Would have been pretty funny. Please tell me that those aren't opinions. I've contributed nothing at all? Well D1 literally just started only a few hours ago. Of course I'm not going to be slapping down cases and FoS's. If you mean contributing to plans, of course I had nothing to contribute. You had quarter-page long posts covering the role plans, so what the hell is left to say besides "I approve!". Believe it or not, but my questions did contribute. Perhaps they were a little idiotic but they kept the discussion from going stagnate and they raised a good point.
Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 10:14 Qatol wrote:Now let's compare this to another recent game where PaqMan was a townie: Mafia 'Area' LIII He started very similarly, chomping at the bit for the game to start. However, notice his posts once the game started: On April 21 2012 10:49 PaqMan wrote: I like Gonzaw's idea of the vig's claiming. Only problem with that is that Scum will have a list of vig's and won't have to do any sniping.. So now that I think about it, I don't really like that idea at all lol.
Town can't keep assuming things this game. It'll make an ass out of u and me. We don't know how many of what roles there are and continuous speculation isn't going to help at all. There is a HUGE difference between how he acts here. He's comfortable asserting his opinion when questioning an idea. Notice that he has done nothing of the sort in this game other than pointing out that posting numbers doesn't hurt the town if done in the context of a larger post. Now look at one more post from Area LIII which draws an even bigger contrast to the posts he has been making in this game: On April 21 2012 12:01 PaqMan wrote: But I do agree with you VE. Giving scum any more info puts them in an even greater advantage over us. A mass vig claim would be the same as handing them a hit list. some of gonzaw's points however are pretty valid (no late-game chaos with vig claiming before lynch, etc etc).
Either way, I can't see a vig following either one of y'alls policies. He claims, town lynches him and nothing is gained. He claims, chance of mafia taking him out or keeps him alive, either way there's chaos.
I suggest that our vigilante (if we have one) doesn't claim at all. If he's about to be lynched then he needs to defend himself as a normal townie because claiming vig is going to create a shitstorm for us, which gives scum the upper hand. If he's going to use his kp one someone, he doesn't need to claim before or after the kill. It's going to create too much confusion and WIFOM and finger-pointing and shit.
So I think that vigilantes should not make any claims this game.
This is a wonderful pro-town post. He points out potential flaws in a plan and suggests an improvement. He hasn't even come CLOSE to doing something like this in the current game even though all we have done so far is talk about plans! He has the ability to do so, he just hasn't. I'm not sure what to say regarding this part of your case because I see no difference between my posting at all. It's already stated above but I'll say it again. My questions did contribute to discussion. I was looking for potential flaws in the plans and I was questioning possible scenarios and what would be the best course of action if said scenarios occurred.
Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 10:14 Qatol wrote: So, in summary, PaqMan fits the profile we should be looking for as a mafia, we saw a dramatic shift between his pre-game and current posting styles, his posts show that he is scared to give meaningful contribution to the ongoing discussion, he clearly doesn't care about the well-being of the town, and his history tells us that this is completely out of character for him. All of this adds up to Mafia. -not scared, didn't have anything useful to contribute to plans that everyone already agreed on. -I dont care? I lost the first mafia game I've played in over 6 months. My 2nd game is ongoing. And I'm definitely not down to start my 3rd with getting mislynched D1 because a vet pushed me for asking questions. TL;DR I'm town and you're wrong. If those are your only points for thinking I'm scum you need to do better than that. First of all, notice what PaqMan is really saying. He's just saying that I'm wrong, but he still isn't going to change what he has been doing so far this game. And like Sloosh pointed out, his way of saying that I'm wrong is by misrepresenting my words. I'm not criticizing him for asking questions. I'm criticizing him for not bringing anything material to the table despite acting like he's part of the discussion, which is a significant change from how he acted in a previous game, even though, by all indications, he was just as fired up about this game as he was the other one.
As he says, he isn't going to post if he has nothing to contribute. Then why does he have 16 posts up to this point without a material contribution to the game? He has given us more updates about his schedule than he has given us opinions about what has happened so far! He says he is just asking questions about things which were discussed while he was absent. While this is true, I'm pointing out that this is a very big change in demeanor compared to how he was acting in a previous game (and other games he has played in as well for that matter - ignoring the ongoing game of course, but I figured the posts in Area XLIII showed my point well enough without forcing me to bring up his Cthsazsa posts which show the same behavior). However, that was not my only point, there was a HUGE change in demeanor compared to how he was acting before the game started as well! Before the game started, he was eager to be a part of it. After the game started, he's acting almost like a disinterested observer.
Snarfs, I see you mentioned that the situation in which people didn't follow the picking plan actually happened. However, you can't read that post with this sort of backwards-looking logic. You have to look at it in the context of when it was made if you want to use this form of analysis. At the time, there was no indication of anyone dissenting to the plan at all.
On May 15 2012 12:44 PaqMan wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On May 15 2012 11:37 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2012 10:19 PaqMan wrote:On May 15 2012 09:35 talismania wrote: Paqman, the plans being discussed all revolve around setting the roles to be picked by the top three or so draft winners. In effect, they are pre-claiming the roles that those three people will get. But what if the top three winners, regardless of alignment, simply choose to not follow one of the plans laid out? That's what I'm wondering, if nobody in the top 3-5 chooses CPR/Janitor/RB then should whoever gets that power claim? Who are you thinking wouldn't follow the plans? Nobody is even arguing against them right now. Are you suggesting that there are 3-5 people who think it is better to disagree and silently act on their own rather than talking about their concerns openly right now? That's pretty anti-town behavior on their part. If anyone has reservations about assigning the roles as we are discussing, please bring them forward now. However, if the plan isn't followed and someone lower in the queue happens to get the Janitor or CPR Doctor (as I mentioned earlier, you should consider all roles fair game just in case, no matter where you are in the queue - use your judgment based on your reads on the people above you and your location), then yeah, they should claim after the Copy Cat has been assigned. It creates accountability, which is never a bad thing. Note: this is only with regards to the CPR Doctor and the Janitor roles. This is not an invitation to claim your role (or lack thereof) for no reason later.It's possible that these plans won't work if the top 3 picks are all mafia/SK, but then we can figure them out via the KP numbers. And it isn't like they won't drop like flies once we figure out what happened. This is the whole point of slowing down the game - to give the town time to organize. That's why I said what if. So notice how he immediately dropped his objection in a relatively timid fashion and essentially dropped out of the conversation for the rest of the phase. Why didn't he push his question to trigger more discussion if he was genuinely concerned that it was a possibility? Because he didn't want to make waves and he didn't want to draw attention to himself. Who acts like that? Anti-town players trying to blend in and timid/disinterested townies. But we have already ruled out that he is disinterested because of the way he was posting before the game started. And we have ruled out that he is timid because of how he has posted in previous games. That only leaves Anti-town.
I slightly misstated my point when I said that he doesn't give his opinion on things. He does. However, they're always extremely "safe" opinions, all of which have either been stated in this game, a previous one, or they doesn't help the town any more than the mafia. Note the 3 posts he points out: + Show Spoiler +On May 15 2012 14:11 PaqMan wrote: If scum obtain the CPR role then it's definitely worth taking out of play, I don't understand how you could argue about that. They already start off with the upper hand and denying them one of the strongest roles in the game is a plus for town. This was stated by pretty much every player in the game. This isn't an opinion, this is him parroting the logical course of action as agreed upon by everyone (at the time). On May 17 2012 09:20 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2012 09:04 Toadesstern wrote:On May 17 2012 08:11 marvellosity wrote: On risk: normally people who resist plans so vocally are actually townie, scum tend not to risk it (forgive the pun). It's not the point that he is resisting the plan. The fact that he was fine with the plan before Role-PMs went out and changed his mind once he got his role PM is the troublesome part. Yes usually people who are that vocal don't turn out to be mafia but he could very well do that on purpose. Remember how I played in LI and WBG said "no way Toad is mafia. He said VE is mafia and told us that he hasn't even done a case on VE when asked about that. Mafias aren't usually talking about things like that so transparent" and I ended up being mafia although wbg was perfectly right with his statement. I already said to blue in another thread it's not about wether it's "normal" for mafia or town. It's about wether or not it's normal for the specific guy and if you think he has the balls to do that as mafia. I think he would have the balls to do it, making it a null for me. And on top of a null I have a guy who ignores everything what's going on while we have multiple people telling everyone that we can't change the plan once Role-PMs are out and that guy comes in here once Role-PMs are out telling everyone that he want's to destroy the plan on purpose. If he does that he is mafia. If he isn't doing it he's a townie who thought it's a good idea to draw attention away from the traitor by looking like a mafia on purpose. We'll find out about it d2 :p It's possible he's just trying to bait scum into picking janitor so that they end up being vanilla. You have a good point but I really can't imagine scum waiting until after the draft order is posted then purposely act against a plan that was agreed upon by everyone. Throw in the fact that he's making a huge deal about it as well. He could have just as easily not told us his intentions. Note that this post doesn't actually help the town or the mafia. This is because the post doesn't give any additional positive direction to the town or reduce any options for the mafia. All it does is tell us that PaqMan is thinking about players baiting the mafia into taking picks. It's pure speculation and may actually help the mafia more than the town by pointing out the potential mind game! Finally, he makes a post talking about posting our numbers. This has been done in every single PYP to my knowledge because "it can't hurt the town." I don't see how this is contribution at all. However, the one time he has a chance to voice a real opinion on something or at least make sure the town thinks about a potentially material issue, he backs off right away.
In the next part, he discusses his posting from another game and mentions that he doesn't see a difference at all. I see a big one. Read the post again:
On April 21 2012 12:01 PaqMan wrote: But I do agree with you VE. Giving scum any more info puts them in an even greater advantage over us. A mass vig claim would be the same as handing them a hit list. some of gonzaw's points however are pretty valid (no late-game chaos with vig claiming before lynch, etc etc).
Either way, I can't see a vig following either one of y'alls policies. He claims, town lynches him and nothing is gained. He claims, chance of mafia taking him out or keeps him alive, either way there's chaos.
I suggest that our vigilante (if we have one) doesn't claim at all. If he's about to be lynched then he needs to defend himself as a normal townie because claiming vig is going to create a shitstorm for us, which gives scum the upper hand. If he's going to use his kp one someone, he doesn't need to claim before or after the kill. It's going to create too much confusion and WIFOM and finger-pointing and shit.
So I think that vigilantes should not make any claims this game.
Notice the tone he takes in this post: it's assertive. It's helpful. He's standing by an unconventional idea. Once again, compare that to his attempt to join the discussion when we were talking about the CPR/Jailkeeper plan - he is the exact opposite! The major difference is he didn't give us his opinion on the best course of action if the scenario he mentioned (people not following the plan) happened.
Finally, Sloosh makes an excellent point about his defiant tone while trying to turn his defense into an accusation of me. Where did that come from? Why wasn't he posting like that earlier? Because he's grumpy that he got shoved into the spotlight while trying to blend in. And because he got caught on day 1 in his first game with an Anti-Town role (unless I'm mistaken, and not commenting about the game going on, of course). He's Anti-Town.
|
On May 18 2012 06:15 Zephirdd wrote: I don't get it Qatol. Most of what I interpreted from your case is that PaqMan is going with common opinions rather than uncommon ones. Of course he'd be abrasive and assertive when he has an opinion different from town; he needs to convince town. On a game where his opinion is shared with most people, what use is there for him to be abrasive about it? That was why I mentioned his discussion of the situation in which people don't follow the plan. He was concerned about it but was anything but assertive.
On May 18 2012 06:40 Toadesstern wrote: Qatol what's your opinion on Sandro? Anyone else willing to answer that one is welcome to answer that one as well.
I still think he is by far the most scummy player we have right now but the decunduo flip really doesn't fit that read. Not that I think a Sandro + decunduo mafia team should be considered imba (at all) but it doesn't really fit.
Qatol was very open when disagreeing with Sandroba before and while drafting and told us exactly where Sandroba was wrong in his (and my) opinion, yet he never said Sandroba is scummy. Now look at what Decunduo did: He posted no walls of text like Sandro did. He basicly agreed with it in a very useless fashion but he disagreed with Sandroba. He as well never said Sandroba is looking weird for it, too. However, given the flip don't you think he usually would have done it?
Decunduo was mafia. He had all the reasons to say Sandroba looks weird after how I and ESPECIALLY after how Qatol dismanteled Sandroba in a way everyone agreed. What Qatol did was very clear, he explained his thoughts and why what Sandroba said is wrong and both know that Sandroba is a monster as town. So why didn't Decundo drop the m-word? Again, he had all the reasons to just say he thinks Sandroba looks weird but didn't,
I think Sandroba is the best lynch for today and we need to get people like blue in here, which is the reason I voted him but I should have done so earlier and clearly a pressure vote at this point of time is not going to help anymore so I'm taking it off blue. If blue isn't going to contribute soon I'd say he's still a decent Plan-B but Sandro is the by far best shot we have today imo if it weren't for the dayvig that's confusing me SO HARD.... Sandroba is on my "look at later if he's still alive" list. Basically, he hasn't said anything that stood out to me as being blatantly scummy, but he also hasn't done enough to establish himself as innocent to me. I think he's his experience will make him a decently high priority target for either the scum or the SK (or both). I didn't like that he was emphasizing an early godfather pick, just like deconduo. That being said, his claim that he was taking the mason role made him a lower priority to me because it seems like a pretty pro-town selection which can be verified easily enough if we start a serious discussion of lynching sandroba.
On May 18 2012 07:29 Palmar wrote: I'm thinking we should murder Qatol. Need to read a bit more before I make up my mind. I will post a few more things tomorrow.
Sandroba, how do you feel about that? I'd like to hear your reasoning on that one. It would be the most useful/constructive post you've made all game by far.
|
On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote: I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first.
Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal?
Because we don't know who between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel has the Janitor. I am more confident about my read on PaqMan than I am of the chances we find the scum member between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel, especially on day 1. I don't believe the mafia will allow the correct player to get enough momentum in a lynch situation for us to be successful. On the other hand, I don't believe the mafia can divert the town's attention if we focus on PaqMan because the only alternatives being seriously discussed right now are this mess of potential Janitor players and Sandroba, whom I've already discussed.
|
On May 18 2012 10:51 Snarfs wrote: One of risk.nuke, marv, and Sentinel is lying in a manner that is hurting town.
This means that one of them is scum. That is a 1/3 chance, much better than any hunches you might have on PaqMan or sandroba or whoever else.
To address some points:
risk.nuke has voted Sentinel and Sentinel has voted risk.nuke; therefore, it is very unlikely that one of them is lying to draw fire from scum if they have actually chosen Janitor.
Sentinel has claimed vanilla town; therefore, is probably the safest lynch of the three if we want to avoid accidentally lynching a blue.
@Toad: We are not lynching blind into 3 targets. Read the thread. Read their filters. Make an educated decision. Don't lynch blind.
My scum rank for the three are: 1. Sentinel 2. risk.nuke 3. marvellosity
Any discussion of targets other than these 3 will only help cause confusion amongst the town and WILL ONLY BENEFIT SCUM. Qatol, I do understand the conviction to lynch a scum you think you've got pegged, but other people (myself included) just don't see the case as that strong. Here we have a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. Those are great odds. Help us out with some analysis of these 3 people rather than tunneling on PaqMan.
To conclude: People should talk about Sentinel, risk.nuke and marvellosity because there is a 1/3 random chance that one of them is scum. Talking about other targets will only help mafia because it spreads confusion among a town which must be focused to win the game. Yes I agree. While I still think that PaqMan is our best lynch target, it's clear that he won't be getting lynched this cycle. Any further pushing I do on the subject will just further splinter the town and make a no lynch/mislynch more likely. I'll have to look at filters and histories more carefully for risk.nuke, marvellosity, and Sentinel before I make a final decision, but I'll make a few observations: 1. Unless we lynch Sentinel, we don't even know for sure that the Janitor role is among the first 3 players at all. For all we know, the first 2 players took something else and Sentinel is mafia and just lying. Sentinel is also, like Snarfs mentioned, the one of the three who is claiming not to have a role. If we assume 2 townies and 1 scum (if there were 2 scum, I can't imagine that they wouldn't just have one member claim the role to avoid giving the town incredible odds of destroying their team), that means that at least 1 of the townies has a role which is probably pretty good considering where they're picking.
2. I could definitely see risk.nuke acting like this as a townie. Notice that he wanted to post his numbers so nobody else would pick them before the game even started and posted them immediately when the game did start. This shows that he's impulsive and rather selfish in his actions. He's also the only one of the three who said he wouldn't be picking Janitor or CPR before the drafting phase ended.
I'll do a more in depth analysis tomorrow, but for now, logic say vote Sentinel, so I'll preliminarily vote for him. ##Unvote: PaqMan ##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel
|
As a starter, before I go in depth about anyone, I think you guys should re-read how the Janitor role works exactly.
On May 06 2012 03:06 GMarshal wrote: Janitor - Busy always cleaning up after other people's mess. You love your job so much though that you'll even clean up dead bodies. During the Night you may PM me that you want to clean up all the dead bodies in Town. No player's role or alignment will be revealed upon death for that upcoming Day. You can only use this ability once.
1. The Janitor cannot be used on the day 1 lynch. He triggers his abilities at night. There hasn't been a night yet, so there has been no opportunity for him to trigger his ability. 2. I'm relatively certain that the Janitor's abilities don't even apply to lynch results. He cleans up bodies "for the day." That seems to imply that his powers work on day posts (which post the results of night actions), rather than night posts (which post results of the lynch).
Does the Janitor's ability affect any posts other than the day post immediately following the Janitor's PM?
|
On May 19 2012 03:26 sandroba wrote: That was uber retardness picking mason at that spot, but oh well. There is another explanation I had not considered, which is sentinel is traitor. Kinda makes sense ensuring we would go in a wild chase after the other 2 players. I'd like risk to claim before I decide whom to vote. Risk doesn't need to claim, at least not yet. Zelblade needs to claim whether mason was the role he tried to select. If it wasn't, then we know risk selected the role zelblade tried to grab or sentinel is lying about whiffing on traitor, or both.
|
On May 19 2012 03:50 Misder wrote:Sigh, we did not need more people to claim green. Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 03:18 risk.nuke wrote: There is also a possibility that Marv is scum and another scum is the real mason. Not really, because that would be way too risky for scum. Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 03:33 Qatol wrote:On May 19 2012 03:26 sandroba wrote: That was uber retardness picking mason at that spot, but oh well. There is another explanation I had not considered, which is sentinel is traitor. Kinda makes sense ensuring we would go in a wild chase after the other 2 players. I'd like risk to claim before I decide whom to vote. Risk doesn't need to claim, at least not yet. Zelblade needs to claim whether mason was the role he tried to select. If it wasn't, then we know risk selected the role zelblade tried to grab or sentinel is lying about whiffing on traitor, or both. When did Sentinel say he tried to get traitor? I do agree that zelblade should confirm first before risk roleclaims. Sorry, I meant Janitor.
|
On May 19 2012 05:01 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 04:14 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: How about claiming the fucking Janitor? I wouldn't put two people under fire, I'd just sweep it under the rug and still play a VT game without consequence. Risk and marv already said neither one chose Janitor, are they going to suddenly claim they have it after I made my claim? That would make them look worse than they do now.
You claimed before risk.nuke did. And you did it in such a way that it left you open to either claiming not to have tried to get Janitor or to have tried and failed to get Janitor. Why would risk.nuke come in and see that both you and marv have claimed not to have gotten Janitor, then claim not to be the Janitor if he was scum? The only way that makes sense is if he is really scum and did not choose Janitor - a scenario which doesn't work based on yours and marv's claims. Your defense defends him more than yourself because of the order of claims. If he chose Janitor, he could "just sweep it under the rug and still play a VT game without consequence."
Time stamps: Actually, risk claimed the first of the 3.
On May 17 2012 01:18 risk.nuke wrote: I'm Town. I still don't understand your reasoning to why you think I would pick traitor. You're just wifoming your own head dizzy. I'm not going to pick janitor. I'm not just saying I'm not going to pick janitor, I'm really not goin to pick janitor what are you going to do about that toad? If he takes Janitor after a post like this and claims it, the town probably policy lynches him.
It makes more sense for Sentinel to be mafia or traitor. Look what his claim has forced us to do. We're stuck in a situation in which we are lynching one of the top 3 living picks. If we mislynch, we probably wind up spending the next lynch arguing over the same people. And we still don't even know for sure that the Janitor role is even among these 3 players!
|
On May 19 2012 05:52 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2012 05:21 Qatol wrote: It makes more sense for Sentinel to be mafia or traitor. Look what his claim has forced us to do. We're stuck in a situation in which we are lynching one of the top 3 living picks. If we mislynch, we probably wind up spending the next lynch arguing over the same people. And we still don't even know for sure that the Janitor role is even among these 3 players! I thought it might be Sentinel but my gut is saying risk atm. Look what his claim has forced us to do? Look what risk did by just not choosing janitor in #2 spot. That's worse. Hypocritical of me I know. I realize that what risk did was very arrogant and selfish, and obviously quite damaging to the town. That being said, I don't think he is the right lynch and I hope you can take a step back and come to the same conclusion.
|
On May 19 2012 10:56 zelblade wrote: Why did people assume I would pick janitor when there was a plan for pretty much 2-4 take janitor -_-
Anyway I still think sentinel is town since I just cant wrap my head around a mafia being so dumb. Traitor seems like a plausible explanation, except that the fact that there is a JOAT in 2-4 makes it make no sense.
Bleh lynch is locked anyway. So you believe that marvellosity AND risk.nuke are lying about their role selections? If Sentinel is town and you are town, then the other 2 roles taken were JOAT and Janitor. Sentinel as anti-town and risk.nuke taking JOAT makes a lot more sense.
|
On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote: This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position. There is one way I can think of having one of those 3 having Janitor: it is possible that marvellosity is lying mafia and a scumbuddy (could only be mafia because a townie would have counterclaimed) after him but before toadesstern took mason.
|
On May 19 2012 12:07 Misder wrote: But that means risk.nuke is lying about having vigilante and has JOAT. Good point. You're right. If there's a janitor, it has to be outside of those picks unless we have multiple liars.
|
On May 19 2012 12:10 Misder wrote: Oh, my logic is assuming that only one of them is lying. If two of them are lying, then anyone could be anything (well, I haven't done the deductive reasoning, but I would assume so). Multiple liars also has to consider the chances that toadesstern and/or zelblade could be lying as well, so not all roles mentioned are necessarily part of the equation.
|
|
|
|