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@ BlueyD
Thanks for providing some input on my suggestion, still want to hear from others as well. Of the lurkers I reckon either Solohan50 or TheRavensName would be the ones I am most concerned with, and I could quite possibly form a case against both that I would be happy enough to present, but at this stage I am not sure how wise it would be to post cases for multiple individuals, we should probably try come to a unified conclusion.
Currently I do still have Lazermonkey as my strongest scum read, so I would be more than happy to post my case on him and also push the lynch in that direction. But at this stage i feel we really need to motivate the lurkers to contribute. Lynching one provided the case is solid I think would accomplish this fairly well.
On Lorant
Based on Day 1, I was happy to read him as leaning town, but some of his more recent posts are starting to push me away from that direction. One of the issues is the point you raised, he pushes everyone to post some analysis prior to daybreak here.
On April 18 2012 05:29 Lorant wrote: Post what you'd like others to hear in case you die. Says he will go off and prepare his statement.
On April 18 2012 06:48 Lorant wrote: A little disturbance in eloquence there but it's alright, now I'll leave you talking to yourself while I'm preparing for my statement. Then returns at the deadline to post a playlist. So he was there and I personally haven't looked at the playlist, but I imagine it would have taken a similar amount of time to make as posting some brief thoughts on his reads. To have such dis-interest in providing anything prior to the deadline, I can't help but get the impression he either knew he was safe, or simply doesn't care about the town. Either of those outcomes is a problem.
If he posted that for any other reason I would really love to hear it.
'The Council'
Several people have mentioned their dis-approval of this idea, I personally am not terribly keen on the idea either. It gives me the impression of a stalling tactic a way to waste time and discussion, and to that extent I think it has succeeded.
In amongst the rubbish, he does raise some points which I find reasonable; - Establishing order as he puts it, to me means a good atmosphere. Yeah sure, that's fine. - The idea of a council as far as a group of people contributing to the construction and refinement of a case on a possible lynch target, that is also fine. - Arbitrarily assigning players onto said council? That's where it starts to get a bit stupid again.
@ BlueyD, about Nova_Terra
I notice you had a town read on Nova early in the game, you stated as much and provided some defense for him when he was a lynch target.
I myself am starting to lean towards Nova_Terra being more town than Mafia. I just want to know, has your opinion changed? I have in my notes that you believe one of either @Lazer or @Nova is mafia but not both.
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@ Pure-SC2
I agree it was good to see Solohan's thoughts, but he is basically coming in, posting enough to avoid suspicion and appear he is contributing then disappearing into the shadows again. Just like many of the other lurkers. This is the main problem I have with them.
I really do believe that there is at least one, possibly two mafia just hiding amongst the lurkers. Surely after the volume of posts in the thread there should be more than information to make a case on anyone (except Macheji who has posted so little he needs to be pressured), whether that case be town or mafia. Before the end of the day I want to see these people contributing. If you are town there is zero reason to not contribute something, it doesn't matter if you get the wrong read, it's your logic and reasoning that we want.
I agree that TheRavensName is probably the most suspicious, but that is also because he has posted more than most of the other lurkers. That is precisely the reason they are lurking. They don't want to incriminate themselves. At some point we are going to have to lynch into the lurkers. But I do appreciate the fact that you think we need a solid case before we do so, I completely understand and think the same.
As stated earlier, I still think Lazermonkey is my favourite lynch target. Would like to see something from the other people too.
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EBWOP:
2nd Para should be 'more than enough information to make a case'
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@ Macheji
You say you suspect Nova_Terra and Lazermonkey.
Can you please provide a case for both or either one of them?
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@ Nova
You still around? If so you around for much longer, or you about to head out?
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I am still keen to solve this lurker problem we are having currently which I mentioned here. As such I present;
MY CASE ON MACHEJI
Macheji’s Filter – Current Game
Comparison to his only prior TL Mafia Game (‘Meta’ analysis)
Here is the filter from Macheji’s other previous Mafia game on Team Liquid, Bastard Mafia.
Now given that we are all fairly new and still learning I do not really want to put too much stock into ‘meta’ analysis based on only one past game, but from just having a quick glance at the two I can notice a distinct difference between the two.
Currently in this game Macheji is not really contributing all that much information at all and lurking fairly extensively, however in Bastard Mafia in which his role was a Bodyguard, you can see his is posting more in terms of content in each post. And looking at the timestamps you can see that both games have spanned a similar length of time.
Now onto the more relevant performance in this game
In the early portion of the game it is very challenging to present any real read on Macheji simply because his lack of activity prevents any such analysis from occurring. Upon his return he provides a reason for his absence, don’t have a problem with that.
He states he doesn’t want to post during the night for fear of being killed here; On April 17 2012 09:46 Macheji wrote: Fine, i'll post my reasons for the vote. Didn't really want to because the night is comming and the last time i accused somebody at the start of the night i got killed.(...) He contributes his preliminary thoughts anyway, this is his first post of any real substance. He lays his suspicions towards Nova_Terra, which at that point in time was probably the easiest target, I don’t think this means too much at this point in the game as his opinions seemed to support his train of thought. He then declares 72hrs prior to the next lynch; On April 17 2012 09:46 Macheji wrote: Now, that was the reasoning behind my vote. But now that i've read your case-post i am alot more sure of my vote. If i don't die tonight, i am voting for him again. Clearly he has a scum read on @Nova_Terra, but being willing to tunnel Nova_Terra before the day even breaks is a bit of a red flag to me. It’s good that he seems to be convinced of his read, but don’t just blindly tunnel someone, provide us with some more information as to why you are making this decision.
A minor grievance, but I do not like this statement either; On April 18 2012 20:59 Macheji wrote: Oh man, 9 pages in and i have a full paper of notes. Most of them on Nova_Terra and Lazermonkey. I saw an obvious connection between the two of them. Share briefly with Pure-Sc2 , but tbh i find Pure-SC2 very ''town'' atm , not sure what that was about ( ganging on solohan w/o any evidence ) . I have to decide if i should make a list with everybody or just post my scum conclusion and post a case vs 1,2 people. What do you guys prefer ? If you are town, surely you don’t need to be told what to contribute to discussion, everything is all laid out in the thread. Post any thoughts and analysis that you believe will assist the town in winning the game. The statement gives me an impression of ‘I want to do enough to be ok’.
Macheji’s big post about his reads
On April 18 2012 22:43 Macheji wrote:I'm dizzy after the first 10 pages so i'll stop here for the moment. I may come back later today to finish and make a new post. So far. + = town - = mafia Daymor (+/--)-> In the start he favored both no-lynching / Lynching me. At the moment , lynching me gave no information. So he was ''divided'' between getting no info from a no-lynch to lynching the guy whos death would bring the less info(-). Also, from what i've seen, i've got the impresion he is a very guilable, easily to be impressed person that changes mind-stances often(+/-). Lorant ( +/--- )-> Gave a good very good town advice in the start ( the journal thing ) +. Proved to be a smurf of fourface that ''likes to do crazy things so town does not think he is mafia'' -> Creates this thing called The Coucil of Four ( crazy thing -- )to rise against Nova_Terra but dosn't really accuse him of anything, this seems a bit dubious , like a false conflict ( - ) Crossfire ( ++ )-> I know now he's dead, bear with me ( did not know the name of the guy that got killed last night when i made this so that i don't get subjective)... Made a post regarding the fact that people , especially blues will have no info if there is a no-lynch , this was a giveaway for me ( ++ ) NovaTerra (++/--------)> oh man, oh man... .... Ok here we go. Accuses Solohan of appology post -> makes appology post moments later ( --- ). Made alot of accusations w/o arguments(-)(ex vs solohan, therapist ). Spamming, atleast 6 posts in the first 7 pages saying the same thing(-). From page 8, 18:25, when he is beeing accused he start to seem very troubled, he makes post-after-post, very twitchy. He goes crazy about him beeing the most active person. He gets even more crazy when someone mentions him beeing in the same team with Lazer.At first it seemed like an ok reaction, the guy was mad because he was wrongfully accused, but why get even more stirred up when beeing named a teammate of Lazer, that's something kinda specific to be generally mad against. Also, when Oneplus attack him he tells him he is digging his own grave, he was so sure about it, like he had some power the rest of us do not. Also when Oneplus attacks him in one post he says he is not impressed... he's not impressed of what ? When someone innocent is beeing accused of something, does it ever occure to him to say that he is not impressed with the case against him ? I am acc thinking of those real-life gangsters or white-collar criminals that laugh on the tv when they are beeing accused. ( -- ) . In another post he is accusing bandwaggoning when people started voting for him, but he had no problem with people bandwaggoning when there were like 4 voting me for beeing inactive or for 4 more to vote for oneplus when he got killed. ( - ) . He is by far the most frequent poster ( ++ ), but his posts lack any real information ( already rated this ) . Also it's clear in his mind that mafias are people that generaly don't want attention, so he may meta this and try to hide the poop in plain sight. He even says at a point that '' you do not vote for an active thought player for info'' when someone suggested his lynch in order to get information. Lazermonkey ( ---- ) > Agrees with Nova_Terra on solahan beeing scummy even tho there were 0 arguments Why ? ( - ) Calls therapist scum again w/o evidence Votes for me -> Side with N_T vs oneplus -> is accused on multiple front of mafiateam with N_T-> says he is conviced oneplus is town -> Votes N_T without revealing to much -> In the end votes oneplus ( --- ) Therapist ++ > I only see i noted that he gave me the impression that he really does not want a misslynch ( ++ ) TheRavensname ( +/- ) > a bit wierd that at page 6 he accuses Nova_Terra of beeing to lynch happy ( +/-). 1 hour later he votes me and Nova_Terra + Lazermonkey ( the ''double'' at that point) soon fallow. Pure-SC2 ( +++/-- ) At a moment he accused Solahan for beeing a scum, fallowing N_T and LM, when there were no arguments or evidence. THe only thing i noticed about Solahan until that post was that he was a bot noobish at this game. Later on he goes after oneplus because he said N_T and LM are scummy without any arguments/evidence. ( -- ) But, to be honest Pure-SC2 has made alot of valuable posts since then. I found them clear, argumented, transparent and it seemed to me like he added alot to the game ( +++ ) . Still the mark of doubt remains. In this post I find a few things that concern me when I read through, apart from the inconsistency in terms of how he is dishing out his reads, the main one I note is Therapist, who he gives a town/leaning town read to because he stated he didn’t want to mislynch. Personally I don’t think this statement is any kind of tell. Stating you don’t want to mislynch isn’t difficult and cannot be proven false either, it’s a no risk statement in my opinion.
His two strongest scum reads are Lazermonkey and Nova_Terra, while not terribly surprising as both have copped their fair amount of suspicion. It almost seems like the easy way out to me, there has been a substantial amount posted in regards to why both are found to be suspicious.
As such the whole post really seems like more of a summary of the current position rather than anything that is distinctly his, with the exception of a few parts in his review of Nova_Terra.
Why omit BlueyD and Solohan50 from the analysis?
I am not sure whether this means anything or not, I wouldn’t mind some opinions on this matter. But it certainly does seem a bit strange to me, he posts a few notes on every player except these two and oneplus who was the victim of the first lynch.
Alarm Bells
On April 18 2012 22:43 Macheji wrote: NovaTerra (++/--------)> (...)He goes crazy about him beeing the most active person. He gets even more crazy when someone mentions him beeing in the same team with Lazer.At first it seemed like an ok reaction, the guy was mad because he was wrongfully accused, (...) On April 18 2012 22:43 Macheji wrote: NovaTerra (++/--------)> (...) Also when Oneplus attacks him in one post he says he is not impressed... he's not impressed of what ? When someone innocent is beeing accused of something, does it ever occure to him to say that he is not impressed with the case against him ? (...) So in his case against Nova_Terra, not once but twice does he briefly mention Nova_Terra’s innocence or that fact he is being wrongfully accused. The only people who know of Nova_Terra’s innocence are Mafia & Nova_Terra. It could possibly mean nothing, but the fact that he is essentially calling his strongest scum read ‘innocent’ is quite alarming.
While I appreciate that he has stepped up and provided with some of his thoughts, most are in a heavily summarised manner and I do not feel they add too much insight except maybe his post on Nova_Terra.
Summary
I admit, this was a fairly hard case to build due largely to not having much content with which to work.I would be happy to lynch Macheji based off this information as between not contributing and the alarm bells in regards to his case against Nova_Terra I feel comfortable enough sticking with it.
Please express your thoughts on this case, I know it may be a little thin
In the meantime
##Vote: Macheji
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@ Macheji - I am glad to see you are posting, that is promising. I hope you continue to post when you have things that are worth contributing.
For clarification purposes yes I did vote for oneplus on the day one lynch, my reasons are included in that huge post in regards to lynch analysis, mainly in the @Nova_Terra section if you actually read it. But to summarise, I jumped on shortly before the deadline reviewed the thread and noticed Nova_Terra had made a significant number of posts and i did not have the time to review and analyse everything. In comparison oneplus did not make nearly as many posts, so I decided to take my vote off Nova_Terra as I value someone who is actively contributing posts as that helps analysis etc significantly more than someone who doesn't provide much.
@Pure-SC2 - I agree the case is a bit of a stretch, to the extent that it encouraged Macheji to post I am happy. Macheji is not my strongest scum read, nor do I believe the case was strong enough to lead a lynch, so I do plan on ending the day with my vote on someone else.
I think at least a couple hours before the lynch we should try to lock in a solid lynch target. Lazermonkey has been the person I have had the strongest scum read on for the last couple of days. I haven't really had the chance to look at his most recent post, but he is probably the candidate that I would most like to lynch.
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Ok, I mentioned earlier that I don't intend to have my vote end the day on Macheji, and that is still my plan. I like that he has been contributing and I can certainly see a decent amount of effort going into his posts.
@Lorant - In regards to your question about sparing Nova_Terra from the lynch and my position after the fact. I personally did not have a solid read on oneplus at the time, but looking back on it the fact that he was willing to stick his neck out is probably something I should have picked up on.
I do think that Nova did a decent job of defending himself, the one thing I got from it is he is at least invested in the game, I saw less of that from oneplus.
Your case on Pure-SC2
Similar to BlueyD's perspective I don't really find your case terribly convincing, there are a few issues I have with your case and your more recent play, I don't intend to turn it into a case at the moment, but I will list a few of the bigger things that I find concerning;
+ Show Spoiler +On April 16 2012 21:16 Lorant wrote:@Pure-SC2 in response to your case on Nova. We'll have to see what his suspicion of solohan is, but I'd still like Crossfire to answer the same question .. preferably before Nova. If crossfire has an argument to offer Nova will just have to find another one. ..noted, yes that was bad. It pains me to say this but Nova has outlasted his use to town already. He did good with the voting (although that was symbolic, not sure if it had any palpable effect) and he has shown us an anti-example of how a leader should not act. I doubt we can expect him to make substance-packed, easy to follow cases but I would love to be positively surprised. On April 19 2012 06:21 Lorant wrote:My gut feeling basically is that I'm scared. I'm pretty scared that Pure-SC2 is playing good scum while Nova is bad scum. If so, they tried to control the thread from the very beginning and establish Nova as leader and it would've worked because Nova could've posted Pure's observation/analysis making him look capable. Pure's case on Nova was trivial and he would've switched his vote but oneplus already had 6 votes and Nova only 4. After Raven switched it would've been way to scummy for Pure to switch too. Now what's happening is that Pure is the capable one and Nova might be covering his back like a dog, grunting at everyone who even considers his strongest town read scummy. I don't know which is worse (hard to counter), this or a leader Nova with Pure's posting. So this is basically what I'm afraid of. Nothing more, nothing less. Irrational .. maybe Oh and talking about Nova bulldogging for Pure. Check out how he's on my ass after I say Pure is scummy. He doesn't even care why he just wants to take me apart with the council stuff and whatnot.
1) Initially, I get the impression that you are at least somewhat agreeable to Pure's case, you don't really ever state you thought it was good or anything. But you state that Nova_Terra 'has outlived his usefulness' as you put it, so a similar opinion is certainly there.
Between the two posts, I think it's fairly clear you haven't changed your position in regards to Nova_Terra, but you have in regards to your perception of Pure's case, it went from a more neutral stance to being 'trivial'. Nowhere in that first post in response to Pure's case could I find a solid stance on it either way. So I say neutral because you have come to the same conclusion.
2) In reference to your case against Pure-SC2, this part I don't think contributes anything towards your argument or provide a solid reason why he should be lynched;
On April 19 2012 06:21 Lorant wrote: My gut feeling basically is that I'm scared. I'm pretty scared that Pure-SC2 is playing good scum while Nova is bad scum. If so, they tried to control the thread from the very beginning and establish Nova as leader and it would've worked because Nova could've posted Pure's observation/analysis making him look capable. Pure's case on Nova was trivial and he would've switched his vote but oneplus already had 6 votes and Nova only 4. After Raven switched it would've been way to scummy for Pure to switch too. Now what's happening is that Pure is the capable one and Nova might be covering his back like a dog, grunting at everyone who even considers his strongest town read scummy. I don't know which is worse (hard to counter), this or a leader Nova with Pure's posting. So this is basically what I'm afraid of. Nothing more, nothing less. Irrational .. maybe
This section starts by stating your gut feeling, and that you are scared. Then to support this statement instead of really introducing anything I would consider tangible you introduce a big WIFOM and speculation basically stating 'if this, then that' etc.
Your perspective is certainly vastly different to mine, but I have a hard time taking that seriously when you support the argument with nothing tangible other than speculation and what essentially amounts to fear-mongering.
As for today's vote
I still have a town read on Pure, and Lorant's case doesn't really change that perspective at all. My strongest scum read is still Lazermonkey. His more recent posts I feel have been better, but I still trust my earlier opinions on him from this post.
So I am going to put my vote on Lazermonkey.
##Unvote:Macheji ##Vote:Lazermonkey
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EBWOP
Think I screwed up the spacing on my voting
##Unvote: Macheji ##Vote: Lazermonkey
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So I can't find a vote by TheRavensName.
Can we get a final vote tally at some point from the mods? Did he PM a vote or is he getting a warning/modkill for not voting?
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EBWOP
Should probably green the question.
Can we get a final vote tally from the Mods? What happened with TheRavensName's vote?
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If TheRavensName gets modkilled I figure town lose.
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Although I got some bad vibes from some of the stuff you posted. I think you are a townie. And considering tonight we will already be down to 5-3 and Lynch or Lose (LYLO).
You getting modkilled will end the game now, if my read is right.
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Since you are around, what would you have done with your vote anyway? And who do you think is the scum team?
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Interesting, do you have a case built against him or something? Or just not a fan of the ones that got posted against Pure and Lazer.
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Yeah I think you make sense aye. For now I would probably tag my scum team as Lorant and two of these three Nova, Solohan, Therapist. Probably side more towards Nova and maybe Solohan.
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Yeah, a few people have certainly pointed a few things out here and there about finding Lorant confusing. I can't argue with that, I thought his case against Pure was lacking in a few areas.
You reasonably up to date with the thread?
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Well, here's to hoping you don't get modkilled, your vote couldn't have changed the outcome of the vote anyway. If you had voted for Pure-SC2, Lazer would still have been lynched as he was the first to reach 4.
So there is a decent chance you just get a warning, so I might cya round later in the game.
For now I am going to go have my lunch, getting hungry.
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@Pure-SC2 - Your question regarding why I posted my whole google doc is fairly easy to answer. Initially I was under the impression that the deadline would be 9am my time. As such I would be at work and wasn't sure if I would be able to get all my thoughts together in a clear concise manner.
So I was tossing up between posting my google doc or trying to summarise everything within 30mins. So I decided to post my link before I went to bed. Then when the deadline got extended, well yeah. I probably didn't need to post the whole doc because I could have summarised it.
But yeah in all honesty I am scratching my head as to what to do now. Mislynch and we pretty much lose.
Anyway here are some quick thoughts, obviously I have a town read on Pure-SC2, so with the result of the lynch as it stands, the two candidates in my mind are two townies. So Mafia have no need to be worried at all. So therefore similar to you I think 1 may be on Lazermonkey because a lot of people thought he has scummy tendencies, so it would be easy to blend in. Then the rest would be scattered, and then from there you can't really do too much more.
It's not exactly credible in the first place anyway, since it's purely speculation and WIFOM. But those are my thoughts anyway. It seems Newbie Town's always have issues anyway. I was reading up on the game prior to this one, The VIII one, I think it was Mattchew who was a coach said a lot of newbie town fall into the confirmation bias trap. They have a read, stick to it just to see if they are right or not. I thought it was an interesting bit of insight and most certainly is true of me.
I had a scum read on Lazer and wanted to see his flip, and when I did my heart just sank, just sat there shaking my head. It's frustrating, because I did re-read his filter just 1hr or so before the lynch and the thinks I picked up early on didn't concern me as much any more and I started to get a slight impression he may be town. But my options where lynch him who I at least had suspicions against or lynch you who I am about the only read I am convinced of.
Anyway that's enough for a late night rambling. Time for bed.
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[b]@Pure-SC@]/b] - If there is anything more you want me to talk about I can hang around for a bit if you want.
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