Newbie Mini Mafia VIII - Page 3
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 15 2012 09:01 Xatalos wrote: I have to mention this post. I'm a bit confused about what you're trying to say here, but I take it yomi is your best Mafia read... Yet you're willing to follow Acrofales unquestioningly and abandon both yomi and Willz for today? I'm not sure what to make of this, but at least it isn't a good or reasonable play by you. I'm going to sleep pretty soon, so good night and think seriously about this post! You obviously didn't read my post in the night where I made it fairly obvious Dittert was my #1 scum read at the moment (it's here if you would like to). So no yomi isn't my best mafia read, Dittert is. I'm also not following Acrofales unquestioningly, I seconded his vote because he beat me to posting. I was going to vote for Dittert anyway at the begining of the Day. I'm not sure whether you are intentionally misreading stuff now. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 15 2012 08:29 willz22912 wrote: I really have no idea what the hell Dittert is doing. Should we really ditch all D2 discussion and let this vote go through? If he's going to be modkilled/replaced we may as well look at someone else or at least save him from another day. If we mis-lynch him today and Mafia kill another town again N2 we're at 5-3 D3, going to be hard to win at that point. We definitely shouldn't ditch the discussion and if a better candidate comes up we should lynch them. However, I for one am not going to let someone martyr themselves as an easy out. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 16 2012 01:16 willz22912 wrote: Can you explain the underlined part here a little better? Are you saying you will or will not let Dittert martyr himself? I have no idea what Dittert's plan is for doing this as town considering if we mis-lynch again and lose another town during the night it's going to be 5-3 D3, which is pretty much mylo for town. My thoughts are basically that Dittert is my #1 scum read at the moment, yomi is #2 and you and Xatalos are tied for #3 at this point. If someone makes a case that replaces Dittert as my #1 of course I will change my vote. What I mean my not letting him martyr himself as an easy way out is that his martyring hasn't dropped my suspicion of him at all. If he had done what you had done and actually posted stuff that was useful to the town I would be more inclined to think he was town. The fact he basically said I'm off you guys are on your own and even suggested bringing the day 2 deadline forward makes me think he wants as little discussion going on as possible which seems exceptionally scummy to me. I honestly think he is scum who knows he is dead and is allowing his team to bus him to stop town getting any useful disscusion going day 2. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
[QUOTE]On April 16 2012 01:42 Acrofales wrote: Dittert/willz is a really really unlikely bus pair like I described above. Dittert/yomi is only slightly more likely, because I feel like they're pretty new players even if they're scum and I don't think really new players would have the balls to bus that hard. yomi/willz is still an unlikely bus, seeing as each of them voted for each other to save himself, but it's at least thinkable for me. yomi/Xatalos is a pair which I wouldn't describe as that unlikely, because if Xatalos is scum, the easy way for him to get some credibility is to accuse his really scummily behaving team member. I have the feeling a scum bus could naturally evolve from that.[/QUOTE] I agree with the analysis of these pairings. the yomi/Xatalos makes the most sense if we assume Xatalos busses yomi seeing his scummy like play day 1. However I think the most obvious pairing to me is Dittert/Xatalos. When yomi posted his case against Dittert, Xatalos stepped in to defend him. Yomi's case wasn't the best so it was fairly easy for Xatalos to defend Dittert without being too suspicious. Night 1 all his blue talk makes me think he seems scummy but that has been talked to already. He also keeps tunnelling on yomi who is still looking very weak and it strikes me this could be an easy mis-lynch to go for. However at the start of Day 2 everyone votes for Dittert and Xatalos starts seeing his team-mate is probably going to get lynched and slowly comes off tunnelling yomi, while explaining he is broadening his scum hunting. Finally he joins what seems like an inevitable bandwaggon on Dittert allowing him to get some cheap town cred when Dittert flips. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
I don't think two people not attacking each other means they are both scum. Hiro defending Dittert is interesting, but you have to remember it was at a time when everyone but you had Dittert pegged as newb town so I'm not as confidident that it is suspicious behaviour. As for Dittert jumping on you when you linked the two of them I don't think both those things are linked. He came with good arguments as to why you seemed scummy and it doesn't strike me as him defending Hiro. Again this was early on in Day 1 and people were throwing accusations around a lot. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
##FoS: Xatalos | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 16 2012 07:04 HiroPro wrote: This post is a sham. Xatalos offers absolutely no explanation for the discrepancy between him making a case on ArcticFox based on talking about blues and then trying to direct and control blue actions himself at night (other than some bs about oh well you know it wasn't the best or most useful thing i could have done. but you know it was good it was good i tell you). He makes a vote switch from yomi to Dittert because he's scared that there's an actual case on him, so he needs to focus attention on an easy target to lynch (Notice how he doesn't base his vote switch on actual reads or reasoning; it's just bs about how "oh this will probably gives us better info"). And now a guy who was acting so cocky and confident early on is like "oh yeah i made mistakes, my credibility dropped, but still guys you gotta trust me just because). Xatalos is mafia. Do not let him escape. I'm starting to be very convinced of Xatalos being scum. I'd say he and Dittert are about equal scum reads now in my opinion. However I am not going to change my vote at the moment because I still think there is a high chance Dittert is scum and I will wait until he gets back and responds (I will probably be asleep when he does but we shall see in the morning). | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 16 2012 07:16 yomi wrote: havent read the whole thing yet but 3/6 of the players are mafia according to you as you said so starting % should be 50% I think the percentages are designed to add up to 100%. It would make more sense to add up to 300% seeing as there are 3 scum. I'd just times all the values by 3. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
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imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
First we get a nice long post from Dittert: I couldn't understand Willz's motive for admitting to the merits of Acro's case, especially after everyone seemed to agree that my case against Willz was OMGUS and meritless. Then it struck me: Confusion. By admitting to the merits of Acro's case, Willz has started you down the WIFOM path. You basically can't help but think "surely a mafia wouldn't admit to the merits of someone else's case against them... but then maybe they know no one would think a mafia would do that... etc., etc." Using WIFOM reasoning is apparently kind of dumb, but instigating that kind of thinking in someone else... it's brilliant. The problem with this reasoning is that it itself is WIFOM. Acrofales had made a good case and Willz admitting it doesn't make him scum. It doesn't make him town either. The other thing that struck me as odd is Willz' continued defense of me, despite my constant attacks on him. He's planting evidence that we're on the same team. Here are some posts Willz will quote when I flip town: Setting yourself on my team is ultra-risky right now if you think there's even a chance I might be mafia (and there's a strong general consesus that I just might be). Willz knows his play is safe, however, because being mafia, he knows with 100% certainty that I am town. He's hoping for a Dittert lynch (and that's looking likely at this point) so that he can ride my townie coattails to victory. His posts Day 2 weren't exactly defending you. You martyring yourself kind of killed the discussion for a bit and Willz was trying to start it back up again. This strikes me as a very town thing to do, if you are town scum would love it if the discussion died and you got lynched as we would go into day 3 with very little info and be 5-3. This is the same thing he did when he was about to get lynched Day 1. I also went back and read ArcticFox's filter, since the newbie guides claim that mafia's number one priority should be shooting people who are on the right track. Who was Arctic leaning towards before the Broodwagon occurred? Why it's Willz and Yomi! (Arctic's mistake was sounding sane and reasonable, unlike crazy ol' Dittert here, who had the same reads but a much worse way of conveying them.) The problem here is that during the night it was you who ArcticFox was most suspicious of. Also most of trying to figure out why a night kill was killed ends up being very WIFOM. It's possible he was killed because he knew too much but its also possible because he had good logic in some wrong reads and that scared scum or that they just thought he was an easy target. I still think they're the most likely mafia pair, especially after Yomi spent all of D1 claiming that But then later, Yomi denies it. Claiming someone is basically "100% town" now passes for "frequent attacks"? Bollocks. This is certainly interesting and if Willz was scum it might implicate Yomi to some degree but I don't think Willz is scum. This is followed by some pointless back and forth between Dittert and Yomi and Acrofales switching his vote to Xatalos. Then Sir Spamalot himself returns and makes 11 posts that has Dittert posting once in the middle (this is the point where I realise it wasn't so much a back and forth as Xatalos posting a ton). I might even be somewhat inclined to vote for HiroPro instead of Dittert or yomi, but with this current situation of me/Dittert stalemate, I'm still going to keep my vote on Dittert (he has an infinitely higher chance of being Mafia than myself, after all...). ##FOS: HiroPro So we start with some good ol' OMGUS with absolutely no reasoning to back it up. Xatalos you might be 100% sure you are town but no one else is and you can't use it as reasoning in your arguments. It was just a failed theory based on yomi being Doctor and Willz town, but since I completely misunderstood yomi's post and thought Doctors could heal themselves, it looked like it made a lot of sense at first. I didn't want to reveal this theory not because I had checked yomi's alignment, but because if I was right, yomi would probably be the next night hit target (roleblock+KP). However, since this theory was a complete failure, it doesn't hurt to say it now... Xatalos really seems to have been hiding behind being a newb recently which I find very odd given his confidence earlier in the game (he has basically done an anti-Dittert, which actually strikes me as more scummy). Then there are some more pointless posts from Xatalos. Then this. Nice to see you posting at last. I agree with most of your reads (although not about myself of course...), but there really isn't too much content in this post, not even as much as in my latest Mafia/town read post. I want to ask a couple of questions: A) Why do you think I lack focus, when I have actually tunneled most of the game (ArcticFox, yomi) and almost completely focused on Mafia reads? B) Why is it suspicious to be "active and pro-town"? It's just WIFOM to think Mafia's strategy would be to appear as pro-town as possible, considering it's an extremely difficult lie to keep up and bound to fail at some point. It's been said multiple times why you lack focus, you have actually managed to both lack focus and tunnel on people. This is followed my yet more pointless stuff, then. I don't really get this... Lynching me just because it would give good information, even though you don't believe I am the most likely Mafia, or possibly even Mafia at all? I'm willing to believe this isn't a serious vote, but if it is, I need to reconsider my opinion of you... I find this exceptionally weird seeing as you suggested lynches and even vig shots for the purposes of info gathering but when it's you who gets lynched for info it suddenly doesn't make any sense. So then we get to Dittert's post. ArcticFox hardly mentions me and I don't think even mentions HiroPro at all (or maybe early on). If you read his filter and deduce these mafia reads, you need to go back to... reading school? This worries me because ArcticFox does mention him, at length. However he is right about ArcticFox not mentioning Hiro much. I was starting to become less suspicious of Dittert but this post seems off to me. It worries me that both Dittert and Xatalos seem to both omit information to try and reinforce their arguments. I don't know if it's scummy but it's definitely bad logic. With that short intermission done we return to Xatalos. Okay, so you're suspicious of my hypocrisy about blue talk instead of the act of blue talk itself. However, you fail to see one thing: I haven't fished for blues or speculated about people's roles (outside of yomi, which was a total failure anyway and can't be considered a serious post at this point). The one thing I have done is directing blue roles, which might not usually be the best idea, but consider a couple of points: A) this is a newbie game, you can't count on the blues to know what they're doing B) even if the blues don't obey my direction, it would be now impossible for Mafia to kill either me or Acrofales without taking a huge risk. I don't think this was a very suspicious move, especially considering a lot of others suggested to shoot yomi as well (and some also to heal Acrofales). The problem is nobody was blue fishing. ArcticFox mentions blues twice (once complimenting Kharad on a previous game and once as part of the reason a RNG lynch was bad) and I mention it once (as an argument against a lynch all lurkers policy). In fact the only thing that could be considered blue fishing was your post saying yomi had basically RCed which "can't be considered a serious post." I think the main reason for you directing blues is so you can get yourself jailed giving you town cred when the scum kill goes through anyway. I might have been a bit overconfident at the start because of how well my previous game went, but I still think I was somewhat reasonable in my accusations, even if I sometimes made mistakes with logical conclusions. If nothing else, my ArcticFox case generated a lot of reactions (bandwagon-jumping, refusal, ignoring) which could be analyzed later. Nothing much came out of my imallinson case, but HiroPro immediately jumped on vonKlaust, making me believe they are town&town or Mafia&town, but likely not Mafia&Mafia. My yomi case was even more succesful in pushing discussion and getting a wide scale of reactions from different people. This can all be used well if we get to see yomi's flip at some point. I don't think it's suspicious to say I'm sad about my stupidity with yomi's post, since it was totally unnecessary after all. However, looking back on it, it might not have been such a bad thing after all. Now, instead of a massive Dittert bandwagon, we have a bandwagon on both me and Dittert. This is a LOT more useful for analyzing people's behaviour later than if everyone had just voted for Dittert. In case I don't get lynched, it was actually a "good" move to make that stupid post earlier. This is a lot of explaining why he switched from overconfident to meek so quickly and what strikes me as a desperate attempt to show how helpful he has been to the town (bearing in mind this is in the middle of a ton of spam). This is followed by responding to Dittert's post and pointing out that ArcticFox did mention Dittert and FoSed him, however it also glosses over the fact that he was completely wrong about ArcticFox going after Hiro (who Xatalos has been going after for no reason I can see). Then a little more follow up in some more short posts. Also while I have been typing this he has posted yet again. What I get from Dittert's filter (which fits into only one page, quite an achievement...) is that his proposed Mafia team is this: - ArcticFox (now a confirmed townie) ---> Xatalos (a confirmed townie for myself, although I can't prove it without being killed, and I'm not willing to do that just to prove Dittert's very likely maliciousness...) - Willz (a quite likely townie in my eyes, although I dislike him wanting to lynch me only to gather information) - yomi (suspicious & an easy target, yet most likely town if Dittert is Mafia) Do you see a trend? It seems entirely possible to me that every one of Dittert's Mafia reads are actually town (at least everyone can agree ArcticFox is, and I can know about myself)... Especially if he himself is Mafia, in which case yomi is quite redeemed for tunneling him all game. If we assume Dittert is Mafia, I think the complete Mafia team is this: - Dittert - HiroPro - Funcmode/imallinson I don't know why the discussion died completely, but I'm still awaiting responses to the posts I earlier addressed to everyone voting for me right now. If you read my response to your personal accusation, then read my other posts today and still think I'm Mafia, please post why and I'll try to answer you as well as I can. He disagrees with Dittert's list saying all the people on it are probably town but gives no explanation to why he thinks that besides saying Dittert being scum helps the case that they are town. Given that we don't know Dittert's alignment this doesn't help us at the moment. He asks if we see a trend and honestly I don't. I'm not entirely sure where he is getting his mafia list from but he certainly isn't backing it up. This is also under the assumption that Dittert is scum (again we have no idea of this now) but as for the people on it Hiro is a massive OMGUS with absolutely no evidence to back it up. Funcmode I assume is on there because he is an unknown at this point and is a decent person to fill in slot three. And he has made absolutely no argument for why I am on here. All of this makes me very, very suspicious of Xatalos. He has spread a ton of confusion by throwing random accusations around and generally spamming up the thread. He keeps trying to shove the fact he is helping down our throats but he has done more harm than good. I think he is scum who has done a very good job at distracting us from getting good scumhunting done. As for Dittert I'm definitely still suspicious of him, but am starting to think he might actually be a decent town player who was super nervous Day 1 and just in a bad mood after that. ##Unvote ##Vote: Xatalos | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
While I find the analysis of voting patterns very interesting I'm not exactly sure how it helps us. To draw any conclusions from it we need to know the alignment of at least two people we don't already know. If you think there are any conclusions we can draw currently I'd love to know. As for your concerns about me. I realise I seem fairly lurky compared to some people but I post all the relevant information and thoughts I have my flying under the radar certainly isn't deliberate. I feel if I was posting a lot more I would be repeating myself or others or just spamming the thread up. Me making a case on BroodKing was just down to a personal policy of mine to always back up my votes with an argument so others can see what I was thinking when I voted. I don't feel I sheeped Dittert at the start of day 2, I posted a long case on why he struck me as suspicious in the night and it just happened you voted for him before I did. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
Dittert is Scum If Dittert is scum it makes a lot of sense that Hiro is scum as well. Hiro makes a case for someone who is weak when his team mate is looking to get lynched. I think this is probably the case both ways (If Hiro ends up getting lynched and flips scum Dittert is probably scum too). Dittert is Town However, if Dittert is town then it makes no sense for Hiro to be scum, he completely shuns the current consensus that Dittert is scum and goes for someone else to get lynched when it makes no difference to him. Therefore if Dittert is town I'm fairly sure Hiro is town. Consequently this makes me think Xatalos is scum. So while your Hiro case has merit Acrofales, I still think Xatalos is the scummier of him and Dittert leaving Hiro as town. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 17 2012 05:01 Acrofales wrote: EBWOP: I also dislike the logic in your last post. You don't actually ever convince me that Dittert or HiroPro is town and I should move back to Xatalos. Instead, you bring up a good point for suspecting Dittert again, but still stick to Xatalos. That is your good right, but what makes you like Xatalos for a lynch? I still think that Xatalos has managed to distract and confuse everyone with his posting. Every time it's been pointed out to him he has increased his posting. He has accused absolutely everyone of seeming scummy and tunnelled on an exceptionally weak player. It all looks like he is to trying to stop people getting good discussion going. I can't understand any of this from a town perspective. I'm fairly sure Xatalos and Hiro can't both be scum and out of the cases that the two have them have made so far Hiro's I can see from a town perspective Xatalos' I can't. I will have a good look through Hiro's filter to try and see what you are seeing. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
Why Am I Town? I'm the first to admit I have had many faults, the greatest of which are these: - Tunnel Vision: ignoring a lot of stuff, especially alternative explanations for events (such as yomi voting for Willz to save himself not being a Mafia-specific action) - Confirmation Bias: focusing on proving myself right more than on finding the truth (I had a pretty hard time letting go off my ArcticFox suspicions, although my reasons for suspecting him weren't very good to begin with) - Paranoia: mentioning every little suspicious detail from pretty much every player so far (I even mentioned specifically Acrofales for lurking the Day 1 lynch, although he was far from the only lurker in that situation and wasn't even otherwise suspicious at all) - Stupidity: misunderstanding rules, posts and even pronouns (my greatest moment of stupidity was thinking yomi claimed doctor while he was just talking in general) Firstly he isn't the first to admit his faults, he continued them long after he was criticized for doing them. Most of this is set-up for the next part but I would like to add one more point. Spamming: He posted a lot of unnecessary and pointless rubbish which obfuscated any point he was trying to make and made him much harder to read. But I want you to take a moment and consider: is that the only explanation? - Tunnel Vision is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia would be happy to lynch any townie, not a specific townie - Confirmation Bias is plausibly a Mafia trait, since Mafia know the roles of everyone and thus want to prove themselves right instead of finding the truth - Paranoia is not really a Mafia trait, since Mafia don't have any need to be suspicious of their fellow players or to gather too much attention - Stupidity is neither a town or Mafia trait In conclusion, only one of the reasons for my sometimes anti-town play is a Mafia trait. Even so, it's not exclusively a Mafia trait, but rather a trait of a person emotional about something (in this case, lynching Mafia). There is an awful lot of WIFOMy reasoning here, assuming what mafia will do. His points about the tunnel vision and paranoia are reasonable. Add in the spamming which is definitely a scum trait because it serves as a distraction. So were half and half on scum town traits. Now, what pro-town have I done to redeem these faults? - Activity: I have posted a lot, more than anyone else - perhaps not as much useful content as Acrofales or KharadBanar, but definitely among the most even in that category - Transparency: I have been like an open book, giving my opinion on everything without hesitation, never being afraid of suspicious slips or being proved wrong in the end - Focus on Mafia Hunting: most of my posts consist of accusing a player, noticing suspicious behaviour, giving my Mafia reads, demanding explanations, demanding activity or analyzing possible Mafia&Mafia / town & Mafia / town & town interactions between two players All of my anti-town plays are (at least somewhat) explainable from a town perspective, but are these pro-town plays explainable from a Mafia perspective? This is where I think you start to redeem yourself. I still maintain that a lot of your activity has been helpful with a decent amount being downright unhelpful. However I can't argue with the fact that you have been transparent (maybe a bit too transparent) and you have been focussed very heavily on scum hunting which makes much more sense for you as town. Onto your argument for Hiro. First of all, why would making a bad case be lynch-worthy? It's actually more likely for townies than Mafia to make bad cases, since Mafia have more information available (they know who are town and more easily see the townie perspective for posting things). So, HiroPro's case is actually pretty bad, which is hypocritical since he accuses me of posting a bad case. However, it doesn't look like he believed in his own case even himself, since when I posted a slightly better case he just unvoted immediately and jumped on the next possible bandwagon I had created. Funny, considering he later accused me of "throwing blame around and seeing where it sticks". Another hypocritical comment from him, seeing as he was himself searching for a bandwagon with enough support and not searching for Mafia. When it looked like the vonKlaust case wasn't getting support either, he quickly stepped off of it. I thought at the time that Hiro's case against you was bad. But I figured it was just a bad argument early day 1 when there weren't any good arguments around. I also agree his voting Day 1 was quite bandwaggony. Especially in the case of jumping on super late to the BroodWaggon. HiroPro defends Dittert and attacks yomi. Considering the possibility that HiroPro & Dittert are Mafia, this would make a lot of sense - diverting suspicion to yomi of the two "most suspicious players" at the time. HiroPro's hypocrisy comes through again: he claims yomi is scummy for "calling out people as Mafia without solid reasoning", yet he himself calls yomi out as Mafia without much of any reasoning (except yomi's lack of solid reasoning). The Dittert / Hiro link does make a lot of sense to me, more so from the Day 2 events. It's also interesting that this is the second time he has called someone out for something he is doing at the time. This is actually HiroPro's most pro-town post in the game, although it isn't without issues either. "The Blue Shift" is a valid point (at least to some extent), but "The Distraction Factor" is again hypocritical. HiroPro claims I "want to identify several possible candidates to lynch and then focus on the one that I think town would be willing to follow through on". This is exactly what HiroPro has been doing: throwing accusations without much basis, creating and jumping on bandwagons eagerly but without conviction (backing off fast if it doesn't take fire), focusing on finding a good bandwagon instead of searching for Mafia. Another suspicious thing about this post is the timing: if HiroPro and Dittert are a Mafia team, it would make a lot of sense to divert the vote from Dittert to me like this. If Dittert is town, however, the timing of this post would make HiroPro less suspicious (why risk switching the vote off of a townie who has already pretty much given up?). The logical conclusion is that most likely HiroPro and Dittert are both Mafia or both town. Both Mafia seems more likely considering HiroPro's weird trust in Dittert (whom most of the town find suspicious). While the "Blue Shift" part of his argument is valid and the "Distraction Factor" is certainly accurate for Xatalos, it also has some merit for Hiro himself. It seems a lot of Xatalos' argument weighs on Hiro being hypocritical, which while valid I don't think is enough to lynch him for. However I think Acrofales' argument against Hiro is much stronger. I agree that Hiro going after Xatalos is strange especially given the timing. I did have an idea of why this could mean he was town but it would require circumstances that haven't occurred so I am scrapping this theory. This leaves only the option I can think of as Hiro being scum and Dittert is his team mate. At this point I can see no other reason for Hiro to suddenly jump on Xatalos apart from to defend Dittert. After his post accusing Xatalos the is one more calling out Xatalos' case against Dittert, which strengthens my feeling they are both scum. The fact that Xatalos changed his vote later to Hiro when there were barely any votes for him makes me think he might actually be town as I can't see a scum reason for this that isn't a huge heap of WIFOM. The silence after defending Dittert is fairly damning I think because this is when the pressure eases of Dittert and onto Xataalos. At this point I think Hiro thinks he has succeeded in saving Dittert and getting Xatalos lynched. While I am still suspicious of Xatalos because he has done some fairly anti-town things so far. He has stepped up his posting recently and his and Acrofales' cases against Hiro hold up better than Hiro's against Xatalos. ##Unvote ##Vote: HiroPro The end of this ended up | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
I was going to say that the end of my post was a bit rushed because I wanted to get it out in a decent time before the deadline. because the votes were so close. However Yomi and Willz both jumped on while I was typing so that kind of invalidates that concern. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 17 2012 07:57 funcmode wrote: Well, I've stated twice now that I suspect imallinson quite highly and he's had a couple of chances to address my suspicions but said nothing. Maybe it's because he doesn't think my opinion's are worth much so it's better for him to just ignore them than risk putting himself in the spotlight, though I guess there's potentially town-mentality in that approach too. Can you explain your reasoning for suspecting me beyond my (up until recently and beyond my control) lurking and the fact that I thought Dittert might be townie after all (though I still maintained high suspicion and many others shared the same opinion at one point or another)? You have said you are suspicious of me but not really why. I can't respond unless I have something specific to respond to. As for you I have a completely neutral read you haven't posted enough for me to get a good read yet. | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 00:02 yomi wrote: Well my biggest read is xat and I kind of have blinders on for him right now. All I can think about is who his teammates are but I need to take a few steps back and consider others. My biggest question is how is hiro so sure of xat? He seems 1000% sure. I am thinking about this But nothing is coming to me right now that is really viable. So I trust hiro now obviously since we know he is town and he was dead set on xat and he was my top guy until late last night as well. I'm pretty much stuck on xat atm. I think the only information that can really be had from that is that if Hiro had protected Xatalos nothing happened. If Hiro had saved Xatalos he would have been fairly sure he was town (barring a vig shot which seems unlikely). | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
Scum #1: Xatalos I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow. Scum #2: Acrofales Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day. Scum #3 Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities. Dittert: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch. yomi: This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives. vonKlaust: This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3 Funcmode: It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment. Willz: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz Kharad: I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town. So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read): #1: Xatalos (90%) #2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not) #3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) | ||
imallinson
United Kingdom3482 Posts
On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote: Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. | ||
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