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Gone over Arctic's filter in more detail. The problem here is that we all have similar suspicions... and there are too many scum to make sense. Here is Arctic's summary of the situation:
On April 15 2012 07:12 ArcticFox wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2012 04:04 Xatalos wrote:On April 15 2012 03:44 ArcticFox wrote:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232671Shoot people tallking nonsense. Shoot lurkers. If a vig exists, make a smart call. If the vig fires and hits a green, in a majority lynch situation it doesn't hurt much -- with no vig shot if we mislynch every time, Day 3 is 5-3, mislynch is 4-3, and mafia kill makes it 3-3 and game over. If vig hits and it's green, then Day 3 is 4-3, mislynch is 3-3, and game's over anyway. Saving the shot for Day 2 only makes sense if there's a) nobody talking nonsense b) nobody lurking and c) nobody the vig is really heavily thinking is mafia. It's extremely unlikely (and from where I stand, impossible) that all 3 of these are the case. The only terrible vig result would be to shoot a blue, which is even less likely than hitting mafia, as I highly doubt there are 4 blues in play. Now let's end this pointless blue talk. It's all WIFOM anyway. Let the night actions happen and get back to finding scum after the flips. Do you think yomi is the best Vigi shot btw? And what do you think about the possibility of the Vigilante to claim his shot at the deadline? *sigh* I'm still loathe to talk about blue roles, but if you insist... If the vig shoots someone the mafia is highly unlikely to kill, only then would the claim before deadline would be safe. I'd likely wait until *after* night 1 resolves, in case they shot the same target, then vig still has the bullet and hasn't claimed unnecessarily and takes no chance at being roleblocked. Since we won't know the kill flavors, any other play seems like a bad move. Any counterclaims would work themselves out by the Day 3 lynch, so the timing of the claim is more or less irrelevant. For my vig target? There's at least 5 people who I could make a reasonable case for shooting right now, for either lurking, being highly suspected as scum, or posting just stupid shit over and over again. That's what's so terrible, especially in light of gaining no real information from the lynch -- there are SO many people with scum behavior it's actually impossible to tell. We don't have 1 or 2 good targets, we have more targets than actual mafia that exist. =/ Yes, yomi's on the list, but so are people like HiroPro and Dittert. I couldn't even really argue against a vigi hit on willz. The fact that the list is so large at all is what sucks. We need the entire town to be more active and more focused in the scumhunting. The random fingerpointing, the rage, the WIFOMing, the confusion, and the horrific logic jumps are doing nothing but making our job harder. If you can go back through your filter and go, "wow, this actually can be read as REALLY scummy," then you're causing part of the confusion. Stop and read the filters. Make a solid, logical case. Post it. Read the counterarguments and see if they make sense or if they're full of crap. Be open and transparent with your reads. Anything else is just making the mafia's job easier and the town's job harder. I really hope our Day 2 is more productive. We spent so much time arguing with each other, and then getting no actual info from the lynch that Day 1 was nearly a complete waste. I feel like the night flips will give us something better to work with, and hopefully a fresh start for all of us.
This means: if you are town, step up your game. Be active today. We have 3 scum left and I really want N2 to start with only 2 scum left. At the moment, we are lynching into Dittert, Yomi, Xatalos, Willz and imallison, which is just too many people. I actually think Dittert's final post was quite townie. It reminded me quite a bit of bluelightz (in any game he plays town): not contributing, but angry when everybody else screws it up. My question is: does the anger and frustration in his post feel genuine to you?
I am inclined to think it's genuine and that, counterintuitively lowers the chance of him being scum.
What he HAS managed to do is kill all D2 discussion. Lets discuss our other targets. Funcnode, you're new to the thread. Can you give us some analysis from the outside on what you think of the goings on so far?
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On April 16 2012 01:58 imallinson wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 01:16 willz22912 wrote:On April 15 2012 10:20 imallinson wrote:On April 15 2012 08:29 willz22912 wrote: I really have no idea what the hell Dittert is doing. Should we really ditch all D2 discussion and let this vote go through? If he's going to be modkilled/replaced we may as well look at someone else or at least save him from another day. If we mis-lynch him today and Mafia kill another town again N2 we're at 5-3 D3, going to be hard to win at that point. We definitely shouldn't ditch the discussion and if a better candidate comes up we should lynch them. However, I for one am not going to let someone martyr themselves as an easy out. Can you explain the underlined part here a little better? Are you saying you will or will not let Dittert martyr himself? I have no idea what Dittert's plan is for doing this as town considering if we mis-lynch again and lose another town during the night it's going to be 5-3 D3, which is pretty much mylo for town. My thoughts are basically that Dittert is my #1 scum read at the moment, yomi is #2 and you and Xatalos are tied for #3 at this point. If someone makes a case that replaces Dittert as my #1 of course I will change my vote. What I mean my not letting him martyr himself as an easy way out is that his martyring hasn't dropped my suspicion of him at all. If he had done what you had done and actually posted stuff that was useful to the town I would be more inclined to think he was town. The fact he basically said I'm off you guys are on your own and even suggested bringing the day 2 deadline forward makes me think he wants as little discussion going on as possible which seems exceptionally scummy to me. I honestly think he is scum who knows he is dead and is allowing his team to bus him to stop town getting any useful disscusion going day 2. This is the other explanation for his post. I find it really hard to get a read on Dittert's two posts since the D1 lynch. It's the main reason I didn't take my vote off him. Well, I expect him to post something useful at 8pm EDT.
@KB: I kinda dislike connection play as it invariably introduces wifom. I prefer straight-up behavioural analysis, but seeing as I'm stuck, I am willing to give it a try.
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On April 16 2012 02:31 willz22912 wrote: Since a few people are around and active, if we are operating under the assumption that Xatalos and Dittert are both scum, shouldn't we lynch Xatalos first because he was by far more active than Dittert? This would also provide town with more information as to his interactions with other players, far more so than if we lynch Dittert. You back to soft-defending Dittert? From most people I would accept this argument, but I am not sold on the willz-dittert case being so unlikely.
While I don't really want to dredge up GoT again, there is an enlightening example where Gumshoe and I went at eachother like nuts. Noob mafia is just as unpredictable as noob town and "light pressure" can be misread as "bussing", causing the other to counterbus.
However, the willz-dittert connection is far more interesting than that. Dittert is posting a case on willz. Willz does not OMGUS him, but instead protects him. Either because he is convinced Dittert is really town, or because he doesn't want Dittert's case a. getting too much attention or b. drawing attention to Dittert.
Now you're defending Dittert again, but this time for not giving as much information. Once again there's a town explanation, but it is suspicious that it comes from willz.
I for one am far from dropping the willz-dittert connection.
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I cannot explain the motivations between you and dittert without wifom, which is exactly the reason I hate connection play.
My case D1 was behavioural analysis of you. I didn't make connections. I never said anything remotely like "if Dittert is scum then Willz is also scum" or anything like it. I may have brought up possible motivations for your play, but I believe I have always been fair in pointing out possible townie motives for doing the same thing.
Some further corrections: you didn't OMGUS Dittert, you OMGUS'd brood. You protected Dittert all day saying he was noob town and should shut up.
You are soft defending Dittert: you are making a case that he shouldn't be lynched. It's a soft defense because it's not really saying he's not scum, but because his lynch would not be useful. I disagree. Lynching scum is always useful. So far he's still my strongest scum read.
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I think yomi's post is definitely something to keep in mind. I for one had not triggered to HiroPro defending Dittert.
However, I am running into a problem. When looking through Dittert's filter properly I find his D1 posts read like town. The problem is his 2 last posts. He basically switched from an "I want to contribute" to a "Fuck you, you suck" stance. How is this helping town? It's like a football team beating up the goalie if the other team scores 1-0. Dittert, I want to believe you're town, but rather than martyring yourself (which is, if anything, a scummy thing to do), you need to help us find the actual scum.
You say you want to:
On April 15 2012 08:14 Dittert wrote: Once you see I flip town, you'll be able to put a lot more of the pieces of the puzzle together. However, this is not true. At the moment your flipping green would give us a big null tell on willz (and HiroPro): he has been defending you, either because he's town and believed you were town, or because he's scum and knows you're town (and an easy target to gain town credit on, because the chance of you ending up dead D1 was present... and is present again today).
It will probably make me, Yomi and KB look bad as we have been pushing hardest for your lynch.
I think you're confusing the two ways of killing. Being night-killed can give a bit more importance to your cases (not too much, mafia might just have killed you because you're strong town, or they had a suspicion of blue, or because they want to make town think that your cases were good... or wifom it up!). Being lynched brings out suspicion against whoever has been pushing for the lynch, bandwagons on. It doesn't add importance to whatever the lynchee said, except that we no longer have to wifom motive. For instance we can now believe everything broodking said was because he really believed that. Not that it helps much if what you have said so far is unconvincing.
In short: don't give up. Convince us on lynching willz or yomi (or a new scumspect you find when you read through the thread)!
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Also: vonKlaust went from flying under the radar to lurking. VONKLAUST, come out of hiding and post!!!
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I don't really see a motive for scumtalos to post something as random as that (unless dittert is also scum and he's trying to distract the vote off dittert). I have also decided to ignore anything Xatalos says about Yomi and vice versa. So yeah. My vote stays on dittert.
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I woke up and gotta go out. Had a very quick read through the thread. I like funcnode's analysis of Dittert. I also quite Dittert's last post.
Dittert: you have gone with willz and yomi again. Any idea of who the third scum would be?
Xatalos on the other hand is just digging his hole deeper.
##unvote ##vote: Xatalos
Be back in a couple of hours.
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Okay. I don't want to wait any longer. I have been waiting all day to see what happened. I have the sneaking suspicion that mafia is just perfectly happy to leave the lynch on Xatalos: the inactivity is quite telling, as I don't think the cases on Xata are good enough for a mafia to just roll over and buss their buddy. Now I am not sure here, mafia could just have gone into hiding.
However, I have not sat still. When I said I'd take a stab at connection play, I meant it. Rather than just the cases, I started with analysing voting behaviour. Now this is going to be a very long and technical post, and as with any connection play it makes some assumptions about what I think mafia would and wouldn't do. First a very quick summary of D1 votes: + Show Spoiler [voting behaviour D1] + KB bad pressures HiroPro Xatalos makes a case on ArcticFox imallison hops on ArcticFox Yomi votes Dittert without a proper case, but suspicions HiroPro makes a case against Xatalos BroodKing suspects Dittert imallison makes a throwaway vote on trumpetarm KB: another obvious pressure vote on Yomi
VOTECOUNT @ April 13 6:52 ArcticFox (1): Xatalos Dittert (2): Yomi, BroodKing trumpetarm (1): imallison Yomi (1): KB Xatalos (1): HiroPro
No vote: Acro, ArcticFox, Dittert, trumpetarm, willz, vonKlaust ---- Xatalos makes a new case: vonKlaust HiroPro follows vonKlaust counters HiroPro and immediately unvotes when HiroPro defends HiroPro kisses and makes up (unvote) Dittert makes a case against Willz, Yomi and ArcticFox. Vote Yomi BroodKing unvotes Dittert based on it ArcticFox makes a case on Yomi (I cannot call it following KB) Acrofales makes a case on willz KB follows vonKlaust follows Dittert follows (granted, he had a case already and was voting yomi only because he didn't think willz woud get town support) Xatalos follows (stronger than his own cases)
VOTECOUNT @ April 14 00:40 Willz (5): Acro, KB, vonKlaust, Dittert, Xatalos Dittert (1): yomi trumpetarm (1): imallison yomi (1): ArcticFox
No vote: trumpetarn, BroodKing, HiroPro, willz --- BroodKing follows willz (small addition to case) Willz makes a case against BroodKing Xatalos makes a case on Yomi KB votes for lurker HiroPro Willz goes emo and votes for himself Willz decides to save himself, because ArcticFox talks him into it. KB votes for yomi
VOTECOUNT @ April 14 05:35 Willz (4): Acro, vonKlaust, Dittert, BroodKing Ditter (1): yomi trumpetarm (1): imallison yomi (4): ArcticFox, willz, Xatalos, KB
No vote: trumpetarm, HiroPro --- Yomi wants to save himself: votes willz vonKlaust flipflops: votes Yomi BroodKing votes Yomi and town blows up. Yomi votes BroodKing (chance to save himself?) KB searching for consensus (understandable): votes BroodKing Xatalos hops on the bandwagon vonKlaust hops on the bandwagon imallison comes up with a plausible explanation to hop on the bandwagon ArcticFox hops on the bandwagon HiroPro hops on the bandwagon
FINAL VOTE D1 BroodKing (7): yomi, KB, Xatalos, vonKlaust, imallsion, ArcticFox, HiroPro yomi (2): willz, BroodKing willz (2): Acro, Dittert
No vote: trumpetarm
and D2 votes so far: + Show Spoiler [D2 voting behaviour] + Acro votes Dittert based on nightly reads Yomi sheeps Imallison sheeps Dittert /suicides KB bandwagons Xatalos makes a case on Yomi (again) HiroPro makes a case on Xatalos Xatalos bandwagons Dittert for really weak reasons KB bandwagons Dittert, with a good analysis post Willz votes Xatalos Yomi makes a case against Xatalos, again, but KEEPS his vote on Dittert KB sheeps Xatalos (although he's building on his earlier case)
VOTECOUNT @ April 16 05:51 Dittert (5): Acro, Yomi, imallison, Dittert, Xata Xata (3): HiroPro, willz, KB
No vote: Funcmode, vonKlaust ---
vonKlaust bandwagons Xatalos funcmode bandwagons Xatalos Dittert unsuicides and continues his case on willz Acro unvotes Dittert and bandwagons Xata imallison posts a long case and bandwagons Xata
VOTECOUNT @ April 17 00:45 Dittert (2): Yomi, imallison, Xata Xatalos (7): HiroPro, willz, KB, vonKlaust, funcmode, imallison Willz (1): Dittert
And now the assumptions:
1. I assume that mafia is particularly willing to buss their mates: if there is a plausible way out, they will take it. 2. I assume that mafia does not care who of two townies gets lynched and won't voteswitch unless a bandwagon calls for it. + Show Spoiler [speculation] +I realize the second may not be plausible to some of you, but I for one, as scum, am happy with any town lynch. If it's someone dangerous I consider it a nice bonus, but I'll take what I can get. I am extrapolating that most scum play that way.
I tried to find something interesting in the pre-Yomi/Willz votes, but there is nothing that stands out to me. However, both the Yomi/Willz-votes and the Brood bandwagon allow me to draw a few conclusions. First I would like to say that Dittert, Willz', Trumpetarn and my own absense at the final vote could be seen as suspicious. I personally believe there are valid reasons for all these absenses and don't think I can read anything into them.
+ Show Spoiler [Brood bandwagon conclusions] + imallison and HiroPro waited until the very end before switching. They also felt the need to write a lengthy justification while the vote was already sealed. I find this quite interesting behaviour. It may not be suspicious, but file this away for later.
Note that neither was PARTICIPATING in the willz/yomi-controversy.
If willz and yomi are both innocent and either imallison or hiro are scum, they could have been waiting for a bandwagon to get going and jump on. Exactly as it happened. This behaviour is still plausible, but not as likely if one of Yomi/Willz is scum. In this case I would at the very least expect some soft defense while waiting it out. We will get to filters later.
+ Show Spoiler [Willz/Yomi split conclusions] + There are four possible cases and I will go through them one by one:
Willz and Yomi both scum The D1 happenings do not make a lot of sense to me in this case. My case on Willz came fairly early and there was plenty of time to make alternative cases. I find it extremely unlikely that scum would come up with an alternative case on another scum member, so if Yomi and Willz are both scum, then Xatalos (initial refocus on Yomi) is almost certainly town. Moreover, I see no reason for scum to voteswitch between the two, so if both are town, then KB and vonKlaust. Combining the reluctance to buss a scumbuddy and the lack of motivation to switch, that leaves the people who jumped on Yomi but not Willz (maybe scramble for town credit when it was clear that the lynch was between two scum): ArcticFox is the only one to do this. That leaves imallison, HiroPro and trumpetarn who lurked as a possible third scum. If this is the case, scum played D1 terribly (or very risky): they were waiting till the last minute to bandwagon someone else. If this is the case then the first people to hop on Brood are extremely suspect. However, I find it very implausible that this scenario happened. I will disregard it in future analysis.
Willz scum and Yomi town Now Xatalos' case makes a LOT of sense. He is protecting his scumbuddy Willz from a lynch by focusing suspicion elsewhere. It is improbable that Acro would make the case on Willz (and same for Dittert). Due to assumption 1, it is unlikely that people voting for Willz are scum (with the exception of Xatalos, who could plausibly be said to vote to reduce suspicion and then invent a countercase). KB and vonKlaust are probably town.
Willz town and Yomi scum Now Xatalos' case makes no sense at all: why buss a buddy with a likely candidate primed and ready? Same for KB and vonKlaust. It also means that Yomi's scumbuddies are hiding in the people who didn't vote for Yomi: Two of: Acro, Dittert, HiroPro, imallison, trumpetarm are scum. If you want to speculate about me being scum, do so yourself. I'm not wasting time on that. It leaves two of Dittert, HiroPro, imallison and trumpetarm.
Willz and Yomi both town If both Willz and yomi are town, I see no reason for vote switches by scum as they frankly don't give a fuck. Xatalos, KB and vonKlaust are probably town.
We see that this behavioural analysis alone makes it very likely that vonKlaust and KB are probably town (and imho their filter is another indication. More so for vonKlaust than KB). We will keep the three possible cases in mind as we analyse D2 behaviour. So far the only significant thing that has happened is the Dittert/Xatalos case. So here goes:
+ Show Spoiler [D2 Dittert/Xatalos cases] + Once again, four possibilitites, but now they have repercussions by taking D1 votes into account! Lets make the lists:
Dittert and Xatalos both scum Xatalos' behaviour makes no sense. He is under suspicion and bandwagons his mafia buddy instead of just voting for Yomi based on his entire night of shitting up the thread with him. Only possible reason is if Yomi is the third scum and the scum is really confusing the shit up. This seems unlikely, because yomi's behaviour is inconsistent with being scumbuddy with Xata and Dittert. Why vote dittert in the first place? Seems extremely unlikely.
Dittert scum and Xatalos town In this case, it is unlikely that Yomi is scum: despite the night spat he is sticking with the Dittert vote and only FoS'd Xatalos. Very weak case, Yomi can still switch at any point and while the bandwagon is going the right way there is no need to switch.
If Xatalos is town, that rules out situation 2 of D1, leaving: A. Willz town and Yomi scum One of HiroPro, imallison and funcnode is the missing scum.
B. Willz and Yomi both town Two of HiroPro, imallison, funcnode are scum.
Dittert town and Xatalos scum People making the case on Xatalos are unlikely to be scum. Specifically HiroPro. Why make the case that refocuses on your scumbuddy when you can ride an easy mislynch? I also find it hard to think of a reason for anybody to switch, which leaves too few scums. This situation seems unlikely to me. For the sake of completeness, it discards situations 3 and 4 of D1, leaving: Willz town and Yomi scum In this case one of: imallison and funcnode is the missing scum. Both have switched to Xatalos, though, which seems like a strange buss.
Dittert and Xatalos both town If we plug this information into the D1 results we get two possible D1 scenarios: A. Willz town and Yomi scum Two of HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are scum.
B. Willz and Yomi both town And by elimination: HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are scum.
Even if we ignore all filters, we can draw some interesting conclusions. Specifically that [b]HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are flying suspiciously under the radar. There is almost certainly a scum hiding in that group and I for one want to find him.
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bah, the only thing i didn't try to preview was the last bit and i screwed up the formatting on that. EBWOP: Even if we ignore all filters, we can draw some interesting conclusions. Specifically that HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are flying suspiciously under the radar. There is almost certainly a scum hiding in that group and I for one want to find him.
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Now for filters: I have also gone over the filters and there's some further connections I think are quite likely:
The Dittert Connection If Dittert is scum, then Willz and Yomi are probably not. This is particularly interesting, because it makes it very unlikely that Dittert is scum: if my vote analysis of D1 is right, then the only scenario in which Dittert can be scum is if Yomi is also scum, or Xatalos is also scum. Lets take a new look at these situations. + Show Spoiler [Dittert scum speculation] + Yomi is Dittert's first scumbuddy. In this case Dittert is doing a good case of bussing his buddy. He does this at the start of D1, before there is any reason to. The only evidence for this is that he explains that his strongest scum read is Willz and keeps his vote on him. Possible, but not particularly plausible. Xatalos is Dittert's first scumbuddy. Then my real question is: what is the third scum doing today? Why no activity in trying to get the lynch to switch? Why is Dittert the ONLY one to be voting for someone else. This seems extremely unlikely. The only two lynch suspects all day have been Dittert and Xatalos. This seems like too bad to be true scumplay.
Verdict: Dittert
Yomi Yomi has a couple of interesting spats. He goes at it with Dittert, HiroPro and Xatalos and thus it seems unlikely that he is on the scumteam with any of these (although the Xatalos one was quite harmless and could plausibly have been used to distance himself from his scumbuddy). However, Xatalos is already not on a scumteam with Yomi based on voting behaviour. Verdict If Yomi is scum, then HiroPro is town. If HiroPro is scum, then Yomi is town.
I still think it's quite possible Yomi is scum.
Imallison Imallison makes a case against trumpetarn. This could be distancing, but when asked to make a case against anybody, he picked this lurker out of the couple of options there. Imallison soft-defends Yomi and HiroPro.
Verdict: no hard conclusions here. If Imallison flips red, worth scrutinizing Yomi and HiroPro. However, I am disliking his filter more the longer this game goes on. His cases always seem to be following the general trend.
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And now, because this analysis is pointless without some kind of a conclusion. I am willing to bet this lynch on the analysis and the process of elimination I am going through.
The only way I can make sense of this current bandwagon on Xatalos is if he's town. I voted for him this morning in the hope of drawing out a defense. This may have been a bad plan, but I have to admit that I was stuck in my analysis and needed more info. The lack of a defense so far means that scum is either willing to let it go so late that they run a big risk in saving their scumbuddy, or Xatalos is town.
I have looked through everybody's filter to make sense of scum reads. Discarding Dittert and Xatalos and for now assuming KB and vonKlaust are town as well, that leaves:
Yomi Willz HiroPro Funcnode Imallison
Of these, I feel that Willz has actually redeemed himself quite nicely during the night and I am leaning somewhat town on him again.
Now the rest of these filters are all pretty damned terrible and distinguishing between them is fucking hard.
Funcnode was first Trumpetarn, whose filter is pretty much a blank page. Funcnode has since posted a list in which he sheeped the general opinion on pretty much everybody. He also decided Xatalos was scum, just like everybody else. This is neither scummy nor townie, but it doesn't help us at all. I am willing to give him the day off in the hope to get a clearer read. Replacing someone who afk'd out of the vote is not useful at all.
Yomi of these four, I have the most mixed feelings about Yomi. I actually think he has brought up quite a lot of townie points. However, his filter is still not completely convincing. Am also willing to let him slip, but at least I will share my reads on him so far: + Show Spoiler [ Acro's reads of Yomi] + Points out how bad the discussion is. Fat load of nothing. Lurking? Dropped in 8 minutes after Xata called him out. Suspicious of Xata and Brood for vague reasons. Wow, made a fubar post @April 13 2012 01:12. Thinks accusing people in every post is townie behaviour.
Seems a bit panicked. Also, defense of Dittert by ArcticFox? More like an OMGUS to dodge the question. Lashing out like a madman...
BroodKing is suspicious of his top 3 list where he doesn't follow the ranking. I disagree with that read, he's just listing 3 mafia members. Happen to be the most suspected player and two lurkers (arcticfox, hiropro, dittert). Easy picks.
Throws some suspicion at HiroPro.
Gets into an OMGUS with Dittert. Dittert and Yomi both scum seems increasingly unlikely.
Yomi buddies willz. Willz looking townie at this point, so who knows.
Something weird with yomi defending his defense of willz. Not a tell, just weird.
Soft accusation of Dittert. Later turns into a hard accusation.
Is less willing than willz to just roll over and die.
Lies about being the first to suspect Brood. His post is a throwaway that could have meant anything.
Seems increasingly unlikely that Yomi is on the scumteam with Dittert or HiroPro. Is reluctant to say Xata is mafia.
Goes back and forth poking holes in Xatalos' logic. Not much use either way.
I think Xata catches too much flak for misunderstanding Yomi. It is really easy to misunderstand. Who drives this point home?
Finally. Yomi makes a post suspecting HiroPro and Dittert (been harping on them all game). His post makes some sense. I would not expect a connection case like this from a mafia member, it's too risky.
Claims activity, but does nothing.
Townometer: ii Scumometer: ii
That leaves HiroPro and imallison. Both their filters throw up giant red flags. Here are briefly my reads on both: + Show Spoiler [imallison] + imallison: fat load of nothing posts. Seems pretty clueless. Buddying people, mainly Xatalos. Posts a case on Trumpetarn which is not bad, but picking on an inactive noobie is pretty easy. Still buddying Xatalos.
Many more nothing posts. Makes a case against Trumpetarn for nothing.
Same as Hiro... makes a baddish case against Brood. Either because he's town and believes it, or because he's scum and wants to seal the deal.
Makes a good list during the night. Note the town read on Arctic tho. Soft defense on HiroPro?
Is very scared of a vig shot...
Posts a lot more sheeping. Definitely soft defending HiroPro. Also soft defending Yomi.
Good case against Xatalos, who is currently the prime for lynching. No read there.
Scumometer: ii Townometer: i
+ Show Spoiler [HiroPro] + Responded to pressure vote in a lacadaisical manner (as expected). Pointed out problem with LaL. Made a good, brief post about Xatalos' useless case against ArcticFox. Also points out inconsistent behaviour. Pointed out yomi's OMGUS dodge of the question. However, his filter is pretty much void of any actual opinions. Votes all over the place and a flimsy case on Xatalos.
Soft defends trumpetarm: possible connection?
Starts to get into the spirit of the game around April 13 07:11. Is convinced that Xatalos is town and his case against vonKlaust is good. Maybe too easy, maybe not.
Holy hypocrit. vonKlaust correctly points out the hipocrisy in his argument. Throwing blame around and hoping it sticks?
Soft defense of Dittert?
Scrambles to cover his tracks on the hipocrisy argument.
Scum read on broodking... in a post comparing the three. The bandwagon was already gone by this point. CLASSIC mafia ploy.
Makes a decent case on xatalos and votes. Maybe trying to sort out dittert's mess. Does not make much sense if dittert is town.
Could still be very noob town.
Townometer: i Scumometer: iiii
I know these reads are not very useful without the actual references to the posts, but I have had it with typing. Btw, townometer points are earned by doing something townie. Scumometer by doing something scummy. Today I like a HiroPro lynch.
##vote HiroPro
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sorry. that was wrong ##unvote ##vote: HiroPro
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On April 17 2012 02:38 imallinson wrote: @Acrofales
While I find the analysis of voting patterns very interesting I'm not exactly sure how it helps us. To draw any conclusions from it we need to know the alignment of at least two people we don't already know. If you think there are any conclusions we can draw currently I'd love to know.
As for your concerns about me. I realise I seem fairly lurky compared to some people but I post all the relevant information and thoughts I have my flying under the radar certainly isn't deliberate. I feel if I was posting a lot more I would be repeating myself or others or just spamming the thread up. Me making a case on BroodKing was just down to a personal policy of mine to always back up my votes with an argument so others can see what I was thinking when I voted. I don't feel I sheeped Dittert at the start of day 2, I posted a long case on why he struck me as suspicious in the night and it just happened you voted for him before I did. Doesn't really matter what I call it. It's your vote that matters. ALL the votes on Dittert are justified by his fucknuts nightpost and his martyring himself after a few votes. Your case was the first to point it out, but it was extremely obvious. One look at that post and I was writing him off as really too angry.
Let me put it this way: if Dittert is town, then it is just an easy out. Everybody was going to connect those dots and it's free town credit to be the first. If he's scum, then brownie points for you: you were the first.
However, that doesn't mean much. ArcticFox, willz and myself made similar points, with KB and funcnode also repeating that argument on Dittert in their lists.
I think I have said it before: anybody can make a case based on a bad play. I have done it multiple times in both GoT mafia and DFM2 mafia. The trick is to find the motive behind the play. Is it a townie thinking it's scum, or is it scum trying to push a townie lynch. THAT is what my analysis is about. Trying to discern motives in the play.
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EBWOP: your policy for broodking is a good policy to have regardless of whether you're scum or town. I was analyzing your vote (which was a jump on the bandwagon of a now confirmed townie), not the post.
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Okay, I really don't want to be the only one talking here. There is quite a lot of WIFOM involved with my analysis and I'm sure other people, in addition to imallison, can find holes in it that make a lot of sense.
Now, back to imallison. I agree. When I was on the last part I basically forgot about the connections: I used the connections to wittle down the suspect list and then used straight up filter analysis to conclude that HiroPro was the most scummy. However, you are right that if HiroPro flips red, then Dittert is quite probably scum. Lets consider it again.
If Dittert is town and HiroPro is scum, then HiroPro has done something that goes directly against my initial assumption number 2: mafia won't bother making new cases when they can bandwagon a townie. There are some high wifom reasons for doing so, but when looking at when HiroPro makes the case, I cannot really get them. At that point, I had fingered Xata as suspicious and Yomi was still having at him. However, most of the "Xata is suspicious" posts came later.
However, if Dittert is red then my reasoning is wrong somewhere in the analysis. Lets go through the HiroPro-Dittert connections and see what makes sense.
HiroPro-Dittert-Xatalos. HiroPro's case makes no sense. HiroPro-Dittert-Yomi. The Dittert-Yomi connection seems to preclude this possibility. Unless I am wrong about their tunneling each other at the start of the game. It seems farfetched. HiroPro-Dittert-willz. Seems unlikely given Dittert's posts.
However, I admit that I may have used faulty logic somewhere in concluding Dittert is innocent, as Dittert, HiroPro and anybody else could make a lot of sense:
HiroPro has defended Dittert at almost every opportunity. Dittert has acted very vague on HiroPro: there is some soft-defense in there. Especially when answering Xatalos. I kinda like that connection.
I will go back to the Dittert option and have a good look at my logic.
In the meantime, imallison, it is ALSO possible that HiroPro is innocent and you are scum. You only lost the race for my vote by a very small margin. I would love to hear people's opinions of HiroPro and imallison. They have REALLY been flying under the radar for far too long.
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EBWOP: I also dislike the logic in your last post. You don't actually ever convince me that Dittert or HiroPro is town and I should move back to Xatalos. Instead, you bring up a good point for suspecting Dittert again, but still stick to Xatalos. That is your good right, but what makes you like Xatalos for a lynch?
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I read Xatalos' post. I am still uncertain about his alignment, but I do agree that there are better scumreads out there and moving off Dittert may not have been the best thing to do today.
I have to go cook and eat. I promise to be back well before the lynch and would love to see more people, other than Xatalos synthesise their thoughts on Dittert and HiroPro. PLEASE do not focus only on the connection. We can only lynch one person today and unless you have an excellent reason for discarding one (or all) of: Xatalos, HiroPro and Dittert, or an excellent reason for suspecting someone else, please keep this focused. We only have 3 more hours until the lynch.
@vonKlaust: I am sorry to hear you may have to abandon the game. I would love to hear your thoughts on Dittert, Xatalos and HiroPro.
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Lol. I think the fail in my logic is pretty clear. I was focused so much on the four lynch targets Willz/Yomi/Dittert/Xatalos that I completely forgot that it is completely possible that Yomi, Willz and Xatalos are all clear. This is consistent with the D1 situation 4 and D2 situation 2. I am not quite sure why I was tunneling on one of those three having to be Dittert's scumbuddy. Having scumbuddies outside of the other lynch targets is entirely possible and I like the HiroPro-Dittert connection imallison proposed, based on both their filters.
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I think it's time for one of the now infamous Acrofales CASES.
It'll be brief, because HiroPro's filter is really really short. I have not been particularly impressed by his play all game, as you could have read here, here or here.
At this point I had settled on HiroPro probably just being bad town. However, the problem with bad town is that it can equally well be explained by mafia. I was willing to give Hiro the benefit of the doubt, because 1. it's a newbie game and 2. chances of being scum are smaller than those of being town. However, I am no longer so sure. All the behaviour I explained away as bad town can also be a mafia throwing blame around until it sticks somewhere. First he tries Xatalos, because of a bad case. Then he tries vonKlaust.
What really struck me in this case was the following discussion: + Show Spoiler [HiroPro-vonKlaust discussion] +On April 13 2012 07:40 HiroPro wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 07:32 vonKlaust wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 13 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote:Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust. Here are the parts of his posts I'm most suspicious about: + Show Spoiler +On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote: Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this.
Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far.
This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts? On April 12 2012 23:24 vonKlaust wrote: Well, I AM confused. And I can agree that I come across as somebody who doesn't take solid stances. I don't know alot about this game, and I try to be humble to that fact. I say what I think, but you're likely not gonna see me write something like "I am perfectly comfident this is how we should play this game" or "I know for a fact that X is scum". That's just not how my brain works.
Again he is trying to hide behind his confusion/newbieness. I find it suspicious how he keeps repeating how confused he is. Even if you are truly confused, why spend your energy explaining to others that you are a useless and confused townie? On April 13 2012 05:43 vonKlaust wrote: I still have a feeling that Dittert is just a confused townie. I think the whole RNG-thing have been blown out of proportions and I think his weak case against Willz might have been rushed since he felt pressured to contribute to the scumhunt.
I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it.
HiroPro also comes across as a bit suspiscious. The way he has just popped in a couple of times. Both of the times short after someone called him out as lurking. It makes me feel he is actively lurking.
I would like HiroPro to write more, but for now I think I'll go with Xatalos as my prime suspect. That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going? ##Unvote ##Vote: vonKlaust I just made a post about me acting indecisive and unproductive in the beginning of the game. While I'm sure it won't give you much comfort, since I basically agree that was the case, but that is the plain truth. You can find it here: + Show Spoiler +http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14321898 This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts? You're really for jumping to conclussions aren't you? What I meant was exactly what i said: I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. To me, it seems more likely for a newbie mafia to write about blue roles than for a newbie blue. I wrote this to combat a possible argument against him being scum. How is this indecisive with what at the time were my suspicions? I basically agreed with what you were saying. Wouldn't that make you more of a scumslipper than me? That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going? The fact that I called Dittert out as a confused townie don't have anything to do with that I felt very confused in the beginning of the game, except for the fact that I can understand how he would feel as a confused townie. Ofc I can have you as my prime suspect even though I(probably wrongly) supported your case against ArticFox. I can't see how you think that is wierd. At the time I didn't have anything on you, and I thought your claims were reasonable. Now, I have something on you, and I no longer think your claims were reasonable. See? And as I wrote in my post about you being my prime suspect: No, you're not my only suspect. I also pointed out HiroPro as someone I think is playing in a way which is very negative for town, which makes me suspect him. And also, as you would see if you would actually read my posts, my suspicions against you have nothing to do with your actual case against ArticFox. It was the fact that you tried to justify your case on other grounds than it being a good case. Also, I think that I have actually started to be much more productive than earlier. I'm getting more used to this, and now there is more to go on. I am the first to agree with that I wasn't very productive before. This is so contradictory. Why on earth would you support the case of the person who you most believe to be mafia??? Analysis: this is either really bad reading, or it is willfully misrepresenting vonKlaust's position. On April 13 2012 07:57 HiroPro wrote:Show nested quote + What actually happened: 1. Xatalos made a case. 2. I supported the case. 3. I no longer supported the case. 4. I started to susspect Xatalos.
Alright, I see this. But if Xatalos is your main suspect, I'm still wondering why you never voted for him. Show nested quote +
And by the way: First you voted Xatalos. Later you wrote: Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious).
Then, without ever writing anything about that you're starting to doubt your suspicions or anything along those lines: ##Unvote: Xatalos ##Vote: vonKlaust
Isn't this exactly what you're accusing me of?
1. Xatalos makes bad case. 2. I vote for Xatalos. 3. Broodking asks why I'm "bandwagoning Xatalos" (lololol) 4. I respond 5. Xatalos makes good case. 6. I trust Xatalos more and see similar suspicious behavior as Xatalos does in vonKaust. I vote for vonKlaust. Analysis: graceful backpeddling. vonKlaust not only destroyed the case, but switch and baited. How can HiroPro make this case, if he did the EXACT same thing (albeit in the reverse order)?On April 13 2012 08:03 HiroPro wrote: Because the reason for me suspecting him was his bad case.....
Obviously if he posts an actual good case, he doesn't appear as mafia to me.
And the case against you has merit. I would also still like to know why you never voted for Xatalos if he was your strongest mafia read. And the bad logic coverup. It is really a shame vonKlaust didn't follow up very hard on this and it got lost in the willz caseHowever, we still have this gem: On April 13 2012 08:24 HiroPro wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 08:19 vonKlaust wrote: I voted for HiroPro because he started to switch around the casuality. And his inconcistancy on changing suspects. On the matter of casuality he claimed:
1. I suspected Xatalos 2. I supported his case.
What actually happened:
1. Xatalos made a case. 2. I supported the case. 3. I no longer supported the case. 4. I started to susspect Xatalos.
As I wrote before, I can agree with that what he wrote isn't totally inconcistant, it's still wierd.
I'm not trying to misrepresent what you said. I read your posts from the ones that Xatalos quoted (there was one post in which you said that you agreed with the case against ArticFox and another post that said that Xatalos was your biggest scum read) and assumed that they were all around the same time. That was my mistake. Okay. Lets look at the Xatalos case: On April 13 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote:HiroPro, you really need to post more. Right now you're just a huge question mark to me, which is worse than if I had at least a neutral read on you. Your case against me also seems pretty half-hearted at best... I can't say if you're serious or just making a weak fake pressure. In any case, your play so far has been anti-town and unproductive. I just need to see something more from you before coming to conclusions. I went through every player's filters and rearranged my preferences for lynching. At the moment I'm willing to unvote ArcticFox and see more from him before a lynch. There are a couple of reasons for this: A) His later posts have actually been useful and contributive. B) I must admit my original case on him wasn't as strong as I first thought it was... It lacked sufficient cold facts (except the policy lynch talk) and was more based on intuition than logic. Still, I don't regret voting for him, as this case pushed the discussion forward and revealed a lot of opinions. I'm not saying it was just a calculated pressure, but partly so. C) Some of the most pro-town players, in my opinion, have also defended him (such as Acrofales and Willz). So, who to vote for if not ArcticFox? I agree with BroodKing's case on vonKlaust and imallinson's case on trumpetarn. Either of them would be good lynches. Acrofales made a good case against Dittert and yomi, and I'd be willing to lynch either of them, but neither of them has posted much yet (same as HiroPro). Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust. Here are the parts of his posts I'm most suspicious about: Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote: Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this.
Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far.
This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts? Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 23:24 vonKlaust wrote: Well, I AM confused. And I can agree that I come across as somebody who doesn't take solid stances. I don't know alot about this game, and I try to be humble to that fact. I say what I think, but you're likely not gonna see me write something like "I am perfectly comfident this is how we should play this game" or "I know for a fact that X is scum". That's just not how my brain works.
Again he is trying to hide behind his confusion/newbieness. I find it suspicious how he keeps repeating how confused he is. Even if you are truly confused, why spend your energy explaining to others that you are a useless and confused townie? Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 05:43 vonKlaust wrote: I still have a feeling that Dittert is just a confused townie. I think the whole RNG-thing have been blown out of proportions and I think his weak case against Willz might have been rushed since he felt pressured to contribute to the scumhunt.
I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it.
HiroPro also comes across as a bit suspiscious. The way he has just popped in a couple of times. Both of the times short after someone called him out as lurking. It makes me feel he is actively lurking.
I would like HiroPro to write more, but for now I think I'll go with Xatalos as my prime suspect. That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going? ##Unvote ##Vote: vonKlaustI also definitely want HiroPro, Dittert, yomi and trumpetarn to post more. If you are town, there is nothing to lose by being active, and everything to lose by being inactive. There are 3 posts by vonKlaust quoted here. In none of these does vonKlaust actually mention the ArcticFox case, OR vonKlaust's suspicion of Xatalos. Xatalos's case was based on a completely different basis. This means that HiroPro DID dive into vonKlaust's filter. It is, once again, either exceptionally bad play or wilfull misrepresentation of vonKlaust. Misrepresentation is one of the worst scumtells in the game (or so I have been told by Bugs, who I trust on mafia matters).
Conclusion, Hiro is either playing negligently badly here, or he is willfully misrepresenting vonKlaust in the hope of making it stick. The reason I thought he could be town is because when his case had been destroyed, he was willing to kiss and make up. However, there's no reason a scumbag would want to be stuck tunneling on a case nobody believes. Especially when he realises that he has screwed it up pretty badly (as he clearly realised: we see that from the backpeddling and excusing himself).
He then lurks a bit until he can bandwagon on BroodKing. He NEVER takes a stance on Willz vs. Yomi, conveniently coming back from class after BroodKing has derped. Note the timing on the posts. He comes back from class in time to vote, but after it makes no difference anymore. It could of course be a complete coincidence, but it could also be a lurker coming out of hiding in order to vote and not get modkilled.
The only thing of use in his filter is the case on Xatalos, which I don't really have time to analyse right now. I need to post this in time to convince town that HiroPro is scum. Know at the very least, that even if the case is not misrepresenting Xatalos and is completely honest, the Dittert-HiroPro connection is pretty strong. Here are their mutual soft defenses: + Show Spoiler [Hiro-Dittert defenses] +On April 13 2012 06:49 HiroPro wrote:Dittert's posting is not that of mafia. He made a silly suggestion and then backed off it, much more indicative of inexperienced town.Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 05:01 Acrofales wrote: Please tell me who you think is scummy and why? Read better. Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 06:39 BroodKingEXE wrote: Hiro has offered nothing substantial as well, bandwagoning on the suspicions of Xatalos. Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious). Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 06:47 BroodKingEXE wrote:On April 13 2012 06:44 willz22912 wrote:On April 13 2012 06:39 BroodKingEXE wrote: We have to be careful about releasing scumlists though, as they give the mafia can use them to guide their KP. What do you mean by this? The idea of sharing scumlists is to build a consensus among town to reach a majority to successfully lynch someone. If multiple people think someone is scummy, there is a reason, and should be shared, even if it's misguided or incorrect because it builds/causes discussion. Mafia look at the scum lists and figure out who has the best sense of who they are. They then kill them This is beyond dumb. Why would mafia kill people who appear scummy. That does not hurt town in any way. If anything it helps town, by narrowing down possible people to lynch. On April 13 2012 06:54 HiroPro wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 06:49 Acrofales wrote: I think all our scum lists are quite similar at the moment. I have dittert as a scumspect and am not as suspicious of trumpetarm: I find dittert's few posts more suspect than trumpetarm's, who seems to at least be trying to contribute.
Why do you say that trumpetarm's post contribute more than dittert's? All he's said was that the pressure votes were useless and that Xatalos may be town or sneaky mafia. On April 13 2012 08:20 HiroPro wrote:Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 08:09 BroodKingEXE wrote:On April 13 2012 07:57 HiroPro wrote: What actually happened: 1. Xatalos made a case. 2. I supported the case. 3. I no longer supported the case. 4. I started to susspect Xatalos.
Alright, I see this. But if Xatalos is your main suspect, I'm still wondering why you never voted for him.
And by the way: First you voted Xatalos. Later you wrote: Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious).
Then, without ever writing anything about that you're starting to doubt your suspicions or anything along those lines: ##Unvote: Xatalos ##Vote: vonKlaust
Isn't this exactly what you're accusing me of?
1. Xatalos makes bad case. 2. I vote for Xatalos. 3. Broodking asks why I'm "bandwagoning Xatalos" (lololol) 4. I respond 5. Xatalos makes good case. 6. I trust Xatalos more and see similar suspicious behavior as Xatalos does in vonKaust. I vote for vonKlaust. The problem I have with your case against Xatalos was that Xatalos never had the bandwagon to begin with. People saw it as pretty useless information after they reread it, and it was pretty much dead from there. I viewed it as pure misguided case, I am wondering what made it different for you? What makes you think that Xatalos is more scummy than Dittert per say? Obviously I don't still view Xatalos as a mafia read. The reason why I first thought that Xatalos was more scummy in comparison to people like Dittert, was that Xatalos was an experienced player; it seemed unlikely that he would make a bad case like that. This is Dittert's first game; I would expect him to say something silly early on (RNG voting). Since then he hasn't yet posted much; so I can't really give much of a view on Dittert. On April 14 2012 07:51 HiroPro wrote: Willz - I agree with his logic about trumpetarm/dittert having similar posting early on, silly to differentiate between them. Seemed very logical about the dispute between myself and vonKlaust. kind of defensive about dittert's vote on him (seems overly bothered that someone might tunnel him), (especially considering that no one else seems to agree with Dittert's general reads/ideas). I like the fact that he was against broodking's idea of concealing scum reads. When it looked like he was going to be lynched though instead of seeming defensive, he was much more helpful for town (posting his general reads and talking about targets after he flips green)
Overall, I have a null read on willz; I don't like how he was so defensive about Dittert's vote on him (and the general weird interaction with him saying I'm just trying to help Dittert out), but at the same time he does post his opinions on other people and he has a general town demeanor by focusing on making/responding to cases.
BroodKingEXE - Early on spent a lot of time discussing policy - not much to read into him from that portion of the day. Makes a vote on Dittert without much of a case (based on Dittert voting for lurkers, not really something that is overly scummy). Argument about hiding scum reads very anti-town in my opinion; without sharing those reads, town cannot make good votes. Don't really understand why he wanted to consolidate voting so early. Unvotes Dittert when Dittert starts posting again. Votes for willz saying that he is trying to shoot down other people's posts and is denying open discussion (very strange in my opinion because BroodKing himself posted something similar saying that people should not give out scum reads because mafia might kill them). Voting for yomi because he says he doesn't want mafia to switch and swing the vote (even though he says that he believes willz is more likely to be scum).
Scum read on BroodKing overall - I don't like the posts where he says not to share scum reads. The vote and case on willz is very strange, since a lot of the things he accusses willz of are similar to what BroodKing himself has been doing, and I don't really understand the vote switch onto yomi - to me it seems more like BroodKing was worried that willz was looking townie to other people and thus switched to a new target.
yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion.
##Vote: BroodKingEXE Yeah, I know the last one is stretching it, but included for the sake of completenessOn April 16 2012 15:17 Dittert wrote:Acro - Like I said before, I don't really have too much of an idea about who is the 3rd mafia. My best guess right now is Xatalos, mostly because of this lie/misdirect: Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 07:12 Xatalos wrote: I'm mostly interested in ArcticFox's filter, because he was A) killed by Mafia, not town B) more contributive. I can see why they would choose to kill ArcticFox: his posting style is solid, convincing and logical. His top Mafia reads are yomi, HiroPro and Dittert - although you can't deduce too much from that, as they could have killed him just to cast suspicion upon these players. Even so, I would say the chances are high at least one of these players is Mafia. ArcticFox hardly mentions me and I don't think even mentions HiroPro at all (or maybe early on). If you read his filter and deduce these mafia reads, you need to go back to... reading school? He's also in here now completely shitting up the thread, drowning out what seems to be us on the right track. I'm curious to see why you're so suspicious of him as well. That being said, I could see it being one of these other people who are just not posting very much. I don't post that much, but I think by now most people can see my clear thought pattern since day one (okay, even if you don't think I'm thinking clearly, I'm at least being hyper-consistent). I read a lot of other people's filters and just kind of shrug. My interpretation of ArcticFox's reads: shot at night, so maybe look into Yomi, Willz, imallison, Xatalos. Slight suspicion of HiroPro as a lurker. The last is also a pretty soft defense, but it could be Dittert trying to avoid suspicion of HiroPro
PS. On a completely unrelated sidenote, I am getting pretty damned good at BBCode.
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