|
What I can't reconcile though is that rarely are scum so in-your-face as Cephiro is, and if they are they usually cause a lot of disruption. Cephiro doesn't seem to be trolling us or trying to cause disruption, and it's no secret there is a scum between him, syllo, and risk. In addition he has pointed out a couple of things that I don't think scum would have pointed out. It's true that he could be scum, and if he is, he's been playing very well so far.
The thing though is, IF he's scum, this is a very risky proposition for him, because it ensures he dies after syllo flips town. You agree with that? Now my question is, why would scum put themselves at such great risk just to trade 1 for 1 with someone else?
Worst IMO is that two of them die and flip town.
What's stopping me from pushing Cephiro is that the possibility of him having a scum role that benefits from this still exists. Based on the knowledge we have (which isn't much) it is a better proposition to simply straight up kill syllo, because we have no clue what pushing Cephiro will do. however the pushing of syllo relies on the assumption that syllo is scum, which makes Cephiro far more likely to be town. So in that case we should consider Cephiro is actually telling the truth and push him anyway. in other words, since the basic assumption is the same, it may be better to just push Cephiro after all.
|
Cephiro why is it that you cannot roleclaim if you want us to believe you are telling the truth?
|
There was a day roleblock on Palmar yesterday; what's to say that they can't use it again?
Or the freeze power?
|
Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro
|
On April 05 2012 03:03 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 02:56 wherebugsgo wrote: There was a day roleblock on Palmar yesterday; what's to say that they can't use it again?
Or the freeze power? the number of kills last night, unless we have an S.K.
Do you intentionally try not to make any sense whatsoever?
|
On April 05 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote: Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what?
I'm taking a risk, a potentially stupid one, but a risk nonetheless.
I am still open to pushing syllo rather than Cephiro and would support that idea. However if syllo is frozen we'll have to end up pushing Cephiro anyway.
I believe Cephiro is far more likely to be town than scum, and because of that I'm actually considering that it might be a better idea just to push him instead of pushing syllo.
Let's go over the 4 possible scenarios:
1. Cephiro is town and syllo scum. Then Cephiro should be telling the truth and we should probably push him because him lying would fuck us.
2. Cephiro is scum and syllo town. Pushing Cephiro to the last spot would allow us to kill him, so we should be pushing him.
3. Cephiro and syllo both scum: doesn't really matter who we push, does it?
4. Cephiro and syllo both town: we should probably be killing risk in this case, (who is notably still missing -_- But honestly I wouldn't put it past him, he's god awful as town) but pushing Cephiro is still a good idea.
In every case pushing Cephiro is beneficial to us.
|
you claim I scumslipped, but I think you just did BM rofl
That is the worst case of stretching I have ever seen.
|
like wtf, push someone you have a GREEN read on? Good god, what are you on?
|
On April 05 2012 03:15 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 02:46 wherebugsgo wrote: What I can't reconcile though is that rarely are scum so in-your-face as Cephiro is, and if they are they usually cause a lot of disruption. Cephiro doesn't seem to be trolling us or trying to cause disruption, and it's no secret there is a scum between him, syllo, and risk. In addition he has pointed out a couple of things that I don't think scum would have pointed out. It's true that he could be scum, and if he is, he's been playing very well so far.
The thing though is, IF he's scum, this is a very risky proposition for him, because it ensures he dies after syllo flips town. You agree with that? Now my question is, why would scum put themselves at such great risk just to trade 1 for 1 with someone else?
Worst IMO is that two of them die and flip town.
What's stopping me from pushing Cephiro is that the possibility of him having a scum role that benefits from this still exists. Based on the knowledge we have (which isn't much) it is a better proposition to simply straight up kill syllo, because we have no clue what pushing Cephiro will do. however the pushing of syllo relies on the assumption that syllo is scum, which makes Cephiro far more likely to be town. So in that case we should consider Cephiro is actually telling the truth and push him anyway. in other words, since the basic assumption is the same, it may be better to just push Cephiro after all. Okay, barring some extremely strange circumstance in which risk's roleclaim and the red traffic light are NOT the police car toy from DFM1, Cephiro is confirmed scum if Syllo flips town in any case and I don't think anybody is opposed to killing Syllo here and now. So I don't see how this plan by a scumbag is at all risky. So you actually wifom'd the wifom out of that in the subsequent part. Did you actually read that? I will condense the second part of your post for you: 1. Cephiro might be scum, which is a reason not to push him and just kill Syllo (okay so far) 2. However, that relies on the assumption that Syllo is scum (err, okay. I disagree. It will confirm him as scum. I think there's probably about 60-70% chance of him being scum at this point) 3. In which case Cephiro is town (errrmmm, okay, probably. You feeling the wifom yet? I am fairly certain that a smart guy would know that I would know that he would put the wine in front of me) 4. BUT THEN Cephiro is telling the TRUTH and he's town (lol, I am seeing Inigo Montoya's pokerface right now) 5. In which case we should comply with his plan (LOOK BEHIND YOU, A three-headed monkey! /switchcups)
It's not WIFOM at all unless you think a town Cephiro would be lying to us.
Pushing Cephiro is no-lose because if he's scum then we need to push him, and if he's town he wouldn't lie about us having to push him
|
On April 05 2012 03:19 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 03:15 wherebugsgo wrote:On April 05 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote:On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote: Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what? I'm taking a risk, a potentially stupid one, but a risk nonetheless. I am still open to pushing syllo rather than Cephiro and would support that idea. However if syllo is frozen we'll have to end up pushing Cephiro anyway. I believe Cephiro is far more likely to be town than scum, and because of that I'm actually considering that it might be a better idea just to push him instead of pushing syllo. Let's go over the 4 possible scenarios: 1. Cephiro is town and syllo scum. Then Cephiro should be telling the truth and we should probably push him because him lying would fuck us. 2. Cephiro is scum and syllo town. Pushing Cephiro to the last spot would allow us to kill him, so we should be pushing him. 3. Cephiro and syllo both scum: doesn't really matter who we push, does it? 4. Cephiro and syllo both town: we should probably be killing risk in this case, (who is notably still missing -_- But honestly I wouldn't put it past him, he's god awful as town) but pushing Cephiro is still a good idea. In every case pushing Cephiro is beneficial to us. You're assuming Cephiro has no ability that requires him to be in the danger zone. How are you so sure about that in cases 2 and 3 (I agree that 4 is unlikely) Cephiro won't do something wicked?
You could make that argument about anyone who is scum, but then how would we actually kill them?
Remember that if Cephiro could do something bad by getting to that zone we'd probably have to deal with it somehow anyway, at some point in the game. He even said he'd be fine with pushing syllo instead.
Occam's razor dictates we should just push him, because in all of the circumstances it's the simplest answer.
Our only problem would be nullfication, but that would happen even if we pushed syllo instead, I'd bet.
|
Also instead of pushing Tobon, I'd be completely fine with pushing BM instead. He's been on Mattchew-level of inactvity and very well could be scum over Tobon. As Tobon has only one game under his belt it could very well be that his lack of decisiveness is simply due to his newness. This is of course entirely impossible to prove without actually killing the guy, but BM using his PoPs on myself and Snarfs is inexcusable.
|
He chose to use his role.
Also we need your opinion quickly. Please read up :p I'm currently in favor of pushing Cephiro and pulling Bluelightz/BM.
|
On April 05 2012 03:39 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 03:37 wherebugsgo wrote: He chose to use his role.
Also we need your opinion quickly. Please read up :p I'm currently in favor of pushing Cephiro and pulling Bluelightz/BM. Yeah but he claimed to have no PoP at all when I asked him about if he has no PoP due to using a power or such yesterday. And even if he did that yesterday, he should have PoP today then, unless he has a power that neglects his PoP for the whole game. You seem fairly sure that he is of no danger to town though, am I right if I say that you have a rolecheck on him or are you just speculating?
No, I'm not sure at all and right now because he is confused why we are focusing on Bluelightz he actually looks fairly scummy.
Layabout you need to explain yourself, and probably also explain why you are defending BM right now rather than letting BM talk for himself. Why are you wondering why Bluelightz is taking pulls?
|
On April 05 2012 03:45 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 03:25 wherebugsgo wrote:On April 05 2012 03:19 Acrofales wrote:On April 05 2012 03:15 wherebugsgo wrote:On April 05 2012 03:07 Acrofales wrote:On April 05 2012 03:05 wherebugsgo wrote: Alright, I think this is the solution: we push Cephiro to the item slot. If he gets frozen, we push syllo (we should have enough to push both). Any remaining pushes will go on Tobon AFTER it is confirmed one or both of Cephiro+syllo is dead (hopefully syllo)
If the freezing power exists still, no matter who we push scum will freeze the player and make our efforts fruitless. Thus ultimately I imagine we'd need to push both players. If we push syllo and then scum freeze syllo, we then have to rely on Cephiro getting to the item, but if he's roleblocked at that point we lose even more pushes. If we force a roleblock on Cephiro then we can still pull him back to safety and push someone else toward the fire.
Anyone who does not push according to this plan at this point needs to have a very good reason for it. If you have questions, ask now. I intend for syllo, Bluelightz, and Tobon to all die today.
We can potentially swap Tobon for someone else like mattchew, prpl, or Wiggles, but I'd much rather push Tobon because Nemesis already started a push on him, and he is just as scummy.
Here goes nothing.
##push Cephiro I think I asked in time, but you pushed anyway. Why are you so extremely convinced of Cephiro's townieness? I'm way in favour of just straight lynching. The only thing we miss out on is an item. So bloody what? I'm taking a risk, a potentially stupid one, but a risk nonetheless. I am still open to pushing syllo rather than Cephiro and would support that idea. However if syllo is frozen we'll have to end up pushing Cephiro anyway. I believe Cephiro is far more likely to be town than scum, and because of that I'm actually considering that it might be a better idea just to push him instead of pushing syllo. Let's go over the 4 possible scenarios: 1. Cephiro is town and syllo scum. Then Cephiro should be telling the truth and we should probably push him because him lying would fuck us. 2. Cephiro is scum and syllo town. Pushing Cephiro to the last spot would allow us to kill him, so we should be pushing him. 3. Cephiro and syllo both scum: doesn't really matter who we push, does it? 4. Cephiro and syllo both town: we should probably be killing risk in this case, (who is notably still missing -_- But honestly I wouldn't put it past him, he's god awful as town) but pushing Cephiro is still a good idea. In every case pushing Cephiro is beneficial to us. You're assuming Cephiro has no ability that requires him to be in the danger zone. How are you so sure about that in cases 2 and 3 (I agree that 4 is unlikely) Cephiro won't do something wicked? You could make that argument about anyone who is scum, but then how would we actually kill them? Remember that if Cephiro could do something bad by getting to that zone we'd probably have to deal with it somehow anyway, at some point in the game. He even said he'd be fine with pushing syllo instead. Occam's razor dictates we should just push him, because in all of the circumstances it's the simplest answer. Our only problem would be nullfication, but that would happen even if we pushed syllo instead, I'd bet. Well, we could always pull him off the bottom. Anyway. You're making some sense now. I'm gonna go shopping and read Cephiro's filter again when I get back. I still don't think I'll help out, but I'll try to give the plan another shot and try to read it without paranoid glasses. More people whose judgement I trust posting would also help.
You're right, we could pull him, but I'd rather consolidate our pulls on Bluelightz.
|
By talking for him, what are you doing? All we've proved is that he isn't reading the thread and thus is as good a kill as anyone else.
In addition, you have nothing to lose by confirming that you have no PoP power by trying to pull Bluelightz and push syllo or Cephiro.
Again, care to explain why we shouldn't pull blue when you said yesterday if he uses his power he should be killed?
|
On April 05 2012 05:23 risk.nuke wrote: wbg I'm just actively lurking, haha <3
Don't worry though, I have a plan!
what's this plan?
Nemesis can you hold your push or push now before anyone else does? I'd rather you save your push for an emergency actually, to say, push someone other than Cephiro.
|
Stop derping around and focus on ONE pull target. That one target should be Bluelightz.
We split our pulls and then we won't get a flip from it. If we receive confirmation that Bluelightz has been killed, THEN we consider killing others.
|
On April 05 2012 06:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2012 01:11 wherebugsgo wrote: I'm at a cafe on my phone having breakfast (weird for me actually) but this is oddly relaxing.
Wait wtf Wiggles is suddenly against lynching Bluelightz?
What's with the meek response Wiggles? Why do you not want to see him flip immediately? You claim we should use our PoPs on other people but don't even offer one to begin with. The hell?
Bluelightz I really don't see how you could be town. If you actually are town you must be deficient of about 3/4 of the brain cells everyone else possesses, for reasons already mentioned several times (I.e. The position 24 bull) Why do you want to see him die immediately, especially since apparently the OP says that flips don't show up until the end of the day? When I saw that the queue was hidden today, I changed my mind a bit about Bluelightz. It doesn't make sense for him to claim his role, if he had foreknowledge that the queue would be hidden the next day. Not claiming his role, would have let him use his power and blow up potentially four townies, without us knowing anything about it, especially if scum can see the queue. If scum can't see the queue as well, then they wouldn't have used his power in the first place, since they can blow up from it themselves. At this point, we're limited in lynching by the number of pushes/pulls we have to pull people to the ends. This is especially exacerbated when we have people wanting to go for the item each day. This makes it so we have even less pushes and pulls to actually kill scum. So, in my mind, I'm willing to take the risk of leaving bluelightz alive today. If he lies about his bombs, we kill him instantly. If he's telling the truth, then we can get him to use his power again, and that will free up a lot of our pushes and pulls for other uses, like the items, or just killing a couple more people, since we can pull targets to the two bombed spots if they're close instead of all the way to the end of the queue. This would be for people who are not priority flips, but who we think are scummy enough to die. WBG, can you give me some concrete reasons for needing to flip bluelightz as soon as possible? So far you've just been running under your initial reason of him running away when pressured, but I haven't really seen much else since then, besides you calling him scum. Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 23:09 Acrofales wrote:On April 04 2012 22:59 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Has anybody claimed the kill on Palmar or Shrubbles yet? This is important to me. If you shot one of Palmar/Shrubbles, and haven't claimed yet, please do so. I won't be mad. I promise. Hi guys, I'm mafia fishing for a vigilante so I can shoot him tonight, but I won't be mad. I promise!!! Don't be silly. Firstly, most vigilantes are one-shot. Secondly, if this one isn't, we don't know that, so he could just claim one shot. So, why would I fish for what's essentially a VT now? Next, they need to claim their shot, or else I'm just going off the assumption that it was a scum kill, which changes how this played out. Shrubbles being shot by a vig makes sense, but him being shot by scum has some interesting implications. If we assume that there was a scum between Ceph, Syllo, and Shrubbles, then why would scum shoot Shrubbles? He was considered most suspicious after Syllo among the three, so if Syllo was the scum, then you're only hastening his death. If Ceph is the scum, then you ensure that Syllo will flip, though it lets us know that Ceph is the scum quicker as well. If there's no scum among the three, mafia know this, and shooting Shrubbles makes sure that we most likely lynch Syllo, and if he flips town, Ceph. Basically, it sends us on a wild goose chase. Can anyone answer why scum would shoot shrubbles when there's basically a list check that you're shortening by killing him? The only reasons I can think of, are that we're looking at the wrong person (syllo), or there isn't really a scum between the three of them. This is especially true considering the check doesn't confirm people as town, so lynching a scum out of them does nothing to clear the other ones, so it's not like scum had to worry about DT-checked townies or something like that. That no one actually questioned the kills is concerning.
key points:
Bluelightz's only defense of himself was "I'm town and this is a bad idea."
Bluelightz has not attempted to find scum and he has not attempted to even play this game. I see no reason to leave him alive.
The Bluelightz pulls have been coming in incredibly slowly and there has been resistance to it despite several players displaying stronger convictions earlier in the game. Players additionally keep moving to other subjects.
I want to have him killed sooner than later because it will allow us to consolidate our pulls on someone else afterward; either in case of an emergency, or to kill someone (such as syllo or Tobon) because Cephiro fails or something like that.
As for whether scum shot sbrubbles or not, sure, it's possible. If scum shot sbrubbles then there's a strong chance risk is the scum and not either of syllo or Cephiro. How do we find out though? We can't really, unless we kill one of them. We have no idea whether scum shot Sbrubbles or Sbrubbles died for other reasons. Maybe scum shot Sbrubbles and a town vig shot Palmar! Sure, it's less likely, but its still possible, right? See how fruitless these types of discussions are?
Sbrubbles could have tried to protect Palmar and then could've died like that. Let's find out if that's possible!
If a medic targets the mirror toy, will it result in the medic's death?
Lastly, why are you concerned that no one speculated about the night kills when we already considered the possibilities you brought up? You aren't the first to attempt to address those concerns, and certainly you don't advance the discussion by acting as if we're in a dire situation of sorts because we aren't considering all the possibilities.
Trying to speculate why Bluelightz would claim his role as scum or town is as equally fruitless as trying to figure out who shot whom last night. I can think of a great reason that doesn't depend on his alignment, and that's that Bluelightz is stupid.
|
On April 03 2012 00:40 Bluelightz wrote: Also, I seem to have misunderstood my role PM, so, 1 of 3 positions that will. Be announced with the day post will be booby trapped, the positions are randomized.
The lie is here.
I see no reason for anyone as town to ever use this role. If I got this role myself I would not use it unless I was scum.
As scum sometimes it's easier to claim your actual role instead of faking it under pressure, which could potentially explain why he would claim it as scum. Who knows at any rate; Bluelightz has long enough played against a town wincon this game that he should die.
At this point I have no clue why layabout or wiggles are defending bluelightz, but the change of heart in layabout particularly intrigues me.
|
On April 04 2012 09:49 MrZentor wrote:First I'll discuss why we didn't get anything done the first day, then how we should fix it, and finally, who to kill. The first half of the day went pretty well. We discussed how we should vote, if Palmar should get the item, and a few suspicions. It started to fall apart when some people started pulling Palmar to the item before we had decided if that was a good idea. The second day was chaos. There were tons of roleclaims. People wasted their PoPs. Risk.nuke said at least one of sbrubbles, syllogism, and Cephiro was scum. Palmar got stuck at the top. The town got together and saved Palmar at the cost some PoPs. They tried to lynch the three people risk.nuke had said, but because they couldn't decide on who to kill, it was a no lynch. Finally, mafia got VE into the redzone. Now the mafia have another kill, and we don't have much information. We need to decide on what people we're going to kill before we start pushing them, so no PoPs get wasted. In fact, I don't want to see any PoPs on the first half of the day unless you're sure you won't be able to be there during the second half of the day, or we agreed to use some PoPs to get the item or to confirm a role claim. A PoP is best used near the end of the day, because it's when you have to most information. I probably sound like a huge hypocrite saying this when I didn't use my PoPs yesterday, but I had planned on being able to get on the computer yesterday, and the events that arose were unforeseeable.
Of cephiro, syllogism, and sbrubbles, cephiro seems the most innocent. He has been extremely active and has been very cooperative. His overreaction to the idea of Palmar getting the item is a little suspicious. Sbrubbles started by lurking, but recently he has been active and made some good posts. Syllogism is the scummiest. He threw away his vote and spent several pages bickering with WBG.
Right now I'm a little suspicious of Tobon; I'll probably post a case on him when I've had more time to digest the information.
Show nested quote +On April 04 2012 08:09 Acrofales wrote: EBWOP: MrZentor is back. Hope more activity means we can expect a clarification on why you didn't PoP. In case you missed my other post or the beginning of this post, I had a bunch of crazy stuff come up, so I didn't have access to a computer to PoP.
This is a great post by Zentor that does a whole lot of absolutely nothing.
I agree that Zentor looks pretty bad and we should consider killing him as well.
|
|
|
|